Mike vick #1 overal (1 Viewer)

[aburt19]

Fair point. But I wonder why Dodds would be projecting Vick to miss 2 games? BTW, 2 is being generous IMO. The numbers are what they are and I understand some people are drooling over Vick potentially playing 16 games. If your draft strategy is praying for an injury prone running QB to stay at that level AND play a full 16 games though, I think you are setting yourself up for failure.

That's simply not true. Matt Stafford right now is injury prone, let's have some perspective. Vick is a 4 time Pro Bowler and you can't do that by being injury prone. If you want to hate on Vick because you dislike the decisions he has made in life, fine...but don' tsay he is injury prone when that simply is not the case. He starts and finishes plenty of games...ask the New York Giants if they think Michael Vick is injury prone or the Washington Redskins last year.

The seasons when he played at Atlanta were when he was much younger. At age 31, he's more likely to get injured than at age 24. I think aprojection of 14 games is about right.

 

[-jb-]

My projections:

3352/20/11

627/10

QB2 behind Rodgers

 

[Reepicheep]

Lots of going round and round on this, it just comes down to everyone projects stats and prices risk differently.

The basic premise of Vick supporters can't be argued: If Vick does what he did last year over 16 games, he will more or less single-handedly win you your league. You can't say that about any other player. When you pair that upside with a reasonable floor of QB5 (after all he even manged this in Atlanta in 2006), it's a tempting proposition.

 

[Sabertooth]

(Vick + Peyton Hillis) is not likely to score you more than (Adrian Peterson + Peyton Manning)

Depends on your definition of "likely", eh? Certainly Vick+Hillis(+Kolb or other fill-in) scored you a lot more than Peterson+Manning did in 2010. I think there is significant risk for Hillis with Hardesty returning; Vick's risk really looks like only the injury risk.

We could play this game all day long. You know the point I was making. But hey, go ahead and snag Vick #1 overall, be my guest. I hope every redraft I play in does it.

 

[Sabertooth]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will change? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

His point is the same one I tried to make up a few posts. There are 60 minutes in a game. Ergo, there are a limited amount of snaps in a game. If one were to project that Vick will throw more passes while maintaining the same rush count, one would need to account for the additional snaps. So, if this is what you are proposing, where will those snaps come from? McCoy? Certainly possible, but one could also hypothesize that a better defense in 2011 will likely equate to less need to score points, and more need to run the clock. This would potentially mean more standard running plays. Again, totally possible...but we can't manufacture additional snaps. They need to come from an overall allocation.Curious to know your thoughts here.

His thoughts are not my concern. He's convinced Vick is the best player to ever play football. My concern is the more rational people that are actually looking for objective fantasy advice. They just need to know the risks of valuating a player so highly. For instance (and I know this is obviously not for you -jb-) but I digress:(Vick + Peyton Hillis) is not likely to score you more than (Adrian Peterson + Peyton Manning)

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

Exactly.

 

[Sabertooth]

Don't think Vick is best player ever it all depends on your league scoring in my league you will not get Peterson and Payton maybe Peterson and romo but I will take Vick nicks and blount. Sabertooth you never tell me why you think Andy Reid's passing attempts gonna go down

Sure I did. Maybe you missed it. When you call a pass and then run instead, you don't get a passing attempt. You have to divide the pie up. More QB rushes naturally equals less QB passes per called pass play. Unless you think they are going to cut into McCoy's rushes for some reason so that Vick can run more. I don't think they will.

 

[Sabertooth]

Ignoratio I kno it's hard to project this but look at the eagles history you have to stop ignoring it the eagles over let's say the last 7 yrs throw the ball 35 times a game! Why do you think this will change? Last yr Vick threw the ball 33 times. A game and still ran 8 times a game why don't you think this can happen again? So either u expect Andy Reid to change his offense he's been running for the last 10yrs or you expect Vick to all of a sudden stop running

His point is the same one I tried to make up a few posts. There are 60 minutes in a game. Ergo, there are a limited amount of snaps in a game. If one were to project that Vick will throw more passes while maintaining the same rush count, one would need to account for the additional snaps. So, if this is what you are proposing, where will those snaps come from? McCoy? Certainly possible, but one could also hypothesize that a better defense in 2011 will likely equate to less need to score points, and more need to run the clock. This would potentially mean more standard running plays. Again, totally possible...but we can't manufacture additional snaps. They need to come from an overall allocation.Curious to know your thoughts here.

His thoughts are not my concern. He's convinced Vick is the best player to ever play football. My concern is the more rational people that are actually looking for objective fantasy advice. They just need to know the risks of valuating a player so highly. For instance (and I know this is obviously not for you -jb-) but I digress:(Vick + Peyton Hillis) is not likely to score you more than (Adrian Peterson + Peyton Manning)

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

So tell me what's a unusual amount of touches is it 34 att per game? The eagles avg that the last 7 yrs is it 6-8 rushes s game? Last yr he was at 33att and 8 rush a game and that was his 1st full yr Is it not reasonable to expect an improvement in his 2nd yr? Ok u say he can't keep up 8 y/a but isn't that exactly what mcnabb did the season before so that's. 8 y/a 2 yrs in a row so is it farfetched to expect that again

You need to use some punctuation, I think your points get lost without it.

 

[hotboyz]

Ok lets do it like this sabertooth, how many attempts do u expect Vick to have this season?

 

[Sabertooth]

Ok lets do it like this sabertooth, how many attempts do u expect Vick to have this season?

Look. You are not going to convince me that Vick is going to rewrite history this season and I'm not going to convince you that he won't. He's a great player. He's not even the best QB, let alone the #1 overall.

 

[hotboyz]

Don't think Vick is best player ever it all depends on your league scoring in my league you will not get Peterson and Payton maybe Peterson and romo but I will take Vick nicks and blount. Sabertooth you never tell me why you think Andy Reid's passing attempts gonna go down

Sure I did. Maybe you missed it. When you call a pass and then run instead, you don't get a passing attempt. You have to divide the pie up. More QB rushes naturally equals less QB passes per called pass play. Unless you think they are going to cut into McCoy's rushes for some reason so that Vick can run more. I don't think they will.

When has Andy Reid ever given a damn about a running game? McCoy will get about 16 carries a game Vick will get 6-8 does this not fall in line with the history of the eagles offense?

 

[hotboyz]

Ok lets do it like this sabertooth, how many attempts do u expect Vick to have this season?

Look. You are not going to convince me that Vick is going to rewrite history this season and I'm not going to convince you that he won't. He's a great player. He's not even the best QB, let alone the #1 overall.

So why can't u answer the question? How many attempts in a 16 game season?

 

[Sabertooth]

Ok lets do it like this sabertooth, how many attempts do u expect Vick to have this season?

Look. You are not going to convince me that Vick is going to rewrite history this season and I'm not going to convince you that he won't. He's a great player. He's not even the best QB, let alone the #1 overall.

So why can't u answer the question? How many attempts in a 16 game season?

422

 

[hotboyz]

Ok lets do it like this sabertooth, how many attempts do u expect Vick to have this season?

Look. You are not going to convince me that Vick is going to rewrite history this season and I'm not going to convince you that he won't. He's a great player. He's not even the best QB, let alone the #1 overall.

So why can't u answer the question? How many attempts in a 16 game season?

422

ok i guess? 422/16 so 26 attempts per game? now over the last 5 yrs Andy Reids offense has averaged 568 attempts per season 568/16 35 attempts per game so you expect a 9 attempt drop in production? If thats the case then Lesean Mccoy should be a top 3 pick! if that happens that production has to go elsewhee right?? Over that same 5 yr span they have run the ball 415 times a season. That equates to 26 times a game. The most carries any 1 rb has had in this offense is Brian westbrook with 278 in 2007 (the eagles wr's that yr Reggie Brown and the great Chad Curtis)so at the most the Eagles lead back gets about 17 carries a game what happens to those other 9 carries?? last yr in Lesean Mccoy's "breakout" yr he had 207 carries in 15 games Vick had 97 in 11!

 

[hotboyz]

My projections:3352/20/11627/10QB2 behind Rodgers

So are you predicting Mike Vick to be injured? if so how many games do u expect him to miss?

 

[hotboyz]

Fair point. But I wonder why Dodds would be projecting Vick to miss 2 games? BTW, 2 is being generous IMO. The numbers are what they are and I understand some people are drooling over Vick potentially playing 16 games. If your draft strategy is praying for an injury prone running QB to stay at that level AND play a full 16 games though, I think you are setting yourself up for failure.

That's simply not true. Matt Stafford right now is injury prone, let's have some perspective. Vick is a 4 time Pro Bowler and you can't do that by being injury prone. If you want to hate on Vick because you dislike the decisions he has made in life, fine...but don' tsay he is injury prone when that simply is not the case. He starts and finishes plenty of games...ask the New York Giants if they think Michael Vick is injury prone or the Washington Redskins last year.

The seasons when he played at Atlanta were when he was much younger. At age 31, he's more likely to get injured than at age 24. I think aprojection of 14 games is about right.

Ok if you predict 14 games if he averages 7-8 pts a game more than the next qb in those 14 games if u can get a good backup is he not worth the risk at #1?

 

[hotboyz]

edited to add: It feels like a lot of people - not saying all of you - but lots of people this season are chasing stats from last year. We usually say NO to do that so.... what's different this time? I wonder if in the end people are going to be guilty of something we all preach against.

Would you have been chasing last year's stats to go after Steve Young after his 1992 season, where he threw for 900 more yards and 8 more TDs than he had previously in his careeer? Or would you be setting yourself up to enjoy two of the greatest fantasy seasons in history?

Yeah THAT'S the rub. Are people chasing stats or are they getting on board a train leaving the station. Just an interesting aspect of this whole debate, IMO.

In reality, aren't we all basing our projections in large part on what players have done in previous years? It is, after all, the only way we can know if a player is even capable of such production. I think we all "chase stats" to one degree or another, don't we? And while everyone is fine with projecting most other players based upon a 16-game schedule, for some reason it's labeled unrealistic or "stat chasing" when applied to Vick. You said he has averaged 14.5 games a season. That's just 1.5 less than Manning. Hardly seems even worth mentioning.

Yes we chase stats to some extent but I'm talking about basing your strategy on his one phenomenal season.Perhaps not you personally but there is certainly a lot of Mike is a different player logic happening in which case we have one year to go on. Manning, Brees, Brady - we're talking multiple years to base a pick on. Rodgers not as many years but more than Vick.We all analyze stats. But we don't all chase stats. Maybe I'm parsing hairs, maybe not. Another good example is Stevie Johnson. I've been a huge fan of his since I met him in LA during the first Draftguys season. Watched him come along slow but sure. Not surprised by last year for the most part. But he ended up at 10 or 11 in most PPR leagues. Are you taking him as a borderline WR1? Probably not.

Now it's not a perfect analogy. Johnson didn't have a WR season like Vick had a QB season. But my point is, if you draft Stevie as a WR1 you're chasing stats.

The question is, if you draft Vick 1.1, are you chasing one great year? I think it's not an insane question given we have one year as a starter since jail.

I think with Vick the challenge is looking at the past and present a little separate then balancing the two to try and predict the future. What he was, what he is and what he's going to be.

This is where i have a issue was it really a phenomanal season or was it on par with anything else that has happened in Andy Reid offense I mean honestly Mcanabb has put up these passing numbers before the difference is the rushing yds. That being said Vicks 690 yds rushing is below his career avereage! Why is it unreasonable to expect to put up passing numers that have always resulted from Andy Reids offense? And why cant we expect similar rushing totals from Vick that he has put up his entire career?

 

[Chief]

I don't have time to read all the posts, but I kept reading about missing 2 games or 4 games and the reasoning went along the lines of missing two or four games would be acceptable. How about missing nearly all 16 games? I drafted Brady #1 overall (like so many others and despite my better judgement) following his incredible record breaking year and he goes down for the season after one quarter. All my eggs were in that basket and it would be so for anyone drafting Vick #1 overall. Is Vick more or less likely to get injured than Brady? If or when that injury happens are you ready to deal with it? I don't think I could draft Vick #1 overall, but perhaps in the first round especially if your rules give more points for rushing TDs for QBs. Bottom line is draft who you want where you want. Sabretooth is right - you have your opinion, stick with it, live with it.

 

[Sabertooth]

Ok lets do it like this sabertooth, how many attempts do u expect Vick to have this season?

Look. You are not going to convince me that Vick is going to rewrite history this season and I'm not going to convince you that he won't. He's a great player. He's not even the best QB, let alone the #1 overall.

So why can't u answer the question? How many attempts in a 16 game season?

422

ok i guess? 422/16 so 26 attempts per game? now over the last 5 yrs Andy Reids offense has averaged 568 attempts per season 568/16 35 attempts per game so you expect a 9 attempt drop in production? If thats the case then Lesean Mccoy should be a top 3 pick! if that happens that production has to go elsewhee right?? Over that same 5 yr span they have run the ball 415 times a season. That equates to 26 times a game. The most carries any 1 rb has had in this offense is Brian westbrook with 278 in 2007 (the eagles wr's that yr Reggie Brown and the great Chad Curtis)so at the most the Eagles lead back gets about 17 carries a game what happens to those other 9 carries?? last yr in Lesean Mccoy's "breakout" yr he had 207 carries in 15 games Vick had 97 in 11!

Yes. Wait, are we talking about Vick or Andy Reid's offense without Vick?

 

[-jb-]

My projections:3352/20/11627/10QB2 behind Rodgers

So are you predicting Mike Vick to be injured? if so how many games do u expect him to miss?

I expect him to play in 14 games. Maybe for injury, maybe because they will not need him in the home stretch.

 

[We Tigers]

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

So tell me what's a unusual amount of touches is it 34 att per game? The eagles avg that the last 7 yrs is it 6-8 rushes s game? Last yr he was at 33att and 8 rush a game and that was his 1st full yr Is it not reasonable to expect an improvement in his 2nd yr? Ok u say he can't keep up 8 y/a but isn't that exactly what mcnabb did the season before so that's. 8 y/a 2 yrs in a row so is it farfetched to expect that again

McNabb actually achieved a YPA above 8.0 twice in his career before doing it a third time in 2009. He even hit 8.4 one season! However, we're not talking about everyone who hits 8.0 YPA--we're talking about people who hit 8.0 YPA on over 500 attempts, because that is a particular threshold at which Vick passes for 4000 yards (which you believe to be a conservative projection). That doesn't happen often at all. One reason is talent, accuracy, the quality of receivers, the fluctuating strength of opposing defenses, and everything that makes one quarterback different from the next. Another big reason is that YPA tends to be a better indicator of efficiency than it is of volume. Step back for a second and think about it--if a QB has a high YPA, he needs fewer attempts to move the ball down the field. He's more efficient. If you're passing at an 8 YPA clip, it takes you 5 passes to move 40 yards. If you're passing at a 6.5 YPA clip, you need a little over 6 pass attempts to travel the same distance. For fantasy purposes, it doesn't really matter--all we care about are the yards and TDs. It does matter, however, when you're projecting stats.It's very hard to have it both ways. If you think Vick is going to pass at 8 YPA or better, it's not likely that he's going to have the opportunity to get anywhere close to the 530 pass attempts you're suggesting as a baseline, and certainly not the 600 you mentioned at one point. He won't need to! The team really has to be crazy all-in on passing to achieve that YPA at that volume of attempts, and I'd argue that Vick's proclivity for rushing (and removing pass attempts for himself, really) would make it nearly impossible. I know he was "on pace" last year, and you can repeat that till you're blue in the fingers, but most people should at least understand the huge challenge that would be for both Vick and the team.

 

[shadyridr]

I don't have time to read all the posts, but I kept reading about missing 2 games or 4 games and the reasoning went along the lines of missing two or four games would be acceptable. How about missing nearly all 16 games? I drafted Brady #1 overall (like so many others and despite my better judgement) following his incredible record breaking year and he goes down for the season after one quarter. All my eggs were in that basket and it would be so for anyone drafting Vick #1 overall. Is Vick more or less likely to get injured than Brady? If or when that injury happens are you ready to deal with it? I don't think I could draft Vick #1 overall, but perhaps in the first round especially if your rules give more points for rushing TDs for QBs. Bottom line is draft who you want where you want. Sabretooth is right - you have your opinion, stick with it, live with it.

Cant you say the same thing if Foster got hurt in the first qtr of the first game with a season ending injury?

 

[kinglochness]

Lots of going round and round on this, it just comes down to everyone projects stats and prices risk differently.The basic premise of Vick supporters can't be argued: If Vick does what he did last year over 16 games, he will more or less single-handedly win you your league. You can't say that about any other player. When you pair that upside with a reasonable floor of QB5 (after all he even manged this in Atlanta in 2006), it's a tempting proposition.

I agree 100%. Personally, I think he's being overvalued by a lot of people.

 

[Andrew Garda]

edited to add: It feels like a lot of people - not saying all of you - but lots of people this season are chasing stats from last year. We usually say NO to do that so.... what's different this time? I wonder if in the end people are going to be guilty of something we all preach against.

Would you have been chasing last year's stats to go after Steve Young after his 1992 season, where he threw for 900 more yards and 8 more TDs than he had previously in his careeer? Or would you be setting yourself up to enjoy two of the greatest fantasy seasons in history?

Yeah THAT'S the rub. Are people chasing stats or are they getting on board a train leaving the station. Just an interesting aspect of this whole debate, IMO.

In reality, aren't we all basing our projections in large part on what players have done in previous years? It is, after all, the only way we can know if a player is even capable of such production. I think we all "chase stats" to one degree or another, don't we? And while everyone is fine with projecting most other players based upon a 16-game schedule, for some reason it's labeled unrealistic or "stat chasing" when applied to Vick. You said he has averaged 14.5 games a season. That's just 1.5 less than Manning. Hardly seems even worth mentioning.

Yes we chase stats to some extent but I'm talking about basing your strategy on his one phenomenal season.Perhaps not you personally but there is certainly a lot of Mike is a different player logic happening in which case we have one year to go on. Manning, Brees, Brady - we're talking multiple years to base a pick on. Rodgers not as many years but more than Vick.We all analyze stats. But we don't all chase stats. Maybe I'm parsing hairs, maybe not. Another good example is Stevie Johnson. I've been a huge fan of his since I met him in LA during the first Draftguys season. Watched him come along slow but sure. Not surprised by last year for the most part. But he ended up at 10 or 11 in most PPR leagues. Are you taking him as a borderline WR1? Probably not.

Now it's not a perfect analogy. Johnson didn't have a WR season like Vick had a QB season. But my point is, if you draft Stevie as a WR1 you're chasing stats.

The question is, if you draft Vick 1.1, are you chasing one great year? I think it's not an insane question given we have one year as a starter since jail.

I think with Vick the challenge is looking at the past and present a little separate then balancing the two to try and predict the future. What he was, what he is and what he's going to be.

This is where i have a issue was it really a phenomanal season or was it on par with anything else that has happened in Andy Reid offense I mean honestly Mcanabb has put up these passing numbers before the difference is the rushing yds. That being said Vicks 690 yds rushing is below his career avereage! Why is it unreasonable to expect to put up passing numers that have always resulted from Andy Reids offense? And why cant we expect similar rushing totals from Vick that he has put up his entire career?

Reid has NEVER had a QB run 99 times in a year. Will it happen again twice in a year with Vick? I don't know.I will say that if you're telling me that the pass attempts will go up and his rushing attempts stay the same or rise.... I find that hard to fathom given it's happened all of one time for Vick previously and never again.

As for is it on par with anything else Reid has done.... well, he had McNabb rush 86 times and throw 569 times in 2000 but never happened again.

so no, it's NOT on par with Reid's motif which (generously) is 450 or so attempts and 50-60 rush attempts.

So based on Reid's history it doesn't happen.

I would find it more likely that Vick runs as much or more and his pass attempts stay about the same because that's exactly what has happened Vick's whole career. He runs a ton and throws less. Now he may throw more.... but something has to give because there are only so many plays to go around. And given Reid's history (or his QBs history) it's going to settle down a bit.

 

[GCP]

I'm picking in the 6 hole and I'm taking Mike Vick if he's there. Here's why.

First and foremost, the Eagles should be improved, particularly on defense, and they were arguably the 2nd best team in football at the end of last season. This is a team that should win 11 or 12 games, it's an exciting team in a competitive division, and they should be highly motivated to silence their critics and build upon last season's momentum.

Secondly, Vick is the greatest running QB of all time and he's starting for a team with great weapons (meaning you can't simply spy him or blitz 7 every play). In my league, we score 4 for a passing TD and 6 for a rushing TD. This rewards the running quarterbacks. We also tack on a point for any scoring play over 50 yards and he figures to be involved on a few more of those than, say, Tom Brady.

Third, his injury history is largely overblown. He broke his leg once and last year's injury against the Redskins was a bit on the fluky side. And to echo a point I've seen a few times in this thread, a full bore Vick for 13 games is better than just about anyone else (because you can play a QB the weeks he sits). The real concern is if Vick suffers a turf toe or something that limits his mobility or willingness to run.

Fourth, and don't underestimate this, although it is certainly subject to change as the season goes on, but Mike Vick is currently in a contract year. He's 31 and will be 32 next season so this next contract represents the biggest and last payday he's likely to ever receive. I haven't really seen this talked about and I know Mike's in negotiations on a long term deal. It's possible they lock him up and remove this particular incentive but if they don't, Mike will be balls to the wall to get that kwan.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think I could take him 1st. Too much risk when you can snag a thoroughbred like AP and still get Romo on the other end of the snake. But a little lower in the 1st round, particularly after the top 5 RBs are off the board, I think the reward is worth it.

 

[hotboyz]

edited to add: It feels like a lot of people - not saying all of you - but lots of people this season are chasing stats from last year. We usually say NO to do that so.... what's different this time? I wonder if in the end people are going to be guilty of something we all preach against.

Would you have been chasing last year's stats to go after Steve Young after his 1992 season, where he threw for 900 more yards and 8 more TDs than he had previously in his careeer? Or would you be setting yourself up to enjoy two of the greatest fantasy seasons in history?

Yeah THAT'S the rub. Are people chasing stats or are they getting on board a train leaving the station. Just an interesting aspect of this whole debate, IMO.

In reality, aren't we all basing our projections in large part on what players have done in previous years? It is, after all, the only way we can know if a player is even capable of such production. I think we all "chase stats" to one degree or another, don't we? And while everyone is fine with projecting most other players based upon a 16-game schedule, for some reason it's labeled unrealistic or "stat chasing" when applied to Vick. You said he has averaged 14.5 games a season. That's just 1.5 less than Manning. Hardly seems even worth mentioning.

Yes we chase stats to some extent but I'm talking about basing your strategy on his one phenomenal season.Perhaps not you personally but there is certainly a lot of Mike is a different player logic happening in which case we have one year to go on. Manning, Brees, Brady - we're talking multiple years to base a pick on. Rodgers not as many years but more than Vick.We all analyze stats. But we don't all chase stats. Maybe I'm parsing hairs, maybe not. Another good example is Stevie Johnson. I've been a huge fan of his since I met him in LA during the first Draftguys season. Watched him come along slow but sure. Not surprised by last year for the most part. But he ended up at 10 or 11 in most PPR leagues. Are you taking him as a borderline WR1? Probably not.

Now it's not a perfect analogy. Johnson didn't have a WR season like Vick had a QB season. But my point is, if you draft Stevie as a WR1 you're chasing stats.

The question is, if you draft Vick 1.1, are you chasing one great year? I think it's not an insane question given we have one year as a starter since jail.

I think with Vick the challenge is looking at the past and present a little separate then balancing the two to try and predict the future. What he was, what he is and what he's going to be.

This is where i have a issue was it really a phenomanal season or was it on par with anything else that has happened in Andy Reid offense I mean honestly Mcanabb has put up these passing numbers before the difference is the rushing yds. That being said Vicks 690 yds rushing is below his career avereage! Why is it unreasonable to expect to put up passing numers that have always resulted from Andy Reids offense? And why cant we expect similar rushing totals from Vick that he has put up his entire career?

Reid has NEVER had a QB run 99 times in a year. Will it happen again twice in a year with Vick? I don't know.I will say that if you're telling me that the pass attempts will go up and his rushing attempts stay the same or rise.... I find that hard to fathom given it's happened all of one time for Vick previously and never again.

As for is it on par with anything else Reid has done.... well, he had McNabb rush 86 times and throw 569 times in 2000 but never happened again.

so no, it's NOT on par with Reid's motif which (generously) is 450 or so attempts and 50-60 rush attempts.

So based on Reid's history it doesn't happen.

I would find it more likely that Vick runs as much or more and his pass attempts stay about the same because that's exactly what has happened Vick's whole career. He runs a ton and throws less. Now he may throw more.... but something has to give because there are only so many plays to go around. And given Reid's history (or his QBs history) it's going to settle down a bit.

Vick threw the ball 33.18 times a game if he stays the same as you suggest thats 530 att he rushed 8.81 times a game if that goes up as you suggest lets say 9.5 times a game thats 152 rushes now lets say instead of 8 yds per att he throws 7.6 yds per att thats 4028 yds and for argument sake he rushes 152 times his carrer per carry avg is 7.1 but ill give him the 6.8 he had last season thats 1033 rush yds now factor in tds now you tell me this would not be the best fantasy season ever!

I project him at about 540 att. Over last 5 yrs the eagles avg 568 att per game, now when you talk about qb rush totals Vick is something fantasy football and the Nfl has never seen a qb with 4.4 speed. Andy Reid has never had a talent like this at qb, its not like vicks runs are scripted ther improvisations. So he is gonna run. People on here are not making projections using history or numbers they are projecting using there gut feelings!

 

[hotboyz]

My projections:3352/20/11627/10QB2 behind Rodgers

So are you predicting Mike Vick to be injured? if so how many games do u expect him to miss?

I expect him to play in 14 games. Maybe for injury, maybe because they will not need him in the home stretch.

i can buy that. thats my fear, it would take a lot of balls for me to draft him there because of this

 

[hotboyz]

Ok lets do it like this sabertooth, how many attempts do u expect Vick to have this season?

Look. You are not going to convince me that Vick is going to rewrite history this season and I'm not going to convince you that he won't. He's a great player. He's not even the best QB, let alone the #1 overall.

So why can't u answer the question? How many attempts in a 16 game season?

422

ok i guess? 422/16 so 26 attempts per game? now over the last 5 yrs Andy Reids offense has averaged 568 attempts per season 568/16 35 attempts per game so you expect a 9 attempt drop in production? If thats the case then Lesean Mccoy should be a top 3 pick! if that happens that production has to go elsewhee right?? Over that same 5 yr span they have run the ball 415 times a season. That equates to 26 times a game. The most carries any 1 rb has had in this offense is Brian westbrook with 278 in 2007 (the eagles wr's that yr Reggie Brown and the great Chad Curtis)so at the most the Eagles lead back gets about 17 carries a game what happens to those other 9 carries?? last yr in Lesean Mccoy's "breakout" yr he had 207 carries in 15 games Vick had 97 in 11!

Yes. Wait, are we talking about Vick or Andy Reid's offense without Vick?

Bingo!! Thats the billion dollar question when you project players you have to factor in the system and offense they playing in Andy Reid Loves to throw the ball Vick loves to run out of the pocket its that combination thats developing into the perfect storm of what i think could be a historical season. I am in no way guranteeing my projections and i dont think I have the balls to make that pick but if i am right whoever drafts vick just needs a aveerage draft after that to win a championship

 

[hotboyz]

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

So tell me what's a unusual amount of touches is it 34 att per game? The eagles avg that the last 7 yrs is it 6-8 rushes s game? Last yr he was at 33att and 8 rush a game and that was his 1st full yr Is it not reasonable to expect an improvement in his 2nd yr? Ok u say he can't keep up 8 y/a but isn't that exactly what mcnabb did the season before so that's. 8 y/a 2 yrs in a row so is it farfetched to expect that again

McNabb actually achieved a YPA above 8.0 twice in his career before doing it a third time in 2009. He even hit 8.4 one season! However, we're not talking about everyone who hits 8.0 YPA--we're talking about people who hit 8.0 YPA on over 500 attempts, because that is a particular threshold at which Vick passes for 4000 yards (which you believe to be a conservative projection). That doesn't happen often at all. One reason is talent, accuracy, the quality of receivers, the fluctuating strength of opposing defenses, and everything that makes one quarterback different from the next. Another big reason is that YPA tends to be a better indicator of efficiency than it is of volume. Step back for a second and think about it--if a QB has a high YPA, he needs fewer attempts to move the ball down the field. He's more efficient. If you're passing at an 8 YPA clip, it takes you 5 passes to move 40 yards. If you're passing at a 6.5 YPA clip, you need a little over 6 pass attempts to travel the same distance. For fantasy purposes, it doesn't really matter--all we care about are the yards and TDs. It does matter, however, when you're projecting stats.It's very hard to have it both ways. If you think Vick is going to pass at 8 YPA or better, it's not likely that he's going to have the opportunity to get anywhere close to the 530 pass attempts you're suggesting as a baseline, and certainly not the 600 you mentioned at one point. He won't need to! The team really has to be crazy all-in on passing to achieve that YPA at that volume of attempts, and I'd argue that Vick's proclivity for rushing (and removing pass attempts for himself, really) would make it nearly impossible. I know he was "on pace" last year, and you can repeat that till you're blue in the fingers, but most people should at least understand the huge challenge that would be for both Vick and the team.

ok lets remeber 8 yds per attempt does not mean he completes every attempt its just yds divided by attempts hell he could throw a 1 yd pas that goes 90 for a td thats 90 yds per attempt! again The eagles average 568 attempts per season for the last 5 yrs so am i to believe they get a more talented qb with a stronger arm the most explosive Wr in the game and 2 of the best pass catching rb in football and there pass atempts will go down?? then you want me to believ its no way a qb with 4.4 speed doesnt pull the ball down and run 6-8 times a game he cant do 2 carries a quarter?? Are you serious?? really think about this for a minute since Andy Reid has been coach how many times have you heard commentators,fans Nfl Pundits say to Andy Reid you need to run the ball more and how many times has Andy Reid actually heeded this advice? But now that he has better players at qb and wr now hes gonna listen??

 

[hotboyz]

I don't have time to read all the posts, but I kept reading about missing 2 games or 4 games and the reasoning went along the lines of missing two or four games would be acceptable. How about missing nearly all 16 games? I drafted Brady #1 overall (like so many others and despite my better judgement) following his incredible record breaking year and he goes down for the season after one quarter. All my eggs were in that basket and it would be so for anyone drafting Vick #1 overall. Is Vick more or less likely to get injured than Brady? If or when that injury happens are you ready to deal with it? I don't think I could draft Vick #1 overall, but perhaps in the first round especially if your rules give more points for rushing TDs for QBs. Bottom line is draft who you want where you want. Sabretooth is right - you have your opinion, stick with it, live with it.

Cant you say the same thing if Foster got hurt in the first qtr of the first game with a season ending injury?

This stuff is getting hilarious

 

[-jb-]

Bingo!! Thats the billion dollar question when you project players you have to factor in the system and offense they playing in Andy Reid Loves to throw the ball Vick loves to run out of the pocket its that combination thats developing into the perfect storm of what i think could be a historical season. I am in no way guranteeing my projections and i dont think I have the balls to make that pick but if i am right whoever drafts vick just needs a aveerage draft after that to win a championship

You keep talking about more passes and more rushes. You. Can't. Have. Both.

 

[hotboyz]

I'm picking in the 6 hole and I'm taking Mike Vick if he's there. Here's why.

First and foremost, the Eagles should be improved, particularly on defense, and they were arguably the 2nd best team in football at the end of last season. This is a team that should win 11 or 12 games, it's an exciting team in a competitive division, and they should be highly motivated to silence their critics and build upon last season's momentum.

Secondly, Vick is the greatest running QB of all time and he's starting for a team with great weapons (meaning you can't simply spy him or blitz 7 every play). In my league, we score 4 for a passing TD and 6 for a rushing TD. This rewards the running quarterbacks. We also tack on a point for any scoring play over 50 yards and he figures to be involved on a few more of those than, say, Tom Brady.

Third, his injury history is largely overblown. He broke his leg once and last year's injury against the Redskins was a bit on the fluky side. And to echo a point I've seen a few times in this thread, a full bore Vick for 13 games is better than just about anyone else (because you can play a QB the weeks he sits). The real concern is if Vick suffers a turf toe or something that limits his mobility or willingness to run.

Fourth, and don't underestimate this, although it is certainly subject to change as the season goes on, but Mike Vick is currently in a contract year. He's 31 and will be 32 next season so this next contract represents the biggest and last payday he's likely to ever receive. I haven't really seen this talked about and I know Mike's in negotiations on a long term deal. It's possible they lock him up and remove this particular incentive but if they don't, Mike will be balls to the wall to get that kwan.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think I could take him 1st. Too much risk when you can snag a thoroughbred like AP and still get Romo on the other end of the snake. But a little lower in the 1st round, particularly after the top 5 RBs are off the board, I think the reward is worth it.

Is it really that much more of a risk Ap has arguably on of the worst O-line in the NFC and Romo missed 12 games last yr

 

[hotboyz]

Bingo!! Thats the billion dollar question when you project players you have to factor in the system and offense they playing in Andy Reid Loves to throw the ball Vick loves to run out of the pocket its that combination thats developing into the perfect storm of what i think could be a historical season. I am in no way guranteeing my projections and i dont think I have the balls to make that pick but if i am right whoever drafts vick just needs a aveerage draft after that to win a championship

You keep talking about more passes and more rushes. You. Can't. Have. Both.

ok it doesnt have to be more. he was on pace for 530 attempts last yr and he ran the ball 8 times a game. Lets say he throws the ball 540 times a game ( a diference of .62 attempts per game) lol and only rushes 6.5 times a game thats 104 rushes ( even tho he avg 120 yds rush per season and was on pace for 140 last season)540 attempts at 7.5 yds per attempt thats 4050 yds 104 rushes times his career avg of 7.1 thats 728 rush yds this season he had a total of 21 pass tds last yr and 9 rush tds last season in 11 games! lets say he throws for 28 tds and rushes for 5 this is not one of the greatest seasons ever! and worthy of the #1 pick??

 

[-jb-]

Bingo!! Thats the billion dollar question when you project players you have to factor in the system and offense they playing in Andy Reid Loves to throw the ball Vick loves to run out of the pocket its that combination thats developing into the perfect storm of what i think could be a historical season. I am in no way guranteeing my projections and i dont think I have the balls to make that pick but if i am right whoever drafts vick just needs a aveerage draft after that to win a championship

You keep talking about more passes and more rushes. You. Can't. Have. Both.

ok it doesnt have to be more passes he was on pace for 530 attempts last yr and he ran the ball 8 times a game. Lets say he throws the ball 540 times a game and only rushes 6.5 times a game thats 104 rushes ( even tho he avg 120 or rush per season)540 attempts at 7.5 yds per attempt thats 4050 yds 104 rushes times his career avg of 7.1 thats 728 rush yds this season he had a total of 21 passtds last yr and 9 rush tds last season in 11 games! lets say he throws for 28 tds and rushes for 5 this is not one of the greatest seasons ecer! and worthy of the #1 pick??

Another thing you keep doing is taking stats from Vick's career average, and some from Reid's. Again, you can't have both. It's cherry-picking.

 

[We Tigers]

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

So tell me what's a unusual amount of touches is it 34 att per game? The eagles avg that the last 7 yrs is it 6-8 rushes s game? Last yr he was at 33att and 8 rush a game and that was his 1st full yr Is it not reasonable to expect an improvement in his 2nd yr? Ok u say he can't keep up 8 y/a but isn't that exactly what mcnabb did the season before so that's. 8 y/a 2 yrs in a row so is it farfetched to expect that again

McNabb actually achieved a YPA above 8.0 twice in his career before doing it a third time in 2009. He even hit 8.4 one season! However, we're not talking about everyone who hits 8.0 YPA--we're talking about people who hit 8.0 YPA on over 500 attempts, because that is a particular threshold at which Vick passes for 4000 yards (which you believe to be a conservative projection). That doesn't happen often at all. One reason is talent, accuracy, the quality of receivers, the fluctuating strength of opposing defenses, and everything that makes one quarterback different from the next. Another big reason is that YPA tends to be a better indicator of efficiency than it is of volume. Step back for a second and think about it--if a QB has a high YPA, he needs fewer attempts to move the ball down the field. He's more efficient. If you're passing at an 8 YPA clip, it takes you 5 passes to move 40 yards. If you're passing at a 6.5 YPA clip, you need a little over 6 pass attempts to travel the same distance. For fantasy purposes, it doesn't really matter--all we care about are the yards and TDs. It does matter, however, when you're projecting stats.

It's very hard to have it both ways. If you think Vick is going to pass at 8 YPA or better, it's not likely that he's going to have the opportunity to get anywhere close to the 530 pass attempts you're suggesting as a baseline, and certainly not the 600 you mentioned at one point. He won't need to! The team really has to be crazy all-in on passing to achieve that YPA at that volume of attempts, and I'd argue that Vick's proclivity for rushing (and removing pass attempts for himself, really) would make it nearly impossible. I know he was "on pace" last year, and you can repeat that till you're blue in the fingers, but most people should at least understand the huge challenge that would be for both Vick and the team.

ok lets remeber 8 yds per attempt does not mean he completes every attempt its just yds divided by attempts hell he could throw a 1 yd pas that goes 90 for a td thats 90 yds per attempt!

...no, it would be a single 90 yard TD pass. I'm beginning to understand why this is so hard to understand.Look, the bottom line is that you're suggesting Vick does something no quarterback before him ever has done, and that it's not even a question that he'll do it. Those are the conservative estimates, you've said. In doing so, you're looking only at the Eagles, at less than one year of production in that environment, and ignoring the rest of his career as well (except for the stats from it you like, that is, like his increased rushing average). As long as people understand that's what they're saying when they suggest he'll throw for 4200 yards, rush for 1000, and score a bazillion touchdowns, more power to them.

My final word is that you don't tend to win fantasy by expecting record-breaking years with the frequency of a trip to the grocery store.

 

[hotboyz]

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

So tell me what's a unusual amount of touches is it 34 att per game? The eagles avg that the last 7 yrs is it 6-8 rushes s game? Last yr he was at 33att and 8 rush a game and that was his 1st full yr Is it not reasonable to expect an improvement in his 2nd yr? Ok u say he can't keep up 8 y/a but isn't that exactly what mcnabb did the season before so that's. 8 y/a 2 yrs in a row so is it farfetched to expect that again

McNabb actually achieved a YPA above 8.0 twice in his career before doing it a third time in 2009. He even hit 8.4 one season! However, we're not talking about everyone who hits 8.0 YPA--we're talking about people who hit 8.0 YPA on over 500 attempts, because that is a particular threshold at which Vick passes for 4000 yards (which you believe to be a conservative projection). That doesn't happen often at all. One reason is talent, accuracy, the quality of receivers, the fluctuating strength of opposing defenses, and everything that makes one quarterback different from the next. Another big reason is that YPA tends to be a better indicator of efficiency than it is of volume. Step back for a second and think about it--if a QB has a high YPA, he needs fewer attempts to move the ball down the field. He's more efficient. If you're passing at an 8 YPA clip, it takes you 5 passes to move 40 yards. If you're passing at a 6.5 YPA clip, you need a little over 6 pass attempts to travel the same distance. For fantasy purposes, it doesn't really matter--all we care about are the yards and TDs. It does matter, however, when you're projecting stats.

It's very hard to have it both ways. If you think Vick is going to pass at 8 YPA or better, it's not likely that he's going to have the opportunity to get anywhere close to the 530 pass attempts you're suggesting as a baseline, and certainly not the 600 you mentioned at one point. He won't need to! The team really has to be crazy all-in on passing to achieve that YPA at that volume of attempts, and I'd argue that Vick's proclivity for rushing (and removing pass attempts for himself, really) would make it nearly impossible. I know he was "on pace" last year, and you can repeat that till you're blue in the fingers, but most people should at least understand the huge challenge that would be for both Vick and the team.

ok lets remeber 8 yds per attempt does not mean he completes every attempt its just yds divided by attempts hell he could throw a 1 yd pas that goes 90 for a td thats 90 yds per attempt!

...no, it would be a single 90 yard TD pass. I'm beginning to understand why this is so hard to understand.Look, the bottom line is that you're suggesting Vick does something no quarterback before him ever has done, and that it's not even a question that he'll do it. Those are the conservative estimates, you've said. In doing so, you're looking only at the Eagles, at less than one year of production in that environment, and ignoring the rest of his career as well (except for the stats from it you like, that is, like his increased rushing average). As long as people understand that's what they're saying when they suggest he'll throw for 4200 yards, rush for 1000, and score a bazillion touchdowns, more power to them. My final word is that you don't tend to win fantasy by expecting record-breaking years with the frequency of a trip to the grocery store.

No if he throws 1 pass and it goes for a 90 yard td does that not qualify for a pass attempt so if thats the only attempt thats 90 yds per attempt I never said my projections were not in question hell when i worked them out for myself i couldnt believe what i was seeing. Ive been playing FF for 15 yrs ive NEVER DRAFTED A qb IN THE 1ST RD! i guess my question is how do you guys do projections if you do true projections based on numbers and not gut feeling of " aww he'll never do that again" how can you not predict big numbers for him in this offense. The only way in mye eyes is to assume injury,but then everyone says "you can get romo later" why is no one assuming injury for him? How many concussions has aaron Rogers had? No one is predicting injuries for him i think some folks manipulate there projections just to make them sound right thats all im suggesting i was hoping i was wrong about Vick because I wont have him. I thought by starting this thread someone would tshow me something I havent thought of but it hasnt happened its just strengthened my believe in my projections!

 

[cobalt_27]

That's a very good and clear way of putting what we've sort of been dancing around. Vick has big upside, but it will take a lot of things breaking right--ypa that defies history, unusually high number of QB touches, high number of rushing TDs, no injury, minimal garbage time duty for backups, no increase in carries for Eagles RBs, continuation of career highs in almost all stats--to make him + RB16 or so beat out a very reliable Peterson + QB4 or 5 combo.

So tell me what's a unusual amount of touches is it 34 att per game? The eagles avg that the last 7 yrs is it 6-8 rushes s game? Last yr he was at 33att and 8 rush a game and that was his 1st full yr Is it not reasonable to expect an improvement in his 2nd yr? Ok u say he can't keep up 8 y/a but isn't that exactly what mcnabb did the season before so that's. 8 y/a 2 yrs in a row so is it farfetched to expect that again

McNabb actually achieved a YPA above 8.0 twice in his career before doing it a third time in 2009. He even hit 8.4 one season! However, we're not talking about everyone who hits 8.0 YPA--we're talking about people who hit 8.0 YPA on over 500 attempts, because that is a particular threshold at which Vick passes for 4000 yards (which you believe to be a conservative projection). That doesn't happen often at all. One reason is talent, accuracy, the quality of receivers, the fluctuating strength of opposing defenses, and everything that makes one quarterback different from the next. Another big reason is that YPA tends to be a better indicator of efficiency than it is of volume. Step back for a second and think about it--if a QB has a high YPA, he needs fewer attempts to move the ball down the field. He's more efficient. If you're passing at an 8 YPA clip, it takes you 5 passes to move 40 yards. If you're passing at a 6.5 YPA clip, you need a little over 6 pass attempts to travel the same distance. For fantasy purposes, it doesn't really matter--all we care about are the yards and TDs. It does matter, however, when you're projecting stats.

It's very hard to have it both ways. If you think Vick is going to pass at 8 YPA or better, it's not likely that he's going to have the opportunity to get anywhere close to the 530 pass attempts you're suggesting as a baseline, and certainly not the 600 you mentioned at one point. He won't need to! The team really has to be crazy all-in on passing to achieve that YPA at that volume of attempts, and I'd argue that Vick's proclivity for rushing (and removing pass attempts for himself, really) would make it nearly impossible. I know he was "on pace" last year, and you can repeat that till you're blue in the fingers, but most people should at least understand the huge challenge that would be for both Vick and the team.

ok lets remeber 8 yds per attempt does not mean he completes every attempt its just yds divided by attempts hell he could throw a 1 yd pas that goes 90 for a td thats 90 yds per attempt!

...no, it would be a single 90 yard TD pass. I'm beginning to understand why this is so hard to understand.Look, the bottom line is that you're suggesting Vick does something no quarterback before him ever has done, and that it's not even a question that he'll do it. Those are the conservative estimates, you've said. In doing so, you're looking only at the Eagles, at less than one year of production in that environment, and ignoring the rest of his career as well (except for the stats from it you like, that is, like his increased rushing average). As long as people understand that's what they're saying when they suggest he'll throw for 4200 yards, rush for 1000, and score a bazillion touchdowns, more power to them. My final word is that you don't tend to win fantasy by expecting record-breaking years with the frequency of a trip to the grocery store.

No if he throws 1 pass and it goes for a 90 yard td does that not qualify for a pass attempt so if thats the only attempt thats 90 yds per attempt I never said my projections were not in question hell when i worked them out for myself i couldnt believe what i was seeing. Ive been playing FF for 15 yrs ive NEVER DRAFTED A qb IN THE 1ST RD! i guess my question is how do you guys do projections if you do true projections based on numbers and not gut feeling of " aww he'll never do that again" how can you not predict big numbers for him in this offense. The only way in mye eyes is to assume injury,but then everyone says "you can get romo later" why is no one assuming injury for him? How many concussions has aaron Rogers had? No one is predicting injuries for him i think some folks manipulate there projections just to make them sound right thats all im suggesting i was hoping i was wrong about Vick because I wont have him. I thought by starting this thread someone would tshow me something I havent thought of but it hasnt happened its just strengthened my believe in my projections!

 

[Andrew Garda]

I project him at about 540 att. Over last 5 yrs the eagles avg 568 att per game, now when you talk about qb rush totals Vick is something fantasy football and the Nfl has never seen a qb with 4.4 speed. Andy Reid has never had a talent like this at qb, its not like vicks runs are scripted ther improvisations. So he is gonna run. People on here are not making projections using history or numbers they are projecting using there gut feelings!

So your argument is essentially - I know there is no logical basis for anything here but it's going to happen because I say it's going to happen?Here's my prediction:There is NO DAMNED WAY Vick throws 500+ times AND runs 99. NOT A CHANCE.The years where Reid had 500+ passes are nearly all years where his QBs ran maybe 40 times. Something has to give. Forget injury. There's no way he gets that many plays to himself. What about McCoy? Does he just block? Where do these plays come from?

 

[Andrew Garda]

I have to say..... I'm starting to think we're all jumping in the boat on an elaborate fishing trip....

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm jumping back out.

 

[AmosMoses]

Fair point. But I wonder why Dodds would be projecting Vick to miss 2 games? BTW, 2 is being generous IMO. The numbers are what they are and I understand some people are drooling over Vick potentially playing 16 games. If your draft strategy is praying for an injury prone running QB to stay at that level AND play a full 16 games though, I think you are setting yourself up for failure.

That's simply not true. Matt Stafford right now is injury prone, let's have some perspective. Vick is a 4 time Pro Bowler and you can't do that by being injury prone. If you want to hate on Vick because you dislike the decisions he has made in life, fine...but don' tsay he is injury prone when that simply is not the case. He starts and finishes plenty of games...ask the New York Giants if they think Michael Vick is injury prone or the Washington Redskins last year.

If course you can be injury prone and get to PBs. In the past 5 seasons, Troy Polamalu has played 16 games once. He has missed over 20 games in that span, which adds up to about 25% of possible games. He made 4 PBs, 2 All Pros and a DPOY, while missing 2 games last year.

 

[atl3695]

Look. You are not going to convince me that Vick is going to rewrite history this season and I'm not going to convince you that he won't. He's a great player. He's not even the best QB, let alone the #1 overall.

NO LOGIC. EMOTION.

I project him at about 540 att. Over last 5 yrs the eagles avg 568 att per game, now when you talk about qb rush totals Vick is something fantasy football and the Nfl has never seen a qb with 4.4 speed. Andy Reid has never had a talent like this at qb, its not like vicks runs are scripted ther improvisations. So he is gonna run. People on here are not making projections using history or numbers they are projecting using there gut feelings!

So your argument is essentially - I know there is no logical basis for anything here but it's going to happen because I say it's going to happen?

Here's my prediction:

There is NO DAMNED WAY Vick throws 500+ times AND runs 99. NOT A CHANCE.

The years where Reid had 500+ passes are nearly all years where his QBs ran maybe 40 times. Something has to give. Forget injury. There's no way he gets that many plays to himself. What about McCoy? Does he just block? Where do these plays come from?

It's actually the exact opposite. The people doubting Vick are the people that are not using logic and going with gut feeling of "no way he can do it again" or "career year". Without question the worse is the insane "regress to mean", like 250 yards per game passing is some kind of historic feat. He said the Eagles have averaged 568 attempts a year over the last 5 years and Vick is no question the best running qb of all time. He only needs to average 6.25 rushes a game (something he has done in every year as a starter) to hit 100. How is that not logic? Hotboyz argument is firmly grounded in logic which he and others have repeated multiple times. Vick played 10 last year which he started and finished. In those games he averaged 279 yards per game passing, 55 yards rushing, 34.1 attempts, and 8.6 rushes a games. Those numbers prorate to 545 attempts and 137 rushes. His attempts could go down 8% and rushes down 27% and still reach 500 passes and 100 rushes.

So logically, anyone can see that 500 and 100 are well within Vick's reach even if he has LESS plays than last year. McCoy or no one else has to lose touches for Vick to hit those numbers. Dont see how anyone can dismiss it to no chance or no damb way category unless emotions are involved. It's funny all those who say Vick cant do it again refuse to do projections. The reason is any objective projections defeat their argument. FBG staffers Dodds, Wood, and Henry have done projections and they all project Vick at over 500 and 100 based on playing 16 games.

The only risk to Vick is injury. His injury risk is overstated and even including the Washington game he missed most of, he still averaged 31.6 attempts and 8.0 rushing in 11 games still on pace for over 500 and 100. On a PPG basis, there is NO DAMB WAY Vick is not the number 1 qb in fantasy football.

Whether being the #1 qb is worth taking #1 overall depends on your league setup, scoring, and your personal opinion of how much Vick outscores that rest of the qbs by.

 

[aburt19]

Out of 14 "experts" in the overall redraft rankings, the highest that Vick is listed is 11th. The lowest ranking doesn't even have him in the

top 50. The rankings are based on 4 points for passing touchdowns, which actually increases Vick's value compared to other QB. Could they all be wrong? Sure they can.

Do I want to gamble the #1 pick that they are wrong? No.

He's the ultimate risk/reward pick.

 

[cobalt_27]

Out of 14 "experts" in the overall redraft rankings, the highest that Vick is listed is 11th. The lowest ranking doesn't even have him in the

top 50. The rankings are based on 4 points for passing touchdowns, which actually increases Vick's value compared to other QB. Could they all be wrong? Sure they can.

Do I want to gamble the #1 pick that they are wrong? No.

He's the ultimate risk/reward pick.

He's the ultimate stupid high risk for, at best, a very low possibility of only marginal return compared to other possible tandems. Taking Vick #1 overall is just a waste of your entry fee. Might as well light it on fire.

 

[CalBear]

He's the ultimate stupid high risk for, at best, a very low possibility of only marginal return compared to other possible tandems. Taking Vick #1 overall is just a waste of your entry fee. Might as well light it on fire.

Look, you don't have to agree that VIck is worth a high pick, but it's ridiculous to assert that there's no possibility that he could be worth a high pick. If he performs exactly as he did in 2010 and plays 16 games, he will be worth the #1 overall pick. You might not like his chances to do that, but it's clearly plausible, and it is entirely reasonable for someone to see it differently than you do, so drop the condescending attitude.

 

[Andrew Garda]

<br>. The reason is any objective projections defeat their argument. FBG staffers Dodds, Wood, and Henry have done projections and they all project Vick at over 500 and 100 based on playing 16 games.<br><br>

First of all - no, Dodds, Wood and Henry DON'T project him for 16 games at ALL. So you're assuming quite a bit there. Everyone is assuming he misses games. They DON'T expect him to hit both marks because they DON'T expect him to play 16 games. Second, our friend hotboyz is predicting 1000 yards rushing at 4000 passing. Again NONE of my fellow staff members predict that.Personally I think their yardage projections aren't too far off, though I would say Henry's passing yards are high. I would say a 3400 yards passing & 600-700 yds rushing makes a lot of sense. 4k & 1k like hotty suggests? I think it's not happening. Could it? Sure, it's theoretically possible. So perhaps I shouldn't have said NO way. However I think it HIGHLY unlikely and given that taking Vick as the 1.1 is putting your season all on the line with one pick in a way that is not the same as picking an elite RB and then grabbing Manning/Rodgers/Brees/Brady in the second or third depending on how you reach. Hey it takes risk to win a FF title. More power too you. But it seems like the logic you're using is assuming a lot of things - that one good season spread over a full year (rarely done by Vick) will translate to a historical FF season. Something that has never even come close to happening in an Andy Reid offense. I see nothing logical about that.edited to add - you and hotboyz are also talking about an average 568 passing attempts a year by the Iggles. That's great - with the exception of 2008 though it's also that amount spread over two Qbs. So it's not like 1 QB gets all the attempts every year.

 

[cobalt_27]

He's the ultimate stupid high risk for, at best, a very low possibility of only marginal return compared to other possible tandems. Taking Vick #1 overall is just a waste of your entry fee. Might as well light it on fire.

Look, you don't have to agree that VIck is worth a high pick, but it's ridiculous to assert that there's no possibility that he could be worth a high pick. If he performs exactly as he did in 2010 and plays 16 games, he will be worth the #1 overall pick. You might not like his chances to do that, but it's clearly plausible, and it is entirely reasonable for someone to see it differently than you do, so drop the condescending attitude.

If I split 5s in Blackjack, it's plausible that it will work out. And, this is the type of reasoning that causes folks to routinely lose money in Vegas. They don't understand how to distinguish between plausibility and probability.

 

[CalBear]

He's the ultimate stupid high risk for, at best, a very low possibility of only marginal return compared to other possible tandems. Taking Vick #1 overall is just a waste of your entry fee. Might as well light it on fire.

Look, you don't have to agree that VIck is worth a high pick, but it's ridiculous to assert that there's no possibility that he could be worth a high pick. If he performs exactly as he did in 2010 and plays 16 games, he will be worth the #1 overall pick. You might not like his chances to do that, but it's clearly plausible, and it is entirely reasonable for someone to see it differently than you do, so drop the condescending attitude.

If I split 5s in Blackjack, it's plausible that it will work out. And, this is the type of reasoning that causes folks to routinely lose money in Vegas. They don't understand how to distinguish between plausibility and probability.

Blackjack has calculable probabilities; fantasy football does not. I would say that, when healthy, Vick has a high probability of performing within 20% of what he did on a per-game basis last year. I would say he has a somewhat higher injury risk than other top QBs, but probably less than some people are assuming. You may guess at those probabilities differently, but in the end you're just guessing differently.

 

[-jb-]

Just to reset, for those that believe Vick's 2010 season was NOT historical:

Chase's Topic

 

[cobalt_27]

He's the ultimate stupid high risk for, at best, a very low possibility of only marginal return compared to other possible tandems. Taking Vick #1 overall is just a waste of your entry fee. Might as well light it on fire.

Look, you don't have to agree that VIck is worth a high pick, but it's ridiculous to assert that there's no possibility that he could be worth a high pick. If he performs exactly as he did in 2010 and plays 16 games, he will be worth the #1 overall pick. You might not like his chances to do that, but it's clearly plausible, and it is entirely reasonable for someone to see it differently than you do, so drop the condescending attitude.

If I split 5s in Blackjack, it's plausible that it will work out. And, this is the type of reasoning that causes folks to routinely lose money in Vegas. They don't understand how to distinguish between plausibility and probability.

Blackjack has calculable probabilities; fantasy football does not. I would say that, when healthy, Vick has a high probability of performing within 20% of what he did on a per-game basis last year. I would say he has a somewhat higher injury risk than other top QBs, but probably less than some people are assuming. You may guess at those probabilities differently, but in the end you're just guessing differently.

I like how you state that FF does not have calculable probabilities and then assert a calculable probability with your very next sentence. You're completely ignoring Vick's past history when you say he has somewhat higher injury risk than other top QBs, right? I mean, talk about sweeping facts under the rug. Go look up how many years Vick has begun the year as a starter. Then calculate what percentage of those seasons he lost games due to injury. Then look up the percentage of how many years the other top QBs lost time due to injury. Come on back and explain how he is not a disproportionately higher risk for injury than the others.This is beyond the fact that he is a 31 year old running QB who invites injury unto himself. You can quantify it...even calculate a probability, if you will.

 

[atl3695]

<br>. The reason is any objective projections defeat their argument. FBG staffers Dodds, Wood, and Henry have done projections and they all project Vick at over 500 and 100 based on playing 16 games.<br><br>

First of all - no, Dodds, Wood and Henry DON'T project him for 16 games at ALL. So you're assuming quite a bit there. Everyone is assuming he misses games. They DON'T expect him to hit both marks because they DON'T expect him to play 16 games. Second, our friend hotboyz is predicting 1000 yards rushing at 4000 passing. Again NONE of my fellow staff members predict that.Personally I think their yardage projections aren't too far off, though I would say Henry's passing yards are high. I would say a 3400 yards passing & 600-700 yds rushing makes a lot of sense. 4k & 1k like hotty suggests? I think it's not happening.

Could it? Sure, it's theoretically possible. So perhaps I shouldn't have said NO way. However I think it HIGHLY unlikely and given that taking Vick as the 1.1 is putting your season all on the line with one pick in a way that is not the same as picking an elite RB and then grabbing Manning/Rodgers/Brees/Brady in the second or third depending on how you reach.

Hey it takes risk to win a FF title. More power too you. But it seems like the logic you're using is assuming a lot of things - that one good season spread over a full year (rarely done by Vick) will translate to a historical FF season. Something that has never even come close to happening in an Andy Reid offense.

I see nothing logical about that.

edited to add - you and hotboyz are also talking about an average 568 passing attempts a year by the Iggles. That's great - with the exception of 2008 though it's also that amount spread over two Qbs. So it's not like 1 QB gets all the attempts every year.

I said he hit 500 and 100 based on playing 16 games and the PPG numbers given by the FBG staff. I dont think it is a given he misses time. Vick has been amazingly healthy throughout his career for someone with his style. He plays banged up and only losses time due to major injury like broken bones. Those types of injuries can happen to any qb (Romo, Brady, Stafford, etc.)I didnt see where he said 1000 yards rushing, I thought we were talking about rushing attempts. 100 attempts should give him 650-800 yards. He was on pace for 545 passing attempts and 137 rushing attempts last year so he could drop some and still get plenty. Andy Reids offense has not up any historical FF seasons because Andy Reid has never had a Vick adding 600-800 yards rushing and 5 or so rushing TD's. Philly offense HAS consistently passed for 3800-4300 yards so that would not be an outlier. Only reason Philly would use two qb's is because of injury.

The stats that many on here are saying are highly unlikely are backed up on a PPG basis by almost all projections. The only reason Vick comes up short is that time missed is assumed. It's not like people are using 2 or 3 games last year as a basis for projections, he played over 2/3 of the season last year so I while his numbers may go down slightly, I dont see how they change significantly.

Vick averaged 279 yards passing a game in games he started and finished last year. How many games do you have him missing to drop to only 3400 in a Philly offense that normally throws for around 4000 year in and year out and is full of big play players that should rack up yardage? What odds would you give of Vick playing all 16 games?