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MLB 2018 (1 Viewer)

I did

Teheran Fiers Posey Miggy Panik Candelario Trout Castellanos McCutchen

Teheran Duffy Sanchez Freeman Albies Andujar Carmago Gardner  Frazier Owens

Kinda scary relying on Teheran but WTF it's 50 cents in a 4 game slate. Go Tigers #rallygoose 

Good luck all!!

 
Raging weasel said:
I did

Teheran Fiers Posey Miggy Panik Candelario Trout Castellanos McCutchen

Teheran Duffy Sanchez Freeman Albies Andujar Carmago Gardner  Frazier Owens

Kinda scary relying on Teheran but WTF it's 50 cents in a 4 game slate. Go Tigers #rallygoose 

Good luck all!!
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I stacked up AtL 2 different ways for my DK LUs. = Tropeano/Fiers Flowers Freeman Albies Camargo Swanson Trout Castellanos Upton   Then did another basically the same but had Markakis instead of the C and used the Az C.  

 
Today is like the opposite of yesterday, too much good pitching. Scherzer,Paxton,Kluber at the top with forum fav Stripling plus Corbin,Newcomb and Heaney. Hard to get bats from Bos, Yanks, Wash or LAA if you start with Scherzer.

Might be a good night to look at karma polices Oak/Seat guys and Hou bats are at a slight discount due to facing Paxton. I like a couple Tor bats tonight too.

Aggghh!-- too many games to choose from my head is going to explode.

 
Raging weasel said:
Today is like the opposite of yesterday, too much good pitching. Scherzer,Paxton,Kluber at the top with forum fav Stripling plus Corbin,Newcomb and Heaney. Hard to get bats from Bos, Yanks, Wash or LAA if you start with Scherzer.

Might be a good night to look at karma polices Oak/Seat guys and Hou bats are at a slight discount due to facing Paxton. I like a couple Tor bats tonight too.

Aggghh!-- too many games to choose from my head is going to explode.
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Oak is going to be popular, at least on FD.  Pretty cheap, and I could fit them in easily with Scherzer or Kluber.  I think it's the highest Vegas total too.  Not saying it's a bad play, just saying it will be owned.  

Plate IQ is being stupid, so I might just wing it today.  Just thinking of general plays that might be off the board for gpps.   My initial list was:

Mets, KC, Seattle, Houst, SD, Miami, Milwaukee.  

Not going TB vs Scherzer, but usually a good place to start is a decent O vs an SP that is good and will be highly owned.  We have been all the studs (maybe not Verlander) struggle, so try to catch an off night.  Milwaukee gets the best SP of the options, but also the combo of worst bullpen/good park.  Mets and KC were on the list of good team O vs handedness of SP,  and SD because I usually write down a possible late game team and they have a few guys that crush LHP, and Newcomb has struggled with walk this season.  

Not doing a ton tonight, just a few bucks of WTF gpps.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
@reel_smooth - how have you been doing with the RG LUs, and do you tweak them at all?  

Seems like when I use them they are turds.  
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Actually, when I first got back into the swing [pun completely intended  :D ] of MLB on FD, that's what I used the first couple of days and won $35. No adjustments. I guess for me, I now just compare them to my research & if it looks close, I just run with it. But I also do most of them on my own and by comparison lately, I've been doing better by myself without that App.  

 
Anyway, onward to today; last night, not so good.

Given that Philly seems to be reeling of late, and that Eflin has been lit up his last few starts, I'm leaning towards a CHC stack. Implied total of 4.77 runs for the Cubs and there are some reasonably priced options there.

Scherzer is definitely going to be getting the bulk of my SP starts tonight; going to try to find some value where I can - Jason Heyward comes immediately to mind. 2.5K, been hitting good of late, good Woba at .358, ISO at .165. Also, Contreras at 3.3K & Happ at 2.9K [.361 Woba & .281 ISO vs RHP]. 

 
reel_smooth said:
Anyway, onward to today; last night, not so good.

Given that Philly seems to be reeling of late, and that Eflin has been lit up his last few starts, I'm leaning towards a CHC stack. Implied total of 4.77 runs for the Cubs and there are some reasonably priced options there.

Scherzer is definitely going to be getting the bulk of my SP starts tonight; going to try to find some value where I can - Jason Heyward comes immediately to mind. 2.5K, been hitting good of late, good Woba at .358, ISO at .165. Also, Contreras at 3.3K & Happ at 2.9K [.361 Woba & .281 ISO vs RHP]. 
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I was looking at them, but got off for a couple reasons - lineup came out and no Happ paired with the power at the bottom of the order again.  I like them better when they have the power bats closer together.  Also, it looks like it's chilly and the wind is blowing in.  

Also, it depends on the stats you like looking at.  If it's a 100 bat sample size when I look, I have been looking at this season's stats and on big slates I like to see minimum .180 ISO and prefer +.200.  Just don't love that the main guys with power vs. RHBs on the year are batting 6 and 7 at home.  Who knows though.  

As for pairing Scherzer with bats and looking for value, a few cheap guys that stood out with strong ISO were guys like Canha, Pinder, Stassi, Gattis, Marisnick, Valencia 

After noticing the price drop on Cabrera, I am putting together a few Scherzer/Mets teams.  Cobb stinks, and you can get Nimmo/Cabrera/Conforto in there with or without another Mets bat and still have around 3K/player leftover.  

Good luck with whoever you land on for the night!!

 
Yeah, I've been doing some scrambling this afternoon; looking like some plans are changing, a lot. Will look at that Mets Stack & perhaps Valencia in Baltimore. One stack I am set on trying to keep is the Oak/Tex game; O/U is 10.5.

Wiggled Judge into a few LU's and was really scratching my head as to why he's on the bench to start the night. With two out of four games in BAL rained out over the weekend, it's not as if he hasn't been rested. 

 
reel_smooth said:
Yeah, I've been doing some scrambling this afternoon; looking like some plans are changing, a lot. Will look at that Mets Stack & perhaps Valencia in Baltimore. One stack I am set on trying to keep is the Oak/Tex game; O/U is 10.5.

Wiggled Judge into a few LU's and was really scratching my head as to why he's on the bench to start the night. With two out of four games in BAL rained out over the weekend, it's not as if he hasn't been rested. 
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Keep in mind that I am trying to be weirder since I am doing the 25cent entries, and I haven't been that accurate lately.. :)   

Just seemed like the Mets popped a tad, and one LU I had them paired with Cincy :  Scherzer Barnhart Cabrera Frazier A.Diaz Nimmo Conforto Duvall Suarez.      Oak/Tex are good, but decided they will be too popular.  Neither team are near the top as far as team wOBA vs. handedness of the SP, so I am wondering if it just mainly about the temperature/stadium, and less about the teams playing.  

If I am looking at stacks, I am trying to stick to the better Os vs handedness of SP, and tonight that list was:  Bost, NY, Cubs, Houst, Az, LAA, Seattle, Clev, KC, Cinc, Mets, Milw.  After that I am just trying to think of lower owned options and bats with power from those teams.  

The bottom 8 teams on the list were:  Miami, Oak, Color, SD, Balt, Toront, Det, StL. 

 
For OAK/TEX, it's mostly about the weather & stadium. But Matt Moore is also getting lit up by LHB, to the tune of .448 Woba & .255 ISO. Manea, in the other dugout, has a .323 Woba & .176 ISo to RHB. Not earth-shattering, but, with very warm & humid conditions, the potential is certainly there. 

Doing 4 .25$'ers myself, along with two $1 single-entries and a free-roll. Definitely a lot to look at and appreciate the research you're throwing out there as well. 

 
@reel_smooth - you mention NY and Judge.  if you use some cheap power, you can still fit Scherzer with 3-4 NY guys.  Another LU I had:

Scherzer Sanchez D.Travis Andujar Kingery Hicks Gardner Canha Meadows in as a gpp too.  and it's fairly easy to rotate other NY bats in and out of there - most have power.

 
Took a peek at their projections for popular teams/stacks on the night, and in order the top ones were:  Bost, Oak, NY, Mets, Tex, Balt.  

Lowest were:  Milwaukee, TB, Seattle, Philly, Miami, Pitts.  Those were <1% compared to Bost/Oak at 10%+.  

 
I actually did work a NYY stack in of Gardner, Stanton & Andujar, using Carlos Martinez as the SP. Big problem for me now is waiting for TEX & OAK to get their LU's out there. Hoping I don't have to scramble anymore with some 'NS'.  

 
reel_smooth said:
I actually did work a NYY stack in of Gardner, Stanton & Andujar, using Carlos Martinez as the SP. Big problem for me now is waiting for TEX & OAK to get their LU's out there. Hoping I don't have to scramble anymore with some 'NS'.  
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Oak/Tex has been out for a bit.  

 
If gpps are about %s, I am going for it tonight since two of the low % teams are also on the better Os list I started with.  Let's go WTF and fire up some Brewers and Seattle stacks... 

 
reel_smooth said:
Yeah, I've been doing some scrambling this afternoon; looking like some plans are changing, a lot. Will look at that Mets Stack & perhaps Valencia in Baltimore. One stack I am set on trying to keep is the Oak/Tex game; O/U is 10.5.

Wiggled Judge into a few LU's and was really scratching my head as to why he's on the bench to start the night. With two out of four games in BAL rained out over the weekend, it's not as if he hasn't been rested. 
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Judge played a double header here in Detroit yesterday and set the new record for striking out with 7. 

 
Freeroll

Hendricks Wright Contreras Rizzo Albies Bryant Turner  Harper Soto Upton

$1   SE gpp

heaney Stripling Lucroy Smoak Solarte Chapman Semien Trout Canha Piscotty

.25ers

Heaney Musgrove Posey Mancini Carpenter Duffy Machado Trout Cruz Renfoe

Hendricks Musgrove Sanchez Bird Holt Devers Bogaerts JDmart Benitendi Hicks

Scherzer Musgrove Barnhart Votto Nunez Devers Peraza Benitendi Duvall Winker

 
Raging weasel said:
Yes, it's the May silver status freeroll. They sent it to me, not sure what I did to qualify.
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I had that as well -thanks for the reminder. I forgot to put in a LU.  There is also a free one on big slates that pays out.  

For the silver status I tried 2 lower pitchers, Cleveland stack, Trout, T.Hernand, and Jr Murphy. 

The main free one I did Paxton/Stripling for luck and just mixed bats. 

 
How many times have I said it's frustrating when I leave Seager off my Seattle LUs?  It always feels like he gets the L-L HRs.  

 
Not super successful here either.  I think I am $3 in, $2 out right now.  $1 is coming from the FD free roll that I forgot I put a LU in for - had Scherzer, Seattle (the one LU with Seager) and a Philly stack with N.Williams.  

I think the other 2 min cashing were Scherzer/NY LUs that had Andujar.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
As it turned out my pitching calls were not that bad other than too much Hendrix. Offenses for LAA,Oak,Cin and Wash not doing much is what really kept me from cashing as 2 of my lineups missed the cut by 2 and 4.3 points.

$1.75 in zero return.

Short early slate looks interesting with some nice but expensive bats to choose from (Wash,Cle,Atl) and decent SP options for the slate size.

 
reel_smooth said:
For OAK/TEX, it's mostly about the weather & stadium. But Matt Moore is also getting lit up by LHB, to the tune of .448 Woba & .255 ISO. Manea, in the other dugout, has a .323 Woba & .176 ISo to RHB. Not earth-shattering, but, with very warm & humid conditions, the potential is certainly there. 

Doing 4 .25$'ers myself, along with two $1 single-entries and a free-roll. Definitely a lot to look at and appreciate the research you're throwing out there as well. 
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Full disclosure - I have been doing this just for the last year and a half.  

Part of my daily battles is when I see situations like this:  crappy SP stats, but I am also showing a team going against them that don't have the best stats vs. that handedness of SP.   Complicating matters is if I don't see those SPs on a team with a subpar bullpen rating and/or on the list of SPs with high walk rates/High HR/9.   :shrug:   It also goes back to my gripe that it seems like the bullpen matchups and data are the key, but that is stuff that you have to pay even more $ to get the info for.  

Today has more of those examples.  

I guess that's why I have been trying to find "better" Os in less popular situations for the gpps.  

 
Also, after staring at my LUs last night on a huge slate, I probably need to settle down the weirdness just a tad on those bigger slates.  Too many teams and stacks to beat to be overloading on situations like Milwaukee.   So maybe just not overloading on the top 5 owned teams, but also not overloading on the bottom 5 owned teams?  :lol:

That said, a small slate like today is perfect for it.   FD only has 3 games, DK has 5.  Like Weasel said, I am guessing everybody will be looking at NY, Atl, Cleveland stacks and ownership is even higher on these shorter slates, so some of those guys might be pushing 30%+ owned.  That is probably the time to try Milwaukee or the Mets again.  

 
Raging weasel said:
Bullpens could be key in the early slate. SD and TB are starting pitchers who will likely last 3 innings at the most.
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The RG podcast said that Yarbrough was the guy on deck to take most of the innings today for TB.  A LHP too, and seems to cough up more FBs than the guy slated to start.  

 
2 .25ers

Carrasco Roark Gomes Alonso Difo Rendon Lindor Brantley Taylor Mancini

Folty Wheeler Gomes Freeman Albies Camargo Turner Chisenhall Dyson Culberson

 
Tonight I have a bit to do, so just going to wing it for the most part with the $1.50 in 25cent entries on FD tonight.  

I glanced at the Vegas totals, and those teams are: Bost, Oak, Tex, NY, Min, Stl.    I was thinking of LAA, Houst, Color, Cinc, Det.   I did have Tex and Minn written down too.

Looking at Bost, they just have JD Mart and Devers with good #s vs. LHP.  

NY is also weird.  They have good numbers vs. RHPs besides Stanton and Gardner on the year.  Then I saw this kid's K% vs. RHBs was 35% on the year, and NY's is about 27% for their RHBs.  THEN I saw that he throws about 57% sinkers and only have Judge, Bird, Sanchez and Torres hit those.  His high K% pitch is a slider, and Judge/Torres whiff 50%+ vs. them.  

Long story short, I looked at them this morning, but backed off besides trying 1-2 as one offs.  

Again, none of this factors in the bullpens, so who knows.  

 
Other quick notes I wrote down as I scanned stuff quick:

3 teams vs. an SP with a high HR/9 rate, and a low rated bullpen:  Stl, Min, LAA.   I wish one of them was on the road though. 

Oak SP has that 40FB/40HC% vs. LHBs that is great to target for HRs, and also has a low K% which is great for guys like Gallo.  Also weird is that he has a 0% walk rate to LHBs, and Tex usually spreads out their LHBs, so I am not sure about the stack.  Thinking about that still.  

Colon also has a low walk rate to both sides of the plate on the year.  

Cin SP has a 10% walk rate to both handedness of batter.  

Odorizzi has a 50% FB to both sides of the plate on the year.  W.Sox have plenty of power in their LU, and if I remember right Target Field is better for RHBs.  

Long story short, I am leaning towards trying a team or two in the W.Sox/Min or Color/Cinc games and try the ballpark/bullpen combos.  Then try to find power upside with teams like Houst, NY, LAA, Tex, Oak, Det. 

 
Detroit is actually really good vs LHP this year. They are 1st in BA and hard contact% and 2nd or 3rd in Woba.

I'm doing 4 .25ers and 3 will be Gray(NY)/Quintana and the other Flaherty/Ferguson. Going to use bats from Stl,Det,Oak,Hou,Col,LAA and Minn.

Should break even or be up .25 from the early slate.

 
Raging weasel said:
Detroit is actually really good vs LHP this year. They are 1st in BA and hard contact% and 2nd or 3rd in Woba.
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I saw this, and since it's small sample size, I looked at 2017-2018 and it's just McCann and Cast that have good #s vs LHP on Plate IQ.  Are they just playing above their level on the year, or are they going to start regressing??

 
I looked at %s and their top owned teams of the night are:  Color, Bost, Oak, Tex, Minn, Stl, NY.  (in order)

Of the teams I wrote down, that might make me look at W.Sox, Cincy, Det, Tort, Houst, and LAA a little more.  

 
this is what Im rolling with

quintana gray molina jdmart dozier cozart escobar trout upton ozuna

quintana gray barhart votto nunez suarez bogaerts jdmart gardner winker

quintana gray lucroy olson altuve bregman semien davis springer reddick

flaherty fergusan mcann goodrum kinsler arenado story blackmon castellanos grossman

good luck all!!!

 
8 entries into .25 GPP.  Quintana,Flaherty,ERod, JGray, and Ohtani were all used.  My biggest one off lineup uses the bottom of the STL order...

Quintana, Molina, Gyorko, Munoz, Valbuena, Springer, Blackmon,JMart, Bader.

 
Another split slate day and the early is lacking quality SP options. Usually love Mikolas but not at 10.9k as he doesn't get enough Ks. 10.6k is alot for Barrios and he will probably be the chalk but has 10k potential at home so he's in for sure.

I've been stacking vs Sheilds all year and he's proved me wrong every time so today I'm going to use him at SP2. Plus I'm mad at the Twins for letting me down last night.

You could try Taillion if LAD goes rights heavy but he's been getting crushed by lefty power. Only other guy I'd take a shot on is Chatwood as the Phil's are slumping.

Top stack option is probably Stl but I'm just going to take a couple guys from a few teams that I think are in good spots and hope for the best.

Playing a big 25 cents in the early and going with this pending lineup release.

Barrios Sheilds Barnhart Martinez Carpenter Bryant Baez Blackmon CarGo Duvall

 
I am going to try 2 in the all-day and 2 in the early on DK.  

One early I have Pivetta/Berrios and stacked 4 Cincy guys.  Working on the others.  Just noticed that it's an even earlier start today.  

 
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