Indications that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is still alive and in the coastal resort of Wonsan are mounting, as satellite images showed his train apparently traveled there in the past few days, and U.S. and South Korean officials said they did not believe he had died.
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But U.S. and South Korean intelligence services remain skeptical of reports that Kim is dead or gravely ill, according to three government officials familiar with the matter.
“We understand that Chairman Kim Jong Un has been in Wonsan this week,” said a South Korean official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
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Commercial satellite images published by the 38 North website, affiliated with the Stimson Center, showed what appeared to be Kim’s 250-meter-long personal train at a railway station dedicated to the Kim family in Wonsan on April 21 and 23.
The train was not present on April 15.
“The train’s presence does not prove the whereabouts of the North Korean leader or indicate anything about his health, but it does lend weight to reports that Kim is staying at an elite area on the country’s eastern coast,” Martyn Williams, Peter Makowsky and Jenny Town wrote in their report.
To be sure, something strange is going down in the intensely secretive state.
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Thae Yong-ho, a former senior North Korean diplomat who defected to the South in 2016, said in a statement it was “unprecedented” that Kim did not appear to lay a wreath at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where his grandfather and father’s bodies are both embalmed.
But the fact that Kim has not been seen in public for two weeks is not in itself unusual — it falls within the “normal range” of absence for the North Korean leader, said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a former North Korea open-source intelligence analyst for the U.S. government.
Indeed, Kim disappeared from public view for three weeks between a Lunar New Year concert on Jan. 25 and a February event at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun to mark his father’s birthday. He was not seen in public for another 13 days before offering “guidance” for military training on Feb. 28, according to state media reports.
“His absence from the Kumsusan Palace on Kim Il Sung’s birthday was unusual, but that alone is not evidence enough to say Kim Jong Un is in trouble,” Lee said.
...But if Kim were gravely ill, it’s unlikely he would have left the hospital and traveled by train to Wonsan, a distance of over 150 miles. And if he had died and officials wanted to maintain secrecy, it’s unlikely his body would have been transported across the country.
...The Tokyo Shimbun newspaper reported that Kim appears to be undergoing “voluntary isolation” in Wonsan, citing a high-ranking Japanese government official, and quoted North Korean sources as saying he had gone there after one of his bodyguards was found to have the virus. That’s not the sort of thing North Korea would admit publicly, especially given its insistence it has no cases of the virus.
...“Experienced Korea watchers are counseling ‘we don’t know, we have to wait for confirmation, so have another drink,’ ” Klingner said, “while those new to North Korea are taking the rumors at face value and panicking about loss of control of nuclear weapons.”