Despite what the numbers say, I believe the Patriots are better on D than the Colts right now, and that the Colts' passing game is better than the Patriots'. But I believe the Patriots will win with a big passing game from Brady, and I believe the Colts will abandon the run at some point in this game and it will cost them.
Another difference from previous years that few are mentioning is the fact that the Colts have NOT abandoned the run this year as in previous years. I agree with everyone that thinks the Colts (behind Edge) will win this one.For those touting the "trends" - tell that to Detroit - the Bears were 0-3 in Ford Field going into Sunday and they hadn't swept Detroit in a season series in a while. Tell that to the Packers who haven't started off 1-6 in...well, a long freaking time. Tell that to LT2 who has been held to >100 rushing yards for the last 2 weeks - combined. Trends are interesting - but hardly fortell the future.
The Indy team that NE had beaten over the last few years is different:
1) Their defense is better (I still don't think great) - and whoever called the Rams an "average" offense with Bulger, Holt, Curtiss and SJax - well, double check.
2) Indy doesn't abandon the run - even though they are still the same offense that threw 49 TDs and had 3 - 1,000 yard WRs last year. My point is that they don't need to play "score in 3 plays"...but if they needed to, they still could.
Indy will not only win this game, they will do it in the most physical, demeaning way - they will run the ball down NE collective throats. It will not be high scoring, it will not be Manning vs. Brady. It will be Edge with his picture on the trailer (and I don't own him in any fantsay league) - Indy will do what they have done all THIS year = control the clock, play solid D, throw when necessary to keep NE honest - maybe even gash 'em for a big play or two and win.
Indy is not the only team that is different. Another strange fact is how NE has turned into a passing team - a factor that will play into the Colts' defensive strength (Freeney). I believe Brady will see the turf a few times thanks to a particular Colt DE (whom I don't own either). Ironically, if there is a team I could see abonding the run and throwing too much, it's the Pats. I'm not saying the Patriots are dumb - far from it. I just think they have changed their offensive philosophy in a way that slightly favors the Colts in this game.
Manning is a great passer - who this year has learned the necessary patience to become a great QB. He's not putting up great fantasy numbers, but he's winning. Ironically this is what has been said of Brady. Manning is learning to win by NOT throwing the ball. I think Manning has a better supporting cast on offense and defense that is playing well.
Edge>Dillon
Harrison & Wayne > Branch & Givens
Manning ? Brady (equal maybe - we'll see after this year)