NFL Schedule and Rest (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Thought this was interesting.

What do you think?

Teams Helped & Hurt By the 2023 NFL Schedule: Chiefs, 49ers, Eagles

NFL rest edge, which teams are helped & hurt the most by 2023 NFL schedule, betting importance of rest edges, Colts, Commanders, Browns, 49ers, Chiefs, Eagles

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

What You Need to Know:

• The Jets, Bears, and Commanders have 12 extra days of rest than their opponents, the most in the league.
• The 49ers have 20 fewer days of rest than their opponents, the fewest in the league.
• The Colts were helped the most by the schedule followed by the Commanders and Browns.
• The Chiefs were hurt the most by the schedule followed by the 49ers and Eagles.

There are two elements to NFL strength of schedule:

1. Strength of opponent
2. Difficulty of scheduled timing

Who each team would play in 2023 was determined months ago, so the strength of opponent was already known, and those rankings can be found on Sharp Football Analysis.

When each team would play was not known until last week, however, and that NFL schedule release brought good news for some teams and bad news for several others.

In 2021, we saw 85 games played with a rest disparity between teams. That rose to 93 games in 2022. This year, it has increased to 95 games.

We have a team totaling 28 days of rest disadvantage (most in several years) while another team has zero games with a rest disadvantage.

We have a team totaling 17 days of rest advantage (most in several years) while another team plays zero games with a rest advantage. The total straddle has increased by 45% compared to last year.

Increasingly, the NFL schedule has created haves and have-nots when it comes to rest and prep time, and those differences affect the outcome on the field.

Why Does Rest Disparity Matter?​

Net rest is the extra number of rest days a team has over their opponent per game, summed over the course of the season.

Last year, three teams had net rest edges of negative-10 days or worse: Packers (-12), Patriots (-10), and Texans (-10). All three fell below their expected win total.

The two teams with the best net rest edges last year, the Bills (+12) and Lions (+11), went over their win totals. Buffalo hit the over despite one fewer game because of the Demar Hamlin injury, and the Lions were one of the most surprising success stories of 2022.

Rest edges also matter for weekly lines.

Last year, teams with a net rest edge of three or more days went 32-24-1 (57%) and covered the spread at a 54.4% rate.

It is even more valuable later in the season.

Since 2015, teams with a three or more day rest advantage from Week 13 onward have won 55.2% of their games and have covered the spread in 55.7% of games over a 106-game sample.

This is despite the betting lines at times being “adjusted” to account for these rest edges.

Understanding rest and prep advantages is a great way to find an edge both in NFL win totals and weekly game lines.

See rest of the story here https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/2023-teams-hurt-helped-nfl-schedule/

 

[BassNBrew]

Thought this was interesting.

What do you think?

Teams Helped & Hurt By the 2023 NFL Schedule: Chiefs, 49ers, Eagles

NFL rest edge, which teams are helped & hurt the most by 2023 NFL schedule, betting importance of rest edges, Colts, Commanders, Browns, 49ers, Chiefs, Eagles

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

What You Need to Know:

• The Jets, Bears, and Commanders have 12 extra days of rest than their opponents, the most in the league.
• The 49ers have 20 fewer days of rest than their opponents, the fewest in the league.
• The Colts were helped the most by the schedule followed by the Commanders and Browns.
• The Chiefs were hurt the most by the schedule followed by the 49ers and Eagles.

There are two elements to NFL strength of schedule:

1. Strength of opponent
2. Difficulty of scheduled timing

Who each team would play in 2023 was determined months ago, so the strength of opponent was already known, and those rankings can be found on Sharp Football Analysis.

When each team would play was not known until last week, however, and that NFL schedule release brought good news for some teams and bad news for several others.

In 2021, we saw 85 games played with a rest disparity between teams. That rose to 93 games in 2022. This year, it has increased to 95 games.

We have a team totaling 28 days of rest disadvantage (most in several years) while another team has zero games with a rest disadvantage.

We have a team totaling 17 days of rest advantage (most in several years) while another team plays zero games with a rest advantage. The total straddle has increased by 45% compared to last year.

Increasingly, the NFL schedule has created haves and have-nots when it comes to rest and prep time, and those differences affect the outcome on the field.

Why Does Rest Disparity Matter?​

Net rest is the extra number of rest days a team has over their opponent per game, summed over the course of the season.

Last year, three teams had net rest edges of negative-10 days or worse: Packers (-12), Patriots (-10), and Texans (-10). All three fell below their expected win total.

The two teams with the best net rest edges last year, the Bills (+12) and Lions (+11), went over their win totals. Buffalo hit the over despite one fewer game because of the Demar Hamlin injury, and the Lions were one of the most surprising success stories of 2022.

Rest edges also matter for weekly lines.

Last year, teams with a net rest edge of three or more days went 32-24-1 (57%) and covered the spread at a 54.4% rate.

It is even more valuable later in the season.

Since 2015, teams with a three or more day rest advantage from Week 13 onward have won 55.2% of their games and have covered the spread in 55.7% of games over a 106-game sample.

This is despite the betting lines at times being “adjusted” to account for these rest edges.

Understanding rest and prep advantages is a great way to find an edge both in NFL win totals and weekly game lines.

See rest of the story here https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/2023-teams-hurt-helped-nfl-schedule/

Take a look at this Joe.

Bye Weeks

Do teams have an advantage after a bye week ? by Denis O'Regan. There's been some interest recently on various blogs concerning the perfo...

community.advancednflstats.com

It shows that teams coming off a bye pretty much have the same expected outcome when playing at home and do a little better if traveling. SF rest disparity mostly comes against teams playing at home.

 

[rockaction]

I've seen them write about this. I never really comment on studies like this because I don't understand the methodology and statistics behind it well enough at this point in my intellectual development.

It makes sense. Listen to the players. They covet the rest.

 

[renesauz]

they play the same number of games, and there's only a few days difference between first for all (IE...between Thursday and Monday week 1). None for last game between all.....so the methodology is far from clear here. Because that means nobody can be at a surplus or deficit of more then 4 days for the season

 

[wlwiles]

• Everyone gets +1 or -1 as they shift from playing Sunday to Monday or Saturday to Sunday from week to week. Some teams get MNF multiple times, some teams not at all.
• On your TNF week you lose 3 days, but then you gain 3 days the next week on that opponent so cumulatively it cancels. Except the first TNF match of the season (equal rest). Not sure if every team plays exactly once on TNF, I feel like all teams do it once but some do it twice. It would cancel each time, unless one team got to stack TNF games back to back then they could get -3, then +3 and +3.
• Every team gains a +7 one time per year when they come off their bye. So the biggest differentiator in this is how many times does a team face an opponent who is coming off their bye. The Rams faced 3 opponents coming off their bye. The Niners had it happen 4 times, and 1 of those times they themselves were coming off a bye so it negated their one chance at +7. In 2023 we had 10 teams miss out on the +7 advantage, and four teams got hit with -7 more than once. Schedule makers should tweak the algorithm to make this more even IMO.

This whole thing doesn't take into account when the team bye's happen though which I think is a huge piece of the puzzle if you're talking about "Rest Advantage". There's got to be some advantage I would think of having a mid-season bye, vs. having a Week 5 or a Week 14 bye and having to play for 13 weeks in a row. I know there's a billion things to consider when making the NFL schedule (with the chief concern being Taylor Swift's tour schedule) but it makes no logical sense for 4 NFL teams to take a bye in Week 5, and then have zero teams on bye in Week 8. My solution if I ever get Goodell's job is that the NFL put all AFC teams on bye in Week 9, then all NFC teams in Week 10 or vice versa. No more 13 weeks in a row, and if you play conference-only matches coming out of the byes then all +7 advantages get nixed.

 

[wlwiles]

Overall I find this fascinating because I've always been intrigued by how the NFL schedule gets made. Chicago doesn't have one single week where they are less rested than their opponent, and Atlanta doesn't have one single week where they're more rested than theirs.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

One game that I'm sure has been repeated in the past coming up in a couple weeks. Chargers at home after a MNF game in Jersey. Lions coming off a bye week, 6 days off vs 13.

 

[BassNBrew]

• Everyone gets +1 or -1 as they shift from playing Sunday to Monday or Saturday to Sunday from week to week. Some teams get MNF multiple times, some teams not at all.
• On your TNF week you lose 3 days, but then you gain 3 days the next week on that opponent so cumulatively it cancels. Except the first TNF match of the season (equal rest). Not sure if every team plays exactly once on TNF, I feel like all teams do it once but some do it twice. It would cancel each time, unless one team got to stack TNF games back to back then they could get -3, then +3 and +3.
• Every team gains a +7 one time per year when they come off their bye. So the biggest differentiator in this is how many times does a team face an opponent who is coming off their bye. The Rams faced 3 opponents coming off their bye. The Niners had it happen 4 times, and 1 of those times they themselves were coming off a bye so it negated their one chance at +7. In 2023 we had 10 teams miss out on the +7 advantage, and four teams got hit with -7 more than once. Schedule makers should tweak the algorithm to make this more even IMO.

This whole thing doesn't take into account when the team bye's happen though which I think is a huge piece of the puzzle if you're talking about "Rest Advantage". There's got to be some advantage I would think of having a mid-season bye, vs. having a Week 5 or a Week 14 bye and having to play for 13 weeks in a row. I know there's a billion things to consider when making the NFL schedule (with the chief concern being Taylor Swift's tour schedule) but it makes no logical sense for 4 NFL teams to take a bye in Week 5, and then have zero teams on bye in Week 8. My solution if I ever get Goodell's job is that the NFL put all AFC teams on bye in Week 9, then all NFC teams in Week 10 or vice versa. No more 13 weeks in a row, and if you play conference-only matches coming out of the byes then all +7 advantages get nixed.

Here's a 7 page study covering that...

https://www.suu.edu/business/economics/working-paper-series/pdf/2021/funk-bye-weeks-impact-on-seasonal-success-in-the-nationa-football-league.pdf