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NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (2 Viewers)

Who is worse?


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Yeah, I agree. I was just trying to figure out why us ACC fans might be feeling like they're not primed for a Final Four run, and I think the reason is just that they haven't beaten an elite team since mid-January. They're certainly a very good team, no particular reason to think they're gonna lose the first weekend.

They're also an elite defensive team (23rd in offense, 6th in defense), and for whatever reason defense doesn't get a lot of attention unless you're doing it at snoozeball tempo like UVA or Wisconsin.
Define elite team.  Notre Dame is pretty damn good.  But if you're talking about the top 8-10 or so teams in the country, how many teams have beaten one of them since mid-January?

Gonzaga hasn't since December 3rd (Arizona).  Kentucky hasn't since December (UNC win).  Louisville hasn't as you noted.  Baylor hasn't since November unless you consider WVU elite.  FSU hasn't since beating Louisville in mid-January.  That's almost half the top three seed lines right there.

 
This post is so terrible I don't even know where to start.  I can see why books are having an "incredible" college basketball season if this is how people approach their talent evaluation.
This was more about commiserating with a fellow ACC fan about why we both have a vague sense of skepticism about Louisville than about talent evaluation or wagering advice. Still, thanks for your always valuable insight. 

Why, this contribution is on par with that time you spent two days in the NBA thread throwing a hissy fit at anyone who even suggested that LeBron James might possibly still be as good or even better than Steph Curry back during the early part of the 2015-2016 season.  Remember that?  You nailed that one.

 
Tobias, I actually respect a lot of what you post, but come on man.  You have to put about 1000x more thought into this than that.
I wasn't capping Louisville.  I was attempting to explain why someone who watches a lot of the same games as me had a subjective impression of the team that was similar to mine.  You're arguing a different subject then what was being discussed.

 
I wasn't capping Louisville.  I was attempting to explain why someone who watches a lot of the same games as me had a subjective impression of the team that was similar to mine.  You're arguing a different subject then what was being discussed.
I'm not arguing a different subject than what is being discussed.  You are attempting to support your "vague sense of skepticism" with an arbitrary and meaningless cutoff. 

 
I'm not arguing a different subject than what is being discussed.  You are attempting to support your "vague sense of skepticism" with an arbitrary and meaningless cutoff. 
Not really arbitrary and meaningless- I chose one month as an approximation of "recent" games, and KenPom Top 25 opponents as an approximation of "big" games. These seemed perfectly fine in this context since I was merely trying to ID the source of a subjective impression, not objectively analyze all relevant data. I obviously wasn't trying to manipulate the cutoffs to underscore my point; otherwise I wouldn't have chosen "KenPom Top 25 teams" when Louisville's best win over the last month was a home game against the 25th ranked team. I didn't try to attach any objective meaning to it.

 
Excited for the Wake v K-State match up tonight.  K-State gave Kansas a run in both games this season and they just beat Baylor in KC.  Huge Danny Manning fan and I like to seem him succeed.

 
I know that it's been shown that being on a win streak or just playing hot in general coming into the tournament is not a reliable predictor of tournament success.  I wonder if any analysis has been done on how playing the tough part of your schedule early vs. late in the season has any correlation.  

 
Scoresman said:
I know that it's been shown that being on a win streak or just playing hot in general coming into the tournament is not a reliable predictor of tournament success.  I wonder if any analysis has been done on how playing the tough part of your schedule early vs. late in the season has any correlation.  
63 (or 65) tournament games is a pretty small sample size.  There are more D1 games every couple of days during the season.  I doubt you'd be able to get any statistical inference that could be used in any meaningful way to predict tournament outcomes. 

I think you can factor recency into tourney selection and seedings but hundreds of other factors come into play once the ball is tipped.

 
TobiasFunke said:
This was more about commiserating with a fellow ACC fan about why we both have a vague sense of skepticism about Louisville than about talent evaluation or wagering advice. Still, thanks for your always valuable insight. 

Why, this contribution is on par with that time you spent two days in the NBA thread throwing a hissy fit at anyone who even suggested that LeBron James might possibly still be as good or even better than Steph Curry back during the early part of the 2015-2016 season.  Remember that?  You nailed that one.
"ouch"

 
Tobias: posts a bunch of idiotic things today and then decides to bring something up as a "burn" from a year and a half ago.  :lmao:  

Never mind.  There is nothing about your posts to respect. 

 
63 (or 65) tournament games is a pretty small sample size.  There are more D1 games every couple of days during the season.  I doubt you'd be able to get any statistical inference that could be used in any meaningful way to predict tournament outcomes. 

I think you can factor recency into tourney selection and seedings but hundreds of other factors come into play once the ball is tipped.
It's not so small a small sample size when you  go back several years and look at the data.

http://blog.bracketvoodoo.com/post/158321282577/momentum-is-a-myth#.WMhldW8rKUk

 
Anyone having issues with the NCAA March Madness Live stream?  Mine didn't give me any kind of a pass like prior years, instantly asked me for my TV provider.  Is that the case this year?

 
Indiana loses at Ga Tech in the NIT first round.  Crean wasn't popular in Bloomington when his team was winning.  If he gets the axe, IU immediately becomes the best open coaching job and Crean one of the top candidates for other openings.

 
Indiana loses at Ga Tech in the NIT first round.  Crean wasn't popular in Bloomington when his team was winning.  If he gets the axe, IU immediately becomes the best open coaching job and Crean one of the top candidates for other openings.
Brad Stevens is every IU fan wet dream (and not happening)

 
This is Wake's 33rd game of the year.  They've been practicing since October.  How can they be so inept on defense :shrug:

 
Not a lot of line movement yet. Nothing like the year I got on the plane with VCU at +2 and by the time I landed they were -4.  Cool story bro.  Fade Butler

 
If I were a gambling man...

I'd put some money on each of Villanova, Gonzaga & Kentucky.  They are 8-1, 9-1 & 10-1 respectively.  They are my 3 favorites to win the thing.

 
In The Zone said:
There have been rumors around these neck of the woods about a month ago that Frank Martin would be on Indiana's list as a possible replacement.
would probably make knight happy.

just kidding.

that guy is never happy.

 
Martin has been successful at both his head coaching stops.  He has a big buyout at South Carolina but that probably wouldn't be a deal breaker for any program that Martin would consider as a major step up from his current gig.

 
I know nobody cares about my bracket but it always tends to regress toward the chalk as Thursday gets closer.
I just have a hard time not going chalk this year. I feel like the #1 and #2 seeds this year seem to be much better than the field. The #3 seeds could make a run to the Final Four, but I don't really see anyone from outside the top 3 seeds not getting to the Final Four. Just seems like those teams are stronger than the rest this season.

 
I have to say the game I am struggling with is Kentucky vs UCLA. 

Where are you guys all leaning on this one as the experts appear to be all over the board?

 
Reportedly a seven year contract at Mizzou.  He'll need much of that to turn around a program that went 8-46 in conference during Kim Anderson's tenure. 

Cuonzo hasn't stayed in any one school for seven years since grade school (maybe).
He's been at his previous three stops exactly three seasons each.

 
He's been at his previous three stops exactly three seasons each.
I guess money talks but Missouri's move to the SEC has been really damaging to their basketball and football programs.   Frank Haith didn't help much either.

There were legitimate concerns at the time that the Big 12 was collapsing so Mizzou bolting had an element of getting while the getting was good.  But the move has probably hurt recruiting more than it's helped.  They're left with no conference rivals and with higher profile SEC programs gaining admittance to their base.

 

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