culdeus
Footballguy
It should cool things off but supply and demand will keep things from going down hill.
So have refis really dried up? It's hard to know if people would have procrastinated or what.
It should cool things off but supply and demand will keep things from going down hill.
For the most part. It has been a steady decline but I haven't had any inquiries for a refi for a couple of weeks now. There will always be refi's even with rates going up (divorce, cash out needs, etc) but things will be much more purchase driven moving forward unless something drastically changes.So have refis really dried up? It's hard to know if people would have procrastinated or what.
It’s insane. I could sell my house for almost double what we paid in 2019. Total lunacy.Tampa market is still insane. After being underwater many years ago, my home value is now up $100k in about a year and a half. Crazy.
I think mine's up over $200k since I bought in June.Tampa market is still insane. After being underwater many years ago, my home value is now up $100k in about a year and a half. Crazy.
I don't talk to cash clients ever so I can not say.I'm in a odd situation. I can't even estimate what I could sell my house for, we do want to move for various reasons but there's zero on the market at nearly any price that works. It's like supply/demand is broken to some extent. I feel like I could get a room at an extended stay hotel cheaper than renting a 2bd house at this point too. Where all of a sudden do people get all this cash from? Cashing out their 401k?
The word in Florida is the cash is coming from inheritance from grandparents/parents dying and/or people moving from the northeast or California and selling their places there at a premium and then paying cash here.I'm in a odd situation. I can't even estimate what I could sell my house for, we do want to move for various reasons but there's zero on the market at nearly any price that works. It's like supply/demand is broken to some extent. I feel like I could get a room at an extended stay hotel cheaper than renting a 2bd house at this point too. Where all of a sudden do people get all this cash from? Cashing out their 401k?
I heard some areas of Florida were seeing aot of foreign cash too.The word in Florida is the cash is coming from inheritance from grandparents/parents dying and/or people moving from the northeast or California and selling their places there at a premium and then paying cash here.
Definitely, especially in South Florida. Some of the prices I am seeing in the area (Miami) I live are ridiculous.Chadstroma said:I heard some areas of Florida were seeing alot of foreign cash too.
My pop lived in Parrish in a 55 and older community. He paid 55 for his house 10years ago maybe. The lot rent kept going up, someone offered him 140 for his house and he decided to take it. He still has his house here so figured it would be cheaper to rent until things calm down. Plus my grandmother is 97 so he needs to be here more. I couldn't believe itTampa market is still insane. After being underwater many years ago, my home value is now up $100k in about a year and a half. Crazy.
"At some point"... well, yes, there are always going to be ups and downs but based on the data there needs to be such a huge change in the supply and demand. Supply will take a lot of time to catch up. So, demand needs to significantly decrease. Rate increases will eventually put a break on things but you may see a spike come buying season as people try to hurry up and beat even higher rates and sellers decide to wait and sit on their 2% mortgage versus buy a new home with 4% mortgage.Something has to give. There's no way that Americans can continue to pay these prices for houses. While I'm not saying the fundamentals support it, there has to be a significant downturn at some point in time.
I would need a lot more info to give a specific answer on what I would advise but generally the big consideration will be current rate vs the rate of the new rate, how much cash flow do you really need/want and how much does that provide, and what the other options look like as opposed. Were you thinking of doing the refi now or down the road when she retires?@Chadstroma I have a quick question. So on my house I have about 20years left if I don't pay extra principle. My wife will probably retire in the next 5-10 years. Let's say 10 for easy math. I'm not looking to cash out but does it make sense to refi back to a 20 (I'll have 10 left) year to lower our monthly bills since I'll still be working and we might not be able to "afford" our currently monthly payment
If we do it it would be down the roadI would need a lot more info to give a specific answer on what I would advise but generally the big consideration will be current rate vs the rate of the new rate, how much cash flow do you really need/want and how much does that provide, and what the other options look like as opposed. Were you thinking of doing the refi now or down the road when she retires?
That is an additional variable as if you need/want to do that as it will be rolling the dice. It rates go more back towards the "historic average" then you are looking at possibly increasing the rate 6%ish, which will eat into how much cash flow you free up. I mean, there is NO way to even guess at what rates will be doing in 10 years.If we do it it would be down the road
Thanks. I was more asking if it is something to consider as an option in general.That is an additional variable as if you need/want to do that as it will be rolling the dice. It rates go more back towards the "historic average" then you are looking at possibly increasing the rate 6%ish, which will eat into how much cash flow you free up. I mean, there is NO way to even guess at what rates will be doing in 10 years.
Again, it is hard being blind without a whole consultation.Thanks. I was more asking if it is something to consider as an option in general.
If we do it it would be down the road
not until the extreme shortage of homes is solved. Probably another 10 years for thatSomething has to give. There's no way that Americans can continue to pay these prices for houses. While I'm not saying the fundamentals support it, there has to be a significant downturn at some point in time.
I agree with this but in my market (outside Tampa/Clearwater) I’ve seen realtors say they expect home values to go up 25% more this year. It’s already about 65% up since I bought in 2019.not until the extreme shortage of homes is solved. Probably another 10 years for that
There is a ton of cash out there. and rates are still very low.I agree with this but in my market (outside Tampa/Clearwater) I’ve seen realtors say they expect home values to go up 25% more this year. It’s already about 65% up since I bought in 2019.
I can see how current prices or close to it are sustainable but not those kind of price hikes. How can people afford it?
I’ve seen 4 big boom bust housing cycles in my lifetime. Just like the stock market. Swings will comeSomething has to give. There's no way that Americans can continue to pay these prices for houses. While I'm not saying the fundamentals support it, there has to be a significant downturn at some point in time.
Inflation will offset a chunk of it. Which another reason to buy now if you haven't yet.I agree with this but in my market (outside Tampa/Clearwater) I’ve seen realtors say they expect home values to go up 25% more this year. It’s already about 65% up since I bought in 2019.
I can see how current prices or close to it are sustainable but not those kind of price hikes. How can people afford it?
Yup... before covid rates were higher than they are now and everyone was excited about how low rates were.There is a ton of cash out there. and rates are still very low.
Foreign money is pouring in the condo market, where I've seen estimates of 60-70% on some buildings. Even if the prices go down 10 or 20%, they consider it a safer place to stash money, both legal and corrupt. On thenextmiami.com website, the number of buildings going up and approved is incredible in the Brickell, downtown, Wynwood and Edgewater area. Some are 1,000 foot super talls. When sales open, it doesn't take long for deposits to be completed. Downtown and Brickell will be like Manhattan, without mass transit.Definitely, especially in South Florida. Some of the prices I am seeing in the area (Miami) I live are ridiculous.
I'm seeing crazy prices and even crazier rental options. A lot of South/Central American money pouring in. And it was a lot before. It's even crazier now.
Foreign money is pouring in the condo market, where I've seen estimates of 60-70% on some buildings. Even if the prices go down 10 or 20%, they consider it a safer place to stash money, both legal and corrupt. On thenextmiami.com website, the number of buildings going up and approved is incredible in the Brickell, downtown, Wynwood and Edgewater area. Some are 1,000 foot super talls. When sales open, it doesn't take long for deposits to be completed. Downtown and Brickell will be like Manhattan, without mass transit.
Waterfront super luxury homes are being flipped. Condo, apartment, and commercial building sites are being flipped. Regarding rentals, the prices are becoming like SF & NY. There must be alot of remote workers, from the NE and California, cause Miami salaries are not there yet. Many buildings start at 3k for a 1br. New apartment buildings at the new prices are being completely leased in a few months in some cases. Locals living in nice older rental buildings on West Ave in Miami Beach are complaining about New Yorkers driving up the prices, 30% and more. I wonder how I can capitalize on this migration to Miami.
Capitalism. Maybe limited inventory, definitely lots of outsiders coming in with lots of money. I'm guessing some have great paying virtual jobs with out of state companies, and some sold their homes up north and can't buy due to limited inventory in homes for sale.We built a 2-unit townhome in Coconut Grove and moved in right before the pandemic hit. It was a 50/50 partnership with someone we know so when completed, our partner got one unit for her 50% and we moved into our unit. I was amazed that the owner who end up purchasing the other side was able to get $6000/month rent (4 BR, 4 Bath, 2700 sq ft) back in early 2020. I was even more amazed when the considerably older, but updated townhome (3 BR, 2/5 Bath, 2000 sq feet)across the street was recently on the market for $9000/month!!!! WTF is happening?
six points, lmao.A broker friend of mine shared a Loan Estimate from Rocket.
A pretty good rate but with almost 6 points on it for just short of $40K. I would laugh at it but the fact that they do that crap means that there are people that actually take that crap.
Rocket is evil.six points, lmao.
Rates are getting into the 4's now. The 10 year is above 2% yield for the first time since 2019 (pre-COVID).What’s the word in the mortgage market with 30 year rates going straight up and seemingly headed towards 5%?
thanks. Kinda what I figured. Can’t imagine there are many refinances now and with housing inventory still low, must be a big drop in applications. Read an article about realtors leaving the business, was wondering if the number of lenders is likely to decrease as well.Rates are getting into the 4's now. The 10 year is above 2% yield for the first time since 2019 (pre-COVID).
I have told my clients I talk to that rates have been gone up, are going up and expected to continue to go up.
The Fed is slowing it's buying of bonds and that is pushing things up for sure. LO's are freaking out mostly. Many retail lenders will be in very bad spots very quickly and many will not survive the next couple of years unless there is a big turnaround on rates like with Russia invading Ukraine or something.
There are always refinances but just not nearly like there was just a couple of months ago.thanks. Kinda what I figured. Can’t imagine there are many refinances now and with housing inventory still low, must be a big drop in applications. Read an article about realtors leaving the business, was wondering if the number of lenders is likely to decrease as well.
Trying to time the bottom and now got caught - kind of like trying to time the stock market, rarely works out how you hope.It is interesting... a bunch of fellow brokers and myself have seen this...
As interest rates have significantly increased the sudden rush of people asking to refinance. I guess it is human nature to procrastinate and then freak out trying to do something at the last minute (or past the last minute).
Tough call. It is a toss. So much uncertainty tight now with Russia, inflation and the economy.I will be getting my purchase agreement tommorow on a new build. Monday I got a quote for 3.75% this includes a 15 month construction lock. I also get the opportunity to change it one time when Im with in 90 days of closing if I choose.
I see the 10 year treasury took a bit of a dip today. So my question is lock in now or hope against all hope that mortgage rates somehow go lower.
Thanks
Tough call. It is a toss. So much uncertainty tight now with Russia, inflation and the economy.
I guess if you think the economy will dive more than inflation will rise then take the bet.
For me... here is how I would look at it... 3.75%? Historically that is a GREAT rate. You can take that and be happy. Anything better is cake and eating it too.
Threw in my thoughts for ya bud.BassNBrew said:Yup....and you can always re-fi if rates drop, but you can't if they rise.
@Chadstroma I would appreciate your thoughts on the UWMC results in the stock thread,
seeing rumors that rates are above 4.5% now. Is that accurate @Chadstroma?Tough call. It is a toss. So much uncertainty tight now with Russia, inflation and the economy.
I guess if you think the economy will dive more than inflation will rise then take the bet.
For me... here is how I would look at it... 3.75%? Historically that is a GREAT rate. You can take that and be happy. Anything better is cake and eating it too.
I can currently refinance for 5.5% from my current 6.5%. Will they continue to drop, go up or stay steady? It just dropped .125% from yesterdays rate.
Yes. Even over 5% but pulled back. You can see the chart on MBS that shows how badly rates have gone in the wrong direction over the last couple of months. (Red is bad)seeing rumors that rates are above 4.5% now. Is that accurate @Chadstroma?
crazy to think this thread started with:
Yes. Even over 5% but pulled back. You can see the chart on MBS that shows how badly rates have gone in the wrong direction over the last couple of months. (Red is bad)
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs
Likely to go up further but there are some who predict rates to come back down and perhaps even to all time lows within the next year or two. They base that on the fact the economy is in a precarious position and will take a dive in the not too distant future. The X factor will be inflation. If inflation is persistent even with an economic downturn (stagflation) then lowering rates to get the economy going again (as they did all through COVID era) will not be a solution available as it will push inflation up further.-OZ- said:
glad I won’t be buying a home any time soon. Doubling rates (2.25 / 30 just over a year ago) is nuts.
I saw 4.5% today (I'm not a mortgage broker or in real estate but I happened to review mortgage closing documents today for a work-related matter).-OZ- said:seeing rumors that rates are above 4.5% now. Is that accurate @Chadstroma?
crazy to think this thread started with:
Update I ended up getting 3.35% on my 15 month lock. This happened March 10th. I talked with my guy today they are quoting 4.5%I will be getting my purchase agreement tommorow on a new build. Monday I got a quote for 3.75% this includes a 15 month construction lock. I also get the opportunity to change it one time when Im with in 90 days of closing if I choose.
I see the 10 year treasury took a bit of a dip today. So my question is lock in now or hope against all hope that mortgage rates somehow go lower.
Thanks