Situation matters a lot more than silly parallels are and anecdotal stories.
I think people are only trying to point out that RBs that were at one time worthy of being first round picks in the NFL will likely get a second chance somewhere even if they washed out with the team that drafted them.That's all (imo) that these Lynch, Benson, Thomas Jones parallels are attempting to show. Anyone thinking that no NFL team is going to give Medndenhall a chance at a starting spot is being shortsighted. Whether you think he'll do anything with that chance depends on how good you think Mendenhall is, and how good his future situation will be.
Had a typo of my own there. Meant to say "and". Anyway, I think it is easy to throw out names of 1st round picks who had slow starts, but put it together later. I'm sure the list is MUCH longer of first round picks that fizzled out. As far as production per touch, Mendenhall hasn't been relevant for 3 years. Unless he finds a team that's willing to give him 250+ touches, he's not going to be worth his draft pick. There will be plenty of people chasing his previous totals that will bump his ADP up if it looks like there's a chance he could emerge as the starter for his team. If he gets himself into a true competition, I'm all about drafting the other guy late. At this point, I really think Mendenhall is an average NFL back, so it shouldn't be hard to beat him in a fair competition. And I don't mean average starter, but average RB.
Situation deosn't matter nearly as much as you think. In just about every case, Thomas Jones, Ced Benson, McGahee, Moreno, Lynch, Henry they all went to a crap situation and had to bide their time as they were only signed for depth. Lynch was really the only exception to that and most still felt he was on a bad team. He had 2 good games for the Seahawks and that thunderous run in the playoffs the year they traded for him but still no one paid him any mind the next year in drafts because of the poor state of the offense. No one is looking for an RB1 here, just to pick up on some undervalued assets. EBF is onto something with this, theyre all former 1st rounders that washed out with their first team, but he's going about it all wrong paying rb2 prices.
If situation doesn't matter then why did LT go from 3.3 ypc on SD to 4.1 ypc on the Jets a year later? Situation certainly does matter and it matters way more than the SP realizes. However, I agree that Lynch's situation didn't get much better in the year he was traded, and it showed. His ypc wasn't great. But he was still talented and so they gave him the ball. He ran hard. He didn't dance in the backfield and over use the spin move like someone else.But let's quickly debunk the idea that all those first rounders disappointed on their first team and then dazzled while in "crap" situations:
-Thomas Jones went from crappy Arizona and Tampa teams (where he never got more than 138 carries) to a decent Chicago team (where he averaged 19 rushes per game for 3 years) to a great Jets rushing offense and his stats went accordingly. He was also signed to be the guy his first year, then they drafted Benson.
-As for Benson, all he had to do was get his head on straight (or straight enough). He blew it in Chicago (although never got 200 carries) and found a team dedicated to the run and earned his way on a 1 year contract.
-Moreno is still on the team that drafted him. I got him for free this year so I'd like to see him do well, but his production per touch was not actually very impressive. His name doesn't belong on this list.
-Travis Henry was always productive when given a chance (aside from his rookie year - a rough 3.4 ypc). He was just a headcase and got booted out of Buffalo when McGahee made him redundant. As soon as he got a chance on Tennessee (a very solid running team at the time), he was good again.
-McGahee did about as good as Henry did in Buffalo, then had a nice backup season behind Ray Rice (everyone's ypc on that team blew up one year, even FB McClain), then he benefited from a nice situation in Denver.
None of these guys regressed like Mendenhall did from season 2 to seasons 3 and 4 (I'll give season 5 a pass due to the ACL). Also, I'm not seeing a single case of a guy going from a good situation (like Mendenhall had in his 3 years of heavy usage in the well above average Pit offense) to a worse situation. So I've got to strongly disagree. Situation does matter. If Mendenhall goes to Atlanta and only has the way over hyped, below average runner Quizz to fight for carries, then by all means, buy. He won't do much more than 2012 Turner, but 250 carries in that offense - it won't matter if you're average. The stats will come. But if he goes to KC to split with Charles or maybe Arizona, then stay away. He clearly doesn't have what it takes to produce on his own.
Haha, yeah, you're struggling here. Tomlinson had a three year pattern of really good, incredible, average. Mendenhall now has a four year pattern of really good, average, average, meh. Great comparison, guy. So through 5 years, he's had one good season despite the fact that he's been given every opportunity to succeed on a team that, as a whole, has been very successful. In his five years, the Steelers haven't had a losing record. They are 53-27 in the regular season and 5-2 in the playoffs. If you want to blame the o-line, use that as an excuse, but Dywer had as many 100-yard games this year in just a few starts as Mendenhall did in his last full season.YPC isn't the whole story, but it tells the tale of Mendenhall pretty well. A guy who got a first round pick's workload and did a 4th round pick's job with it. And that's why he won't be back in Pit. They've already got a couple average backs on the cheap who won't have bad attitudes or tweet idiotic things.
I was hoping to bring it up in the future and get more great comments about 20/20 and seeing an eye doctor.
Ironically one of the best places he could land is with the team he will be leaving...
