rockaction
Footballguy
Ding ding ding ding we have a winner
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**NFC Divisional Round - Bucs at Lions** (-6, 48.5) Kickoff Sun 3:00 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Ding ding ding ding we have a winner
Capella
Footballguy
Respectfully, the Lions haven’t had a game like this in 30+ years so I would expect tickets to be insane.
My family in novi is talking about going but I doubt they’ll shell out for it.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Battle Royale: Vacation v Event
Not great tailgating weather, mid-teens wind chill. I can't imagine they could possibly match the Rams game energy: Stafford's return, Goff's redemption, the first home game in 30 years, the first playoff win IN the city of Detroit since 1957, etc. I'm sure it will still be loud af but it will be a bit different, I think they'll be a little less intense just bc it's hard to sustain that level of excitement. Anyway, if I were back home, last week was THE game to see, I'd rather stay home and be toasty warm.
Still going to be a ton of local celebs and Lions alumni, should be a great atmosphere. There is just less to be invested in this week.
Lions are very healthy and so close to achieving something very rare for them (only one (1) Conference Championship appearance.) Should be a TCB kind of game but Tampa Bay is playing well and their defense has some really good players. Each round gets progressively harder but there are solid reasons why Detroit is a big favorite.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Going to be in Crystal River on Sat for Mrs B-Day, 50th
Not sure what the temperature will be in Detroit but warm enough in that dome
32 degrees being forecast in Sugarmill Woods down here.
Looking forward to the game on Sunday in St Pete-Downtown/Central, on the road rest of the week
Good luck and Go Bucs!
Bucs 23
Lions 21
Experience over Explosives on Sunday
Not sure what the temperature will be in Detroit but warm enough in that dome
32 degrees being forecast in Sugarmill Woods down here.
Looking forward to the game on Sunday in St Pete-Downtown/Central, on the road rest of the week
Good luck and Go Bucs!
Bucs 23
Lions 21
Experience over Explosives on Sunday
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
I think the Lions get 27+. Just a matter of whether or not Baker can match it.
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Got to love Todd Bowles being asked:
“Coach, looking forward to Detroit, um… the weather’s been a factor in some of the playoff games even for the most prepared teams. Today it’s 13 in Detroit which doesn’t compare to some of the temperatures it could get up to,” she waxed on. “Any special plans to acclimate the team to, not only endure, but perform in those kind of frigid temperatures should you face them in Detroit?”
Ironically, she mentions the most prepared teams because her question exposed just how unprepared she was. Detroit plays in, and has played in for 50 years, a temperature-controlled indoor dome.
Bowles tried to let her down easy but his face belied a bewildered and baffled expression as he answered her, “You do know we play indoors right? They got a dome. I don’t…” Bowles replied.
Bowles pulled it together and tried to make light of the moronic question. “No. Nothing planned. We’re indoors and we only have to be outside for 20 seconds getting off the bus going into the thing, so… we’ll be ok.”
Lions 31 Bucs 20
“Coach, looking forward to Detroit, um… the weather’s been a factor in some of the playoff games even for the most prepared teams. Today it’s 13 in Detroit which doesn’t compare to some of the temperatures it could get up to,” she waxed on. “Any special plans to acclimate the team to, not only endure, but perform in those kind of frigid temperatures should you face them in Detroit?”
Ironically, she mentions the most prepared teams because her question exposed just how unprepared she was. Detroit plays in, and has played in for 50 years, a temperature-controlled indoor dome.
Bowles tried to let her down easy but his face belied a bewildered and baffled expression as he answered her, “You do know we play indoors right? They got a dome. I don’t…” Bowles replied.
Bowles pulled it together and tried to make light of the moronic question. “No. Nothing planned. We’re indoors and we only have to be outside for 20 seconds getting off the bus going into the thing, so… we’ll be ok.”
Lions 31 Bucs 20
Terpman22
Footballguy
Lions roll 34-17. Tampa isn't good and Baker has thrown a lot of balls that should have been INT'd this year. Well, they catch em this game. Gibbs and Saint Brown go off. Goff looks above average, but after the game being so easy the question will almost certainly be "What can Goff do vs SF tho"
Wingnut
Footballguy
$1,186 is the average ticket price for the #Buccaneers vs #Lions game this Sunday at Ford Field.
This is the highest priced divisional game in #NFL history.
This is the highest priced divisional game in #NFL history.
The best hope for the Bucs is that they can keep pressure on Jared Goff and force him to turn over the ball. I think that the Lions will have the offensive scheme in place with quick passes to the backs and some Amon-Ra St. Brown crosses to keep the pressure away and dominate the game. Tampa and Mayfield may have some success throwing the ball, but not enough.
Lions 34, Bucs 19.
Lions 34, Bucs 19.
TartanLion
Footballguy
I think it’s a tight one, chaps. Feels like it’s just the way we are going to get this done. Tight nail biting stuff where the Lions resolve is tested and they pull through
Lions 28
Buccs 27
Or a repeat for the Lions Rams game 24-23
Lions 28
Buccs 27
Or a repeat for the Lions Rams game 24-23
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
At least this time you will get a few extra hours of sleep.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
James Houston activated.
www.prideofdetroit.com
Lions EDGE James Houston activated from injured reserve, could play vs. Bucs
The Detroit Lions have activated pass-rushing specialist James Houston from injured reserve, making him eligible to play Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
www.prideofdetroit.com
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
James Houston activated.
Lions EDGE James Houston activated from injured reserve, could play vs. Bucs
The Detroit Lions have activated pass-rushing specialist James Houston from injured reserve, making him eligible to play Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
IF he’s active (big if), probably only plays 10-15 snaps. But he had 2 sacks on 5 snaps v the Bills on Thanksgiving 2022. Explosive Sam LB rusher with insane bend, could absolutely impact the game.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
At least four virtual meetings this week I think for Johnson - two Friday, two Saturday.
The game plan prep comes first, the hay is never really in the barn bc they'll still make adjustment on Saturday night if they see something going back over the film. They both know the best thing they can do for their job prospects is to keep winning.
Both Ben and AG seem pretty locked in, they can only do virtual right now, and they have to do their job first. Johnson said his typical week is taking off mid-afternoon on Friday to pick up his daughter from school (the only day he gets to do that) and he's giving that up this week and going home later. They asked AG about his prep and he said "I'm preparing by just being myself. I've been through this before, any questions they're gonna ask i've probably got an answer, I've been doing this for 30 years. But it has to be that way bc I have to keep the main thing the main thing."
I'm losing count but I think Ben has 6 requests and AG 4. Johnson is considered the hotter candidate but IMO Glenn will be a better leader. Just different flavors, every team will have different criteria.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
The Lions target concentration is very pronounced against teams which are blitz heavy. Targets in the Week 6 matchup:
Consensus narrative: just put pressure on Goff and he’ll crumble bc he can’t make off schedule throws.
Reality: Everyone is sure that he's horrible against the blitz. That's just not the case. Sure, he struggles under pressure, but there's not a quarterback in the league that doesn't. Only one quarterback has thrown more touchdowns against the blitz this year and that's Brock Purdy with 15. Goff has thrown 13. Goff has also completed the second most passes in the NFL against the blitz.
The biggest thing that's going to help Goff is that he has his fully healthy offensive line out there with him. Here's what he's done in the eight game that he's had that group this season:
196-281 for 2,395 yards, 18 touchdowns and 3 turnovers. He completed 69.7% his passes and had a rating of 111.9 in those games. The Lions went 7-1 in those games.
Goff was blitzed on 47.4% of his drop backs in those eight games and he completed 70.9% of his passes for 1,270 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception. That's all league leading stats behind the blitz.
- ARSB - 15
- LaPorta - 11
Consensus narrative: just put pressure on Goff and he’ll crumble bc he can’t make off schedule throws.
Reality: Everyone is sure that he's horrible against the blitz. That's just not the case. Sure, he struggles under pressure, but there's not a quarterback in the league that doesn't. Only one quarterback has thrown more touchdowns against the blitz this year and that's Brock Purdy with 15. Goff has thrown 13. Goff has also completed the second most passes in the NFL against the blitz.
The biggest thing that's going to help Goff is that he has his fully healthy offensive line out there with him. Here's what he's done in the eight game that he's had that group this season:
196-281 for 2,395 yards, 18 touchdowns and 3 turnovers. He completed 69.7% his passes and had a rating of 111.9 in those games. The Lions went 7-1 in those games.
Goff was blitzed on 47.4% of his drop backs in those eight games and he completed 70.9% of his passes for 1,270 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception. That's all league leading stats behind the blitz.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
EPA / dropback for Goff is actually better when teams bring 5 or more v sending 4. The Lions were 9 of 16 on 3rd down in the previous meeting, mostly crossers to Amon-Ra. It really speaks to how well designed the offense is that they excel at converting 3rd & long despite having a QB who can’t make plays off structure.
Of course Gibbs missed that game & Monty left in the 2nd quarter. Jonah Jackson was out. Branch, CJGJ, & Houston all didn’t play in the first game. Not even the same teams so other than identifying tendencies that first meeting doesn’t mean anything.
Of course Gibbs missed that game & Monty left in the 2nd quarter. Jonah Jackson was out. Branch, CJGJ, & Houston all didn’t play in the first game. Not even the same teams so other than identifying tendencies that first meeting doesn’t mean anything.
Capella
Footballguy
My wife’s Michigan cousin texted me tonight that the Lions are gonna blow out the Bucs and so I sent him a link to Wikipedia explaining what the Super Bowl is. He said he’ll be upset if it’s not a rout and I told him I’d be way more upset with one playoff win in 30 years.
Anyhow, going off what Bobby Layne posted I think Bowles changes the game plan from last week and blitzes sparingly. Goff has chewed him up in the past by blitzing a lot and I don’t think they can cover St. Brown and LaPorta one on one. They’ll try to get home with Kancey, Vea and the linebackers and give the secondary as much help as needed. Now watch me be totally wrong and Bowles act like a madman. But I don’t think he can here.
Anyhow, going off what Bobby Layne posted I think Bowles changes the game plan from last week and blitzes sparingly. Goff has chewed him up in the past by blitzing a lot and I don’t think they can cover St. Brown and LaPorta one on one. They’ll try to get home with Kancey, Vea and the linebackers and give the secondary as much help as needed. Now watch me be totally wrong and Bowles act like a madman. But I don’t think he can here.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I’m jealous. Wish I had a Bucs fan I could trash talk IRL. But I take solace in the double portion blessing of having two pastors who root for the Cowboys & Eagles. Endless fodder.
On Detroit’s side, we have one of the best offensive minds in the game. Which stands in stark relief to our exceedingly stubborn DC.
Aaron Glenn got Von Miller-level production last year from The Problem (James Houston IV) - 8 sacks in only 92 pass rush snaps. Insane pressure rate. What does he do with him? Puts him at Sam LB and complains in his press conferences the player can't cover and doesn't play with discipline. OK then, sure. Why would you want a game changer opposite Hutch when you can instead have him get exploited trying to win one-on-one v shifty HBs and slot receivers. We'll see how they integrate him this week. Would not surprise me if he's inactive even though everyone is clamoring to get Batman (Hutch) a Robin-like partner.
Outside corners Sutton and Vildor cannot cover in man coverage but we run man the 10th most in the league. 4th worst in explosive plays allowed percentage. But maddenly, the explosive rate is even worse in Zone. They just don't have enough dudes on the back line, and outside of Hutchinson, have a hard time creating organic pressure. Their best bet is to probably mix and match coverage and overcome their deficiencies by sending blitzers. It's a dangerous gambit.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ X-factor is an unheralded linebacker
Facing a reeling Philadelphia Eagles team that didn’t have wide receiver A.J. Brown, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers knew that stopping the run would be immensely important to secure a victory.
The Buccaneers taking an early lead in the wild-card matchup surely changed the Eagles’ play-calling agenda, but Tampa Bay still managed to allow just 42 rushing yards on 15 carries. This was as big a reason as any that the Buccaneers are still playing while the Eagles head home.
Perhaps the most intriguing statistic to come out of Monday night’s game is the fact that former All-Pro linebacker Devin White played just one run-defense snap and 26 total snaps. A closer look at his production in the run game shows that this is no coincidence.
*among qualified LBs
White finished outside the top 80 in run-defense grade in each of his first four seasons, and he appears very likely to do so again this year. In fact, White owns a career 27.3 run-defense grade that ranks second worst of any linebacker who has played at least 100 snaps since he was drafted in 2019.
There is no doubt White brings solid pass-rush ability and makes some splash plays in coverage, but he’s never found consistency against the run.
Tampa Bay, despite some favorable traditional numbers, was struggling in run defense this season, woes that could’ve been the team's undoing. Coincidentally, things started to turn around in Week 13, which was the beginning of a stretch where White missed time due to injury.
White missed three games down the stretch and has played only 54 run-defense snaps since his return in Week 16. He’s been utilized in a manner that suits his strengths.
Over his past four games, White has rushed the passer 61 times, including 13 snaps against the Eagles, creating 10 pressures in the process. He also owns a league-leading 90.2 coverage grade over the past four weeks.
But if White has been excelling on passing downs, who has spearheaded Tampa Bay’s turnaround in the run game?
Look no further than former fifth-round pick K.J. Britt. The third-year man out of Auburn started playing significant snaps in Week 14. While he’s almost certainly not the next coming of Bobby Wagner, Britt has been playing the type of fundamentally sound football that the Buccaneers needed.
*among qualified LBs
Britt, on an admittedly small sample size, has played like an above-average linebacker. His overall grade leads the team, while his run-defense grade leads all players in their front seven.
He’s also been adept in coverage, posting a 73.3 coverage grade while allowing only five catches for 40 yards across 83 coverage snaps.
As a result of Britt’s emergence, veteran stalwart Lavonte David has played his best football of the season, as well. Add it all up, and you have a linebacking corps that leads the league, by far, with an 84.2 overall grade since Week 14.
Britt’s willingness to play downhill in the run game has been the key. It’s not flashy, but he’s rarely out of position — a common problem for Devin White.
Tampa Bay now has three linebackers who are being utilized to their strengths. The combination of Britt's run-stopping prowess, David’s coverage skills and White’s utilization as a passing-down specialist has given the Buccaneers more defensive options.
Those three against a fantastic Detroit offensive line, which leads the league in overall grade, is quietly a fun matchup to look forward to this weekend. If Tampa Bay pulls off the upset, those linebackers will likely be a primary reason
The Buccaneers taking an early lead in the wild-card matchup surely changed the Eagles’ play-calling agenda, but Tampa Bay still managed to allow just 42 rushing yards on 15 carries. This was as big a reason as any that the Buccaneers are still playing while the Eagles head home.
Perhaps the most intriguing statistic to come out of Monday night’s game is the fact that former All-Pro linebacker Devin White played just one run-defense snap and 26 total snaps. A closer look at his production in the run game shows that this is no coincidence.
Devin White Career Run-Defense grades
| Year | Grade | Rank* |
| 2019 | 46.9 | 81/100 |
| 2020 | 38.3 | 82/96 |
| 2021 | 28.2 | 91/94 |
| 2022 | 36.7 | 83/90 |
| 2023 | 30.9 | 87/89 |
White finished outside the top 80 in run-defense grade in each of his first four seasons, and he appears very likely to do so again this year. In fact, White owns a career 27.3 run-defense grade that ranks second worst of any linebacker who has played at least 100 snaps since he was drafted in 2019.
There is no doubt White brings solid pass-rush ability and makes some splash plays in coverage, but he’s never found consistency against the run.
Tampa Bay, despite some favorable traditional numbers, was struggling in run defense this season, woes that could’ve been the team's undoing. Coincidentally, things started to turn around in Week 13, which was the beginning of a stretch where White missed time due to injury.
Buccaneers Run-Defense Grades
| Metric | Weeks 1-12 | Weeks 13-WC |
| Run-Defense Grade | 52.9 (30th) | 68.9 (12th) |
| Run-Defense Grade (LBs) | 46.6 (32nd) | 74.2 (9th) |
Over his past four games, White has rushed the passer 61 times, including 13 snaps against the Eagles, creating 10 pressures in the process. He also owns a league-leading 90.2 coverage grade over the past four weeks.
But if White has been excelling on passing downs, who has spearheaded Tampa Bay’s turnaround in the run game?
Look no further than former fifth-round pick K.J. Britt. The third-year man out of Auburn started playing significant snaps in Week 14. While he’s almost certainly not the next coming of Bobby Wagner, Britt has been playing the type of fundamentally sound football that the Buccaneers needed.
| Metric | Total | Rank* |
| Overall Grade | 79.8 | 8th |
| Run-Defense Grade | 76.3 | 19th |
| Run-Stop % | 11.4% | 11th |
| Missed Tackle % | 4.5% | 11th |
Britt, on an admittedly small sample size, has played like an above-average linebacker. His overall grade leads the team, while his run-defense grade leads all players in their front seven.
He’s also been adept in coverage, posting a 73.3 coverage grade while allowing only five catches for 40 yards across 83 coverage snaps.
As a result of Britt’s emergence, veteran stalwart Lavonte David has played his best football of the season, as well. Add it all up, and you have a linebacking corps that leads the league, by far, with an 84.2 overall grade since Week 14.
Britt’s willingness to play downhill in the run game has been the key. It’s not flashy, but he’s rarely out of position — a common problem for Devin White.
Tampa Bay now has three linebackers who are being utilized to their strengths. The combination of Britt's run-stopping prowess, David’s coverage skills and White’s utilization as a passing-down specialist has given the Buccaneers more defensive options.
Those three against a fantastic Detroit offensive line, which leads the league in overall grade, is quietly a fun matchup to look forward to this weekend. If Tampa Bay pulls off the upset, those linebackers will likely be a primary reason
Capella
Footballguy
Yea Britt has been a godsend. Only took Bowles 3 years to realize White is terrible but at least he finally got there.
I expect Lavonte to be on LaPorta 90% of the time. It’s his specialty.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
They had a great battle in Week 6. Sam was dealing with an ankle that week and rn he still has a very sore bone bruise from his hyperextended knee, but should be a great matchup to keep an eye on.
Moonlight
Footballguy
With respect rooting for a GB-Lions Championship game
Grahamburn
Footballguy
That's how you're gonna beat 'em, Butch. They keep underestimating you.
I think this is gonna be the highest scoring game of the weekend. I think the Lions are a better team, possibly by a wide margin, but their defensive weakness (perimeter coverage) matches up perfectly for what TB does well. I think Evans/Godwin have big games and keep this game close.
However, I don't see TB doing much of anything to stop the Lions offense. I think Goff is rarely pressured and can just pick TB apart. Another week of healing for LaPorta could make a big difference, and ARSB isn't probably looking at an 8+ catch game.
Something like 28-21 sounds right to me.
However, I don't see TB doing much of anything to stop the Lions offense. I think Goff is rarely pressured and can just pick TB apart. Another week of healing for LaPorta could make a big difference, and ARSB isn't probably looking at an 8+ catch game.
Something like 28-21 sounds right to me.
Bucs also won't be able to run for more than 2 ypc and the lions will run wild on the bucs. Mayfield will make two or three mistakes that will make this game over in the 3rd
This just feels like a terrible match up for the bucs
Capella
Footballguy
Bucs run defense is really good. Lions will hit some shots to ARB but I don’t see them having a big game on the ground. Vita Vea is right there. Most likely outcome is Goff has a big day passing it.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Not to mention Michigan winning the college championship. One hell of a year for Michigan football.Hopefully thecan pull the upset to bring another home game.
When the Red Sox won their first WS in 86 years, they came back from down 0-3 to the Yankees. Would be just about right to see the first Detroit Super Bowl appearance be paved by having 3 home games as the #3 seed. If you’re gonna break a multi-generational curse, you probably need a miraculous alignment lol.
I think there will be more pressure and even better competition next week. Something that hasn’t been done ever for the
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I’d be down with a Bills-Lions SB. Two fan bases that would be cool to see win a championship.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Looked up the stats for both of the QBs - they both have somewhat quietly accumulated some decent to good career stats. Goff in particular surprised me.
Capella
Footballguy
Her cousin sent us one of those dumb maps tonight that shows who the country is rooting for with the lions-Bucs game and it was all lions and I said that’s because your poverty franchise has never been this far and my wife jumped in like one of those boxing refs when a guy is wobbling lol
2 more days to get the jokes in. I may not be invited up this fall if we win.
rockaction
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Where’s the flag?!
TartanLion
Footballguy
Feels like a pivotal part to this game. Very good run D versus very good Oline and tandem backs. If we can wear them down reasonably successfully there will likely be more balance to our O and more ways to attack Buccs. Which is where Ben Johnson excels. Still think it’s gonna be tight
Todem
Footballguy
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
At least y’all have Oklahoma on your side. The Packers are on an island I guess.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I saw that the Bucs defense was the worst defense in the league against the pass when the offense runs plays with motion. The Lions love to run pass plays with motion.
I already liked Detroit win this by 10+, and that just reinforces my belief.
I already liked Detroit win this by 10+, and that just reinforces my belief.
The Bucs are very strong against the run. The Lions need to be careful about trying to establish the run. Play action is great, but work on getting the passing game working, then work in the runs. If the Lions get too stubborn and insist on running first, the offense is going to get bogged down.
The Lions secondary has been way too susceptible to the big play. Tampa has good WR but nothing quite like a Jeffereson, Ceedee, Kupp or Puka. Still Baker will have e some success. I am not seeing the 6.5 points. This game will come down to the last possession.
The Lions secondary has been way too susceptible to the big play. Tampa has good WR but nothing quite like a Jeffereson, Ceedee, Kupp or Puka. Still Baker will have e some success. I am not seeing the 6.5 points. This game will come down to the last possession.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Lions ranked 29th RZ TD rate (66%) this year (according to Fox). Tampa can't afford any 3pt drives tomorrow.
Capella
Footballguy
Not to be nitpicky but Mike is in that category if you are including present day Kupp.
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