Mendenhall (1 Viewer)

[gdg76]

Having gone to Illinois and lived in Pittsburgh, I'm glad I can finally divest my interest in Mendenhall. Just have to get him off one more fantasy team so hopefully I can find someone else who thinks he can be a like a phoenix rising from Arizona.

I'd be surprised if at this point in his career he can beat out Williams or any other warm body they put out there. Also still can't get over him humping Ben during a game...

 

[ShaHBucks]

Sure, so there was no relation between the passing attack and his TD totals. Total fluke. LT would've rushed for 27 TDs with Skelton instead of Brees.

Uh, LT ran for 28 TD's once in his career. That was in 2006. That was Brees' first year with the Saints. In 2006, the Chargers QGB was Phillip Rivers who had less passes, less yards, lower completion percentage and lower TD's than Brees had in 2005 and LT's rushing TD's went up from 18 to 28.

This isn't an LT situation, here, though.We're talking about a guy who won't get many receptions, and whose per touch numbers aren't likely to be above average. He'd need 250 carries to get 1,000 yards, at 4 a pop. That's 6.25 points/game. The rest of his value is going to come from TDs. He's not LT/ADP and is not going to create many TDs out of nothing. The Cardinals are going to have to move the ball in the redzone for him to get TDs. That's where the passing game comes into play. That's why the NE offense has turned Stevan Ridley and BJGE into TD machines - it isn't their offensive line and commitment to the run; it's Tom Brady and Company moving the ball all over the field. We understand that MJD, ADP, LT2, etc have produced while lacking quality QB play. But you're talking about Hall-of-Famers. Where are our 4YPC, 2.5/yr guys who score top 10 fantasy numbers without at least average QB play?

So what's the consensus? Who cares about Beanie and LT2, is Mendy gonna be golden or what?

I was all-in until they cut Kolb. Kolb isn't the greatest but I'm sure he can keep defenses off of Mendenhall if need be. That move made NFL/economic sense, but usually when you get rid of your starting QB you're rebuilding. Thats bad new for a team producing yards/td's like the debate is leaning towards now. The only bright side is its a one year deal from a dynasty perspective. I know when to fold my hand...

 

[rct]

So what's the consensus? Who cares about Beanie and LT2, is Mendy gonna be golden or what?

I was all-in until they cut Kolb. Kolb isn't the greatest but I'm sure he can keep defenses off of Mendenhall if need be. That move made NFL/economic sense, but usually when you get rid of your starting QB you're rebuilding. Thats bad new for a team producing yards/td's like the debate is leaning towards now. The only bright side is its a one year deal from a dynasty perspective. I know when to fold my hand...

Kudos to you, it is rare when someone who has staked out a strong position on a player can actually have a different perspective based on new information.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Having gone to Illinois and lived in Pittsburgh, I'm glad I can finally divest my interest in Mendenhall. Just have to get him off one more fantasy team so hopefully I can find someone else who thinks he can be a like a phoenix rising from Arizona.

I'd be surprised if at this point in his career he can beat out Williams or any other warm body they put out there. Also still can't get over him humping Ben during a game...

Had totally forgotten about that.

 

[cstu]

Having gone to Illinois and lived in Pittsburgh, I'm glad I can finally divest my interest in Mendenhall. Just have to get him off one more fantasy team so hopefully I can find someone else who thinks he can be a like a phoenix rising from Arizona.

I'd be surprised if at this point in his career he can beat out Williams or any other warm body they put out there. Also still can't get over him humping Ben during a game...

Had totally forgotten about that.

 

[FF Ninja]

When my two year old can't take something for another second he bangs both eyes with the back of his fist and yells 'stop, stop, stop.' It's hysterical!But it turns out that it actually kind of hurts if you try it as an adult, so I went and got some data instead.Using every season between 2002 and 2012, I ran a simple regressions between a team's FF points from passing vs its FF points from running.And each passing point is worth +.27 rushing points (ppr), or +.20 rushing points (standard). IOW, as a team's passing gets better so does its rushing. (very high t-stat, low AR^2)I did the same thing with Yards/Attempt and the relationship is stronger. For every one yard improvement in Y/A a team's FF points from rushing go up by 35 on the season. (shockingly high t-stat, stronger AR^2)Those are team numbers, so you can't just apply them to a single RB.ETA: IMO there's no reason to be optimistic that replacing Kolb with Stanton is going to improve on the 5.56 Y/A the Cards had last year. But any sort of half-competent QB (even a rookie like Barkley or Smith) ought to see those numbers go up by a yard or so. Add in a slight improvement to the O-line and an upgrade at RB over the 2012 crew (YMMV) and I could see the backs materially improving on last year's numbers. But the ceiling would still be mid/low RB2 numbers IMO.

Why did you have to go use statistics and facts? When Warner left Beanie didn't do all that well. When Holt and Bulger left, SJ39 didn't do well, other than the seasons he did of course, so that is all we need to see here. By what I've seen in this thread, by one poster in particular, I think it's time to start carving out the Christian Ponder Bust for Canton.

Yeah, your deductive reasoning is top notch, guy. You guys are both toiling. I don't care about fantasy points for the QB. I'm talking about a capable QB decreasing defensive focus on the running attack AND allowing more scoring opps. Obviously QB fantasy points must have some sort of inverse relationship with the RB position because a RB must be getting carries and touchdowns at the expense of a QB's opportunities and touchdowns. Stats are great except when people don't know how to use them.The best situation for a RB is a good QB but with a balanced offense. That way the RB gets plenty of touches but they can pass the ball when they need a first down (and the QB isn't turning the ball over or causing 3 and outs). A great example would be the 2006 Chargers:

Sure, so there was no relation between the passing attack and his TD totals. Total fluke. LT would've rushed for 27 TDs with Skelton instead of Brees.

Uh, LT ran for 28 TD's once in his career. That was in 2006. That was Brees' first year with the Saints. In 2006, the Chargers QGB was Phillip Rivers who had less passes, less yards, lower completion percentage and lower TD's than Brees had in 2005 and LT's rushing TD's went up from 18 to 28.

Yeah, Rivers was SO bad that year! You're totally right. His 92 QB rating and his 22 TD to 9 INT ratio made it so hard on LT. It is a perfect case of a crappy QB allowing a great RB to shine! I mean 2006 Rivers is probably very similar to what the Cards will have in 2013.

 

[Bayhawks]

The best situation for a RB is a good QB but with a balanced offense....A great example would be the 2006 Chargers

Yeah, Rivers was SO bad that year! You're totally right. His 92 QB rating and his 22 TD to 9 INT ratio made it so hard on LT. It is a perfect case of a crappy QB allowing a great RB to shine! I mean 2006 Rivers is probably very similar to what the Cards will have in 2013.

I agree with your premise, but I don't think the '06 Chargers are the "perfect case" for your argument. They weren't a balanced offense with a good QB, they were a run-heavy offense with a first-year QB starter who they didn't ask to do much, only to "manage the game."

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Obviously QB fantasy points must have some sort of inverse relationship with the RB position

Obvious maybe, but also dead wrong. QB points and RB points rise and fall together.

 

[FF Ninja]

Obviously QB fantasy points must have some sort of inverse relationship with the RB position

Obvious maybe, but also dead wrong. QB points and RB points rise and fall together.

Yeah, I didn't actually read what you had written. I thought you had twisted the data to support a Jamal Lewis/Kyle Boller situation. If your conclusion is correct, and QB pts vs. RB pts are indeed positively correlated then it supports my case, so I'm not sure why Fanatic liked your findings. Although, I'm pretty sure that there isn't going to be a hard and fast rule to these things (if I had to guess, I'd say the correlation you found is likely due to the simple fact that when you are moving the ball well, you have more offensive plays - maybe run that with FP/offensive play and see what it spits out). In the case of SD, Rivers went QB8 (266), QB15 (248), QB3 (357) while LT went RB1 (429), RB1 (309), RB7 (226). But like you said, your stats were for team RB although LT was close to owning all of SD's carries.I did go back and read what you wrote and I think the ypa is most telling on how a good QB can help a RB or a bad QB can hurt the RB.

I agree with your premise, but I don't think the '06 Chargers are the "perfect case" for your argument. They weren't a balanced offense with a good QB, they were a run-heavy offense with a first-year QB starter who they didn't ask to do much, only to "manage the game."

462 passing attempts vs. 461 RB rushing attempts. Seems pretty well balanced to me. And while Rivers may have been a first-year starter, he still moved the chains as efficiently as a veteran. Additionally, his 7.4 ypa wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire, but Stafford has only barely topped that number once in his career. The previous year in San Deigo, Drew Brees threw the ball 500 times for 7.2 ypa. An example of what you mentioned (run heavy, first year starter) would be Lewis/Boller or Jones/Sanchez. Rivers may have been a first year starter, but he was neither a rookie nor a guy who played like one. The very next year, he threw the ball the same number of times. So I think balance was a choice, rather than holding back a first year starter.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I don't want to dig any further on this right now, but I'd guess having good QB play increases the size of the pie (especially TDs).

And you're right that it's fairly weak in terms of FF pts. They go up together on average, but a fair bit of the time they wouldn't track like that.

The correlation between a QB's Y/A and the RB's FF pts is much stronger.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I was pretty pessimistic about Arizona when this signing went down, but if the Cards end up landing Palmer and use the #7 on one of those blue chip tackles things will definitely be looking up for Mendenhall (and the rest of the offense).

 

[tdmills]

Not sure why owners are afraid of Ryan Williams.

Lets quickly review his history:

-2012 ran for 164 at 2.8 YPC, shoulder injury ended the year

-2011 torn patella tendon in knee

-2010(college) battled hamstring injuries. 477 yards rushing at 4.4 YPC

-2009(college) 1655 yards at 5.6 YPC

He also tested poorly, 4.61 40 time.

Are people still hanging their hat on a 2009 season?

 

[menobrown]

Not sure why owners are afraid of Ryan Williams. Lets quickly review his history:-2012 ran for 164 at 2.8 YPC, shoulder injury ended the year-2011 torn patella tendon in knee-2010(college) battled hamstring injuries. 477 yards rushing at 4.4 YPC-2009(college) 1655 yards at 5.6 YPCHe also tested poorly, 4.61 40 time.Are people still hanging their hat on a 2009 season?

So he's been hurt and had a poor 40 time. He's as healthy as he's been since he's been in the NFL and as healthy as Mendenhall was last year and is now. They both have health issues to overcome. Yes he had a poor 40 time but in term of pedigree he's fairly close to Mendenhall. Mendehall was pick 36 and RB2 after Ingram. I don't think Mendenhall would have gone over Ingram so his best case would have been RB2, like Williams was.More than anything Williams has barely played. 5 games in his career playing for one of the worst offensive teams of this era while trying to comeback from a patella tendon is way way to early to say he's done or reach a conclusion on his future.

 

[cstu]

Not sure why owners are afraid of Ryan Williams. Lets quickly review his history:-2012 ran for 164 at 2.8 YPC, shoulder injury ended the year-2011 torn patella tendon in knee-2010(college) battled hamstring injuries. 477 yards rushing at 4.4 YPC-2009(college) 1655 yards at 5.6 YPCHe also tested poorly, 4.61 40 time.Are people still hanging their hat on a 2009 season?

3 years younger than Mendenhall. Also, he did not test poorly - he had a below average 40 but his 10 and 20 splits were fine (actually his 10 yard split was faster than Vereen). He also had a 40" vertical and the rest of his times were good.

 

[T.Rex]

Mendenhall is going to pull a lynch and become very relative.

I truly believe this.

 

[sos32]

Lets hope so my RB's took a big hit this offseason, in a rebuild mode with many a rookie pick

 

[FF Ninja]

I was pretty pessimistic about Arizona when this signing went down, but if the Cards end up landing Palmer and use the #7 on one of those blue chip tackles things will definitely be looking up for Mendenhall (and the rest of the offense).

Hard to argue against that being a vast improvement upon last year, but I still think Mendenhall is nothing special and won't be surprised if he's cut before the season.

 

[EBF]

Palmer is no superstar, but he's still a massive upgrade over the scrubs they trotted out last year.

If they can get some decent OL play this will actually be a decent situation for a RB.

 

[avina1]

Mendenhall, Larry Fitzgerald, Carson Palmer. At least there is a little more FF relevancy here.

 

[Concept Coop]

Palmer is no superstar, but he's still a massive upgrade over the scrubs they trotted out last year.

If they can get some decent OL play this will actually be a decent situation for a RB.

I agree that Palmer is a big upgrade over the play they got last season. But I think the situation still has a ways to go to be decent, even, especially in PPR formats.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Palmer is no superstar, but he's still a massive upgrade over the scrubs they trotted out last year.

If they can get some decent OL play this will actually be a decent situation for a RB.

But that's the thing, it doesn't matter who is back there with that o-line. The blocking won't be consistent enough to sustain long drives over the course of the season.

They'll get a few first downs and think things are looking good and then there's going to be a critical sack or TFL which will put them in a predictable down and distance scenario. Once that happens, there isn't anywhere to hide the O-line with clever play calling. And then the punt team wil come on.

Have we already forgotten the turnstiles we saw last year?

 

[EBF]

Bad QBs tend to amplify weakness on the OL by holding the ball too long and making bad decisions. From what I saw of Kolb last year, that was a big problem. He lacked decisiveness and took too many sacks. Palmer should be a little better in that regard. He only took 26 sacks last year in 15 games, which is one less than the 27 Kolb took in 6 games. He's not going to lead this team to the promised land, but if he can improve their QB play from historically bad to merely average then that will be a big arrow up for the entire offense.

 

[ZWK]

Palmer is no superstar, but he's still a massive upgrade over the scrubs they trotted out last year.

If they can get some decent OL play this will actually be a decent situation for a RB.

But that's the thing, it doesn't matter who is back there with that o-line. The blocking won't be consistent enough to sustain long drives over the course of the season.

They'll get a few first downs and think things are looking good and then there's going to be a critical sack or TFL which will put them in a predictable down and distance scenario. Once that happens, there isn't anywhere to hide the O-line with clever play calling. And then the punt team wil come on.

Have we already forgotten the turnstiles we saw last year?

Turnstile #1, LT D'Anthony Batiste, is gone. Turnstile #2, LT Nate Potter, was a rookie 7th rounder who replaced Batiste midseason and should be headed back to the bench. Turnstile #3, RT Bobby Massie, was actually only a turnstile during the first half of the year (his rookie year) - every one of his sacks allowed came during the first half of the season (and he played every snap all season). Turnstile #4, RG Adam Snyder, may be back.

If they draft a LT in the first, their starting OL could be:

LT rookie

LG Colledge

C Sendlein

RG Levi Brown

RT Massie

With Potter and Snyder as backups. Not so bad.

 

[Bayhawks]

462 passing attempts vs. 461 RB rushing attempts. Seems pretty well balanced to me. And while Rivers may have been a first-year starter, he still moved the chains as efficiently as a veteran. Additionally, his 7.4 ypa wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire, but Stafford has only barely topped that number once in his career. The previous year in San Deigo, Drew Brees threw the ball 500 times for 7.2 ypa.An example of what you mentioned (run heavy, first year starter) would be Lewis/Boller or Jones/Sanchez. Rivers may have been a first year starter, but he was neither a rookie nor a guy who played like one. The very next year, he threw the ball the same number of times. So I think balance was a choice, rather than holding back a first year starter.

I know the pass attempts and rush attempts were close (it was actually 469 rushes to 466 passes, when you discount the QB/punter rushes), but it wasn't a balanced offense. They relied on the run. They were 2nd in rushing attempts & 2nd in rushing yards. They were 25th in passing attempts & 16th in passing yards. It was "balanced" in that they attempted a similar number of runs/passes, but when you compare those attempts to the run/pass attempts of of the rest of the NFL teams at the time, it was clearly a run-centric offense.ETA-that being said, your belief that a "capable" QB will help the RB (FF-speaking) is looking more likely in Arizona, after the Palmer trade. If their O-line can improve some (picking a lineman with the #1 would help), Palmer can provide more of a passing threat than Kolb/Skelton/Lindley/Hoyer did in '12. Whichever RB gets the job (assuming no significant RBBC) could be a FF RB2.

 

[moderated]

i think it's a 50/50 flip on who wins the starting role, Ryan Williams is the cheaper investment and thus better gamble IMO.

 

[FF Ninja]

462 passing attempts vs. 461 RB rushing attempts. Seems pretty well balanced to me. And while Rivers may have been a first-year starter, he still moved the chains as efficiently as a veteran. Additionally, his 7.4 ypa wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire, but Stafford has only barely topped that number once in his career. The previous year in San Deigo, Drew Brees threw the ball 500 times for 7.2 ypa.An example of what you mentioned (run heavy, first year starter) would be Lewis/Boller or Jones/Sanchez. Rivers may have been a first year starter, but he was neither a rookie nor a guy who played like one. The very next year, he threw the ball the same number of times. So I think balance was a choice, rather than holding back a first year starter.

I know the pass attempts and rush attempts were close (it was actually 469 rushes to 466 passes, when you discount the QB/punter rushes), but it wasn't a balanced offense. They relied on the run. They were 2nd in rushing attempts & 2nd in rushing yards. They were 25th in passing attempts & 16th in passing yards. It was "balanced" in that they attempted a similar number of runs/passes, but when you compare those attempts to the run/pass attempts of of the rest of the NFL teams at the time, it was clearly a run-centric offense.ETA-that being said, your belief that a "capable" QB will help the RB (FF-speaking) is looking more likely in Arizona, after the Palmer trade. If their O-line can improve some (picking a lineman with the #1 would help), Palmer can provide more of a passing threat than Kolb/Skelton/Lindley/Hoyer did in '12. Whichever RB gets the job (assuming no significant RBBC) could be a FF RB2.

Just because everyone else is unbalanced doesn't make 50/50 heavy in one respect. It is still balanced.

 

[EBF]

Posted this in another thread a few days ago:

Don't want to drag this discussion too far off topic, but did want to offer one last little nugget about Mendenhall. Here is a list of all active NFL RBs who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries:

Steven Jackson
Willis McGahee
Frank Gore
Adrian Peterson
Michael Turner
Cedric Benson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Chris Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Matt Forte
Ray Rice
Ronnie Brown
Brandon Jacobs
Arian Foster
Rashard Mendenhall
LeSean McCoy

Pretty exclusive company. There are 1-2 names on this list that don't do much for me, but by and large it reads like a "who's who" of elite RBs from the past decade. It shows the kind of talent you need if you're going to last as a long term starter in the NFL. Competition for places is extreme. You'll see some guys win starting jobs by default if they were high draft picks and/or if they happened to be in the right place at the right time, but if you are a weak link then you will be found out sooner rather than later, and will generally be replaced within 1-2 years.

The fact that Mendenhall was able to last 3 years as a starter on a playoff team and only lost his job after a serious knee injury pokes some holes in the idea that he's just this mediocre, backup caliber talent. To look at his success as a product of opportunity is to miss a big part of the equation, which is that (in the long run) talent is the reason why players receive opportunities. If he wasn't very good, he would've been replaced long before now. Pittsburgh didn't draft a back in the top 5 rounds at any point during his tenure. They didn't sign any real free agent competition. All of those things indicate a team that felt fine about its RB situation.

Blount's career trajectory more closesly resembles someone like Slaton or Hillis. One good year out nowhere. Reduced effectiveness and workload the following year. Replaced soon thereafter. Irrelevant from that point forward.

If we're trying to figure out Mendenhall's future then I thought it would be useful to consider how similar players have fared. Of all the RBs in the NFL right now who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries, here is how they rank in terms of total number of seasons with at least 200+ carries.

Steven Jackson - 8

Frank Gore - 7

Adrian Peterson - 6
Willis McGahee - 5
Chris Johnson - 5
Marshawn Lynch - 5
Matt Forte - 5

Michael Turner - 4
Cedric Benson - 4
Ray Rice - 4
Ronnie Brown - 4

Maurice Jones-Drew - 3
Brandon Jacobs - 3
Arian Foster - 3
Rashard Mendenhall - 3
LeSean McCoy - 3

A few things stand out to me:

- 11 of 16 (69%) players who managed 3 seasons of 200+ carries had at least one additional season of 200+ carries.

- The average number of 200+ carries seasons from this group is 4.5.

These numbers suggest that any back who manages to accumulate three 200+ carry seasons is far more likely than not to have at least one more 200+ season. However, there's an obvious problem with using this group of players. They aren't retired yet, and thus their careers are incomplete. It's highly likely that some players like McCoy, Foster, Rice, and Lynch have additional 200+ seasons left on their tires. Thus the estimates that you get from this group are likely to be extremely conservative.

For that purpose I thought it might be useful to look at other recent backs whose careers are completely over. Here is a list of all NFL RBs who retired within the past decade who logged at least 200 carries in at least three seasons. The list is sorted by the number of 200+ carry seasons, from most to least.

Emmitt Smith - 14
Curtis Martin - 11
Jerome Bettis - 10
LaDainian Tomlinson - 10
Marshall Faulk - 9
Edgerrin James - 8
Eddie George - 8
Warrick Dunn - 8
Corey Dillon - 8
Jamal Lewis - 8
Fred Taylor - 7
Thomas Jones - 7
Shaun Alexander - 7
Ricky Williams - 6
Clinton Portis - 6
Tiki Barber - 6
Ahman Green - 6
Garrison Hearst - 6
Stephen Davis - 5
Priest Holmes - 4
Willie Parker - 4
Rudi Johnson - 4
Travis Henry - 4
Deuce McAllister - 4
Charlie Garner - 3
Duce Staley - 3
Antowain Smith - 3
Michael Pittman - 3
Brian Westbrook - 3
Adrian Murrell - 3
Marion Barber III - 3
Joseph Addai - 3
Cadillac Williams - 3
Anthony Thomas - 3
Reuben Droughns - 3

If you do the calculations for this group...

- 24 of 35 (68.5%) of RBs who had at least three seasons of 200+ carries had at least one additional 200+ carry season.

- The average number of career 200+ carry seasons for this group is 5.8.

What this tells me is that if you take all subjectivity out of the equation, Mendenhall has a 68.5% chance of having at least one additional 200+ carry season and an expected yield of 2.8 additional 200+ carry seasons.

Of course, there are different ways to frame the stats and what you choose to emphasize will undoubtedly change the results. For example, the 200+ carry season metric that I've chosen is a bit arbitrary. If you looked at players in terms of average carries per season or carries by age, you would probably get different results. The really exceptional talents like Tomlinson, Martin, and Emmitt had a totally unbroken chain of 200+ carry seasons beginning with their first year and continuing for a very long time after that. The fact that Mendenhall only has one 250+ carry season after five years in the league would put him in different company from the likes of them. Likewise, if you used 300+ carry seasons, the results would also look a lot different.

Nevertheless, no matter which metric you use, they're likely to point towards the same conclusion: any RB who is talented enough to command a large workload over his first several seasons is likely to continue doing so. If you want to look for negative comparisons for Mendenhall, you can point towards guys like Anthony Thomas, Joseph Addai, and Duce Staley who produced early for the team that drafted them before fading into irrelevancy later in their careers. On the other hand, there are guys like Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, and Charlie Garner who were much less productive than Mendenhall up to this stage of their careers, but made up for it with a string of good seasons on the back end. Based on history, I think he probably has at least 1-2 useful seasons left. We will have to wait and see though...

 

[Biabreakable]

Good post EBF. You make me curious as to what the average number of carries for all RB might be, as that could be the baseline that one would subtract from all RB and then separate into tiers by some level above that baseline related to the average (likely each 20% step of the average). But I think the 200 carry threshold is likely close enough.

 

[Bayhawks]

462 passing attempts vs. 461 RB rushing attempts. Seems pretty well balanced to me. And while Rivers may have been a first-year starter, he still moved the chains as efficiently as a veteran. Additionally, his 7.4 ypa wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire, but Stafford has only barely topped that number once in his career. The previous year in San Deigo, Drew Brees threw the ball 500 times for 7.2 ypa.An example of what you mentioned (run heavy, first year starter) would be Lewis/Boller or Jones/Sanchez. Rivers may have been a first year starter, but he was neither a rookie nor a guy who played like one. The very next year, he threw the ball the same number of times. So I think balance was a choice, rather than holding back a first year starter.

I know the pass attempts and rush attempts were close (it was actually 469 rushes to 466 passes, when you discount the QB/punter rushes), but it wasn't a balanced offense. They relied on the run. They were 2nd in rushing attempts & 2nd in rushing yards. They were 25th in passing attempts & 16th in passing yards. It was "balanced" in that they attempted a similar number of runs/passes, but when you compare those attempts to the run/pass attempts of of the rest of the NFL teams at the time, it was clearly a run-centric offense.ETA-that being said, your belief that a "capable" QB will help the RB (FF-speaking) is looking more likely in Arizona, after the Palmer trade. If their O-line can improve some (picking a lineman with the #1 would help), Palmer can provide more of a passing threat than Kolb/Skelton/Lindley/Hoyer did in '12. Whichever RB gets the job (assuming no significant RBBC) could be a FF RB2.

Just because everyone else is unbalanced doesn't make 50/50 heavy in one respect. It is still balanced.

OK, in that context, you are correct. The '06 Chargers had a very similar number of rushes vs passes.

When you compare their rush/pass distribution to the rest of the NFL, however, they were more reliant on the run than the pass. IMO, that is more applicable. If the Chargers (in '06) had believed that their QB was more than just a "game manager," they would have given him more attempts, as other NFL teams did that year.

In any event, I agreed with your original premise, and (as I posted previously), with Palmer in Arizona, Mendenhall (or Williams) could offer value as a FF RB2.

 

[Nero]

Posted this in another thread a few days ago:

Don't want to drag this discussion too far off topic, but did want to offer one last little nugget about Mendenhall. Here is a list of all active NFL RBs who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries:Steven JacksonWillis McGaheeFrank GoreAdrian PetersonMichael TurnerCedric BensonMaurice Jones-DrewChris JohnsonMarshawn LynchMatt ForteRay RiceRonnie BrownBrandon JacobsArian FosterRashard MendenhallLeSean McCoyPretty exclusive company. There are 1-2 names on this list that don't do much for me, but by and large it reads like a "who's who" of elite RBs from the past decade. It shows the kind of talent you need if you're going to last as a long term starter in the NFL. Competition for places is extreme. You'll see some guys win starting jobs by default if they were high draft picks and/or if they happened to be in the right place at the right time, but if you are a weak link then you will be found out sooner rather than later, and will generally be replaced within 1-2 years.The fact that Mendenhall was able to last 3 years as a starter on a playoff team and only lost his job after a serious knee injury pokes some holes in the idea that he's just this mediocre, backup caliber talent. To look at his success as a product of opportunity is to miss a big part of the equation, which is that (in the long run) talent is the reason why players receive opportunities. If he wasn't very good, he would've been replaced long before now. Pittsburgh didn't draft a back in the top 5 rounds at any point during his tenure. They didn't sign any real free agent competition. All of those things indicate a team that felt fine about its RB situation.Blount's career trajectory more closesly resembles someone like Slaton or Hillis. One good year out nowhere. Reduced effectiveness and workload the following year. Replaced soon thereafter. Irrelevant from that point forward.

If we're trying to figure out Mendenhall's future then I thought it would be useful to consider how similar players have fared. Of all the RBs in the NFL right now who have at least three seasons of 200+ carries, here is how they rank in terms of total number of seasons with at least 200+ carries. Steven Jackson - 8Frank Gore - 7Adrian Peterson - 6Willis McGahee - 5Chris Johnson - 5Marshawn Lynch - 5Matt Forte - 5Michael Turner - 4Cedric Benson - 4Ray Rice - 4Ronnie Brown - 4Maurice Jones-Drew - 3Brandon Jacobs - 3Arian Foster - 3Rashard Mendenhall - 3LeSean McCoy - 3 A few things stand out to me: - 11 of 16 (69%) players who managed 3 seasons of 200+ carries had at least one additional season of 200+ carries.- The average number of 200+ carries seasons from this group is 4.5. These numbers suggest that any back who manages to accumulate three 200+ carry seasons is far more likely than not to have at least one more 200+ season. However, there's an obvious problem with using this group of players. They aren't retired yet, and thus their careers are incomplete. It's highly likely that some players like McCoy, Foster, Rice, and Lynch have additional 200+ seasons left on their tires. Thus the estimates that you get from this group are likely to be extremely conservative. For that purpose I thought it might be useful to look at other recent backs whose careers are completely over. Here is a list of all NFL RBs who retired within the past decade who logged at least 200 carries in at least three seasons. The list is sorted by the number of 200+ carry seasons, from most to least. Emmitt Smith - 14Curtis Martin - 11Jerome Bettis - 10LaDainian Tomlinson - 10Marshall Faulk - 9Edgerrin James - 8Eddie George - 8Warrick Dunn - 8Corey Dillon - 8Jamal Lewis - 8Fred Taylor - 7Thomas Jones - 7Shaun Alexander - 7Ricky Williams - 6Clinton Portis - 6Tiki Barber - 6Ahman Green - 6Garrison Hearst - 6Stephen Davis - 5Priest Holmes - 4Willie Parker - 4Rudi Johnson - 4Travis Henry - 4Deuce McAllister - 4Charlie Garner - 3Duce Staley - 3Antowain Smith - 3Michael Pittman - 3Brian Westbrook - 3Adrian Murrell - 3Marion Barber III - 3Joseph Addai - 3Cadillac Williams - 3Anthony Thomas - 3Reuben Droughns - 3 If you do the calculations for this group... - 24 of 35 (68.5%) of RBs who had at least three seasons of 200+ carries had at least one additional 200+ carry season.- The average number of career 200+ carry seasons for this group is 5.8. What this tells me is that if you take all subjectivity out of the equation, Mendenhall has a 68.5% chance of having at least one additional 200+ carry season and an expected yield of 2.8 additional 200+ carry seasons. Of course, there are different ways to frame the stats and what you choose to emphasize will undoubtedly change the results. For example, the 200+ carry season metric that I've chosen is a bit arbitrary. If you looked at players in terms of average carries per season or carries by age, you would probably get different results. The really exceptional talents like Tomlinson, Martin, and Emmitt had a totally unbroken chain of 200+ carry seasons beginning with their first year and continuing for a very long time after that. The fact that Mendenhall only has one 250+ carry season after five years in the league would put him in different company from the likes of them. Likewise, if you used 300+ carry seasons, the results would also look a lot different. Nevertheless, no matter which metric you use, they're likely to point towards the same conclusion: any RB who is talented enough to command a large workload over his first several seasons is likely to continue doing so. If you want to look for negative comparisons for Mendenhall, you can point towards guys like Anthony Thomas, Joseph Addai, and Duce Staley who produced early for the team that drafted them before fading into irrelevancy later in their careers. On the other hand, there are guys like Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, and Charlie Garner who were much less productive than Mendenhall up to this stage of their careers, but made up for it with a string of good seasons on the back end. Based on history, I think he probably has at least 1-2 useful seasons left. We will have to wait and see though...

I by no means consider Mendenhall a special talent, but I do recognize he is a capable starter. I acquired him and AJ Jenkins before last season for D. Moore and L. Blount. I'm pretty happy about how it has turned out now. Mendenhall is just 25 years old and has 864 carries already. To add to your point: in the last 10 years, the list of backs how managed over 800 carries by 25 is pretty exclusive company as you say. While I think Williams has the potential to be a low level starter in the NFL, I did not think he would beat out Beanie before he blew out his knee, so I certainly don't think he is a threat to Mendenhall.Steven JacksonRay Rice Adrian PetersonMaurice Jones-DrewClinton PortisFrank GoreMarshawn LynchChris JohnsonWillis McGaheeLeSean McCoyJonathan StewartMatt Forte

 

[FF Ninja]

OK, in that context, you are correct. The '06 Chargers had a very similar number of rushes vs passes.

When you compare their rush/pass distribution to the rest of the NFL, however, they were more reliant on the run than the pass. IMO, that is more applicable. If the Chargers (in '06) had believed that their QB was more than just a "game manager," they would have given him more attempts, as other NFL teams did that year.

In any event, I agreed with your original premise, and (as I posted previously), with Palmer in Arizona, Mendenhall (or Williams) could offer value as a FF RB2.

I think the fact that they did not throw the ball any more the next season (after Rivers had shown his ability) is a clear indicator that they were not making a decision to not to give their QB more attempts, but actually preferred a balanced attack. In general, teams that can effectively run the ball, do run the ball. Teams that pass the ball a lot usually do so out of necessity.

Either way, we are definitely getting off track here. The Arizona starting RB providing RB2 points will be assisted by a passing threat, but I'm still tentative about that o-line. And how did free agency affect their defense? Will it still be a pretty solid unit?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Got curious about Mendenhall's contract and did a little digging.

Steven Jackson:

--1st year salary + signing bonus = $5.25m

--2nd year salary = $3.00 (not guaranteed)

--3rd year salary = $3.75m (not guaranteed)

Reggie Bush:

--1st year salary + signing bonus = $5.00m

--2nd year salary = $3.50m (not guaranteed?)

--3rd year salary = $3.25m (not guaranteed?)

--4th year salary = $3.75m (not guaranteed?)

Rashard Mendenhall

--1st year salary + signing bonus + incentives = $3.5m

If the incentives were basically 'good behavior' and 'workout' related (as opposed to 'make the Pro Bowl') in lieu of an extra million in signing bonuses (in other words if they're designed for him to earn the money, but also structured to allow the Cards manage any risks) it's not really out of line at all given where Mendenhall was coming from in 2012. I think people are glomming onto the 'only $500k is guaranteed' the same way they would with, say, Tony Romo's guaranteed money and that's not really apples to apples.

 

[beef]

Mendenhall was so highly thought of by NFL GMs that one year wonder Hillis got a better deal last year.

 

[menobrown]

Got curious about Mendenhall's contract and did a little digging.

Steven Jackson:

--1st year salary + signing bonus = $5.25m

--2nd year salary = $3.00 (not guaranteed)

--3rd year salary = $3.75m (not guaranteed)

Reggie Bush:

--1st year salary + signing bonus = $5.00m

--2nd year salary = $3.50m (not guaranteed?)

--3rd year salary = $3.25m (not guaranteed?)

--4th year salary = $3.75m (not guaranteed?)

Rashard Mendenhall

--1st year salary + signing bonus + incentives = $3.5m

If the incentives were basically 'good behavior' and 'workout' related (as opposed to 'make the Pro Bowl') in lieu of an extra million in signing bonuses (in other words if they're designed for him to earn the money, but also structured to allow the Cards manage any risks) it's not really out of line at all given where Mendenhall was coming from in 2012. I think people are glomming onto the 'only $500k is guaranteed' the same way they would with, say, Tony Romo's guaranteed money and that's not really apples to apples.

If Mendy's contract was guarnateed for $3.5 millions or even $1.5 million we'd not be having this conversation.,

The value in the contract is in the guarantees and you simply can't add compare a non--guaranteed pay in contracts versus guaranteed pay.

I examined Mendy's contract a few weeks ago and I'm still at the same conclusion. The $500k guarantee is a big deal it's a bigger deal because his base is fairly decent if he makes the team. The small guaranteed would actually be less of a big deal if his base was low.

Put it this way. If his base and incentives was $1million that would be all they had to risk to roster him which makes it a much easier call. Pay another $1million to someone you already paid $500k. Instead they will now face the decision of paying someone they've only invested $500k into an additional $2-3 millions. That's an entirely different call.

This is why I continue to say his roster spot should not be a given because of the fairly large gap between the guaranty and base.

I just don't think there is a valid reason I've seen anyone come up with yet as to why he'd be given such a small guaranty vs base if it was because the Cardinals did not want to maintain the flexibilty of not rostering him.

To me it's pretty clear. This is not one year prove it deal. This is a prove to us in training camp deal and if we like what we THAN and only THAN will we pay you a decent salary on a one year prove it deal.

Again if you believe in Mendy this should not be an issue. If he shows good enough in camp he'll make the roster and probably win the job. What I'd be worried about if I was someone who believed in Mendy was why he would ever take such a low guaranty in the first place? You can spin a positive approach and say he believes in himself but look at what Carson Palmer had to say about signing a contract with little to no guarantees. It's bad business for the player.

 

[gianmarco]

Got curious about Mendenhall's contract and did a little digging.

Steven Jackson:

--1st year salary + signing bonus = $5.25m

--2nd year salary = $3.00 (not guaranteed)

--3rd year salary = $3.75m (not guaranteed)

Reggie Bush:

--1st year salary + signing bonus = $5.00m

--2nd year salary = $3.50m (not guaranteed?)

--3rd year salary = $3.25m (not guaranteed?)

--4th year salary = $3.75m (not guaranteed?)

Rashard Mendenhall

--1st year salary + signing bonus + incentives = $3.5m

If the incentives were basically 'good behavior' and 'workout' related (as opposed to 'make the Pro Bowl') in lieu of an extra million in signing bonuses (in other words if they're designed for him to earn the money, but also structured to allow the Cards manage any risks) it's not really out of line at all given where Mendenhall was coming from in 2012. I think people are glomming onto the 'only $500k is guaranteed' the same way they would with, say, Tony Romo's guaranteed money and that's not really apples to apples.

If Mendy's contract was guarnateed for $3.5 millions or even $1.5 million we'd not be having this conversation.,

The value in the contract is in the guarantees and you simply can't add compare a non--guaranteed pay in contracts versus guaranteed pay.

I examined Mendy's contract a few weeks ago and I'm still at the same conclusion. The $500k guarantee is a big deal it's a bigger deal because his base is fairly decent if he makes the team. The small guaranteed would actually be less of a big deal if his base was low.

Put it this way. If his base and incentives was $1million that would be all they had to risk to roster him which makes it a much easier call. Pay another $1million to someone you already paid $500k. Instead they will now face the decision of paying someone they've only invested $500k into an additional $2-3 millions. That's an entirely different call.

This is why I continue to say his roster spot should not be a given because of the fairly large gap between the guaranty and base.

I just don't think there is a valid reason I've seen anyone come up with yet as to why he'd be given such a small guaranty vs base if it was because the Cardinals did not want to maintain the flexibilty of not rostering him.

To me it's pretty clear. This is not one year prove it deal. This is a prove to us in training camp deal and if we like what we THAN and only THAN will we pay you a decent salary on a one year prove it deal.

Again if you believe in Mendy this should not be an issue. If he shows good enough in camp he'll make the roster and probably win the job. What I'd be worried about if I was someone who believed in Mendy was why he would ever take such a low guaranty in the first place? You can spin a positive approach and say he believes in himself but look at what Carson Palmer had to say about signing a contract with little to no guarantees. It's bad business for the player.

 

[cstu]

I'm not a big fan of Mendenhall's but to be fair, the guarantee he got seems more indicative of his baggage than talent. I have a feeling the attitude in AZ was "We want Beanie out of here and Mendenhall will give us a chance to try him out for only $500k." If he doesn't mess up off the field then I expect them to keep him and at worst be in RBBC with Williams.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think that's the real split here...some people think the contact is about baggage and some think it's about talent.

 

[gianmarco]

I think that's the real split here...some people think the contact is about baggage and some think it's about talent.

I actually think it's about both. Mendenhall was certainly adequate in his starting role in Pitt. But, his value came from his workload and was otherwise relatively unspectacular. He didn't really need to be, but watching him in Pitt he didn't come across as an elite talent. It's not to say he was terrible, but he was replaceable.

If you combine that with his baggage, then you get his current situation. If he didn't have starter talent, he wouldn't have a job anywhere. If he had elite talent (i.e. Peterson, Spiller, McCoy, etc.), then even with his baggage, he'd have been in higher demand by teams willing to take the risk on the baggage.

So there's the rub. And I think ignoring the baggage as if he's going to all of a sudden be a role model citizen is a mistake. As pointed out above, he's going to have to prove it in camp to make the team, IMO. If he does that, then he's certainly going to have a role. But then what? He just isn't a RB that is going to put up spectacular numbers on anything other than a very high workload. If the guy doesn't get 250+ carries, I don't see any way that he breaks 1000 yds in Arizona. He's not going to score double digit TDs in Arizona like he did in Pitt. So, then his 1 year contract is up. Then what? He'll have gotten over the "baggage" part of it but he still probably won't impress enough for a team to heavily invest in him any more than a team like GB invested in Benson or Cincy invested in BJGE. And he'll just be waiting for the next guy to take his place.

In the end, I think his overall upside is limited. I think the only thing he can prove after this year is that the baggage is gone. Unless he gets 300 carries or Arizona is suddenly transformed with Carson Palmer, I don't see any way that he shows enough on the field to have teams want to heavily invest in him as their future for the following 2+ years.

So I don't think it's just a matter of a simple black and white split of baggage vs. talent. I think he's an above average overall RB in the NFL that has enough talent to start for a team. I also don't think he's talented enough to thrive in a poor situation and will only "show his stuff" in an ideal situation like Pitt. Without the baggage, he'd be a relatively hot commodity with all the RB needy teams this year. With the baggage, it's a bad combination that makes teams want to look elsewhere. I don't see him changing that perception in Arizona this year, thus his future is limited even if he does overcome "the baggage". And of course, there's no guarantee that even happens considering he didn't end up with that situation for no reason.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think that's the real split here...some people think the contact is about baggage and some think it's about talent.

I actually think it's about both. Mendenhall was certainly adequate in his starting role in Pitt. But, his value came from his workload and was otherwise relatively unspectacular. He didn't really need to be, but watching him in Pitt he didn't come across as an elite talent. It's not to say he was terrible, but he was replaceable.

If you combine that with his baggage, then you get his current situation. If he didn't have starter talent, he wouldn't have a job anywhere. If he had elite talent (i.e. Peterson, Spiller, McCoy, etc.), then even with his baggage, he'd have been in higher demand by teams willing to take the risk on the baggage.

So there's the rub. And I think ignoring the baggage as if he's going to all of a sudden be a role model citizen is a mistake. As pointed out above, he's going to have to prove it in camp to make the team, IMO. If he does that, then he's certainly going to have a role. But then what? He just isn't a RB that is going to put up spectacular numbers on anything other than a very high workload. If the guy doesn't get 250+ carries, I don't see any way that he breaks 1000 yds in Arizona. He's not going to score double digit TDs in Arizona like he did in Pitt. So, then his 1 year contract is up. Then what? He'll have gotten over the "baggage" part of it but he still probably won't impress enough for a team to heavily invest in him any more than a team like GB invested in Benson or Cincy invested in BJGE. And he'll just be waiting for the next guy to take his place.

In the end, I think his overall upside is limited. I think the only thing he can prove after this year is that the baggage is gone. Unless he gets 300 carries or Arizona is suddenly transformed with Carson Palmer, I don't see any way that he shows enough on the field to have teams want to heavily invest in him as their future for the following 2+ years.

So I don't think it's just a matter of a simple black and white split of baggage vs. talent. I think he's an above average overall RB in the NFL that has enough talent to start for a team. I also don't think he's talented enough to thrive in a poor situation and will only "show his stuff" in an ideal situation like Pitt. Without the baggage, he'd be a relatively hot commodity with all the RB needy teams this year. With the baggage, it's a bad combination that makes teams want to look elsewhere. I don't see him changing that perception in Arizona this year, thus his future is limited even if he does overcome "the baggage". And of course, there's no guarantee that even happens considering he didn't end up with that situation for no reason.

Completely agree. The other issue with Mendenhall as a guy needing tons of volume is that he's a "jack of all trades, master of none" type player. He isn't dynamic at all, so he NEEDS both 3rd down and goal-line to be fantasy relevant, particularly in a bad situation like Arizona. Even on teams where he'd be the best all around RB, a role-player-type short yardage or receiving specialist probably has the ability to really hurt his value. He's never going to be a guy you can count on for more than the short term (and in AZ I wouldn't be counting on much at all in 2013).

 

[T.Rex]

Lol. He's put up very respectable numbers in Pitt. Not like he needed Arian foster carries to do it either.

He will be a great rb2 this year with upside.

And what baggage if everyone crying about?

 

[FF Ninja]

Lol. He's put up very respectable numbers in Pitt. Not like he needed Arian foster carries to do it either.He will be a great rb2 this year with upside.And what baggage if everyone crying about?

He's only been an RB1 once and he required 324 carries that season. In 2011, he got 228 carries (probably more than he'll get in Arizona) and finished RB19. I think that's his upside this year. I give that an 8% chance.

 

[EBF]

Here's how he finished in my most generic PPR league:

2009 - RB16

2010 - RB11

2011 - RB22

Pittsburgh ran the ball about as much as the average NFL team over that time frame.

Arizona ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts over that same stretch, but that was with a different coach.

Bruce Arians teams have generally been middle of the road in terms of rushing attempts. Last year's Colts team ran the ball 440 times despite having a weak backfield. That's consistent with his Steelers teams, which ran the ball about 450 times per season on average. My guess is that there will be about 410-460 carries to go around on this year's Cardinals team. Plenty of room for Mendenhall to get 250-300 if he can beat out Williams and stay healthy. Those are the two main variables.

Based on the opportunity in front of him and his history, I'd say he's more likely than not to produce RB2 numbers. Good chance to finish somewhere between RB12-RB20 in PPR leagues. I don't know what his redraft ADP will be, but in dynasty drafts he seems to fall to about RB30-RB40. Excellent value at that price.

 

[cstu]

Lol. He's put up very respectable numbers in Pitt. Not like he needed Arian foster carries to do it either.He will be a great rb2 this year with upside.And what baggage if everyone crying about?

Getting suspended for conduct detrimental to the team for starters. Who knows what else behind the scenes. It was enough for the Steelers to let him walk over very little money.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Mendenhall was so highly thought of by NFL GMs that one year wonder Hillis got a better deal last year.

I would have preferred Hillis in Pitt over Mendy.

 

[voiceofunreason]

I just traded Aaron Rodgers for Jamarcus Russel. He was rated better than him when he came out. All his bad games in Oakland were because of the bad team around him. He has more talent than a lot of qbs in the NFL and if you look at the guys who have more than 450 pass attempts per years, 3 years in a row, they usually do well in their late 20s. A lot of people say he's a fat idiot, he has no talent, even Oakland thought he was an idiot and he never played 2 good games and has no chance of being a good player. I say to them, he's better than Geno Smith and is a better talent than any qb in this draft. There's a lot of teams that need starters and he's better than the rookies out there. You're welcome.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'll take the under on 250 carries.

And I'll take the under on RB20.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'll take the under on 250 carries. And I'll take the under on RB20.

Agree. Even if Mendenhall wins the job, he's not real likely to be so much better than Williams / whoever else that he makes everyone else totally irrelevant. And the Cardinals have been absolutely rank in the running game for as far back as you care to look. I think it's in large part an o-line issue, and that doesn't get fixed overnight. Mendenhall isn't going to catch a bunch of passes, and the Cardinal's offense isn't going to be in the red zone enough for him to score a bunch of TDs. I'd say RB20 is his absolute ceiling. I'm expecting about 200 carries @ slightly under 4.0 YPC, maybe 20 catches for another 150ish -- 900 or so total YFS and 4 - 6 TDs -- maybe a RB30 finish (PPR). And that's if he stays healthy and wins the lead spot pretty cleanly.

What Mendenhall did in Pittsburgh is totally irrelevant to a 2013 projection IMO -- the team he is on now is waaaay worse in pretty much every way.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Even if things play out the way EBF describes (and I agree with him) I don't see Mendenhall approaching RB12. Best guess is 12.1 ppg (ppr), RB25.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Even if things play out the way EBF describes (and I agree with him) I don't see Mendenhall approaching RB12. Best guess is 12.1 ppg (ppr), RB25.

Cardinals' RBs combined for under 1000 rushing total last year. Mendenhall ain't sniffing RB12 in AZ unless he brought Big Ben and Pouncey in his suitcase with him.

 

[EBF]

I'm not sure Pittsburgh would really qualify as a great situation for a RB in recent years. Probably more middle of the road. I'm not a Steelers fan, but I've been under the impression that their line has gradually become a liability. The fact that Dwyer and Redman didn't set the world on fire this past season shows that this wasn't necessarily a powerhouse team that could plug anyone in there and get great results.

I don't think Arizona is poised to be a running juggernaut either, but I think they can approach what Pittsburgh has done the last couple years. People are quick to point out how bad their RB production has been in recent seasons without pointing out how bad their RBs have been. Beanie Wells was overrated and could never stay healthy regardless. Tim Hightower was a journeyman. Emmitt Smith was a shadow by the time he signed there. Edgerrin James is the one guy who was a great talent and still (maybe) in his prime. He had high yardage in Arizona, but low YPC numbers. It's tough to say how much of his struggles were system and how much were related to his own decline in ability. He did have 2000+ carries by the time he signed with them, and not every RB ages like Steven Jackson.

I think Mendenhall is the best back Arizona has had since James. The fact that Stephens-Howling, Wells, and Hightower struggled on this team doesn't doom him to failure. Washington and Tampa were bad rushing teams in 2011. How about last year? Sometimes adding a few new players into the mix is all it takes to get liftoff. I don't rate Mendenhall on par with somebody like Martin, but the idea that a historically bad rushing team is locked into that level of performance is narrow-minded. Things change very fast in the NFL. The Cardinals have already taken a big step forward by acquiring Palmer and Mendenhall. That alone should guarantee that their passing and rushing numbers improve dramatically from last season's woeful performance. They might not be a great team, but they have a reasonable chance to be middle of the pack. Hence why I think Mendenhall could end up anywhere from slightly above average (RB12) to slightly below average (RB20)..

When people are valuing him around RB30-RB40, I think it's a great gamble. There aren't many backs in that range who have a chance to crack the top 20 this year without catching some very lucky breaks.