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NE Running Back Situation Thoughts (1 Viewer)

Defending Champs

Footballguy
I had a rash of injuries last year and was fortunate to pick Green-Ellis off waivers at the right time. He kept me in the hunt all down the stretch and wanted to see what thoughts from the Board were on this guy.

In 229 attempts averaging 4.4 ypc he tallied up a touch over 1,000 yards and the number that should JUMP out at you is the 13 TD's he put up.

Foster was the only RB to put up more at 16 and Mendenhall tied him with 13.

I do not see a player to challenge those numbers and really don't see why his attempts can't go up.

He is clearly lacking in his receiving skills with just 12 receptions on the season and 17 in his career. His receiving numbers won't go up a tremendous amount if at all.

Was 2010 a ceiling type season for Green-Ellis or can he find a way to get closer to a RB1 type production in terms of both yardage and TD's?

 
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I had a rash of injuries last year and was fortunate to pick Green-Ellis off waivers at the right time. He kept me in the hunt all down the stretch and wanted to see what thoughts from the Board were on this guy.In 229 attempts averaging 4.4 ypc he tallied up a touch over 1,000 yards and the number that should JUMP out at you is the 13 TD's he put up.Foster was the only RB to put up more at 16 and Mendenhall tied him with 13.I do not see a player to challenge those numbers and really don't see why his attempts can't go up.He is clearly lacking in his receiving skills with just 12 receptions on the season and 17 in his career. His receiving numbers won't go up a tremendous amount if at all.Was 2010 a ceiling type season for Green-Ellis or can he find a way to get closer to a RB1 type production in terms of both yardage and TD's?
Last year was definitely his ceiling. The Pats drafted two RBs this year and I see a more fluid rotation that will limit BJGE's carries to about 10-12/game. He may still see double digit TDs, but I think he'll see more like 700-900 yards.
 
I had a rash of injuries last year and was fortunate to pick Green-Ellis off waivers at the right time. He kept me in the hunt all down the stretch and wanted to see what thoughts from the Board were on this guy.In 229 attempts averaging 4.4 ypc he tallied up a touch over 1,000 yards and the number that should JUMP out at you is the 13 TD's he put up.Foster was the only RB to put up more at 16 and Mendenhall tied him with 13.I do not see a player to challenge those numbers and really don't see why his attempts can't go up.He is clearly lacking in his receiving skills with just 12 receptions on the season and 17 in his career. His receiving numbers won't go up a tremendous amount if at all.Was 2010 a ceiling type season for Green-Ellis or can he find a way to get closer to a RB1 type production in terms of both yardage and TD's?
I wouldnt buy him right now at his ADP of 5th round or so. It's hard to expect lead back numbers from any one RB on the Patriots.
 
I am a big fan. 347 career touches and zero fumbles, Belichick loves that about him. I think he will remain their 1st & 2nd down and short yardage guy racking up the lion's share of rushing TDs. I think he remains an excellent value.

 
i wish bill bilichick would run more gaget plays because he is the best mad scientist in the nfl and he would probably come up with some way for players who dont normally get to score to touchdowns in to the endzone which would be nice because then people who dont get to score a lot would be a part of the team and it would probably generate more comradarie for the team and make the regular RBs more effective

 
BJGE career...

37 games

329 carries

1397 yards

4.2 ypc

18 TDs

0 fumbles

Edit: that last number being perhaps the most important. He is a player I will draft with confidence.

 
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BJGE does everything he is asked to do - and more - but the thing that concerns me as a BJGE owner is that Belicheck is always looking to mix things up.

So he could have 20 carries in a grind-it-out affair, or 7 carries in a shootout.

 
BJGE does everything he is asked to do - and more - but the thing that concerns me as a BJGE owner is that Belicheck is always looking to mix things up. So he could have 20 carries in a grind-it-out affair, or 7 carries in a shootout.
:thumbup:Mid to Low RB2 - ceiling is High RB2. I really like BJGE - back when we saw a few glimpses of him in his first preseason games, I was all in in getting him on the field and getting Macaroni off the field. Finally, Morony is gone, and BJGE really proved how good he is. But that was with only 1 other dependable RB on the roster (Woodhead) who had completely different skill sets that BJGE and never really challenged him in touches, and 2 other RBs that Now, you have Stevan Ridely, Shane Vereen, and 500 other RBs on the team. BB loves his RBBC, and I would bet my chips that he is going to stick with that, especially with the (potential) talent available from the drafted RBs. BJGE will remain, generally, the starting RB, but I would expect Ridley to cut into some of his short yardage TDs and Vereen to cut into some of his yardage between the 20s. But, who knows!
 
Woof. I'd have to get him as an RB3 or RB4, and even then would be worried. The only reason he got the work he did last year was because Fred Taylor, unsurprisingly, got hurt in the 2nd game of the season. He definitely acquitted himself well afterwards, but I expect at least Vereen to get some work this year, and think BJGE has really low upside if taken anywhere inside the top 30 RBs.

 
When the Patriots needed to replenish a 5-11 team in 2001, they added free agents up and down the roster to fill positions and won a Superbowl. When it was clear the Patriots needed to replace Antowain Smith, they brought in Corey Dillon. When they had a miserable post-Branch season in 2006, with Reche Caldwell and co. leading the way, they went out and traded for Welker and Moss. When they ended the Ben Watson experiment, they added Crumpler, Hernandez and Gronkowski. When they had a miserable pass rush last year, they went out and got Haynesworth, Ellis, and co. This is what they do. They take a position of need and they aggressively replace it, they get competition, and they use the depth to turn it into a position of strength. I don't think they saw running back as a position where they have their 2011 starter. The book on Green-Ellis going into the season was that he was a mediocre, straight line runner. He overachieved those expectations last year when they dumped Maroney (and Moss) early in the season and brought in Woodhead. He ended up being reliable, but he was not creating offense. He was executing plays. Woodhead was a bit more exciting, and gave them some more quickness as a receiving back, but he really wasn't competing for carries. This year, BJGE will have competition for carries. There will be other options to lead the team in carries. I don't know who will excel, and I have some BJGE on my keeper teams, so I'd love for it to be him, but my expectations for a repeat season are low because he's just not a special talent, and the team showed through their actions this offseason that they agree.

 
'Chaka said:
I am a big fan. 347 career touches and zero fumbles, Belichick loves that about him. I think he will remain their 1st & 2nd down and short yardage guy racking up the lion's share of rushing TDs. I think he remains an excellent value.
agreed. it's not like they need barry sanders or christian okoye back there. But if you don't fumble, can run hard downhill and block effectively that has all the markings of a belly-chick guy.I own him in a keeper league at 8th round value and will be keeping him. Plus good odds you could get cheap flyers on the other rbs that back him up/make the team. One of the cheaper handcuffs for a passing team that runs a lot of draws in the red zone with good young TE's.
 
'We Tigers said:
Woof. I'd have to get him as an RB3 or RB4, and even then would be worried. The only reason he got the work he did last year was because Fred Taylor, unsurprisingly, got hurt in the 2nd game of the season. He definitely acquitted himself well afterwards, but I expect at least Vereen to get some work this year, and think BJGE has really low upside if taken anywhere inside the top 30 RBs.
I didn't realize he was on trial in Massachusetts.
 
Anyone seen Yudkin's take on the NE backfield this year? He generally says "Avoid" and it's good advice but wondering if there's any specific insights shared yet.

 
'We Tigers said:
Woof. I'd have to get him as an RB3 or RB4, and even then would be worried. The only reason he got the work he did last year was because Fred Taylor, unsurprisingly, got hurt in the 2nd game of the season. He definitely acquitted himself well afterwards, but I expect at least Vereen to get some work this year, and think BJGE has really low upside if taken anywhere inside the top 30 RBs.
I didn't realize he was on trial in Massachusetts.
If you're going to be the guy who picks on people's vocabulary/grammar, you should at least be right about it...

Here: :bag:

 
'bostonfred said:
When the Patriots needed to replenish a 5-11 team in 2001, they added free agents up and down the roster to fill positions and won a Superbowl. When it was clear the Patriots needed to replace Antowain Smith, they brought in Corey Dillon. When they had a miserable post-Branch season in 2006, with Reche Caldwell and co. leading the way, they went out and traded for Welker and Moss. When they ended the Ben Watson experiment, they added Crumpler, Hernandez and Gronkowski. When they had a miserable pass rush last year, they went out and got Haynesworth, Ellis, and co. This is what they do. They take a position of need and they aggressively replace it, they get competition, and they use the depth to turn it into a position of strength. I don't think they saw running back as a position where they have their 2011 starter. The book on Green-Ellis going into the season was that he was a mediocre, straight line runner. He overachieved those expectations last year when they dumped Maroney (and Moss) early in the season and brought in Woodhead. He ended up being reliable, but he was not creating offense. He was executing plays. Woodhead was a bit more exciting, and gave them some more quickness as a receiving back, but he really wasn't competing for carries. This year, BJGE will have competition for carries. There will be other options to lead the team in carries. I don't know who will excel, and I have some BJGE on my keeper teams, so I'd love for it to be him, but my expectations for a repeat season are low because he's just not a special talent, and the team showed through their actions this offseason that they agree.
I'm not sure those two bolded sections don't contradict each other.If the Pats take a position of need and aggressively replace it, why didn't they go after DeAngelo Williams, Bradshaw, McGahee, Snelling, Norwood, etc? Why didn't they use a 1st-round pick on a RB?

It seems to me that they didn't identify RB as a position of need, nor did they aggressively replace it. Neither Vereen or Ridley were considered "stud" RB prospects, and they definitely didn't sign any big FA's.

Another thing to note is the types of RBs BB uses. With the exception of his first year in NE, he has ALWAYS tried to have a "big" RB carry the ball most. Vereen isn't that type of RB, so you have Ridley as BJGE's competition for the lion's share of the carries this year. If I had to pick between BJGE and Ridley, I'm going to take the veteran who is coming off of a 1000 yard season, has shown he can protect his QB, and NEVER fumbles over the rookie who is getting a shortened off-season and TC, who hasn't proven he can protect the franchise in passing situations yet.

 
fwiw rotoworld

Rookie RB Stevan Ridley has "taken advantage of extended reps" in training camp, according to ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss.Though Ridley is a power back at 5'11/225, he's shown more agility than expected. He's a candidate for short-yardage and clock-killing work, and he has a talent edge on incumbent BenJarvus Green-Ellis. We're steering clear of the Pats backfield in redraft leagues. Aug 9, 11:54 PMSource: Mike Reiss on Twitter

 
This position is impossible to handicap right now because you don't know what the Pats have in Ridley and Vereen and Faulk's health as well as how much gas he has left in the tank is unknown...to say you think BJGE is a definite RB #2 or yesterday's news is something you can't back-up right now...Green-Ellis is a solid RB who will give you maximum effort and not make any mistakes...the coaching staff has confidence in him...he will be part of the equation this year but how big is an unknown...that being said if the rookies prove they can play and Faulk has another year left in him I can absolutely guarantee you they will get their share...if there is one thing that is a constant with BB it's that if you prove you can be productive he will get you involved...that is a constant with him...so, if you're trying to figure out what BGJE's value is (and it's almost impossible right now) your best bet is to try to see what's happening with Ridley (early word is he looks real good), Vereen (haven't heard much) and Faulk (no update there)...if I had to take one Patriot RB right now it would be Green-Ellis because you know what you have with him talent-wise but I would not want him in a role where you are relying on him to start the season...

 
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'We Tigers said:
Woof. I'd have to get him as an RB3 or RB4, and even then would be worried. The only reason he got the work he did last year was because Fred Taylor, unsurprisingly, got hurt in the 2nd game of the season. He definitely acquitted himself well afterwards, but I expect at least Vereen to get some work this year, and think BJGE has really low upside if taken anywhere inside the top 30 RBs.
I didn't realize he was on trial in Massachusetts.
If you're going to be the guy who picks on people's vocabulary/grammar, you should at least be right about it...

Here: :bag:
You have acquitted yourself well in this matter, destro.And there's Ridley! Yeah...I'm down with the guy who said he'd keep BJGE at an 8th round price, especially if you have some other good keepers, but as has been the case the last 3 years, it's probably going to be whoever's healthy with Woodhead in the Faulk role.

 
'bostonfred said:
When the Patriots needed to replenish a 5-11 team in 2001, they added free agents up and down the roster to fill positions and won a Superbowl. When it was clear the Patriots needed to replace Antowain Smith, they brought in Corey Dillon. When they had a miserable post-Branch season in 2006, with Reche Caldwell and co. leading the way, they went out and traded for Welker and Moss. When they ended the Ben Watson experiment, they added Crumpler, Hernandez and Gronkowski. When they had a miserable pass rush last year, they went out and got Haynesworth, Ellis, and co. This is what they do. They take a position of need and they aggressively replace it, they get competition, and they use the depth to turn it into a position of strength. I don't think they saw running back as a position where they have their 2011 starter. The book on Green-Ellis going into the season was that he was a mediocre, straight line runner. He overachieved those expectations last year when they dumped Maroney (and Moss) early in the season and brought in Woodhead. He ended up being reliable, but he was not creating offense. He was executing plays. Woodhead was a bit more exciting, and gave them some more quickness as a receiving back, but he really wasn't competing for carries. This year, BJGE will have competition for carries. There will be other options to lead the team in carries. I don't know who will excel, and I have some BJGE on my keeper teams, so I'd love for it to be him, but my expectations for a repeat season are low because he's just not a special talent, and the team showed through their actions this offseason that they agree.
I'm not sure those two bolded sections don't contradict each other.If the Pats take a position of need and aggressively replace it, why didn't they go after DeAngelo Williams, Bradshaw, McGahee, Snelling, Norwood, etc? Why didn't they use a 1st-round pick on a RB?

It seems to me that they didn't identify RB as a position of need, nor did they aggressively replace it. Neither Vereen or Ridley were considered "stud" RB prospects, and they definitely didn't sign any big FA's.

Another thing to note is the types of RBs BB uses. With the exception of his first year in NE, he has ALWAYS tried to have a "big" RB carry the ball most. Vereen isn't that type of RB, so you have Ridley as BJGE's competition for the lion's share of the carries this year. If I had to pick between BJGE and Ridley, I'm going to take the veteran who is coming off of a 1000 yard season, has shown he can protect his QB, and NEVER fumbles over the rookie who is getting a shortened off-season and TC, who hasn't proven he can protect the franchise in passing situations yet.
Green-Ellis 5'11 215lbsVereen 5'10 210lbs.....yet Vereen is much faster, quicker, and has better measurables.

That isn't to say Vereen will take over THIS year, but we aren't talking about Vereen as a Warrick Dunn clone here.

 
Green-Ellis 5'11 215lbs

Vereen 5'10 210lbs.....yet Vereen is much faster, quicker, and has better measurables.

That isn't to say Vereen will take over THIS year, but we aren't talking about Vereen as a Warrick Dunn clone here.
It was my understanding that Vereen is 5'9", and 203 lbs. He is obviously not Warrick Dunn, but when reading up (pre-NFL draft) on the draft prospects, most scouts referred to him as a "possible solid contributor as a third-down or change-of-pace back." He only broke 200 carries once in his college career, and is more likely to play the Kevin Faulk role in NE than to play the Corey Dillon role.As far as Ridley goes, he is showing speed, agility, burst, etc. That's not what is going to get him PT. Knowing the plays, hitting the holes, holding onto the ball, and protecting the QB is. And based on this article:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/798821-patriots-training-camp-report-thoughts-on-ridley-mallett-and-more

his pass protection isn't there yet. All of these guys have talent. All of these guys have measurables. What will get them playing time are the un-measurables, and we can assume Vereen and Ridley will have them; we KNOW BJGE and Woodhead do.

 
I don't like any of them. Unless you like to gamble, why even waste time with NE's RBs?
Because BJGE was RB 15 last year, and his current ADP is the 7th round in a 12-team league, Vereen is going in the 12th round, and Ridley is going undrafted in many leagues.I don't know about you, but I'd LOVE to get a solid RB2 in the 7th round or later.
 
I don't like any of them. Unless you like to gamble, why even waste time with NE's RBs?
Because BJGE was RB 15 last year, and his current ADP is the 7th round in a 12-team league, Vereen is going in the 12th round, and Ridley is going undrafted in many leagues.I don't know about you, but I'd LOVE to get a solid RB2 in the 7th round or later.
His ADP has been 5th or 6th round according to Fantasy Football Calculator. I'd still call the 7th round too high for him even if he falls to that level. You should be getting real starters with that pick, not guys who MIGHT put up starter quality numbers if everything goes right. He was only a solid RB2 last year when everyone else was injured. That's his ceiling this year, not his baseline. With all the RB talent this year there is no chance that circumstances repeat. Ellis MAY put up the same numbers, but he's got to outplay 4 other backs to do so. He's a real risk to put up nothing at all on any given week because he may not end up with significant carries.
 
I don't like any of them. Unless you like to gamble, why even waste time with NE's RBs?
Because BJGE was RB 15 last year, and his current ADP is the 7th round in a 12-team league, Vereen is going in the 12th round, and Ridley is going undrafted in many leagues.I don't know about you, but I'd LOVE to get a solid RB2 in the 7th round or later.
His ADP has been 5th or 6th round according to Fantasy Football Calculator. I'd still call the 7th round too high for him even if he falls to that level. You should be getting real starters with that pick, not guys who MIGHT put up starter quality numbers if everything goes right. He was only a solid RB2 last year when everyone else was injured. That's his ceiling this year, not his baseline. With all the RB talent this year there is no chance that circumstances repeat. Ellis MAY put up the same numbers, but he's got to outplay 4 other backs to do so. He's a real risk to put up nothing at all on any given week because he may not end up with significant carries.
I was using fftoolbox, which has his ADP as 85.89, but I see that fantasyfootballcalculator.com has him at the middle of the 6th round (however, it appears that is skewed somewhat because he was drafted as high as the 4th round, which is ridiculous).Regardless, you suggest that the 7th round is too high, and you should get "real starters" at that point. According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, in the 7th round, you would be able to get RBs like Addai, Stewart, P. Thomas, Torain, and Tomlinson. You are suggesting that they are "real starters?" Other than Addai (and he's questionable), I wouldn't want any of the others as my RB2.Assuming you have the 6th pick in a 12-team league, you could go like this:1.6-Charles, Rice, McCoy, or Mendenhall <RB1>2.6-Fitzgerald or Nicks <WR1>3.6-M Austin or R Wayne (if they fall a few spots) OR Rivers, P Manning, or Brees <WR2 OR QB1>4.6-Romo (if you went WR in 3) OR TB M Williams, D Bryant, or B Marshall (if one falls) <QB1 OR WR2>5.6-Witten or V Davis <TE1> 6.6-Collie, Manningham, Britt <WR3>7.6-Green-Ellis (RB2)Assuming Green-Ellis falls to the 7th, all other ADP's are based on fantasy football calculator. You then back up BJGE with later RBs like Jacobs, Tolbert, Ryan Williams, etc & pick up Vereen/Ridley (whichever one you feel is the "handcuff"), and that's a pretty solid (IMO) starting lineup.Because of his ADP, Green-Ellis has value. I would expect him to get about 200-225 carries, between 875-1000 yards, and approaching 10 TDs. If I had the rest of my lineup as listed above, I'd take that from my RB2.ETA-all this is predicated on BJGE lasting until the 7th. I wouldn't reach for him, but if he lasts to that point, and you've drafted starters at your other spots, you would do well getting him as your RB2 there.
 
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There is probably a good chance that one of Ridley or Vereen doesn't initally dress on the first few Sundays, so that probably removes one initial competitor for carries. So BJGE is probably safe for the first few games, but after that if he doesn't perform well, who knows.

 
I don't like any of them. Unless you like to gamble, why even waste time with NE's RBs?
Because BJGE was RB 15 last year, and his current ADP is the 7th round in a 12-team league, Vereen is going in the 12th round, and Ridley is going undrafted in many leagues.I don't know about you, but I'd LOVE to get a solid RB2 in the 7th round or later.
His ADP has been 5th or 6th round according to Fantasy Football Calculator. I'd still call the 7th round too high for him even if he falls to that level. You should be getting real starters with that pick, not guys who MIGHT put up starter quality numbers if everything goes right. He was only a solid RB2 last year when everyone else was injured. That's his ceiling this year, not his baseline. With all the RB talent this year there is no chance that circumstances repeat. Ellis MAY put up the same numbers, but he's got to outplay 4 other backs to do so. He's a real risk to put up nothing at all on any given week because he may not end up with significant carries.
I was using fftoolbox, which has his ADP as 85.89, but I see that fantasyfootballcalculator.com has him at the middle of the 6th round (however, it appears that is skewed somewhat because he was drafted as high as the 4th round, which is ridiculous).Regardless, you suggest that the 7th round is too high, and you should get "real starters" at that point. According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, in the 7th round, you would be able to get RBs like Addai, Stewart, P. Thomas, Torain, and Tomlinson. You are suggesting that they are "real starters?" Other than Addai (and he's questionable), I wouldn't want any of the others as my RB2.

Assuming you have the 6th pick in a 12-team league, you could go like this:

1.6-Charles, Rice, McCoy, or Mendenhall <RB1>

2.6-Fitzgerald or Nicks <WR1>

3.6-M Austin or R Wayne (if they fall a few spots) OR Rivers, P Manning, or Brees <WR2 OR QB1>

4.6-Romo (if you went WR in 3) OR TB M Williams, D Bryant, or B Marshall (if one falls) <QB1 OR WR2>

5.6-Witten or V Davis <TE1>

6.6-Collie, Manningham, Britt <WR3>

7.6-Green-Ellis (RB2)

Assuming Green-Ellis falls to the 7th, all other ADP's are based on fantasy football calculator. You then back up BJGE with later RBs like Jacobs, Tolbert, Ryan Williams, etc & pick up Vereen/Ridley (whichever one you feel is the "handcuff"), and that's a pretty solid (IMO) starting lineup.

Because of his ADP, Green-Ellis has value. I would expect him to get about 200-225 carries, between 875-1000 yards, and approaching 10 TDs. If I had the rest of my lineup as listed above, I'd take that from my RB2.

ETA-all this is predicated on BJGE lasting until the 7th. I wouldn't reach for him, but if he lasts to that point, and you've drafted starters at your other spots, you would do well getting him as your RB2 there.
I would not consider that a good draft for you. You ignored RB for way too long and got a lousy RB with potential to do nothing for the whole season. That's a terrible strategy. Draft your second RB earlier and bump down your TE, WR, or QB.Dealing with the actual ADP right now, it's not even a close competition.

63 6.02 Daniel Thomas RB MIA 62.3 8.3 4.04 8.04 587

64 6.03 Matt Ryan QB ATL 63.0 10.0 4.01 8.04 530

65 6.06 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB NE 66.0 8.7 4.07 8.12 510

66 6.06 Austin Collie WR IND 66.3 7.5 4.10 8.09 615

67 6.08 Sidney Rice WR SEA 68.4 7.8 4.12 8.08 457

68 6.09 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 68.9 7.8 4.12 8.06 618

69 6.09 Mario Manningham WR NYG 69.4 8.3 4.11 9.09 637

I'd rather take any one of the players in the block surrounding Green-Ellis. Ryan is a starting QB. Collie, Rick, and Mannigham are starting WRs. Thomas and Lynch are the current starters for their teams with far less competition than Ellis. Those are all real starters. Ellis is not. He's a potential starter with upside of a RB2, and tremendous downside.

At your guess of 7th round ADP:

75 7.03 Joseph Addai RB IND 74.6 8.0 5.05 8.12 631

77 7.06 Julio Jones WR ATL 78.5 9.0 5.07 9.08 618

79 7.07 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 79.2 8.0 5.10 9.06 469

81 7.12 Josh Freeman QB TB 83.6 12.2 5.03 10.07 501

I'd still rather have any of those guys. You can make arguments for Addai and Stewart, but they are more likely to get consistant carries than Ellis. But I'd be much more keen on Julio Jones or Josh Freeman at that point. Those are much better value picks than Ellis in the 7th. But the bottom line is that any who drafts only 1 RB in the first 6 rounds is putting themself in a position to fail. There is going to be a quality RB between rounds 1 and 6 that you will want to take. Your draft example is a guide on what not to do.

 
I don't like any of them. Unless you like to gamble, why even waste time with NE's RBs?
Because BJGE was RB 15 last year, and his current ADP is the 7th round in a 12-team league, Vereen is going in the 12th round, and Ridley is going undrafted in many leagues.I don't know about you, but I'd LOVE to get a solid RB2 in the 7th round or later.
His ADP has been 5th or 6th round according to Fantasy Football Calculator. I'd still call the 7th round too high for him even if he falls to that level. You should be getting real starters with that pick, not guys who MIGHT put up starter quality numbers if everything goes right. He was only a solid RB2 last year when everyone else was injured. That's his ceiling this year, not his baseline. With all the RB talent this year there is no chance that circumstances repeat. Ellis MAY put up the same numbers, but he's got to outplay 4 other backs to do so. He's a real risk to put up nothing at all on any given week because he may not end up with significant carries.
I was using fftoolbox, which has his ADP as 85.89, but I see that fantasyfootballcalculator.com has him at the middle of the 6th round (however, it appears that is skewed somewhat because he was drafted as high as the 4th round, which is ridiculous).Regardless, you suggest that the 7th round is too high, and you should get "real starters" at that point. According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, in the 7th round, you would be able to get RBs like Addai, Stewart, P. Thomas, Torain, and Tomlinson. You are suggesting that they are "real starters?" Other than Addai (and he's questionable), I wouldn't want any of the others as my RB2.

Assuming you have the 6th pick in a 12-team league, you could go like this:

1.6-Charles, Rice, McCoy, or Mendenhall <RB1>

2.6-Fitzgerald or Nicks <WR1>

3.6-M Austin or R Wayne (if they fall a few spots) OR Rivers, P Manning, or Brees <WR2 OR QB1>

4.6-Romo (if you went WR in 3) OR TB M Williams, D Bryant, or B Marshall (if one falls) <QB1 OR WR2>

5.6-Witten or V Davis <TE1>

6.6-Collie, Manningham, Britt <WR3>

7.6-Green-Ellis (RB2)

Assuming Green-Ellis falls to the 7th, all other ADP's are based on fantasy football calculator. You then back up BJGE with later RBs like Jacobs, Tolbert, Ryan Williams, etc & pick up Vereen/Ridley (whichever one you feel is the "handcuff"), and that's a pretty solid (IMO) starting lineup.

Because of his ADP, Green-Ellis has value. I would expect him to get about 200-225 carries, between 875-1000 yards, and approaching 10 TDs. If I had the rest of my lineup as listed above, I'd take that from my RB2.

ETA-all this is predicated on BJGE lasting until the 7th. I wouldn't reach for him, but if he lasts to that point, and you've drafted starters at your other spots, you would do well getting him as your RB2 there.
I would not consider that a good draft for you. You ignored RB for way too long and got a lousy RB with potential to do nothing for the whole season. That's a terrible strategy. Draft your second RB earlier and bump down your TE, WR, or QB.Dealing with the actual ADP right now, it's not even a close competition.

63 6.02 Daniel Thomas RB MIA 62.3 8.3 4.04 8.04 587

64 6.03 Matt Ryan QB ATL 63.0 10.0 4.01 8.04 530

65 6.06 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB NE 66.0 8.7 4.07 8.12 510

66 6.06 Austin Collie WR IND 66.3 7.5 4.10 8.09 615

67 6.08 Sidney Rice WR SEA 68.4 7.8 4.12 8.08 457

68 6.09 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 68.9 7.8 4.12 8.06 618

69 6.09 Mario Manningham WR NYG 69.4 8.3 4.11 9.09 637

I'd rather take any one of the players in the block surrounding Green-Ellis. Ryan is a starting QB. Collie, Rick, and Mannigham are starting WRs. Thomas and Lynch are the current starters for their teams with far less competition than Ellis. Those are all real starters. Ellis is not. He's a potential starter with upside of a RB2, and tremendous downside.

At your guess of 7th round ADP:

75 7.03 Joseph Addai RB IND 74.6 8.0 5.05 8.12 631

77 7.06 Julio Jones WR ATL 78.5 9.0 5.07 9.08 618

79 7.07 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 79.2 8.0 5.10 9.06 469

81 7.12 Josh Freeman QB TB 83.6 12.2 5.03 10.07 501

I'd still rather have any of those guys. You can make arguments for Addai and Stewart, but they are more likely to get consistant carries than Ellis. But I'd be much more keen on Julio Jones or Josh Freeman at that point. Those are much better value picks than Ellis in the 7th. But the bottom line is that any who drafts only 1 RB in the first 6 rounds is putting themself in a position to fail. There is going to be a quality RB between rounds 1 and 6 that you will want to take. Your draft example is a guide on what not to do.
Let me clarify. That isn't my draft strategy. I was throwing it out there as a possibility. I'd be much more comfortable with BJGE as my RB3, and wait on TE until later (I like the depth at the position this year). I used that "blueprint" as a way of showing that BJGE was a better starter (at RB) than other options likely to be available in the 7th round. My point is that BJGE will provide value, at the right ADP. In the 6th round, I'd love to get Manningham and I'd like Collie (but whether I'd take Collie over a RB would depend on my roster to that point, and what RBs were available). I likely wouldn't want to take BJGE in the 6th round. BTW, now that news of S Smith being traded to Philly & Collie being one of the Colts starting WR, I would expect their ADP to rise.

In the 7th round, if I needed QB and Freeman was there, I'd probably take him, as I like his prospects. However, I doubt he'd be there. In all 3 of the real drafts I've done in MFL since the beginning of the month, he's been gone by the end of the 6th round. I wouldn't mind Addai, but I have no interest in Stewart, seeing as he'll get about 40% (at most) of the carries in Carolina, barring an injury to Williams. And, while I like J. Jones potential, there is no way I'd feel comfortable with him as one of my starting WRs.

You don't seem to like BJGE this year, and that's fine. But to suggest that Stewart and Jones are more "startable" than him seems to be unrealistic. You say Stewart will get more consistent carries, but he will consistently get fewer carries, as he's going to be on the short end of the RBBC with Williams, and Jones is a rookie WR, with a VERY shortened off-season. While he "could" put up startable FF WR numbers, it wouldn't be prudent to bank on it happening, IMO.

 
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Anyone have BJGE's short yardage numbers from 2010? He seemed to be pretty effective at getting positive yardage last season.

 
Anyone have BJGE's short yardage numbers from 2010? He seemed to be pretty effective at getting positive yardage last season.
I don't recall the actual numbers, but IIRC he was extremely successful in generating positive yardage - very few negative carries.
 
An word on Vareen? I kind of like him to do something this year. Lot of talent there.

BJGE-no way he repeats

Shane Vereen-bigger splash than some think. He has speed that others lack.

Woodhead-Combination guy but will have large pockets of not much production.

Don't forget OchoCinco, Welker, Branch, Gronk, Hernandez, lot of mouths to feed on that team.

 
An word on Vareen? I kind of like him to do something this year. Lot of talent there. BJGE-no way he repeatsShane Vereen-bigger splash than some think. He has speed that others lack. Woodhead-Combination guy but will have large pockets of not much production. Don't forget OchoCinco, Welker, Branch, Gronk, Hernandez, lot of mouths to feed on that team.
The last "news" I found on him was his hamstring injury from a little over a week ago. I don't think he's practiced since then.
 
Wondering if anyone watching the game can tell how Ridley looks.

Hard to go off the stats - got a 1 yd TD, but not much in the way of average.

Granted it's just the first game and Brady isn't in there, but any thoughts would be helpful.

 
Looks pretty solid, like a young Marion Barber. He is actually more elusive than I was anticipating, he can make the first guy miss...what he's not going to do is take one to the house from 50 yards out.

 
his ypc doesn't look that enticing right now but if you take away his 3 carries from the 1 (2 resulting in TDs) he is averaging 4.36 ypc in the game.

Not too shabby

 
I'll admit I may be bias, because BJGE was a big factor in me winning my league last year, but the hate on him is just ridiculous. The Pats are a team built to win this year. To expect Vereen or Ridley to come in, in a shortened training camp, and pick up the offense to the point where Belichick feels comfortable enough to use them as anything other than an occasional breather for BJGE is kind of ridiculous.

Maybe if one of the guys exploded in their preseason performances, I'd buy an enhanced role, but until I see it, I'm not buying it. When you think about what it takes for them making to the jump to the NFL in terms of securing the ball, and providing blitz protection for Brady, and not making mistakes, I just don't see either having a big role this year.

Now, there's a reason they drafted these two. At the end of the day, Green-Ellis in terms of his talent ceiling is never going to be a top of the line feature back, and Woodhead isn't durable enough to step into an enhanced role. But I would be fairly surprised to see them hand the reigns over to one of these rookies this year, unless they're absolutely forced to (either via BJGE floundering, or injury). There's too much at stake for this team.

Woodhead is a steady 4-7 carries a game player, and primarily utilized in obvious passing situations.

And that leaves Green-Ellis 15-20 a game and getting most of the red zone carries and enhanced carries in clock killing situations. He doesn't have pull away speed or overly elusive moves, but he picks up consistent yardage and doesn't turn the ball over. At the end of the day, the Patriots don't need to gamble on possibly something more than that this year, and I wouldn't expect them too. And in the confines of this offense, there's no reason BJGE can't produce 900-1000 yards and double digit TDs again.

Until I see a shred of evidence from Vereen or Ridley to suggest they may be ready, I would expect nothing different.

 
The standard It's Early Caveats apply, but Ridley looks more like the real deal than he doesn't. I think in fantasy he only has real significant value if BJGE goes down, but I like the cut of his jib.

His biggest impact however might be as a TD vulture. This could completely rob BJGE of any value whatsoever.

 
This is why I like rookie drafts early. I'll never get Ridley where I could have got him before today. I need to watch the replay, but is JAX 2nd team defense just bad or ruty with arm tackles?

 
This is why I like rookie drafts early. I'll never get Ridley where I could have got him before today. I need to watch the replay, but is JAX 2nd team defense just bad or ruty with arm tackles?
Pretty bad. More out of position than anything. Some Pats scrub RB is running all over them now, but I'm sure they all just want to get home at this point.Mallett & Ridley have pretty much looked like starters vs. scrubs the entire second half.
 

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