This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Seems strange to me. I would think that if anything he would be adding weight to take on an increased workload and more pounding.
A little. My concern is not with him being < 210, but by how fast he lost the weight. Slow, steady weight loss is fine, but when you drop quickly it zaps your strength. He was not slender to begin with, so he may just be working harder knowing he'll be THE feature back and has lost some body fat. I wouldn't be surprised or concerned if he went from 14% to 8% body fat.
Drafting 2nd?
5th actually lol but there is no way i am risking my FF team on a dude that is 5'8 209lbs, that has never had 1000 yards and never carried the ball substantially. I know there are a ton of guys high on him and he is going #1 in a lot of drafts but the risk/reward is just wayyy too high for my tastes for an unknown fulltime starter. I think someone like Chris Johnson or Forte are much much safer picks and should be on a better team than the Jags. Hopefully i will get one of those guys at 5.
I admit I like Chris Johnson a little bit more as well, but he's actually smaller than MJD. He might be a couple inches taller but weighs less. I don't like Forte over MJD.
Totally different running styles
You know what they say about opinions..
I know what you are saying and I know I am in the minority on MJD but if you are looking for a safe low risk option in the top 10 then MJD is not the guy for you. For me I like to go for consistency and past results for guys I draft in the first 2 rounds.
How ironic...MJD's past results show that he is a model of consistency for 3 years running now, and just signed a huge contract this offseason as the undisputed #1 RB in Jacksonville. Despite Fred Taylor's presence he was consistently a RB1 in PPR leagues, and in non-PPR he was consistently no worse than a high end RB2 or low end RB1, while averaging over 200 touches, over 1,300 combined yds., and 12 TDs per season. He is also one of the best goal line & short yardage backs in the NFL. What more do you want?
To be different
I would never play in a league that did not give RBs fantasy points for receiving yards.
I would like to see his YPC going up for the last 3 years instead of down and I would like to see him with a 1,OOO yard rushing season already in his career.Don't get be wrong, I love me some MJD but he isn't a slam dunk by any means.
i'm not so sure about this. CJ has Lendale in a contract year. Lendale dropped 20 lbs. i see CJ having a good yr., he's very talented. not many TD's.
His BMI is obscene. It's not like weight prevents injury- lots of backs get injured after adding weight because their bodies aren't accustomed to it and because it makes collisions more violent. What prevents injury is BMI- i.e. being very solidly built. And a 5'8" 210lb back has a comparable BMI to a 6'0" 235lb back, except with less pressure on his knees and less violent collisions. This whole "small backs are more likely to be injured" thing is kind of ludicrous, to be honest. Payton was 5'10" and 200. Barry Sanders was 5'8" 203. Emmitt Smith was 5'9" 210. Yeah, that's right- the three leading rushers in NFL history were all 5'10" or shorter and 210 or lighter. And let's not forget Tiki Barber (5'10" and 210) or Warrick Dunn (5'9" 180), or Marshall Faulk (5'10" 211). Do I need to go on, or are people starting to see how ludicrous it is to knock a back for being 210 pounds? Have you people even SEEN MJD before? The guy's a freaking bowling ball.
He's built pretty much exactly like Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Walter Peyton, Tiki Barber, or Marshall Faulk, he's never had injury problems, and he's finished 8th/13th/9th in his three seasons despite being a "backup". Oh, and he's the most talented RB in the entire NFL.
Just gonna have to agree to disagree then. His YPC for his first 3 seasons is 4.8! That's while taking on virtually all his team's short yardage duties, and even includes last season when Jacksonville lost virtually the entire offensive line. Yet MJD still averaged 4.2 YPC last season!
Fred Taylor is one of the best pure runners in NFL history. Somehow, saying "MJD only averaged .3 ypc more than one of the best pure runners in NFL history" doesn't exactly strike me as a knock on MJD, especially since MJD generally played in situations that lend themselves to fewer ypc (short yardage and red zone).
Yep, looking at the big picture here, good post.
And then it's too late to get him in keeper/dynasty leagues.
I would say that Freddy had his day when he was very good.....maybe one of the better pure runners in history but I wouldn't say that his talent level @ 32 years old is still along the top in history.
A 30 yr old Fred Taylor averaged 5.0YPC, a 31 yr old Fred Taylor averaged 5.4 YPC, yet a 32 yr old Taylor only averaged 3.9... Why do you think that is? Just because of age alone? IMO a 33 yr old Fred Taylor will probably average over 4.0YPC in 2009 while playing for the NE Patriots. The point being, that Freddie is a terrific NFL RB, even after age 30, and it is to his credit that he was good for 3.9 last season, behind the aforementioned 'blocks of silly putty'. He'ld still be in JAX this season, but the torch has been passed and Taylor is chasing a Super Bowl ring and Jim Brown's rushing totals before retirement...
Freddie T averaged 5.4 at 31 and 3.9 at 32. Do you think that drop was entirely due to age catching up to him, or do you think losing 3 OLs before the season ever started played a role?To put it into perspective... only six times in NFL history has a 30-year old RB attempted 200 rushes and averaged 5 ypc. Fred Taylor did it twice (Tiki Barber also did it twice, and Warrick Dunn and James Brooks each did it once). He was aging better than any RB in NFL history other than Tiki Barber, and then suddenly he averaged 3.9 ypc. Did Fred Taylor just go to sleep one night as Tiki Barber and wake up the next morning as Reuben Droughns, or did the line account for some of the fall?And if the line accounted for some of the fall, how much do you think was a result of the line and how much was a result of Fred Taylor? If the line was responsible for a drop of .3 ypc, then behind a better line MJD could have put up 4.5 ypc. If the line was responsible for a drop of .5 ypc, then MJD could have put up 4.7.
Thanks, good to be back.
1st off welcome back as well SSOG2nd I will say again that I like MJD3rd All I've been saying is MJD isn't a top 5 lockJust cause Jax selected 2 rookies early and brought in an okay lineman from Philly doesn't mean they'll be a top unit this year on the oline.Freddie T averaged 5.4 at 31 and 3.9 at 32. Do you think that drop was entirely due to age catching up to him, or do you think losing 3 OLs before the season ever started played a role?To put it into perspective... only six times in NFL history has a 30-year old RB attempted 200 rushes and averaged 5 ypc. Fred Taylor did it twice (Tiki Barber also did it twice, and Warrick Dunn and James Brooks each did it once). He was aging better than any RB in NFL history other than Tiki Barber, and then suddenly he averaged 3.9 ypc. Did Fred Taylor just go to sleep one night as Tiki Barber and wake up the next morning as Reuben Droughns, or did the line account for some of the fall?And if the line accounted for some of the fall, how much do you think was a result of the line and how much was a result of Fred Taylor? If the line was responsible for a drop of .3 ypc, then behind a better line MJD could have put up 4.5 ypc. If the line was responsible for a drop of .5 ypc, then MJD could have put up 4.7.Thanks, good to be back.
Don't forget the 3 starters they're getting back from injury.
This. And don't forget that MJD has been a fantasy RB1 as an NFL backup, and is now an NFL starter. You're looking at 250 carries, minimum. 250 carries probably means 1200 yards rushing. He's never had fewer than 400 yards receiving. Figure he's good for at least a dozen TDs and you've got a pretty impressive floor (1600/12).
You have Peterson as your #1 in your rankings?????
MJD is a solid choice for #1 pick in a PPR league. As SSOG already pointed 1600/12 is a pretty good floor, plus MJD should have 50+ receptions, giving him an edge over Peterson. Non-PPR I would still go with Peterson though...Not sure if you were attempting sarcasm here, if so
i think its a mistake to think MJD cant handle a bigger work load. low center of gravity, built like a bowling ball, very talented. sign me up.
He's very short, so that weight isn't really "light" for his size. Now if there was a 6'4" RB that only weight 208, I'd worry. MJD is still pretty thick at 208.
First, what changed since our FA night back in April? You offered me just about your entire team for MJD. Was it two starting RB's (one being Portis, can't remember the other) and a 1st rounder for MJD?Second, so now YPC matters but in the Reggie Bush thread it doesn't and I should look at the Youtube highlight reels to see how good he is, right?
Throughout this whole thread I have said I really like MJD. I was just mentioning he isn't a lock at a top 5 guy. I really want tobelieve he will be but he has more questions behind him than others but his ceiling is ridiculous. I know the injuries to the line were significant last year and I know they drafted two rookies early this year but that doesn't guarantee me the line is going to be a top unit. You have to be a little worried at the continuing downward spiral which is MJD's YPC. I'm also alittle considered about his increase workload.TheFanatic said:First, what changed since our FA night back in April? You offered me just about your entire team for MJD. Was it two starting RB's (one being Portis, can't remember the other) and a 1st rounder for MJD?Second, so now YPC matters but in the Reggie Bush thread it doesn't and I should look at the Youtube highlight reels to see how good he is, right?
Third, forget it fellas. Tim is not a big picture kind of guy. He'll focus in on one little stat and disregard everything else...
Not huge news but 12 lbs in 3 weeks for a guy whose gettng ready to "shoulder" the load and is a little small already is newsworthy I believe.TheFanatic said:
I bet he was just being funny when he and a couple of his USC teammates beat that dude up at Denny's.
Peterson #1 in non-PPR. MJD #1 in PPR. (even .5 PPR)
I'd say if people are touting him as a #1 overall, anything is big news. Especially when you consider he is the shortest NFL back.
He had nothing to do with that. And he went to UCLA.
Sorry I don't want to sound like everyone else and guarantee this guy for the top 5 preformance.I'm bringing up his bad points and want to here the good points.I treat this board as a learning experience instead of a "listen to how loud I can type" experience.I've treated every response with respect and another side to a theory, what's wrong with that.Maybe you should try it?Just trying to get a good feel to help me feel more/less comfortable.Is this the thread where Blackjacks gets some facts to go against his gut feeling yet he sticks with his gut feeling because it's easier than admitting you're wrong?Also, please give me a list of all the rb's that are a 'lock' for top 5 production. I'll go firsteterson............
