Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Matt Ryan most important player in your FF draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ppierce
- Start date
pantherclub
Footballguy
I took it as he was just comparing the stats of each qb and basically saying he wasnt/isnt as good as the other dudes. Nothing mental about it.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
It makes sense if Ryan does finish that high and wouldn't be there in the 4th. If you think he'll produce worthy of that pick and won't be there for your next pick, you should take him.Is that too much risk for me? Sure. But I'm not going to criticize someone who is willing to accept that risk. Fortune favors the bold, as they say.'pantherclub said:
Isn't there risk in waiting on a QB? If you wait, the QB you end up with BETTER live up to or exceed the pick you burned to get him. And the player you took earlier in lieu of QB had BETTER live up to that pick value as well. So then it's still just a matter of accurately predicting what a player will do.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
What do Ryan's stats against the Giants' D have to do with Eli's stats against the Falcons' D?Why not compare their best games against each other? Or worst games against each other? Or performances against like opponents? Or just season total stats?If he narrowly singles out the stats from those games, it necessarily follows that he thinks they are meaningful to his argument.Hey, the guy could be right in his conclusion. But that doesn't mean his reasoning is sound. It may just be the case of the blind squirrel finding the nut.
Last edited by a moderator:
Zackattack
Footballguy
He just went in the 4rth round. Forget that man. I took Rivers in the 6th makes much more sense.
LawFitz
Footballguy
It depends on how you feel about Ryan. If you're in the camp that he's about to ascend to top 5 QB status, then 4th round was a steal while 6th round for a guy who will likely get matched by 8th-10th rounders like Big Bum and Cutler might have been the reach.I'm not saying you're absolutely wrong. But there is another side to this coin.
VaTerp
Footballguy
In mocks from the 3 spot I was routinely getting Ryan at 6.10 a week or two ago. I then started taking him in the 5th and didnt feel too bad. Now in the 4th, it does become a different ballgame as I like taking Rivers, Romo, or Manning later. Or if you have to, even waiting on Culter or Big Ben.Ryan this year is a clear example of why I like auctions better than drafts. I don't mind bidding a little more for Ryan in an auction where I can be more creative and flexible with how I build my team. In a snake, the impact of these decisions are magnified as taking Ryan in the 4th means you're almost definitely missing out on someone else you want.It's all relative as his price could sky-rocket in an auction too. When he gets put up for bid will be very interesting and key in auctions this year.
karmarooster
Footballguy
I don't quite get the fixation on 4th round vs. 5th round vs. 6th round, as different leagues value QBs differently (4pts, 6 pts, 20 yards, 25 yards, etc.), so the more relevant inquiry should probably be what number QB is Ryan being drafted in these drafts?
I have him as QB7, after Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Cam, and Vick,.
Even if you get him in the 4th round, as QB7 or 8, he COULD still be a value. The round doesn't tell you everything you need to know.
I have him as QB7, after Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Cam, and Vick,.
Even if you get him in the 4th round, as QB7 or 8, he COULD still be a value. The round doesn't tell you everything you need to know.
Last edited by a moderator:
habsfan
Footballguy
I got him at 6.11 last night (from the 2 spot).
uhh...noif he gets you 1st or 2nd round QB numbers....getting him in the 4th is a steal....the word "waiting" doesn't really mean ####.....value is the only thing you care about.....if Ryan goes for 4800/40 and you get him in the 4th.....thats pretty solid....this is what I don't get...people say "I'm going to wait on a QB"...well...seriously WTF does that really mean...?you don't "wait" just to "wait"....most of the time it means they are going to "wait until the 6th round" or some crap....whateverit's all about value....and if you think you can get 1st or 2nd round QB value in the 4th, you have to take a look at that....those are players outperforming their draft positions which is exactly what you want...."waiting for Rivers in the 6th" means nothing if he performs at 6th round QB value...."wait" all you want...I'll take value and kick your ###.....
pantherclub
Footballguy
Taking him in the 4rth is not "value"There are a whole lot of ifs in your post above
We Tigers
Footballguy
Well, if you really think Ryan is going for 4800/40, take him wherever the heck you want. However, what I and others have argued here is that we don't see a whole lot distinguishing him from Eli, Peyton, Romo, Rivers, etc. If you grab him a couple rounds ahead of all those guys, I think Matt Ryan's "that was a great pick!" threshold goes up around 400 yards and 6+ TDs from where expectations were a week or two ago.(These, of course, are two different arguments, so there may be some discussing-past-each-other going on here.)
man.... now I feel like I have to explain Projections 101 or some ####....it's obviously depends on what you project for him compared to other QB's...getting 1st or 2nd round QB PRODUCTION in the 4th is value....if you don't think he is going to put up numbers like the top QB's then it's not value..."if's" are a huge part of this hobby....if you think he is going to put up Rodgers/Brees/Brady type numbers and he does....getting him 2+ rounds after those guys is value....
pantherclub
Footballguy
So once again you are bettting, gambling if you will, that Matt Ryan will have his far and away best year yet. That my friend is not a sound strategy in my opinion for fantasy football.
sorry to use this little word again....but IF you don't see him producing anymore then those guys then there is no reason to draft him a couple rounds earlier....but fact is, he won't be there anymore around where those oher guys are being drafted....it is starting to look pretty clear that people are expecting a huge year....so what you have to ask yourself is...how huge is huge.....if it's huge like Rodgers, Brees, Brady type stuff....then a 4th round pick on him is a steal/value....this is VBD stuff....if he can "wash" the points put up by the big boys and you can get him two plus rounds later....the thought is, you are then able to seperate yourself from the other teams at the other positions putting you ahead....
pantherclub
Footballguy
on the flip side however, if he produces like a 5th/6th round pick like his past stats suggest, then you are way behind the 8ball in regards to making up points because you are essentially trying to get 2nd round points from a 6th round pick (assuming you pick ryan in the 2nd). The player and points you miss out on is incredibly significant if Ryan doesnt produce. What we are saying is you are projecting him to have these outrageous stats and its just not smart VBD drafting as you say.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Why do you guys insist on debating 4th round vs. 5th round, etc., in a vacuum.... his order among the QBs is more important! Anyone see him go ahead of Vick as QB6?
Matt Ryan could be like this years Jimmy Graham....many people saw a huge year coming from Graham last year while a good portion did not want to get on board and still felt like he should be taken after or in the neighborhood many of the "old reliables"....those owners that "reached" for Graham a little...or in other words gambled on him having that huge year....were paid off nicely....he didn't come at a top TE price, but there was just enough buzz about him that you had to pull the trigger a little earlier on him than were his ADP might indicate....and a little early then "those other guys"....
this hobby is filled with if's and gambles.....those are usually the type of things that help put teams over the top and win championships...if not, we would just draft everybody in order of their ADP ranking and hand the trophy to the guy whose ADP numbers add up to be the lowest....
pantherclub
Footballguy
I think you have that backwards chief. By this logic you are willing to buy into position runs. YOu have to think that the top 5 qb's will be gone by the end of the 2nd. The the second tier on deck. Lets say someone takes Vick in the early 3rd, do you now panic and reach for a qb in the 3rd that you had targeted in the 4rth/5th etc? If so then you are again leaving a ton of value on the board for someone else to sweep up. Getting caught in runs is the best way to nuke your draft.
We Tigers
Footballguy
Sure, but that's implicit. If you argue that he's ahead of the Mannings/Rivers/Romo pack, he is at least QB7.
karmarooster
Footballguy
My point is that in a league with 6 point TDs, and 20 yards per point, QBs are much more valuable than in a league with 4 points and 25 yards. And in 2QB leagues, they are the arguably the most important position. If Vick goes in the 3rd round, it could be a (justifiable) positional run. And yes, Vick is my cue to grab Ryan. Chief.
pantherclub
Footballguy
So you would be willing to draft Ryan 2-3 rounds higher than he is normally going based on other people choosing a position. Not sure how long you have been playing but trust me this is not a good habit to get into. As we said before, there is a lot of value you are skipping out on if Ryan doesnt perform like a top qb.
I'm not sure I understand what you're point is? What you say is true of every player you could select. People are drafting Brady in the first on what I personally think are outrageous projections. But if they think those projections are accurate then they must grab him in the first to assure that they get him on their team. VBD drafting is all based on projections and the value of drafting as such is only as good as the projections you have. If you expect Ryan to have Rivers/Romo/Manning #'s but think he has the upside of a Rodgers/Brady/Brees, then I think selecting Ryan 2 rounds ahead of Rivers/Romo/Manning ISN'T good drafting. If you expect Ryan to have #'s closer to Rodgers/Brady/Brees but think he has a floor of Rivers/Romo/Manning, then drafting 2 rounds after Rodgers/Brady/Brees IS good drafting.
never said anything about taking Ryan in the 2nd.....
that wouldn't be value even if he did put up round two QB type numbers....but if you took him in the 4th....and he put up round 2 QB type numbers....that is most certainly value....
and to address your last sentence about outrageous stats....that is more you having a problem with my projections....not my understanding of VBD....
this stuff is not isolated to Ryan...it's every player
my point is that it is pretty obvious based on his rising ADP that people are expecting him to have his best season yet....and you can no longer get him where you have in the past....so it is not only me that is not expecting him to just have years like he has had in the past....it is the FF community....anybody that doesn't see that he really should have a better year than what he has in the past is just crazy....the key is deciding how big of a jump you think he will make..this year....right now....you want to capitilize on any value he may still have this drfating cycle....it doesn't do us any good to be having these conversations after the fact....people are trying to say that he no longer presents value....well that may or may not be the case....it just depends on how huge YOU think he will go this year....
so for me...personally I think he goes way big....4800/40 type stuff...so he would represent value in the 4th...you disagreeing means you don't like my projections.....not that he isn't value if that happens...
Not necessarily. Like rooster said, it's a cue. If Ryan in generally QB7 and after 4 rounds Vick still hasn't been taken, you might want to roll the dice and try to get Ryan in round 5 instead of taking him round 4. If Vick has been taken, you know if you want Ryan you probably need to grab him now. You keep mentioning that the top 5 QB's are being taken in 1st 2 rounds. But in something like the FFPC, that's not true. In fact, I've seen a bunch where Brees has lasted to the top of the 3rd. And Newton and Stafford in the 4th. So scoring definitely makes a difference.
kinda of a
I agree that the "what round" discussion isn't really a huge part of this....so many things factor into that, draft slot, etc....big difference between having to take a guy at like 3.01 knowing full well he won't make it back to 4.12....or doing something in between....it IS about where you think he will perform against other QB's and where you think you can draft him...
karmarooster
Footballguy
Exactly. You have to tailor your draft to the scoring and format, and that occasionally means adjusting positional values against each other. Sometimes it means taking several QBs in the first round (start 2QB or super-flex league), and sometimes it means prioritizing other positions in things like FFPC/FBGs leagues. And besides, the where Ryan "is normally going" is probably based on your experience on FantasyFootballCalculator in generic mock drafts. You have to consider factors like the number of teams in the league, the number of starting RBs and WRs, and the QB scoring itself. Of course, if there is a strange positional run that doesn't make sense given the above factors, then yes, it's always possible to bypass the QB and scoop value at another position. MY POINT was that you shouldn't consider this completely removed from context by simply saying "4th Round?!?!"
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Dunno, I think calling a prediction of 600 pass attempts "conservative" is a stretch when it's only been done about 25 times in NFL history, and is about 100 attempts over his career average. Yardage-wise, he's never "done it" to the level you are are projecting. Rivers has "done it". Manning has "done it". Romo has "done it". Eli has "done it". Ryan has not "done it", you just think he will. And that's OK, you could well be right.
but Ryan represents the most value before he does it....not after
bagger
Footballguy
not really if someone like cam newton last year went so late. you dont to pay for a top 5 qb to get a toop 5 qb.
karmarooster
Footballguy
If you're looking at Ryan's career average of pass attempts, it mean's very little from when he was a rookie, 2nd year, etc. The most relevant number of pass attempts would probably be the last two seasons (in the 560s). And yes, 600 pass attempts is not 'conservative'... what I meant was that projected Ryan to have 5% more pass attempts than the last two years (because of the personnel they have with WRs/TE). Going up to the 590s is conservative in that context.
Johnny Rock
Footballguy
This is where I'm at too. I just don't see him as being that great. Decent NFL QB? Yes. I haven't seen him play "that" much but I can't think of a less deserved moniker than "Ice."I'll wait for true value to emerge later.
Magic Football Shoes
Footballguy
Ice's value isn't in his arm...it in his teammates. Best WR tandem since Fitz/Boldin and a HOF TE? He can close his eyes, throw the ball and still end up with more TD's than INT's.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Merely 'Decent NFL QBs' have put up great fantasy stats over the last few years on a few occasions, typically when they have elite WRs and a pass-first mentality.
Eli - 4,900 yards in 2011
Schaub - 4,700 yards in 2009
Rivers - 4,700 in 2010
Romo - 4,400 yards in 2009
Schaub - 4,350 yards in 2010
Big Ben - 4,300 in 2009
Ryan himself, 4,100 yards, in Julio's rookie year in 2011...
Eli - 4,900 yards in 2011
Schaub - 4,700 yards in 2009
Rivers - 4,700 in 2010
Romo - 4,400 yards in 2009
Schaub - 4,350 yards in 2010
Big Ben - 4,300 in 2009
Ryan himself, 4,100 yards, in Julio's rookie year in 2011...
shadyridr
Footballguy
cuz his adp is steadily climbing
With all the building hype,Im gonna be disappointed if Atlanta doesnt outscore Green Bay fantasy wise!!!
Last edited by a moderator:
simey
Footballguy
I think those QBs are better than "decent".
karmarooster
Footballguy
I can't win here. I was looking for guys outside of the top 3 Elite category of Rodgers/Brady/Brees.
Typically, Eli and Big Ben are regarded as very good real life QBs (probably because of Superbowls), but not considered excellent/Elite for fantasy purposes. The same has been said of Ryan, although obviously without the superbowls. Romo and Rivers have been regarded as pretty good fantasy QBs who have not cut it in the postseason. Ryan has been put in the same category because of the past two years in the playoffs (although without the demonstrated fantasy success...yet). Side note - real life playoffs do not affect fantasy playoffs. And Schaub has never been considered much more than a pretty good aka decent QB but not excellent or elite. But he does have Andre Johnson and before the emergence of Foster, had an OC committed to throwing the ball.
My point was that non-elite QBs have produced excellent stats. Ryan doesn't need to be an actually great QB to put up 4,500 and 30.
Typically, Eli and Big Ben are regarded as very good real life QBs (probably because of Superbowls), but not considered excellent/Elite for fantasy purposes. The same has been said of Ryan, although obviously without the superbowls. Romo and Rivers have been regarded as pretty good fantasy QBs who have not cut it in the postseason. Ryan has been put in the same category because of the past two years in the playoffs (although without the demonstrated fantasy success...yet). Side note - real life playoffs do not affect fantasy playoffs. And Schaub has never been considered much more than a pretty good aka decent QB but not excellent or elite. But he does have Andre Johnson and before the emergence of Foster, had an OC committed to throwing the ball.
My point was that non-elite QBs have produced excellent stats. Ryan doesn't need to be an actually great QB to put up 4,500 and 30.
Last edited by a moderator:
LawFitz
Footballguy
I don't think even the most ardent Ryan enthusiasts are arguing that he's going to outscore Rodgers/Brady/Brees.
But, I think the hopeful crowd is projecting a decent probability that he'll push into the Stafford/Newton tier.
4500/35 TD range. That would more than justify a 4th round pick just ahead of or behind Vick as QB6 or 7.
But, I think the hopeful crowd is projecting a decent probability that he'll push into the Stafford/Newton tier.
4500/35 TD range. That would more than justify a 4th round pick just ahead of or behind Vick as QB6 or 7.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Considering 4 out of the 6 were were Top 10 overall picks, I'd have to agree.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Ryan himself was the number 1 overall pick. What is this supposed to mean? That Ryan has the same talent pedigree of Eli/Rivers? Yes, he probably does. I meant "decent QB" for fantasy purposes. The point was that Ryan can do what these guys have done.
karmarooster
Footballguy
From Football outsiders: "Ryan seems to improve just a little bit each year. The big change last year was more responsibility at the line of scrimmage, with the Falcons using a no-huddle offense out of three-receiver sets more and more as the season progressed."
His DVOA has gone up from 12% in 2009, to 18% in 2010, to 18.7% in 2011. He ranked 7th last year in DVOA (value per pass), and 6th in DYAR (total value).
FO has him projected at 4,216 yards, 31 TDs.
His DVOA has gone up from 12% in 2009, to 18% in 2010, to 18.7% in 2011. He ranked 7th last year in DVOA (value per pass), and 6th in DYAR (total value).
FO has him projected at 4,216 yards, 31 TDs.
bagger
Footballguy
if neil rackers is being taken in the first round are you going to reach for him there too?
silentcoach
Footballguy
Because I never gave my predictions, here they are:
Ceiling: 4750 pyds and 36 tds
Base: 4450 pyds and 30 tds.
Where that ranks... is up to you.
BUT he sure seems like a safe qb to grab.
Ceiling: 4750 pyds and 36 tds
Base: 4450 pyds and 30 tds.
Where that ranks... is up to you.
BUT he sure seems like a safe qb to grab.
Last edited by a moderator:
Similar threads
