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MLB 2018 (1 Viewer)

Raging weasel said:
Alot of the top pitchers are either facing off or face a tough matchup. I'm going to yesterday's well and using Gray and Montas so I can stack Yanks( who are for some reason cheaper today) and fit in some Rockies. This gives me Sanchez Byrd Valaika Didi Arenado Blackmon Judge Gardner
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He has been struggling vs. RHBs this year, just so you know.  .386 wOBA, .211 ISO, and 40% hard contact to RHBs this year.  I looked again, b/c I remember having Balt stacks lined up yesterday.   Not sure if there are others in that price range, just an observation - my placeholder for FD this morning was Sale + Balt stack.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
He has been struggling vs. RHBs this year, just so you know.  .386 wOBA, .211 ISO, and 40% hard contact to RHBs this year.  I looked again, b/c I remember having Balt stacks lined up yesterday.   Not sure if there are others in that price range, just an observation - my placeholder for FD this morning was Sale + Balt stack.  
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Those are some ugly numbers. I just know Balt can strikeout alot so had some upside for his price. They can also mash so that's the risk.

 
Raging weasel said:
Those are some ugly numbers. I just know Balt can strikeout alot so had some upside for his price. They can also mash so that's the risk.
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Yeah, I took a peek at DK pricing, and didn't see anybody else down there really and it seems like he's on an every other start +20pt game pattern, which means tonight is the night to start him.  ;)

 
KarmaPolice said:
Yeah, I took a peek at DK pricing, and didn't see anybody else down there really and it seems like he's on an every other start +20pt game pattern, which means tonight is the night to start him.  ;)
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Only other guy I have any interest in down there is Chase Anderson which may not be terrible.

 
I haven't dug too deep, but I THINK my contrarian plan tonight is to play a higher priced SP and try to find some cheap offenses that I like.  Not sure (since I thought SD stack would be contrarian), but I figured with NY and Coors the lean might be to pay down more for SP to fit those spots in and combining that with the 2 best SPs going against a couple of the best Os should keep ownership down.  :shrug:   I think over 1/2 my LUs will be with Sale/Cole/Carrasco/Strasb.  I just haven't decided which one(s).   On the cheaper side for FD, the SPs I wrote down to look at more were Taillon (good vs. LHBs, StL is very leftie heavy), Pivetta, J.Barria, T.Anderson.    I noticed that both LaD and Color were on my list for bottom 10 offenses as far as team wOBA on the year vs. the handedness of the SP today.  

 
Gonna be away pretty much the rest of the day, but, may get a chance to peak in later. So-so night last night with a few small GPP cashes. Looking at tonight, I liked [as many did] the NYY against Cashner last night. With the postponement and Cashner slated to go tonight, I see no reason to like them any less. Implied run total of 5.4. Liking the A's a lot too; relatively cheap & an implied run total of 5.03 against Ian Kennedy. I'll mention one more I'm really high on for tonight: Nick Williams against SFG. He's cheap, Gratton seems to have worse numbers against LHB, and Williams is starting to heat up. With Hoskins on the DL, he should be starting. Just going to run out two cheap GPP LU's tonight, and he's in both of them.

 
reel_smooth said:
Gonna be away pretty much the rest of the day, but, may get a chance to peak in later. So-so night last night with a few small GPP cashes. Looking at tonight, I liked [as many did] the NYY against Cashner last night. With the postponement and Cashner slated to go tonight, I see no reason to like them any less. Implied run total of 5.4. Liking the A's a lot too; relatively cheap & an implied run total of 5.03 against Ian Kennedy. I'll mention one more I'm really high on for tonight: Nick Williams against SFG. He's cheap, Gratton seems to have worse numbers against LHB, and Williams is starting to heat up. With Hoskins on the DL, he should be starting. Just going to run out two cheap GPP LU's tonight, and he's in both of them.
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I noticed how cheap some of the NY options are tonight.  Not the top OFs, but I could fit in 3-4 guys like Bird, Gardner, Didi, Sanchez in with a top SP today easy.  

Love the N.Williams call.  I play him a ton.  :thumbup:

 
Holy #### - I just saw the Oak prices on FD.  :lol:   Not that I need encouragement to try them more than I do, but sign me up for all of that.  I think I read that K.Davis should be back tonight too.  

Another interesting option is AZ.   I just looked, and the roof is open today despite it looking like it's hot as hell.   Lamb/Descalso/Peralta/JR Murphy are cheap too.  Toronto bats are also right at that 3.0 range as well.  

I think I am talking myself into 100% stud SP route tonight.  As far as vs. the worst O, it looks like Carrasco has the best matchup and is cheapest.

 
KarmaPolice said:
I noticed how cheap some of the NY options are tonight.  Not the top OFs, but I could fit in 3-4 guys like Bird, Gardner, Didi, Sanchez in with a top SP today easy.  

Love the N.Williams call.  I play him a ton.  :thumbup:
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I use Williams alot too. Tigers are pretty cheap too and have been on a little roll lately.

 
Beiber was close to being very good, had 2 outs in 6th then gave up back-to-back hr and then bullpen blew a 4 run lead.  Ended up 1.25 in and 1 out.  Plus I did win .50 in the free NBA tournament so plus .25 on the night!!

I think I am going to 8-10 lineups tonight and half with stacks and half with best player available.  Will redo the NYY/BAL stack I had in at least one.  As mentioned, interesting selection on pitchers.

 
Ownership is usually lower on these bigger slates, but after I looked at stuff, I took a peek at Vegas implied totals to see what people might gravitate towards and was disappointed to see a couple of the teams on there that I had my eye on.  In order they are:

Dodgers, NY, Oak, AZ, LAA, Det, KC, Cubs, Seattle, Mets.  

Still haven't dug too deep, but looked at the bullpen and HR/9 ratings.  Oakland gets the 3rd worst pen, and 3rd highest SP Hr/9 on the night, and Az gets the 2nd worst pen.  Both places look to be 90degrees+ as well.  

A couple teams that had both stats in the top that weren't on the Vegas list were  Toronto and Milwaukee.  Toronto gets 5th worst pen and 6th highest HR/9.  Milwaukee is 12th/2nd.  Not as warm in these spots though.  

Looked at the statcast site, and with 100 AB+ sample sizes Carrasco, Sale, Strasburg all have 25%+ K rate vs the batters they have faced on their opponents tonight.   Right now leaning towards those 3 + Tort/Oak/Az/Milw/NY and HR hunting with Balt, Mia, Seattle, W.Sox.

 
I put in 4 25cent entries on DK too, and might be doing the opposite of RW.  Right now I have Sale/Carrasco in there and will probably just mix and match bats after that.   If I do something different, it will probably be stud/Taillon.  

@Raging weasel - I have seen D.Santana as a gpp flier on DK mentioned on RG.  It's Coors, but 4.0K and I guess has decent stuff.   They also said that A.Pruitt looks like he's the long reliever coming up after Romo's 1 inning.   4.5k there, but probably even riskier.  

 
Lineup coming out, I was looking deeper, and saw that Cole's K% vs. LHBs this season is 46%.  No Mookie tonight, and 6LHBs in the lineup for Boston.  

I was looking at the ump ratings, and Cole/Sale get an Extreme Pitcher, Strasburg gets a Hitter, and Carrasco gets Extreme Hitter ump ratings.  

On FD I might just be saying F-it and near fading NY and Coors, just playing Sale/Cole and hitting Toronto/Oak/Az/Milw.

 
This is a fun night for sure.  I just fit in 4Oak and 4NY bats with Sale:  Sale Bird Lowrie Chapman Didi Piscotty Pinder Hicks Gardner.  Still 500 left to pivot around bats or switch to Cole on that one.  

 
Only gpp that cashed was Gray/Montas with Yanks /Col.

In my 3man we both had all the same guys except he used Rosario and I used Cain so lost that by 4.

$2.75 in .50 out.

 
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Broke even or a tiny bit down with my 25centers.  I think the LUs I had Murphy/Lamb/Descalso/Peralta had another HR, but also had Sale.  They cashed, but would have been a lot better if Cole was in those or I had put Strasburg in any of the LUs I used.  Stras is just a P I never seem to use for some reason, and I actually thought he was in the worst spot of the 4. 

One of those nights were I had the bats close - used a lot of Az and Oak, but didn't have the SPs. 

 
Not sure if I will do much for early.  If anything just wing it when LUs come up for 25cent on DK or two.  

For main slate, I just wrote down quick from their overview the higher swK% SPs and the teams the K% the most vs. that handedness and Greinke, C.Smith, Richards popped up.  The roof in AZ is scheduled to be closed today and tomorrow, so that helps the pitchers there.  Haven't looked past that.   

 
KarmaPolice said:
Broke even or a tiny bit down with my 25centers.  I think the LUs I had Murphy/Lamb/Descalso/Peralta had another HR, but also had Sale.  They cashed, but would have been a lot better if Cole was in those or I had put Strasburg in any of the LUs I used.  Stras is just a P I never seem to use for some reason, and I actually thought he was in the worst spot of the 4. 

One of those nights were I had the bats close - used a lot of Az and Oak, but didn't have the SPs. 
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Same boat -- Carrasco tanked many lineups.   $3 in and $1.50 out.

Today just 1 entry in the $1 GPP

 
Just did a $1 gpp for today and it was a disaster. Used Boyd/Kuhl with Wash+Oak stacks and Kratz and probably won't break 70 points.

Missed the main slate so will try again tomorrow.

 
Raging weasel said:
Just did a $1 gpp for today and it was a disaster. Used Boyd/Kuhl with Wash+Oak stacks and Kratz and probably won't break 70 points.

Missed the main slate so will try again tomorrow.
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You might want to reconsider that after looking at the starting pitching today.   :X

 
Pretty weak SP to choose from today. Lester may be ok vs lefty heavy Mets but not paying top dollar for Clevinger.  Probably better to just dumpster dive and load up on bats from LAD/Col and Wash/Atl. Rain has me worried about NY/Balt but may take a shot on a game stack and hope they just delay and not ppd. Wacha,Kingham,Matz, Gossett and Covey probably the only other arms I'll consider.

 
Raging weasel said:
Pretty weak SP to choose from today. Lester may be ok vs lefty heavy Mets but not paying top dollar for Clevinger.  Probably better to just dumpster dive and load up on bats from LAD/Col and Wash/Atl. Rain has me worried about NY/Balt but may take a shot on a game stack and hope they just delay and not ppd. Wacha,Kingham,Matz, Gossett and Covey probably the only other arms I'll consider.
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Usually on slates like this, I will start by looking at bottom Os, not top SPs (since there really isn't one).  

Of the bottom 10 wOBA teams vs. handedness of the SP today, 6 are on the slate (in order):  Mets, Balt, W.sox, KC, Det, Stl.     If I can, I usually like to see SPs with swK% at 10+, so that only leaves German (13.8), Kingham (11.8), and Lester (10.1).  Of those, I think Lester is the safest, but the other two might have more boom/bust upside.  German Ks both sides well, but his rate vs. RHBs is 30.8, and Balt will probably be righty heavy.  Same with Kingham - 33% vs. RHBs and StL will be righty heavy.   Balt Ks more than StL so there is that too.  Lester looks better if the more LHBs the Mets roll out, so I will be watching that.  

 
...and I just saw your post about the weather in Balt and took a peek, so I think my FD LUs will be  Lester and Kingham, probably with a lean toward Kingham b/c I think Lester will be higher owned.  

I think next might be Suter as a gpp option if just targeting bottom wOBA teams/higher team K%.  

 
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Also, @Raging weasel - I took a peek at the DK stuff, and  they have Fulmer, Suter, Lester as the best pt/$ SPs.   For ownership they have them as 5, 10, and 40% owned - so if you think he's worth a shot, Fulmer might be the best gpp play of them. 

For FD it's similar with Suter 2.5%, Fulmer 5%, and Lester about 30%.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
@Raging weasel - Is Fulmer worth a look today?
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He's been off lately and getting knocked around and not getting many Ks but for the price may be worth a shot. Also have scattered showers in the area and heavy right now but supposed to be fine for game time. I've been mostly terrible at using or going against Tiger pitching so far but today would lean towards stacking vs him so you'd have that going for you if you want to take a shot on him.

 
After that % post above,  I put a few in on DK too.   Just did the % game and tried Suter/Fulmer and their predicted lower owned teams of Minn, Pitts, Wash.    With those teams and SPs I was still able to get some Color, Clev, Cubs, and Atl hitters sprinkled in.  Again, can't be any worse that what I have been trotting out lately...

 
4 .25 gpps

Kingman Lester Contreras Aguilar Villar Shaw Russell Almora Choi Yelich

Lester Gossett Pina Muncy Lemahieu Arenado Taylor Blackmon Kemp Grichuk

Matz Covey Martin Freeman Albies Arenado Turner Blackmon Bradley Grichuk

Kingham Gibson Perez Abreu Dozier Moose Escobar Cain Merrifield Rosario

Good luck all!!

 
Only used Grichuk and his .091 BA in 2 lineups because he was the only guy playing I could afford. With 26 points I think he's the top scorer for the slate.

 
Raging weasel said:
Of course they didn't do much, finished 8th and 16th. Changed up my late gpp and finished 5/59 . Pretty good day- $2 in $6.12 out.
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Not what you were hoping for, but still a good day.  

I think I near 2xed on FD since I had Rosario in 4 of 10 LUs.    DK was a bust yet again.  

 
It's a 4 game slate, so I am just going to put in a $1 or so and get weird/low% with it.  NY will be hugely owned, so I won't stack them.  One idea I had was using 2 Cs on FD - Murphy and Flowers (if they play), and hitting more Braves, SD, KC guys.  

 
Funny on even a 4 game slate I can look at stuff and talk myself back and forth on things.  

NY is an obvious spot, but it doesn't look like Fiers walks a ton this year, and they might have a lesser LU since it's game 2 of a double header.  

LAA  looks like the best spot since Duffy gives up 45FB/40HC to RHBs, but if you look at their plate IQ, ouside of Trout the Angels have stunk vs. LHP this season.

Atl has a great O vs LHPs, but that is a bad park shift, they had to travel from east to west w/o a day off, and Richard seems to be an extreme ground ball pitcher to LHBs this year.

KC RHBs is a great place to look, but they have about 1 with decent stats, SD lefties would be another spot, but again - they probably have 1 worth anything.  

 
Raging weasel said:
Yeah, I had wanted to use Villanueva but not sure if he's going to play tonight.
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Had an eye on him too. 

Right now I am leaning towards an Az combo of Goldy/Murphy/Ahmed  or KC  3 man stack, then mixing in others.  Probably locking in Trout instead of NY OFs, and instead using Yankees at the other spots when i can. 

 
Hi again. Very busy over the weekend, but, did manage to put a few line-ups together both days and at this point, just about broke even for the week. 

Wasn't going to do anything tonight, but, got to changing my mind since I seem to do better on the single-entry slates with five games or less. So, two LU's tonight as follows:

#1 - SP/ Teheran, C-1B/ Goldschmidt, 2B/ Kinsler, 3B/ Andujar, SS/Ahmed, OF/ Trout - Gardner - L. Martin, UTL/ T. Flowers

#2 - SP/ Godley, C-1B/ Bird, 2B/ Kinsler, 3B/ Cozart, SS/ Galvis, OF/ Trout - Upton - Gardner, UTL/ John Ryan Murphy

The first LU, I put together on my own; I let RG's Lineup IQ App do #2.

 
reel_smooth said:
Hi again. Very busy over the weekend, but, did manage to put a few line-ups together both days and at this point, just about broke even for the week. 

Wasn't going to do anything tonight, but, got to changing my mind since I seem to do better on the single-entry slates with five games or less. So, two LU's tonight as follows:

#1 - SP/ Teheran, C-1B/ Goldschmidt, 2B/ Kinsler, 3B/ Andujar, SS/Ahmed, OF/ Trout - Gardner - L. Martin, UTL/ T. Flowers

#2 - SP/ Godley, C-1B/ Bird, 2B/ Kinsler, 3B/ Cozart, SS/ Galvis, OF/ Trout - Upton - Gardner, UTL/ John Ryan Murphy

The first LU, I put together on my own; I let RG's Lineup IQ App do #2.
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Bird is not starting in 2nd game

 
RG has NY, LAA, Az being the highly owned ones, Det, SF, KC as lower owned teams.  

I did a couple LUs with a KC stack, and a couple with Det.   Atl also fit well with Det and I stacked:  Freeman/Albies/Swanson/Camargo with Cany/Cast/L.Mart/Goodrum

 
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