***My Projections are now Posted*** (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

Finally finished my 2008 projections. This is the first batch, but I think it's pretty thorough. I usually don't alter much due to the pre-season, except for positional battles that become settled or injury. I don't care if so-and-so looks great or horrible if they have a proven track record.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I DON'T PROJECT INJURIES. There will be more QBs with 4000+ yards and more RBs with 1000+ yards than history. However, my league-wide totals are consistent. It's just that some guys will get hurt and other guys will pick up the slack. When that happens, you can sub out that player, so the important factor is where players rank relative to each other.

Go ahead and take a look. I put in a lot of time and have been doing this for many years. I'm confident in my numbers, and I don't mind if some guys seem way out of whack. You can't win if your rankings are the same as everyone else's.

I'd love to know which guys are more out of whack than others. I haven't looked at ADP numbers or other's ranking at all.

If you want my whole spreadsheet, email me or PM me and I'll send it to you. Just join a Phenoms FF league and we'll call it even.

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

EDIT: Updated as of 8/10/08

 

[Wu-banger]

Good work ....

the only thing that surprises me is Rodgers projected success. Although there is the offense in place for him to thrive... we will see.

Thanks

 

[evilempire]

Finally finished my 2008 projections. This is the first batch, but I think it's pretty thorough. I usually don't alter much due to the pre-season, except for positional battles that become settled or injury. I don't care if so-and-so looks great or horrible if they have a proven track record.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I DON'T PROJECT INJURIES. There will be more QBs with 4000+ yards and more RBs with 1000+ yards than history. However, my league-wide totals are consistent. It's just that some guys will get hurt and other guys will pick up the slack. When that happens, you can sub out that player, so the important factor is where players rank relative to each other.

Go ahead and take a look. I put in a lot of time and have been doing this for many years. I'm confident in my numbers, and I don't mind if some guys seem way out of whack. You can't win if your rankings are the same as everyone else's.

I'd love to know which guys are more out of whack than others. I haven't looked at ADP numbers or other's ranking at all.

If you want my whole spreadsheet, email me or PM me and I'll send it to you. Just join a Phenoms FF league and we'll call it even.

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

Nice job with the numbers! That's a lot of hard work!The only things I don't see ... Carson Palmer being that low; McFadden rushing for anything near 1000 yards; and LJ among the top 10.

Very interesting, thought provoking stuff!

 

[CommishCurd]

Man that looks like a lot of work. I like that you make some bold picks. Good work.

 

[bcr8f]

Rodgers above Brees and Wayne at 9 make no sense to me. As a Pack fan I like it but he will have missteps this year.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Your projections for HOU RB's may need to be tweaked. You left off Chris Brown (maybe you did that on purpose), and they recently signed Mike Bell. Something to consider.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Unlucky, good work.

What leads you to believe that Peyton Manning will have more attempts and completions this year than Tom Brady? Last year Brady had 578 attempts, something Manning has only done once in his career and that was years ago.

I'm a betting man and I think Brady will throw the ball more than Peyton this year.

 

[RBM]

Always a fan of the Unlucky projections

 

[gman74]

Alice Crumple ahead of Shockey huh

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Nice work.

Since you obviously put in a lot of time and thought, I'd love to hear your reasons behind a few of your projections. For the TE's:

Scheffler - His pace after the BYE week last year (last 11 games, after returning from injury) would have been 68-744-7 for a full season. Why do you think he will regress this year?

McMichael - You have him with about a 50% increase over last year. He was slightly more productive last year when Jackson wasn't in the lineup. Why such a big increase?

Crumpler - You have him producing at near career highs. I can see him bouncing back from last year's dismal numbers but you also have Scaife dropping 35-40%. Any reason for the big jump/decline?

 

[CommishCurd]

Thank you for making the template available Unlucky. I downloaded it and it looks like it will take over my Saturday.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Alice Crumple ahead of Shockey huh

I like your Crumpler projection... I see good things for him working with Vince

 

[BuckeyeArt]

For RB's:

McFadden - 328 touches seems like too much. I know he had more than that in college last year but you have to go back to Tomlinson to find the last rookie RB with that many touches. M Bush at 0? I think Bush takes some of those you gave to McFadden. ADP had 257 last year and R Bush had 243 in his rookie year. I think 250-270 is more realistic.

 

[RBM]

Quick interesting tidbit

Palmer, Anderson, Kitna, Rodgers, Schaub

All 26 td/19 int

 

[gman74]

Alice Crumple ahead of Shockey huh

I like your Crumpler projection... I see good things for him working with Vince :(

I like 280lb tight ends that get lit up by DB's also

 

[Unlucky]

Your projections for HOU RB's may need to be tweaked. You left off Chris Brown (maybe you did that on purpose), and they recently signed Mike Bell. Something to consider.

Yeah, they are really impossible to predict right now. I left Brown off because it looks like he's banged up already. I'm not assuming he even makes the team. Bell couldn't even get 10 carries in DEN last year, so I don't see him doing anything. All I know about HOU RB is that I won't be drafting A. Green.

 

[Unlucky]

Unlucky, good work.What leads you to believe that Peyton Manning will have more attempts and completions this year than Tom Brady? Last year Brady had 578 attempts, something Manning has only done once in his career and that was years ago.I'm a betting man and I think Brady will throw the ball more than Peyton this year.

When looking at Indy, I love that they have 4 very good weapons in the passing game. The offense looks like Manning's record year when Stokley was in the slot catching a ton of passes. Combined with nobody solid behind Addai, perhaps a weaker D, and a more difficult schedule, and that's how it came out. As for NE, their schedule is CAKE. As long as Sammy Morris stay healthy to share some load with Maroney, I just see this team running more with leads late. Remember, I take it team by team and then see how it shakes out.

 

[benm3218]

I like them. Good job. One thing - I can't see Rodgers above Rothlesburger in a million years...

 

[RBM]

Wow you are huge on Schaub huh

 

[Unlucky]

Nice work.Since you obviously put in a lot of time and thought, I'd love to hear your reasons behind a few of your projections. For the TE's:Scheffler - His pace after the BYE week last year (last 11 games, after returning from injury) would have been 68-744-7 for a full season. Why do you think he will regress this year?McMichael - You have him with about a 50% increase over last year. He was slightly more productive last year when Jackson wasn't in the lineup. Why such a big increase?Crumpler - You have him producing at near career highs. I can see him bouncing back from last year's dismal numbers but you also have Scaife dropping 35-40%. Any reason for the big jump/decline?

Not sure on Scheffler - I'll take a closer look at him. Be careful taking 11 games and extrapolating a whole season.McMichael - look at his career numbers - very solid. He took a big dip last year with the new team, but I think he comes back to life this year. Al Saunders is new OC, and was in WAS last two years and KC before that. Cooley and Gonzo put up huge numbers.Crumpler - This is mainly a situational projection. TEN throws to the TE a lot. Crumpler will get a TON of targets in this offense. I do worry about his overall talent, but he's in a GREAT situation.

 

[Darker Knight]

You project DJ Hackett to put up 23/288/3 but you say your projections don't take into account injuries....the only way Hackett puts up numbers like these is if he misses 8 or 9 games.

Good work for the most part.......... thanks for the source.

 

[Unlucky]

For RB's:McFadden - 328 touches seems like too much. I know he had more than that in college last year but you have to go back to Tomlinson to find the last rookie RB with that many touches. M Bush at 0? I think Bush takes some of those you gave to McFadden. ADP had 257 last year and R Bush had 243 in his rookie year. I think 250-270 is more realistic.

I really like McFadden, but I'll take a closer look. I could be a little too optimistic on him, but he's got skills and the Raiders are going to be a run-first team.

 

[Unlucky]

I like them. Good job. One thing - I can't see Rodgers above Rothlesburger in a million years...

The weapons in that GB passing game are fantastic. I really was impressed with Rodgers vs. DAL last year. So, his numbers are probably higher than what most expect.Adding Mendenhall will hurt Ben's TDs. That's likely the reason for his drop in production this year. Side note: I had Ben ahead of Brees last year, and people said the same thing.

 

[jurb26]

For RB's:McFadden - 328 touches seems like too much. I know he had more than that in college last year but you have to go back to Tomlinson to find the last rookie RB with that many touches. M Bush at 0? I think Bush takes some of those you gave to McFadden. ADP had 257 last year and R Bush had 243 in his rookie year. I think 250-270 is more realistic.

I really like McFadden, but I'll take a closer look. I could be a little too optimistic on him, but he's got skills and the Raiders are going to be a run-first team.

I think your instincts on McFadden are correct. I would change the distribution of touches for him however. You have him at 290 carries and 38 receptions for a total of 328 touches. I think the overall touches number for McFadden will be in that ball park, but more along the lines of 240-250 carries and 65-80 receptions. Great work overall and I appreciate the effort you put into this.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Be careful taking 11 games and extrapolating a whole season.

I agree, normally. I look to see if the pace is steady, increasing, or decreasing throughout the year. Also, I remove extraordinary games (ala Chambers, Evans). In Scheffler's case, his pace is steady to improving (last 8, last 4) and there are no unusually productive games that throw off the numbers. His looks legit.

 

[Unlucky]

You project DJ Hackett to put up 23/288/3 but you say your projections don't take into account injuries....the only way Hackett puts up numbers like these is if he misses 8 or 9 games.Good work for the most part.......... thanks for the source.

New team, playing behind Muhammad and Smith, I don't think Hackett is that good.

 

[Unlucky]

Wow you are huge on Schaub huh

I love the Texans passing game. Just need to stay healthy. Schaub has good numbers when he's played, Andre is for real, Daniels is great, and I don't see the running game doing much.

 

[Darker Knight]

You project DJ Hackett to put up 23/288/3 but you say your projections don't take into account injuries....the only way Hackett puts up numbers like these is if he misses 8 or 9 games.Good work for the most part.......... thanks for the source.

New team, playing behind Muhammad and Smith, I don't think Hackett is that good.

he put up 32/384/3 in 6 games in 2007....Also I would not be so sure that he is playing behind Muhammad.....

 

[MCguidance]

I like some of your projections - I see Schaub taking a BIG step forward. A couple of notes just glancing at the numbers. I will add some more later, just wanted to see what you were thinking, because it piques my curiosity:

McGahee to get 62 receptions - his career high is about 20 fewer, so are you buying into the "he is a 3 down back" talk?

Grant to get only 35 receptions - he had 30 in 8 games last year, I thought this number would be higher.

Leinart is not going to play from the get go?

Moss to get 20 Tds to follow up 22 last year; your numbers indicate that the Pats will remain pass heav -Maroney fewer than 1k

Thanks for all your hard work, I think this is what makes the SP very valuable. My comments are in no way to critique you but rather just gain better insight

 

[Londo]

Finally finished my 2008 projections. This is the first batch, but I think it's pretty thorough. I usually don't alter much due to the pre-season, except for positional battles that become settled or injury. I don't care if so-and-so looks great or horrible if they have a proven track record.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: I DON'T PROJECT INJURIES. There will be more QBs with 4000+ yards and more RBs with 1000+ yards than history. However, my league-wide totals are consistent. It's just that some guys will get hurt and other guys will pick up the slack. When that happens, you can sub out that player, so the important factor is where players rank relative to each other.

Go ahead and take a look. I put in a lot of time and have been doing this for many years. I'm confident in my numbers, and I don't mind if some guys seem way out of whack. You can't win if your rankings are the same as everyone else's.

I'd love to know which guys are more out of whack than others. I haven't looked at ADP numbers or other's ranking at all.

If you want my whole spreadsheet, email me or PM me and I'll send it to you. Just join a Phenoms FF league and we'll call it even.

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

Great job as always unlucky. I look forward to these each year and appreciate you sharing them with us.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The weapons in that GB passing game are fantastic.

Definitely true.I do think that 7.5 YPA and 63% completion percentage are both on the high side for Rodgers, but not outside the realm of realistic possibility. I agree that his receivers make him a very attractive fantasy QB at his current draft position.

 

[Tau837]

 

[H8fulHuck]

Nice work!

Pgh homer here and I agree about Big Ben's numbers taking a dip this year due to the presence of Mendenhall. Last year I moved him up with the Bus gone and no obvious GL back. I project Mendenhall to grade out in the Bus mold and rack up some nice games.

I am very high on HOU offense this year also. They are and will continue to be under rated going into the season.

Rodgers has everything laid out in front of him to have a monster first year. The entire team looks solid and he has been in the NFL long enough to step into this offense and prosper.

Hard to see the ARZ qb numbers below starter material when you have two top 12 WR on the same team. You might want to think about dropping Fitz/Boldin or bumping up the QB projection here. FWIW - I am actually higher on Boldin this year than Fitz with Lienert in the saddle.

Edit to add: Would your rather start Garrard with the highest ranked WR on your list at 49 or Lienert/Warner with two top 12 WR?

TE thoughts - It is nice to see the Alge bashing. Everything feels right for a big year in Dinger's offense.

I see Sheffler as a pretty solid TE to target too. He will probably be the #2 option in the passing game. With the beast Marshall demanding attention, Sheff should thrive.

Note: Keep an eye on DJ Hackett with the 2 game suspension of SS. I like his chances if he gets an opportunity to catch Delhomme's affection.

 

[baconisgood]

This is my first year reading this site, so I want to add my thanks to everyone else's. Fantasy is a lot more fun with more information out there.

First of all QBs. I think you are far to high on Garrard. Last year he missed 4 games- ALL 4 were Road games which will skew your projections for his full year if you haven't accounted for it. I feel like last year was a best case scenario for him and this year there will be more focus on stopping their passing game going in.

Palmer- career INTs 18, 12, 13, 20, you project 19. I think the Bengals had protection issues last year that they have worked out + they now have Ben Utech as a short passing option. He may not be a top TE but last year as Indys number 2 option there he had 11 more receptions than Reggie Kelly in one less game. I have Utech picking up 40 receptions for this team and a couple of TDs.

I don't like Kitna where he is, he's 36 and his biggest TD years are 26, 23, 21, 18 (twice) and you have him going for 26 again? They have no receiving TE and no pass catching RB. So while they have good WRs their passing game is incomplete.

 

[joffer]

nice job Mike. i always find your perspective interesting.

 

[Buffaloes]

That looks like a lot of work...thanks.

 

[Unlucky]

Some minor tweaks now with Favre and Pennington moving and Torain getting hurt.

Other than injury or changes in jobs, I don't make many adjustments in the pre-season.

 

[Yitbos69]

Some minor tweaks now with Favre and Pennington moving and Torain getting hurt. Other than injury or changes in jobs, I don't make many adjustments in the pre-season.

I would adjust DJ Hackett's numbers for 2 reasons:1) They are too low to begin with.2) With SS suspended for the 1st two games that means DJ will be the Starter for at least the 1st two game. Bump worthy

 

[The Jacket]

I don't see Brodie Croyle throwing that many INTs. He has this reputation as an awful passer, but he generally doesn't turn it over too much. And he's looked very good this camp/pre-season, which wasn't the case last year.

I think Tony Gonzalez will get a few more grabs, as will rookie Brad Cottam. He's looked like a threat thus far. Everything else looks pretty good as far as the Chiefs go.