More valuable? Bush or rookie RB in DEN or IND? (1 Viewer)

[SammyJankis]

The FA running market is quickly sorting itself out. Two teams that desperately need a RB right now are the Colts and the Broncos. I'm sure Dominic Rhodes and Tatum Bell/Ron Dayne owners are out there telling themselves that they've already got the guy. But I don't think so.

I think right now its extremely likely that the Colts and Broncos draft rookie RBs. If so, how valuable does that make them? More valuable that even Reggie Bush?

Reggie Bush is likely the pick in dynasty leagues. But in redrafts, I can imagine a scenario where Bush is taken after two other rookie runners:

1) Denver rookie RB

2) Indy rookie RB

3) Bush

 

[-OZ-]

Redraft - I'm not drafting Bush if he's in Houston.

Dynasty, I'm taking Bush 1.01, period.

 

[B Maverick]

I would rank the Indy RB (if its a 1st round guy) as the #1. Bush #2 if in Houston and the Denver RB #3. Denver still has Bell and re-signed Dayne (for what thats worth). And you never know what you will get with shanny.

Dynasty or redraft

 

[Chaos Commish]

Redraft - I'm not drafting Bush if he's in Houston.

Dynasty, I'm taking Bush 1.01, period.

Even in a redraft, I'll probably take Bush before any rookie RB no matter where the others land. If Williams lands in a juicy situation, then I'd rethink this, but not for the other two. I kind of like the idea of Bush in Houston with Kubiak. One thing that has followed Bush throughout his career is that he is just mindblowing in practice. He didn't start as a freshmen at USC, but there was all kinds of talk about how incredible he was. The same thing could be heard every year he was there. LenDale gushes about how amazing Bush is in practice. I think it will apply in training camp, and he will quickly establish himself as the best back on whatever team he ends up with.

 

[Baracuda]

Reggie Bush in a dynasty. Period. In a re-draft, I'd want to see who Denver and Indy draft 1st, but would consider Bush the front runner still as of today.

 

[SSOG]

I would rank the Indy RB (if its a 1st round guy) as the #1. Bush #2 if in Houston and the Denver RB #3. Denver still has Bell and re-signed Dayne (for what thats worth). And you never know what you will get with shanny.

Dynasty or redraft

I agree with this order. Indy RB #1, as long as its a first-day selection.

Reggie Bush #2.

Denver RB #3. A distant, DISTANT #3, at that.

Consider the following:

Point #1- Denver has drafted an RB in 9 of the past 11 years (the Shanahan Era).

Point #2- Of those 9 rookie RBs, only 2 have been handed the RB job as a rookie (although several others have been backups and taken over due to injury).

Point #3- Those two RBs were Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis.

Point #4- The odds of Denver landing a Portis or Davis type talent outside of the 1st round are miniscule.

Point #5- During the Shanahan Era, 0 of the 9 RBs were taken in the first round.

Now, if Shanahan breaks from tradition and drafts an RB in the first round, or possibly even in the second round, then I'll revise my assessment. If he doesn't... I really do NOT expect Denver's rookie RB to win the starting job. Especially not given how enamored the front office is with Dayne. This doesn't mean that Denver's rookie can't still be handed the job at some point due to injuries... but I don't want to base my draft on an RB I don't expect to get any starts outside of an injury to the guys ahead of him.

 

[EBF]

I can't see myself drafting any of the other rookie backs over Bush unless LenDale White ends up with a team like New England or Pittsburgh.

 

[UnknownCoach]

There will only be a handful of rookie RBs even worth drafting in a redraft league. Of those, if one lands in Indy in round one, and Indy doesnt sign Morris or Bennett then he would be number one.

If Denver drafted a back in round 1, I'd take him before Bush. This is unlikely to happen.

If a back is drafted in the first half of round 1 in a situation that makes him an immediate featured back, I'd probably take him before Bush. There arent many teams where this might happen. San Fransisco or even Tennessee could surprise or trade down. Some other team may surprise us as well.

 

[pantherman]

I have the first, fifth and sixth pick in a dynasty 15 team league. Bush is #1. There are to many senarios to figure, but I would love to have Williams with the right team. I may take three backs with these picks. I also have the 14th pick, because I lost the Super Bowl. The others were aquired via trade before I knew where they were picking.

 

[JohnnyU]

If the Colts take Joseph Addai in the first round, no one in their right mind would ever take Addai over Bush or Deangelo Williams in dynasty leagues, no matter what their situation. Having said that, I have the #3 pick in one dynasty league (traded for), and I would love it if someone actually did that.

Edited to say I had a brain fart and said Reggie Williams instead of Deangelo.

 

[Chaos Commish]

If the Colts take Joseph Addai in the first round, no one in their right mind would ever take Addai over Bush or Reggie Williams in dynasty leagues, no matter what their situation. Having said that, I have the #3 pick in one dynasty league (traded for), and I would love it if someone actually did that.

 

[B Maverick]

Not saying i would but devils advocate here. Addai runs a 4.4 or better. Has outstanding hands and can run up the middle. He is in the mold of Edge although not as talented.

As a dynasty back in the most prolific offense in the league, why wouldnt you even consider it? Addai in Indy should be the starter. There is plenty of run room with their passing game. He will catch a lot of passes.

Bush may only see the ball 15 times a game, rec and rushing. Davis is a good back when healthy and Morency is a good backup as well.

I wouldnt think its a slam dunk just because Addai is the man in Indy and not Williams, White or Maroney.

And given the #1 pick, how much better would you be if you traded the #1 to a bush lover and dropped a couple spots, got addai in Indy and a nice prize to move down?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

If the Colts take Joseph Addai in the first round, no one in their right mind would ever take Addai over Bush or Reggie   Williams in dynasty leagues, no matter what their situation.  Having said that, I have the #3 pick in one dynasty league (traded for), and I would love it if someone actually did that.

I think he means Deangelo

 

[EBF]

As a dynasty back in the most prolific offense in the league, why wouldnt you even consider it? Addai in Indy should be the starter. There is plenty of run room with their passing game.  He will catch a lot of passes.

Drafting on situation alone is playing with fire in dynasty leagues. The problem with guys like Addai is that they're usually not special enough to hold a starting job in the NFL. So while you may get an Anthony Thomas rookie year out of someone like Addai, you'll probably be disappointed when he's replaced by a superior back in another season or two.Look at the list of NFL RBs who have been starters for 2-3 straight years. Most of them are very, very good. I always try to remind people that it takes a freak of nature to keep a starting RB job in the NFL. Most second tier prospects simply aren't good enough to get it done. Every year brings us another boatload of guys like Vernand Morency, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Moats, Frank Gore, JJ Arrington, Maurice Clarett, and Marion Barber. It's a numbers game. They simply can't all pan out.

Obviously some first round picks also end up busting, but their odds of success are better. Why play against the odds?

 

[bumpman]

Not saying i would but devils advocate here. Addai runs a 4.4 or better. Has outstanding hands and can run up the middle. He is in the mold of Edge although not as talented.

As a dynasty back in the most prolific offense in the league, why wouldnt you even consider it? Addai in Indy should be the starter. There is plenty of run room with their passing game. He will catch a lot of passes.

Bush may only see the ball 15 times a game, rec and rushing. Davis is a good back when healthy and Morency is a good backup as well.

I wouldnt think its a slam dunk just because Addai is the man in Indy and not Williams, White or Maroney.

And given the #1 pick, how much better would you be if you traded the #1 to a bush lover and dropped a couple spots, got addai in Indy and a nice prize to move down?

For dynasty, Bush #1 is a no-brainer. As the number one pick overall, Bush will get every chance possible to develop into a featured weapon in whatever offense he is in. This year, he might share time with DD, but next year and thereafter, you know his opportunities to be featured will come. If Addai ends up in Indy, how do you know he is going to come out on top over the long run? Being a low first rounder or high second rounder doesn't really give you the latitude that first pick overall will get. Look at Arrington in AZ, Bell in DEN, or even Chris Perry in Cincy (although I think Perry will eventually get his chance). They are still waiting. Indy could draft Addai this year and get another RB next year in FA or the draft. I don't think you will see HOU displace Bush unless he truly busts or proves he can't handle the load over a full three year period.Redraft is a different story.

 

[JohnnyU]

If the Colts take Joseph Addai in the first round, no one in their right mind would ever take Addai over Bush or Reggie   Williams in dynasty leagues, no matter what their situation.  Having said that, I have the #3 pick in one dynasty league (traded for), and I would love it if someone actually did that.

I think he means Deangelo

Yep, I had a brain fart and meant to say Deangelo Williams, not Reggie.

 

[JohnnyU]

Indy could draft Addai this year and get another RB next year in FA or the draft.  I don't think you will see HOU displace Bush unless he truly busts or proves he can't handle the load over a full three year period.

Very smart post here. EBF made a similar reference.

 

[SoloMatisse]

Reggie Bush is roughly the same size as Antoine Randle-El.....about 8 lbs heavier...same height. Just thought Id throw this out there because I wouldnt want ARE lining up in my favorite team's backfield as an every down back either. People that draft Bush expecting he's gonna be some kindof NFL SUPERHERO just because he was all-world in college in a conference where defense is optional...going to the worst team in the league.....while potentially passing on other rookie RBs in situations like Denver or Indy....are being misled.......there's just too much working against this Bush thing working out as a blockbuster situation. Speed is what this man is all about, and I do like that, but that's just a small portion of the formula for success he'll need at the next level. I think in time, he can eventually be a Tiki Barber-like success story, but not in the next year or two.

 

[JohnnyU]

Speed is what this man is all about, and I do like that, but that's just a small portion of the formula for success he'll need at the next level.  I think in time, he can eventually be a Tiki Barber-like success story, but not in the next year or two.

He has vision, moves, etc.. Didn't you notice that? I'm not going to sit here and tell you he will be the next greatest RB since Gayle Sayers. That would be stupid. What I will tell you is that he will be a play maker in the NFL, both at rushing and receiving.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

As a dynasty back in the most prolific offense in the league, why wouldnt you even consider it? Addai in Indy should be the starter. There is plenty of run room with their passing game. He will catch a lot of passes.

Drafting on situation alone is playing with fire in dynasty leagues. The problem with guys like Addai is that they're usually not special enough to hold a starting job in the NFL. So while you may get an Anthony Thomas rookie year out of someone like Addai, you'll probably be disappointed when he's replaced by a superior back in another season or two.Look at the list of NFL RBs who have been starters for 2-3 straight years. Most of them are very, very good. I always try to remind people that it takes a freak of nature to keep a starting RB job in the NFL. Most second tier prospects simply aren't good enough to get it done. Every year brings us another boatload of guys like Vernand Morency, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Moats, Frank Gore, JJ Arrington, Maurice Clarett, and Marion Barber. It's a numbers game. They simply can't all pan out.

Obviously some first round picks also end up busting, but their odds of success are better. Why play against the odds?

Bingo....In a dynasty Bush is #1 no matter how the NFL draft goes.

 

[Sopranos]

I would rank the Indy RB (if its a 1st round guy) as the #1. Bush #2 if in Houston and the Denver RB #3. Denver still has Bell and re-signed Dayne (for what thats worth). And you never know what you will get with shanny.

Dynasty or redraft

Couldnt have said it better

 

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