Odell Beckham 1.01 in dynasty and redraft PPR leagues in 2015? (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

explain to me again why, in your mind, we're pegging odb at a level with mike clayton, victor cruz, or greg little.

The only way he is at their level is if he had a catstrophic leg injury and comes back as JAG. Maybe would need two catostrophic leg injuries, plus lose like 4-5 fingers in an accident.

Some people just look at the numbers and not what the player is doing on the field, and how that player looked compared to those other guys.

 

[ghostguy123]

Should he be elevated to Jerry Rice / Randy Moss status after 12 games? Guess that makes more sense. To his owners at least.

No. But you dont need to put him at that status to have him as the #1 player in PPR dynasty.

You can have Rice/Moss a couple tiers ahead of ODB and still have ODB as the #1.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Odell Beckham 1.01

No way.

 

[Gandalf]

Reading this makes me believe that it is probably a good year to trade back in a dynasty PPR start up. Not saying that ODB would be a bad pick at 1.01 but don't see any significant gap between him and Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Andrew Luck.

Yes this is correct

 

[mr roboto]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

Due to scarcity and depending on scoring, QB and then RB for dynasty startup are the most important iMO. 6 promising WRs were drafted this year. How many promising RBs? How about QBs?Luck and Rodgers are CLEAR teir 1 QBs. After that roll the dice. Bell Lacy Murray are CLEAR tier 1 RBs. After that, roll the dice.

Unless there was a Moss or Calvin player you have a cluster of great young WRs.

Interesing, because I think QB and RB are the least important in a dynasty. I would go WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, .etc. in the 1st round of a dynasty startup. In the second round, probably another WR.

I get the scarcity at RB, but RBs are too risky and lose value too quickly in dynasty. I don't see the QB position being scarce at all (in fact, I went with Eli Manning as my QB for several of my teams this year, Ben Roethlisberger in others), although I would take Luck at some point early because he is that good (and super young).

Totally agree. The more dynasty I have played, the more I realize the true young stud WRs are just wayyyy more valuable than QB or RB. Maybe people think they will get the next Tomlinson or something.

And RBs both gain and lose value so quickly that they aren't worth anywhere near the investment of a top tier WR.

You two just proved my point - that a true stud RB or elite young QB is harder to find than a stud WR. That's why getting one (if you can) is more valuable.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Should he be elevated to Jerry Rice / Randy Moss status after 12 games? Guess that makes more sense. To his owners at least.

i've Seen A Lot Of Different Formats, But If you've Got Moss And Rice Drafted Next Year Your League Is Truly unusual

 

[georg013]

Should he be elevated to Jerry Rice / Randy Moss status after 12 games? Guess that makes more sense. To his owners at least.

i've Seen A Lot Of Different Formats, But If you've Got Moss And Rice Drafted Next Year Your League Is Truly unusual

Lol? I think.

 

[cvnpoka]

You just know he has a 2000 and 20 in him. That's worth the 1.1

This is the kind of asinine statement that makes these debates pointless. You are saying you know ODB can do what no other player in the history of the NFL has ever done. Not Jerry Rice, not Randy Moss, not Calvin Johnson, no one. has done what you say YOU KNOW Beckham will do. Seriously? It took an NFL record 700+ pass attempts for Calvin to get 1900 receiving yards, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 2000 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 601 in a season?

It took 2 HOFer QBs throwing 41 TD passes, and Tom Brady with a (at that time) NFL record 50 TD passes to get Rice and Moss to 20+ receiving TDs, but YOU KNOW Beckham will get 20 with Eli, who has never thrown more than 31 in a season?

Could Beckham get those numbers? Maybe, but saying YOU KNOW he will do it, and that's why he should go 1.01 is just dumb.

I could say I KNOW Luck will have a 5500/60 TD season, so that's why he should go 1.01, and that would be equally dumb.

Stating that it is a given that a player (a rookie, no less) will break not 1, but 2 NFL records, AT THE SAME TIME, is the definition of over-hype.

You seem mad.Anyway, he was on a 2131 yard and 16 TD pace over his last 9 games. 2000 and 20 is not unrealistic for him.

1-You didn't say it was not unrealistic in your first post, you said "YOU KNOW" he has it in him. Stating it was a given that ODB would do this is what I called asinine. If you're amending your original statement, that's fine, but it's asinine to suggest that YOU KNOW he will put up ridiculous, video-game type numbers based on a 9-game hot streak.2-Besides that, yes, it is unrealistic. Expecting any player to break not 1 NFL record, but 2, in the same season is unrealistic, especially when you are basing it on a tiny sample size of 9 games.

Calvin Johnson was on pace for 2350 yards over the last 9 games in 2012, he hasn't cracked 1500 in the 2 seasons since.

ADP was on pace for 2570 yards over the last 9 games in 2012, he only gained 1266 in 2013.

Just because a player has a hot streak doesn't mean pro-rating those stats over a full season is realistic.

Yes, you know is hyperbole. Obviously, we don't know. I think he is definitely the #1 dynasty WR and depending on your scoring format is the 1.1 overall. 20 TD would not be an NFL record, so not sure why you keep mentioning breaking 2 NFL records. 2000 yards is coming. 5 of the top 15 WR yardage seasons of all time have come from Calvin, Antonio Brown, Demaryius, & Josh Gordon with Andre at 19 and Julio at 21 this year. Beckham's per game pace counting his 1st 3 stinkers was for the 5th best season of all time as well. It's coming.

I agree, depending on scoring system anf the right circumstances, a WR could be the 1.01 pick. The right circumstances don't currently exist, though. Beckham is in the same tier as a number of their WRs ( especially if you are talking redraft): Brown, Dez, Julio, Calvin, Jordy, Hilton, Cobb, D Thomas, Sanders, Evans, etc. Why take any of those WRs at 1.01, when another WR from the same tier will be available at the end of the 2nd, and the drop off at RB or QB would be much greater? There is no reason to pick WR at the 1.01, unless you are predicting ridiculous numbers (like 2000 & 20).

bc rbs are more volatile and harder to identify and have more risk. so, why not take a wr at both picks?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

There will with little doubt be SOME kind of regression towards the mean with Beckham. Whether that is regression to the mean of tier 1 WRs or regression to the mean of a Victor Cruz (who's first season isn't that far off Beckham's) type guy is the question.

If he "regresses" to the tier 1 WR territory, then he's absolutely worth the 1.01 as he's got ~4 years of youth on the best of those guys. The flipside to that is that there is definitely more risk to him. While there may not have been WRs with a stretch as good of his that fell off substantially, there are a lot of them with stretches nearly as good as his that did. If I told you that either Odell Beckham or Dez Bryant was going to put up 1000/8 in 16 games next year, I think we'd all wager that Beckham was far more likely to be that guy than Dez. This becomes even more likely in that Beckham's situation will change somewhat substantially next year with Cruz coming back.

So, the question is how much of a risk taker are you, and how valuable is super-longterm value to you. Odell Beckham probably has 12 years of play left compared to the ~8 years of Dez/AJ/Julio. Is that extra 4 years worth the added risk that Beckham is the next Cruz? I'm a risk taker so I like Beckham, but I certainly can't fault anyone for putting him behind even the entire Dez/AJ/Julio/Demaryius group. They provide a ton of long term value with far less short term risk.

I really have no idea why I'd be comparing odb to mike clayton, peyton hillis, reuben droughns, or victor cruz.

is half this board just mindless trolling, or do people on here just not watch football and have little to no idea wtf they're talking about?

can you explain to me why I should expect odb to regress to victor cruz's mean?

first of all, just to get some of the nonsense sorted out, victor cruz's first season wasn't anywhere comparable to odb --- in fact, he did basically nothing his first year.

he didn't get much opportunity until his second year when a couple other receivers left or got hurt, because he was undrafted.

just to clue you in a little bit on what we're talking about in this thread -- odb was taken with the 12th pick in the first round.

cruz had a great 2nd year, putting up nearly 100 ypg, but only logging 9 td in his 16 games, while odb was on nearly double that pace.

the following year, cruz actually scored 10 td --- 10 being greater than 9.

it's true, however, that the yardage fell off about 400 yds due to his ypc dropping from a crazy high 19 to a more realistic 13, and maybe more slot usage, but that's from vague memory.

odb was around 14, I believe.

so, I'm still trying to figure out the relevance of victor cruz's existance.

aj green was also an elite wr prospect, getting drafted 4th overall.

his production went up 300/4 in his 2nd year.

julio jones was taken 6th overall, and saw his production bump up 250/2 in his 2nd year.

dez bryant was drafted bottom of the 1st, and while the rookie year comparison might not be fair, once he ramped up to top tier production in his 3rd year he reeled off a steady 3 years of it.

also drafted bottom first, demaryius thomas took a similar 3 years to get going, and once he did he also strung 3 years of top tier production together.

antonio brown doesn't fit the list, but he followed his career year of 1500/8 up with 1700/13

calvin johnson was drafted higher than all these guys --- 2nd overall, but didn't have a historic rookie year.

his 2nd year, however, is when he really emerged with 1300/12, but followed that up with only 5 td in his 3rd year --- regression!!

after 28 td the next 2 years he sat pretty comfortably atop wr rankings as a 'proven' vet, and safe bet, but managed only 5 td again in 2012.

so, why is it I should expect some kind of down year from odb rather than any of these other 'sure thing' wr with a longer track record?

explain to me again why, in your mind, we're pegging odb at a level with mike clayton, victor cruz, or greg little.

This seems a bit over the top, especially given that I said I may very well take ODB at 1.01.

That said, there is certainly an amount of risk to it. I'm not sure how relevant draft slot is once a guy has a 1500 yard season, and a guy like Cruz is clearly better than the draft spot he went in, like so many others. The fact of the matter is that there is more risk to a guy that's had one (or slightly less than one) good season than there is with guys who have done it 3-4 times or more. This is a very basic concept and it's still there whether you choose to bury your head into the sand or not. HIstory is LITTERED with guys that had a breakout season and then fell way off at every position, from every draft slot. We don't even have to go far to find them as the Giants themselves have had two guys that were considered tier 1 dynasty WRs within the last few years and within two years, neither of those guys were even considered fantasy WR1's anymore. ODB certainly looks better than them and it doesn't seem like the same will happen to him, but the risk is certainly there.

You add to this that, on top of that ODB plays with a QB that is probably tied with Andy Dalton as the most volatile of any of the tier 1 WR's QBs, and that he has the situation that will change most heading into next year (another pretty good WR re-entering the lineup next year when Cruz comes back) and again, it seems to me that he would be, by far, the most likely to put up modest numbers outside of injury next year if it were going to happen to one of them.

I'll ask again, if I told you that either ODB or a guy like Dez were going to put up 1000/8 next year despite playing all 16 games without injury, who would you guess it was that did it?

 

[Bayhawks]

I really have no idea why I'd be comparing odb to mike clayton, peyton hillis, reuben droughns, or victor cruz.

is half this board just mindless trolling, or do people on here just not watch football and have little to no idea wtf they're talking about?

can you explain to me why I should expect odb to regress to victor cruz's mean?

first of all, just to get some of the nonsense sorted out, victor cruz's first season wasn't anywhere comparable to odb --- in fact, he did basically nothing his first year.

he didn't get much opportunity until his second year when a couple other receivers left or got hurt, because he was undrafted.

just to clue you in a little bit on what we're talking about in this thread -- odb was taken with the 12th pick in the first round.

cruz had a great 2nd year, putting up nearly 100 ypg, but only logging 9 td in his 16 games, while odb was on nearly double that pace.

the following year, cruz actually scored 10 td --- 10 being greater than 9.

it's true, however, that the yardage fell off about 400 yds due to his ypc dropping from a crazy high 19 to a more realistic 13, and maybe more slot usage, but that's from vague memory.

odb was around 14, I believe.

so, I'm still trying to figure out the relevance of victor cruz's existance.

aj green was also an elite wr prospect, getting drafted 4th overall.

his production went up 300/4 in his 2nd year.

julio jones was taken 6th overall, and saw his production bump up 250/2 in his 2nd year.

dez bryant was drafted bottom of the 1st, and while the rookie year comparison might not be fair, once he ramped up to top tier production in his 3rd year he reeled off a steady 3 years of it.

also drafted bottom first, demaryius thomas took a similar 3 years to get going, and once he did he also strung 3 years of top tier production together.

antonio brown doesn't fit the list, but he followed his career year of 1500/8 up with 1700/13

calvin johnson was drafted higher than all these guys --- 2nd overall, but didn't have a historic rookie year.

his 2nd year, however, is when he really emerged with 1300/12, but followed that up with only 5 td in his 3rd year --- regression!!

after 28 td the next 2 years he sat pretty comfortably atop wr rankings as a 'proven' vet, and safe bet, but managed only 5 td again in 2012.

so, why is it I should expect some kind of down year from odb rather than any of these other 'sure thing' wr with a longer track record?

explain to me again why, in your mind, we're pegging odb at a level with mike clayton, victor cruz, or greg little.

I'm not sure I understand exactly the point of your post, but I'm not trying to be obtuse, so bear with me.

You suggest that we shouldn't compare ODB with guys who had really great hot streaks, but rather that we should compare him to guys like Green, Bryant, Calvin, Antonio, Demaryius, etc. You cite his high draft position as a reason for comparing ODB to these players rather than guys like Cruz, Hillis, Droughns, Clayton, etc. There have been plenty of highly drafted WRs who have been had hot streaks, then never played up to that level again (or never even had that hot streak). Where ODB (or other WRs) were drafted doesn't matter, at this point. He has shown elite production in the NFL, over a short period of time. Whether he can sustain that level over a longer period of time is the question.

It's important to look at his QB, though. Eli has a tendency to lock onto a WR when he doesn't feel like he can trust the other options: he did it in 2009, with Steve Smith (the only other NYG WR that year to play all 16 games was Derek Hagan & the #2 & #3 WRs were rookies); he did it in 2011 with Victor Cruz (the only other WR to play all 16 games was Devin Thomas, although that was Nicks big year, even though he missed a game), and he did it again in 2014.

Granted, ODB is more talented than Smith and Cruz (although I think a healthy Cruz deserves more credit than he's being given in this thread), but the QB hasn't changed. After those 2 big years for Smith and Cruz, they saw fewer targets/game than they did during their hot streaks. If Eli does the same thing again, and doesn't look to ODB as much in 2015, that will be an impact.

That being said, this thread is quickly becoming pointless. ODB will be highly drafted (barring some off-season injury/issue), but he's not going to go 1.01 in serious leagues (unless they have rules that highly value WRs & even then, he shouldn't because of the depth of the top WR tier). People boasting on a FF message board now that they will use the 1.01 pick on him are talking to talk. In dynasty leagues, it would still be a risky pick; other WRs are almost as young, similarly talented, and have shown the ability to produce over a longer period of time. Also, the lack of top young RB/QBs would make those few players more deserving of the 1.01 (unless, again, the scoring rules greatly favors WR).

Arguing over this fact won't change it. You want to ignore the fact that some players blow up for part of a season, then disappear, that's your choice. You want to be more conservative, and don't want to risk a high pick on a relatively unproven player, that's on your. The facts are, ODB was a stud, for part of a season. We don't know if he can continue to be that studly over the long haul. Only time will tell.

 

[fredsavage]

The footballguys expert dynasty rankings have ODB at composite 1 overall currently fwiw

 

[cstu]

The footballguys expert dynasty rankings have ODB at composite 1 overall currently fwiw

No offense to any of the experts, who I do respect, but it's a case of irrational exuberance.

Yes, Beckham is young and very good, but Dez is barely 26, Julio is 24 until Feb. and are far more proven. I find it hard to believe any dynasty owner would trade either straight up for Beckham right now.

 

[ghostguy123]

This isnt about being good. This is about being the most valuable player in fantasy. The 1.01. There are several elite receivers. How many are worth the 1.01.

In redraft none, in dynasty any one of 6-7 WR's going 1st would be a fine move.

Due to RB scarcity i think Bell has to go #1 in redraft and probably dynasty as well, but can't fault someone for taking one of the elite WR's in dynasty leagues.

Luck would be an acceptable pick too. There is no definite #1 pick in dynasty, Luck, Bell, one of the 6ish elite WR's, all good picks there. I guess that implies trading down to pick 6-8 might be best move in dynasty start-ups.

Due to scarcity and depending on scoring, QB and then RB for dynasty startup are the most important iMO. 6 promising WRs were drafted this year. How many promising RBs? How about QBs?Luck and Rodgers are CLEAR teir 1 QBs. After that roll the dice. Bell Lacy Murray are CLEAR tier 1 RBs. After that, roll the dice.

Unless there was a Moss or Calvin player you have a cluster of great young WRs.

Interesing, because I think QB and RB are the least important in a dynasty. I would go WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, WR, .etc. in the 1st round of a dynasty startup. In the second round, probably another WR.

I get the scarcity at RB, but RBs are too risky and lose value too quickly in dynasty. I don't see the QB position being scarce at all (in fact, I went with Eli Manning as my QB for several of my teams this year, Ben Roethlisberger in others), although I would take Luck at some point early because he is that good (and super young).

Totally agree. The more dynasty I have played, the more I realize the true young stud WRs are just wayyyy more valuable than QB or RB. Maybe people think they will get the next Tomlinson or something.

And RBs both gain and lose value so quickly that they aren't worth anywhere near the investment of a top tier WR.

You two just proved my point - that a true stud RB or elite young QB is harder to find than a stud WR. That's why getting one (if you can) is more valuable.

Pretty sure we didnt prove your point. They are harder to find because you never know who they are, and they change so much.

Sure i would take a stud RB for 10 years over a stud WR if i knew 100% fact each would be a stud for that long.

Good luck finding that.

Oh and QB isnt even in the discussion.

 

[mr roboto]

I really have no idea why I'd be comparing odb to mike clayton, peyton hillis, reuben droughns, or victor cruz.

is half this board just mindless trolling, or do people on here just not watch football and have little to no idea wtf they're talking about?

can you explain to me why I should expect odb to regress to victor cruz's mean?

first of all, just to get some of the nonsense sorted out, victor cruz's first season wasn't anywhere comparable to odb --- in fact, he did basically nothing his first year.

he didn't get much opportunity until his second year when a couple other receivers left or got hurt, because he was undrafted.

just to clue you in a little bit on what we're talking about in this thread -- odb was taken with the 12th pick in the first round.

cruz had a great 2nd year, putting up nearly 100 ypg, but only logging 9 td in his 16 games, while odb was on nearly double that pace.

the following year, cruz actually scored 10 td --- 10 being greater than 9.

it's true, however, that the yardage fell off about 400 yds due to his ypc dropping from a crazy high 19 to a more realistic 13, and maybe more slot usage, but that's from vague memory.

odb was around 14, I believe.

so, I'm still trying to figure out the relevance of victor cruz's existance.

aj green was also an elite wr prospect, getting drafted 4th overall.

his production went up 300/4 in his 2nd year.

julio jones was taken 6th overall, and saw his production bump up 250/2 in his 2nd year.

dez bryant was drafted bottom of the 1st, and while the rookie year comparison might not be fair, once he ramped up to top tier production in his 3rd year he reeled off a steady 3 years of it.

also drafted bottom first, demaryius thomas took a similar 3 years to get going, and once he did he also strung 3 years of top tier production together.

antonio brown doesn't fit the list, but he followed his career year of 1500/8 up with 1700/13

calvin johnson was drafted higher than all these guys --- 2nd overall, but didn't have a historic rookie year.

his 2nd year, however, is when he really emerged with 1300/12, but followed that up with only 5 td in his 3rd year --- regression!!

after 28 td the next 2 years he sat pretty comfortably atop wr rankings as a 'proven' vet, and safe bet, but managed only 5 td again in 2012.

so, why is it I should expect some kind of down year from odb rather than any of these other 'sure thing' wr with a longer track record?

explain to me again why, in your mind, we're pegging odb at a level with mike clayton, victor cruz, or greg little.

I'm not sure I understand exactly the point of your post, but I'm not trying to be obtuse, so bear with me.You suggest that we shouldn't compare ODB with guys who had really great hot streaks, but rather that we should compare him to guys like Green, Bryant, Calvin, Antonio, Demaryius, etc. You cite his high draft position as a reason for comparing ODB to these players rather than guys like Cruz, Hillis, Droughns, Clayton, etc. There have been plenty of highly drafted WRs who have been had hot streaks, then never played up to that level again (or never even had that hot streak). Where ODB (or other WRs) were drafted doesn't matter, at this point. He has shown elite production in the NFL, over a short period of time. Whether he can sustain that level over a longer period of time is the question.

It's important to look at his QB, though. Eli has a tendency to lock onto a WR when he doesn't feel like he can trust the other options: he did it in 2009, with Steve Smith (the only other NYG WR that year to play all 16 games was Derek Hagan & the #2 & #3 WRs were rookies); he did it in 2011 with Victor Cruz (the only other WR to play all 16 games was Devin Thomas, although that was Nicks big year, even though he missed a game), and he did it again in 2014.

Granted, ODB is more talented than Smith and Cruz (although I think a healthy Cruz deserves more credit than he's being given in this thread), but the QB hasn't changed. After those 2 big years for Smith and Cruz, they saw fewer targets/game than they did during their hot streaks. If Eli does the same thing again, and doesn't look to ODB as much in 2015, that will be an impact.

That being said, this thread is quickly becoming pointless. ODB will be highly drafted (barring some off-season injury/issue), but he's not going to go 1.01 in serious leagues (unless they have rules that highly value WRs & even then, he shouldn't because of the depth of the top WR tier). People boasting on a FF message board now that they will use the 1.01 pick on him are talking to talk. In dynasty leagues, it would still be a risky pick; other WRs are almost as young, similarly talented, and have shown the ability to produce over a longer period of time. Also, the lack of top young RB/QBs would make those few players more deserving of the 1.01 (unless, again, the scoring rules greatly favors WR).

Arguing over this fact won't change it. You want to ignore the fact that some players blow up for part of a season, then disappear, that's your choice. You want to be more conservative, and don't want to risk a high pick on a relatively unproven player, that's on your. The facts are, ODB was a stud, for part of a season. We don't know if he can continue to be that studly over the long haul. Only time will tell.

Absolutely great post.

 

[fredsavage]

It was clear after their rookie years that Julio and AJG were special. They didn't have elite tier 1 stats from day one but the eye test against good competition is the most important single factor for me in FF, while I obviously consider other aspects like stats and situation. Beckham has it all. You may have some arbitrary number of games that you need to see a player excel in to feel comfortable ranking them highly but to call others who have seen enough "irrational" is quite arrogant.

 

[mr roboto]

It was clear after their rookie years that Julio and AJG were special. They didn't have elite tier 1 stats from day one but the eye test against good competition is the most important single factor for me in FF, while I obviously consider other aspects like stats and situation. Beckham has it all. You may have some arbitrary number of games that you need to see a player excel in to feel comfortable ranking them highly but to call others who have seen enough "irrational" is quite arrogant.

That he's special isn't irrational. That he is clearly more special than AJ, Julio, Dez is irrational exuberance. It's based on taking numbers from this year and projecting out.

 

[Gandalf]

The footballguys expert dynasty rankings have ODB at composite 1 overall currently fwiw

No offense to any of the experts, who I do respect, but it's a case of irrational exuberance.

Yes, Beckham is young and very good, but Dez is barely 26, Julio is 24 until Feb. and are far more proven. I find it hard to believe any dynasty owner would trade either straight up for Beckham right now.

I agree with this 100%

 

[ghostguy123]

It was clear after their rookie years that Julio and AJG were special. They didn't have elite tier 1 stats from day one but the eye test against good competition is the most important single factor for me in FF, while I obviously consider other aspects like stats and situation. Beckham has it all. You may have some arbitrary number of games that you need to see a player excel in to feel comfortable ranking them highly but to call others who have seen enough "irrational" is quite arrogant.

Right. Several of the current top wrs were ranked and drafted right at the top after their rookie years. Maybe not #1 but damn close.

Some people discount the eye test for whatever reason. Maybe their eyes are bad or maybe they dont know what they are looking at.

I dont personally put Beckham at #1 cause i am generally a little risk averse with my philosophy. Dez and julio are my top two. If i was in a total rebuild though, ODB would be my top target to acquire.

 

[georg013]

This time last year, many experts had Gio Bernard as the top RB in fantasy, fwiw.

 

[ghostguy123]

It was clear after their rookie years that Julio and AJG were special. They didn't have elite tier 1 stats from day one but the eye test against good competition is the most important single factor for me in FF, while I obviously consider other aspects like stats and situation. Beckham has it all. You may have some arbitrary number of games that you need to see a player excel in to feel comfortable ranking them highly but to call others who have seen enough "irrational" is quite arrogant.

That he's special isn't irrational. That he is clearly more special than AJ, Julio, Dez is irrational exuberance. It's based on taking numbers from this year and projecting out.

Or you could, ya know, just watch him play. I didnt even realize till a few days ago he actually scored 300 in ppr leagues. I really didnt care what he scored, but that sure doesnt hurt.

Only guys i prefer more are julio and dez. Call me irrational i dont mind.

 

[ghostguy123]

This time last year, many experts had Gio Bernard as the top RB in fantasy, fwiw.

Another reason to value top rbs far less than top wrs.Not a real good analogy or comparison though. RB a totally different animal.

 

[mr roboto]

It was clear after their rookie years that Julio and AJG were special. They didn't have elite tier 1 stats from day one but the eye test against good competition is the most important single factor for me in FF, while I obviously consider other aspects like stats and situation. Beckham has it all. You may have some arbitrary number of games that you need to see a player excel in to feel comfortable ranking them highly but to call others who have seen enough "irrational" is quite arrogant.

That he's special isn't irrational. That he is clearly more special than AJ, Julio, Dez is irrational exuberance. It's based on taking numbers from this year and projecting out.

Or you could, ya know, just watch him play. I didnt even realize till a few days ago he actually scored 300 in ppr leagues. I really didnt care what he scored, but that sure doesnt hurt.

Only guys i prefer more are julio and dez. Call be irrational i dont mind.

Do you ####### read posts you quote?!?? I said he's special. I said I liked Dez and Julio better. So we agree. Cut the snark.

 

[Gandalf]

It was clear after their rookie years that Julio and AJG were special. They didn't have elite tier 1 stats from day one but the eye test against good competition is the most important single factor for me in FF, while I obviously consider other aspects like stats and situation. Beckham has it all. You may have some arbitrary number of games that you need to see a player excel in to feel comfortable ranking them highly but to call others who have seen enough "irrational" is quite arrogant.

It's not arrogant to disagree vehemently with another's opinion. I actually doubt that when real money was on the line in dynasty leagues ANY of the FBG experts - who I have great respect for - would pick OBJ #1 overall. I just don't believe they truly feel this way after 3/4 a season. I think right now he is overvalued because come draft day I don't think he goes number 1 in new dynasty leagues. Furthermore, I have a feeling that many of the posters in this forum supporting OBJ as the #1 overall pick currently own OBJ and are hence biased.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wish i owned him anywhere. Will be trying. Hopefully they feel more risk averse than i do

 

[Gandalf]

Wish i owned him anywhere. Will be trying. Hopefully they feel more risk averse than i do

I will try to own him too but I fear his adp is going to be too rich for my blood in most leagues.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wish i owned him anywhere. Will be trying. Hopefully they feel more risk averse than i do

I will try to own him too but I fear his adp is going to be too rich for my blood in most leagues.

I would likely pay top 5-10 prices.Just depends on the exact deal. But will definitely make some strong offers

 

[Gandalf]

Wish i owned him anywhere. Will be trying. Hopefully they feel more risk averse than i do

I will try to own him too but I fear his adp is going to be too rich for my blood in most leagues.

I would likely pay top 5-10 prices.Just depends on the exact deal. But will definitely make some strong offers

5-10 feels right to me.

 

[mr roboto]

I'd draft him early 2nd in a 12 team non PPR redraft. But not if Dez and Julio were there still.

He's absilutely in the tier 1 dynasty WRs which is a huge compliment for a rookie with 12 games.

I wouldn't draft a WR at 1 in a startup dynasty though. Not ODB or any other WR.

 

[ghostguy123]

I'd draft him early 2nd in a 12 team non PPR redraft. But not if Dez and Julio were there still.

He's absilutely in the tier 1 dynasty WRs which is a huge compliment for a rookie with 12 games.

I wouldn't draft a WR at 1 in a startup dynasty though. Not ODB or any other WR.

Non ppr is completely different. I dont do any non ppr so no idea where i put him

 

[Bayhawks]

It was clear after their rookie years that Julio and AJG were special. They didn't have elite tier 1 stats from day one but the eye test against good competition is the most important single factor for me in FF, while I obviously consider other aspects like stats and situation. Beckham has it all. You may have some arbitrary number of games that you need to see a player excel in to feel comfortable ranking them highly but to call others who have seen enough "irrational" is quite arrogant.

It's extremely easy, after-the-fact, to say "this guy was special, I could see it," or "that guy was over-rated, I could see it." I'm pretty sure next year, we'll have some people from this very thread doing just that: "see, I told you ODB was special," OR "see, I told you ODB was just another guy who rode hot streak."

 

[ghostguy123]

I had no idea he was that special. Now i do.

Just like after last year i had no idea Leveon Bell would turn into a completely different player. Now i do.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

This time last year, many experts had Gio Bernard as the top RB in fantasy, fwiw.

how do you define expert?

every year there are a lot of 'experts' who have all kinds of opinions on all kinds of players.

personally, I drafted hill in both my leagues thinking he would take gio's lunch -- took longer than I expected.

 

[ghostguy123]

This time last year, many experts had Gio Bernard as the top RB in fantasy, fwiw.

how do you define expert?

every year there are a lot of 'experts' who have all kinds of opinions on all kinds of players.

personally, I drafted hill in both my leagues thinking he would take gio's lunch -- took longer than I expected.

Yeah, many "experts" say all kinds of dumb stuff. They also say a lot of stuff that pans out. That's called fantasy football. Much of it is out of anyones control but the luck monster.

OBD might suck forever. Guess what, calvin migth suck forever, so might Julio. Demaryius might die in a plane crash, would that make someone who ranked him low "right"??

If I claim to be an expert and I say ODB was a flash in the pan, and next week he loses a leg in a train accident, does that make me "right" and enhance my expertness????

 

[mr roboto]

Of course no one can tell the future. FF is mostly luck with a bit of value trading and mass psychology mixed in. Dynasty is truly a long con because you can have a consensus top 5 dynasty guy at a position and if he busts the next year you are SOL (TRich, Nicks, Stewart etc).

The point is to use the best information and process to make decisions and trust that process. For me to declare a guy literally the most valuable player in the league (which is what you're saying if you take a guy at 1.01 in a start up) he has to show more than 12 games.

Eli's aging. Cruz will come back. 2 things that are of mild concern. And he's only done it for 12 games.

If I had him and could trade him for Dez + a 3rd or something I'd run for the hills laughing. Could I turn out to be wrong? Of course. But right now all I can do is apply a rubric to my evaluation.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Wish i owned him anywhere. Will be trying. Hopefully they feel more risk averse than i do

I'm a Calvin owner thinking of making an over-the-top offer for Beckham, reading this thread isn't helping me push down that urge.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Of course no one can tell the future. FF is mostly luck with a bit of value trading and mass psychology mixed in. Dynasty is truly a long con because you can have a consensus top 5 dynasty guy at a position and if he busts the next year you are SOL (TRich, Nicks, Stewart etc).

The point is to use the best information and process to make decisions and trust that process. For me to declare a guy literally the most valuable player in the league (which is what you're saying if you take a guy at 1.01 in a start up) he has to show more than 12 games.

Eli's aging. Cruz will come back. 2 things that are of mild concern. And he's only done it for 12 games.

If I had him and could trade him for Dez + a 3rd or something I'd run for the hills laughing. Could I turn out to be wrong? Of course. But right now all I can do is apply a rubric to my evaluation.

Eli Is Aging, So you'd Trade For Dez -- Ok

Solid Shark Pool logic

 

[ghostguy123]

Wish i owned him anywhere. Will be trying. Hopefully they feel more risk averse than i do

I'm a Calvin owner thinking of making an over-the-top offer for Beckham, reading this thread isn't helping me push down that urge.

Just offer Calvin straight up and see what happens.

He wont take it, but its a good starting offer

 

[Banger]

The footballguys expert dynasty rankings have ODB at composite 1 overall currently fwiw

No offense to any of the experts, who I do respect, but it's a case of irrational exuberance.

Yes, Beckham is young and very good, but Dez is barely 26, Julio is 24 until Feb. and are far more proven. I find it hard to believe any dynasty owner would trade either straight up for Beckham right now.

Julio had his best season this season and Beckham put up better numbers...what has he proven? Why is he considered "safer"?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I really have no idea why I'd be comparing odb to mike clayton, peyton hillis, reuben droughns, or victor cruz.

is half this board just mindless trolling, or do people on here just not watch football and have little to no idea wtf they're talking about?

can you explain to me why I should expect odb to regress to victor cruz's mean?

first of all, just to get some of the nonsense sorted out, victor cruz's first season wasn't anywhere comparable to odb --- in fact, he did basically nothing his first year.

he didn't get much opportunity until his second year when a couple other receivers left or got hurt, because he was undrafted.

just to clue you in a little bit on what we're talking about in this thread -- odb was taken with the 12th pick in the first round.

cruz had a great 2nd year, putting up nearly 100 ypg, but only logging 9 td in his 16 games, while odb was on nearly double that pace.

the following year, cruz actually scored 10 td --- 10 being greater than 9.

it's true, however, that the yardage fell off about 400 yds due to his ypc dropping from a crazy high 19 to a more realistic 13, and maybe more slot usage, but that's from vague memory.

odb was around 14, I believe.

so, I'm still trying to figure out the relevance of victor cruz's existance.

aj green was also an elite wr prospect, getting drafted 4th overall.

his production went up 300/4 in his 2nd year.

julio jones was taken 6th overall, and saw his production bump up 250/2 in his 2nd year.

dez bryant was drafted bottom of the 1st, and while the rookie year comparison might not be fair, once he ramped up to top tier production in his 3rd year he reeled off a steady 3 years of it.

also drafted bottom first, demaryius thomas took a similar 3 years to get going, and once he did he also strung 3 years of top tier production together.

antonio brown doesn't fit the list, but he followed his career year of 1500/8 up with 1700/13

calvin johnson was drafted higher than all these guys --- 2nd overall, but didn't have a historic rookie year.

his 2nd year, however, is when he really emerged with 1300/12, but followed that up with only 5 td in his 3rd year --- regression!!

after 28 td the next 2 years he sat pretty comfortably atop wr rankings as a 'proven' vet, and safe bet, but managed only 5 td again in 2012.

so, why is it I should expect some kind of down year from odb rather than any of these other 'sure thing' wr with a longer track record?

explain to me again why, in your mind, we're pegging odb at a level with mike clayton, victor cruz, or greg little.

I'm not sure I understand exactly the point of your post, but I'm not trying to be obtuse, so bear with me.

You suggest that we shouldn't compare ODB with guys who had really great hot streaks, but rather that we should compare him to guys like Green, Bryant, Calvin, Antonio, Demaryius, etc.

you could compare him to a chair if you want, because they both have legs, but I don't think it would be very productive.

 

[ghostguy123]

I can not think of any accurate comparisons of any players in the past who did what Beckham did, looked as good as he did doing it, then faltered to become someone of little value.

 

[Ernol]

The footballguys expert dynasty rankings have ODB at composite 1 overall currently fwiw

No offense to any of the experts, who I do respect, but it's a case of irrational exuberance.

Yes, Beckham is young and very good, but Dez is barely 26, Julio is 24 until Feb. and are far more proven. I find it hard to believe any dynasty owner would trade either straight up for Beckham right now.

Big difference between barely 22 (Beckham) and barely 26 (Dez) imo (or even almost 25 Julio). Value is close enough where I could see a younger oriented team/owner preferring Beckham straight up.

Barely 26 sounds good right now. This time next year, barely 27 (where Demaryius is now) won't sound nearly as good. Age is starting to become a factor for the once super young studs of Calvin, Dez, Julio, AJ Green and Demaryius Thomas. There comes a time where owners should be taking risks with their stars to move ahead or stay on top (or risk getting "stuck" like I did in a few leagues with former stud Andre Johnson). A number of my dynasty teams roster three or four of those players, so sizing up the next generation of Odell Beckham, Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans this offseason will be priority one. The time to trade in for the new model may be sooner rather than later.

 

[Bayhawks]

I can not think of any accurate comparisons of any players in the past who did what Beckham did, looked as good as he did doing it, then faltered to become someone of little value.

That's the catch, isn't it? By putting that qualifier in, you're allowing yourself an out, to say "he might have had a similar hot streak, but he didn't look as good as ODB did." How Beckham (or another player) "looks" is subjective; the "eyeball" test, if you will.

Objectively, a number of players have had similar hot streaks to Beckham: Cruz was already mentioned, another is Drew Bennett: last 8 games of 2004: 79 targets, 47 receptions, 859 yards, 18.3 YPR, 10 TD, 18.24 FF points/game. Very similar to ODB's hot streak: 121 targets, 85 receptions, 1233 yards, 14.5 YPR, 11 TD, 18.9 FF points/game.

Obviously, one could say "Bennett didn't look as good as ODB does," but that is subjective. The fact is that Bennett had a similar streak of hot games to close out a season, then never came close to matching those numbers.

 

[Gandalf]

I can not think of any accurate comparisons of any players in the past who did what Beckham did, looked as good as he did doing it, then faltered to become someone of little value.

I would say off the top of my head that Keenan Allen is close. At the end of last year dynasty rankings had him as a low WR1. He pretty much fell of the face of the earth as a sophomore.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

first of all, just to get some of the nonsense sorted out, victor cruz's first season wasn't anywhere comparable to odb --- in fact, he did basically nothing his first year.

It wasn't "basically" nothing, unless you want to count preseason where he has a huge game against the Jets, it was "actually" nothing. He was placed on IR before the season started.

 

[Banger]

I can not think of any accurate comparisons of any players in the past who did what Beckham did, looked as good as he did doing it, then faltered to become someone of little value.

That's the catch, isn't it? By putting that qualifier in, you're allowing yourself an out, to say "he might have had a similar hot streak, but he didn't look as good as ODB did." How Beckham (or another player) "looks" is subjective; the "eyeball" test, if you will.

Objectively, a number of players have had similar hot streaks to Beckham: Cruz was already mentioned, another is Drew Bennett: last 8 games of 2004: 79 targets, 47 receptions, 859 yards, 18.3 YPR, 10 TD, 18.24 FF points/game. Very similar to ODB's hot streak: 121 targets, 85 receptions, 1233 yards, 14.5 YPR, 11 TD, 18.9 FF points/game.

Obviously, one could say "Bennett didn't look as good as ODB does," but that is subjective. The fact is that Bennett had a similar streak of hot games to close out a season, then never came close to matching those numbers.

what are your projections for Beckham next year?

 

[SayWhat?]

I can not think of any accurate comparisons of any players in the past who did what Beckham did, looked as good as he did doing it, then faltered to become someone of little value.

That's the catch, isn't it? By putting that qualifier in, you're allowing yourself an out, to say "he might have had a similar hot streak, but he didn't look as good as ODB did." How Beckham (or another player) "looks" is subjective; the "eyeball" test, if you will.

Objectively, a number of players have had similar hot streaks to Beckham: Cruz was already mentioned, another is Drew Bennett: last 8 games of 2004: 79 targets, 47 receptions, 859 yards, 18.3 YPR, 10 TD, 18.24 FF points/game. Very similar to ODB's hot streak: 121 targets, 85 receptions, 1233 yards, 14.5 YPR, 11 TD, 18.9 FF points/game.

Obviously, one could say "Bennett didn't look as good as ODB does," but that is subjective. The fact is that Bennett had a similar streak of hot games to close out a season, then never came close to matching those numbers.

Of course how a player looks is subjective. But if you're basing your player assessments off of historical statistics, you're never going to be ahead of the curve when evaluating and valuing players. Thus, you'll rarely be buying players low or selling players high so you're margin for error for improving your team decreases significantly. You'll have a difficult time acquiring the breakout studs because by the time you're comfortable with that player as an elite option, their price will have solidified to where there's no benefit to acquiring them.

Any player in the NFL can catch lightning in a bottle for a stretch of games, heck even up to half a season. From that standpoint, I get why some are so dismissive of what Beckham did the last half of this season and liken it to what Drew Bennett did. "If Drew Bennett can do it and regress, then why couldn't Beckham" seems a logical question. That said, if you watched Beckham play week in and week out and weren't completely and utterly blown away by his performances, then I'm not sure that anything anyone says is going to sway you from your standpoint of "lets see it for a full season." It's accurate that it's subjective to say that Beckham looked as good as he did putting up the numbers that he did but the truth of the matter is that while that's a subjective statement, it seems an apt one.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Exactly right, saywhat. He looks like he's playing a different game than his competition, which is even more important than the raw stats which were spectacular. He could regress or be triple teamed and slow down or whatever, but I trust him as much as any WR and he's much younger than any of them that are on the tier 1.

 

[fredsavage]

If you think Drew Bennett and Keenan Allen look anything like ODB on the field, I'll just say I "vehemently disagree" lol

 

[(HULK)]

Exactly right, saywhat. He looks like he's playing a different game than his competition, which is even more important than the raw stats which were spectacular. He could regress or be triple teamed and slow down or whatever, but I trust him as much as any WR and he's much younger than any of them that are on the tier 1.

No CB in the NFC East can cover him right now. Even with double coverage. That may change in the offseason though.

 

[Bayhawks]

I can not think of any accurate comparisons of any players in the past who did what Beckham did, looked as good as he did doing it, then faltered to become someone of little value.

That's the catch, isn't it? By putting that qualifier in, you're allowing yourself an out, to say "he might have had a similar hot streak, but he didn't look as good as ODB did." How Beckham (or another player) "looks" is subjective; the "eyeball" test, if you will.

Objectively, a number of players have had similar hot streaks to Beckham: Cruz was already mentioned, another is Drew Bennett: last 8 games of 2004: 79 targets, 47 receptions, 859 yards, 18.3 YPR, 10 TD, 18.24 FF points/game. Very similar to ODB's hot streak: 121 targets, 85 receptions, 1233 yards, 14.5 YPR, 11 TD, 18.9 FF points/game.

Obviously, one could say "Bennett didn't look as good as ODB does," but that is subjective. The fact is that Bennett had a similar streak of hot games to close out a season, then never came close to matching those numbers.

what are your projections for Beckham next year?

Rough projections? Without looking at how Cruz' rehab goes, what adds they make (at OL, WR, TE, RB) in FA/Draft, how the other young WRs look during the offseason, etc?

Assuming ODB gets WR1 looks: 150 targets, 100 catches, 1400 yards, 9 TDs.

I gave him 150 targets, b/c even though he was on a pace for like 175 targets, his last 4 games were crazy-high. Prior to that, he was on pace for around 130 targets. I split the difference, and 150 is around the number of targets Eli has traditionally given to this WR1.

I gave him 100 catches, b/c even though he caught 70% of his targets this year, that is an elite catch %. He could do it again, but I won't project it. I gave him a 67% catch rate, which is still pretty good.

I dropped his YPR to 14, since few WRS who get that many catches average more than that. I think a 14.0 YPR would be top-10 in the history of the NFL when a WR has 100+ catches.

I dropped his TD total to 9. I understand he was on pace for 16, but without a proven track record in the NFL to look at, I looked at his college career. he scored 12 TOTAL receiving TDs in his 3 years at LSU. Until he proves otherwise, I'm going to consider his rookie TD rate to be an anomaly.

Those numbers would have made ODB WR#9 this year. Definitely a top WR, but not worthy of the 1.01 pick, IMO.