Murky position groups: Who are you backing? (1 Viewer)

[zftcg]

There are lots of teams where we're wondering which RBs will emerge out of a crowded backfield, or which WR will soak up the most targets. I thought it might be useful to consolidate those discussions into a single thread.

Here are the situations that I'm still figuring out (for brevity's sake, tried to limit to situations where there are at least three draftable options):

Pats RBs: I'm leaning toward Burkhead, but that might be because I had mentally written Michel off. Also, James White is being forgotten because he's coming off a down year, but I feel like every year one of those scatbacks who we think we have figured out suddenly blows up (a la Duke Johnson last year or Riddick a couple years before that), and maybe it's White's turn

Dolphins WRs: I think it's mostly a stay-away. Stills is decent, but I tend to shy away from the boom/bust guys. Maybe now that everyone is writing him off, Parker will finally emerge. And I have no idea what to make of Amendola/Wilson.

Browns RBs: Johnson is probably due for regression. Hyde will probably have the most value early on, but I have no idea how the battle between him and Chubb will play out

Jax WRs: Cole seems to be emerging as the favorite, but if his ADP continues to climb I think Westbrook may become the better value. I want no part of Moncrief.

Indy RBs: YOU figure this one out. I'm out on the whole situation.

Dallas WRs: I'm leaning toward Gallup because I have no idea, and I think I have a better shot at getting him as a late-round flier.

Wash RBs: A has-been, a couple never-wases, and the best option is coming off a major injury

Wash WRs: I guess Crowder in PPR and Richardson as a late-round flier? I'm willing to have Doctson prove me wrong on someone else's roster.

Eagles RBs: I was high on Ajayi until this latest injury news cropped up. Now I'll probably stay away and monitor Clement to see if he emerges.

Detroit WRs: Is this the year Golladay finally emerges and displaces Jones? Either way, Jones is due for regression, so I'm probably out. Kenny G is worth it as a late-rounder, not worth it if his ADP rises too much.

GB RBs: I hate drafting guys on suspension and having them clog up my roster for a few weeks, so I think I'm out on Jones. Don't trust Williams. Maybe Montgomery in PPR leagues.

CAR WRs: Cam will probably make one guy useful, but not sure who it will be. Most likely Funchess, but he doesn't get me excited at all. Moore is another one who's not worth drafting but is worth monitoriing

LAR WRs: I think Cooks may be undervalued. Can't decide what I think of Woods. This may be the year Kupp vaults himself into the Fitz/Edelman/Landry ace slot-guy tier.

Looking over this list, I think that in the majority of cases, I'm not excited enough about the talent level to take too many chances. Which probably means the best thing to do is find the guy who's the cheapest and but a lottery ticket.

Any that I missed?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Good thread. I drafted some of these guys last night as they fell too far in a 12 team 1/2 ppr.

I took Burkhead in rd 6 as my rb3. 

I picked Crowder rd 9 and Funchess rd 10 as wr 4/5. Crowder feels like the likeliest producer with Smith. 

I got Aaron Jones in rd 15 as just easy value.

i would add the Sea RBs to this thread. Both went in the 8th rd last night.  

Not as exciting, but I would say Jets WR, Titans WR, GB WR after Adams, AZ WR after Fitz are all somewhat fluid. 

 

[abbottjamesr]

Pats RBs: Pass on Burkhead.  I like Michel if I can get him in the 8th or later.  I know what Burhead is (I think), and the upside isn't there.  If for some reason you need a week 1 starter at RB thats fine, but I try not to draft that way.

Dolphins WRs: I like both Stills and Amendola.  Both are cheap and could be decent flex plays through the year.  I don't think either become WR2's, but maybe WR3's if the Dolphins don't suck.

Browns RBs: Again I'm cheating and saying both.  I am a Chubb truther and have been drafting him late still cause I think he gets the job at some point this year and will be amazing.  However Hyde is going to be productive in that system with that line.  I'm fine drafting both at ADP.

Jax WRs: Cole seems more consitant and a potential WR2/3 type.  I still like Dede as a boom bust guy in best ball as the price is cheap.

Indy RBs: Hard pass on all of it.  I don't think the offense will be good with luck and even worse when he gets hurt.  I don't think there is any real talent there either.

Dallas WRs: Pass on all of it.  There might be a WR emerge as a WR3 or flex, but there are a lot of wr's that can do that with better odds.

Wash RBs: Peterson has some apeal in the 10th and on.  But some one will draft him before I will.  

Wash WRs: I have Crowder as draftable at his ADP but I never get him as there are others I prefer.  I have been drafting Reed a lot and is the only pass catcher I like there.

Eagles RBs: I was high on Ajayi and still am.  I want a piece of that o-line and the TDs are going to regress back tot he RB's some.  The price is good with the latest news.

Detroit WRs: I am a Jones truther so I still like him in the 5th or 6th.  Galloway is a one trick pony in my book and won't cut into Jones work load.  The TDs might regress some I am willing to admit.  Hard pass on Tate at his price.

GB RBs: Williams is the only one I want a piece of.  

CAR WRs: Pass on all in standard leagues.  I'll take Smith in the 20th of best ball drafts.

LAR WRs: Cooks is being over drafted.  I have him at 60 for 900 and 5 tds, almost exactly the same line as Kupp.  Woods is my prefered WR in the offense as I think he will have the most TDs of the bunch.  

 

[Snorkelson]

In think Tate suffers of the det WRs. Golladay is lining up opposite jones and Tate is getting slot work. I love it as a lions fan, but I think Tate regresses a bit in rec as golladay eats into his production. And we’ve only seen golladay used as a deep threat, but he’s good at the little things too. I think they will all be usable but none will be 1100 yd or 90 rec WRs.

 

[zftcg]

In think Tate suffers of the det WRs. Golladay is lining up opposite jones and Tate is getting slot work. I love it as a lions fan, but I think Tate regresses a bit in rec as golladay eats into his production. And we’ve only seen golladay used as a deep threat, but he’s good at the little things too. I think they will all be usable but none will be 1100 yd or 90 rec WRs.

Curious: How much of that opinion is influenced by the Rotoworld blurb last week that Golladay was in over Tate on 2WR sets? Because if it's just that, I wouldn't take it too seriously (Detroit went three-wide more than any other team last year, something like 85%). Also, last year at least, when Golladay was healthy it cut much more into Jones' production than Tate's.

Not really disagreeing with any of your conclusions, just interrogating your logic to see if it helps me organize my own thoughts better.

 

[abbottjamesr]

Curious: How much of that opinion is influenced by the Rotoworld blurb last week that Golladay was in over Tate on 2WR sets? Because if it's just that, I wouldn't take it too seriously (Detroit went three-wide more than any other team last year, something like 85%). Also, last year at least, when Golladay was healthy it cut much more into Jones' production than Tate's.

Not really disagreeing with any of your conclusions, just interrogating your logic to see if it helps me organize my own thoughts better.

This was at the beginning of the season and it was on a stretch where Jones faced Patrick Peterson, Janorius Jenkins, and Xavior Rhodes.  

Golladay will likely see more work this year, but I don't think it hurts Jones as much as people think.  Also the Lions run 3 WR most of the time and will likely run it more now that they don't have a recieving TE.

 

[jon_mx]

In think Tate suffers of the det WRs. Golladay is lining up opposite jones and Tate is getting slot work. I love it as a lions fan, but I think Tate regresses a bit in rec as golladay eats into his production. And we’ve only seen golladay used as a deep threat, but he’s good at the little things too. I think they will all be usable but none will be 1100 yd or 90 rec WRs.

Detroit has no real TE threat, so there may still be a lot of work for Tate.   So Tate will be OK.  Galloway is the guy to own.  Jones over-produced last year considering the number of targets.  Made many remarkable catches, just will be tough to repeat.  They could all be top 30 guys, with Galloway having the most upside. 

 

[Snorkelson]

Curious: How much of that opinion is influenced by the Rotoworld blurb last week that Golladay was in over Tate on 2WR sets? Because if it's just that, I wouldn't take it too seriously (Detroit went three-wide more than any other team last year, something like 85%). Also, last year at least, when Golladay was healthy it cut much more into Jones' production than Tate's.

Not really disagreeing with any of your conclusions, just interrogating your logic to see if it helps me organize my own thoughts better.

Preseason he lined up there, I’m a lions fan, I watch the games. I think Tate has some regression, maybe 70-80 rec rather than 90+ you could count on the last few years. I would love to see all 3 get 80 rec 1000 yds but that’s not happening. The defense doesn’t appear to be great so there could be lots of “not quite garbage time but in last chance mode” deep plays again to jones and Kenny g. 

That said I did read the roto blurb, and I happen to agree with the observation. 

 

[zftcg]

Preseason he lined up there, I’m a lions fan, I watch the games. I think Tate has some regression, maybe 70-80 rec rather than 90+ you could count on the last few years. I would love to see all 3 get 80 rec 1000 yds but that’s not happening. The defense doesn’t appear to be great so there could be lots of “not quite garbage time but in last chance mode” deep plays again to jones and Kenny g. 

That said I did read the roto blurb, and I happen to agree with the observation. 

Yeah, after I posted I realized I recognized you as one of the regulars in the Lions thread. Sorry for implying that you were doing drive-by analysis 

Actually, my main concern with Tate isn't that he'll fall off. It's that as a slot guy, he's not very consistent. He's kind of a poor man's Doug Baldwin in that sense (with way fewer TDs), in contrast to the more reliable slot guys like Fitz or Landry. I wouldn't hate ending up with him, but I'm not going to target him either.

 

[massraider]

There are lots of teams where we're wondering which RBs will emerge out of a crowded backfield, or which WR will soak up the most targets. I thought it might be useful to consolidate those discussions into a single thread.

Here are the situations that I'm still figuring out (for brevity's sake, tried to limit to situations where there are at least three draftable options):

Pats RBs:  Michel for me.  He's the best talent.

Dolphins WRs:Stills.  If I can get Parker late, I'll take a flyer

Browns RBs:  Chubb Chubb Chubb Chubb Chubby

Jax WRs: Love Cole, love his playoff sched

Indy RBs: Meh.  

Dallas WRs: Like Hurns at ADP

Wash RBs: Abort!!

Wash WRs: Alex Smith at QB?  Crowder all day long

Eagles RBs:  Avoiding

Detroit WRs:  I like both guys.

GB RBs: Williams....I guess

CAR WRs: I'll draft DJ Moore.  Love him.  

LAR WRs:  I have no idea, but I cannot shake feeling that this team will play good D, run Gurley, and maybe hurt WR fantasy output a bit.

Looking over this list, I think that in the majority of cases, I'm not excited enough about the talent level to take too many chances. Which probably means the best thing to do is find the guy who's the cheapest and but a lottery ticket.

Any that I missed?

Very good thread.  

 

[Chaka]

Pats RBs: White

Dolphins WRs: Stills

Browns RBs: Hyde then Chubb

Jax WRs: Cole.

Indy RBs: Michael.

Dallas WRs: Gallup, Rico.

Wash RBs: Football to the groin.

Wash WRs: Reed, Doctson.

Eagles RBs: Clement.

Detroit WRs: Tate, Golladay.

GB RBs: Williams.

CAR WRs: Funchess

LAR WRs: Cooks, Cupp

Good thread. Thanks.

 

[travdogg]

I think Jamaal Williams is the clear favorite in GB. Everyone in the coaching staff is expecting a 2nd year leap, and McCarthy historically, prefers to use 1 RB, from Eddie Lacy back to Ryan Grant. Williams could be an RB2, and is going well after a lot of similar level players in my eyes. 69th overall in my draft last night.

Brandin Cooks feels like one of those guys who is so overrated that he is underrated. Everybody has massively downgraded him because he left NE, in the drafts I've done, he's gone anywhere from round 7 to round 9, as a WR3/WR4. Feels like a steal in that range. He's a lot better WR than Watkins in my opinion, and in the Rams opinion too.

Nobody has mentioned the Titans RB's. In a draft I had last night, they went back to back. Lewis 43rd, Henry 44th. I like Henry quite a bit more than Lewis, is that the consensus?

 

[Ilov80s]

Mostly the cheaper option.

 

[Ilov80s]

Detroit has no real TE threat, so there may still be a lot of work for Tate.   So Tate will be OK.  Galloway is the guy to own.  Jones over-produced last year considering the number of targets.  Made many remarkable catches, just will be tough to repeat.  They could all be top 30 guys, with Galloway having the most upside. 

It sounds weird to say but Marvin Jones= discount Tyreek Hill for fantasy. 

 

[zftcg]

Wash RBs: Football to the groin.

 

[MAC_32]

Pats RBs: This is my football to the groin, :hat tip: chaka

Dolphins WRs: Stills because Wilson and Amendola will eat into each other and Parker can eat rocks.

Browns RBs: Because I'm not starting any of them and I'm looking to see who is carrying value in October, Chubb

Jax WRs: I think Westbrook comes with more big play ability, so - him

Indy RBs: Mack, because the others suck.

Dallas WRs: Hurns in best ball because I think he's targeted the most, but have no interest in regular leagues.

Wash RBs: Chris Thompson, so long as it's not as a starter because I don't want to use him before (at least) October

Wash WRs: Smith and Crowder are a match made in checkdown heaven.  Doctson and Richardson will neutralize each other too much.

Eagles RBs: in best ball, Clement.  If he falls far enough in regular leagues, Ajayi.  I think the recent news is much ado about nothing - he's dealt with this issue forever.  It's just maintenance right now.  I think he's limited to 15ish touches per game, but that's still quality #2 production in this offense.

Detroit WRs: Marvin > Tate, one of the few situations I'd handcuff a WR if I got one of them.  

GB RBs: Monty, he'll have a role regardless and I have no faith in the other two holding the job for an extended period of time.  If Williams were still cheaper then I'd be more interested in him, but he's not anymore.

CAR WRs: Funchess will be a quality starter, but I've cooled on his upside and it has nothing to do with Moore - it's Samuel.  I think he's earned enough targets to prevent Funchess from being a consistent 7-9 targets/game option.

LAR WRs: Probably none of them, but if any fall about 10-15 picks below where they usually go I'll consider it.

 

[zftcg]

This board so needs a "football to the groin" emoji.

 

[Snorkelson]

Kupp is the safe rams wr to draft imo. I don’t expect more than last year, but about the same. 

Chris Thompson was a top 5 rb the first 4 weeks last year. 

Williams will get the starts in GB and probably keep it unless he fumbles or really sucks. Monty however is dirt cheap and will be a solid ppr reserve player. He will be this years duke Johnson.

crowder in ppr

no one in Dallas for redraft. Seems like they could use dez Bryant...perhaps their leading receiver is on another team right now. 

I don’t know who in Miami but players had weeks with cutler and tannehill is way better so someone will be useful. 

 

[TheWinz]

Pats RBs: Same story, different year.  Better for best ball types, as you never know who will be the weekly stud.  Michel may finish the year strong.  BB hates fantasy football!

Dolphins WRs: WW fodder for small leagues; Stills worth a shot in larger ones, and Parker is enticing for those that have never owned him

Browns RBs: Similar to the Pats.  I'll take the wait-and-see approach - maybe Chubb at some point, not a fan of scatbacks as my flex

Jax WRs: All better suited for the subscriber contest, good value at ADP's, but wouldn't want them in my weekly lineup

Indy RBs: Wilkins may be worth a shot.  Mack is still recovering, Turbin is suspended, Michael will be turning 28 this year and hasn't seen much action in his 5 yrs, and Hines will play the scatback role.  If Wilkins does get the bulk in week 1 and has a solid game, he will be a WW priority

Dallas WRs: I will gladly draft the WR1 from DAL, but he will be in my lineup as my RB1; Gallup's worth a ride

Wash RBs: Ride the A-train until it derails.  Gruden knows the only way AP will flourish is as a workhorse, and WAS has no reason not to run him into the ground.  I bet he gets 20 carries a game for as long as his body can handle it.  Then drop him and pick up Chris Thompson, who will be in recovery mode.

Wash WRs: Crowder at ADP is a decent deal.  The only other receiver I want from WAS plays TE.

Eagles RBs: What is this "lower body" injury?  I had high hopes for Ajayi, but I want to talk to a doctor and get a second opinion.  If he misses time, Clement is a nice alternative.  I want no part of Sproles, but I do bow down to his awesomeness.  Just think about this - at 5'7" and 180, he put up 1313 yds on only 87 carries and 86 catches back in 2011, with an amazing 6.9YPC!  And he had 9 TD's to boot.

Detroit WRs: All 3 WR's can be supported by Stafford.  I have DET projected for about 1000 total offensive plays, and with their normal play-calling, that should give Stafford about 800 attempts.  All 3 WR's should see 200 targets.

GB RBs: I am a fan of Aaron Jones, and think he will take over after his suspension.  I know I am in the minority, but time will tell.

CAR WRs:  Cam Newton only has the capacity to make 1 WR fantasy relevant, so will it be Funchess or Moore?  Finkle or Einhorn?  I can't decide.

LAR WRs: I think any of these 3 can be a very good WR2, but prefer other WR's around their ADP's

 

[zftcg]

CAR WRs:  Cam Newton only has the capacity to make 1 WR fantasy relevant, so will it be Funchess or Moore?  Finkle or Einhorn?  I can't decide.

Einhorn is Finkle! Finkle is Einhorn! 



(Just watched that scene again on YouTube. Man, it has not aged well.)

 

[zftcg]

Just realized I left off one of the murkiest situations out there: Baltimore WRs. None of them are exciting me -- when has Flacco ever supported more than a low-end WR1? -- but I guess I would consider Crabtree as a low-end flex and Brown as a late-round flier.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Pats RBs: Pass on Burkhead.  I like Michel if I can get him in the 8th or later.  I know what Burhead is (I think), and the upside isn't there.  If for some reason you need a week 1 starter at RB thats fine, but I try not to draft that way.

Dallas WRs: Pass on all of it.  There might be a WR emerge as a WR3 or flex, but there are a lot of wr's that can do that with better odds.

Wash WRs: I have Crowder as draftable at his ADP but I never get him as there are others I prefer.  I have been drafting Reed a lot and is the only pass catcher I like there.

Detroit WRs: I am a Jones truther so I still like him in the 5th or 6th.  Galloway is a one trick pony in my book and won't cut into Jones work load.  The TDs might regress some I am willing to admit.  Hard pass on Tate at his price.

LAR WRs: Cooks is being over drafted.  I have him at 60 for 900 and 5 tds, almost exactly the same line as Kupp.  Woods is my prefered WR in the offense as I think he will have the most TDs of the bunch.  

agree with most of the post. got Burkhead as my RB3 like the OP and very comfortable there. As my first spot bench guys, I like players whom we think we know the floor even if the ceiling isn't very high. This is where I love Woods' value this year for the Rams. I consider his last year production as his floor at 85 targets and 5 TDs.

I would put Crowder in that same boat too, but staying away from Washington receivers. just not a A Smith believer.

really really curious what Dallas' identity will be in life after Dez.

Detroit is the team for me where every year there seems to be a good opportunity for picking up a player cheap and hitting big. that actually hasn't happened in awhile.