Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Maurice Drew next year? Top 5-8? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Da Guru
- Start date
cowboyz
Footballguy
:11: 
i'm really amazed at his power, when he gets hit he goes forward, too bad he only gains half a foot falling forward though.
i would suspect they use greg jones a lot next year to replace fred taylor. but who cares, MJD is doing perfectly fine just like MB3. I doubt he increases his touches. So top 10 outcome, but top 5 needs 300+ carries and he's not going to get that.
i'm really amazed at his power, when he gets hit he goes forward, too bad he only gains half a foot falling forward though.
i would suspect they use greg jones a lot next year to replace fred taylor. but who cares, MJD is doing perfectly fine just like MB3. I doubt he increases his touches. So top 10 outcome, but top 5 needs 300+ carries and he's not going to get that.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
I agree about his power, but he can take it to the house from anywhere on the field as well.:11:i'm really amazed at his power, when he gets hit he goes forward, too bad he only gains half a foot falling forward though.i would suspect they use greg jones a lot next year to replace fred taylor. but who cares, MJD is doing perfectly fine just like MB3. I doubt he increases his touches. So top 10 outcome, but top 5 needs 300+ carries and he's not going to get that.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Top 5-8? Heck, I'd probably take him #3 right now, possibly even #2 over LJ. He's incredible. He has breakaway speed, great power, and defenders just can't tackle him. He's one of those rare guys that probably doesn't need a great O-line to make big plays.
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Soooo... add Bulger and the Vikings D to those guys, and you want to guess whether I won today?Hey, thanks for referencing that old thread. I just learned something. In post #3 of that thread, Mario Kart said:"Im on board. I am really hoping to draft him at pick 1.12 in the MOX I rookie draft this coming weekend. I am sure he will fall to 12."
I'm in that league, and he must have changed his mind. MJD did drop to 12 but Mario Kart traded up to take another player, and the new guy at 12 needed a QB so he took Cutler. That left MJD to yours truly to add to LT and SJax, making him a very nice flex player for this #1 seeded playoff team this year.
mlball77
Footballguy
I have been a MJD doubter much of the season, but having watched him play today; he's legit, imho. I don't see any real reason why he can't be in the second tier of RBs after LT and LJ in 07. He is compact, has speed and surprising power, and seems to have good hands. I really like what I've seen from him and think his future is very bright.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Had a decision week 1 of the playoffs. Play MJD against Indy, with Freddy getting majority of carries, or TJ against the Rams on Monday night. Went with TJ. Of course MJD goes off, including after Freddy T gets injured. Still could have won if TJ gets 24 more yards. Of course he tweaks his ankle after going for 54 and a TD on two plays and never plays a down the rest of the game. So, I get beat. Would have won last week, and then today in the Superbowl I have MJD go off, LJ, Marvin, etc. Instead of about $3K I get zero because I didn't play MJD. The worst part is I paid $150 in a free agent bidding war for the little ******* earlier in the year. Should have played him for that reason alone!
my man otis
Footballguy
No way over LJ and SJax. #4 is the absolute peak, and even there he won't provide enough value as there would be huge expectations.Great game by him bodes very well for 2007. Taylor's cap number is pretty managable next year so I think he'll be there, but MJD is looking like he could be the Gore of 2007.
flooredyas
Footballguy
Never too early to talk in terms of next year. For me, he'll be my rookie keeper, at the cost of a 2nd round pick. Probably win my game this week, albeit for 3rd place, riding him and SJax. Would have been for all the marbles, however Freddy going down last week caused me to lose by 3-141 to 138.
Funny, I drafted Maroney with the rookie keeper in mind in round 6 yet acquired Drew in part of a trade for Heap, sobeit.
Funny, I drafted Maroney with the rookie keeper in mind in round 6 yet acquired Drew in part of a trade for Heap, sobeit.
Phlash
Footballguy
He's 105 yards away from cracking 1K rushing this season O_O
He only has 154 carries this season. And 5.8 yards/carry. And has only rushed 20 or more times in a game twice. Yet he somehow has 12 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs. If this guy got the workload he would be a monster, considering Fred Taylor already has 224 carries for 1120 yards at a solid 5 ypc. Jones has a VERY good O-line right now and is electrifying, so it should be no suprise that he's tearing it up now.
He only has 154 carries this season. And 5.8 yards/carry. And has only rushed 20 or more times in a game twice. Yet he somehow has 12 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs. If this guy got the workload he would be a monster, considering Fred Taylor already has 224 carries for 1120 yards at a solid 5 ypc. Jones has a VERY good O-line right now and is electrifying, so it should be no suprise that he's tearing it up now.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
MJD has some freakish legs. I haven't seen legs that freakish since Barry Sanders. They are like 3 times the size of a normal human leg. Those things are like the hydraulic shocks for a monster truck.
Ok I'll stop checking out other men's legs now. But he does remind me of Barry Sanders a bit. I'm just saying...
Ok I'll stop checking out other men's legs now. But he does remind me of Barry Sanders a bit. I'm just saying...
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Seriously tho, he has the body and quickness of Barry, the all around game and cutting ability of Faulk, and the running style of power back. He has an amazing ceiling. I really wish he didn't break out this big. I saw he was special earlier in the year, but he is completely exposed by now. He's a top 6 pick IMO.
LBH
Footballguy
I agree with you. Its hard to argue with 15tds and a game to go, while playing as a back up for a lot of the year. I watched him pretty closely this week , and he does a really good job gaining 2-3 yds when hit at the line or in the backfield. I like his prospects for next seasonPros Cons1. Break away speed 1. Durability not really known yet2. Nose for the end zone 2. legs so wide, he looks kind of funny when he runs3. dual threat 3. unknown roles of FT,GJ 4. toughness5.youth6. productive in a limited role7. behind an aging RB with injury history8. #7 RB in my league right now
Last edited by a moderator:
Ilov80s
Footballguy
How good has Mojo been in 06? He has certainly made the most of every touch.
MOJO
6.7 yards per touch
TD on 7% of his touches.
LT
5.8 yards per touch
TDs on 8% of his touches
LJ
4.8 yards per touch
TD on 4% of his touches
SJax
5.3 yards per touch
TD on 3% of his touches
Gore
5.8 yards per touch
TD on 3% of his touches
Bush
5.3 yards per touch
TD on 3% of his carries
MB3
5.7 yards per touch
TD on 10% of his carries
MOJO
6.7 yards per touch
TD on 7% of his touches.
LT
5.8 yards per touch
TDs on 8% of his touches
LJ
4.8 yards per touch
TD on 4% of his touches
SJax
5.3 yards per touch
TD on 3% of his touches
Gore
5.8 yards per touch
TD on 3% of his touches
Bush
5.3 yards per touch
TD on 3% of his carries
MB3
5.7 yards per touch
TD on 10% of his carries
The Football Freak
Footballguy
If you adjust MJD's numbers to the 275 range, assuming he is starting, his numbers would look more like 1595 rushing for 21 TD's and 54 receptions for 540 yards and 2-3 TDs. I used his 1 TD per 12.8 rushes and 1 TD per 21 receptions stats from his play this year. Those are pretty lofty numbers, but when the ball is in his hands he simply produces at a very high level. Even if Fred comes back, he is going to see 200 touches, which using this years stats, would project out to 1160/16 rushing and 540/2-3 receiving to put him comfortably in the top 5.
If they can get him to 300 carries he could be straight up scary. He is a special runner who can run up the gut, bounce it outside, or catch a pass, and he has a very solid offensive line in front of him. I think he is going to be showcased next year like him to finish top three no matter where he is drafted.
If you are in a league that awards PPR and/or KR and PR yardage, he is worth his weight in gold.
If they can get him to 300 carries he could be straight up scary. He is a special runner who can run up the gut, bounce it outside, or catch a pass, and he has a very solid offensive line in front of him. I think he is going to be showcased next year like him to finish top three no matter where he is drafted.
If you are in a league that awards PPR and/or KR and PR yardage, he is worth his weight in gold.
fsufan
Footballguy
One of the announcers of the Monday Cowboys/Eagles game said they talk to Westbrook and he said the game is not about size any more it is about speed.
On The Rocks
Footballguy
I selected MJD with my 23rd round pick this season which allows me to use him as my carry over in the 10 round slot next year.
MJD 2007 10th round pick = Nicey Nice Value!
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
the guy is 7th this year. he has 154 attempts. he is top 5 next year. rudi johnson cant hold his jock.
The Football Freak
Footballguy
At 5'7 and 212 he has a low center of gravity and power as well. He will be special.
Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
Is Mo-Jo getting GL carries this year with Greg Jones around?
Banger
Footballguy
what has Jones done to warrant any kind of GL consideration whatsoever? Drew is a fireplug and will get the ball and Jones will be lucky to be on the roster.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Jones was looking great until the injury. Just because Del Rio has a shiny new nickel doesn't mean he'll cut Jones. Drew had a fluky good season. Jones is way bigger as well. But to answer your question.Greg Jones Week 10 vs. BAL Qtr Time Score Down/Dist Yardline Description 1 14:16 0 - 0 2nd-and-8 opp 45 rushed for 5 yards 1 12:49 0 - 0 4th-and-1 opp 38 rushed for 0 yards 1 4:33 0 - 3 1st-and-5 own 42 rushed for 9 yards (first down) 1 3:58 0 - 3 1st-and-10 opp 49 rushed for 2 yards 2 13:15 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 22 caught pass for 7 yards 2 12:35 0 - 3 2nd-and-3 own 29 rushed for 4 yards (first down) 2 12:18 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 33 rushed for 0 yards 2 9:47 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 35 rushed for 20 yards (first down) 2 9:05 0 - 3 1st-and-10 opp 45 rushed for -1 yards 2 7:43 0 - 3 1st-and-10 opp 32 rushed for 0 yards 2 6:58 0 - 3 2nd-and-10 opp 32 target of incomplete pass 3 12:31 10 - 3 2nd-and-15 own 39 rushed for 8 yards 3 9:24 10 - 3 1st-and-10 own 8 rushed for 5 yards 3 8:50 10 - 3 2nd-and-5 own 13 rushed for 3 yards 3 6:56 10 - 3 2nd-and-5 own 26 rushed for 4 yards 3 2:26 10 - 3 2nd-and-1 opp 1 rushed for 1 yards TOUCHDOWN 3 0:37 17 - 3 1st-and-10 own 42 rushed for 4 yards 4 14:50 17 - 3 1st-and-10 opp 36 rushed for 4 yards 4 13:49 17 - 3 2nd-and-11 opp 37 rushed for 17 yards (first down) 4 13:06 17 - 3 1st-and-10 opp 20 rushed for 3 yards 4 12:19 17 - 3 2nd-and-7 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards 4 9:41 20 - 3 1st-and-10 own 46 rushed for 14 yards (first down) 4 8:53 20 - 3 1st-and-10 opp 40 rushed for -2 yards 4 5:59 20 - 3 1st-and-10 own 38 rushed for 1 yards 4 5:14 20 - 3 2nd-and-9 own 39 rushed for 2 yards 4 3:42 20 - 3 1st-and-10 opp 17 rushed for 2 yards 4 3:29 20 - 3 2nd-and-7 opp 7 rushed for -1 yardsBanger said:
DenverBroncos
Footballguy
MJD will not finish in the top 15 RB's for the next 3 seasons. Mark it down and put it in your sig to prove me wrong if you dare.
Banger
Footballguy
and that was the best game in his career, 25-106-1. He's a 3.5 ypc back while F. Taylor averaged 4.6 at the same time. I don't think he'll be cut but there's a better chance that he gets cut than there is that he will cut into Drew's carries.ETA...I don't think Drew will finish top 5-8, I just don't see Jones being a factor at all in the Jags running game.
Last edited by a moderator:
Wadsworth
Footballguy
Jack Del Rio said his toughest day as a head coach was the day Greg Jones injured his knee last year. Del Rio went on to talk about what a hard working and talent player Jones was as well as a great example and locker room guy. Greg Jones was also playing at a near Pro Bowl level at fullback before the injury so any part-time RB duty was just a bonus. How in world you'd even think Jones would be "lucky" to make the roster I have no idea. Maybe lack of fantasy success for Jones had made some people ignore the great deal of NFL success Greg Jones has enjoyed. Greg Jones is a lock to make the roster. Time will tell how many short yardage/redzone carries he steals from MJD, but the idea that his roster spot is in danger is laughable.Banger said:
duaneok66
Footballguy
amen . . .
Last edited by a moderator:
CA_7
Footballguy
Are you providing any reasoning for this is or is it one of those good ole gut feelings that we should all take to the bank?
bonesman
Footballguy
i dared.
DenverBroncos
Footballguy
Good man.
Football Menace
Footballguy
I've been looking for info on the Jags RB situation. Any insight from the Jacksonville homers?
CA_7
Footballguy
Interesting that Jags resigned Toefield in April. Jags have Fred, MoJo, Toe, Greg Jones and Pearman... Doubt both Toefield and Pearman make it of camp but seems like JAX likes having a lot of weapons at RB. Either way, Fred and MoJo will get 90% of the carries, just interesting to see what happens at the GL.
I think a lot of MoJo fans seem to forget that Taylor is still the #1 RB on JAX's depth chart and he averaged 5.0 ypc. MoJo is a great NFL back but in 2007 he will be competing for carries and he hit a lot of home runs in 06, can you always count on that in fantasy?
I see MoJo in the 15-20 range for RBs in 2007 and vaulting in the top 10 in 2008 when Fred possibly retires.
I think a lot of MoJo fans seem to forget that Taylor is still the #1 RB on JAX's depth chart and he averaged 5.0 ypc. MoJo is a great NFL back but in 2007 he will be competing for carries and he hit a lot of home runs in 06, can you always count on that in fantasy?
I see MoJo in the 15-20 range for RBs in 2007 and vaulting in the top 10 in 2008 when Fred possibly retires.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
vs Baltimore though, gotta like that.
Here's a percentage of carries inside the opponent's 10-yard line that resulted in a TD last season.
SAlexander- 54.5%
Tomlinson- 52.3%
Corey Dillon- 50%
Jones-Drew- 46.7%
BJacobs- 45%
Barber III- 39.4%
RJohnson- 34.7%
FWPaker- 35.3%
LJohnson- 33.3%
SJackson- 26.7%
And these are the best goal-line backs in the entire NFL. Also, in 2005, Greg Jones had 2 TDs in 11 attempts (18.2%), and in 2004 that was 3 TDs in 9 attempts (33.3%).
Could someone please explain to me, in very small and easy-to-understand words, why on earth Jacksonville would take GL carries from MJD, one of the best goal-line RBs in the entire NFL, and give them to Greg Jones, a guy with a 25% career TD rate at the goal line? I mean, other than the fact that Greg Jones weighs like 300 pounds, of course. Jones-Drew weighs about as much as Shaun Alexander and Tomlinson, and more than Priest Holmes. And they don't call him a human bowling ball because he's rotund.
SAlexander- 54.5%
Tomlinson- 52.3%
Corey Dillon- 50%
Jones-Drew- 46.7%
BJacobs- 45%
Barber III- 39.4%
RJohnson- 34.7%
FWPaker- 35.3%
LJohnson- 33.3%
SJackson- 26.7%
And these are the best goal-line backs in the entire NFL. Also, in 2005, Greg Jones had 2 TDs in 11 attempts (18.2%), and in 2004 that was 3 TDs in 9 attempts (33.3%).
Could someone please explain to me, in very small and easy-to-understand words, why on earth Jacksonville would take GL carries from MJD, one of the best goal-line RBs in the entire NFL, and give them to Greg Jones, a guy with a 25% career TD rate at the goal line? I mean, other than the fact that Greg Jones weighs like 300 pounds, of course. Jones-Drew weighs about as much as Shaun Alexander and Tomlinson, and more than Priest Holmes. And they don't call him a human bowling ball because he's rotund.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
There is only 1 RB that will take carries from MJD (GL or otherwise), and that man is Fred. I think Greg Jones is awesome, but I just don't see him taking GL duties away. MJD finished as RB8 in my league last year. This year, I think he drops down to around RB10. His TD's will decrease to around 10, but his carries will go up.
BigJim®
Footballguy
I've passed on 2 very lucrative trades for him. I recommend moving him if you can get a great deal now and are unconvinced; he's a definite hold to me. There's no way Taylor dips into MJD's totals anymore this year than last. As for Greg Jones, please.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Similar situation here and no way I am moving MJD right now. If Reggie Bush put up anywhere near the numbers Drew did, he would be a lock for a top 5 pick and currently being hailed on ESPN as the second coming of Jesus.
Banger
Footballguy
My analogy was overstated (and I clarified it in later posts) and like I said I don't believe that Jones will be cut but I think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever that Jones makes a dent into Jones-Drew's carries/goal line action. If anything they will give Jones-Drew the ball more and Taylor less and as SSOG pointed out he was among the top goal line runners in the league last year. So the thought that Jones who had limited success in a handful of opportunities would take carries from Jones-Drew is equally laughable.
I like MJD's story as much as the next guy but you need to learn to temper enthusiasm in fantasy football. It's awesome if you burned a late pick on MJD last year...in fact congratulations. However, I would be wary of spending a 1st round pick on a RB who is going to be in a committee. Just my opinion though.
CA_7
Footballguy
I am on board that MoJo is a great NFL back and is going to be a top 10 fantasy RB very soon but let me play devils advocate for a bit....
Fred Taylor is approaching 10,000 career yards and top 20 RB status (based on rushing). This means he can push for the Hall of Fame.
Yes, players and coaches will tell you it is only about the team and winning the Superbowl is their only goal, but Jacksonville is a very good team and if they are winning games I see them giving Fred the ball a lot to get the numbers he needs. Yes, they won't want to over utilize him to risk injury but if they can win games and get Fred closer to HoF credentials don't you think Del Rio will? How many productive years does Fred really have in the tank?
There are also loyalty factors involved if the vet is being productive. It isn't always about who is the most talented player. A few years back didn't Carolina play Stephen Davis a ton when we all thought (at the time) Deshaun Foster was the better back.
Just a thought....
Fred Taylor is approaching 10,000 career yards and top 20 RB status (based on rushing). This means he can push for the Hall of Fame.
Yes, players and coaches will tell you it is only about the team and winning the Superbowl is their only goal, but Jacksonville is a very good team and if they are winning games I see them giving Fred the ball a lot to get the numbers he needs. Yes, they won't want to over utilize him to risk injury but if they can win games and get Fred closer to HoF credentials don't you think Del Rio will? How many productive years does Fred really have in the tank?
There are also loyalty factors involved if the vet is being productive. It isn't always about who is the most talented player. A few years back didn't Carolina play Stephen Davis a ton when we all thought (at the time) Deshaun Foster was the better back.
Just a thought....
Last edited by a moderator:
dparker713
Footballguy
Don't see how these numbers are relevant. 10 yards is too far out to really be considered goalline. 5 yards maybe, but 2 or 3 is really what you should be comparing.SSOG said:
