culdeus
Footballguy
So have refis really dried up? It's hard to know if people would have procrastinated or what.
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Mortgage Rates (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter MechEng
- Start date
So have refis really dried up? It's hard to know if people would have procrastinated or what.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
For the most part. It has been a steady decline but I haven't had any inquiries for a refi for a couple of weeks now. There will always be refi's even with rates going up (divorce, cash out needs, etc) but things will be much more purchase driven moving forward unless something drastically changes.
Capella
Footballguy
It’s insane. I could sell my house for almost double what we paid in 2019. Total lunacy.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
I'm in a odd situation. I can't even estimate what I could sell my house for, we do want to move for various reasons but there's zero on the market at nearly any price that works. It's like supply/demand is broken to some extent. I feel like I could get a room at an extended stay hotel cheaper than renting a 2bd house at this point too. Where all of a sudden do people get all this cash from? Cashing out their 401k?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I don't talk to cash clients ever so I can not say.
If you have the cash amd want to use that to strengthen offer but don't want to put all your cash into the home you can buy and do delayed financing which is purchase rates.
Capella
Footballguy
The word in Florida is the cash is coming from inheritance from grandparents/parents dying and/or people moving from the northeast or California and selling their places there at a premium and then paying cash here.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
Definitely, especially in South Florida. Some of the prices I am seeing in the area (Miami) I live are ridiculous.Chadstroma said:
I'm seeing crazy prices and even crazier rental options. A lot of South/Central American money pouring in. And it was a lot before. It's even crazier now.
culdeus
Footballguy
I mean we've been looking. The houses coming in are mostly absurd for the condition and price together. Just completely run down crap that prices in at the same range as newer.
It seems here more like there is a ceiling around 895k that people don't want to pierce so what you now get is people casting a shadow on 895 with garbage.
It seems here more like there is a ceiling around 895k that people don't want to pierce so what you now get is people casting a shadow on 895 with garbage.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Something has to give. There's no way that Americans can continue to pay these prices for houses. While I'm not saying the fundamentals support it, there has to be a significant downturn at some point in time.
belljr
Footballguy
My pop lived in Parrish in a 55 and older community. He paid 55 for his house 10years ago maybe. The lot rent kept going up, someone offered him 140 for his house and he decided to take it. He still has his house here so figured it would be cheaper to rent until things calm down. Plus my grandmother is 97 so he needs to be here more. I couldn't believe it
belljr
Footballguy
@Chadstroma I have a quick question. So on my house I have about 20years left if I don't pay extra principle. My wife will probably retire in the next 5-10 years. Let's say 10 for easy math. I'm not looking to cash out but does it make sense to refi back to a 20 (I'll have 10 left) year to lower our monthly bills since I'll still be working and we might not be able to "afford" our currently monthly payment
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Chadstroma
Footballguy
"At some point"... well, yes, there are always going to be ups and downs but based on the data there needs to be such a huge change in the supply and demand. Supply will take a lot of time to catch up. So, demand needs to significantly decrease. Rate increases will eventually put a break on things but you may see a spike come buying season as people try to hurry up and beat even higher rates and sellers decide to wait and sit on their 2% mortgage versus buy a new home with 4% mortgage.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I would need a lot more info to give a specific answer on what I would advise but generally the big consideration will be current rate vs the rate of the new rate, how much cash flow do you really need/want and how much does that provide, and what the other options look like as opposed. Were you thinking of doing the refi now or down the road when she retires?
belljr
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
That is an additional variable as if you need/want to do that as it will be rolling the dice. It rates go more back towards the "historic average" then you are looking at possibly increasing the rate 6%ish, which will eat into how much cash flow you free up. I mean, there is NO way to even guess at what rates will be doing in 10 years.
belljr
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Again, it is hard being blind without a whole consultation.
One thought is that if you really will not be able to afford it unless you make a change then I would favor being conservative and refi into a 30 yr now. Pay extra principal as you can for the next 10 years then in 10 years you can refi or not as needed or makes sense depending on whatever rates are at that time.
Otherwise, if you gamble then you could be in a position thay forces you to sell.
Again... that is just one thought based on not knowing a lot of variables.
matuski
Footballguy
Wouldn't it make more sense to add the 10 years now (refi to a 30) at the current lower rates and pay extra principle for the next 10?
Zegras11
Footballguy
not until the extreme shortage of homes is solved. Probably another 10 years for that
Capella
Footballguy
I agree with this but in my market (outside Tampa/Clearwater) I’ve seen realtors say they expect home values to go up 25% more this year. It’s already about 65% up since I bought in 2019.
I can see how current prices or close to it are sustainable but not those kind of price hikes. How can people afford it?
Zegras11
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I’ve seen 4 big boom bust housing cycles in my lifetime. Just like the stock market. Swings will come
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Inflation will offset a chunk of it. Which another reason to buy now if you haven't yet.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yup... before covid rates were higher than they are now and everyone was excited about how low rates were.
Rates are historically very low still. They are roughly what there were when I bought our house in 2012 and thought I would have my 3.25% 30 yr mortgage until the day I sold thr home or paid the last payment.
It is funny how subjective things are.
Foreign money is pouring in the condo market, where I've seen estimates of 60-70% on some buildings. Even if the prices go down 10 or 20%, they consider it a safer place to stash money, both legal and corrupt. On thenextmiami.com website, the number of buildings going up and approved is incredible in the Brickell, downtown, Wynwood and Edgewater area. Some are 1,000 foot super talls. When sales open, it doesn't take long for deposits to be completed. Downtown and Brickell will be like Manhattan, without mass transit.
Waterfront super luxury homes are being flipped. Condo, apartment, and commercial building sites are being flipped. Regarding rentals, the prices are becoming like SF & NY. There must be alot of remote workers, from the NE and California, cause Miami salaries are not there yet. Many buildings start at 3k for a 1br. New apartment buildings at the new prices are being completely leased in a few months in some cases. Locals living in nice older rental buildings on West Ave in Miami Beach are complaining about New Yorkers driving up the prices, 30% and more. I wonder how I can capitalize on this migration to Miami.
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
We built a 2-unit townhome in Coconut Grove and moved in right before the pandemic hit. It was a 50/50 partnership with someone we know so when completed, our partner got one unit for her 50% and we moved into our unit. I was amazed that the owner who end up purchasing the other side was able to get $6000/month rent (4 BR, 4 Bath, 2700 sq ft) back in early 2020. I was even more amazed when the considerably older, but updated townhome (3 BR, 2/5 Bath, 2000 sq feet)across the street was recently on the market for $9000/month!!!! WTF is happening?
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Capitalism. Maybe limited inventory, definitely lots of outsiders coming in with lots of money. I'm guessing some have great paying virtual jobs with out of state companies, and some sold their homes up north and can't buy due to limited inventory in homes for sale.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
A broker friend of mine shared a Loan Estimate from Rocket.
A pretty good rate but with almost 6 points on it for just short of $40K. I would laugh at it but the fact that they do that crap means that there are people that actually take that crap.
A pretty good rate but with almost 6 points on it for just short of $40K. I would laugh at it but the fact that they do that crap means that there are people that actually take that crap.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Rocket is evil.
But someone has to pay for all those commercials, endorsements, partnerships, sponsorships, etc.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
What’s the word in the mortgage market with 30 year rates going straight up and seemingly headed towards 5%?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Rates are getting into the 4's now. The 10 year is above 2% yield for the first time since 2019 (pre-COVID).
I have told my clients I talk to that rates have been gone up, are going up and expected to continue to go up.
The Fed is slowing it's buying of bonds and that is pushing things up for sure. LO's are freaking out mostly. Many retail lenders will be in very bad spots very quickly and many will not survive the next couple of years unless there is a big turnaround on rates like with Russia invading Ukraine or something.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
thanks. Kinda what I figured. Can’t imagine there are many refinances now and with housing inventory still low, must be a big drop in applications. Read an article about realtors leaving the business, was wondering if the number of lenders is likely to decrease as well.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
There are always refinances but just not nearly like there was just a couple of months ago.
Realtors are a dime a dozen, the entry point is so very low for them and there are so many that are part time etc. I just closed a loan last week that the realtor told me that that was the last house he was doing and was going into the medical field in some way.
LO's will drop too. Like anything, many jump in because of the 'easy money' and then when that dries up, they go do something else. Retail lenders will start laying off people for sure.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
It is interesting... a bunch of fellow brokers and myself have seen this...
As interest rates have significantly increased the sudden rush of people asking to refinance. I guess it is human nature to procrastinate and then freak out trying to do something at the last minute (or past the last minute).
As interest rates have significantly increased the sudden rush of people asking to refinance. I guess it is human nature to procrastinate and then freak out trying to do something at the last minute (or past the last minute).
Trying to time the bottom and now got caught - kind of like trying to time the stock market, rarely works out how you hope.
I know most people in this forum are buying SFHs, but I wonder about the impact of these new rules condos related to the Surfside condo collapse.
>>Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will no longer back mortgages in condo buildings facing unfinished “critical repairs” or material deficiencies such as mold or water intrusions, or that have deferred maintenance resulting in “advanced deterioration.” Ongoing routine maintenance or repairs won’t be an issue. But buildings that have not set aside sufficient funds to pay for needed critical work will be ineligible.
Lenders must ask condo associations to fill out a three-page questionnaire and scour condo board meeting minutes. The queries include when the building was last inspected, what the findings were, whether repairs are underway or completed, and whether there are other structural or mechanical issues the board is aware of. The form also asks about the status of any special assessments imposed to pay for repairs to determine if enough money is being collected.
Buyers in buildings undergoing significant structural or mechanical repairs, or where work has not been undertaken or completed, will be unable to obtain mortgages backed by Fannie or Freddie, until the associations can show repairs have been finished and approved by local authorities.
Real estate brokers are advising condo owners looking to sell their units to do due diligence early, by asking their associations about the status of any repairs or structural and maintenance problems. Some brokers are advising buyers to steer clear of condos needing or undergoing significant repairs because the work can take years, rendering the units ineligible for loans backed by the agencies.
Brokers and lenders also are advising condo associations to initiate inspections and any needed repairs now, even if they’re not legally required or the buildings are relatively new, to avoid problems with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac financing in the future. Said Farid Moussallem, a broker at Compass and board member at the Miami chapter of the Master Brokers Forum: “Now a condo has to be vetted and approved. It creates an urgency to address any issues a condo may have.”
Brokers and lenders are telling condo buyers and sellers to expect delays in the processing of mortgage applications, at least initially, as banks and associations gather the required information and figure out how to handle the new requirements.<<
Buying or selling a condo? 6 key takeaways from new US mortgage rules prompted by Surfside collapse
>>Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will no longer back mortgages in condo buildings facing unfinished “critical repairs” or material deficiencies such as mold or water intrusions, or that have deferred maintenance resulting in “advanced deterioration.” Ongoing routine maintenance or repairs won’t be an issue. But buildings that have not set aside sufficient funds to pay for needed critical work will be ineligible.
Lenders must ask condo associations to fill out a three-page questionnaire and scour condo board meeting minutes. The queries include when the building was last inspected, what the findings were, whether repairs are underway or completed, and whether there are other structural or mechanical issues the board is aware of. The form also asks about the status of any special assessments imposed to pay for repairs to determine if enough money is being collected.
Buyers in buildings undergoing significant structural or mechanical repairs, or where work has not been undertaken or completed, will be unable to obtain mortgages backed by Fannie or Freddie, until the associations can show repairs have been finished and approved by local authorities.
Real estate brokers are advising condo owners looking to sell their units to do due diligence early, by asking their associations about the status of any repairs or structural and maintenance problems. Some brokers are advising buyers to steer clear of condos needing or undergoing significant repairs because the work can take years, rendering the units ineligible for loans backed by the agencies.
Brokers and lenders also are advising condo associations to initiate inspections and any needed repairs now, even if they’re not legally required or the buildings are relatively new, to avoid problems with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac financing in the future. Said Farid Moussallem, a broker at Compass and board member at the Miami chapter of the Master Brokers Forum: “Now a condo has to be vetted and approved. It creates an urgency to address any issues a condo may have.”
Brokers and lenders are telling condo buyers and sellers to expect delays in the processing of mortgage applications, at least initially, as banks and associations gather the required information and figure out how to handle the new requirements.<<
Buying or selling a condo? 6 key takeaways from new US mortgage rules prompted by Surfside collapse
Wooderson
Fight The Power
I will be getting my purchase agreement tommorow on a new build. Monday I got a quote for 3.75% this includes a 15 month construction lock. I also get the opportunity to change it one time when Im with in 90 days of closing if I choose.
I see the 10 year treasury took a bit of a dip today. So my question is lock in now or hope against all hope that mortgage rates somehow go lower.
Thanks
I see the 10 year treasury took a bit of a dip today. So my question is lock in now or hope against all hope that mortgage rates somehow go lower.
Thanks
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Tough call. It is a toss. So much uncertainty tight now with Russia, inflation and the economy.
I guess if you think the economy will dive more than inflation will rise then take the bet.
For me... here is how I would look at it... 3.75%? Historically that is a GREAT rate. You can take that and be happy. Anything better is cake and eating it too.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Yup....and you can always re-fi if rates drop, but you can't if they rise.
@Chadstroma I would appreciate your thoughts on the UWMC results in the stock thread,
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Threw in my thoughts for ya bud.BassNBrew said:
-OZ-
Footballguy
seeing rumors that rates are above 4.5% now. Is that accurate @Chadstroma?
crazy to think this thread started with:
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yes. Even over 5% but pulled back. You can see the chart on MBS that shows how badly rates have gone in the wrong direction over the last couple of months. (Red is bad)seeing rumors that rates are above 4.5% now. Is that accurate @Chadstroma?
crazy to think this thread started with:
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs
-OZ-
Footballguy
glad I won’t be buying a home any time soon. Doubling rates (2.25 / 30 just over a year ago) is nuts.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Likely to go up further but there are some who predict rates to come back down and perhaps even to all time lows within the next year or two. They base that on the fact the economy is in a precarious position and will take a dive in the not too distant future. The X factor will be inflation. If inflation is persistent even with an economic downturn (stagflation) then lowering rates to get the economy going again (as they did all through COVID era) will not be a solution available as it will push inflation up further.-OZ- said:
glad I won’t be buying a home any time soon. Doubling rates (2.25 / 30 just over a year ago) is nuts.
The hard thing for homebuyers right now is not just interest rates going up but also valuations going up. It is a double whammy on clobbering buying power.
The horrible thing is that it isn't a choice of buying now or renting more as rents are increasing even more than the costs of buying a home.
At some point... something is going to have to give when it comes to it but the fact is right now it is all driven by basic supply and demand.
Zow
Footballguy
I saw 4.5% today (I'm not a mortgage broker or in real estate but I happened to review mortgage closing documents today for a work-related matter).-OZ- said:seeing rumors that rates are above 4.5% now. Is that accurate @Chadstroma?
crazy to think this thread started with:
Wooderson
Fight The Power
Update I ended up getting 3.35% on my 15 month lock. This happened March 10th. I talked with my guy today they are quoting 4.5%
I feel very fortunate.
