The Bears O-Line will be a lot better this season. He's got a good chance at 10+ TDsI don't see Forte hitting double digit TD's... he has been poor at the goal line his whole career.
The Bears O-Line will be a lot better this season. He's got a good chance at 10+ TDsI don't see Forte hitting double digit TD's... he has been poor at the goal line his whole career.
I don't think so. Why would the bears not continue to use Michael Bush inside the 3? He's a great short distance runner, one of the best in the league, and maybe most importantly it takes wear and tear off Forte who is much better in space and as a receiver.The Bears O-Line will be a lot better this season. He's got a good chance at 10+ TDsI don't see Forte hitting double digit TD's... he has been poor at the goal line his whole career.
Projecting career highs is not a smart way to rank players.The Bears O-Line will be a lot better this season. He's got a good chance at 10+ TDsI don't see Forte hitting double digit TD's... he has been poor at the goal line his whole career.
Agreed, Forte will be more relevant, just not inside the 5.Projecting career highs is not a smart way to rank players.The Bears O-Line will be a lot better this season. He's got a good chance at 10+ TDsI don't see Forte hitting double digit TD's... he has been poor at the goal line his whole career.
I'm not sure that's the right question to ask, although it's a reasonable one.I don't think so. Why would the bears not continue to use Michael Bush inside the 3? He's a great short distance runner, one of the best in the league, and maybe most importantly it takes wear and tear off Forte who is much better in space and as a receiver.The Bears O-Line will be a lot better this season. He's got a good chance at 10+ TDsI don't see Forte hitting double digit TD's... he has been poor at the goal line his whole career.
Nor is averaging career stats.Projecting career highs is not a smart way to rank players.The Bears O-Line will be a lot better this season. He's got a good chance at 10+ TDsI don't see Forte hitting double digit TD's... he has been poor at the goal line his whole career.
Noone is suggesting you don't... so start there and read the post above you.. specifically:How is not looking at career stats from a 5+ year guy not an incredibly smart thing to do. If nothing else it gives you a baseline to start with
If you see a back with crazy receiving skills and reliable but underwhelming pure rushing production who is suddenly in line to be the focus of a Marc Trestman offense with lots of new and improved blockers, you'd be silly not to project him for career highs in receptions and TD's. (See also, Trent Richardson, 2013.)
Who did that?Projecting career highs for a player across the board is Insanity. Especially for a first year coach.
By this rationale, no one should predict "breakout" WRs or significant stats for RBs taking over for departing vets.Projecting career highs for a player across the board is Insanity. Especially for a first year coach.
You can't just use Garner like that. Gannon was playing at a much, much higher level than we've ever seen Cutler play at. And they had 3 really good wrs in Rice, Brown and Porter. That Raider offense was incredible that year.If Charlie Garner can rack up 1900 yards from scrimmage and 11 total TDs (7 rushing) under Trestman in Oakland when he was 30, I'd wager a bet that Forte can equal those numbers this year.
And that's an RB1.
As far as projecting career highs, if someone said "Hey Charlie Garner will set career highs in yards from scrimmage and total TDs when he's 30" they'd get laughed out of the room too.
Until it turns out they were right.
One of these Jerry's was really good. The other one, well thats probably the first time he's been called really good.You can't just use Garner like that. Gannon was playing at a much, much higher level than we've ever seen Cutler play at. And they had 3 really good wrs in Rice, Brown and Porter. That Raider offense was incredible that year.If Charlie Garner can rack up 1900 yards from scrimmage and 11 total TDs (7 rushing) under Trestman in Oakland when he was 30, I'd wager a bet that Forte can equal those numbers this year.
And that's an RB1.
As far as projecting career highs, if someone said "Hey Charlie Garner will set career highs in yards from scrimmage and total TDs when he's 30" they'd get laughed out of the room too.
Until it turns out they were right.
He was the perfect 3 on that team. He may have had 10 tdsOne of these Jerry's was really good. The other one, well thats probably the first time he's been called really good.You can't just use Garner like that. Gannon was playing at a much, much higher level than we've ever seen Cutler play at. And they had 3 really good wrs in Rice, Brown and Porter. That Raider offense was incredible that year.If Charlie Garner can rack up 1900 yards from scrimmage and 11 total TDs (7 rushing) under Trestman in Oakland when he was 30, I'd wager a bet that Forte can equal those numbers this year.
And that's an RB1.
As far as projecting career highs, if someone said "Hey Charlie Garner will set career highs in yards from scrimmage and total TDs when he's 30" they'd get laughed out of the room too.
Until it turns out they were right.
Gannon was playing at a much, much higher level than we've ever seen Gannon play at, too. In fact both Gannon and Garner had career years in 2002. I suggest it is not a coincidence that this happened in the one full and healthy year both played with Trestman, and that this fact ought to be given some consideration.You can't just use Garner like that. Gannon was playing at a much, much higher level than we've ever seen Cutler play at. And they had 3 really good wrs in Rice, Brown and Porter. That Raider offense was incredible that year.If Charlie Garner can rack up 1900 yards from scrimmage and 11 total TDs (7 rushing) under Trestman in Oakland when he was 30, I'd wager a bet that Forte can equal those numbers this year.
And that's an RB1.
As far as projecting career highs, if someone said "Hey Charlie Garner will set career highs in yards from scrimmage and total TDs when he's 30" they'd get laughed out of the room too.
Until it turns out they were right.
I think the Gannon thing had alot to do with Gruden as well.Gannon was playing at a much, much higher level than we've ever seen Gannon play at, too. In fact both Gannon and Garner had career years in 2002. I suggest it is not a coincidence that this happened in the one full and healthy year both played with Trestman, and that this fact ought to be given some consideration.You can't just use Garner like that. Gannon was playing at a much, much higher level than we've ever seen Cutler play at. And they had 3 really good wrs in Rice, Brown and Porter. That Raider offense was incredible that year.If Charlie Garner can rack up 1900 yards from scrimmage and 11 total TDs (7 rushing) under Trestman in Oakland when he was 30, I'd wager a bet that Forte can equal those numbers this year.
And that's an RB1.
As far as projecting career highs, if someone said "Hey Charlie Garner will set career highs in yards from scrimmage and total TDs when he's 30" they'd get laughed out of the room too.
Until it turns out they were right.
maybe but it is better than if he had been pulledA run at the 3 really isn't a goal line carry anyway (a goal line carry is the same as a short yardage carry, except that it is at the goal line instead of 3rd and 1 or 2, so only a run from the 1 or 2 is really a goal line carry), so jumping to the conclusion that Forte is suddenly gonna be the Bears goal line guy is quite a leap.
lolA run at the 3 really isn't a goal line carry anyway (a goal line carry is the same as a short yardage carry, except that it is at the goal line instead of 3rd and 1 or 2, so only a run from the 1 or 2 is really a goal line carry), so jumping to the conclusion that Forte is suddenly gonna be the Bears goal line guy is quite a leap.
wtf?A run at the 3 really isn't a goal line carry anyway (a goal line carry is the same as a short yardage carry, except that it is at the goal line instead of 3rd and 1 or 2, so only a run from the 1 or 2 is really a goal line carry), so jumping to the conclusion that Forte is suddenly gonna be the Bears goal line guy is quite a leap.
Very true. But I will still be surprised if Forte is their main ball carrier when they get to the 1 or 2 or in other short yardage situations, especially when they have a guy like Bush who has been pretty effective for them in those situations.maybe but it is better than if he had been pulledA run at the 3 really isn't a goal line carry anyway (a goal line carry is the same as a short yardage carry, except that it is at the goal line instead of 3rd and 1 or 2, so only a run from the 1 or 2 is really a goal line carry), so jumping to the conclusion that Forte is suddenly gonna be the Bears goal line guy is quite a leap.
For them who? The them who call the plays are the same them who looked at a team in Oakland where their little speedy back had 1 rushing TD the year before, and the big bruisers had 11, and made the little speedy guy the first option near the GL. Bush hasn't had any of that success yet for this group of "them," but he does fit the profile of guys Trestman has told to take a seat in the past because of his limited skillset.Very true. But I will still be surprised if Forte is their main ball carrier when they get to the 1 or 2 or in other short yardage situations, especially when they have a guy like Bush who has been pretty effective for them in those situations.maybe but it is better than if he had been pulledA run at the 3 really isn't a goal line carry anyway (a goal line carry is the same as a short yardage carry, except that it is at the goal line instead of 3rd and 1 or 2, so only a run from the 1 or 2 is really a goal line carry), so jumping to the conclusion that Forte is suddenly gonna be the Bears goal line guy is quite a leap.
Because the person who says crap like this doesn't draft Drew Brees in 2006 when that first year coach Sean Payton comes over, and he throws for 4400 yards and 276 passing YPG (both career highs).Projecting career highs for a player across the board is Insanity. Especially for a first year coach.
This will be Forte's 6th year. In Garner's 6th year he put up 1764 total yards.A second year player is a little different from a six year vet no?
That's sort of his thing. Pantherclub will poo-poo most any hyped player not named Cam Newton.Projecting career highs is not a smart way to rank players.
pantherclub said:So once again you are bettting, gambling if you will, that Matt Ryan will have his far and away best year yet. That my friend is not a sound strategy in my opinion for fantasy football.'Stinkin Ref said:man.... now I feel like I have to explain Projections 101 or some ####....it's obviously depends on what you project for him compared to other QB's...getting 1st or 2nd round QB PRODUCTION in the 4th is value....if you don't think he is going to put up numbers like the top QB's then it's not value..."if's" are a huge part of this hobby....if you think he is going to put up Rodgers/Brees/Brady type numbers and he does....getting him 2+ rounds after those guys is value....'pantherclub said:Taking him in the 4rth is not "value"There are a whole lot of ifs in your post above'Stinkin Ref said:uhh...noif he gets you 1st or 2nd round QB numbers....getting him in the 4th is a steal....'lbouchard said:Taking Ryan 4th round negates the whole purpose of waiting on QB
the word "waiting" doesn't really mean ####.....value is the only thing you care about.....
if Ryan goes for 4800/40 and you get him in the 4th.....thats pretty solid....
this is what I don't get...people say "I'm going to wait on a QB"...well...seriously WTF does that really mean...?
you don't "wait" just to "wait"....
most of the time it means they are going to "wait until the 6th round" or some crap....whatever
it's all about value....and if you think you can get 1st or 2nd round QB value in the 4th, you have to take a look at that....those are players outperforming their draft positions which is exactly what you want...."waiting for Rivers in the 6th" means nothing if he performs at 6th round QB value....
"wait" all you want...I'll take value and kick your ###.....
pantherclub said:This is a great post and one of the main reasons this board is the best for fantasy. Having said that for me making a strategy about the draft I tend to not draft people assuming they are going to have career years to justify where I pick them in the draft. Thats a good way to tank your season. Sure the high risk/high reward style works in fantasy but it also can implode your team from a talent perspective. IMO the best way to build a team is to accumulate as much proven talent as you can and hope the ball bounces your way a few times during the year. Drafting people expecting career years (which is what you are assuming above) is just not a method that I have found consistent to winning.'karmarooster said:I don't get why this is such rocket science. Over the last two seasons, Ryan's 2010 and 2011 seasons rank #12 and #13 in pass attempts (568 and 565). The Falcons are already a passing team. Ryan's YPA increased from 6.5 to 7.4... maybe something to do with Julio Jones? If Julio is beast this year, and the defense has to pick its poison between him and Roddy White in single coverage, Ryan's YPA must be at least 7.5. There are only 11 QBs in the last two seasons who have attempted more passes than Ryan. Among them, Schaub threw for 4,350; Rivers for 4,600; Eli for 4,900. I'll avoid the Brady/Brees/Stafford/Manning numbers because they are elite and Ryan is not elite. Yet in Julio's rookie year, Ryan has already thrown for 4,100 yards. The Falcons will throw the ball more this year, conservatively 5% more. That's 596 pass attempts. Give him his 62% completion percentage (because as mentioned above, he's a decent quarterback, but not great). 596 attempts x 7.5 YPA = 4,470 yards. He's also put up 340 yards in about 3 quarters of pre-season running the shotgun no huddle offense. Julio and Roddy have put up numbers with him last season, and so far in the preseason. He's done it, he's doing it now, and he's going to do more. I'd say you have to look pretty hard to find reasons not to think that Ryan is at least going to be about QB6, with QB3-4 upside.
I understand the principle, but if you never expect a player to produce his best year, then you then miss out on every career year. We get that there's risk involved in expecting a player to have his most yards, most TDs, or best average. But every single player has a best year at least once.pantherclub said:So to justify that then you are banking on a career type year. While it may happen it still is not a good fantasy strategy to use. If he would go in the 2nd then I would like to see how the next few rounds move. Would people make a run on QB's pushing players further down? Probably.'jaylasoul14 said:I completely agree, my friends and i are 17 year ff experts, 1st place is almost 40k, and the whispers around my league is Ryan is going late 2nd/ early 3rd now :(
OAKLAND, Calif. -- With every attempt, Matt Forte’s confidence grows in his club’s zone-blocking schemes, which allow the running back to showcase some of his best attributes.
Over his past four quarters, Forte has averaged 10.7 yards per attempt, and he finished with 76 yards on six attempts Friday in the Chicago Bears' 34-26 win against the Oakland Raiders.
“What makes the zone blocking good is those linemen get push off the ball,” Forte said. “When they can do that, I can be patient and just sit back and read the blocking. So [while] there’s a place where the play is designed to go, you can just use your vision. If I want to, I can cut it all the way back. Or I can just pick a hole. That’s what makes it so nice.”
Success with the rushing attack also tends to open up the passing attack. Forte rushed for 15 yards on three attempts during Chicago’s first offensive series Friday. On the first play of the second series, Bears quarterback Jay Cutler popped up and hit Forte on a short pass to the right side, and the running back romped 32 yards for a touchdown.
“What’s most impressive is the blocks he got on the perimeter on that touchdown by [receiver] Alshon [Jeffery] and [tight end] Martellus [bennett],” Bears coach Marc Trestman said. “Matt’s an all-purpose player. He’s a three-down player. He can run. He’s a very good pass-receiver, and it just helps spread the field even more with the players that we have.”
Cutler called Forte “scary out there” on the field.
“I think he’s getting more and more comfortable with the running lanes, the blocking schemes we’re putting him in,” Cutler said.
Forte has rushed for 150 yards on 14 attempts over the club’s past two exhibition outings.
“We’ve got to expect to come out and play like that every game, and not just because we had a couple big plays and a couple nice runs we get all out of control like, ‘We’ve arrived as an offense,’” Forte said. “We’ve still got a lot of work to do. We’re looking forward to getting better every week.”
Matt Forte rushed 19 times for 50 yards and a touchdown and caught four passes for 41 yards in the Bears' Week 1 win over Cincy.
Forte found little room to run against the Bengals' insanely talented front seven, but remained effective in the pass game and scored a touchdown from one-yard out on a shotgun handoff. He was NOT vultured by Michael Bush, which is promising for Forte's going-forward outlook. Expect 20-24 touches in Week 2 against the Vikings. Forte is a top-15 fantasy running back weekly.
Forte + GL work = $91 total yards and a TD against a good defense? Yeah, I'll take that.
More importantly, he's looked really good on those touches.Forte looking like a top 5 fantasy back this year, getting tons of touches.
Coach Marc Trestman told reporters Monday that Michael Bush will be the Bears' goal-line back going forward.
Matt Forte has scored each of his two early-season touchdowns on runs from or inside the five-yard line, but when the Bears are at the opposing one, Bush is going to get the call in most situations. "We’ve kind of isolated and declared Michael our goal-line running back," said Trestman. Fantasy owners can't depend on random week-to-week goal-line scores, leaving Bush as a mere handcuff. It could cost Forte TD chances over the course of the year, but Forte is playing too well for it to matter. He's the No. 5 fantasy back through three games.
Source: Rich Campbell on Twitter
Definitely a bummer and a head scratcher at the same time. Bush looked like he was running in mud out there last night and I feel like Forte has looked darn good at the GL this year (much better then in years past). Oh well.Rotoworld:
Coach Marc Trestman told reporters Monday that Michael Bush will be the Bears' goal-line back going forward.
Matt Forte has scored each of his two early-season touchdowns on runs from or inside the five-yard line, but when the Bears are at the opposing one, Bush is going to get the call in most situations. "We’ve kind of isolated and declared Michael our goal-line running back," said Trestman. Fantasy owners can't depend on random week-to-week goal-line scores, leaving Bush as a mere handcuff. It could cost Forte TD chances over the course of the year, but Forte is playing too well for it to matter. He's the No. 5 fantasy back through three games.
Source: Rich Campbell on Twitter
I thought the exact same thing. From a non-fantasy perspective this makes little to no sense to my eyeballs.Definitely a bummer and a head scratcher at the same time. Bush looked like he was running in mud out there last night and I feel like Forte has looked darn good at the GL this year (much better then in years past). Oh well.Rotoworld:
Coach Marc Trestman told reporters Monday that Michael Bush will be the Bears' goal-line back going forward.
Matt Forte has scored each of his two early-season touchdowns on runs from or inside the five-yard line, but when the Bears are at the opposing one, Bush is going to get the call in most situations. "We’ve kind of isolated and declared Michael our goal-line running back," said Trestman. Fantasy owners can't depend on random week-to-week goal-line scores, leaving Bush as a mere handcuff. It could cost Forte TD chances over the course of the year, but Forte is playing too well for it to matter. He's the No. 5 fantasy back through three games.
Source: Rich Campbell on Twitter
I'm sure I'm just overacting, but I hate how Trestman is basically saying "Hey opposing defensive coordinators out there, if we're at the goalline and you see Michael Bush in the backfield, go ahead and stack the line."Rotoworld:
Coach Marc Trestman told reporters Monday that Michael Bush will be the Bears' goal-line back going forward.
Matt Forte has scored each of his two early-season touchdowns on runs from or inside the five-yard line, but when the Bears are at the opposing one, Bush is going to get the call in most situations. "We’ve kind of isolated and declared Michael our goal-line running back," said Trestman. Fantasy owners can't depend on random week-to-week goal-line scores, leaving Bush as a mere handcuff. It could cost Forte TD chances over the course of the year, but Forte is playing too well for it to matter. He's the No. 5 fantasy back through three games.
Source: Rich Campbell on Twitter
Prior to last game, Forte had 3 runs and 1 reception from inside the five. Bush had no touches from that close.I'm sure I'm just overacting, but I hate how Trestman is basically saying "Hey opposing defensive coordinators out there, if we're at the goalline and you see Michael Bush in the backfield, go ahead and stack the line."Rotoworld:
Coach Marc Trestman told reporters Monday that Michael Bush will be the Bears' goal-line back going forward.
Matt Forte has scored each of his two early-season touchdowns on runs from or inside the five-yard line, but when the Bears are at the opposing one, Bush is going to get the call in most situations. "We’ve kind of isolated and declared Michael our goal-line running back," said Trestman. Fantasy owners can't depend on random week-to-week goal-line scores, leaving Bush as a mere handcuff. It could cost Forte TD chances over the course of the year, but Forte is playing too well for it to matter. He's the No. 5 fantasy back through three games.
Source: Rich Campbell on Twitter
If anyone out there has the number of carries within the 5 between Forte and Bush, I would love to see them. In the meantime, my memory seems to recall Forte getting those touches this year rather than Bush, so for now it's a bit hard to really buy this.