***NFCC - Washington 14-5 at Philadelphia 16-3***(-6, 47.5) 3:00 (4 Viewers)

[BladeRunner]

Here is what I wonder - can the Eagles offense be stopped? Eagles fans were mostly saying that the only chance the Rams had to win was if they won the turnover battle by like 2 or 3. The Rams actually ended up turning the ball over more and still was in position to win that game. Barkley doesn't seem capable of being stopped over the course of 60 minutes. However, is the rest of the offense good enough against 2 of the 3 remaining teams? I think they're good enough because of how strong the defense is. But the game yesterday was a little eye opening as I was expecting more domination. Of course yesterday might have been a little skewed because of Hurts's injury and the weather. Also I know they were moving the ball and then Hurts kept taking boneheaded sacks. But that's not a limitation that just disappears magically at this point of the season.

I bet on the Eagles up to now but I'm hesitant to bet them this week.

Eagles offense is pretty mediocre w/out Barkley. He's the difference maker. Hurts just isn't that good. or maybe, consistently good.

If the Eagles win, it will be because of Barkley. That's their only chance against the rest of the teams.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Here is what I wonder - can the Eagles offense be stopped? Eagles fans were mostly saying that the only chance the Rams had to win was if they won the turnover battle by like 2 or 3. The Rams actually ended up turning the ball over more and still was in position to win that game. Barkley doesn't seem capable of being stopped over the course of 60 minutes. However, is the rest of the offense good enough against 2 of the 3 remaining teams? I think they're good enough because of how strong the defense is. But the game yesterday was a little eye opening as I was expecting more domination. Of course yesterday might have been a little skewed because of Hurts's injury and the weather. Also I know they were moving the ball and then Hurts kept taking boneheaded sacks. But that's not a limitation that just disappears magically at this point of the season.

I bet on the Eagles up to now but I'm hesitant to bet them this week.

Eagles offense is pretty mediocre w/out Barkley. He's the difference maker. Hurts just isn't that good. or maybe, consistently good.

If the Eagles win, it will be because of Barkley. That's their only chance against the rest of the teams.

Maybe. Yet they are the current favorites to win it all so the combination of having the best remaining RB and defense clearly is huge.

 

[unckeyherb]

Here is what I wonder - can the Eagles offense be stopped? Eagles fans were mostly saying that the only chance the Rams had to win was if they won the turnover battle by like 2 or 3. The Rams actually ended up turning the ball over more and still was in position to win that game. Barkley doesn't seem capable of being stopped over the course of 60 minutes. However, is the rest of the offense good enough against 2 of the 3 remaining teams? I think they're good enough because of how strong the defense is. But the game yesterday was a little eye opening as I was expecting more domination. Of course yesterday might have been a little skewed because of Hurts's injury and the weather. Also I know they were moving the ball and then Hurts kept taking boneheaded sacks. But that's not a limitation that just disappears magically at this point of the season.

I bet on the Eagles up to now but I'm hesitant to bet them this week.

That was me that said the only way they lose is if Jalen turns it over 2+ times. He didn't and they won. Albeit, waaaay closer than I was expecting, but there were a lot of variables that went into that outcome. Jalen getting his knee bent backwards, the insane snow/ice storm, losing Quinyon early. If you told me that the Eagles would miss not one, but two xp's and give up a safety I'd tell you they lost. Saquon was amazing, but Jalen Carter saved their season-very Aaron Donald-esque.

The defense did what I expected them to do-limit LA to 20 points. There were also a small number of plays that went a weird way and really affected Philly's score. AJ dropping what 99 out of 100 times would be a gimme TD pass right before the half, Saquon's TD getting called back to the half yard line, the subsequent tush push TD getting nullified by a false start penalty (heard after the game the the D-line was simulating the snap count which should be a penalty on them, FWIW), the missed XP's. You get one of the AJ catch back and either the Saquon TD or the tush push and you're talking about the Eagles scoring 35 points. Get them both and its a 42-22 laugher. I know you can't take plays away, but for real I think under normal circumstances the Birds go over 30 last night.

I expect the defense to perform similarly to how they have for the last 15 weeks. They give up 20 points or less almost every game- in fact the only game where they gave up more was the last game against Washington-but that saw Jalen go out in the second drive and CJGJ get ejected. That was a weird one. I think Washington puts 20-25 points up.

Can the Eagles offense best that? I think so but it really depends on Jalen. I see no scenario where he doesn't play. But if he is limited in his ability to run (and thus remove that from the playbook), I think they will struggle. That affects the passing game and it certainly affects Saquon's numbers.

Too early in the week to know, but I am optimistic.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Here is what I wonder - can the Eagles offense be stopped? Eagles fans were mostly saying that the only chance the Rams had to win was if they won the turnover battle by like 2 or 3. The Rams actually ended up turning the ball over more and still was in position to win that game. Barkley doesn't seem capable of being stopped over the course of 60 minutes. However, is the rest of the offense good enough against 2 of the 3 remaining teams? I think they're good enough because of how strong the defense is. But the game yesterday was a little eye opening as I was expecting more domination. Of course yesterday might have been a little skewed because of Hurts's injury and the weather. Also I know they were moving the ball and then Hurts kept taking boneheaded sacks. But that's not a limitation that just disappears magically at this point of the season.

I bet on the Eagles up to now but I'm hesitant to bet them this week.

That was me that said the only way they lose is if Jalen turns it over 2+ times. He didn't and they won. Albeit, waaaay closer than I was expecting, but there were a lot of variables that went into that outcome. Jalen getting his knee bent backwards, the insane snow/ice storm, losing Quinyon early. If you told me that the Eagles would miss not one, but two xp's and give up a safety I'd tell you they lost. Saquon was amazing, but Jalen Carter saved their season-very Aaron Donald-esque.

The defense did what I expected them to do-limit LA to 20 points. There were also a small number of plays that went a weird way and really affected Philly's score. AJ dropping what 99 out of 100 times would be a gimme TD pass right before the half, Saquon's TD getting called back to the half yard line, the subsequent tush push TD getting nullified by a false start penalty (heard after the game the the D-line was simulating the snap count which should be a penalty on them, FWIW), the missed XP's. You get one of the AJ catch back and either the Saquon TD or the tush push and you're talking about the Eagles scoring 35 points. Get them both and its a 42-22 laugher. I know you can't take plays away, but for real I think under normal circumstances the Birds go over 30 last night.

I expect the defense to perform similarly to how they have for the last 15 weeks. They give up 20 points or less almost every game- in fact the only game where they gave up more was the last game against Washington-but that saw Jalen go out in the second drive and CJGJ get ejected. That was a weird one. I think Washington puts 20-25 points up.

Can the Eagles offense best that? I think so but it really depends on Jalen. I see no scenario where he doesn't play. But if he is limited in his ability to run (and thus remove that from the playbook), I think they will struggle. That affects the passing game and it certainly affects Saquon's numbers.

Too early in the week to know, but I am optimistic.

Thanks - very nice, detailed response! I think I also underestimated the Rams defense. They look like they’ll be a force for the foreseeable future (similar to the Eagles D).

 

[need2know]

Here is what I wonder - can the Eagles offense be stopped? Eagles fans were mostly saying that the only chance the Rams had to win was if they won the turnover battle by like 2 or 3. The Rams actually ended up turning the ball over more and still was in position to win that game. Barkley doesn't seem capable of being stopped over the course of 60 minutes. However, is the rest of the offense good enough against 2 of the 3 remaining teams? I think they're good enough because of how strong the defense is. But the game yesterday was a little eye opening as I was expecting more domination. Of course yesterday might have been a little skewed because of Hurts's injury and the weather. Also I know they were moving the ball and then Hurts kept taking boneheaded sacks. But that's not a limitation that just disappears magically at this point of the season.

I bet on the Eagles up to now but I'm hesitant to bet them this week.

That was me that said the only way they lose is if Jalen turns it over 2+ times. He didn't and they won. Albeit, waaaay closer than I was expecting, but there were a lot of variables that went into that outcome. Jalen getting his knee bent backwards, the insane snow/ice storm, losing Quinyon early. If you told me that the Eagles would miss not one, but two xp's and give up a safety I'd tell you they lost. Saquon was amazing, but Jalen Carter saved their season-very Aaron Donald-esque.

The defense did what I expected them to do-limit LA to 20 points. There were also a small number of plays that went a weird way and really affected Philly's score. AJ dropping what 99 out of 100 times would be a gimme TD pass right before the half, Saquon's TD getting called back to the half yard line, the subsequent tush push TD getting nullified by a false start penalty (heard after the game the the D-line was simulating the snap count which should be a penalty on them, FWIW), the missed XP's. You get one of the AJ catch back and either the Saquon TD or the tush push and you're talking about the Eagles scoring 35 points. Get them both and its a 42-22 laugher. I know you can't take plays away, but for real I think under normal circumstances the Birds go over 30 last night.

I expect the defense to perform similarly to how they have for the last 15 weeks. They give up 20 points or less almost every game- in fact the only game where they gave up more was the last game against Washington-but that saw Jalen go out in the second drive and CJGJ get ejected. That was a weird one. I think Washington puts 20-25 points up.

Can the Eagles offense best that? I think so but it really depends on Jalen. I see no scenario where he doesn't play. But if he is limited in his ability to run (and thus remove that from the playbook), I think they will struggle. That affects the passing game and it certainly affects Saquon's numbers.

Too early in the week to know, but I am optimistic.

Thanks - very nice, detailed response! I think I also underestimated the Rams defense. They look like they’ll be a force for the foreseeable future (similar to the Eagles D).

Yeah rams are gonna run that division for awhile. Only issue is stafford wont play forever. They should draft a qb soon

 

[fred_1_15301]

Here is what I wonder - can the Eagles offense be stopped? Eagles fans were mostly saying that the only chance the Rams had to win was if they won the turnover battle by like 2 or 3. The Rams actually ended up turning the ball over more and still was in position to win that game. Barkley doesn't seem capable of being stopped over the course of 60 minutes. However, is the rest of the offense good enough against 2 of the 3 remaining teams? I think they're good enough because of how strong the defense is. But the game yesterday was a little eye opening as I was expecting more domination. Of course yesterday might have been a little skewed because of Hurts's injury and the weather. Also I know they were moving the ball and then Hurts kept taking boneheaded sacks. But that's not a limitation that just disappears magically at this point of the season.

I bet on the Eagles up to now but I'm hesitant to bet them this week.

That was me that said the only way they lose is if Jalen turns it over 2+ times. He didn't and they won. Albeit, waaaay closer than I was expecting, but there were a lot of variables that went into that outcome. Jalen getting his knee bent backwards, the insane snow/ice storm, losing Quinyon early. If you told me that the Eagles would miss not one, but two xp's and give up a safety I'd tell you they lost. Saquon was amazing, but Jalen Carter saved their season-very Aaron Donald-esque.

The defense did what I expected them to do-limit LA to 20 points. There were also a small number of plays that went a weird way and really affected Philly's score. AJ dropping what 99 out of 100 times would be a gimme TD pass right before the half, Saquon's TD getting called back to the half yard line, the subsequent tush push TD getting nullified by a false start penalty (heard after the game the the D-line was simulating the snap count which should be a penalty on them, FWIW), the missed XP's. You get one of the AJ catch back and either the Saquon TD or the tush push and you're talking about the Eagles scoring 35 points. Get them both and its a 42-22 laugher. I know you can't take plays away, but for real I think under normal circumstances the Birds go over 30 last night.

I expect the defense to perform similarly to how they have for the last 15 weeks. They give up 20 points or less almost every game- in fact the only game where they gave up more was the last game against Washington-but that saw Jalen go out in the second drive and CJGJ get ejected. That was a weird one. I think Washington puts 20-25 points up.

Can the Eagles offense best that? I think so but it really depends on Jalen. I see no scenario where he doesn't play. But if he is limited in his ability to run (and thus remove that from the playbook), I think they will struggle. That affects the passing game and it certainly affects Saquon's numbers.

Too early in the week to know, but I am optimistic.

Thanks - very nice, detailed response! I think I also underestimated the Rams defense. They look like they’ll be a force for the foreseeable future (similar to the Eagles D).

Yeah rams are gonna run that division for awhile. Only issue is stafford wont play forever. They should draft a qb soon

That’s true. I can’t imagine he has many years left. So happy he got that one superbowl.

 

[Wingnut]

Road teams in the playoffs:

Washington: 2-0

Everyone else: 0-8

 

[Harjiran]

On paper, the Eagles are superior to the Commanders in many respects. Their OL and DL are stacked, probably the envy of the league, and Saquon Barkley is the best back in football right now. Just really talented and deep on both sides of the ball, it's a team built to win championships. But I think the Commanders will win this game for several reasons. If Hurts plays and isn't close to 100% (which I believe will be the case) that's a huge factor in Washington's favor. A healthy Hurts probably doesn't make a ton of drive-killing mistakes or take safeties, etc. The Commanders' no-name defense is underrated and playing better than they have all season - they will tee off on Hurts and cause turnovers if he can't move around in the pocket. I won't be surprised if we see Kenny Pickett at some point. Another factor is playcalling and coaching - I give the Commanders the advantage here as Washington's coaches have consistently put their players in position to succeed, and the team is riding high, believing in itself, not accepting defeat. Jayden Daniels is going to move the ball down the field, no matter what the defense does, partly because of his supreme combination of talent, intelligence, poise and self-confidence but also because Washington's coaches are calling plays that maximize his strengths so the defense is often off-balance and chasing the play. After witnessing the success that Jahmyr Gibbs had against the Commanders' D on Saturday, I have to think that Philly's best hope is riding Saquon to the tune of 30-35 carries and throwing the ball mainly to set up the run. If they lean on the running game and stick with it through all four downs, Philly probably wins. But I suspect they'll try to get cute like Detroit did, turn the ball over, and end of losing a close one - Commanders 31-Eagles 28.

 

[Terpman22]

On paper, the Eagles are superior to the Commanders in many respects. Their OL and DL are stacked, probably the envy of the league, and Saquon Barkley is the best back in football right now. Just really talented and deep on both sides of the ball, it's a team built to win championships. But I think the Commanders will win this game for several reasons. If Hurts plays and isn't close to 100% (which I believe will be the case) that's a huge factor in Washington's favor. A healthy Hurts probably doesn't make a ton of drive-killing mistakes or take safeties, etc. The Commanders' no-name defense is underrated and playing better than they have all season - they will tee off on Hurts and cause turnovers if he can't move around in the pocket. I won't be surprised if we see Kenny Pickett at some point. Another factor is playcalling and coaching - I give the Commanders the advantage here as Washington's coaches have consistently put their players in position to succeed, and the team is riding high, believing in itself, not accepting defeat. Jayden Daniels is going to move the ball down the field, no matter what the defense does, partly because of his supreme combination of talent, intelligence, poise and self-confidence but also because Washington's coaches are calling plays that maximize his strengths so the defense is often off-balance and chasing the play. After witnessing the success that Jahmyr Gibbs had against the Commanders' D on Saturday, I have to think that Philly's best hope is riding Saquon to the tune of 30-35 carries and throwing the ball mainly to set up the run. If they lean on the running game and stick with it through all four downs, Philly probably wins. But I suspect they'll try to get cute like Detroit did, turn the ball over, and end of losing a close one - Commanders 31-Eagles 28.

Do you suspect or hope this happens? The Eagles have given literally no reason to show this will be the case at all, they only tried to pass when they really had to yesterday for the most part.

 

[metoo]

Daniels is a truck and Hurts is a trailer. Daniel’s has played well all season, why stop now?0

 

[unckeyherb]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

I read on this very board last week that maybe 5 players off the Washington squad would start for the lions. Yet here we are.

I’m not counting them out

 

[need2know]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

I read on this very board last week that maybe 5 players off the Washington squad would start for the lions. Yet here we are.

I’m not counting them out

Lions defense sucked and they gave away 5 turnovers. Giant choke job. Wont happen with the eagles

 

[unckeyherb]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

I read on this very board last week that maybe 5 players off the Washington squad would start for the lions. Yet here we are.

I’m not counting them out

Yeah I don’t know about that but I’m not counting them out. I do think the game last week in Detroit is not representative of what they will/can do against not only a legitimate and healthy defense but arguably the best defense in the league.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

I read on this very board last week that maybe 5 players off the Washington squad would start for the lions. Yet here we are.

I’m not counting them out

Lions defense sucked and they gave away 5 turnovers. Giant choke job. Wont happen with the eagles

Right? I’m not sure why they don’t just cancel the game and crown Philly’s ***

 

[Snotbubbles]

On paper, the Eagles are superior to the Commanders in many respects. Their OL and DL are stacked, probably the envy of the league, and Saquon Barkley is the best back in football right now. Just really talented and deep on both sides of the ball, it's a team built to win championships. But I think the Commanders will win this game for several reasons. If Hurts plays and isn't close to 100% (which I believe will be the case) that's a huge factor in Washington's favor. A healthy Hurts probably doesn't make a ton of drive-killing mistakes or take safeties, etc. The Commanders' no-name defense is underrated and playing better than they have all season - they will tee off on Hurts and cause turnovers if he can't move around in the pocket. I won't be surprised if we see Kenny Pickett at some point. Another factor is playcalling and coaching - I give the Commanders the advantage here as Washington's coaches have consistently put their players in position to succeed, and the team is riding high, believing in itself, not accepting defeat. Jayden Daniels is going to move the ball down the field, no matter what the defense does, partly because of his supreme combination of talent, intelligence, poise and self-confidence but also because Washington's coaches are calling plays that maximize his strengths so the defense is often off-balance and chasing the play. After witnessing the success that Jahmyr Gibbs had against the Commanders' D on Saturday, I have to think that Philly's best hope is riding Saquon to the tune of 30-35 carries and throwing the ball mainly to set up the run. If they lean on the running game and stick with it through all four downs, Philly probably wins. But I suspect they'll try to get cute like Detroit did, turn the ball over, and end of losing a close one - Commanders 31-Eagles 28.

That is literally what the Eagles have done since Week 6. Hurts has thrown it 30 times once (32 times week 15 against PIT). He's usually around 20-22 pass attempts. He's had 1 INT in that same time period. If you think the Eagles will get cute, they won't.

 

[need2know]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

I read on this very board last week that maybe 5 players off the Washington squad would start for the lions. Yet here we are.

I’m not counting them out

Lions defense sucked and they gave away 5 turnovers. Giant choke job. Wont happen with the eagles

Right? I’m not sure why they don’t just cancel the game and crown Philly’s ***

That would work

 

[Snotbubbles]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

I read on this very board last week that maybe 5 players off the Washington squad would start for the lions. Yet here we are.

I’m not counting them out

Yeah I don’t know about that but I’m not counting them out. I do think the game last week in Detroit is not representative of what they will/can do against not only a legitimate and healthy defense but arguably the best defense in the league.

Detroit had 201 rushing yards on 23 carries. I'm still trying to figure out why they didn't run the ball down Washingtons throat. They could have run for 350 yards, it would have eliminated all the turnovers and it would have wore down the WAS defense. It also shortens the game and keeps your depleted defense off the field. Just so many benefits to it and they just didn't do it.

 

[Harjiran]

On paper, the Eagles are superior to the Commanders in many respects. Their OL and DL are stacked, probably the envy of the league, and Saquon Barkley is the best back in football right now. Just really talented and deep on both sides of the ball, it's a team built to win championships. But I think the Commanders will win this game for several reasons. If Hurts plays and isn't close to 100% (which I believe will be the case) that's a huge factor in Washington's favor. A healthy Hurts probably doesn't make a ton of drive-killing mistakes or take safeties, etc. The Commanders' no-name defense is underrated and playing better than they have all season - they will tee off on Hurts and cause turnovers if he can't move around in the pocket. I won't be surprised if we see Kenny Pickett at some point. Another factor is playcalling and coaching - I give the Commanders the advantage here as Washington's coaches have consistently put their players in position to succeed, and the team is riding high, believing in itself, not accepting defeat. Jayden Daniels is going to move the ball down the field, no matter what the defense does, partly because of his supreme combination of talent, intelligence, poise and self-confidence but also because Washington's coaches are calling plays that maximize his strengths so the defense is often off-balance and chasing the play. After witnessing the success that Jahmyr Gibbs had against the Commanders' D on Saturday, I have to think that Philly's best hope is riding Saquon to the tune of 30-35 carries and throwing the ball mainly to set up the run. If they lean on the running game and stick with it through all four downs, Philly probably wins. But I suspect they'll try to get cute like Detroit did, turn the ball over, and end of losing a close one - Commanders 31-Eagles 28.

That is literally what the Eagles have done since Week 6. Hurts has thrown it 30 times once (32 times week 15 against PIT). He's usually around 20-22 pass attempts. He's had 1 INT in that same time period. If you think the Eagles will get cute, they won't.

Right - getting away from that run-first game plan for any reason would be playing to Washington's strengths and could spell disaster for Philly, that's mainly what I meant.

 

[fatness]

Washington really wants to be a run-first team. Their o-line just isn't as good as a lot of d-lines they face so early in the game Robinson runs face first into the back of his own backwards-moving o-lineman and gains little. That happens a few times and then, if they're not ahead, they open things up with Ekeler coming in a lot more, and with passing more and/or taking more long shots. And damn is Daniels good on long shots.

If their running games works early, they'll stick to it until it's stopped and keep taking deep shots.

This offseason they really need to upgrade their o-line, which has improved a great deal since the early season but still is overmatched too often.

 

[BassNBrew]

Gonna be a crapola game unless you're a Philly fan. Barkly should easily run for 250. Daniels will look horrible. Hopefully it's the early game so I can find something better to do and save the other game for later.

 

[Snotbubbles]

On paper, the Eagles are superior to the Commanders in many respects. Their OL and DL are stacked, probably the envy of the league, and Saquon Barkley is the best back in football right now. Just really talented and deep on both sides of the ball, it's a team built to win championships. But I think the Commanders will win this game for several reasons. If Hurts plays and isn't close to 100% (which I believe will be the case) that's a huge factor in Washington's favor. A healthy Hurts probably doesn't make a ton of drive-killing mistakes or take safeties, etc. The Commanders' no-name defense is underrated and playing better than they have all season - they will tee off on Hurts and cause turnovers if he can't move around in the pocket. I won't be surprised if we see Kenny Pickett at some point. Another factor is playcalling and coaching - I give the Commanders the advantage here as Washington's coaches have consistently put their players in position to succeed, and the team is riding high, believing in itself, not accepting defeat. Jayden Daniels is going to move the ball down the field, no matter what the defense does, partly because of his supreme combination of talent, intelligence, poise and self-confidence but also because Washington's coaches are calling plays that maximize his strengths so the defense is often off-balance and chasing the play. After witnessing the success that Jahmyr Gibbs had against the Commanders' D on Saturday, I have to think that Philly's best hope is riding Saquon to the tune of 30-35 carries and throwing the ball mainly to set up the run. If they lean on the running game and stick with it through all four downs, Philly probably wins. But I suspect they'll try to get cute like Detroit did, turn the ball over, and end of losing a close one - Commanders 31-Eagles 28.

That is literally what the Eagles have done since Week 6. Hurts has thrown it 30 times once (32 times week 15 against PIT). He's usually around 20-22 pass attempts. He's had 1 INT in that same time period. If you think the Eagles will get cute, they won't.

Right - getting away from that run-first game plan for any reason would be playing to Washington's strengths and could spell disaster for Philly, that's mainly what I meant.

You sentence after the bolded, "But I suspect they'll try to get cute", they won't. I don't even know if they have any plays to "get cute." I'd say at least since Thanksgiving, when Barkley ran for 255 against the Rams and firmly planted himself in the MVP discussion, teams have tried to stop the Eagles rushing attack. I'm not sure any team can.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Washington really wants to be a run-first team. Their o-line just isn't as good as a lot of d-lines they face so early in the game Robinson runs face first into the back of his own backwards-moving o-lineman and gains little. That happens a few times and then, if they're not ahead, they open things up with Ekeler coming in a lot more, and with passing more and/or taking more long shots. And damn is Daniels good on long shots.

If their running games works early, they'll stick to it until it's stopped and keep taking deep shots.

This offseason they really need to upgrade their o-line, which has improved a great deal since the early season but still is overmatched too often.

Cosmi is a big loss. The Commanders two guards were two of the worst rated players for Washington in their game against Detroit. Jalen Carter and the rest of the interior D line for Philly won't make it easy to run inside.

 

[jasvic]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

 

[Snotbubbles]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

Happenstance, I was at two of those three Green Bay road games in 2010 (Atlanta, Chicago). It was awesome.

Winning 3 road games is crazy enough. 4……well, at this point it only takes one more……

That said, I see the Eagles winning this one.

 

[rzrback77]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

ETA:

Some interesting trends:

The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.

Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.

The Commanders are a 6-seed in the Conference Championship game.

Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.

Jalen Hurts has played four home games in the playoffs, and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:

• 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
• 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
• 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG

Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.

Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

That's interesting info. No guarantees for Philly but some more data to consider.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

That's interesting info. No guarantees for Philly but some more data to consider.

Read the link. Most of the trends favor the Eagles which is to be expected since 6 seeds have a tough road to get to the Championship games.

 

[Insein]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

ETA:

Some interesting trends:

The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.

Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.

The Commanders are a 6-seed in the Conference Championship game.

Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.

Jalen Hurts has played four home games in the playoffs, and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:

• 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
• 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
• 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG

Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.

Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.

We got the refs this weekend! Awesome.

 

[Terpman22]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

ETA:

Some interesting trends:

The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.

Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.

The Commanders are a 6-seed in the Conference Championship game.

Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.

Jalen Hurts has played four home games in the playoffs, and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:

• 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
• 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
• 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG

Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.

Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.

We got the refs this weekend! Awesome.

Great so the Eagles

Got the easiest regular season schedule of all time (again)
Get super lucky to host a banged up Packers squad
The one seed is running all over the 6 seed, then stops, loses, giving Philly a potential homefield game
Then get even super luckier when they have to host a team to travel cross country on short rest (benefits of a 2 seed be damned!)
Now the script writers got WAS coming in on their FOURTH consecutive road game and are 30th against the run, facing a 2k rusher.
Oh and it just so happens the Eagles are undefeated in games by these refs




Did I get close? So far...

 

[fred_1_15301]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

ETA:

Some interesting trends:

The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.

Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.

The Commanders are a 6-seed in the Conference Championship game.

Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.

Jalen Hurts has played four home games in the playoffs, and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:

• 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
• 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
• 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG

Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.

Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.

We got the refs this weekend! Awesome.

Great so the Eagles

Got the easiest regular season schedule of all time (again)
Get super lucky to host a banged up Packers squad
The one seed is running all over the 6 seed, then stops, loses, giving Philly a potential homefield game
Then get even super luckier when they have to host a team to travel cross country on short rest (benefits of a 2 seed be damned!)
Now the script writers got WAS coming in on their FOURTH consecutive road game and are 30th against the run, facing a 2k rusher.
Oh and it just so happens the Eagles are undefeated in games by these refs




Did I get close? So far...

No offense but you tend to make these type of posts a lot. Nobody (or at least not many) is underplaying the Eagles accomplishments this year. They’ve earned every bit of where they are today.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

ETA:

Some interesting trends:

The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.

Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.

The Commanders are a 6-seed in the Conference Championship game.

Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.

Jalen Hurts has played four home games in the playoffs, and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:

• 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
• 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
• 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG

Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.

Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.

We got the refs this weekend! Awesome.

Great so the Eagles

Got the easiest regular season schedule of all time (again)
Get super lucky to host a banged up Packers squad
The one seed is running all over the 6 seed, then stops, loses, giving Philly a potential homefield game
Then get even super luckier when they have to host a team to travel cross country on short rest (benefits of a 2 seed be damned!)
Now the script writers got WAS coming in on their FOURTH consecutive road game and are 30th against the run, facing a 2k rusher.
Oh and it just so happens the Eagles are undefeated in games by these refs




Did I get close? So far...

Rookie QBs have never won a game in this round in NFL history.

 

[Harjiran]

You guys must be pretty excited to be playing the Commanders - sounds like you've got this one in the bag!

 

[Snotbubbles]

You guys must be pretty excited to be playing the Commanders - sounds like you've got this one in the bag!

I'm glad they're at home, in the NFL, that's a big deal. Plus, the Eagles matchup better against Washington. So yeah, I'm pretty excited.

 

[unckeyherb]

You guys must be pretty excited to be playing the Commanders - sounds like you've got this one in the bag!

I mean, if you're asking whether I'd want them to play at home throughout the playoffs, ending with the sixth seed that happens to be a team we are very familiar with versus on the road against a tremendous Detroit team in their own house, yeah, I'm excited. I wouldn't say we have it in the bag without knowing the health of Hurts and Quinyon. If you told me those two guys were 100%, I'd say its ours to lose.

 

[Harjiran]

I'm excited too - I think the Commanders are going to win because they've been playing out of their minds and the Eagles seem to be banged up. I guess we'll see - that's why they play the games. All those stats you've cited aren't going to mean much when the players take the field.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Line seems low, but WAS has kept every game since week 1 within like 8 points. They went up tempo no huddle somewhere around week 4 and it keeps DL from rotating, and they get stuck chansing Daniels around. That has been a big part of their success, The Defense adjusts well during games. They have holes, but cover them up well as the game progresses. They also have a huge turnover margin in the playoffs. Not sure exactly but I think it's 8 takeaways and 0 turnovers.

PHI is the better team with more talent and a really solid OL. But Daniels is the better QB and WAS has the better coaches.

As much as I want WAS to win, Daniels has to play really well and PHI offense needs to turn it over a couple of times.

 

[ChiefD]

Washington is going to play so loose in this game. That is what I would worry about if I’m an Eagles fan.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Line seems low, but WAS has kept every game since week 1 within like 8 points. They went up tempo no huddle somewhere around week 4 and it keeps DL from rotating, and they get stuck chansing Daniels around. That has been a big part of their success, The Defense adjusts well during games. They have holes, but cover them up well as the game progresses. They also have a huge turnover margin in the playoffs. Not sure exactly but I think it's 8 takeaways and 0 turnovers.

PHI is the better team with more talent and a really solid OL. But Daniels is the better QB and WAS has the better coaches.

As much as I want WAS to win, Daniels has to play really well and PHI offense needs to turn it over a couple of times.

WAS does not have the better coaches.

 

[renesauz]

Washington is going to play so loose in this game. That is what I would worry about if I’m an Eagles fan.

yep

Eagles should win, but any given Sunday more then applies in the playoffs. Commanders have a realistic hope for an upset

 

[Snotbubbles]

Aaron Schatz:

Getting a number of complaints from Commanders fans that their run defense has improved in the second half of the season.

This is true.

From Week 1-9, it ranked 26th.
From Week 10-18, it ranked 19th.

x.com

x.com

These numbers are skewed by a three week stretch of bad rushing offenses (or offenses in general).

The Dallas Cowboys had 28 carries for 91 yards. Dallas was the 29th ranked rushing offenses in the league. They finished with under 100 yards rushing in a game 9 times this season.

The Tennessee Titans only attempted 11 rushes (for 35 yards) in their game against WAS after WAS jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the second quarter. Tennessee was the 26th ranked rushing offense this season. Tennessee finished with under 100 rushing yards 7 times this season and the 35 yards weren't even the worst day rushing they had (had 33 yards rushing twice).

The Saints only attempted 16 rushed (for 69 yards). The Saints were the 31st ranked rushing offense in the league. They finished with under 100 yards rushing 10 times this season.

During that week 10-18 stretch, WAS faced Philly twice and Philly went for over 200 on the ground both times: 228 and 211. If there's a prop bet of total rushing yards take PHI over 200. That's about as sure a bet as Boston Scott anytime TD vs. NYG.

 

[Terpman22]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

ETA:

Some interesting trends:

The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.

Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.

The Commanders are a 6-seed in the Conference Championship game.

Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.

Jalen Hurts has played four home games in the playoffs, and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:

• 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
• 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
• 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG

Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.

Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.

We got the refs this weekend! Awesome.

Great so the Eagles

Got the easiest regular season schedule of all time (again)
Get super lucky to host a banged up Packers squad
The one seed is running all over the 6 seed, then stops, loses, giving Philly a potential homefield game
Then get even super luckier when they have to host a team to travel cross country on short rest (benefits of a 2 seed be damned!)
Now the script writers got WAS coming in on their FOURTH consecutive road game and are 30th against the run, facing a 2k rusher.
Oh and it just so happens the Eagles are undefeated in games by these refs




Did I get close? So far...

No offense but you tend to make these type of posts a lot. Nobody (or at least not many) is underplaying the Eagles accomplishments this year. They’ve earned every bit of where they are today.

The guy that runs this site for the most part, seems to always think the Eagles are either overrated or got there b/c ya know, not on their own merits. All good. I do it a few times by design, bc I and a few other Eagles fans know/expect it to be coming. I appreciate you being standup though!

 

[Terpman22]

You guys must be pretty excited to be playing the Commanders - sounds like you've got this one in the bag!

Very happy to be hosting the Commanders instead of traveling to Detroit to play the Lions.

There is a distinct advantage in what matchup over the other.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Its hard to state how great value he is right now.

Even if he finishes like WR 46, you're still getting a deal. And there is potential for decent upside.

Don't overthink this.

This weeks game will be the fourth in a row for Washington and the third in a row as a road dog. Daniel’s has been amazing but I expect a regression to the mean.

Feel like this is being overlooked. I wonder how often, if ever, a team has played and won their 4th road game in a row. not including neutral site. Would think that would eventually take a toll on a team.

Four teams in NFL history won 3 road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl. The 1985 New England Patriots, the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2007 New York Giants, and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. They all had a home game to end their regular seasons. I didn't check to see if anyone ended a season with 2 road wins and then won 2 road playoff games. My guess is, no team has ever won 4 road games in 4 weeks.

The difficulty factor for four straight road wins is magnified in part because it a rare occurrence. You would have to be the lower seeded team to play the first road playoff game and you would likely be the underdog most weeks and you would have to win as an underdog three straight weeks in the playoffs. Very long odds.

I actually found the answer: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/n...ds-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.

The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

ETA:

Some interesting trends:

The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.

Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.

The Commanders are a 6-seed in the Conference Championship game.

Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.

Jalen Hurts has played four home games in the playoffs, and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:

• 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
• 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
• 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG

Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.

Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.

We bump heads sometimes but damn if I don’t respect your football acumen. You and twerpman22 (Just a friendly jab,) do a good job with info/stats/arguments.

 

[Terpman22]

Aaron Schatz:

Getting a number of complaints from Commanders fans that their run defense has improved in the second half of the season.

This is true.

From Week 1-9, it ranked 26th.
From Week 10-18, it ranked 19th.

x.com

x.com

These numbers are skewed by a three week stretch of bad rushing offenses (or offenses in general).

The Dallas Cowboys had 28 carries for 91 yards. Dallas was the 29th ranked rushing offenses in the league. They finished with under 100 yards rushing in a game 9 times this season.

The Tennessee Titans only attempted 11 rushes (for 35 yards) in their game against WAS after WAS jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the second quarter. Tennessee was the 26th ranked rushing offense this season. Tennessee finished with under 100 rushing yards 7 times this season and the 35 yards weren't even the worst day rushing they had (had 33 yards rushing twice).

The Saints only attempted 16 rushed (for 69 yards). The Saints were the 31st ranked rushing offense in the league. They finished with under 100 yards rushing 10 times this season.

During that week 10-18 stretch, WAS faced Philly twice and Philly went for over 200 on the ground both times: 228 and 211. If there's a prop bet of total rushing yards take PHI over 200. That's about as sure a bet as Boston Scott anytime TD vs. NYG.

Also to mention during this span mentioned in weeks 10-18 was the game we played them. Hurts missed 3 Qs and the Eagles STILL ran for over 200 yards, albeit in a loss. I don't think this game is going to be similar to the 1st two games though.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Aaron Schatz:

Getting a number of complaints from Commanders fans that their run defense has improved in the second half of the season.

This is true.

From Week 1-9, it ranked 26th.
From Week 10-18, it ranked 19th.

x.com

x.com

These numbers are skewed by a three week stretch of bad rushing offenses (or offenses in general).

The Dallas Cowboys had 28 carries for 91 yards. Dallas was the 29th ranked rushing offenses in the league. They finished with under 100 yards rushing in a game 9 times this season.

The Tennessee Titans only attempted 11 rushes (for 35 yards) in their game against WAS after WAS jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the second quarter. Tennessee was the 26th ranked rushing offense this season. Tennessee finished with under 100 rushing yards 7 times this season and the 35 yards weren't even the worst day rushing they had (had 33 yards rushing twice).

The Saints only attempted 16 rushed (for 69 yards). The Saints were the 31st ranked rushing offense in the league. They finished with under 100 yards rushing 10 times this season.

During that week 10-18 stretch, WAS faced Philly twice and Philly went for over 200 on the ground both times: 228 and 211. If there's a prop bet of total rushing yards take PHI over 200. That's about as sure a bet as Boston Scott anytime TD vs. NYG.

Also to mention during this span mentioned in weeks 10-18 was the game we played them. Hurts missed 3 Qs and the Eagles STILL ran for over 200 yards, albeit in a loss. I don't think this game is going to be similar to the 1st two games though.

The second game, losing Hurts was a blow. But the bigger loss was CJGJ getting tossed. McCollum got burnt twice as his replacement.

WAS drives with CJGJ in the game: Downs, Fumble, Punt, TD, Fumble, TD, Punt, INT, Fumble

Once CJGJ got tossed: TD, TD, INT, TD

 

[GoBirds]

Line seems low, but WAS has kept every game since week 1 within like 8 points. They went up tempo no huddle somewhere around week 4 and it keeps DL from rotating, and they get stuck chansing Daniels around. That has been a big part of their success, The Defense adjusts well during games. They have holes, but cover them up well as the game progresses. They also have a huge turnover margin in the playoffs. Not sure exactly but I think it's 8 takeaways and 0 turnovers.

PHI is the better team with more talent and a really solid OL. But Daniels is the better QB and WAS has the better coaches.

As much as I want WAS to win, Daniels has to play really well and PHI offense needs to turn it over a couple of times.

WAS does not have the better coaches.

Agreed. It’s funny to watch the lack of respect our coaches get yet find a coach with more wins his first few seasons than Sirianni. Reg season and playoffs, not many.

Wash hype train is at an all time high while the Birds catching all the negativity. Wouldn’t be surprised either way with this game but could see us put it on them after this media cycle. No game is a given in the NFL but I see us having a 60% chance in this one vs probably 40% against Detroit. I’ll take it!

 

[ffmail4me]

Line seems low, but WAS has kept every game since week 1 within like 8 points. They went up tempo no huddle somewhere around week 4 and it keeps DL from rotating, and they get stuck chansing Daniels around. That has been a big part of their success, The Defense adjusts well during games. They have holes, but cover them up well as the game progresses. They also have a huge turnover margin in the playoffs. Not sure exactly but I think it's 8 takeaways and 0 turnovers.

PHI is the better team with more talent and a really solid OL. But Daniels is the better QB and WAS has the better coaches.

As much as I want WAS to win, Daniels has to play really well and PHI offense needs to turn it over a couple of times.

WAS does not have the better coaches.

Ummm, are you kidding here? Yes, Philly has a more talented overall roster, but I bet 9 out of 10 people would take our coaches over yours. Your coach is a freaking idiot to boot...