Except the part where the residents were talking about the flight going north to south - towards Diego Garcia - where it was being controlled remotely by a US drone operator...
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Missing Malaysian jet news (2 Viewers)
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El Floppo
Footballguy
Next next question... if the pilots had time to adjust the computer, wouldn't they also contact or send out an sos?
Doug B
Footballguy
All sensible. The plane obviously missed Langawi International.
The pic you "threw together" is sobering -- that area would be a damn hard place to plumb for a missing plane.
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
The mantra I have seen repeated by pilots on this issue is Aviate. Navigate. Communicate. Maybe they had time to aviate, and then to navigate, but not to communicate - particularly if communications were breaking down.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
See. I knew it. Has anyone asked the United States yet?you have to ask the right question
Doug B
Footballguy
Could be a human error here. In my theory (FWIW), the fligth crew -- initially -- may have thought they had a relatively minor electrical fire (thinking "meh, a short to rewire" more than "Holy Kerrap! Plane's on fire!") to deal with. The pilot diverted to Langkawi International as a precutionary measure, but was hoping the issue could be fixed before too long, and the fligth could be rerouted back to Beijing if all ended up OK.
Kinda just spit-balling, but
EDIT: riffing off of Sinn Fein's post # 2274, it's possible also that someone on the fligth crew -- the young copilot? -- might have started pulling breakers "too quickly", knocking out communications before the pilot could report the issue. Again, human error:
Pilot: I wanted to get someone on the radio, and now I can't. Wait for my mark next time before you start pulling breakers.
Co-pilot: I'm sorry, got ahead of myself ...
Pilot: Forget it -- just find that short!
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TheAristocrat
Footballguy
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Fat Nick
Footballguy
I don't think a pilot would ever view any kind of electrical (or any other kind of) fire as minor in flight. A fire, no matter how small, is a major deal that would warrant an immediate landing.Could be a human error here. In my theory (FWIW), the fligth crew -- initially -- may have thought they had a relatively minor electrical fire (thinking "meh, a short to rewire" more than "Holy Kerrap! Plane's on fire!") to deal with. The pilot diverted to Langkawi International as a precutionary measure, but was hoping the issue could be fixed before too long, and the fligth could be rerouted back to Beijing if all ended up OK.
Kinda just spit-balling, but
EDIT: riffing off of Sinn Fein's post # 2274, it's possible also that someone on the fligth crew -- the young copilot? -- might have started pulling breakers "too quickly", knocking out communications before the pilot could report the issue. Again, human error:
Pilot: I wanted to get someone on the radio, and now I can't. Wait for my mark next time before you start pulling breakers.
Co-pilot: I'm sorry, got ahead of myself ...
Pilot: Forget it -- just find that short!
Fat Nick
Footballguy
Or Al Quaeda?See. I knew it. Has anyone asked the United States yet?
Doug B
Footballguy
Thanks for the informed post. Do you think El Floppo's question in post #2770 necessarily needs to be accounted for?
... or could it be attributable to a simple eff-up (e.g. someone pulling breakers too early, or some other protocol not being followed)?
ClownCausedChaos2
Footballguy
New theory:
Confiscated by God to be the vessel that brings Fred Phelps home.
Laugh all you want, but if that plane shows up the same day that Phelps dies, I'll bet money with anyone (except Gobbler) that half of you #### your pants.
Confiscated by God to be the vessel that brings Fred Phelps home.
Laugh all you want, but if that plane shows up the same day that Phelps dies, I'll bet money with anyone (except Gobbler) that half of you #### your pants.
Doug B
Footballguy
Another spitball: maybe the initial "something's wrong" indicator wasn't a "fire sensor". Maybe it was something less specific -- maybe something non-flight-esential was malfunctioning and someone started pulling breakers to analyze the problem.
That would require something making the pilot's "spidey sense" tingle, prompting him to re-program the flight to Langkawi Int'l. Maybe the scent of tire smoke preceeded the actual uber-thick choking smoke filling the cockpit?
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
if there were a fire, particularly a landing gear/tire fire, wouldn't the Maldivians have seen smoke as well when they spotted the plane?
El Floppo
Footballguy
WTF. You have to be kidding me.
El Floppo
Footballguy
oh... right... those pings putting the plane on either of the two arcs.
how do those arcs jibe with the fire theory we've been tossing around?
Keerock
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Gear would've been retracted -- one idea (the Goodfellow analysis referenced upthread and linked in post #2712) is that the tire smoke filled the cockpit and cabin, but wasn't trailing from the plane.
I'm cool on this Maldives connection, though. Anything could've happened, I suppose .. but the Maldives seems way far west from where the plane should be.
Not exactly true - it was a conical radius from the satellite that gave us the arcs - the officials eliminated portions of the radius as out of the range where the plane could reasonably have expected to be at the time of the pings.
17seconds
root of all aliai
Also if it flew over Maldives then it ran out of fuel before reaching land, and went into the ocean. I could see that happening if it was a Payne Stewart situation, but if you believe the current theories that the change of course was deliberate, it makes the scenario more complicated. Somebody had a plan but it failed miserably or there was another course change from the plan due to a struggle or mechanical failure.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Dr. Detroit posted earlier (I thnik two pages back) that the satellite ping data shouldn't be considered as a sure-fire location finder.
But yes, the Maldives are far from both of the widely-piblished arcs.
Sand
Footballguy
Pfft. The aviation experts from Myanmar are the best out there. Who needs the US?
Wingnut
Footballguy
Only if they flew low and close enough to a cell phone tower
Doug B
Footballguy
See my post #2761 above -- that's my attempt to jibe the Goodfellow "tire fire" theory with the location of the southern arc. Would've required one more (likely manual) turn south after the last known radar spotting.
The Goat
Footballguy
Officer Pete Malloy
Footballguy
Maybe we can get that Mexican midget from the Love Boat to point out where "de plane" is. LOL
mr roboto
Footballguy
Yes, I know. But a satellite provides a distance from itself to the object. That forms a circle on the globe. The 2 arcs were formed by calculating the last know point (Malaysian military radar ping on the west side of Malaysia) and the longest range the plane could travel with the fuel it had. The Maldives is toward the center of the 'circle' that the satelite can provide. In order for the arcs to be accurate AND the Maldives report to be accurate, the plane would have had to veer north or south from the Maldives to get back to the arc, no?
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The Goat
Footballguy
I'll be recycling Keerock's 2 to 4 day-old material all week. Try the veal.
mr roboto
Footballguy
This, said much better than I did.
Parrothead
Footballguy
Keerock
Footballguy
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I demand the internet produce a Rust Cohle interview explaining all of this.
KCitons
Footballguy
How low would they need to be. Someone on this post said they were able to get a signal, but I don't remember the exact altitude. If they were turning around to land, they would have flown over the Malaysian Peninsula, not sure if there is a cell tower in that area.
fatness
Footballguy
fakepunt
Footballguy
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_South_Dakota_Learjet_crash
1980 Bo Rein crash
Robert Edward "Bo" Rein, a noted football coach for North Carolina State and then Louisiana State University (LSU) (where he had been hired only six weeks before) was flying with a pilot from Shreveport, Louisiana to Baton Rouge, Louisiana on January 10, 1980 in a Cessna 441 Conquest twin-turboprop, registered N441NC. The flight was supposed to last 40 minutes, but after flying east and climbing to avoid a thunderstorm, the plane lost contact with air traffic control and was seen on radar to climb to 40,000 feet (12,000 m).
The Conquest was eventually intercepted by two Michigan Air National Guard F-4C Phantoms from Seymour-Johnson AFBin Goldsboro, North Carolina, and a pair of F-106 Delta Dart interceptors from the 48th Fighter Interceptor Squadron atLangley AFB aircraft in Virginia.[8] When intercepted, the Cessna was over 1,000 miles (1,600 km) off course and flying at an altitude of 41,600 feet (12,700 m), 5,000 feet (1,500 m) higher than its maximum certified ceiling. The fighter pilots could not see anyone in the cockpit. The plane continued out over the Atlantic Ocean where it ran out of fuel, descended to 25,000 feet (7,600 m) and then entered a spin, crashing into the water.[9][10] The military pilots spotted some debris, but no wreckage was ever recovered. The bodies of Rein and pilot Lou Benscotter were never found. The most likely reason given was that the two men apparently lost consciousness due to slow depressurization of the cabin.[11]
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Some interesting concepts here & potential similarities:
AutoPilot/Captain/FO/Someone climbed above the maximum certified ceiling. (confirmed?)
Crash left some debris, but no wreckage was ever found. (possible)
So, they were following this 1980 flight and never found any wreckage. If the same is true with this flight, the chances of ever finding anything are slim and none, and slim left town...
We may never have any answers, but (IMO) the most logical at this point is that any remains are at the bottom of the Indian Ocean...
Honestly, I'm not even sure that any other possibilities make any sense at this point... If it was a hijacking, it still is probably in the ocean... If it was a suicide, it probably is in the ocean... If it was mechanical, it probably is in the ocean... If zombies took over the plane, it probably is in the ocean...
1980 Bo Rein crash
Robert Edward "Bo" Rein, a noted football coach for North Carolina State and then Louisiana State University (LSU) (where he had been hired only six weeks before) was flying with a pilot from Shreveport, Louisiana to Baton Rouge, Louisiana on January 10, 1980 in a Cessna 441 Conquest twin-turboprop, registered N441NC. The flight was supposed to last 40 minutes, but after flying east and climbing to avoid a thunderstorm, the plane lost contact with air traffic control and was seen on radar to climb to 40,000 feet (12,000 m).
The Conquest was eventually intercepted by two Michigan Air National Guard F-4C Phantoms from Seymour-Johnson AFBin Goldsboro, North Carolina, and a pair of F-106 Delta Dart interceptors from the 48th Fighter Interceptor Squadron atLangley AFB aircraft in Virginia.[8] When intercepted, the Cessna was over 1,000 miles (1,600 km) off course and flying at an altitude of 41,600 feet (12,700 m), 5,000 feet (1,500 m) higher than its maximum certified ceiling. The fighter pilots could not see anyone in the cockpit. The plane continued out over the Atlantic Ocean where it ran out of fuel, descended to 25,000 feet (7,600 m) and then entered a spin, crashing into the water.[9][10] The military pilots spotted some debris, but no wreckage was ever recovered. The bodies of Rein and pilot Lou Benscotter were never found. The most likely reason given was that the two men apparently lost consciousness due to slow depressurization of the cabin.[11]
-------------
Some interesting concepts here & potential similarities:
AutoPilot/Captain/FO/Someone climbed above the maximum certified ceiling. (confirmed?)
Crash left some debris, but no wreckage was ever found. (possible)
So, they were following this 1980 flight and never found any wreckage. If the same is true with this flight, the chances of ever finding anything are slim and none, and slim left town...
We may never have any answers, but (IMO) the most logical at this point is that any remains are at the bottom of the Indian Ocean...
Honestly, I'm not even sure that any other possibilities make any sense at this point... If it was a hijacking, it still is probably in the ocean... If it was a suicide, it probably is in the ocean... If it was mechanical, it probably is in the ocean... If zombies took over the plane, it probably is in the ocean...
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Doug B
Footballguy
The Telegraph (UK) has a good one-stop page for following the latest developments. A lot of what's been discussed here over the last few pages is also linked through The Telegraph's "Malaysian Airlines MH370: live" site.
I was interested to see that the Australian "coast guard" (the Australian Maritime Safety Authority, or AMSA) is going to search the lower end of the southern arc starting today.
I was interested to see that the Australian "coast guard" (the Australian Maritime Safety Authority, or AMSA) is going to search the lower end of the southern arc starting today.
Just spitballing here, but if the plane was distressed, then I don't think reaching for a cell phone would have been high on the list of priorities.
It it went down as suggested, the pilots were focused on keeping the plane airborne, and then navigating to the nearest airport, and dealing with whatever emergency cropped up - getting on a cell phone never would have happened.
Parrothead
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
How did you know he was going to go to starboard?
Parrothead
Footballguy
Fat Nick
Footballguy
I commented earlier - I've been able to make short calls in a prop plane going ~100 mph at about 5,000ft. I mentioned that the issue with calls is the speed you're traveling, not so much the altitude (at least to a point). I think anything below 10,000 ft would have no issues pinging a tower...maybe sending a text. Calls would drop too fast at airliner speed.
Parrothead
Footballguy
if the perps of this piracy were smart, they would scatter some debris (seat cushions, misc unidentifiable parts, etc) from another plane to call off the search..
