Mid season WR sleepers? (1 Viewer)

[losgalacticos]

I am coming up lame thinking of them, but Eric Parker comes to mind (with Rivers throwing more) and on a hunch that he resumes his 1st couple of weeks' performance- Antonio Bryant. Sometimes old guys do it too, but I like Parker more than McCardell myself. I don't love Samie P...... but willing to listen to why I am wrong.

Any other ideas to make me/us think?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Wes Welker:

Amazingly enough, Harrington actually helps his value. He's getting the targets, and while Chambers is deservedly the much better red zone option, Welker does have some open field explosiveness. I wouldn't expect a Patrick Jeffers career-year ceiling, but a few Dolphins defensive injuries could open up the scoring a bit.

 

[Monarch]

Joe Horn - I think the emergence of Colston and Bush will mean more opportunities

Derrick Mason - Fassel gone may improve his numbers

Michael Clayton - New QB is better than Simms

Chad Jackson or Doug Gabriel - Brady has to find a go to guy or does he?

 

[einstein2u]

matt jones......

 

[Hamstring]

Mark Bradley

 

[Capt Hook]

Seems like most of those guys are already rostered.

I would look at

Derek Hagan, Miami WR

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego WR

 

[Steelnation]

Nate Washington

 

[KCC]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Seems like most of those guys are already rostered.I would look at Derek Hagan, Miami WRMalcolm Floyd, San Diego WR

I didn't take this topic as "who can we grab off the waiver wire" for the rest of the season. I thought it was more like "who can we target for possible 2nd half explosion even though they've have little impact so far."I thought it was more like trade targets than waiver targets, but either should be viable.

 

[Man in the yellow hat]

Drew Bennett

 

[aggie_dave]

If the topic is WW sleepers, you might take a look at Brandon Jones (TEN).

Givens has a broken hand, R. Williams just had hand surgery, and Bennett is a consumate injury risk. On top of that, Young started targeting Jones this past week against WAS, who has no slouch of a defense.

So Jones could be in line to blow up this year.

 

[AnonymousBob]

matt jones......

The same Matt Jones who has been completely healthy for...what, one game? Now he's listed as doubtful this week after having a bye to get better? I like the guy a great deal but I'm not sure he's going get over his injury this year.

 

[PsychoMan]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

Is Welker the clear #2 guy in Miami?Also, I was thinking the opposite about Furrey with Hakim entering the picture lately, but I don't really see Lions games much so I dunno ...

 

[brednbuddah]

Isn't it too soon to give up on Troy Williamson? Ok, he's had some drops and did nothing against Detroit, but is that enough to throw in the towel? Who else do they have? Travis Taylor? Marcus Robinson?

I don't have him on my roster, just curious as to why everyone seems to be giving up on him after such hype in the pre-season.

 

[ooofffaaa]

Chad Jackson

 

[stevegamer]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

Is Welker the clear #2 guy in Miami?Also, I was thinking the opposite about Furrey with Hakim entering the picture lately, but I don't really see Lions games much so I dunno ...

I'm seeing Welker as the #1 guy in Miami. Chambers can't catch well enough to be a #1.

 

[Billy1x]

Brandon Jones - Coming on fast

Butter Finger Williamson - Easy schedule coming up

 

[Limp Ditka]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

Is Welker the clear #2 guy in Miami?Also, I was thinking the opposite about Furrey with Hakim entering the picture lately, but I don't really see Lions games much so I dunno ...

I'm seeing Welker as the #1 guy in Miami. Chambers can't catch well enough to be a #1.

Not a chanceWelker had 2 targets and was shut out until the 4th quarter on Sunday.In the 4th quarter, when desperate and passing every play, Welker got 8 targets which netted 6 catches for 56 yards.Donald Hagan got most of the looks before the 4th quarter and I'd expect the same thing to continue.

 

[MarcO]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

Is Welker the clear #2 guy in Miami?Also, I was thinking the opposite about Furrey with Hakim entering the picture lately, but I don't really see Lions games much so I dunno ...

I'm seeing Welker as the #1 guy in Miami. Chambers can't catch well enough to be a #1.

You must know something the NFL scouts don't...

2006 Scouting Report - Scouts Inc.

Grade: 79 | Key

Alert: None

Comment:

Chambers is an experienced, extremely athletic playmaker. He usually aligns as the Z receiver. He plays fast and has natural hands and catching skills. He has the tools to be effective on all three levels of the passing game.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

Is Welker the clear #2 guy in Miami?Also, I was thinking the opposite about Furrey with Hakim entering the picture lately, but I don't really see Lions games much so I dunno ...

I'm seeing Welker as the #1 guy in Miami. Chambers can't catch well enough to be a #1.

You must know something the NFL scouts don't...

2006 Scouting Report - Scouts Inc.

Grade: 79 | Key

Alert: None

Comment:

Chambers is an experienced, extremely athletic playmaker. He usually aligns as the Z receiver. He plays fast and has natural hands and catching skills. He has the tools to be effective on all three levels of the passing game.

Look up SSOG's comments on Chambers. His catch rate is awful. I won't go as far as attributing that to hands or route running, but the numbers speak for themselves in regards to the troubles he has being productive

 

[f360spyder]

Mark Clayton, if McNair goes away.

Referring to the above post, there was a thread about Chambers being the 4th targeted. He caught ~47% of passes thrown his way. Didn't say if it was his fault or the QBs, though.

 

[stevegamer]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

Is Welker the clear #2 guy in Miami?Also, I was thinking the opposite about Furrey with Hakim entering the picture lately, but I don't really see Lions games much so I dunno ...

I'm seeing Welker as the #1 guy in Miami. Chambers can't catch well enough to be a #1.

You must know something the NFL scouts don't...

2006 Scouting Report - Scouts Inc.

Grade: 79 | Key

Alert: None

Comment:

Chambers is an experienced, extremely athletic playmaker. He usually aligns as the Z receiver. He plays fast and has natural hands and catching skills. He has the tools to be effective on all three levels of the passing game.

Of course he has "natural hands" - I think they are the hands he was born with, and even little kids have natural catching skills - "try and grab the object coming at me" is a natural reaction.This is one of those spots where stat analysis & visual analysis disagree. Chambers' catch rate is bad. I don't mean bad for a #1 receiver - just bad.

I've heard the "it's the QB" excuse, which doesn't explain why other guys have a much higher catch rate with the same QB's. If the same guy keeps having the worst catch% with multiple QB's what does that say?

To give you an example - let's give Chambers a 50% catch rate, which is actually above his average, IIRC.

Let say receiver X has a catch rate of 65%. Every 20 targets the other guy is going to catch 3 more balls than Chambers. 140 targets over a year (8.75 per game) leads us to 21 more catches.

Chambers is not good at catching the ball. He's a #2 on a good team - unless he learns to catch better. The Dolphins need to see if Welker or Hagan can be their #1 going forward.

 

[Stinger Ray]

Drew Bennett

 

[creeps1313]

What about RBrown....or is has he already arrived?

 

[Routilla]

Bryant Johnson AZ

With Boldin going off vs CHI I think he draws double coverage heavily until Fitz gets back. @OAK this weekend, not a bad WW starter in a pinch.

 

[nflguru]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

Is Welker the clear #2 guy in Miami?Also, I was thinking the opposite about Furrey with Hakim entering the picture lately, but I don't really see Lions games much so I dunno ...

I'm seeing Welker as the #1 guy in Miami. Chambers can't catch well enough to be a #1.

Not a chanceWelker had 2 targets and was shut out until the 4th quarter on Sunday.In the 4th quarter, when desperate and passing every play, Welker got 8 targets which netted 6 catches for 56 yards.Donald Hagan got most of the looks before the 4th quarter and I'd expect the same thing to continue.

I picked up and started welker last week due (bye week for other wr) and he didnt have much until they began passing every play (which was late in the game)... The upside is that he runs back kicks and has the potential to score on special teams (if your league scoring allows this)

 

[losgalacticos]

Isn't it too soon to give up on Troy Williamson? Ok, he's had some drops and did nothing against Detroit, but is that enough to throw in the towel? Who else do they have? Travis Taylor? Marcus Robinson?I don't have him on my roster, just curious as to why everyone seems to be giving up on him after such hype in the pre-season.

I kind of like that one- I got discourgaed when I went back and looked at the FG write-ups for him from the games. They seemed to get worse from week 1 to week 5. But we can't predict so many things.... maybe he will get more comfortable.The B Jones one is interesting too. I havn't even noticed he was getting looks.

 

[my man otis]

what about ernest wilford?

i'm giving him a start this week due to the byes. over rod smith. matt jones still isn't healthy after the bye week (listed as doubtful). he's got a better QB than the other WRs mentioned above.

remaining schedule looks pretty decent vs. WR. Next four games:

@Hou - 31st vs pass

@Phi - 27 vs pass

Ten - middle of the pack (too lazy to count down the page)

Hou - 31st vs pass

He burned houston last year. might as well give it a shot.

 

[Provy Wit]

How about Chad Johnson??

 

[Billy1x]

Isn't it too soon to give up on Troy Williamson? Ok, he's had some drops and did nothing against Detroit, but is that enough to throw in the towel? Who else do they have? Travis Taylor? Marcus Robinson?I don't have him on my roster, just curious as to why everyone seems to be giving up on him after such hype in the pre-season.

I kind of like that one- I got discourgaed when I went back and looked at the FG write-ups for him from the games. They seemed to get worse from week 1 to week 5. But we can't predict so many things.... maybe he will get more comfortable.The B Jones one is interesting too. I havn't even noticed he was getting looks.

The Brandon Jones thing started when Givens got hurt. Guess who was Vince Youngs #1 WR on the 2nd team.

 

[shakeybarn]

Mark Clayton, if McNair goes away.Referring to the above post, there was a thread about Chambers being the 4th targeted. He caught ~47% of passes thrown his way. Didn't say if it was his fault or the QBs, though.

...because one game last year, and one this year sets forth a tread?

 

[Phurfur]

I am coming up lame thinking of them, but Eric Parker comes to mind (with Rivers throwing more) and on a hunch that he resumes his 1st couple of weeks' performance- Antonio Bryant. Sometimes old guys do it too, but I like Parker more than McCardell myself. I don't love Samie P...... but willing to listen to why I am wrong.Any other ideas to make me/us think?

I like Parker, I picked him up in two PPR leagues today.

 

[MarcO]

Welker was a good nomination. I'll also cast a vot for Mike Furrey.

Is Welker the clear #2 guy in Miami?Also, I was thinking the opposite about Furrey with Hakim entering the picture lately, but I don't really see Lions games much so I dunno ...

I'm seeing Welker as the #1 guy in Miami. Chambers can't catch well enough to be a #1.

You must know something the NFL scouts don't...

2006 Scouting Report - Scouts Inc.

Grade: 79 | Key

Alert: None

Comment:

Chambers is an experienced, extremely athletic playmaker. He usually aligns as the Z receiver. He plays fast and has natural hands and catching skills. He has the tools to be effective on all three levels of the passing game.

Look up SSOG's comments on Chambers. His catch rate is awful. I won't go as far as attributing that to hands or route running, but the numbers speak for themselves in regards to the troubles he has being productive

Chambers has 2 dropped balls this season - defined "Any incomplete pass which was catchable with normal effort. STATS compares and reviews the judgement of multiple reporters to determine if a pass was dropped". "catch rate" is based on specualtion as to why he didn't make the catch - over his head, too low, behind him, intercepted, hail mary, etc... Tory Holt's catch rate this year is 50% (ZERO drops) - he's not too bad is he? Andre Johnson - THREE drops and a catch rate of 72%

DJack (a legit #1 who drops a lot of balls) has a catch rate of 63%. he must suck too. And finally Steve Smith FIVE drops.

Catch rate numbers are all over the board. Put Chambers in any of those places and his numbers go way up.

 

[xcheck2430]

welker, furrey, or floyd (SD)

as long as culpepper is on the bench, welker is a good option this season.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I like Ernest Wilford.

This guy was a force last season,

a rising star, then he flames out,

just like that ?

Ive got to tthink he will

be of some decent value if Matt Jones

stays down for w while longer.

 

[SickThing]

Eric Moulds has had a consistent minimal 4 receptions every game this year for 54.8 YPG against some good defenses so far. And with Andre Johnson demanding double teams (keeping them off Moulds), Carr looking sharp, and the schedule getting easier I see him picking it up. While not expecting the 88/1043/5 that he got in 2004 (#10 in rec, with another 81 in 2005) he could make for a nice #3 WR.

Also his matchup this week vs Jacksonville may sound tough, but the last two times he faced the Jag's in '03 and '04 he went 7/133/1 and 8/75/1. (This while Bledsoe was looking bad in BUF.)

And you never know... Wali Lundy might even surprise and give that team more of a spark too. losgalacticos said it in the first post; "sometimes old guys do it too" and this 33 year old isn't going to get covered as much as he did in some big years in his recent past.

ETA: BTW, his bye week has passed too.

 

[f360spyder]

Mark Clayton, if McNair goes away.Referring to the above post, there was a thread about Chambers being the 4th targeted. He caught ~47% of passes thrown his way. Didn't say if it was his fault or the QBs, though.

...because one game last year, and one this year sets forth a tread?

What?Clayton's numbers were doing very well for a rookie the 2nd half of the season.

 

[Bri]

R-u-v-e-l-l M-a-r-t-i-n

 

[GOroute]

i think 3 rooks and 1 almost rook. let's discuss these guys for a minute.

Chad Jackson - starting on sunday

Derek Hagans - got looks last sunday

Santonio Holmes - Pitt finally sort of got him the ball last sunday

Brandon Jones - looks to be getting targetted

what order would you want these guys?

I would say...

1) jackson

2) jones

3) hagan

4) holmes

 

[Restricted]

Bryant Johnson AZWith Boldin going off vs CHI I think he draws double coverage heavily until Fitz gets back. @OAK this weekend, not a bad WW starter in a pinch.

You don't think that Boldin drew double coverage from the Bears last Monday night?

 

[Mapmaker]

Seems like most of those guys are already rostered.

I would look at

Derek Hagan, Miami WR

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego WR

Good call, I added him earlier this week to my Dynasty WR corp for future depth; CJohnson, CChambers, GJennings & JCotchery.

He's 6'5, 205 and still a babe, thing is he had lots of time to play catch with Rivers as they waited for their day to come so there should be some good rapore among them ... Vince Jackson is the more harolded up and comer but in very limited play to date this kids got himself 2 scores in 10 targets with 4 receptions ... if you have a spot on your dynasty bench he's a definate promising prospect ... McCardell isn't getting any younger!

Hagan is another great prospect, but like Jackson, much more visable to the FF crowd.

 

[simey]

Mark Clayton, if McNair goes away.

Both those catches made by Clayton last weekend were off of deflections. It wasn't like Boller put it on the numbers. Boller was lucky the first touchdown pass wasn't intercepted in the endzone. He threw it into traffic and it was deflected in the air, I think it even hit the goal post, came back down, and Clayton ended up with it. The second touchdown pass deflected too, although Clayton did burn some rubber after he ended up with the ball.

 

[brednbuddah]

Eric Moulds has had a consistent minimal 4 receptions every game this year for 54.8 YPG against some good defenses so far. And with Andre Johnson demanding double teams (keeping them off Moulds), Carr looking sharp, and the schedule getting easier I see him picking it up. While not expecting the 88/1043/5 that he got in 2004 (#10 in rec, with another 81 in 2005) he could make for a nice #3 WR.

Also his matchup this week vs Jacksonville may sound tough, but the last two times he faced the Jag's in '03 and '04 he went 7/133/1 and 8/75/1. (This while Bledsoe was looking bad in BUF.)

And you never know... Wali Lundy might even surprise and give that team more of a spark too. losgalacticos said it in the first post; "sometimes old guys do it too" and this 33 year old isn't going to get covered as much as he did in some big years in his recent past.

ETA: BTW, his bye week has passed too.

on the surface I would tend to agree, but being that HOU has absolutely no running game, Moulds is basically being used as a pseudo-RB. The majority of those 4 receptions per game appear to be short gainers. 15 of his 25 targets are 1st down passing attempts. They also look for AJ or their TEs inside the 20. Moulds does have 3 receptions >25 yards (leader has 5), but overall he seems to be the possession guy. translation, he'll rack up yardage but maybe not the TDs. I hope I'm wrong because he's on my roster, but I'm just being objective.

 

[IGKYA!!!]

Drew Bennett

His best games are behind him with VY at QB.

 

[cstu]

Brandon Jones - Coming on fastButter Finger Williamson - Easy schedule coming up

The team is also going to let him focus on receiving, maybe it will help.

(Rotoworld) Troy Williamson is not expected to work on returns any longer.Impact: Bethel Johnson will move into the role of ace return man for Minnesota. Williamson has been highly inconsistent this season as a receiver, a position he'll now be able to focus solely on.

 

[Bri]

Seems like most of those guys are already rostered.

I would look at

Derek Hagan, Miami WR

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego WR

Good call, I added him earlier this week to my Dynasty WR corp for future depth; CJohnson, CChambers, GJennings & JCotchery.

He's 6'5, 205 and still a babe, thing is he had lots of time to play catch with Rivers as they waited for their day to come so there should be some good rapore among them

I find him interesting too but IIRC he's been around a few years. This is his 3rd or 4th, isn't it?

 

[CA_7]

Regarding Floyd....Correct me if I am wrong, but the 31 yarder vs BAL was a mini-hail-mary type play? Not 100% sure...

If I am right, it were not for two "jump ball" type passes, Floyd's stat line this year would be 2/18/0...

Seems like a very one dimensional type WR to try and count on as a sleeper.

 

[CowboyFan]

Seems like most of those guys are already rostered.

I would look at

Derek Hagan, Miami WR

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego WR

Good call, I added him earlier this week to my Dynasty WR corp for future depth; CJohnson, CChambers, GJennings & JCotchery.

He's 6'5, 205 and still a babe, thing is he had lots of time to play catch with Rivers as they waited for their day to come so there should be some good rapore among them

I find him interesting too but IIRC he's been around a few years. This is his 3rd or 4th, isn't it?

sportsline has him playing 4 games in '04 (no stats for '05), but lists him as a 1st year player...par for the course for sportsline

 

[Bri]

Seems like most of those guys are already rostered.

I would look at

Derek Hagan, Miami WR

Malcolm Floyd, San Diego WR

Good call, I added him earlier this week to my Dynasty WR corp for future depth; CJohnson, CChambers, GJennings & JCotchery.

He's 6'5, 205 and still a babe, thing is he had lots of time to play catch with Rivers as they waited for their day to come so there should be some good rapore among them

I find him interesting too but IIRC he's been around a few years. This is his 3rd or 4th, isn't it?

sportsline has him playing 4 games in '04 (no stats for '05), but lists him as a 1st year player...par for the course for sportsline

sportsline's not wrong there though. If a guy rots on the practice squad for a year he gets creditted with no NFL experience. He didn't play and that's the definition of NFL experience, know what I mean?I'm finding conflicting info. ESPN has him signed as a free agent on April 27 2004 while Doug's got him as a 3rd round pick.

Use CTRL F for april 27th

http://sports-att.espn.go.com/nfl/teams/tr...ctions?team=sdg

 

[2short13]

For the last few years, I've done a mid to late season analysis of WR and the potential for someone to emerge. I went back and looked at previous years to see what kind of WR were in the TOP 10 fantasy points from (for example) Week 8 to the end of the season or Week 10 to end of season. I have not done that this year, but here is my criteria I use. These tend to be derived from the general observations I made looking at Past years.

Experience: Most who emerge were 2nd or 3rd year or veterans.

QB: Most who emerge have at least a decent VET QB.

Rb: Most who emerge do NOT have a so-called stud at RB who gets all the TD's

Wr: Most who emerge tend be the #1 (whether disputed or not) WR on their team.

Schedule: Most who emerge had an easier schedule compared to the rest of the league.

I have my old files on my home computer and may do this and post results next week. Off the top of my head, I found, picked up, or traded for the following receivers during their BREAKOUT period:

Steve Smith

Chad Johnson

Lav Coles

Also some vets showed up on this list if I remember right. I'll post all previous results next week if I can find them. I would go through every team, list 1 or 2 WRs, go through all the above criteria and pick out the 4 or 5 best possible candidates. I guarantee you that a couple from the list of five will be in the TOP 10 WR points over the last half of the season. Good Luck!