My positional rankings from week 10 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

QB:
Tier 1
1. Lamar Jackson(2)
2. Josh Allen(1)

Tier 2
3. Kyler Murray(4)

Tier 3
4. Tom Brady(5)
5. Jalen Hurts(7)...team is running more, but that is opening up longer passes. Super high floor.
6. Matthew Stafford(6)
7. Patrick Mahomes(3)...3 straight bad games, and not like they were against top defenses.

Tier 4
8. Justin Herbert(8)

Tier 5
9. Dak Prescott(9)
10. Russell Wilson(11)
11. Aaron Rodgers(12)
12. Joe Burrow(10)
13. Justin Fields(NR)...back to back top-10 weeks, and is looking a lot more comfortable, really impressed against tough Steeler D.
14. Taysom Hill(13)

Tier 6
15. Kirk Cousins(14)
Dropped out: Derek Carr(Ruggs field stretching speed is sorely missed)

 

[travdogg]

RB:
Tier 1
1. Austin Ekeler(1)
2. Christian McCaffrey(2)

Tier 2
3. Dalvin Cook(3)

Tier 3
4. Jonathan Taylor(4)
5. Najee Harris(7)
6. Ezekiel Elliott(6)
7. Aaron Jones(8)
8. D'Andre Swift(9)
9. Saquon Barkley(10)

Tier 4
10. Nick Chubb(13)...Hunt could be back in a week, and now he's got COVID.
11. Alvin Kamara(11)
12. Cordarrelle Patterson(15)...7th at WR
13. Darrell Henderson(5)...Michel has been a lot more involved the last 2 weeks.
14. James Conner(29)...Edmonds being out, makes Conner a much higher floor/ceiling play. That said, probably not a bad sell high if someone thinks he's suddenly a top-5 RB.
15. James Robinson(14)

Tier 5
16. Joe Mixon(12)...has had very fortunate TD luck. Not a must-sell, but again if somebody thinks he's a top-5 guy.
17. Kareem Hunt(16)
18. David Montgomery(17)
19. Leonard Fournette(18)

Tier 6
20. Elijah Mitchell(19)
21. Damien Harris(20)
22. Michael Carter(21)
23. Myles Gaskin(27)...still volatile, but top-10 in 3 of last 5 games.

Tier 7
24. Josh Jacobs(23)
25. Melvin Gordon(30)...its not exciting, but he's been an RB2 or better for the last month. 
26. Chris Carson(24)
27. Antonio Gibson(25)
28. Clyde Edwards-Helaire(26)

Tier 8
29. Zach Moss(NR)
30. Javonte Williams(NR)
Dropped out: Chase Edmonds(awful timing as he seemed to be seizing the #1 job from Conner, high ankle sprain could last all the way through fantasy playoffs) Adrian Peterson(looks like 3-man RBBC, and Peterson looked very rusty)
 

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1
1. Tyreek Hill(1)
2. Davante Adams(2)

Tier 2
3. Cooper Kupp(3)
4. Ja'Marr Chase(4)
5. Justin Jefferson(5)

Tier 3
6. Deebo Samuel(7)
7. DK Metcalf(8)
8. Hollywood Brown(15)...has fully become the #1 target. Bateman is no threat, and frankly neither is Andrews anymore.
9. DeAndre Hopkins(9)
10. AJ Brown(13)...has been over 30% targets in 4 in a row. If the Titans defense hot streak comes to an end, there is WR1 upside any given week. That said, the floor is still kinda low if gamescript doesn't cooperate.

Tier 4
11. Mike Williams(11)
12. Diontae Johnson(12)
13. Stefon Diggs(6)...big plays haven't really been there, and TD's never were. 
14. Keenan Allen(14)

Tier 5
15. Mike Evans(16)
16. Chris Godwin(19)
17. Adam Thielen(18)
18. CeeDee Lamb(17)
19. Michael Pittman(25)...a little nervous having him this high, as he's mostly been a TD guy the last 3 weeks. That said, he's clearly the #1, and Wentz has been better than expected.
20. Amari Cooper(20)
21. Terry McLaurin(21)
22. Brandin Cooks(28)...high floor, getting Tyrod back can only help.
23. Tee Higgins(22)

Tier 6
24. Antonio Brown(24)
25. Robert Woods(26)
26. DJ Moore(10)...its been a long time coming. Moore is probably a top 5-10 NFL WR, but Darnold is garbage. Randy Moss wouldn't have been a top-10 WR with Darnold.
27. Tyler Lockett(27)

Tier 7
28. Courtland Sutton(29)
29. Chase Claypool(30)
30. Sterling Shepard(31)
31. Jaylen Waddle(32)
32. Jerry Jeudy(33)

Tier 8
33. Christian Kirk(34)
34. Kadarius Toney(36)

Tier 9
35. Emmanuel Sanders(37)
36. AJ Green(38)
37. Hunter Renfrow(NR)...is the defacto #1 WR with Ruggs gone, and had a top-10 week last week. 
38. DeVonta Smith(NR)
39. Marvin Jones(35)...has had 2 straight disappearing acts. Still best WR on the Jags, but starting to get a little concerned about WR3 viability.
40. Cole Beasley(39)
Dropped out: Michael Thomas(maybe next year), Jakobi Meyers(even Julio Jones thinks this guy has bad TD luck)

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1
1. Travis Kelce(1)...says a lot about Kelce, that he and his offense are clearly not as good as last year, and I can't even make an argument for anyone else at #1.

Tier 2
2. Darren Waller(2)
3. Kyle Pitts(3)

Tier 3
4. George Kittle(5)...came back and looked good as new. Only think keeping him from tier 2, is 49ers having more mouths to feed than Raiders/Falcons.

Tier 4
5. Mark Andrews(4)...seems to have fallen behind Hollywood for #1 target. Bateman also hurts him a little too. 
6. Mike Gesicki(6)
7. TJ Hockenson(7)
8. Logan Thomas(8)
9. Dallas Goedert(9)

Tier 5
10. Rob Gronkowski(10)
11. Dawson Knox(11)
12. Dalton Schultz(12)
13. Noah Fant(13)

Tier 6
14. Tyler Higbee(14)

Tier 7
15. Hunter Henry(15)
Dropped out: None

 

[wgoldsph]

Not having Kupp as the no1 WR is criminal.  What more does the guy have to do?  Not to mention with a simple two deep shell absolutely slamming the breaks on the Chiefs as a whole Hill, who hasn't had a 100 yard day since week 4, can't be counted on as super elite until they get right.

I'd also bump Taylor into the 2nd tier.  Kid's legit.

 

[Truebluey]

How is Arnold not even in the TE rankings? Top 10 every week, he's their #2 target and is being used as a WR.

 

[sho nuff]

I keep struggling with guys like Sutton and Claypool.

Wondering if I am better off with someone like Renfrow as a steadier floor...or someone with more upside on a weekly basis.

 

[joffer]

always appreciated, but I don’t get the Mixon ranking.  Has been fortunate with TDs, but he’s getting lots of touches and is running well.

 

[travdogg]

Not having Kupp as the no1 WR is criminal.  What more does the guy have to do?  Not to mention with a simple two deep shell absolutely slamming the breaks on the Chiefs as a whole Hill, who hasn't had a 100 yard day since week 4, can't be counted on as super elite until they get right.

I'd also bump Taylor into the 2nd tier.  Kid's legit.

I think the Chiefs will get it figured out to an extent, at least the Hill and Kelce parts anyway. Hill hasn't had a 100 yard day since wek 4, but he had a 12-94-1 game 2 weeks ago, its not like he's been unproductive. I can understand preferring Kupp, I just don't. I still think teams will adjust, like they have with KC, and make others beat them. Probably why I'm likely higher on Higbee than most as well. 

Taylor was almost in the 2nd tier, I also almost had Cook in tier 1, but his lack of TD's are starting to concern me. Cook is due for a 3-TD game though as he leads the NFL in carries inside the 10, despite  missing a couple games. So having Taylor after him is more a bet on role usage than production right now. Taylor certainly has been very impressive.

How is Arnold not even in the TE rankings? Top 10 every week, he's their #2 target and is being used as a WR.

He has not been anything close to top-10 every week. He has 2 top-10 weeks(1 of which being 10th) He has been the #2 target the past 2 games, I agree, and he's in my top-20, but he has 0 TD's and hasn't topped 70 yards in a game yet. I don't see anyone in my top-15 I should rank him ahead of. Who would you prefer him to?

I keep struggling with guys like Sutton and Claypool.

Wondering if I am better off with someone like Renfrow as a steadier floor...or someone with more upside on a weekly basis.

I've always been a little more of a ceiling beats floor guy. Sutton and Claypool both have a lot more upside than Renfrow to me. Renfrow's season high in yards is 77. Truthfully, I'm not really excited about anybody in tier 9. 

always appreciated, but I don’t get the Mixon ranking.  Has been fortunate with TDs, but he’s getting lots of touches and is running well.

Mixon is playing very well, but Perine is basically playing 1/3 of the game now. In games where Mixon doesn't get in the endzone, his floor is pretty low. I'm not saying he's a bum or anything, he's currently 3rd in fantasy points at RB(really 2nd since he'll pass Henry) but it feels like this is his ceiling, and he has less margin for error than most. 

 

[joffer]

Mixon is playing very well, but Perine is basically playing 1/3 of the game now. In games where Mixon doesn't get in the endzone, his floor is pretty low. I'm not saying he's a bum or anything, he's currently 3rd in fantasy points at RB(really 2nd since he'll pass Henry) but it feels like this is his ceiling, and he has less margin for error than most. 

agree he's probably near his ceiling.  but even with Perine, seems like the touches are there.   good stuff

 

[DocHolliday]

This is a great thread every week.  

 

[dcgangstas]

Great list as always Trav. 

I tend to think that Pat Freiermuth deserves a mention at the TE position. 

As Daffy Duck would say, The Muth is Looth in the Steel City.  

 

[travdogg]

Great list as always Trav. 

I tend to think that Pat Freiermuth deserves a mention at the TE position. 

As Daffy Duck would say, The Muth is Looth in the Steel City.  

Been extremely impressed by Freiermuth. NFL wise, I think he's been much more impressive than Najee Harris has been. Its so much harder for a rookie TE to play well than a rookie RB. 

Fantasy wise, he's probably making the list next week if this Claypool injury is anything major. 

 

[TheWinz]

As Kyler Murray misses a game, he climbs to #3?  As an owner, I love your ranking, but as a FF'er, are you crazy?  Kyler looks like he may miss his 2nd week in a row, yet he is climbing your rankings.  Explain please.

 

[Riffraff]

Wentz is a top 8 QB over the last 5 weeks.

Over-all (including missed time) 17 TDs/3 INTs is decent. 7 of 9 games with 2 TDs or more. If healthy, should break into your top 15.

 

[BassNBrew]

As Kyler Murray misses a game, he climbs to #3?  As an owner, I love your ranking, but as a FF'er, are you crazy?  Kyler looks like he may miss his 2nd week in a row, yet he is climbing your rankings.  Explain please.

Murray will be playing in a larger percentage of the remaining games then he would have been last week.

 

[TheWinz]

Murray will be playing in a larger percentage of the remaining games then he would have been last week.

No, he will be a spectator in a larger percentage of the remaining games then he would have been last week.

 

[Truebluey]

" I agree, and he's in my top-20, but he has 0 TD's and hasn't topped 70 yards in a game yet. I don't see anyone in my top-15 I should rank him ahead of. Who would you prefer him to?" 

Guys not getting targets. 

Henry

Higbee

Knox

Gronk

He's going to outperform all those guys ROS 

 

[humpback]

As Kyler Murray misses a game, he climbs to #3?  As an owner, I love your ranking, but as a FF'er, are you crazy?  Kyler looks like he may miss his 2nd week in a row, yet he is climbing your rankings.  Explain please.

" I agree, and he's in my top-20, but he has 0 TD's and hasn't topped 70 yards in a game yet. I don't see anyone in my top-15 I should rank him ahead of. Who would you prefer him to?" 

Guys not getting targets. 

Henry

Higbee

Knox

Gronk

He's going to outperform all those guys ROS 

Missed games is certainly a factor, but you guys are acting as if you have to take a zero when players are out. It's not really a list of who is going to score the most total FF points the rest of the way, it's more who he thinks will give you an advantage on a ppg basis.

For instance, if Murray sits you plug in your back-up (even if it's someone like McCoy, who happened to outscore Allen, Mahomes, Hurts, and Stafford this week lol). Then when Murray comes back, he feels he'll more than make up the disadvantage you had when he was out. I suspect for Murray specifically he may feel this rest will allow him to finally heal up and get back to 100%, which he hasn't been at in a while, but just a hunch.

For TE's he's essentially saying that he thinks the combination of a back up/streaming TE for however long Knox is out (and he could be back as soon as this week) plus Knox will outperform someone like Arnold the rest of the way. Obviously he could be wrong (and certainly will be in some instances as we all will be), but that's not the same thing as saying Knox will outscore Arnold for the rest of the season (although both could be true).

 

[BobbyLayne]

Great list as always Trav. 

I tend to think that Pat Freiermuth deserves a mention at the TE position. 

As Daffy Duck would say, The Muth is Looth in the Steel City.  

Glaring omission. He’s been QB9 on a PPG basis over the last 5 weeks, while Kyler (QB14j and Patrick (QB20) have been duds. 

 

[travdogg]

As Kyler Murray misses a game, he climbs to #3?  As an owner, I love your ranking, but as a FF'er, are you crazy?  Kyler looks like he may miss his 2nd week in a row, yet he is climbing your rankings.  Explain please.

Its less that he climbed and more that Mahomes fell. 

Wentz is a top 8 QB over the last 5 weeks.

Over-all (including missed time) 17 TDs/3 INTs is decent. 7 of 9 games with 2 TDs or more. If healthy, should break into your top 15.

Wentz is right on the bubble. Cousins' weapons and better track record give him the edge for me.

" I agree, and he's in my top-20, but he has 0 TD's and hasn't topped 70 yards in a game yet. I don't see anyone in my top-15 I should rank him ahead of. Who would you prefer him to?" 

Guys not getting targets. 

Henry

Higbee

Knox

Gronk

He's going to outperform all those guys ROS 

I could see having him over Henry(in PPR) but I don't think Arnold has anywhere near the upside of Gronk/Knox and I think as defenses adjust to Kupp, Higbee should be the main beneficiary. 

 

[Truebluey]

For TE's he's essentially saying that he thinks the combination of a back up/streaming TE for however long Knox is out (and he could be back as soon as this week) plus Knox will outperform someone like Arnold the rest of the way. Obviously he could be wrong (and certainly will be in some instances as we all will be), but that's not the same thing as saying Knox will outscore Arnold for the rest of the season (although both could be true).

This is not original to me, but at TE what you want is OPPORTUNITY.  Targets = Chance of success. What do Kelce, Waller, TJ, Pitts have in common. 

Logan Thomas was like that last year. Who is like that now? You have to pay attention to trends. I like Knox, but he's behind Diggs, Sanders and often the RB. Higbee has Kupp, Woods, VJ. You get the point. Arnold lead his team on targets this week. 

 

[humpback]

This is not original to me, but at TE what you want is OPPORTUNITY.  Targets = Chance of success. What do Kelce, Waller, TJ, Pitts have in common. 

Logan Thomas was like that last year. Who is like that now? You have to pay attention to trends. I like Knox, but he's behind Diggs, Sanders and often the RB. Higbee has Kupp, Woods, VJ. You get the point. Arnold lead his team on targets this week. 

At TE (and, well, every position) what you want is POINTS. Points=success, which>>>chance of success. What those guys have in common is they score a lot of points. 

Obviously all else being equal you'd prefer guys who get more targets, but it isn't absolutely necessary (see Tonyan last year) and all else isn't equal. Knox may be the 3rd or 4th option on Buffalo, but Buffalo's offense>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Jax.

Speaking of trends, prior to leaving the Tennessee game early due to his injury, Knox had scored a TD in 4 consecutive games (total of 5 TDs). IMO that's a much more meaningful trend than Arnold leading the team in targets for 1 week (a week where he still wasn't a top 10 scoring TE).

Don't get me wrong, I like Arnold (have him as my back-up) and I have no issue with having him in the top 15 the rest of the way (he very well could end up there). Really I only chimed in because of the comments about outscoring other players the rest of the way since there's more to it than just that.

 

[Truebluey]

At TE (and, well, every position) what you want is POINTS. Points=success, which>>>chance of success. What those guys have in common is they score a lot of points. 

Obviously all else being equal you'd prefer guys who get more targets, but it isn't absolutely necessary (see Tonyan last year) and all else isn't equal. Knox may be the 3rd or 4th option on Buffalo, but Buffalo's offense>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Jax.

Speaking of trends, prior to leaving the Tennessee game early due to his injury, Knox had scored a TD in 4 consecutive games (total of 5 TDs). IMO that's a much more meaningful trend than Arnold leading the team in targets for 1 week (a week where he still wasn't a top 10 scoring TE).

Don't get me wrong, I like Arnold (have him as my back-up) and I have no issue with having him in the top 15 the rest of the way (he very well could end up there). Really I only chimed in because of the comments about outscoring other players the rest of the way since there's more to it than just that.

Thanks. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. TD's for TEs are too unpredictable to bank on. I prefer the high floor of 6-10 targets a game at that position. 

I have both Knox and Arnold and I'm starting Arnold this week until I see evidence that BUFF is running plays designed for Dawson. 

I guess non ppr might be different, you'd have more of a case there and I wouldn't disagree. 

 

[jobarules]

Thanks. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. TD's for TEs are too unpredictable to bank on. I prefer the high floor of 6-10 targets a game at that position. 

I have both Knox and Arnold and I'm starting Arnold this week until I see evidence that BUFF is running plays designed for Dawson. 

I guess non ppr might be different, you'd have more of a case there and I wouldn't disagree. 

Arnold is a FA in all 3 of my leagues. Im starting Knox in one of my leagues. The starting TE on the Jaguars is not someone I want to be heavily invested in.

 

[Chaka]

Great list and I am sure we'll considered.

Taylor seems way to low. Is it that he isn't getting 25 touches per game? Frankly that's part of the reason I rank him above guys like Cook & McCaffrey.

Then again Ekeler is getting the identical amount of opportunities per game.

Schedule RoS?

Taylor would be the sole occupant of Tier 1 if I wasn't too lazy to make my own list.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks for doing these @travdogg They're super difficult to do and thanks for sharing.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Agree with prior sentiment that this is a great weekly thread.

My nitpicking....

QB - something is amiss when Mahomes is Tier 3 and Prescott, Rodgers, and Wilson are Tier 5.  Maybe merge 3, 4 and 5A and separately merge 5B and 6.

RB - Bump up Taylor and Najee.  Bump up Damien Harris.  Bump down Henderson.

WR - You really should flip Tyreek and Kupp.  Bump up Evans.  Bump down Dhop's ghost.  Keenan Allen seems to be positively regressing (bump up?).

TE - I'd predict Pitts, Kittle and Logan Thomas move up in the coming weeks.  If Atlanta continues current + trend, Pitts could be TE1 by year end.

 

[travdogg]

Agree with prior sentiment that this is a great weekly thread.

My nitpicking....

QB - something is amiss when Mahomes is Tier 3 and Prescott, Rodgers, and Wilson are Tier 5.  Maybe merge 3, 4 and 5A and separately merge 5B and 6.

RB - Bump up Taylor and Najee.  Bump up Damien Harris.  Bump down Henderson.

WR - You really should flip Tyreek and Kupp.  Bump up Evans.  Bump down Dhop's ghost.  Keenan Allen seems to be positively regressing (bump up?).

TE - I'd predict Pitts, Kittle and Logan Thomas move up in the coming weeks.  If Atlanta continues current + trend, Pitts could be TE1 by year end.

I'm glad you brought up the tier thing. One of things I really wanted to do, was make sure I didn't just put guys in tiers to have it look equal or normal, I guess. If I felt there was a reasonable difference between guys, they deserved their own tiers. Justin Herbert has basically been his own tier all year for me, for that reason. He's not on the level of say, Brady, but he's clearly ahead of a guy like Rodgers., so he shouldn't be in a tier with either in my opinion. Prescott might get bumped up a tier, if Dallas throws more with Gallup back. 

Its funny, I was pretty much driving the Damien Harris bandwagon, and was repeatedly told he was too high weeks ago. I said his schedule was getting easier, and he was locked into 15 carries and a GL role or a run first team, and things would sort themselves out. Now, he's probably on the other side of that variance. I feel that way a little about Taylor too, he's great, but he's also played a little above his head of late, with 3 70+ yard TD's in his last 5 games. He still hasn't topped 20 carries in a game this season. I'm not sure I can have the lead RB on a top offense lower than I have Henderson. He just has too high of a ceiling to me. 

I'm being stubborn, and perhaps overvaluing previous sentiment, but I'm still 100% all-in on Tyreek Hill, even with Mahomes struggles. Evans probably could be higher, I'll agree there. I'm trying to thread a needle between PPR and non-PPR, and Evans only has 39 catches on the season so far. He's very TD dependent, though he's also arguably the NFL's best redzone WR. He's a hard guy to rank in general I think. Keenan Allen is similar, but the exact opposite, where he's so much more valuable in PPR. Hopkins has also been increasingly TD dependent, and perhaps he's another guy I'm being stubborn about, but I think he's been hampered by injury more than anything else, and could finish hot.

100% agree that Pitts could finish as TE1. But he's been somewhat shut down in these 2 weeks without Ridley. Yes, it was tougher matchups, but seeing is believing so to speak. Kittle is another perfect reason I have some 1-man tiers. He's a top-3 TE on talent, but Deebo has staked his claim as the #1, Aiyuk is back from the land of misfit toys, Trey Lance is still waiting in the wings, and Kittle is starting to look injury prone. Just a little more uncertainty there for me. I'm surprised you think Thomas is too low, I felt I've been probably pushing him too high because I like him a lot, and have been keeping him in the top-10 despite him being out for so long. Who would you put him above? Hockenson? Gesicki?