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I've just been ice cold since I've been on the road. I enjoy talking about the games, but don't want to start discussions when I don't even trust my opinion right now

 
Ok well I'll take all opinions even if you are cold.

Tonight:

Holiday/Rose - Mathbox seems down on Rose, not sure why Lakers are worse in the league against PG and he has been deemed a go.

Butler/Afflalo - No Melo seems like Afflalo plats well those games

Porter/Gallinari

Cauley-Stein/Gibson - WCS is hot and someone needs to play the minutes in the front court for the Bulls, Gibson seems the safer then Portis

Cousins - Boogie comes back big tonight

Alternate Lineup

Holiday/Clarkson

Butler/Harris

George/Gallinari

Gibson/R.Anderson

Gortat

 
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I like the boogie MCS pairing. Boogies said his uptick in production is a direct result of Stein. No reason to think he doesn't keep getting lots of minutes.

Can't see myself getting away from Holiday either. Muiday seems like the safest spot to free up some salary though, I'll probably pair them. And Derozan looks like the clear obvious play on the slate. Anderson should be that guy with brow out, but I'm afraid Anderson guards Boogie and gets into foul trouble as a result. I'll probably lay down at PF so I can squeeze Derozan and Butler in at SG. Really hate every other option there today.

 
NixonMask said:
I like the boogie MCS pairing. Boogies said his uptick in production is a direct result of Stein. No reason to think he doesn't keep getting lots of minutes.

Can't see myself getting away from Holiday either. Muiday seems like the safest spot to free up some salary though, I'll probably pair them. And Derozan looks like the clear obvious play on the slate. Anderson should be that guy with brow out, but I'm afraid Anderson guards Boogie and gets into foul trouble as a result. I'll probably lay down at PF so I can squeeze Derozan and Butler in at SG. Really hate every other option there today.
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Muiday over Rose ?

 
I didn't realize Nelson is expected back now, that probably changes thingd. I like muidays floor more, cheaper too if Nelson is out. Hard to argue rose doesn't have a higher ceiling though.

 
I think I am done. Actually put both those lineups in last night. Not crazy big but by my standards fairly big with about $15 on each, all cash games except for a $1 GPP for each just in case. Oddly both scored identical 301.10, in the fall anything over 300 was a sure fire winner in cash and probably cashed 50% of the time in GPP's. Last night not even close, need 308+ in double up, the $5 double up was 312.20. And every night seems this way now. Not sure if guys have just gotten better or the big players are just putting more entries in or what but $200 a point is no longer the number for getting value, it's more like $190.

 
SwampDawg said:
I think I am done. Actually put both those lineups in last night. Not crazy big but by my standards fairly big with about $15 on each, all cash games except for a $1 GPP for each just in case. Oddly both scored identical 301.10, in the fall anything over 300 was a sure fire winner in cash and probably cashed 50% of the time in GPP's. Last night not even close, need 308+ in double up, the $5 double up was 312.20. And every night seems this way now. Not sure if guys have just gotten better or the big players are just putting more entries in or what but $200 a point is no longer the number for getting value, it's more like $190.
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On the quantitative front there is more data available now so modeling is much better. On the qualitative front, players are rounding into shape and there is more predictability in terms of role, usage, etc.

The biggest shift I've seen has been in the GPPs. Early in the season GPPs were actually cashing at lower point totals than the cash plays. That was gone by late December at the latest. I'm going to wade back in this weekend I think. My biggest issue has been timing. Contests on FD typically lock right about the time I'm getting my kids, fixing them dinner, etc. so I have had problems capturing the value revealed in that 30 minute window before everything locks. In November and December I could miss that value and it wasn't particularly fatal. It's a little more critical now, because as you've noted scores are higher.

 
I'm not sure if scores are higher or not - I don't track that because I don't care. If true, I would guess that scores become higher with more injuries and days off around the league which gives more cheap guys in special situations.

I had a down January but rebounded the past week.

I am 100% in the same boat as @Tennessee with dinner, kids, etc... I've missed way too many 'your guy is OUT' messages which totally peeves me off. I'm trying to remember to set my timer at 15 minutes before tip to have a quick ROTO glance but I still f'ing forget!

I do think many people need to work on their betting strategy. I think too much % goes to -EV GPPs and people will dwindle their roll over time if they can't meet the impossible winning % needed to break even when adding in that -EV. Or people go ON TILT during a losing stretch! lol.

Sorry I haven't been as active here either. Tough time just to get things updated and posted daily sometimes.

 
MikeMan said:
I'm not sure if scores are higher or not - I don't track that because I don't care. If true, I would guess that scores become higher with more injuries and days off around the league which gives more cheap guys in special situations.

I had a down January but rebounded the past week.

I am 100% in the same boat as @Tennessee with dinner, kids, etc... I've missed way too many 'your guy is OUT' messages which totally peeves me off. I'm trying to remember to set my timer at 15 minutes before tip to have a quick ROTO glance but I still f'ing forget!

I do think many people need to work on their betting strategy. I think too much % goes to -EV GPPs and people will dwindle their roll over time if they can't meet the impossible winning % needed to break even when adding in that -EV. Or people go ON TILT during a losing stretch! lol.

Sorry I haven't been as active here either. Tough time just to get things updated and posted daily sometimes.
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I am pretty sure scores are up, I have actually quit basketball in the last week because of it. I can't count how many times this year I have had a score over 300 not even cash in the cash games. The cynical side of me thinks that the pros understand DFS are in trouble and they have created multiple accounts to get past the entry limits, and join the single entry contests more then once. They are trying to win as much money as possible in case DFS is made illegal and the regular people like us can't compete with that. I would be down money if I had not had one lucky night where i won like 1000 on one of the late night slates. The realistic side of me thinks, I am just not as good as I was last year. My husband is working crazy hours and hasn't done any DFS all year and we used to share info, it also leaves me with less time to research because he is working so much that I have to do everything else. Anyways good luck the rest of the year, I am out unless I get lucky and win some money on the free rolls coming up.

 
MikeMan said:
I do think many people need to work on their betting strategy. I think too much % goes to -EV GPPs and people will dwindle their roll over time if they can't meet the impossible winning % needed to break even when adding in that -EV. Or people go ON TILT during a losing stretch! lol.
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I think this is true. Many a night I've managed to hit some of my low-dollar 50/50s when I was just sure I would whiff. Those are totally different animals than GPPs and even $5-10 double-ups. I try to go 80% low-dollar 50/50s, 10% to mid-dollar double-ups, and 10% triple-ups and GPPs. I should probably push that to 85-10-5 though.

One thing I've enjoyed the last few weeks is watching NBA purely as a fan, not worrying about individual performances. I tend to immerse myself in DFS when I'm playing. I noticed it late in the NFL season too. If I don't force myself to take breaks, I fall prey to worrying about players instead of teams. I don't realize how much I miss watching games just as a fan when I'm playing DFS. That said, I really need to get back on the horse again. Maybe I'll give it a run on Friday. I'm going to Louisville to watch my nephew race BMX so I'll be out of the office all afternoon/evening. I'm just going with one of my brothers, so it should allow me time to devote to DFS if I choose that.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
MikeMan said:
I do think many people need to work on their betting strategy. I think too much % goes to -EV GPPs and people will dwindle their roll over time if they can't meet the impossible winning % needed to break even when adding in that -EV. Or people go ON TILT during a losing stretch! lol.
Click to expand...
I think this is true. Many a night I've managed to hit some of my low-dollar 50/50s when I was just sure I would whiff. Those are totally different animals than GPPs and even $5-10 double-ups. I try to go 80% low-dollar 50/50s, 10% to mid-dollar double-ups, and 10% triple-ups and GPPs. I should probably push that to 85-10-5 though.

One thing I've enjoyed the last few weeks is watching NBA purely as a fan, not worrying about individual performances. I tend to immerse myself in DFS when I'm playing. I noticed it late in the NFL season too. If I don't force myself to take breaks, I fall prey to worrying about players instead of teams. I don't realize how much I miss watching games just as a fan when I'm playing DFS. That said, I really need to get back on the horse again. Maybe I'll give it a run on Friday. I'm going to Louisville to watch my nephew race BMX so I'll be out of the office all afternoon/evening. I'm just going with one of my brothers, so it should allow me time to devote to DFS if I choose that.
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I agree too, although I still love watching the games no matter what.

 
..and for what it is worth with the low traffic anymore, here's a copy and paste on today's writeup: :)

Atlanta – Splitter is out. He has missed 15 games this season. In the 12 Muscala has played he has averaged 7 more minutes but only 13 FD points so he is not worth considering.

Boston – Crowder is a game-time call. He has yet to miss a game this season. On the road @ CLE, the math is staying away form the Celtics anyway. Marcus Smart is anoption on the team averaging 24-35 over the L14 and L28 in about 27 minutes and could pick up some extra if Crowder is out. The best option on the team is probably Evan Turner. He has been trending up averaging over 6 more FD points over the L14 and L7 versus both the L28 and Year. If he gets to start AND gets more minutes, he would be a good option. @CLE is tough though.

Charlotte – The Hornets are taking a little less of my time with Al out a while now, Zeller back, Lamb back, and Lin ok. The most important piece is Walker who looks like he should also play today. I’m giving him, MKG, and Batum a small subjective subtraction for MKG, another offensive threat, being in there and all healthy. In the 2 games they have played together with MKG, Walker has scored only 28,26 and Batum 18,21.

Chicago – Shoot me if I put in Portis again. You have to if Pau is out, right? Recall Noah and Mirotic are out. One of the best and deepest frontcourts a month ago in the Bulls might be down to Gibson and Portis starting. If so, they would both be great values. Oh, and Butler was a late scratch infuriating the DFS world last game and is also questionable. With no Gasol, Butler would be a great play as well, but you have to be nervous about him being limited if he plays.

Here’s the math – In two games Pau has missed, Noah averaged 36 and he’s now out. Portis averaged 18 and would take the start, and Butler averaged a healthy 49 the hard way with a 23,76.

E’ Moore scored a 39 last game so the DFS world will jump on him. He’s had some other games with over 30 minutes where he didn’t do much so not a slam dunk there but probably as good a risk as Portis if Butler ends up missing.

For now, I am posting projections with only Mirotic out.

Dallas – JJB a small bump with Harris out. Keep an eye on DWill. JJB goes to 28 if he is out.

Denver – D.Arthur is probably out. There have been mixed results in the 4 games he has missed with smaller guys getting more minutes. Recently though, it’s been all Jokic who has 5 of the last 7 under not only $200 but under $150CPP. He’s gotten 25+ minutes in the last 4 games and only struggled vs UTA. With CHI frontcourt possibly a mess, he’s a very strong play today.

Indiana – Mahinmi to miss again. He has missed 8 games. In those, Turner is averaging 30 vs. his normal 19 with an average increase of 10 minutes. Hill 26 vs. 20 in +6 and Allen 19 vs. 15 in +2. In the L6 missed in 2016, Turner has averaged 34 in +14 minutes.

Memphis – Matt Barnes is questionable against NY. I think it would be smart by Memphis to not have him show up at all. Coach Fisher would be preoccupied on his cell phone trying to figure out where he is….or isn’t. LOL.

Miami – Tyler Johnson out. If you look at L4, Deng, Winslow, and Wade are up but Whiteside missed 3 of those as well. Green is back and maybe healthy – he is my favorite choice to uptick but the math isn’t showing it yet so I’m leaving it alone.

Whiteside came off the bench and put up a ridiculous 33 FD points in only 17 minutes last game vs. DAL. He’s coming off the bench again today and I would be too nervous to use any of these replacement type guys with such unknown minutes even against CHA.

Milwaukee – Mayo and Henson probably out vs. UTA, the #1 defense in the L28 by FAR! Don’t play a Buck today.

Orlando – Aaron Gordon was off his mark last game. That is going to help keep his cost down. He’s still starting and enjoying 10 more minutes per game over his yearly average. I’m leaving in a subjective +4 to put him at 25, still below his L14 and L7.

San Antonio – Duncan and Ginobili out. In 12 Duncan has missed, Marjanovic averages 20, LA 28, and West 19. They are about the same just looking at the 6 games missed in 2016. Math is not expecting any good plays on road @ DAL. However, those 2 account for 45 FD points per game so some of those points need to go to others. I think Kawhi may go 40+.

Sacramento – Rondo and Cousins probable.

 
- Boogie makes a lot of sense today, but seems like an implosion in SAC is coming. Will fade him as much as I play him today.

- 3 revenge games, Thomas, Afflalo and Rondo; I like them in that order.

- I really hope news on Melo comes soon.

- Harris is out for ORL, not sure who benefits most but his 30 minutes will go somewhere.

- Zeller is a really sneaky punt at center today for big GPPs. He has been getting minutes and SAC is weak defending the 5.

Have not finished any LUs yet, hoping to get some injury news soon.

 
DukeNukem said:
Hey guys, I am currently considering playing a lineup pretty close to this one: https://www.fantasysportsdaily.com/features/nba/daily-fantasy-basketball-2016-draftkings-nba-optimized-lineup-for-february-7/ , this website has hardly disappointed me in the past. I'm relying a lot on Horford, I hope he lives up to the expectations. Anyway, feel free to tell me what you think, any tips would be appreciated, good luck to you all today!
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Today they've got MCW and Mayo.

Mayo had a goose-egg last night and I thought they were splitting time.

 
Bri said:
DukeNukem said:
Hey guys, I am currently considering playing a lineup pretty close to this one: https://www.fantasysportsdaily.com/features/nba/daily-fantasy-basketball-2016-draftkings-nba-optimized-lineup-for-february-7/ , this website has hardly disappointed me in the past. I'm relying a lot on Horford, I hope he lives up to the expectations. Anyway, feel free to tell me what you think, any tips would be appreciated, good luck to you all today!
Click to expand...
Today they've got MCW and Mayo.

Mayo had a goose-egg last night and I thought they were splitting time.
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yeah this was a bad advice lineup

Mayo, Sessions, and Cunningham had 10 or fewer points

This is me when I first started. I'd put Westbrook, Curry, Cousins, and have garbage elsewhere figuring they'd make up the difference.

If I soundly beat someone head to head, this is about their lineup too.

Can't do that. Your cheapies gotta be thrust into minutes due to injury or somesuch bump in production.

If there's a coach saying a quality player has to come off the bench, that doesn't mean start the starter. It means the starter is a joke. An 8 min per game starter is just bait or something for DFS. Ya gotta notice Jrue getting 32 minutes.

It's not all that uncommon in hoops, over the years. There's been slot WRs in football that don't start. It's not that foreign a concept to consider. I think Monroe is another non-starter.

 
OK.  I think I'm finally going to wade back into the pool.  I didn't realize how burned out I was from DFS until I took a break.  It was supposed to be 2 weeks and has stretched to more like 4 weeks.  I'm refreshed and ready to go though.  Unfortunately, it feels like the beginning of the season for me -- I'm really out of touch.  I've watched plenty of NBA, so the basketball side of it isn't too bad.  What I haven't done is pay a lick of attention to performances of individual players analyzed against their FD salaries.  While that's not the end of the world, that generalized context is almost completely gone.  I mean, it's a lot more difficult to think to myself on that first pass on players "so-and-so is really a $6000 player, and he's priced at $5500 so he's on my list of players to at least initially consider".  I think I'll be playing really light the first couple of weeks back.

 
"I'm baaaacccckkkk," he says as he tepidly dips his toe into the water.  I'm firing a whole $5 at it tonight.  It's amazing how out of touch I feel with just a few weeks off.  I literally looked at nothing other than actual basketball games and an occasional box score for the last 3 weeks.  I don't even have a handle on injuries.

 
Just blatantly (and almost blindly) took Mike's work last night for a smooth 88% ROI.

On $5. 

I'm hot so proper money management dictates that I push $100 in tonight. I can't lose. 

 
There is no question that the DFS laws include the relationship of 'the less you bet, the higher chance you will win' into them. LOL.

 
I was excited to get to watch the Clips-Spurs late last night after the kids went to bed.  After about 20 minutes of game play, I just turned it off and went to bed.  We were all losers having to watch that abomination. 

 
So are we getting the band back together? :)   lol.

Starting to warm up here. Just need a little more motivation to get really rolling. 

 
Welp. I stayed with it to the bitter end last season, but couldn't catch fire like previous seasons, but I didn't hurt myself either. I'm definitely studied up and ready to go hard early this season. I just don't know how much I'll post here. I've posted about a dozen times on any topic in the last year, and I am coaching hs girls again... last time... my kid's a senior.

 
I'm totally back in. Just been piddling in the NFL the last couple weeks. I may know the NFL better, but from an entertainment perspective, daily on the NBA beats the NFL senseless. 

 
Won a ticket for tomorrow. How the hell am I supposed to pick a team out of 3 games for a 294,000 person tourney? Any suggestions greatly appreciated. 

 
You think you got a problem, I went a little overboard not realizing the tickets were for tomorrow and not the first real slate.  Ive got 40 freaking lineups Ive got to figure out.

 
T ATO... isolate three or four value plays and then insert the known talent on the slate. It's about all you can do with one entry. I'll post some thoughts about value plays tomorrow. 

NM... Hah, it's a good problem on a three game slate. My opinion, but it's been validated and agreed with by some very solid players. Small slates = multi-entry gpps. Big slates cash games. So 40 is fun. I have 30 placeholders and I am crafting 10 each based on three different scenarios I think could describe the night. 1. Cleveland blowout + Portland in a low scoring battle + GS blowout; 2. blablabla...

 
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I can throw a bunch more into it -- lots of open slots and it pays top 22.7%. Right now I'm going w/ Anderson, Hood, and Aminu as my value plays and building around them with the rest. The 1st 2 are on the road though.

seems like a ton of uncertainty about how points and minutes will play-out in GS. Could be value there if you choose correctly. I'm also thinking NY may score a ton against Cleveland. Lebron and his team's have been "cruise early" for awhile now. 

 
That is basically the core I used. First pass I filled in curry Kyrie Love Zinger around him. Still have two other lineups to fill tho. 

I'm sticking to the 3 max gpp (only one today) will see how it goes. 

 
Bailed early last season as the returns weren't there like the prior two. Will give it another whirl early this year and see how it goes. Think I need to reevaluate my strategy and get a bit more invested in cash games. It's tough though, once you've seen a few decent tournament finishes. Takes discipline. $14 in last night, $17 out.

I like the addition of 3 max/5 max entry tournies. I'm interested to see how these cut lines shake out relative to the others.

 
So today's values?

Frazier in NO while Tyreke and Jrue are out. Lawson since Collison out. Ibaka at $4800 will def be in mine. Might stay low vs. Miami also.

Capela averaged 26FD points in 14 games last year he logged 25+ minutes. Value C.

 
freeannyong said:
So do you play Russ or Harden tonight ? 
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why not both?

pg- westbrook lawson

sg-harden moore

sf-Gordon  hollis-jefferson

pf-ibaka kanter

c-horford

new at this so feedback wanted and welcomed. forgot to add that this is for a free gpp,no cash game so far

 
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this was pretty tough for me tonight

fd cash game lineup

ty/rwb

beard/barton

gay/rhj

ibaka/randle

capela

other guys that intrigued me that i couldnt fit in:

frazier, booker, nurkic

 
Just able to play late tonight. Here is my quick place holder. The more I look at it the less tweaking I think I need. Cash w/ a throw-in to a GPP just in case. No time to analyze for true GPP play. 

Westy/Frazier

Dipo/Batum

Civington/Wiggins

ZBo/Parker

Nurkic

 
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