Here's what I am leaning toward a week before the game. I already posted my adjusted scoring model prediction based on actual results from this year in the game thread (which predicted PHI scoring 25 points to 24.6 points for NE), and that shows me that this game should be close and neither team should win by a blow out.
Here are some things I uncovered that make me lean toward NE though, most of which tie in to a them of familiarity.
- When NE has lost in the postseason in the TB/BB era, ALL of their losses were to teams they faced in the regular season (BAL, DEN, NYJ, IND, NYG). On top of that, NE faced those teams multiple times in prior seasons as well. Overall, NE has gone just 12-9 in same season rematch games.
- The flip side to that is that they have NEVER lost to a team they DID NOT play in the regular season, going a combined 16-0 in those games (they did not play PHI this year).
- Historically, QB's going up against NE with BB and TB for the first time have not fared very well. I did not have time to assess all the QBs since 2001 in their first starts against the Pats. But for active QB's that were rostered this season, they won their initial meeting against NE only 18.6% of the time (Nick Foles has never played NE).
- Looking at all of NE's games since 2001, they rarely had multiple games without forcing a turnover. They currently have gone 4 games without a turnover, which is their longest such streak in that time. IIRC, only one other time did they go 3 games without forcing a turnover. In the few times they went 2 or more games with a turnover, they forced at least 2 turnovers in the game that ended their drought.
- In the post season, in games where NE won the turnover battle and had at least a +1 turnover margin, they have gone 16-0.
- The Gronk effect is real. NE scores an average of +4.5 ppg when the big lug is in the lineup. That alone could impact who wins this game.
Here's how I see things shaping out.
For this season, I am prepared to suggest the Eagles were a better overall team than the Patriots. But the better team doesn't always win. It would not surprise me if PHI has more yards of offense / fewer yards on defense, and somehow still loses. IMO, the Pats will make up for that on turnovers and special teams / field position. While we have grown accustomed to NE being the team that mounts the comeback and having their opponents fade down the stretch, I envision the script being flipped and NE being the one getting the lead and having the Eagles being the one to have to come back.
Early on, like in other Super Bowls, I see the NE offense struggling to move the ball but finally managing to score in the first quarter (0 points scored in 7 other SB's). In the first half, I see the Eagles with a muffed punt or a fumbled kickoff. I also see Foles throwing a pick in the PHI end. Between those, NE cashes in on a TD, PHI keeps them out of the end zone on the other, and NE gets gifted 10 points early on. 10-0 NE after a quarter even though they do very little to move the ball.
In the second quarter, PHI has a 10+ play drive and NE struggles on third down that chews up half the quarter to cut the lead to 10-7 NE. The Patriots respond with a quick drive and get some chunk yardage plays to answer 17-7 NE. Before half time, with limited time left in the half, PHI gets enough last minute yardage to make a long FG to cut the lead to 17-10 NE.
In the second half, NE has one of their patented no huddle, hurry up drives to score again to go up 24-10. The Eagles are able to move the ball when they are on offense, but stall in the red zone (a sack, a holding penalty, a drop, etc.) and have to settle for two FG's to make it 24-16 NE.
In the 4th, NE drives slowly down the field and can't get in the end zone but comes away with a FG to go up 27-16. PHI goes down the field again and gets a TD but uses more time than expected as NE forces the action into the middle of the field. NE 27-23.
The Pats get the ball back, get a couple of first downs, the Eagles have to burn their remaining timeouts, and NE flips field position and punts to pin the Eagles inside their own 10 yard line. Philadelphia is left needing 90 yards to get the game winning TD with less than a minute to go and no timeouts.They get about 60 of those yards and the game ends on the last play with a jump ball incompletion in the ends and NE wins 27-23.
Such a game script would meet all the conditions I set up initially (Pats record scoring or allowing 23 points, turnover differential, facing opponents they did not face during the year, first starts for opposing QBs, PHI out gaining NE in yardage and still losing). The Pats in this scenario would really only get two TD drives and a FG on offense (with 10 other points from PHI turnovers).
If I were to bet, I would take PHI and the points but I would take NE to win. However, I don't think the Pats are a prohibitive favorite (the line is too high), and IMO NE is probably 55/45 to win.
ESPN's FPI has NE winning 53% of the time. 538 has NE with a 58% chance to win and a 2.5 point favorite. Jeff Sagarin's Golden Mean method has it 31-27 NE. I haven't seen Accuscore yet but will add that when it comes out.