MJD (1 Viewer)

[Knobs]

Is this the thread where Blackjacks gets some facts to go against his gut feeling yet he sticks with his gut feeling because it's easier than admitting you're wrong?Also, please give me a list of all the rb's that are a 'lock' for top 5 production. I'll go firsteterson............

Sorry I don't want to sound like everyone else and guarantee this guy for the top 5 preformance.I'm bringing up his bad points and want to here the good points.I treat this board as a learning experience instead of a "listen to how loud I can type" experience.I've treated every response with respect and another side to a theory, what's wrong with that.Maybe you should try it?Just trying to get a good feel to help me feel more/less comfortable.

Okay, my post was a harsh and I apologize. The point I was trying to make is that really NOT ONE rb is a 'lock' for top 5 production. The two things that are going to vault someone into that level are staying healthy and getting lots of touches (carries, catches, etc). And I really don't understand how MJD doesn't have as good a shot as anyone outside ADP. Health may be a concern, but who else do you see stealing any significant number of carries on that team? Jax isn't likely to turn into the Saints and pass every down.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I think the arguments against MJD, at least at #2, aren't outlandish at all. People who felt "set" taking him in that slot might be getting cranky with anyone who would rock that boat so close to draft time. Seems like there hasn't been any doubt expressed about him all summer so I'm enjoying this thread.

 

[pantherclub]

I think the arguments against MJD, at least at #2, aren't outlandish at all. People who felt "set" taking him in that slot might be getting cranky with anyone who would rock that boat so close to draft time. Seems like there hasn't been any doubt expressed about him all summer so I'm enjoying this thread.

My only initial points about MJD is that there is a ton of unknowns/risk. His size for starters, his decreasing ypg, his team is not going to be very good, he has never shouldered a full load or gone over 1000yds rushing. I know he has had good/great success in the past but I really think in his rookie year the Jags used him perfectly, as a change of pace guy that defenses had no idea what to do with. Now with him getting the ball potentially 20-25 times a game defenses will/should be better prepared for his style. Bottom line is that out of the projected top 10 backs it would be least surprising to me if MJD fall way out of the top 10 at the end of the year.

 

[RudeDog]

I think if you draft this dude in the top 10 then your season is automatically in the tank.

You know what they say about opinions..

I know what you are saying and I know I am in the minority on MJD but if you are looking for a safe low risk option in the top 10 then MJD is not the guy for you. For me I like to go for consistency and past results for guys I draft in the first 2 rounds.

switz.... is that you ?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I think the arguments against MJD, at least at #2, aren't outlandish at all. People who felt "set" taking him in that slot might be getting cranky with anyone who would rock that boat so close to draft time. Seems like there hasn't been any doubt expressed about him all summer so I'm enjoying this thread.

My only initial points about MJD is that there is a ton of unknowns/risk. His size for starters, his decreasing ypg, his team is not going to be very good, he has never shouldered a full load or gone over 1000yds rushing. I know he has had good/great success in the past but I really think in his rookie year the Jags used him perfectly, as a change of pace guy that defenses had no idea what to do with. Now with him getting the ball potentially 20-25 times a game defenses will/should be better prepared for his style. Bottom line is that out of the projected top 10 backs it would be least surprising to me if MJD fall way out of the top 10 at the end of the year.

Yeah, I don't agree with every argument (like, the team might actually be good, tough for me to read) but despite his considerable receiving totals it just seems screwy that the CONSENSUS RB at #2 rushes for 50-60 yards per game.

 

[thehornet]

A 32 year old Fred Taylor avg. 3.9 so it must not be that impossible.I like MJD, all I'm saying is he has more to fill ot on his resume before declaring him a definate top 5 pick

Fred Taylor is one of the best pure runners in NFL history. Somehow, saying "MJD only averaged .3 ypc more than one of the best pure runners in NFL history" doesn't exactly strike me as a knock on MJD, especially since MJD generally played in situations that lend themselves to fewer ypc (short yardage and red zone).

riiiiiight. Please stop this. I really like MJD, but blankly stating the 2008 Fred Taylor to prime-years Fred Taylor as being 'one of the best pure runner in NFL history" is silly. You can pull out all of the stats you want, 2008 Fred Taylor was nothing close to the 2002-04 FredTaylor, or even the 2006 Fred Taylor version.

 

[SSOG]

Also, please give me a list of all the rb's that are a 'lock' for top 5 production. I'll go firsteterson

Peterson is injury prone, has absolutely no receiving skills, and will likely see a decrease in workload.

riiiiiight. Please stop this. I really like MJD, but blankly stating the 2008 Fred Taylor to prime-years Fred Taylor as being 'one of the best pure runner in NFL history" is silly. You can pull out all of the stats you want, 2008 Fred Taylor was nothing close to the 2002-04 FredTaylor, or even the 2006 Fred Taylor version.

I never said that Taylor in 2008 was as good as Taylor in 2004, I just said that Taylor was one of the best pure runners in NFL history. Even if he wasn't at his prime, he was still an incredibly effective runner. It's not like MJD beat out Chris Perry by .3 yards per carry here. Jacksonville's offensive line was so bad that even a proven runner like Fred Taylor struggled mightily behind it.

 

[thehornet]

Also, please give me a list of all the rb's that are a 'lock' for top 5 production. I'll go firsteterson

Peterson is injury prone, has absolutely no receiving skills, and will likely see a decrease in workload.

riiiiiight. Please stop this. I really like MJD, but blankly stating the 2008 Fred Taylor to prime-years Fred Taylor as being 'one of the best pure runner in NFL history" is silly. You can pull out all of the stats you want, 2008 Fred Taylor was nothing close to the 2002-04 FredTaylor, or even the 2006 Fred Taylor version.

I never said that Taylor in 2008 was as good as Taylor in 2004, I just said that Taylor was one of the best pure runners in NFL history. Even if he wasn't at his prime, he was still an incredibly effective runner. It's not like MJD beat out Chris Perry by .3 yards per carry here. Jacksonville's offensive line was so bad that even a proven runner like Fred Taylor struggled mightily behind it.

he wasnt effective at all last year.Not even sure what we are debating, right now Either way, I like MJD this year and am not concerned with this weight loss thing. I thought he was right around 210 anyways, so no biggie. He runs like a bowling ball as you all know. Im not worried.

 

[treat88]

Peterson is injury prone

I haven't heard this drum beat in a while.I wonder if this rep isn't going to follow Peterson throughout his career just as the Fragile Freddy crowd never quite let go of that mantra.Obviously, I think this sentiment is unfounded.As for MJD, even at 208 the guy is built like a tank. There may be reasons to question his status as a top 5 RB for the upcoming season, but his weight isn't one of them.

 

[SSOG]

Peterson is injury prone

I haven't heard this drum beat in a while.I wonder if this rep isn't going to follow Peterson throughout his career just as the Fragile Freddy crowd never quite let go of that mantra.Obviously, I think this sentiment is unfounded.As for MJD, even at 208 the guy is built like a tank. There may be reasons to question his status as a top 5 RB for the upcoming season, but his weight isn't one of them.

I was mostly just pointing out that everyone, even Almighty Lord Peterson, has negatives. Although I will say that it'll take more than a single healthy year for Peterson to shed an "injury-prone" label.

 

[Fantaholic]

1st off welcome back as well SSOG

2nd I will say again that I like MJD

3rd All I've been saying is MJD isn't a top 5 lock

Just cause Jax selected 2 rookies early and brought in an okay lineman from Philly doesn't mean they'll be a top unit this year on the oline.

Don't forget the 3 starters they're getting back from injury.

This. And don't forget that MJD has been a fantasy RB1 as an NFL backup, and is now an NFL starter. You're looking at 250 carries, minimum. 250 carries probably means 1200 yards rushing. He's never had fewer than 400 yards receiving. Figure he's good for at least a dozen TDs and you've got a pretty impressive floor (1600/12).

I remember hearing similar statments going into last season regarding Marion Barber. That didn't hold water. I'm not saying that it will be the case with MJD, but it does sound familiar.

 

[two_dollars]

1st off welcome back as well SSOG

2nd I will say again that I like MJD

3rd All I've been saying is MJD isn't a top 5 lock

Just cause Jax selected 2 rookies early and brought in an okay lineman from Philly doesn't mean they'll be a top unit this year on the oline.

Don't forget the 3 starters they're getting back from injury.

This. And don't forget that MJD has been a fantasy RB1 as an NFL backup, and is now an NFL starter. You're looking at 250 carries, minimum. 250 carries probably means 1200 yards rushing. He's never had fewer than 400 yards receiving. Figure he's good for at least a dozen TDs and you've got a pretty impressive floor (1600/12).

I remember hearing similar statments going into last season regarding Marion Barber. That didn't hold water. I'm not saying that it will be the case with MJD, but it does sound familiar.

Barber was a top 3 RB for a while, til he got hurt and split with Felix.. there is no Felix in Jax..

 

[SSOG]

I remember hearing similar statments going into last season regarding Marion Barber. That didn't hold water. I'm not saying that it will be the case with MJD, but it does sound familiar.

Different situation. The Barbarian went from an RBBC with a 1st round RB named Jones (Julius)... to an RBBC with a 1st round RB named Jones (Felix). Jacksonville hasn't really been making any high-profile acquisitions for its RB corps.Besides, MJD is more talented than Barber. I think he's the best RB in the league (with apologies to Peterson, who is a better rusher, but a worse blocker, and who couldn't catch a cold).

 

[TheFanatic]

Is this the thread where Blackjacks gets some facts to go against his gut feeling yet he sticks with his gut feeling because it's easier than admitting you're wrong?