Mike vick #1 overal (1 Viewer)

[-jb-]

Marino, 1984

Marino, 1985

 

[Sweetness_34]

I did not see anyone comment on the schedule. Remember Vick gets to go against the NFC West this year (much better than the NFC North last year that included top 5 defenses like Packers and Bears and another top 15 D in Vikings). Also, his FF playoff schedule is Miami (road); Jets (at home) and Dallas (road). Miami and Dallas should be good match ups.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

As has been pointed out already, some people have very a good year and then regress the next year. Others have a very good year and then follow it up with another very good year. Anecdotes about what Marino did after setting the single-season TD record, or what Brady did two years after setting the single-season TD record aren't especially useful. Vick didn't throw for 51 TDs last year. He had a good year passing, and supplemented that with a good year rushing - the combination of the two made him immensely valuable. It was definitely a "career year" type of performance, one he's unlikely to match. But by all accounts he is a different player than he was before he went to prison. I wouldn't be so sure that Vick's 2010 was an absurd outlier, like Marino's 48 or Brady's 50 TD seasons obviously were.

 

[dgreen]

Young will probably end up on your waiver wire. Why waste a pick on him as a handcuff?

Tons of people assume Vick will miss some games. They'll assume the Vick owner wants Young. If the Vick owner hasn't drafted Young by the last couple rounds, someone else will and then offer him in a trade or hang onto him for those couple of weeks they assume he'll play.

I don't understand the Young love. It's not JUST the Eagles system that is enabling Vick to put up these ridiculous numbers. Otherwise Kolb would have done it. Vick put up ridiculous numbers last year primarily because he has ridiculous talent. Reid has helped him hone that talent. Yes, Young has decent scrambling ability and a pretty good arm, but nothing like Vick. If I am fortunate enough to land Vick, I won't be rushing to grab Young. I'd rather have another starter who's already been throwing the football in real games all season.

I'm not sure how Vick owners using a late-round draft pick on Vince Young equates to "Young love".

 

[dgreen]

As has been pointed out already, some people have very a good year and then regress the next year. Others have a very good year and then follow it up with another very good year. Anecdotes about what Marino did after setting the single-season TD record, or what Brady did two years after setting the single-season TD record aren't especially useful. Vick didn't throw for 51 TDs last year. He had a good year passing, and supplemented that with a good year rushing - the combination of the two made him immensely valuable. It was definitely a "career year" type of performance, one he's unlikely to match. But by all accounts he is a different player than he was before he went to prison. I wouldn't be so sure that Vick's 2010 was an absurd outlier, like Marino's 48 or Brady's 50 TD seasons obviously were.

Wait, what are people saying about 1985 Marino? He finished as QB2 and 7th overall. The horror!

 

[-jb-]

As has been pointed out already, some people have very a good year and then regress the next year. Others have a very good year and then follow it up with another very good year. Anecdotes about what Marino did after setting the single-season TD record, or what Brady did two years after setting the single-season TD record aren't especially useful. Vick didn't throw for 51 TDs last year. He had a good year passing, and supplemented that with a good year rushing - the combination of the two made him immensely valuable. It was definitely a "career year" type of performance, one he's unlikely to match. But by all accounts he is a different player than he was before he went to prison. I wouldn't be so sure that Vick's 2010 was an absurd outlier, like Marino's 48 or Brady's 50 TD seasons obviously were.

It's pretty much exactly the same. If Vick played all 16 games at the rate he scored last season, he would have racked up 10 points less than Brady's 2007 (Brady's 496 vs. Vick's 487). Now people are expecting him to improve on his 2010 PPG and play in 16 games. Or 14.Some things to think about:

Tom Brady

2007 - 496 points

2009 - 344 points

Regression - 31%

Peyton Manning

2004 - 457 points

2005 - 312 points

Regression - 32%

Dan Marino (sorry, not sure what FBG scoring format is, so did not normalize)

1984 - 5084/48/17

1985 - 4137/30/21

Regression - 30% based on 4pt TD, 1/25 pass, -1 int

So, despite...

- a history of missing games

- no track record for this level of performance

- no precedent that anyone has ever improved on such an outlying performance

- no precedent that anyone has regressed less than 30% from such an outlying performance

...folks are cool with thinking that he will improve.

We all have limbs that we go out on every year. This won't be mine.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

It's pretty much exactly the same. If Vick played all 16 games at the rate he scored last season, he would have racked up 10 points less than Brady's 2007 (Brady's 496 vs. Vick's 487).

But it's not the same. Brady's 50 TDs was obviously an outlier. Any such record-breaking season typically is. Vick didn't match Brady's fantasy production by virtue of shattering a TD record. He just honed his passing game to go with his already great running game. No reason to think he can't be a great passer and runner again this year.

...you're cool with thinking that he will improve.

When did I ever say that? I admitted he's unlikely to match last year's performance. I just don't think he's as much of an injury and regression risk as others do.

 

[-jb-]

It's pretty much exactly the same. If Vick played all 16 games at the rate he scored last season, he would have racked up 10 points less than Brady's 2007 (Brady's 496 vs. Vick's 487).

But it's not the same. Brady's 50 TDs was obviously an outlier. Any such record-breaking season typically is. Vick didn't match Brady's fantasy production by virtue of shattering a TD record. He just honed his passing game to go with his already great running game. No reason to think he can't be a great passer and runner again this year.

...you're cool with thinking that he will improve.

When did I ever say that? I admitted he's unlikely to match last year's performance. I just don't think he's as much of an injury and regression risk as others do.

Yeah, I changed it to "folks" instead of "you" since I wasn't sure. Understood there, and apologies.However, I still think it's exactly the same type of situation. Regardless of HOW Vick scores the points, he scores the points. For every yard rushed, there's one less pass yard needed. Same with TDs, obviously. Steve Young is probably the best comparison in terms of skill set, and he never sniffed that many points. His best year was 1994 with 425. He followed that up with a 34% regression to 281.

 

[Banger]

As has been pointed out already, some people have very a good year and then regress the next year. Others have a very good year and then follow it up with another very good year. Anecdotes about what Marino did after setting the single-season TD record, or what Brady did two years after setting the single-season TD record aren't especially useful. Vick didn't throw for 51 TDs last year. He had a good year passing, and supplemented that with a good year rushing - the combination of the two made him immensely valuable. It was definitely a "career year" type of performance, one he's unlikely to match. But by all accounts he is a different player than he was before he went to prison. I wouldn't be so sure that Vick's 2010 was an absurd outlier, like Marino's 48 or Brady's 50 TD seasons obviously were.

It's pretty much exactly the same. If Vick played all 16 games at the rate he scored last season, he would have racked up 10 points less than Brady's 2007 (Brady's 496 vs. Vick's 487). Now people are expecting him to improve on his 2010 PPG and play in 16 games. Or 14.Some things to think about:

Tom Brady

2007 - 496 points

2009 - 344 points

Regression - 31%

Peyton Manning

2004 - 457 points

2005 - 312 points

Regression - 32%

Dan Marino (sorry, not sure what FBG scoring format is, so did not normalize)

1984 - 5084/48/17

1985 - 4137/30/21

Regression - 30% based on 4pt TD, 1/25 pass, -1 int

So, despite...

- a history of missing games

- no track record for this level of performance

- no precedent that anyone has ever improved on such an outlying performance

- no precedent that anyone has regressed less than 30% from such an outlying performance

...folks are cool with thinking that he will improve.

We all have limbs that we go out on every year. This won't be mine.

I've said it several times in this thread. He doesn't need to improve...he can regress by 20% and still by the #1 QB by a large margin over the field. All of you that talk regression to the mean and throw up Brady's numbers, and various other record breaking years post your projections for Vick as opposed to just saying he's gonna fail to live to expectations. What records did Vick break last year? He threw for 3000 and 21 which is 1700 yards less than Rivers and 9 fewer TDs. He threw for 1000+ less than Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning and Rodgers and about 10 less TDs than them. He had a very good passing year for him but he was right on the lower end of all those guys when it came to pure passing. His X factor is his running game obviously and are people thinking he's going to stop running? He ran right around his career avg last year (a little under I think). His rush TDs were high and I'd expect them to come down and his rush yards per game might come down a bit too.

I could understand the regression talk if he passed for 4200 yards and 37 tds and ran for 1000 and 12 but he wasn't close to those figures. He's still going to be running Reids offense that has been in the top 10 in passing the last 5 years and passes for about 4000 yards, Vick threw for 3000 last year do people expect him to throw for 2500? Seriously? Why are they going to suddenly drop off? He's essentially averaged what a passing QB has avereged in that offense and added his running ability to it which is a unique skill that he's had his whole career.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

However, I still think it's exactly the same type of situation. Regardless of HOW Vick scores the points, he scores the points. For every yard rushed, there's one less pass yard needed. Same with TDs, obviously.

How he scores the points is important. 1 rushing yard typically isn't worth the same as 1 passing yard. Vick has always been an elite running QB, now he's just become a student of the game and as a result he's learned how to be an elite passer, too.

Steve Young is probably the best comparison in terms of skill set, and he never sniffed that many points. His best year was 1994 with 425. He followed that up with a 34% regression to 281.

No, 1992 was his best year. Then he got even better in 1993. Then he got even better in 1994. Then he didn't regress in 1995, he missed time due to injury. He actually had his highest yards/game average in 1995, throwing for 3200 yards in 11 games.Steve Young's career is over, so it's easy to pick out his best year, and then point out that he wasn't as good the next year. In retrospect, we can always pick a player's best year. And you know what? You'll always be able to point out that they regressed the next year. That's a pointless exercise. The fact is that by your reasoning, you would've claimed in 1993 that Young was due to regress. Then when he didn't, you'd have claimed that he would regress in 1994. So on and so forth. Vick's career isn't over. We have no idea if 2010 was his best year ever, or if it was the start of a new phase of his career, one where he finally got serious about watching film, studying the game, and using his incredible natural talent to play quarterback for once. Ten years from now we might look back and see 2010 as an outlier or as the start of a period of dominance. He's only 31, same age Steve Young was in 1992.

 

[CalBear]

Steve Young is probably the best comparison in terms of skill set, and he never sniffed that many points. His best year was 1994 with 425. He followed that up with a 34% regression to 281.

Steve Young had two years in a row where he was the #1 overall player in VBD, both coming after he finished #4 overall in VBD in 1992. Yes, every great run must end, but not every great season is an outlier.

 

[-jb-]

However, I still think it's exactly the same type of situation. Regardless of HOW Vick scores the points, he scores the points. For every yard rushed, there's one less pass yard needed. Same with TDs, obviously.

How he scores the points is important. 1 rushing yard typically isn't worth the same as 1 passing yard. Vick has always been an elite running QB, now he's just become a student of the game and as a result he's learned how to be an elite passer, too.

Steve Young is probably the best comparison in terms of skill set, and he never sniffed that many points. His best year was 1994 with 425. He followed that up with a 34% regression to 281.

No, 1992 was his best year. Then he got even better in 1993. Then he got even better in 1994. Then he didn't regress in 1995, he missed time due to injury. He actually had his highest yards/game average in 1995, throwing for 3200 yards in 11 games.Steve Young's career is over, so it's easy to pick out his best year, and then point out that he wasn't as good the next year. In retrospect, we can always pick a player's best year. And you know what? You'll always be able to point out that they regressed the next year. That's a pointless exercise. The fact is that by your reasoning, you would've claimed in 1993 that Young was due to regress. Then when he didn't, you'd have claimed that he would regress in 1994. So on and so forth.

Vick's career isn't over. We have no idea if 2010 was his best year ever, or if it was the start of a new phase of his career, one where he finally got serious about watching film, studying the game, and using his incredible natural talent to play quarterback for once. Ten years from now we might look back and see 2010 as an outlier or as the start of a period of dominance. He's only 31, same age Steve Young was in 1992.

Steve Young, based on the scores posted on FBG historical stats page of this website:

1992: 362 points

1993: 367 points

1994: 425 points

1995: 281 points

1996: 234 points

That was his apex. Steve Young, SuperBowl champion and hall of famer, scored 26.56 points per game during his best year. Vick had 30.5 in the same scoring system.

Regarding how Vick scores, there are limitations within the game. It's only 60 minutes long. There is a diminishing return in terms of how he improves his game. If he increases his rush yardage, he is in all likelihood increasing his rushes. If he increases his rushes, he is likely decreasing his passing attempts. They both equate to seconds off the clock. Sure, he scores more points per yard gained on the ground...but it seems folks are assuming that his rush yards stay the same while his passing yards increase significantly. I can't see that happening, given the finite amount of snaps and minutes in a game.

My stance isn't that he won't be the best QB in the league this year, worthy of QB1. However, I do firmly believe that come the end of the year, he will not warrant the #1 overall pick.

Banger called me to the carpet on my projections, and I will do them tonight. I'm sure he'll come out as a high-ranking QB...

 

[-jb-]

Steve Young is probably the best comparison in terms of skill set, and he never sniffed that many points. His best year was 1994 with 425. He followed that up with a 34% regression to 281.

Steve Young had two years in a row where he was the #1 overall player in VBD, both coming after he finished #4 overall in VBD in 1992. Yes, every great run must end, but not every great season is an outlier.

#1 VBD <> worthy of #1 pick.

 

[cobalt_27]

Banger called me to the carpet on my projections, and I will do them tonight. I'm sure he'll come out as a high-ranking QB...

Yup. He will be and should be highly ranked. But, folks are just out of their minds with this. Wish I were playing in leagues where he was this outrageously over-valued...would be one less opponent to be concerned about.

 

[Sabertooth]

Probably a good idea for everyone to scan this thread.

Did someone in that thread correctly predict his freak season-ending injury?

No, but many people predicted he wouldn't repeat. And he didn't. Still hasn't.

 

[kinglochness]

I suggest that people supporting drafting Vick do some mock drafts. Do some were you take Vick and some where you don't. Then take the projections of your choice and add up the average weekly point totals for your teams. You'll find that taking Vick in round 1 is not worth it. What it comes down to is when you take Vick you replace your RB1 with a bench player. It's just not worth it.

I like your mindset. And I agree 100% with you. However, the people that are advocating taking Vick #1 overall obviously have him projected very, very high. So a mock draft with your projections obviously isn't going to value Vick nearly as high as with their projections. Just something to think about. If you project Vick with high enough numbers, he is worthy of the #1 pick. The real question is where does each individual have him projected.

 

[kinglochness]

You really just lectured me on intelligent discussion? You added absolutely nothing to the discussion here. You got mad because you obviously don't/can't understand my point. Then you agreed with me twice on what I said. And finally, you issued a random "No" at the end and told me I was wrong. Care to state for us why you think that way as opposed to just saying "no" with nothing to back it up. I'm really not trying to come across as arrogant, but you are making it really hard here pal. If you disagree with me, fine. But tell me why I've lost my mind.

Oh, trust me, I'm not mad and I'm not the one making it hard here. I thought I pointed out pretty clearly why you were wrong, but if you missed it we'll try again. Here's where we started:

Vick has the potential to simultaneously put up QB1 numbers and RB2 numbers.

Better have a nice backup QB and plenty of RB depth to cover you the 3-4 games Vick will be hurt this year.

As I pointed out, that doesn't make any sense, for numerous reasons. At its most obvious level, why would anyone need "plenty of RB depth" to cover if their QB gets hurt (regardless of who the QB is)? You can't start one of your backup RBs at QB if your QB gets injured in any normal league. In fact, even if Vick was a flex QB and you could replace him with an RB from your bench, that still wouldn't make sense because QBs are almost always more valuable than RBs as a flex, so even then you still wouldn't need RB depth, you'd need QB depth.I'm not sure how much more can be said to refute the idea that you'd need RB depth to replace an injured QB. However, if you want a more detailed explanation for why I disagree with you, perhaps you should explain in more detail why you think RB depth would be necessary for someone drafting Michael Vick as their QB.

My point is simply that if you draft Vick expecting to get QB1 and RB2 numbers, you would basically be losing 2 players worth of production if/when he goes down. I don't think we disagree here. My argument against valuing him that way is you won't be able to replace that value. That's what I sarcastically meant by "Better have a nice backup QB and plenty of RB depth to cover you the 3-4 games Vick will be hurt this year". My whole thinking is you will be weak at RB because you waited until the second round to get one. You are basically hanging all your championship hopes on a guy that's only played a full season once to do exactly that.

 

[kinglochness]

As has been pointed out already, some people have very a good year and then regress the next year. Others have a very good year and then follow it up with another very good year. Anecdotes about what Marino did after setting the single-season TD record, or what Brady did two years after setting the single-season TD record aren't especially useful. Vick didn't throw for 51 TDs last year. He had a good year passing, and supplemented that with a good year rushing - the combination of the two made him immensely valuable. It was definitely a "career year" type of performance, one he's unlikely to match. But by all accounts he is a different player than he was before he went to prison. I wouldn't be so sure that Vick's 2010 was an absurd outlier, like Marino's 48 or Brady's 50 TD seasons obviously were.

If you are saying Vick is more likely to stay close to his level than Marino and Brady because his numbers were strongly dependent on rushing numbers and theirs were dependent on passing TD numbers, I couldn't agree more. TD's are WAY more unpredictable than yardage in most cases. However, I personally still don't see him going at #1 being worth it.

 

[hotboyz]

Here are my Vick Projections 4096 pass yds 840 rush yds 27 tds under 40 yds 8 tds over 40 yds 15 turnovers and 6 bonus pt games meaning 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing in my league that equals about 497 pts and that i think is conservative numbers

In my league all tds under 40 yds are 6pts all td's over 40 yds 9 pts 5 bonus pts for milestones ie 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing. Last yr in my league Vick finished 7 pts behind payton Manning in only 11 games!! Prorated over an entire season he would have scored 587 pts The top QB in my league Payton scored 414! Thats a 170 pt difference People keep talking about Vick had this great season its not Vick its Andy Reids offense a couple of yrs there Mcnabb couldve put up similar numbers the only difference is Mcnabb cant rush for 850 yds!

 

[Banger]

Banger called me to the carpet on my projections, and I will do them tonight. I'm sure he'll come out as a high-ranking QB...

Yup. He will be and should be highly ranked. But, folks are just out of their minds with this. Wish I were playing in leagues where he was this outrageously over-valued...would be one less opponent to be concerned about.

Eagles offense before Vick has averaged about 4000 yards passing over the past 5 years. How many yards are they going to throw for this year? Who is going to be throwing the ball? Vick is still going to run, how much will he run? Numbers....

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

As has been pointed out already, some people have very a good year and then regress the next year. Others have a very good year and then follow it up with another very good year. Anecdotes about what Marino did after setting the single-season TD record, or what Brady did two years after setting the single-season TD record aren't especially useful. Vick didn't throw for 51 TDs last year. He had a good year passing, and supplemented that with a good year rushing - the combination of the two made him immensely valuable. It was definitely a "career year" type of performance, one he's unlikely to match. But by all accounts he is a different player than he was before he went to prison. I wouldn't be so sure that Vick's 2010 was an absurd outlier, like Marino's 48 or Brady's 50 TD seasons obviously were.

People say that b/c the #'s were so high, but why do we expect regression here? In fact last year was his first year back after being incarcerated. Both in terms of rust and in terms of familiarity w/the eagles offensive playbook, why won't he be better this year?

 

[Sabertooth]

Here are my Vick Projections 4096 pass yds 840 rush yds 27 tds under 40 yds 8 tds over 40 yds 15 turnovers and 6 bonus pt games meaning 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing in my league that equals about 497 pts and that i think is conservative numbersIn my league all tds under 40 yds are 6pts all td's over 40 yds 9 pts 5 bonus pts for milestones ie 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing. Last yr in my league Vick finished 7 pts behind payton Manning in only 11 games!! Prorated over an entire season he would have scored 587 pts The top QB in my league Payton scored 414! Thats a 170 pt difference People keep talking about Vick had this great season its not Vick its Andy Reids offense a couple of yrs there Mcnabb couldve put up similar numbers the only difference is Mcnabb cant rush for 850 yds!

So your projections of a career year are conservative..got it.

 

[We Tigers]

Since we've started talking projections...As I said earlier in the thread, I think he'll have a great year and be worthy of consideration as QB1. Not #1 overall, though.

16 games

306/501, 3600 yds, 24 TD, 15 INT

115 rushes, 770 yds, 6 TDs, 5 fumbles lost

Easily the best full season of his career.

 

[Sabertooth]

Since we've started talking projections...As I said earlier in the thread, I think he'll have a great year and be worthy of consideration as QB1. Not #1 overall, though. 16 games306/501, 3600 yds, 24 TD, 15 INT115 rushes, 770 yds, 6 TDs, 5 fumbles lostEasily the best full season of his career.

This is far more reasonable.

 

[shadyridr]

Since we've started talking projections...As I said earlier in the thread, I think he'll have a great year and be worthy of consideration as QB1. Not #1 overall, though. 16 games306/501, 3600 yds, 24 TD, 15 INT115 rushes, 770 yds, 6 TDs, 5 fumbles lostEasily the best full season of his career.

He threw 25 TDs last yr in 12 games. Id bump up the TD passes but everything else looks reasonable

 

[We Tigers]

He actually threw 21.

The hardest thing was projecting pass attempts that low, but even that's more passing than he averaged last year and throughout his career. I can't see a scenario where he throws as much as usually happens on Reid's Eagles, but it just seems strange to project an Eagles team that usually throws 550-570 times that way. I do wonder if Reid will try to get him to pass more now that Vick as starter is the real plan going into the year, or just let Vick be Vick.

 

[hotboyz]

Here are my Vick Projections 4096 pass yds 840 rush yds 27 tds under 40 yds 8 tds over 40 yds 15 turnovers and 6 bonus pt games meaning 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing in my league that equals about 497 pts and that i think is conservative numbersIn my league all tds under 40 yds are 6pts all td's over 40 yds 9 pts 5 bonus pts for milestones ie 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing. Last yr in my league Vick finished 7 pts behind payton Manning in only 11 games!! Prorated over an entire season he would have scored 587 pts The top QB in my league Payton scored 414! Thats a 170 pt difference People keep talking about Vick had this great season its not Vick its Andy Reids offense a couple of yrs there Mcnabb couldve put up similar numbers the only difference is Mcnabb cant rush for 850 yds!

So your projections of a career year are conservative..got it.

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

 

[shadyridr]

He actually threw 21. The hardest thing was projecting pass attempts that low, but even that's more passing than he averaged last year and throughout his career. I can't see a scenario where he throws as much as usually happens on Reid's Eagles, but it just seems strange to project an Eagles team that usually throws 550-570 times that way. I do wonder if Reid will try to get him to pass more now that Vick as starter is the real plan going into the year, or just let Vick be Vick.

my bad, not sure where I got 25 from.

 

[Banger]

Since we've started talking projections...As I said earlier in the thread, I think he'll have a great year and be worthy of consideration as QB1. Not #1 overall, though. 16 games306/501, 3600 yds, 24 TD, 15 INT115 rushes, 770 yds, 6 TDs, 5 fumbles lostEasily the best full season of his career.

Nice post. I think his int's will be lower, his pass TDs maybe a bit higher, passing yards probably 300 or so higher and his rushing numbers I think are spot on.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

In order to pass for 4000+ yards, Vick would need to match his Y/A from last year while attempting 500+ passes. I'm high on Vick this year, but I'm not sure I see either of those things happening.

 

[Sabertooth]

Here are my Vick Projections 4096 pass yds 840 rush yds 27 tds under 40 yds 8 tds over 40 yds 15 turnovers and 6 bonus pt games meaning 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing in my league that equals about 497 pts and that i think is conservative numbersIn my league all tds under 40 yds are 6pts all td's over 40 yds 9 pts 5 bonus pts for milestones ie 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing. Last yr in my league Vick finished 7 pts behind payton Manning in only 11 games!! Prorated over an entire season he would have scored 587 pts The top QB in my league Payton scored 414! Thats a 170 pt difference People keep talking about Vick had this great season its not Vick its Andy Reids offense a couple of yrs there Mcnabb couldve put up similar numbers the only difference is Mcnabb cant rush for 850 yds!

So your projections of a career year are conservative..got it.

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

Well, for one thing, you can't pass if you run. It'd be interested to see how many offensive plays the Eagles averaged.

 

[Banger]

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

In order to pass for 4000+ yards, Vick would need to match his Y/A from last year while attempting 500+ passes. I'm high on Vick this year, but I'm not sure I see either of those things happening.

Over the past 5 years the Eagles under Reid have throw for 561 - 4215 ('10), 552 - 4380 ('09), 605 - 3950 ('08), 576 - 4005 ('07), 542 - 4298 ('06). This is with Vick, Kolb, Garcia, McNabb and Feeley throwing throughout those years. Doesn't matter who the QB is, the stats are very consistent. A. Reid is still the coach and still the guy calling the plays and the team is built to go through the air.

 

[dgreen]

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

In order to pass for 4000+ yards, Vick would need to match his Y/A from last year while attempting 500+ passes. I'm high on Vick this year, but I'm not sure I see either of those things happening.

Or, to look at it another way: He needs to do exactly what he did last year over a full 16 games.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

In order to pass for 4000+ yards, Vick would need to match his Y/A from last year while attempting 500+ passes. I'm high on Vick this year, but I'm not sure I see either of those things happening.

Over the past 5 years the Eagles under Reid have throw for 561 - 4215 ('10), 552 - 4380 ('09), 605 - 3950 ('08), 576 - 4005 ('07), 542 - 4298 ('06). This is with Vick, Kolb, Garcia, McNabb and Feeley throwing throughout those years. Doesn't matter who the QB is, the stats are very consistent. A. Reid is still the coach and still the guy calling the plays and the team is built to go through the air.

Vick is much more likely than other QBs to pull the ball down and run with it on a called passing play though. He has a self-imposed ceiling on the number of passes he actually attempts, regardless of the number of pass plays the coach tries to run, imo - Reid might call 550 pass plays but that doesn't mean Vick is going to have 550 pass attempts. His 100+ rushing attempts aren't all going to be designed run plays.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

In order to pass for 4000+ yards, Vick would need to match his Y/A from last year while attempting 500+ passes. I'm high on Vick this year, but I'm not sure I see either of those things happening.

Or, to look at it another way: He needs to do exactly what he did last year over a full 16 games.

I agree that it's possible, I'm just not sure I see it happening. He may get to 500 attempts but I do expect his Y/A to regress somewhat (although not to his Atlanta levels).And I think it's reasonable to concede that he may miss a game or two, or get replaced by Young in garbage time, etc. I think a lot of things have to go perfectly for him to get to 4000 yards. I think it's much more reasonable to assume he'll end up in the 3200-3500 range, which combined with his rushing totals will still make him a top fantasy QB.

 

[We Tigers]

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

In order to pass for 4000+ yards, Vick would need to match his Y/A from last year while attempting 500+ passes. I'm high on Vick this year, but I'm not sure I see either of those things happening.

Over the past 5 years the Eagles under Reid have throw for 561 - 4215 ('10), 552 - 4380 ('09), 605 - 3950 ('08), 576 - 4005 ('07), 542 - 4298 ('06). This is with Vick, Kolb, Garcia, McNabb and Feeley throwing throughout those years. Doesn't matter who the QB is, the stats are very consistent. A. Reid is still the coach and still the guy calling the plays and the team is built to go through the air.

I absolutely agree, but I don't think all of Vick's rushes last year were designed. Many of those rushing attempts had to have come on called pass plays where, instead of throwing it away or making a questionable read, Vick tucked it and took off. That's part of why he's so lethal. One need only compare Vick with Kolb's relief duty last year to see that Kolb threw a ton more than Vick did in the same offense (189 attempts for Kolb in much, much less than half the time Vick reached his 372).To hit really lofty passing and rushing numbers, the Eagles RBs are going to have to see even less work than they usually do, which I don't think is sustainable. Vick was only on pace for about 470 attempts last year; something has to give unless Reid really wants to call pass plays 70% of the time, and just see what happens with his one-man show.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here are my Vick Projections 4096 pass yds 840 rush yds 27 tds under 40 yds 8 tds over 40 yds 15 turnovers and 6 bonus pt games meaning 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing in my league that equals about 497 pts and that i think is conservative numbersIn my league all tds under 40 yds are 6pts all td's over 40 yds 9 pts 5 bonus pts for milestones ie 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing. Last yr in my league Vick finished 7 pts behind payton Manning in only 11 games!! Prorated over an entire season he would have scored 587 pts The top QB in my league Payton scored 414! Thats a 170 pt difference People keep talking about Vick had this great season its not Vick its Andy Reids offense a couple of yrs there Mcnabb couldve put up similar numbers the only difference is Mcnabb cant rush for 850 yds!

So your projections of a career year are conservative..got it.

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

Well, for one thing, you can't pass if you run. It'd be interested to see how many offensive plays the Eagles averaged.

Almost every team comes in right around 1,000 plays in a season. For those that don't, they usually regress towards the mean of 1,000 in the next season. In fact, that was one of the main reasons I called Philip Rivers a sleeper last year, because he didn't need to even do anything to become more productive:http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=537949&view=findpost&p=12025900http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2010/10stuart_players_philiprivers.php

 

[hotboyz]

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

In order to pass for 4000+ yards, Vick would need to match his Y/A from last year while attempting 500+ passes. I'm high on Vick this year, but I'm not sure I see either of those things happening.

Over the past 5 years the Eagles under Reid have throw for 561 - 4215 ('10), 552 - 4380 ('09), 605 - 3950 ('08), 576 - 4005 ('07), 542 - 4298 ('06). This is with Vick, Kolb, Garcia, McNabb and Feeley throwing throughout those years. Doesn't matter who the QB is, the stats are very consistent. A. Reid is still the coach and still the guy calling the plays and the team is built to go through the air.

I absolutely agree, but I don't think all of Vick's rushes last year were designed. Many of those rushing attempts had to have come on called pass plays where, instead of throwing it away or making a questionable read, Vick tucked it and took off. That's part of why he's so lethal. One need only compare Vick with Kolb's relief duty last year to see that Kolb threw a ton more than Vick did in the same offense (189 attempts for Kolb in much, much less than half the time Vick reached his 372).To hit really lofty passing and rushing numbers, the Eagles RBs are going to have to see even less work than they usually do, which I don't think is sustainable. Vick was only on pace for about 470 attempts last year; something has to give unless Reid really wants to call pass plays 70% of the time, and just see what happens with his one-man show.

This is not true Vick had 365 attempts in 11 full games which is roughly 33 att per game he was on pace for 530 att per game he also had 97 rush att in 11 full games about 8 rush per game in Andy Reid's offense the passing numbers are on par with what they always do do you think after 10 yrs Reid is gonna suddenly change his offense? Andy Reid could careless about the running game! Vick has Desean Jackson Jeremy macklin and lesean McCoy to throw to and now rumors is they trying to talk Randy Moss out of retirement and u think they do this to run the ball? Hell Vick may have 600 att! Lmao I kno people are scared to make his projection but really look at the evidence

 

[hotboyz]

Yes conservative why is this hard to understand 850 yds rush is on par with what he's some his entire career the passing numbers fall in line with the normal numbers of Andy Reid's offense! I mean really this same offense made Jay geeky look like a good qb is these numbers really that fat fetched. The eagles offensive the last 2 yrs avg 8 y/a and they throw the ball 35 times a game do the math

In order to pass for 4000+ yards, Vick would need to match his Y/A from last year while attempting 500+ passes. I'm high on Vick this year, but I'm not sure I see either of those things happening.

Or, to look at it another way: He needs to do exactly what he did last year over a full 16 games.

I agree that it's possible, I'm just not sure I see it happening. He may get to 500 attempts but I do expect his Y/A to regress somewhat (although not to his Atlanta levels).And I think it's reasonable to concede that he may miss a game or two, or get replaced by Young in garbage time, etc. I think a lot of things have to go perfectly for him to get to 4000 yards. I think it's much more reasonable to assume he'll end up in the 3200-3500 range, which combined with his rushing totals will still make him a top fantasy QB.

When you look at yds per att don't just look at Vick look at the teams playmakers and team history the eagles y/a has increased since the arrival of Desean Jackson last yr Vick had 8 y/a the excact same number mcnabb had the yr before in the same offense!

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

hotboyz is like the non-shtick version of SWC.

Here are the number of QBs who had 500+ attempts and averaged 8+ Y/A in each of the past 20 years:

Year # of QBs2010 12009 52008 02007 22006 02005 02004 22003 02002 02001 12000 01999 01998 11997 01996 01995 01994 01993 01992 01991 0
I'm not saying it's impossible for Vick, but it's a rare feat. For a QB who has only averaged 8+ Y/A once in his career, and never surpassed 425 attempts (let alone 500), I'm not ready to assume Vick will be able to do it. I still think he'll have a very productive season but 4000 passing yards is more than I'm willing to project. Like I said, he has a self-imposed ceiling on his passing stats because of his proficiency in running the ball. If he does get to 500 passing attempts, then I see no way he also replicates his rushing totals of years past. Something's gotta give.

 

[hotboyz]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will change? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

 

[-jb-]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will change? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

His point is the same one I tried to make up a few posts. There are 60 minutes in a game. Ergo, there are a limited amount of snaps in a game. If one were to project that Vick will throw more passes while maintaining the same rush count, one would need to account for the additional snaps. So, if this is what you are proposing, where will those snaps come from? McCoy? Certainly possible, but one could also hypothesize that a better defense in 2011 will likely equate to less need to score points, and more need to run the clock. This would potentially mean more standard running plays. Again, totally possible...but we can't manufacture additional snaps. They need to come from an overall allocation.Curious to know your thoughts here.

 

[Sabertooth]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will change? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

His point is the same one I tried to make up a few posts. There are 60 minutes in a game. Ergo, there are a limited amount of snaps in a game. If one were to project that Vick will throw more passes while maintaining the same rush count, one would need to account for the additional snaps. So, if this is what you are proposing, where will those snaps come from? McCoy? Certainly possible, but one could also hypothesize that a better defense in 2011 will likely equate to less need to score points, and more need to run the clock. This would potentially mean more standard running plays. Again, totally possible...but we can't manufacture additional snaps. They need to come from an overall allocation.Curious to know your thoughts here.

His thoughts are not my concern. He's convinced Vick is the best player to ever play football. My concern is the more rational people that are actually looking for objective fantasy advice. They just need to know the risks of valuating a player so highly. For instance (and I know this is obviously not for you -jb-) but I digress:(Vick + Peyton Hillis) is not likely to score you more than (Adrian Peterson + Peyton Manning)

 

[CalBear]

(Vick + Peyton Hillis) is not likely to score you more than (Adrian Peterson + Peyton Manning)

Depends on your definition of "likely", eh? Certainly Vick+Hillis(+Kolb or other fill-in) scored you a lot more than Peterson+Manning did in 2010. I think there is significant risk for Hillis with Hardesty returning; Vick's risk really looks like only the injury risk.

 

[hotboyz]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will changeu? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

His point is the same one I tried to make up a few posts. There are 60 minutes in a game. Ergo, there are a limited amount of snaps in a game. If one were to project that Vick will throw more passes while maintaining the same rush count, one would need to account for the additional snaps. So, if this is what you are proposing, where will those snaps come from? McCoy? Certainly possible, but one could also hypothesize that a better defense in 2011 will likely equate to less need to score points, and more need to run the clock. This would potentially mean more standard running plays. Again, totally possible...but we can't manufacture additional snaps. They need to come from an overall allocation.Curious to know your thoughts here.

I can go along with this is the only thing that tempers my projections for Vick is there improved defense in philly which could cause shorter fields but it could cause them to get the ball more on offense! So if the eagles throw 34 times a game and he run 7 times that's 41 still got 19 plays left and Andy Reid prefers to throw the rock I can see this happening

 

[We Tigers]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will change? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

His point is the same one I tried to make up a few posts. There are 60 minutes in a game. Ergo, there are a limited amount of snaps in a game. If one were to project that Vick will throw more passes while maintaining the same rush count, one would need to account for the additional snaps. So, if this is what you are proposing, where will those snaps come from? McCoy? Certainly possible, but one could also hypothesize that a better defense in 2011 will likely equate to less need to score points, and more need to run the clock. This would potentially mean more standard running plays. Again, totally possible...but we can't manufacture additional snaps. They need to come from an overall allocation.Curious to know your thoughts here.

His thoughts are not my concern. He's convinced Vick is the best player to ever play football. My concern is the more rational people that are actually looking for objective fantasy advice. They just need to know the risks of valuating a player so highly. For instance (and I know this is obviously not for you -jb-) but I digress:(Vick + Peyton Hillis) is not likely to score you more than (Adrian Peterson + Peyton Manning)

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

 

[hotboyz]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will change? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

His point is the same one I tried to make up a few posts. There are 60 minutes in a game. Ergo, there are a limited amount of snaps in a game. If one were to project that Vick will throw more passes while maintaining the same rush count, one would need to account for the additional snaps. So, if this is what you are proposing, where will those snaps come from? McCoy? Certainly possible, but one could also hypothesize that a better defense in 2011 will likely equate to less need to score points, and more need to run the clock. This would potentially mean more standard running plays. Again, totally possible...but we can't manufacture additional snaps. They need to come from an overall allocation.Curious to know your thoughts here.

His thoughts are not my concern. He's convinced Vick is the best player to ever play football. My concern is the more rational people that are actually looking for objective fantasy advice. They just need to know the risks of valuating a player so highly. For instance (and I know this is obviously not for you -jb-) but I digress:(Vick + Peyton Hillis) is not likely to score you more than (Adrian Peterson + Peyton Manning)

Don't think Vick is best player ever it all depends on your league scoring in my league you will not get Peterson and Payton maybe Peterson and romo but I will take Vick nicks and blount. Sabertooth you never tell me why you think Andy Reid's passing attempts gonna go down

 

[Ministry of Pain]

As long as Vick is healthy he is going to account for about 250-300 yds of offense a week by air or by ground.

 

[hotboyz]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will change? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

His point is the same one I tried to make up a few posts. There are 60 minutes in a game. Ergo, there are a limited amount of snaps in a game. If one were to project that Vick will throw more passes while maintaining the same rush count, one would need to account for the additional snaps. So, if this is what you are proposing, where will those snaps come from? McCoy? Certainly possible, but one could also hypothesize that a better defense in 2011 will likely equate to less need to score points, and more need to run the clock. This would potentially mean more standard running plays. Again, totally possible...but we can't manufacture additional snaps. They need to come from an overall allocation.Curious to know your thoughts here.

His thoughts are not my concern. He's convinced Vick is the best player to ever play football. My concern is the more rational people that are actually looking for objective fantasy advice. They just need to know the risks of valuating a player so highly. For instance (and I know this is obviously not for you -jb-) but I digress:(Vick + Peyton Hillis) is not likely to score you more than (Adrian Peterson + Peyton Manning)

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

So tell me what's a unusual amount of touches is it 34 att per game? The eagles avg that the last 7 yrs is it 6-8 rushes s game? Last yr he was at 33att and 8 rush a game and that was his 1st full yr Is it not reasonable to expect an improvement in his 2nd yr? Ok u say he can't keep up 8 y/a but isn't that exactly what mcnabb did the season before so that's. 8 y/a 2 yrs in a row so is it farfetched to expect that again

 

[Andrew Garda]

edited to add: It feels like a lot of people - not saying all of you - but lots of people this season are chasing stats from last year. We usually say NO to do that so.... what's different this time? I wonder if in the end people are going to be guilty of something we all preach against.

Would you have been chasing last year's stats to go after Steve Young after his 1992 season, where he threw for 900 more yards and 8 more TDs than he had previously in his careeer? Or would you be setting yourself up to enjoy two of the greatest fantasy seasons in history?

Yeah THAT'S the rub. Are people chasing stats or are they getting on board a train leaving the station. Just an interesting aspect of this whole debate, IMO.

In reality, aren't we all basing our projections in large part on what players have done in previous years? It is, after all, the only way we can know if a player is even capable of such production. I think we all "chase stats" to one degree or another, don't we? And while everyone is fine with projecting most other players based upon a 16-game schedule, for some reason it's labeled unrealistic or "stat chasing" when applied to Vick. You said he has averaged 14.5 games a season. That's just 1.5 less than Manning. Hardly seems even worth mentioning.

Yes we chase stats to some extent but I'm talking about basing your strategy on his one phenomenal season.Perhaps not you personally but there is certainly a lot of Mike is a different player logic happening in which case we have one year to go on. Manning, Brees, Brady - we're talking multiple years to base a pick on. Rodgers not as many years but more than Vick.We all analyze stats. But we don't all chase stats. Maybe I'm parsing hairs, maybe not. Another good example is Stevie Johnson. I've been a huge fan of his since I met him in LA during the first Draftguys season. Watched him come along slow but sure. Not surprised by last year for the most part. But he ended up at 10 or 11 in most PPR leagues. Are you taking him as a borderline WR1? Probably not. Now it's not a perfect analogy. Johnson didn't have a WR season like Vick had a QB season. But my point is, if you draft Stevie as a WR1 you're chasing stats. The question is, if you draft Vick 1.1, are you chasing one great year? I think it's not an insane question given we have one year as a starter since jail. I think with Vick the challenge is looking at the past and present a little separate then balancing the two to try and predict the future. What he was, what he is and what he's going to be.