Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Interesting week we have brewing. Last week I felt I had the easiest play on the board as did 90% of America apparently. Vegas took a bath and watched Baltimore run KC out of the building in the 2nd half of the game winning 30-7 and easily covering the -3.
This week I can argue several ways and I want to explore them and talk about them with all of you. Do you realize we are possibly 48-72 hours away from Seattle hosting the NFC Championship? Think about it. Or Baltimore hosting the AFC Championship. A lot of people feel the money to be mad eis on the home teams that had the week off and I’m not so sure.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3.5) (37)
I really want to take Baltimore again this week. The games are always close and I could make a strong argument that Baltimore should have won the last contest these two played earlier in the season. Ed Reed seems to be healthy and Baltimore didn’t expend that much energy last week. It wasn’t a nail biter down to the wire and their defense made guest appearances in the 2nd half to force a turnover and then go back and sit on the bench. Do you believe in karma? Should Big Ben be allowed to advance further into the playoffs by the powers that be? Remember what they did to Vick last week?
None of that really matters but its food for thought. My problem in this game is I feel Ben is a superior QB to Flacco right now. The Ravens are not going to win running the football all day so you have to assume they go to the air where they have weapons and can use Ray Rice a lot out of the backfield as well. Ray Lewis called Anquan Boldin the minute they traded for him and said to him “The game is in Dallas”…obviously he was talking about the Super Bowl. These types of teams have one goal and only one. To win the Super Bowl. It’s unfortunate that Baltimore plays in the same division with Pittsburgh or otherwise they might have been the 1 or 2 seed in this thing. As I pointed out last week, the Ravens could have been 14-2 or 15-1 this season so they are an elite team. This is not a typical wildcard got lucky and backed into things type of team.
I haven’t spoken much about the Steelers but the reality is they have a great opportunity to win this football game. My problem is with Mendenhall right now. Let’s compare offenses. The Steelers have a better QB but I think Rice/McGahee is much better than the backfield in Pittsburgh plus the OL is stronger for Baltimore. The receivers are close. Heap is playing much better than Heath Miller right now but is there anyone as fast on the Ravens as there is on the Steelers at the WR position? Is Hines Ward and Derrick Mason a draw? These teams are very similar so why not take the points?
Final Score: Baltimore 20…Pittsburgh 17
Green Bay at Atlanta (-2.5) (43.5)
This is a game I want to watch more than I want to bet on it. Is there a reason the over is a bad bet on this game? Atlanta has had 2 weeks to prepare and rest, the Packers have plenty of offense. The Packers are the last team to throw for over 300 yards against Atlanta and I think they will find their spots this week. In fact the more I look at this game and despite the contest being 20-17 last time, that is actually a blessing as Atlanta against good teams tend to hit the over. This year...NO (48), PHI(51), TB(48 and 52), BAL (47), StL(51), SEA(52)…they have had some weeks where they didn’t need ot score as much either but Green Bay should require that they aim for at least 27-30 in this contest. I like the over better than trying to figure who wins this game.
Final Score: 31-24 either way.
Seattle at Chicago (-10) (41)
Seattle is abysmal on the road. These are all losses…@Den 31-14, @St L 20-3, @Oak 33-3, @NO 34-19, @SF 40-21, and @TB 38-15…the problem is one of their only road wins this season was @Chicago 23-20…kind of weird. Seattle after the game last week was exuberant and saying things like what a great opp this was to beat the world champs in the playoffs…the point is they feel like they won the Super bowl last week and a bone chilling 10 degrees with wind is waiting for them in Chicago. New Orleans is built to win in a dome and they played no defense last week. Do you really think Marshawn Lynch would break that run off vs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs? I sure don’t. So while I don’t love Chicago I really can’t come up with many reasons to want to bet on Seattle other than to just be different or start the “We believe” chant. I really am not a huge fan of Chicago but luck seems to be with them this season and they could easily be hosting Green Bay next week in a game that would draw a bonanza for ratings. The Bears have a strong coaching staff with a lot of head coaching experience from top to bottom so that has to help this week with 2 weeks to prepare. I think they go back and find what they did wrong in the first game and make those corrections.
Final Score: Chicago 24…Seattle 10
New York Jets at New England (-9) (45)
There will be a football game here this weekend, right? I keep reading about it being personal for Rex Ryan, and Wes Welker making foot references, and all this is a distraction to avert attention from Sanchez…JC just play the flipping football game already. These two teams are probably equally hated by many and for some if there was a way both teams could lose this football game we would like to see it. I do know Bill Bellichick is an excellent game planner and will have his team ready to walk on water this weekend as they make a Super bowl run. Did the Pats arrive early though? Are they really as good as that record? Yes and no. They don’t make mistakes, it’s really that simple. They are like a wall you hit a ball off of, eventually the wall wins out. Tom Brady has not thrown an interception since Reagan was in office it seems. My gut says take the under and leave the line alone but I understand why folks are grabbing the Pats. 45-24, 45-3, 36-7, 34-3, 38-7…those are the scores in 5 of their last 6 games. They have avg roughly 36-37 points a game since week 8. Maybe the over is the easy play here but I don’t see the Jets scoring a lot of points and moving Wilfork around much to create running lanes. They lost Woody for the rest of the season on the OL and they simply are not a great running team despite the fact they like to run it a lot. Sanchez is going to have to make some plays to win the game and in doing so he probably will turn the ball over and make things even worse. Brady vs Sanchez, you tell me.
Final Score: New England 24…New York 13
My pick 3 this week and I encourage you to post yours for bragging rights are...
Balt +3.5
GB/ATL 43.5 Over
CHI/SEA 41 Under
Good luck everyone and protect your units.
This week I can argue several ways and I want to explore them and talk about them with all of you. Do you realize we are possibly 48-72 hours away from Seattle hosting the NFC Championship? Think about it. Or Baltimore hosting the AFC Championship. A lot of people feel the money to be mad eis on the home teams that had the week off and I’m not so sure.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3.5) (37)
I really want to take Baltimore again this week. The games are always close and I could make a strong argument that Baltimore should have won the last contest these two played earlier in the season. Ed Reed seems to be healthy and Baltimore didn’t expend that much energy last week. It wasn’t a nail biter down to the wire and their defense made guest appearances in the 2nd half to force a turnover and then go back and sit on the bench. Do you believe in karma? Should Big Ben be allowed to advance further into the playoffs by the powers that be? Remember what they did to Vick last week?
None of that really matters but its food for thought. My problem in this game is I feel Ben is a superior QB to Flacco right now. The Ravens are not going to win running the football all day so you have to assume they go to the air where they have weapons and can use Ray Rice a lot out of the backfield as well. Ray Lewis called Anquan Boldin the minute they traded for him and said to him “The game is in Dallas”…obviously he was talking about the Super Bowl. These types of teams have one goal and only one. To win the Super Bowl. It’s unfortunate that Baltimore plays in the same division with Pittsburgh or otherwise they might have been the 1 or 2 seed in this thing. As I pointed out last week, the Ravens could have been 14-2 or 15-1 this season so they are an elite team. This is not a typical wildcard got lucky and backed into things type of team.
I haven’t spoken much about the Steelers but the reality is they have a great opportunity to win this football game. My problem is with Mendenhall right now. Let’s compare offenses. The Steelers have a better QB but I think Rice/McGahee is much better than the backfield in Pittsburgh plus the OL is stronger for Baltimore. The receivers are close. Heap is playing much better than Heath Miller right now but is there anyone as fast on the Ravens as there is on the Steelers at the WR position? Is Hines Ward and Derrick Mason a draw? These teams are very similar so why not take the points?
Final Score: Baltimore 20…Pittsburgh 17
Green Bay at Atlanta (-2.5) (43.5)
This is a game I want to watch more than I want to bet on it. Is there a reason the over is a bad bet on this game? Atlanta has had 2 weeks to prepare and rest, the Packers have plenty of offense. The Packers are the last team to throw for over 300 yards against Atlanta and I think they will find their spots this week. In fact the more I look at this game and despite the contest being 20-17 last time, that is actually a blessing as Atlanta against good teams tend to hit the over. This year...NO (48), PHI(51), TB(48 and 52), BAL (47), StL(51), SEA(52)…they have had some weeks where they didn’t need ot score as much either but Green Bay should require that they aim for at least 27-30 in this contest. I like the over better than trying to figure who wins this game.
Final Score: 31-24 either way.
Seattle at Chicago (-10) (41)
Seattle is abysmal on the road. These are all losses…@Den 31-14, @St L 20-3, @Oak 33-3, @NO 34-19, @SF 40-21, and @TB 38-15…the problem is one of their only road wins this season was @Chicago 23-20…kind of weird. Seattle after the game last week was exuberant and saying things like what a great opp this was to beat the world champs in the playoffs…the point is they feel like they won the Super bowl last week and a bone chilling 10 degrees with wind is waiting for them in Chicago. New Orleans is built to win in a dome and they played no defense last week. Do you really think Marshawn Lynch would break that run off vs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs? I sure don’t. So while I don’t love Chicago I really can’t come up with many reasons to want to bet on Seattle other than to just be different or start the “We believe” chant. I really am not a huge fan of Chicago but luck seems to be with them this season and they could easily be hosting Green Bay next week in a game that would draw a bonanza for ratings. The Bears have a strong coaching staff with a lot of head coaching experience from top to bottom so that has to help this week with 2 weeks to prepare. I think they go back and find what they did wrong in the first game and make those corrections.
Final Score: Chicago 24…Seattle 10
New York Jets at New England (-9) (45)
There will be a football game here this weekend, right? I keep reading about it being personal for Rex Ryan, and Wes Welker making foot references, and all this is a distraction to avert attention from Sanchez…JC just play the flipping football game already. These two teams are probably equally hated by many and for some if there was a way both teams could lose this football game we would like to see it. I do know Bill Bellichick is an excellent game planner and will have his team ready to walk on water this weekend as they make a Super bowl run. Did the Pats arrive early though? Are they really as good as that record? Yes and no. They don’t make mistakes, it’s really that simple. They are like a wall you hit a ball off of, eventually the wall wins out. Tom Brady has not thrown an interception since Reagan was in office it seems. My gut says take the under and leave the line alone but I understand why folks are grabbing the Pats. 45-24, 45-3, 36-7, 34-3, 38-7…those are the scores in 5 of their last 6 games. They have avg roughly 36-37 points a game since week 8. Maybe the over is the easy play here but I don’t see the Jets scoring a lot of points and moving Wilfork around much to create running lanes. They lost Woody for the rest of the season on the OL and they simply are not a great running team despite the fact they like to run it a lot. Sanchez is going to have to make some plays to win the game and in doing so he probably will turn the ball over and make things even worse. Brady vs Sanchez, you tell me.
Final Score: New England 24…New York 13
My pick 3 this week and I encourage you to post yours for bragging rights are...
Balt +3.5
GB/ATL 43.5 Over
CHI/SEA 41 Under
Good luck everyone and protect your units.
Yeah there's definitely some feedback on both ends of the conversation. Not the best quality recording this week as we did have some tech problems.Normally it sounds better, like the week prior:
I don't like either game today as much as yesterday's choices, but I'm leaning toward both favorites. The Hawk scare me a little bit, not really to win, but keep it close. Plus you always have to factor in Jay Cutler. I don't see how the Jets keep pace with the Pats. Sanchez is not playing very well at all, this entire game rests on the Jets D to give them any shot, IMO. I'm liking the Pats today, and will probably only play them. What are you guys doing? Good luck!
