New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks Playoff Thread (1 Viewer)

[mad sweeney]

Think if someone from Seattle were trying to tell you guys that your Po' boys down there suck and we have this great food truck up here that does them "way more authentic". (As a side note I don't know, I'm trying to find something to be prideful about in NO but I've never been there and I suspect you guys don't care much for Mardi Gras past the age of 24.) (As a side note part 2, "Where Ya At Matt" is actually really damn good, although I can't speak to the authenticity.)

Many things were invented in New Orleans. I don't think Seattle came up with cheering.

You are correct...we didn't come up with it. We do it best though.

And nobody is gonna disagree with that. That noise helps y'all have one of the biggest HFAs in the game.

That's wildly inaccurate. People disagree with it in damn near every Seahawk related thread.

 

[Zigg]

This thread has gotten silly, but I want to know why Saints fans in here think it's going to take a miracle to win? Obviously it's a tough match-up, but it can be done.

1) Run the ball effectively - Seattle secondary/pass rush are too good, no need to play into their strength. Run the ball 30+ times and hope to set up some reasonable 3rd downs. Run on the first 3rd and medium to keep them honest. Seattle and Philly were very similar statistically against the run.

2) Play some D - The Monday nighter was by far the worst defensive performance of the season. Apparently being #4 in yards & points allowed means nothing. It meant nothing before the Eagle game, and it means nothing now, but the Monday night game was the anomaly, not the norm, for both teams.

3) No Turnovers - Pretty obvious, don't turn the ball over.

Some obvious football cliches, but people assume the Saints aren't capable of those feats. The national media is about 2 years behind when it comes to the Saints. They have the potential to be a very balanced team, and as long as Payton doesn't get pass happy, it should be a close game. If Payton gets pass happy, it's another whooping.

 

[Gadabout]

Think if someone from Seattle were trying to tell you guys that your Po' boys down there suck and we have this great food truck up here that does them "way more authentic". (As a side note I don't know, I'm trying to find something to be prideful about in NO but I've never been there and I suspect you guys don't care much for Mardi Gras past the age of 24.) (As a side note part 2, "Where Ya At Matt" is actually really damn good, although I can't speak to the authenticity.)

Many things were invented in New Orleans. I don't think Seattle came up with cheering.

You are correct...we didn't come up with it. We do it best though.

And nobody is gonna disagree with that. That noise helps y'all have one of the biggest HFAs in the game.

That's wildly inaccurate. People disagree with it in damn near every Seahawk related thread.

ok

 

[biju]

This thread has gotten silly, but I want to know why Saints fans in here think it's going to take a miracle to win? Obviously it's a tough match-up, but it can be done.

1) Run the ball effectively - Seattle secondary/pass rush are too good, no need to play into their strength. Run the ball 30+ times and hope to set up some reasonable 3rd downs. Run on the first 3rd and medium to keep them honest. Seattle and Philly were very similar statistically against the run.

2) Play some D - The Monday nighter was by far the worst defensive performance of the season. Apparently being #4 in yards & points allowed means nothing. It meant nothing before the Eagle game, and it means nothing now, but the Monday night game was the anomaly, not the norm, for both teams.

3) No Turnovers - Pretty obvious, don't turn the ball over.

Some obvious football cliches, but people assume the Saints aren't capable of those feats. The national media is about 2 years behind when it comes to the Saints. They have the potential to be a very balanced team, and as long as Payton doesn't get pass happy, it should be a close game. If Payton gets pass happy, it's another whooping.

Because it's a natural defense mechanism to say you have no chance and if you pull it off you get to feel that much better about it. The truth is deep down inside those same Saints fans are thinking they'll win this game. They just don't want to commit to it on a forum.

Also, I hope the Saints try to run the ball all day. That would certainly be playing to our strengths.

 

[ImTheScientist]

So who is IN/OUT from the last matchup from these teams? Here's what I have, and I'm certain I'm missing some from New Orleans so help a brotha out.

Seahawks:

IN:

Walter Thurmond

Percy Harvin(I would give this about 75% shot at happening)

OUT:

KJ Wright

Luke Willson(50/50 shot at making it back from a sprained ankle)

Saints:

OUT:

Kenny Vaccaro

Parys Haralson

Keenan Lewis(50/50?)

What's Lewis' and Thomas' status? Are there any players that didn't play 12/2 that are back now?

http://www.hawkblogger.comGreat article on that exact subject.

 

[Statorama]

So who is IN/OUT from the last matchup from these teams? Here's what I have, and I'm certain I'm missing some from New Orleans so help a brotha out.

Seahawks:

IN:

Walter Thurmond

Percy Harvin(I would give this about 75% shot at happening)

OUT:

KJ Wright

Luke Willson(50/50 shot at making it back from a sprained ankle)

Saints:

OUT:

Kenny Vaccaro

Parys Haralson

Keenan Lewis(50/50?)

What's Lewis' and Thomas' status? Are there any players that didn't play 12/2 that are back now?

Only update I have is them being tight lipped about Lewis injury

Gotta figure Lewis will play. He didn't seem to think he had a concussion, so if he can follow the finger from right to left he'll be out there.

News on Haralson doesn't look good (possible torn pectoral which would be a season ender) and Vaccaro has already been ruled out for the rest of the year.

 

[ImTheScientist]

So who is IN/OUT from the last matchup from these teams? Here's what I have, and I'm certain I'm missing some from New Orleans so help a brotha out.

Seahawks:

IN:

Walter Thurmond

Percy Harvin(I would give this about 75% shot at happening)

OUT:

KJ Wright

Luke Willson(50/50 shot at making it back from a sprained ankle)

Saints:

OUT:

Kenny Vaccaro

Parys Haralson

Keenan Lewis(50/50?)

What's Lewis' and Thomas' status? Are there any players that didn't play 12/2 that are back now?

Only update I have is them being tight lipped about Lewis injury

Gotta figure Lewis will play. He didn't seem to think he had a concussion, so if he can follow the finger from right to left he'll be out there.

News on Haralson doesn't look good (possible torn pectoral which would be a season ender) and Vaccaro has already been ruled out for the rest of the year.

With concussions you may not know where he is at for 24 to 72 hours. Further symptoms and issues can occur late.

 

[cacksman]

So who is IN/OUT from the last matchup from these teams? Here's what I have, and I'm certain I'm missing some from New Orleans so help a brotha out.

Seahawks:

IN:

Walter Thurmond

Percy Harvin(I would give this about 75% shot at happening)

OUT:

KJ Wright

Luke Willson(50/50 shot at making it back from a sprained ankle)

Saints:

OUT:

Kenny Vaccaro

Parys Haralson

Keenan Lewis(50/50?)

What's Lewis' and Thomas' status? Are there any players that didn't play 12/2 that are back now?

I'm no so sure Thurmond wins back his role. Maybe he gets back to his slot spot there, but honestly I think Lane tackles better anyway. And by all means, Byron Maxwell looks like he might make it four members of the LOB who get All Pro nods in 2014.

Well IIRC Thurmond has always been in the slot with Maxwell playing the corner. It was only when Browner came back that Maxwell went off the field. Thurmond is a great slot corner. Lane played well, but Thurmond is a much better all around DB and he will be an upgrade in the nickel package.

ETA: I agree with you on Maxwell. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see 4 players from the Seattle secondary make the Pro Bowl next year. Maxwell has been balling out, and has looked amazing these past 5 games.

 

[ImTheScientist]

So who is IN/OUT from the last matchup from these teams? Here's what I have, and I'm certain I'm missing some from New Orleans so help a brotha out.

Seahawks:

IN:

Walter Thurmond

Percy Harvin(I would give this about 75% shot at happening)

OUT:

KJ Wright

Luke Willson(50/50 shot at making it back from a sprained ankle)

Saints:

OUT:

Kenny Vaccaro

Parys Haralson

Keenan Lewis(50/50?)

What's Lewis' and Thomas' status? Are there any players that didn't play 12/2 that are back now?

I'm no so sure Thurmond wins back his role. Maybe he gets back to his slot spot there, but honestly I think Lane tackles better anyway. And by all means, Byron Maxwell looks like he might make it four members of the LOB who get All Pro nods in 2014.

Well IIRC Thurmond has always been in the slot with Maxwell playing the corner. It was only when Browner came back that Maxwell went off the field. Thurmond is a great slot corner. Lane played well, but Thurmond is a much better all around DB and he will be an upgrade in the nickel package.

Yup.

 

[Statorama]

1) Run the ball effectively - Seattle secondary/pass rush are too good, no need to play into their strength. Run the ball 30+ times and hope to set up some reasonable 3rd downs. Run on the first 3rd and medium to keep them honest. Seattle and Philly were very similar statistically against the run.

2) Play some D - The Monday nighter was by far the worst defensive performance of the season. Apparently being #4 in yards & points allowed means nothing. It meant nothing before the Eagle game, and it means nothing now, but the Monday night game was the anomaly, not the norm, for both teams.

Thanks for getting this back on track.

While running the ball effectively would be a major plus, I think the Saints can do some parallel things with the short passing game. It's HUGE that the Saints keep out of third and long. Being in those 2nd and 4's or 3rd and 2's really opens the playbook.

I'm hoping there's something on the film from the last 4 Seahawk games that the Saints can exploit defensively. As I noted earlier, Wilson's numbers took a drop the final four games. While they were tough opponents, hopefully they exposed something that Ryan can scheme for.

In the first game, the Saints dared Wilson to beat them while they focused on stopping Lynch. They stopped Lynch alright, but Wilson showed you can't take him for granted. Wilson is still a young QB, so hopefully Ryan can mix the coverages and blitz packages to throw him slightly off his game.

Wilson's running ability is a huge concern. You have to account for that, either by scheme or employing a 'spy'. That really hinders what you can do on defense, especially when Wilson isn't afraid to run at any time.

 

[cacksman]

So who is IN/OUT from the last matchup from these teams? Here's what I have, and I'm certain I'm missing some from New Orleans so help a brotha out.

Seahawks:

IN:

Walter Thurmond

Percy Harvin(I would give this about 75% shot at happening)

OUT:

KJ Wright

Luke Willson(50/50 shot at making it back from a sprained ankle)

Saints:

OUT:

Kenny Vaccaro

Parys Haralson

Keenan Lewis(50/50?)

What's Lewis' and Thomas' status? Are there any players that didn't play 12/2 that are back now?

Only update I have is them being tight lipped about Lewis injury

Gotta figure Lewis will play. He didn't seem to think he had a concussion, so if he can follow the finger from right to left he'll be out there.

News on Haralson doesn't look good (possible torn pectoral which would be a season ender) and Vaccaro has already been ruled out for the rest of the year.

Ok gotcha. From a purely selfish standpoint, I wouldn't be sad to see New Orleans to be on the safe side and not allow Lewis to play(probably a long shot). That secondary is banged up as it is.

 

[valhallan]

This thread has gotten silly, but I want to know why Saints fans in here think it's going to take a miracle to win? Obviously it's a tough match-up, but it can be done.

1) Run the ball effectively - Seattle secondary/pass rush are too good, no need to play into their strength. Run the ball 30+ times and hope to set up some reasonable 3rd downs. Run on the first 3rd and medium to keep them honest. Seattle and Philly were very similar statistically against the run.

2) Play some D - The Monday nighter was by far the worst defensive performance of the season. Apparently being #4 in yards & points allowed means nothing. It meant nothing before the Eagle game, and it means nothing now, but the Monday night game was the anomaly, not the norm, for both teams.

3) No Turnovers - Pretty obvious, don't turn the ball over.

Some obvious football cliches, but people assume the Saints aren't capable of those feats. The national media is about 2 years behind when it comes to the Saints. They have the potential to be a very balanced team, and as long as Payton doesn't get pass happy, it should be a close game. If Payton gets pass happy, it's another whooping.

Because it's a natural defense mechanism to say you have no chance and if you pull it off you get to feel that much better about it. The truth is deep down inside those same Saints fans are thinking they'll win this game. They just don't want to commit to it on a forum.

Also, I hope the Saints try to run the ball all day. That would certainly be playing to our strengths.

I really don't think any Saints fan is trying to delude themselves. We lost in Seattle even when you had a team half as good as the current one. Why would we predict victory this time?

Everything is Seattle's strength, apparently. Fact is two of the three teams that beat the Seahawks had excellent days on the ground and three others that barely lost (Houston, St Louis and Tampa) all had huge rushing performances. So passing didn't work for us and running has been the only decent formula against Seattle, so obviously we're thinking a ground heavy gameplan is the best choice.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I think they will spread that defense out again. The saints lbers are really slow.....especially Hawthorne.

Harvin is going to do big things Saturday.

 

[Statorama]

This thread has gotten silly, but I want to know why Saints fans in here think it's going to take a miracle to win? Obviously it's a tough match-up, but it can be done.

1) Run the ball effectively - Seattle secondary/pass rush are too good, no need to play into their strength. Run the ball 30+ times and hope to set up some reasonable 3rd downs. Run on the first 3rd and medium to keep them honest. Seattle and Philly were very similar statistically against the run.

2) Play some D - The Monday nighter was by far the worst defensive performance of the season. Apparently being #4 in yards & points allowed means nothing. It meant nothing before the Eagle game, and it means nothing now, but the Monday night game was the anomaly, not the norm, for both teams.

3) No Turnovers - Pretty obvious, don't turn the ball over.

Some obvious football cliches, but people assume the Saints aren't capable of those feats. The national media is about 2 years behind when it comes to the Saints. They have the potential to be a very balanced team, and as long as Payton doesn't get pass happy, it should be a close game. If Payton gets pass happy, it's another whooping.

Because it's a natural defense mechanism to say you have no chance and if you pull it off you get to feel that much better about it. The truth is deep down inside those same Saints fans are thinking they'll win this game. They just don't want to commit to it on a forum.

I'd obviously love for the Saints to win, and I'll be rooting for that outcome. But that Monday Night game wasn't an accident. It wasn't one of those "oh if we had only made that one play we would have won" type of games. Seattle is healthier and at home. They have an outstanding secondary that frustrates what the Saints like to do in the downfield passing game. I love my Saints, but let's get real, every simulation shows this as a Seattle blowout. That's why they don't play the games on the simulator though

 

[Statorama]

I think they will spread that defense out again. The saints lbers are really slow.....especially Hawthorne.

Harvin is going to do big things Saturday.

He's an X factor for sure. My big worry isn't Harvin himself, but his presence opening up things for Tate and Baldwin.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I really liked LT Terron Armstead in the draft this year but he is raw. Are saint fans concerned the clink will chew him up and spit him out? It's a large task for a rookie LT to go in there for the first time going against a great dline.

Is it a worry?

 

[Gadabout]

I really liked LT Terron Armstead in the draft this year but he is raw. Are saint fans concerned the clink will chew him up and spit him out? It's a large task for a rookie LT to go in there for the first time going against a great dline.

Is it a worry?

He played pretty good the last two games Dude will be an eventual beast.

 

[Statorama]

I really liked LT Terron Armstead in the draft this year but he is raw. Are saint fans concerned the clink will chew him up and spit him out? It's a large task for a rookie LT to go in there for the first time going against a great dline.

Is it a worry?

I'm not too worried about him. Good pass blocker and he handles stunts and blitzes well. Took over the position on merit, not due to injury.

My main concern with him is penalties. 3 in the last 3 games, and he's got a tough assignment with Clemons across from him.

Of all the Saints concerns, he's pretty low on the list.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Haralson being out is a big deal - Herring & Humber are no substitutes.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Armstead in for Brown is a plus. Wait 'til they start running screens behind him.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Here's another number for straw graspers:

No. 1 seeds are 7-9 in divisional round (post bye) in last 8 years.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Drew Brees entered this postseason with the second best QB rating in NFL history, between Starr & Rodgers, with Warner and Montana after that.

Anyone have the ability to find all time road playoff stats for QBs?

The record of elite QBs with top 10 defenses in postseason history is excellent.

No this game is no fait accompli.

 

[proninja]

Drew Brees entered this postseason with the second best QB rating in NFL history, between Starr & Rodgers, with Warner and Montana after that.

Anyone have the ability to find all time road playoff stats for QBs?

The record of elite QBs with top 10 defenses in postseason history is excellent.

No this game is no fait accompli.

I don't think anybody is saying it is

 

[Gadabout]

Armstead in for Brown is a plus. Wait 'til they start running screens behind him.

A 300-pounder should not be able to run that fast. Glad he's on our side.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I think Zigg's post deserves some unpacking.

There's been some humble pie served and Saints have to find some major fixes that aren't obvious to many fans.

For starters - A huge problem for NO last time was the inability to get manageable 2nd & 3rd downs. This started with the very first play. I'd like to see more Sproles and (wow) maybe more Ingram on first down.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Since we last met:

Saints crush SB fave Carolina at home

Sea loses in rematch with SF

Saints lose to Rams in StL, a team Sea was 1 yard from losing to in StL

Sea beats NYG in SB site NJ, but offensive performance is a tad underwhelming

Saints lose to Carolina with 20 seconds left in Car; dominating performance interrupted by monsoon

Sea loses rematch to Arizona in Sea - Wilson, Lynch, offense sputters

Saints destroy Bucs at home

Sea destroys StL at home

Question: is Seattle playing their best football right now?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

.... And are the Saints?

 

[Gadabout]

.... And are the Saints?

You should turn that into a movie trailer.

 

[Zigg]

I really liked LT Terron Armstead in the draft this year but he is raw. Are saint fans concerned the clink will chew him up and spit him out? It's a large task for a rookie LT to go in there for the first time going against a great dline.

Is it a worry?

It is a big worry, but it is a smaller worry than Charlie Brown was.

 

[Henry Ford]

I really liked LT Terron Armstead in the draft this year but he is raw. Are saint fans concerned the clink will chew him up and spit him out? It's a large task for a rookie LT to go in there for the first time going against a great dline.

Is it a worry?

He is learning very, very quickly. I know Trent Cole is way past his prime, but Armstead completely handled him last game. His feet are faster and more nimble than I've ever seen in an offensive lineman. Much like a corner, recovery speed covers a lot of technique failures.

 

[cacksman]

Here's another number for straw graspers:

No. 1 seeds are 7-9 in divisional round (post bye) in last 8 years.

That's a crazy stat.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Since we last met:

Saints beat crush SB fave Carolina at home

Sea loses in rematch with SF

Saints lose to Rams in StL, a team Sea was 1 yard from losing to in StL

Sea beats NYG in SB site NJ, but offensive performance is a tad underwhelming

Saints lose to Carolina with 20 seconds left in Car; dominating performance interrupted by monsoon

Sea loses rematch to Arizona in Sea - Wilson, Lynch, offense sputters

Saints beat destroy Bucs at home

Sea beat destroys StL at home

Question: is Seattle playing their best football right now?

1) You continue to interject your opinion mixed in with fact, trolling pretty hard right now which really isn't your style.....kind of feels dirty. Has it really come to that or is it insecurity showing up? I corrected your bias in the post above.

2) is Seattle playing their best football right now? They dominated their last game, its very possible they get hot and win out....you never know. Ideally you play your best football in the playoffs and not right before the playoffs, just as the Ravens did last year for example.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Here's another number for straw graspers:

No. 1 seeds are 7-9 in divisional round (post bye) in last 8 years.

That's a crazy stat.

Doesn't shock me. A lot of really good teams (#1 seeds) have made the mistake of shutting it down week 17, or maybe they don't have anything to play for and shut it down mentally. The hawks needed that game and played great.

 

[mad sweeney]

Since we last met:

Saints crush SB fave Carolina at home

Sea loses in rematch with SF

Saints lose to Rams in StL, a team Sea was 1 yard from losing to in StL

Sea beats NYG in SB site NJ, but offensive performance is a tad underwhelming

Saints lose to Carolina with 20 seconds left in Car; dominating performance interrupted by monsoon

Sea loses rematch to Arizona in Sea - Wilson, Lynch, offense sputters

Saints destroy Bucs at home

Sea destroys StL at home

Question: is Seattle playing their best football right now?

SB fave Carolina?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Since we last met:

Saints crush SB fave Carolina at home

Sea loses in rematch with SF

Saints lose to Rams in StL, a team Sea was 1 yard from losing to in StL

Sea beats NYG in SB site NJ, but offensive performance is a tad underwhelming

Saints lose to Carolina with 20 seconds left in Car; dominating performance interrupted by monsoon

Sea loses rematch to Arizona in Sea - Wilson, Lynch, offense sputters

Saints destroy Bucs at home

Sea destroys StL at home

Question: is Seattle playing their best football right now?

SB fave Carolina?

Ha, ok there was some unedited stream of consciousness there.

Yes - after Seattle - Carolina has been a very hot pick by many for the Super Bowl. Not really controversial I'd say.

Maybe I should not have said "crush": main thing is they won nearly every phase of the game on defense... until the last drive. Until they scored on the last drive with 20 seconds left:

- CAR had no sustained TD drives

- NO had nearly a 2:1 TOP advantage

- CAR had fewer than 10 1st downs, maybe 6-7 or so.

- CAR had no consistent success running or throwing the ball, except one breakaway run following a Saints TO just before the half.

 

[ImTheScientist]

per Hawkblogger:

https://twitter.com/hawkblogger

Interesting information for straw graspers....

-The Saints are 3-3 in their last six games, outscoring opponents 135-132. Seahawks are 4-2 in their last six games. Outscoring teams 152-72

-Pass protection will be paramount. Saints 3-3 when getting 2 sacks or less. And 2 of those 3 wins were by 2 pts.

-The Saints have caused just 4 turnovers in their last 10 games. Seahawks defenders have caused 20 turnovers in that same stretch

-The Seahawks allowed 59.0 rush yards per game over the final three games, also #1 in the NFL over that span.

-The Seahawks allowed 2.4 yards per carry the last three games of the year. #1 in the NFL.

 

[Henry Ford]

per Hawkblogger:

https://twitter.com/hawkblogger

Interesting information for straw graspers....

-The Saints are 3-3 in their last six games, outscoring opponents 135-132. Seahawks are 4-2 in their last six games. Outscoring teams 152-72

-Pass protection will be paramount. Saints 3-3 when getting 2 sacks or less. And 2 of those 3 wins were by 2 pts.

-The Saints have caused just 4 turnovers in their last 10 games. Seahawks defenders have caused 20 turnovers in that same stretch

-The Seahawks allowed 59.0 rush yards per game over the final three games, also #1 in the NFL over that span.

-The Seahawks allowed 2.4 yards per carry the last three games of the year. #1 in the NFL.

Of those stats, pass protection is the most important against the Saints. They can win without a strong running game (though I wish they'd stop doing it as often without one.). But protecting Brees is necessary.

Again, there was one big weak link on the line - Brown. Armstead has been significantly better.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Seahawks HISTORICAL pass defense:

http://www.footballperspective.com/

Putting the 2013 Seahawks Pass Defense in Perspectiveby Chase Stuart on January 7, 2014

in Defense, Statgeekery, Statistics
Still number one.
After 15 weeks, I wrote that Seattle’s pass defense looked to be one of the most dominant since the merger. With the regular season now over, and the Seahawks getting ready for their first playoff game, I wanted to revisit this question and slightly tweak the methodology.

We begin with the base statistic to measure pass defenses, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. Team passing yards and team passing yards allowed, unlike individual passing yards, count sack yards lost against a team’s passing yards total. So to calculate ANY/A on the team level, we use the formula (Passing Yards + 20*TD – 45*INT) divided by (Attempts + Sacks). The Seahawks allowed just 3.19 ANY/A this year, which was 1.20 ANY/A better than any other defense this season. In fact, it was so good that it enabled Seattle to easily post the best ANY/A differential (offensive ANY/A minus defensive ANY/A) in the league, too. The Seahawks 3.19 average is the 4th best average in the least 20 years (behind only the 1996 Packers, 2002 Bucs, and 2008 Steelers). But what makes Seattle’s accomplishment more impressive is the passing environment of the NFL in 2013.

When I graded the Seahawks three weeks ago, I defined the league average ANY/A in the customary way: the ANY/A average of the passing totals of the league as a whole. This time around, I decided it would be more appropriate to (1) exclude each team’s own pass defense when calculating the league average, and (2) take an average of the other team’s ANY/A ratings, as opposed to taking an average of the totals. In 2013, the other 31 pass defenses allowed an average of 5.98 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. That means Seattle allowed 2.79 fewer ANY/A than the average team this year: that’s better than every defense since 1990 other than the 2002 Bucs.

Next, I calculated the Z-Score for each pass defense. The Z-Score simply tells us how many standard deviations from average a pass defense was. The standard deviation of the 32 pass defenses in 2013 was 0.95, which means the Seahawks were 2.93 standard deviations above average. That’s the 4th best of any defense since 1950.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Since we last met:

Saints beat crush SB fave Carolina at home

Sea loses in rematch with SF

Saints lose to Rams in StL, a team Sea was 1 yard from losing to in StL

Sea beats NYG in SB site NJ, but offensive performance is a tad underwhelming

Saints lose to Carolina with 20 seconds left in Car; dominating performance interrupted by monsoon

Sea loses rematch to Arizona in Sea - Wilson, Lynch, offense sputters

Saints beat destroy Bucs at home

Sea beat destroys StL at home

Question: is Seattle playing their best football right now?

1) You continue to interject your opinion mixed in with fact, trolling pretty hard right now which really isn't your style.....kind of feels dirty. Has it really come to that or is it insecurity showing up? I corrected your bias in the post above.

2) is Seattle playing their best football right now? They dominated their last game, its very possible they get hot and win out....you never know. Ideally you play your best football in the playoffs and not right before the playoffs, just as the Ravens did last year for example.

I threw in the question of whether the Saints are as well right after.

I don't think both teams have since they both met, 4-4 regular season finish between the two of them.

I certainly don't mind some of your comments, or any comments from anyone. But let's start with Sea vs StL, I say "destroy," you say just "beat" but then go on to state Sea "dominated" StL. Distinguish "dominated" from "destroy"?

I can tell you that the Saints absolutely destroyed TB in their last game, dominated, take any sports metaphor you like. I'd say 269 total yards by SEA was not really a "destruction" or "domination" but I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to SEA there and overall I thought the two wins were an equivalent close to the season for the two teams.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

per Hawkblogger:

https://twitter.com/hawkblogger

Interesting information for straw graspers....

-The Saints are 3-3 in their last six games, outscoring opponents 135-132. Seahawks are 4-2 in their last six games. Outscoring teams 152-72

-Pass protection will be paramount. Saints 3-3 when getting 2 sacks or less. And 2 of those 3 wins were by 2 pts.

-The Saints have caused just 4 turnovers in their last 10 games. Seahawks defenders have caused 20 turnovers in that same stretch

-The Seahawks allowed 59.0 rush yards per game over the final three games, also #1 in the NFL over that span.

-The Seahawks allowed 2.4 yards per carry the last three games of the year. #1 in the NFL.

Good stuff.

I am going to pick two stats out that I think stand out for me:

The Saints have caused just 4 turnovers in their last 10 games. Seahawks defenders have caused 20 turnovers in that same stretch

That... is a huge problem. Actually a much of an issue as the 2nd stat is (and btw that's the kind of thing that takes teams to championships) the 1st stat is even bigger. Not only that, the Saints are not scoring or making any yardage with whatever takeaways they get.

The Seahawks allowed 59.0 rush yards per game over the final three games, also #1 in the NFL over that span. The Seahawks allowed 2.4 yards per carry the last three games of the year. #1 in the NFL.

The Saints cannot win this if they can't rush the ball somewhat. I would not want to see Stacy's 15/15 for Ingram & Co., but I would be very very happy with the 43/139 (3.2) by Az. I doubt NO can get the 33/163 (4.9) by SF.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Between the merger in 1970 and 2012, there were 68 regular season games between eventual playoff teams from the same conference where the home team won by a margin between 22 and 32. 17 of those games had a playoff rematch with the same home/away setup.

Hmm. 12 yays, 5 nays. That doesn't tell the story very well. Team Seattle is undefeated since Y2K yet only 6-5 before 2000. Also interesting is that every playoff loss occurred when the regular season game took place before week 9. The late 20th century NFL was so different that it's not even worth looking at. Well ####.

Bonus: Seattle blowing out two playoff teams by more than 25 points this year is rare. Several of the teams to do so went on to win the SB.

tl;dr The last six Saturday-like playoff rematches were won by the home team, and by an average margin of 11.33.

The 34-7 blowout suggests history is on the Seahawks side.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/1/6/5279202/34-7-and-what-it-means

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Between the merger in 1970 and 2012, there were 68 regular season games between eventual playoff teams from the same conference where the home team won by a margin between 22 and 32. 17 of those games had a playoff rematch with the same home/away setup.

Hmm. 12 yays, 5 nays. That doesn't tell the story very well. Team Seattle is undefeated since Y2K yet only 6-5 before 2000. Also interesting is that every playoff loss occurred when the regular season game took place before week 9. The late 20th century NFL was so different that it's not even worth looking at. Well ####.

Bonus: Seattle blowing out two playoff teams by more than 25 points this year is rare. Several of the teams to do so went on to win the SB.

tl;dr The last six Saturday-like playoff rematches were won by the home team, and by an average margin of 11.33.

The 34-7 blowout suggests history is on the Seahawks side.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/1/6/5279202/34-7-and-what-it-means

So this is the stat that was posted earlier:

ESPN post-WC Round special... since AFL/NFL merger... a team that was blown out in the regular season is 13-12 when they've gotten a rematch in the playoffs

Didn't occur to me but that's since 1970 so there's a lot of fluff and it doesn't state what it defines as "blown out".

I would agree that stuff before the 90s is kind of irrelevant.

Here's another point from your article that's important:

with the same home/away setup

That's probably a difference maker in the two stats. - I also think the earliness and lateness of some of those 1st games makes some of those comparisons pretty irrelevant.

I think these are the closest comparisons:

1st Winner/Loser/Year/Wk/1st Score/2nd Score

NE HOU 2012 14 42-14 41-28

DAL PHI 1995 10 34-12 30-11

So once you unpack it, not a lot there for the Saints.

Now a straw I did take comfort in is that SEA has already lost two rematches in the last 4 games. I will continue to hold onto that nugget.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Seahawks HISTORICAL pass defense:

http://www.footballperspective.com/

Putting the 2013 Seahawks Pass Defense in Perspectiveby Chase Stuart on January 7, 2014

in Defense, Statgeekery, Statistics
Still number one.
After 15 weeks, I wrote that Seattle’s pass defense looked to be one of the most dominant since the merger. With the regular season now over, and the Seahawks getting ready for their first playoff game, I wanted to revisit this question and slightly tweak the methodology.

We begin with the base statistic to measure pass defenses, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. Team passing yards and team passing yards allowed, unlike individual passing yards, count sack yards lost against a team’s passing yards total. So to calculate ANY/A on the team level, we use the formula (Passing Yards + 20*TD – 45*INT) divided by (Attempts + Sacks). The Seahawks allowed just 3.19 ANY/A this year, which was 1.20 ANY/A better than any other defense this season. In fact, it was so good that it enabled Seattle to easily post the best ANY/A differential (offensive ANY/A minus defensive ANY/A) in the league, too. The Seahawks 3.19 average is the 4th best average in the least 20 years (behind only the 1996 Packers, 2002 Bucs, and 2008 Steelers). But what makes Seattle’s accomplishment more impressive is the passing environment of the NFL in 2013.

When I graded the Seahawks three weeks ago, I defined the league average ANY/A in the customary way: the ANY/A average of the passing totals of the league as a whole. This time around, I decided it would be more appropriate to (1) exclude each team’s own pass defense when calculating the league average, and (2) take an average of the other team’s ANY/A ratings, as opposed to taking an average of the totals. In 2013, the other 31 pass defenses allowed an average of 5.98 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. That means Seattle allowed 2.79 fewer ANY/A than the average team this year: that’s better than every defense since 1990 other than the 2002 Bucs.

Next, I calculated the Z-Score for each pass defense. The Z-Score simply tells us how many standard deviations from average a pass defense was. The standard deviation of the 32 pass defenses in 2013 was 0.95, which means the Seahawks were 2.93 standard deviations above average. That’s the 4th best of any defense since 1950.

I am going to say that pass defense is a key to winning championships.

Take a look at that Jason Link article I posted earlier, Seattle compares very favorably with 5 past SB winners.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Now a straw I did take comfort in is that SEA has already lost two rematches in the last 4 games. I will continue to hold onto that nugget.

Completely different scenarios then the one we are talking about this week is the primary issue with that idea. Although if I were on the other end grasping for straws I can see wanting to hold onto that.

I think the hawks match up VERY well with the Saints. Of any team in the playoffs currently the Saints are the best matchup on paper for the Hawks.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Here's what I really don't like historically, more than the road games, more than the weather, the Saints have been terrible on the west coast for a while now and vs the NFCW on the road.

At SEA it's 1-4 last 5

The last road playoff loss to SF

At AZ 1-3 last 4

At StL 0-2 last two.

OTOH, Saints are still 2-2 vs the NFCW this year, albeit both wins at home - they have seen a lot of tape and NFCS teams almost qualify as honorary division members this year.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Now a straw I did take comfort in is that SEA has already lost two rematches in the last 4 games. I will continue to hold onto that nugget.

Completely different scenarios then the one we are talking about this week is the primary issue with that idea. Although if I were on the other end grasping for straws I can see wanting to hold onto that.

I think the hawks match up VERY well with the Saints. Of any team in the playoffs currently the Saints are the best matchup on paper for the Hawks.

Hm, Ok, I'll buy, but how so?

Both were early season blowouts, but is there anything aside from the assertion this will be a playoff game and thus Seahawks will be super hyper ready for this game?

(Will have to check in later).

 

[ImTheScientist]

Here's what I really don't like historically, more than the road games, more than the weather, the Saints have been terrible on the west coast for a while now and vs the NFCW on the road.

At SEA it's 1-4 last 5

The last road playoff loss to SF

At AZ 1-3 last 4

At StL 0-2 last two.

OTOH, Saints are still 2-2 vs the NFCW this year, albeit both wins at home - they have seen a lot of tape and NFCS teams almost qualify as honorary division members this year.

They were gifted the 49ers win imo.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Here's what I really don't like historically, more than the road games, more than the weather, the Saints have been terrible on the west coast for a while now and vs the NFCW on the road.

At SEA it's 1-4 last 5

The last road playoff loss to SF

At AZ 1-3 last 4

At StL 0-2 last two.

OTOH, Saints are still 2-2 vs the NFCW this year, albeit both wins at home - they have seen a lot of tape and NFCS teams almost qualify as honorary division members this year.

They were gifted the 49ers win imo.

Whew, don't really want to revisit that, but actually the 9ers were gifted that late chance when K'nick didn't get called for grounding in his own end zone. It is quite the other way around.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Now a straw I did take comfort in is that SEA has already lost two rematches in the last 4 games. I will continue to hold onto that nugget.

Completely different scenarios then the one we are talking about this week is the primary issue with that idea. Although if I were on the other end grasping for straws I can see wanting to hold onto that.

I think the hawks match up VERY well with the Saints. Of any team in the playoffs currently the Saints are the best matchup on paper for the Hawks.

Hm, Ok, I'll buy, but how so?

Both were early season blowouts, but is there anything aside from the assertion this will be a playoff game and thus Seahawks will be super hyper ready for this game?

1) Playoff game (I could stop here but won't because I know you want more)

2) The Cardinals game .... Cards had everything to fight for hawks had nothing at that moment. Even the 12th man was weak that game. The following week when the hawks had everything to fight for and the other team had nothing to fight for you saw the result of that. Typically the Rams would give them a much better game, season was over for them. Much like TB getting blown out by the Saints....same deal.

3) Niners vs Hawks..... advantage home team every time. Teams are very close to equal and are the 2 best teams in football. Its a coin flip....that loss against them in their house doesn't bother me. Its going to happen.

The other thing I would add is the 12th man is huge. Unless you have been there you have no idea. Its especially helpful because the hawks are a defensive team.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Now a straw I did take comfort in is that SEA has already lost two rematches in the last 4 games. I will continue to hold onto that nugget.

Completely different scenarios then the one we are talking about this week is the primary issue with that idea. Although if I were on the other end grasping for straws I can see wanting to hold onto that.

I think the hawks match up VERY well with the Saints. Of any team in the playoffs currently the Saints are the best matchup on paper for the Hawks.

I think the hawks match up VERY well with the Saints. Of any team in the playoffs currently the Saints are the best matchup on paper for the Hawks.

Ha, well yeah I can see why. Hypothetically the ideal for the Saints would have been (if they had gotten a bye or a 5 seed) was CAR or SF or even a GB or PHI winning in SEA clearing a path for the Saints. But what the hell, have to face it, have to beat the best to be the best - I kind of like they have to face what is supposedly a nightmare scenario. That's a major challenge to say the least.

But season long:

SEA wins that game in StL on the 1 yard line, if StL scores there, SEA is 12-4

The Saints had NE on the ropes three times, and gave up a late score with a seriously bad uncalled holding penalty - they were a snip from winning that one in a place that is even harder to win in than SEA

The Saints had CAR on the ropes, losing with 20 seconds left.

Missed FGs played major roles in losing in NYJ and StL.

Saints could easily be 12-4, or 13-3.

The teams are really not that far apart on a season long basis. The blowout stands as a clear statement though, no way to undo what was proven on the field (oh wait actually.... there is).