Most underrated / overrated players by ADP (1 Viewer)

[Ryan99]

So, I came up with a method for ranking players overall based on stat projections, and compared that to their ADP. I don't want to get into the methodology (although I can if anyone cares), I just wanted to post some results and see what the FBG community thinks. This is based on 6 points for all TDs. First, I should say that most of my rankings are in general agreement with ADP, which makes me feel good that my methodology isn't completely crap. Since this is comparing against ADP, some (a lot?) of these will be obvious, so mainly I'm looking for comments on the ones that aren't. Also, there are some guys that could produce that basically aren't drafted, or are at least not often listed in ADP; these players have been excluded.

Underrated (most underrated at top)

Evan Royster (pre Alfred Morris projections, possibly irrelevant)

Ronnie Hillman

Pierre Thomas

Shonn Greene

Donald Brown

Kevin Smith

Jonathan Stewart

Daniel Thomas

Josh Freeman

Felix Jones

The highest ranked player here is Greene. I have him at 32, ADP has him at 66 (!).

Overrated (most overrated at top)

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Justin Blackmon

Vernon Davis

Larry Fitzgerald

Brandon Marshall

Jay Cutler

Aaron Hernandez

Rob Gronkowski

AJ Green

Victor Cruz

Greg Jennings

So basically people are drafting the top WRs too early and letting the RB3 caliber guys stay on the board too long. On my board I have Calvin Johnson at 9, Graham/Gronk at 18/19, L Fitz at 25 and the other tier 2 WRs in the late 20s, early 30s. ADP has Calvin at 6, Fitz at 16 and the tier two guys at early to mid 20s.

 

[BassNBrew]

fyi - Williams is spelled Williams, not Stewart.

 

[chiefs2929]

hilarious

 

[BigSteelThrill]

ewwwwwwwwww

 

[Ryan99]

fyi - Williams is spelled Williams, not Stewart.

I agree that Williams has been underrated, but Stewart's ADP is absolutely tanking right now. The Carolina backfield was underrated before the Stewart injury; I think people are overreacting.Also, to everyone who's posted so far, good job on the constructive comments. Very helpful.

 

[Ilov80s]

Without much analysis, it just feels like you threw some names at dartboards.

 

[ImTheScientist]

 

[Rovers]

I don't know what data base you used for projected stats, but yes, people are drafting WR's and for good reason. Top WR's are on the filed for just about every snap. RB's are becoming specialists and part time players. Pierre Thomas is an example as are most of the RB's you listed, with a few exceptions. Greene is ranked low because the Jets offensive line can't run block and Greene is not a big play RB. Josh Freeman? Really? After how bad he was last year?

 

[whodeywhodey]

I agree about Greene. He is about as unsexy as it gets. RB18 last year with LT2 and he has no one behind him. He's a cowbell back and will get numbers based on quantity and opportunity alone.

You can have good fantasy players on bad teams after all.

 

[zoonation]

fyi - Williams is spelled Williams, not Stewart.

I agree that Williams has been underrated, but Stewart's ADP is absolutely tanking right now. The Carolina backfield was underrated before the Stewart injury; I think people are overreacting.Also, to everyone who's posted so far, good job on the constructive comments. Very helpful.

you failed to articulate a coherent argument for your crazy list and then blame others for mocking you?at this stage analysis is king. no one cares about your unique individual set of projections. HTH.

 

[Ilov80s]

fyi - Williams is spelled Williams, not Stewart.

I agree that Williams has been underrated, but Stewart's ADP is absolutely tanking right now. The Carolina backfield was underrated before the Stewart injury; I think people are overreacting.Also, to everyone who's posted so far, good job on the constructive comments. Very helpful.

you failed to articulate a coherent argument for your crazy list and then blame others for mocking you?at this stage analysis is king. no one cares about your unique individual set of projections. HTH.

Also, it doubt your rankings need it's own thread. I have to imagine there are quite a few threads here about overrated/underrated players.

 

[Ryan99]

you failed to articulate a coherent argument for your crazy list and then blame others for mocking you?

at this stage analysis is king. no one cares about your unique individual set of projections.

HTH.

So I guess the fact that these are not based on my own projections, and are in fact based on averaged 'expert' rankings is irrelevant? No one cares about your zero content post.

Also, it doubt your rankings need it's own thread. I have to imagine there are quite a few threads here about overrated/underrated players.

Cool story brah. If you actually read the thread, or even just the title, you'd know that these aren't rankings. There are quite a few threads on overrated / underrated ... if people only started completely unique thread concepts the forum would have about 10 total threads.

 

[Crazy Tony]

I think the immediate or known upside for a lot of your underrated players is the problem with drafting them.

i think JStew is the best of them for now and some of the guys might be pretty good for dynasty.

your Overrated players lists looks more attractive to me than anything.

I think it all depends on scoring models.

I don't think Calvin Johnson is overrated as the best WR in the league. He's a freak and talented and has a QB that will throw to him.

I think people are getting more desperate to take the top-tier guys in their leagues.

I also think Julio Jones will do well. He's in a better passing system and it's common knowledge that he'll get more targets than roddy white this season according to the team. So whether it's redraft or dynasty people are looking to him to produce...but the team isn't terrible like in other situations. Juliou could be more consistent than other players. Even if they're wrong he'll be decent...odds are in his favor for success at least .

You can claim that some of the top 20 players are in WR/QB are overrated but I think they're necessary.

Especially in Dynasty leagues....would you rather have Julio, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson for the enxt 7-10yrs or a Top RB for mabye 3-5?

Multiply that X 3-4 WRS spots. vs 2 RB spots.....if there's one thing certain there's lots of injury at RB spot and like another post mentioned... there's a lot of RBBCs splitting carries and becoming specialists.

The 400 rush attempt RB is gone.... Larry Johnson i 2006 was the last one.

2011 MJD 343

2010 Turner 334

2009 THomas Jones332, CJ2k 358

Turner had 377 in 2008...

2009 CJ2k, Thomas Jones,

2008 Turner 377

Face it, it's becoming a passing league and you want these elite talent top tier players. This is forcing some guys to reach for them.

If there's a run on a skill set sometimes you need to hurry up and get yours before they're gone because there's plenty of RB left over.

Just my thoughts.

 

[zoonation]

you failed to articulate a coherent argument for your crazy list and then blame others for mocking you?

at this stage analysis is king. no one cares about your unique individual set of projections.

HTH.

So I guess the fact that these are not based on my own projections, and are in fact based on averaged 'expert' rankings is irrelevant? No one cares about your zero content post.

Also, it doubt your rankings need it's own thread. I have to imagine there are quite a few threads here about overrated/underrated players.

Cool story brah. If you actually read the thread, or even just the title, you'd know that these aren't rankings. There are quite a few threads on overrated / underrated ... if people only started completely unique thread concepts the forum would have about 10 total threads.

if they're not based on your own projections, how are you determining that they are under or over valued?

help me out. there was no analysis at all in your post.

Also, try to tone down the tool factor, noob.

 

[Ilov80s]

you failed to articulate a coherent argument for your crazy list and then blame others for mocking you?

at this stage analysis is king. no one cares about your unique individual set of projections.

HTH.

So I guess the fact that these are not based on my own projections, and are in fact based on averaged 'expert' rankings is irrelevant? No one cares about your zero content post.

Also, it doubt your rankings need it's own thread. I have to imagine there are quite a few threads here about overrated/underrated players.

Cool story brah. If you actually read the thread, or even just the title, you'd know that these aren't rankings. There are quite a few threads on overrated / underrated ... if people only started completely unique thread concepts the forum would have about 10 total threads.

I wouldn't even have posted that if you hadn't already thanked people for their constructive criticism. Also, I did read the thread. I learned nothing. I would rather have 10 high quality threads than 5000 useless ones.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

 

[Marauder]

Here's the way I see it. When I look at the underrated list I see a lot of "safe" players with limited upside. If your goal is to finish with an above average team these are probably good picks but it's hard to imagine a lot of championship teams will have Shonn Greene as their RB2. When I look at the overrated list I see a lot of high upside "play to win" players.

Projections are a useful tool but, by their very nature, are always conservative. When drafting you also need to factor in each players ceiling, which is not accurately reflected in projections.

 

[Ilov80s]

Here's the way I see it. When I look at the underrated list I see a lot of "safe" players with limited upside. If your goal is to finish with an above average team these are probably good picks but it's hard to imagine a lot of championship teams will have Shonn Greene as their RB2. When I look at the overrated list I see a lot of high upside "play to win" players.Projections are a useful tool but, by their very nature, are always conservative. When drafting you also need to factor in each players ceiling, which is not accurately reflected in projections.

There are a lot of fantasy champions with safe conservative players. They offer a good counterbalance to your risky boom-bust players.

 

[whodeywhodey]

I had the Chicago RB as my RB2 last year in week 16 in the Championship. I don't even remember his name and he was cut this year but the fact was that he produced down the stretch. The point is that you can win with players that flat out produce and I don't try to guess who is going to have a breakout year in the first quarter of my draft. So I disagree with you and like players like Greene because as he slides to the 5th or 6th round I see value. I want players who will produce and are going to be on the field as much as possible. I also tend to take the known over the unknown in the first half dozen rounds. This has served me well and I am not as in awe of the potential of potential --- if you know what I mean.

 

[zoonation]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

what are you talking about? this isn't about his projections...can't you read?except of course for the fact that he says it is about his projections in the first line of the OP. Then freaked out on a bunch of people for calling him out on it all.

 

[Ryan99]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

what are you talking about? this isn't about his projections...can't you read?except of course for the fact that he says it is about his projections in the first line of the OP. Then freaked out on a bunch of people for calling him out on it all.

In fact, you cannot read. At no time did I say it was based on 'my' projections.I'm pretty sure at this point that I'm being trolled by a 12 year old.

 

[zoonation]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

what are you talking about? this isn't about his projections...can't you read?except of course for the fact that he says it is about his projections in the first line of the OP. Then freaked out on a bunch of people for calling him out on it all.

In fact, you cannot read. At no time did I say it was based on 'my' projections.I'm pretty sure at this point that I'm being trolled by a 12 year old.

I'm sorry you are having trouble articulating anything resembling a coherent thought. Don't get pissy about it. Again, if you are not using your own projections (or adopting projections for the purpose of whatever the hell your "analysis" is) how are you making the determination that players are over or under valued at their current ADP?At some point you need to actually start saying something meaningful. it is your thread after all.

 

[Ryan99]

Here's the way I see it. When I look at the underrated list I see a lot of "safe" players with limited upside. If your goal is to finish with an above average team these are probably good picks but it's hard to imagine a lot of championship teams will have Shonn Greene as their RB2. When I look at the overrated list I see a lot of high upside "play to win" players.Projections are a useful tool but, by their very nature, are always conservative. When drafting you also need to factor in each players ceiling, which is not accurately reflected in projections.

Agreed. The 'safe' players are nice as your starters though, which is why I singled out Greene. Something I found interesting though was that many of the overrated players were not boom or bust types, but high WRs that many people consider safe. I think WRs are being drafted too early ... their VAR is much lower than for the RB2s but people are still paying 2nd and 3rd round price for them. Its more understandable in a 3WR league, but not in a 2WR league, imo.Based on numbers, both projections and historic numbers, if you're running 2 WR, 2 RB and a flex, the flex should almost always be a RB. So these leagues are effectively 3 RB leagues, which increases the value of the RB2s compared to what you might think otherwise.

 

[Ilov80s]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

what are you talking about? this isn't about his projections...can't you read?except of course for the fact that he says it is about his projections in the first line of the OP. Then freaked out on a bunch of people for calling him out on it all.

In fact, you cannot read. At no time did I say it was based on 'my' projections.I'm pretty sure at this point that I'm being trolled by a 12 year old.

So, I came up with a method for ranking players overall based on stat projections, and compared that to their ADP. I don't want to get into the methodology (although I can if anyone cares), I just wanted to post some results and see what the FBG community thinks. This is based on 6 points for all TDs. First, I should say that most of my rankings are in general agreement with ADP, which makes me feel good that my methodology isn't completely crap. Since this is comparing against ADP, some (a lot?) of these will be obvious, so mainly I'm looking for comments on the ones that aren't. Also, there are some guys that could produce that basically aren't drafted, or are at least not often listed in ADP; these players have been excluded.

So you ranked the players based on projections from somewhere else? Then how are they "your" rankings?

The highest ranked player here is Greene. I have him at 32, ADP has him at 66 (!).

Why do you have him at 32? If they aren't your projections, then at least tell us who are taking them from.

 

[Marauder]

Here's the way I see it. When I look at the underrated list I see a lot of "safe" players with limited upside. If your goal is to finish with an above average team these are probably good picks but it's hard to imagine a lot of championship teams will have Shonn Greene as their RB2. When I look at the overrated list I see a lot of high upside "play to win" players.Projections are a useful tool but, by their very nature, are always conservative. When drafting you also need to factor in each players ceiling, which is not accurately reflected in projections.

Agreed. The 'safe' players are nice as your starters though, which is why I singled out Greene. Something I found interesting though was that many of the overrated players were not boom or bust types, but high WRs that many people consider safe. I think WRs are being drafted too early ... their VAR is much lower than for the RB2s but people are still paying 2nd and 3rd round price for them. Its more understandable in a 3WR league, but not in a 2WR league, imo.Based on numbers, both projections and historic numbers, if you're running 2 WR, 2 RB and a flex, the flex should almost always be a RB. So these leagues are effectively 3 RB leagues, which increases the value of the RB2s compared to what you might think otherwise.

I didn't use the term "boom or bust", I used the term "high upside". There is a difference between the two terms and it is key to my point about the limitations of drafting purely off projections. Ryan Williams is a boom or bust player. Julio Jones, AJ Green and Brandon Marshall are high upside players who also have a high floor. These are the type of players who should go and are going higher than their projected numbers would dictate. Ask yourself this: Which do you want? A safe player with limited upside or a safe player with high upside?

 

[whodeywhodey]

Here's the way I see it. When I look at the underrated list I see a lot of "safe" players with limited upside. If your goal is to finish with an above average team these are probably good picks but it's hard to imagine a lot of championship teams will have Shonn Greene as their RB2. When I look at the overrated list I see a lot of high upside "play to win" players.Projections are a useful tool but, by their very nature, are always conservative. When drafting you also need to factor in each players ceiling, which is not accurately reflected in projections.

Agreed. The 'safe' players are nice as your starters though, which is why I singled out Greene. Something I found interesting though was that many of the overrated players were not boom or bust types, but high WRs that many people consider safe. I think WRs are being drafted too early ... their VAR is much lower than for the RB2s but people are still paying 2nd and 3rd round price for them. Its more understandable in a 3WR league, but not in a 2WR league, imo.Based on numbers, both projections and historic numbers, if you're running 2 WR, 2 RB and a flex, the flex should almost always be a RB. So these leagues are effectively 3 RB leagues, which increases the value of the RB2s compared to what you might think otherwise.

I didn't use the term "boom or bust", I used the term "high upside". There is a difference between the two terms and it is key to my point about the limitations of drafting purely off projections. Ryan Williams is a boom or bust player. Julio Jones, AJ Green and Brandon Marshall are high upside players who also have a high floor. These are the type of players who should go and are going higher than their projected numbers would dictate. Ask yourself this: Which do you want? A safe player with limited upside or a safe player with high upside?

Those players are going in the third round.Greene is in the 6th.Not exactly apples to apples. Of course I would rather have the 3rd round pick over the 6th round pick.

 

[joffer]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

I know I generate rankings by randomly pulling names out of a hat

 

[Ilov80s]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

I know I generate rankings by randomly pulling names out of a hat

Yeah, but what size is the hat?

 

[Ryan99]

So you ranked the players based on projections from somewhere else? Then how are they "your" rankings? Why do you have him at 32? If they aren't your projections, then at least tell us who are taking them from.

The rankings are overall rankings. The projections are averaged from a bunch of 'expert' rankings. I don't think listing all the experts is particularly informative, but I suppose if you want to know all of them I can dig it up. The method of getting the rankings from the projections was a simple VAR type ranking (I don't think the details are particularly illuminating). So, yes, they are my rankings based on other peoples' projections.Ranking and projecting players is not the same thing. You can get positional rankings directly from projections (and a scoring system), but not overall rankings. You need some method of comparing players across positions. And ultimately, its the overall rankings which are directly useful in a fantasy draft.

 

[Marauder]

Here's the way I see it. When I look at the underrated list I see a lot of "safe" players with limited upside. If your goal is to finish with an above average team these are probably good picks but it's hard to imagine a lot of championship teams will have Shonn Greene as their RB2. When I look at the overrated list I see a lot of high upside "play to win" players.Projections are a useful tool but, by their very nature, are always conservative. When drafting you also need to factor in each players ceiling, which is not accurately reflected in projections.

Agreed. The 'safe' players are nice as your starters though, which is why I singled out Greene. Something I found interesting though was that many of the overrated players were not boom or bust types, but high WRs that many people consider safe. I think WRs are being drafted too early ... their VAR is much lower than for the RB2s but people are still paying 2nd and 3rd round price for them. Its more understandable in a 3WR league, but not in a 2WR league, imo.Based on numbers, both projections and historic numbers, if you're running 2 WR, 2 RB and a flex, the flex should almost always be a RB. So these leagues are effectively 3 RB leagues, which increases the value of the RB2s compared to what you might think otherwise.

I didn't use the term "boom or bust", I used the term "high upside". There is a difference between the two terms and it is key to my point about the limitations of drafting purely off projections. Ryan Williams is a boom or bust player. Julio Jones, AJ Green and Brandon Marshall are high upside players who also have a high floor. These are the type of players who should go and are going higher than their projected numbers would dictate. Ask yourself this: Which do you want? A safe player with limited upside or a safe player with high upside?

Those players are going in the third round.Greene is in the 6th.Not exactly apples to apples. Of course I would rather have the 3rd round pick over the 6th round pick.

That's the whole point. The OP said "The highest ranked player here is Greene. I have him at 32, ADP has him at 66". I'm explaining to him why Greene is, correctly, going at 66 rather than 32. I'm just using examples from his original post.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Here's the way I see it. When I look at the underrated list I see a lot of "safe" players with limited upside. If your goal is to finish with an above average team these are probably good picks but it's hard to imagine a lot of championship teams will have Shonn Greene as their RB2. When I look at the overrated list I see a lot of high upside "play to win" players.Projections are a useful tool but, by their very nature, are always conservative. When drafting you also need to factor in each players ceiling, which is not accurately reflected in projections.

Agreed. The 'safe' players are nice as your starters though, which is why I singled out Greene. Something I found interesting though was that many of the overrated players were not boom or bust types, but high WRs that many people consider safe. I think WRs are being drafted too early ... their VAR is much lower than for the RB2s but people are still paying 2nd and 3rd round price for them. Its more understandable in a 3WR league, but not in a 2WR league, imo.Based on numbers, both projections and historic numbers, if you're running 2 WR, 2 RB and a flex, the flex should almost always be a RB. So these leagues are effectively 3 RB leagues, which increases the value of the RB2s compared to what you might think otherwise.

I didn't use the term "boom or bust", I used the term "high upside". There is a difference between the two terms and it is key to my point about the limitations of drafting purely off projections. Ryan Williams is a boom or bust player. Julio Jones, AJ Green and Brandon Marshall are high upside players who also have a high floor. These are the type of players who should go and are going higher than their projected numbers would dictate. Ask yourself this: Which do you want? A safe player with limited upside or a safe player with high upside?

Those players are going in the third round.Greene is in the 6th.Not exactly apples to apples. Of course I would rather have the 3rd round pick over the 6th round pick.

That's the whole point. The OP said "The highest ranked player here is Greene. I have him at 32, ADP has him at 66". I'm explaining to him why Greene is, correctly, going at 66 rather than 32. I'm just using examples from his original post.

Or you can draft him in the 5th round (1 round "early") and safely draft him ahead of his ADP but behind where you have him ranked at 32.

 

[Ryan99]

I didn't use the term "boom or bust", I used the term "high upside". There is a difference between the two terms and it is key to my point about the limitations of drafting purely off projections. Ryan Williams is a boom or bust player. Julio Jones, AJ Green and Brandon Marshall are high upside players who also have a high floor. These are the type of players who should go and are going higher than their projected numbers would dictate. Ask yourself this: Which do you want? A safe player with limited upside or a safe player with high upside?

My bad on the 'boom or bust'. While I don't know the detailed methodology behind the 'experts' rankings, I don't think they just project players' floors. Typically the variance is factored in somehow, so the projections include not only if a guy has a 'high floor', but also if he has a 'high ceiling' or not. Now, I don't mind drafting a player with a low mean performance but high variance late as a backup, but I don't want that type of guy as a starter. So when you say that these 2nd tier receivers have high floors and high upside (compared to their projections of course), I just don't buy it. If that were the case, the projections would be higher to reflect that. Now, if you simply don't agree with the 'consensus' expert projections for these players, then that's a different story. But, in general, I think the experts' projections are a good starting point, and my point is that the high WRs are overrated based on these projections and probably shouldn't be going in the 2nd round (other than Calvin).

 

[Ryan99]

I didn't use the term "boom or bust", I used the term "high upside". There is a difference between the two terms and it is key to my point about the limitations of drafting purely off projections. Ryan Williams is a boom or bust player. Julio Jones, AJ Green and Brandon Marshall are high upside players who also have a high floor. These are the type of players who should go and are going higher than their projected numbers would dictate. Ask yourself this: Which do you want? A safe player with limited upside or a safe player with high upside?

That's the whole point. The OP said "The highest ranked player here is Greene. I have him at 32, ADP has him at 66". I'm explaining to him why Greene is, correctly, going at 66 rather than 32. I'm just using examples from his original post.

Greene might not have a high ceiling, but he has a high floor imo. He's going to get his touches. I'm not saying he would be a good buy at 32 (I think he would be an average buy there since that's where I have him), but considering he routinely falls into the 6th round I'm saying he's undervalued. Many experts' predict low RB2 numbers for Greene ... in a normal league that's worth a much higher pick than the middle of the 6th round.

 

[whodeywhodey]

I didn't use the term "boom or bust", I used the term "high upside". There is a difference between the two terms and it is key to my point about the limitations of drafting purely off projections. Ryan Williams is a boom or bust player. Julio Jones, AJ Green and Brandon Marshall are high upside players who also have a high floor. These are the type of players who should go and are going higher than their projected numbers would dictate. Ask yourself this: Which do you want? A safe player with limited upside or a safe player with high upside?

That's the whole point. The OP said "The highest ranked player here is Greene. I have him at 32, ADP has him at 66". I'm explaining to him why Greene is, correctly, going at 66 rather than 32. I'm just using examples from his original post.

Greene might not have a high ceiling, but he has a high floor imo. He's going to get his touches. I'm not saying he would be a good buy at 32 (I think he would be an average buy there since that's where I have him), but considering he routinely falls into the 6th round I'm saying he's undervalued. Many experts' predict low RB2 numbers for Greene ... in a normal league that's worth a much higher pick than the middle of the 6th round.

Totally agree. People are enamored with the guy that might be the next "big thing". I think he will be solid for where he is drafted. I agree that a RB18 (what he was last year) is worth much more than 5th/6th round. I think the Jets will stink but there is no LT2 this year. So in the end I think Greene should perform at least as well as last year.

 

[Captain Hook]

The first post is a load of crap

Every subsequent you time to defend it/eplain it/dance around the criticisms is dumbing down the entire thread.

Move on man

 

[Goat Herders]

Greene is an interesting case. He reminds me of beanie last year. We knew he would get touches. The whole idea of his fantasy success hinged on Tds. Same with Greene - he will get touches. Fewer than 6 Tds and you'll regret the pick. More than 9 and he's a steal. Donald brown is the same way IMO.

 

[Marauder]

I didn't use the term "boom or bust", I used the term "high upside". There is a difference between the two terms and it is key to my point about the limitations of drafting purely off projections.

Ryan Williams is a boom or bust player. Julio Jones, AJ Green and Brandon Marshall are high upside players who also have a high floor. These are the type of players who should go and are going higher than their projected numbers would dictate. Ask yourself this: Which do you want? A safe player with limited upside or a safe player with high upside?

My bad on the 'boom or bust'. While I don't know the detailed methodology behind the 'experts' rankings, I don't think they just project players' floors. Typically the variance is factored in somehow, so the projections include not only if a guy has a 'high floor', but also if he has a 'high ceiling' or not. Now, I don't mind drafting a player with a low mean performance but high variance late as a backup, but I don't want that type of guy as a starter. So when you say that these 2nd tier receivers have high floors and high upside (compared to their projections of course), I just don't buy it. If that were the case, the projections would be higher to reflect that. Now, if you simply don't agree with the 'consensus' expert projections for these players, then that's a different story. But, in general, I think the experts' projections are a good starting point, and my point is that the high WRs are overrated based on these projections and probably shouldn't be going in the 2nd round (other than Calvin).

You are mixing two terms here that are not synonymous. In your OP you referred to projections, implying stat projections. These are what I am saying are by nature conservative, especially for the highest ranked players at each position (rankings are a different animal, and should not necessarily align exactly with projections). For example, I do my own projections and I don't have any QB projected for more than 40 TD's but I would be willing to bet that at least one and probably more than one will throw for more than 40 TD's. When you actually sit down and do your own projections you it becomes obvious why this is true. You can't project outlyers but we intuitively know that every year there are going to be some, and although it is hard to predict exactly which players will be the outlyers we can usually predict pretty well what group of players the outlyers will come from. Stat projections do not accurately reflect floor and ceiling because of this outlyer issue. When I turn my projections into rankings I do factor these in. That's why I have Shonn Greene ranked lower than my stat projections show and why I have Julio Jones ranked higher than my stat projections show. If you want to take him in the 5th rather than the 6th that's fine. I probably will too but that is not what you seemed to be saying in your OP. Maybe that's why this thread has become such a

Anyway, I think I've made my point clear by now but nobody else seems to get it so I'm done with this thread.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Greene is an interesting case. He reminds me of beanie last year. We knew he would get touches. The whole idea of his fantasy success hinged on Tds. Same with Greene - he will get touches. Fewer than 6 Tds and you'll regret the pick. More than 9 and he's a steal. Donald brown is the same way IMO.

So about 1.5 points per game difference makes you regret the pick?

 

[Goat Herders]

Greene is an interesting case. He reminds me of beanie last year. We knew he would get touches. The whole idea of his fantasy success hinged on Tds. Same with Greene - he will get touches. Fewer than 6 Tds and you'll regret the pick. More than 9 and he's a steal. Donald brown is the same way IMO.

So about 1.5 points per game difference makes you regret the pick?

Loosely speaking, 6 Tds vs 10 Tds is the difference between a decent pick and a home run at rb3/flex. In other words, findinf a 10 td back after the 5th round is a great find. So yeah.

 

[zoonation]

I get what the OP means now. He just did a poor job of articulating it in the OP. The attitude didn't help either.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

I know I generate rankings by randomly pulling names out of a hat

Generally speaking, projections attempt to predict the future at WAY too specific of a degree. The only way for them to have value is to make them broader, which would then result in a tonne of overlap making any ranking system based on it pointless.

 

[Ryan99]

You are mixing two terms here that are not synonymous. In your OP you referred to projections, implying stat projections. These are what I am saying are by nature conservative, especially for the highest ranked players at each position (rankings are a different animal, and should not necessarily align exactly with projections). For example, I do my own projections and I don't have any QB projected for more than 40 TD's but I would be willing to bet that at least one and probably more than one will throw for more than 40 TD's. When you actually sit down and do your own projections you it becomes obvious why this is true. You can't project outlyers but we intuitively know that every year there are going to be some, and although it is hard to predict exactly which players will be the outlyers we can usually predict pretty well what group of players the outlyers will come from. Stat projections do not accurately reflect floor and ceiling because of this outlyer issue. When I turn my projections into rankings I do factor these in. That's why I have Shonn Greene ranked lower than my stat projections show and why I have Julio Jones ranked higher than my stat projections show. If you want to take him in the 5th rather than the 6th that's fine. I probably will too but that is not what you seemed to be saying in your OP. Maybe that's why this thread has become such a Anyway, I think I've made my point clear by now but nobody else seems to get it so I'm done with this thread.

I don't know why you assume stat projections are conservative. If I was making my own projections and I had, for instance, a probability distribution for a stat for a specific player, I would use the mean. If you take a probability distribution and 'fatten the tail' i.e. increase the likelihood of having a high result or lengthen the tail i.e. increase the 'ceiling' of the player, this increases the mean. If your personal projections are more of a floor, than your argument makes sense, but I don't think that's how most people make their projections.I don't want to turn this into a statistics discussion, but here goes. If a player has a high floor and a high ceiling, the probability distribution will have a short tail on the low end and a long tail on the high end. The mean of this distribution will lie above the median, meaning that if you're using the mean for your published projections (which I think is a safe assumption although I don't know for sure), than it means that there is a larger chance of the guy under-performing his projection than over-performing it (although if he does over-perform it will tend to be by a larger amount than the under-perform average). This is definitely not what I want from a starter, and it doesn't make sense to me to raise this guy's draft ranking above his ranking based purely on his projection; in fact, I would lower his (relative) ranking.You're making certain assumptions about how people project stats that I don't think are (necessarily) true.A significant portion of my interest in fantasy football is 'academic', so if you'd like to continue the stats discussion I's be happy to oblige, although a different thread might be more appropriate.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Greene is an interesting case. He reminds me of beanie last year. We knew he would get touches. The whole idea of his fantasy success hinged on Tds. Same with Greene - he will get touches. Fewer than 6 Tds and you'll regret the pick. More than 9 and he's a steal. Donald brown is the same way IMO.

So about 1.5 points per game difference makes you regret the pick?

Loosely speaking, 6 Tds vs 10 Tds is the difference between a decent pick and a home run at rb3/flex. In other words, findinf a 10 td back after the 5th round is a great find. So yeah.

Sure. But there were only 8 RBs last year that had 10 or more TDs. And of those 4 or 5 were taken in the first or second round.So I might temper expectations a bit on what constitutes a "regrettable" pick in the 5th or 6th round.

 

[Ryan99]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

I know I generate rankings by randomly pulling names out of a hat

Generally speaking, projections attempt to predict the future at WAY too specific of a degree. The only way for them to have value is to make them broader, which would then result in a tonne of overlap making any ranking system based on it pointless.

So how do you make rankings if not based on projections? Unless your rankings are completely qualitative, you have to be using numbers somehow. Do you just watch a ton film and go by 'feel'? Even if you can devote the time to do this, how do you compare players across positions to make an overall ranking without using some qualitative analysis?

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

I know I generate rankings by randomly pulling names out of a hat

Generally speaking, projections attempt to predict the future at WAY too specific of a degree. The only way for them to have value is to make them broader, which would then result in a tonne of overlap making any ranking system based on it pointless.

So how do you make rankings if not based on projections? Unless your rankings are completely qualitative, you have to be using numbers somehow. Do you just watch a ton film and go by 'feel'? Even if you can devote the time to do this, how do you compare players across positions to make an overall ranking without using some qualitative analysis?

I suppose I draft primarily by "feel", with that feel being based heavily on ADP, player situation, prior years stats, and film/college stats from certain younger players. As far as ranking players across position, that sorta thing can be figured out easily enough on the fly, which I'd also add is way more practical than going into the draft with a firm plan of drafting a TE in the 3rd round or something of that nature.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Any ranking system that's based on projections is doomed for failure.

I know I generate rankings by randomly pulling names out of a hat

Generally speaking, projections attempt to predict the future at WAY too specific of a degree. The only way for them to have value is to make them broader, which would then result in a tonne of overlap making any ranking system based on it pointless.

So how do you make rankings if not based on projections? Unless your rankings are completely qualitative, you have to be using numbers somehow. Do you just watch a ton film and go by 'feel'? Even if you can devote the time to do this, how do you compare players across positions to make an overall ranking without using some qualitative analysis?

previous productionheight weight speed idiot factorability in the red zonelast years statschanges in situationcurrent situationpedigreeI think making stat projections are a waste of time. Very rarely do you nail any stat for a player because there are too many variables that go on during the season, namely injuries. If you could give me a definitive answer on how many games a player was going to play during the season and a weekly report on what injuries the opposing defenses were also going to have, then maybe statistical projections would have more leverage.Biggest key is the amount of time you put into watching the games. Learning and understanding a players skill set, ceiling as a prospect and floor as a prospect are usually how I begin to form my rankings. Then I adjust accordingly based on the situation and how much opportunity I believe the player is going to have. Things change far to quickly in the NFL for you to waste time with a blanket statistical projection.

 

[Marauder]

You are mixing two terms here that are not synonymous. In your OP you referred to projections, implying stat projections. These are what I am saying are by nature conservative, especially for the highest ranked players at each position (rankings are a different animal, and should not necessarily align exactly with projections). For example, I do my own projections and I don't have any QB projected for more than 40 TD's but I would be willing to bet that at least one and probably more than one will throw for more than 40 TD's. When you actually sit down and do your own projections you it becomes obvious why this is true. You can't project outlyers but we intuitively know that every year there are going to be some, and although it is hard to predict exactly which players will be the outlyers we can usually predict pretty well what group of players the outlyers will come from. Stat projections do not accurately reflect floor and ceiling because of this outlyer issue. When I turn my projections into rankings I do factor these in. That's why I have Shonn Greene ranked lower than my stat projections show and why I have Julio Jones ranked higher than my stat projections show. If you want to take him in the 5th rather than the 6th that's fine. I probably will too but that is not what you seemed to be saying in your OP. Maybe that's why this thread has become such a Anyway, I think I've made my point clear by now but nobody else seems to get it so I'm done with this thread.

I don't know why you assume stat projections are conservative. If I was making my own projections and I had, for instance, a probability distribution for a stat for a specific player, I would use the mean. If you take a probability distribution and 'fatten the tail' i.e. increase the likelihood of having a high result or lengthen the tail i.e. increase the 'ceiling' of the player, this increases the mean. If your personal projections are more of a floor, than your argument makes sense, but I don't think that's how most people make their projections.I don't want to turn this into a statistics discussion, but here goes. If a player has a high floor and a high ceiling, the probability distribution will have a short tail on the low end and a long tail on the high end. The mean of this distribution will lie above the median, meaning that if you're using the mean for your published projections (which I think is a safe assumption although I don't know for sure), than it means that there is a larger chance of the guy under-performing his projection than over-performing it (although if he does over-perform it will tend to be by a larger amount than the under-perform average). This is definitely not what I want from a starter, and it doesn't make sense to me to raise this guy's draft ranking above his ranking based purely on his projection; in fact, I would lower his (relative) ranking.You're making certain assumptions about how people project stats that I don't think are (necessarily) true.A significant portion of my interest in fantasy football is 'academic', so if you'd like to continue the stats discussion I's be happy to oblige, although a different thread might be more appropriate.

I'm basing my assumption on observation. If you look at the 4 FBG staff members who posted their projections, only one has any QB's throwing for more than 37 TDs (and he is only going up to 41). None of them have any WR's over 13 TD's (and other than CJ I don't think any are going over 10). You can look at the yardage stats and see the same phenomenon. I've looked at 2 other pay sites that post projections and we see the same thing. You may try to project the outlyers statistically but you have already said you are not using your projections. Clearly the "experts" are not.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I noticed that your underrated players suck, for the most part. Your overrated players are studs, for the most part. So, based on my intuition, you should re-hypothesize the theorem that brought you to these rankings.

This thread almost belongs more in the FFA than the Pool

 

[Deamon]

So, I came up with a method for ranking players overall based on stat projections, and compared that to their ADP. I don't want to get into the methodology (although I can if anyone cares), I just wanted to post some results and see what the FBG community thinks. This is based on 6 points for all TDs. First, I should say that most of my rankings are in general agreement with ADP, which makes me feel good that my methodology isn't completely crap. Since this is comparing against ADP, some (a lot?) of these will be obvious, so mainly I'm looking for comments on the ones that aren't. Also, there are some guys that could produce that basically aren't drafted, or are at least not often listed in ADP; these players have been excluded.

Underrated (most underrated at top)

Evan Royster (pre Alfred Morris projections, possibly irrelevant)

Ronnie Hillman

Pierre Thomas

Shonn Greene

Donald Brown

Kevin Smith

Jonathan Stewart

Daniel Thomas

Josh Freeman

Felix Jones

The highest ranked player here is Greene. I have him at 32, ADP has him at 66 (!).

Overrated (most overrated at top)

Calvin Johnson

Julio Jones

Percy Harvin

Andre Johnson

Justin Blackmon

Vernon Davis

Larry Fitzgerald

Brandon Marshall

Jay Cutler

Aaron Hernandez

Rob Gronkowski

AJ Green

Victor Cruz

Greg Jennings

So basically people are drafting the top WRs too early and letting the RB3 caliber guys stay on the board too long. On my board I have Calvin Johnson at 9, Graham/Gronk at 18/19, L Fitz at 25 and the other tier 2 WRs in the late 20s, early 30s. ADP has Calvin at 6, Fitz at 16 and the tier two guys at early to mid 20s.

LOL

 

[bigunreal]

Jonathan Stewart underrated? Now, that's truly laughable. No one has ever had more deluded, Pollyanish supporters on all fantasy forums than he has.

Why is Gronk overrated while Graham isn't? Please explain.