Off the Rails...Biggest Risks to Your Teams in 2012 (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

I was having a conversation with a "normal" football fan this weekend, someone that watches games most Sundays and plays in a couple of fantasy leagues, but is by no means intensely focused on the details. He drafts on gut and has enough knowledge of his team and their divisional opponents to sound reasonable but doesn't have details beyond that. I would say he's much closer to the average NFL fan and fantasy player that all of us.

With that in mind, he was asking me about projections and all the analysis we do, and if it frustrates me that so much of what we expect to happen doesn't work out. That led to a discussion of why projections are difficult in the best of circumstances, and why football is probably the toughest sport on that front. But we also talked about the value of projections and rankings in spite of the fact many will not come to fruition. The idea that the goal is to make your bets educated and try to say garner 60% hit rate while the average person in your league if flipping a coin. He liked that concept.

As the conversation meandered, it got me thinking that there are always linchpins to every belief. Teams can succeed or fail in spite of unexpected adversity (or prosperity), but there are some angles that are insurmountable. For example, the Packers still won the Super Bowl in spite of losing Jermichael Finley two years ago, but they likely would have no shot if Rodgers got hurt.

So the point of this thread is to isolate, analyze and discuss the KEY ISSUES that could derail your current assumptions about a team.

For example, a lot of people think my Eagles are set for a rebound. And that's understandable given the talent on the roster. But here are things that I think could completely derail expectations:

1) Left Tackle -- Demetress Bell is hardly a durable commodity, and King Dunlap could be one of the worst LTs in the NFL if forced into the lineup

2) Secondary -- Many believe the Eagles defense began to gel last year and the full offseason will work wonders for Luis Castillo and Company. We also significantly upgraded our linebacker depth this offseason. But the Eagles got rid of Asante Samuel and are now relying rather heavily on Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie -- a player that has ranked near the very bottom of PFF's CB rankings for the last few years. And Nnamdi Asomugha didn't come close to living up to his billing as the key free agent of 2011. If that was due to scheme, fine. But what if it's due to something else? If the Eagles secondary doesn't play up to baseline expectations, things could be a lot tougher on this team than the Vegas oddsmakers believe.

So let's hear what you think about your team and the KEY linchpin assumptions that need to pan out in order to fulfill expectations.

 

[rzrback77]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine.

However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine. However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

I think we could include injuries to starting quarterbacks in almost any playoff-contending team as something. On the Saints, one thing I keep hearing from detractors is that Sean Payton's absence is going to be a big deal. Maybe it will be, but how quickly people forget that Pete Carmichael called plays when Payton got hurt and the offense didn't skip a beat.

 

[need2know]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine. However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

I think we could include injuries to starting quarterbacks in almost any playoff-contending team as something. On the Saints, one thing I keep hearing from detractors is that Sean Payton's absence is going to be a big deal. Maybe it will be, but how quickly people forget that Pete Carmichael called plays when Payton got hurt and the offense didn't skip a beat.

I think payton being gone along with the def changes/suspensions will really hurt the saints defense this year. I dont think the offense misses a beat. Brees and the offense will have to score more to win games which means brees could actually be more valuable this season.

 

[DerekR]

Jamall Charles as Eric Berry going down again

 

[butcher boy]

49ers

A lot of people expect the 49ers to do well if not win the Surperbowl and I tend to agree to a point, but there are a couple main things in my mind that could derail all of that.

1.) Schedule - Yes, they still play the NFC West, but outside of the division, the schedule is much tougher than last year with games against Green Bay, New England, Detroit, and New Orleans, many of these on the road. The 49ers start the season playing at Green Bay, then Detroit, so an 0-2 start is entirely possible, which could put coach Harbaugh to the test early to keep the team together and focused.

2.) Turnover Differential - The 49ers defense is great, no doubt, but last year's turnover differential is going to be hard to repeat.

3.) Running game - Because of all the WR signings this year, nobody talks much about the 49ers running game which has been the focus of the offense for so long. Everybody is penciling Gore in to start the inevitable decline in production every running back faces. If this does happen, I worry how long Harbaugh will wait to give Hunter more snaps, and whether he can replace Gore's productivity.

 

[MAC_32]

Cleveland

-Pat Shurmur, and 2 retreads as coordinators - it's fine as long as Shurmur improves (dramatically) but if he flounders again the replacements will come from in-house and are not inspiring

-Mistakes on offense because the best play makers have little-to-no pro experience

-Lack of leadership leading to mistakes on all 3 sides of the ball, special teams too

-How such a young team will respond if/when they struggle out of the gate with a regime that is under increasing amounts of pressure to right the ship

-Defensive line depth with Phil Taylor out, tired out as the season went on, especially in the 4th quarter

-Dmitri Patterson a/o Buster Skrine must step up because another season with Sheldon Brown outside will be bad for the pass defense

-Another season of 16 games from Thomas & Mack, can get by with injuries just about anywhere else on the line though

 

[rzrback77]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine. However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

I think we could include injuries to starting quarterbacks in almost any playoff-contending team as something. On the Saints, one thing I keep hearing from detractors is that Sean Payton's absence is going to be a big deal. Maybe it will be, but how quickly people forget that Pete Carmichael called plays when Payton got hurt and the offense didn't skip a beat.

I think payton being gone along with the def changes/suspensions will really hurt the saints defense this year. I dont think the offense misses a beat. Brees and the offense will have to score more to win games which means brees could actually be more valuable this season.

Which is the point of my initial response. I do not think that the head coach will be missed as much as many think. I beleive that Brees and the offense will continue to roll up points. They may not win as many games as their defense could be worse, but they will continue to score a lot as long as Brees is in control.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Detroit Lions

Lack of discipline/maturity/leadership. This offseason has magnified this concern for the Lions. The problem was also very evident on the field last year indicated by lost composure and penalties. Someone needs to step-up on both sides of the ball and get these guys on the right focus pattern otherwise they will experience a setback in the win column.

I heard on Colin Cowherd this morning that in the last decade 29 teams went from having a losing season to a 10 win season the next year. 26 out of 29 teams that did that followed up the next season with a losing season. Example going 4-12 to 10-6 to 5-11.

I believe the offense can continue to make strides and the defense will be better than last year. The mental side of the game will decide the fate of Detroit this year.

 

[gandalas]

Cleveland (an opposite viewpoint)

Well, seeing as Vegas expectations are for us to not win a SINGLE game (underdog in all 16), here is what needs to happen to derail THOSE expectations:

1) Weedon must provide the deep ball to force opposing safeties out of the box, which leads to...

2) Trent Richardson must prove he was worthy of the #3 overall pick, and put up a season like Hillis in '10

3) Greg Little must provide more down-field catches, and someone needs to step up at #2 (Gordon/Massaquoi)

4) Joe Thomas and the rest of the line needs to stay healthy.

5) Defense needs to stay strong against pass, and pick it up against the run.

6) Advancement of playmakers at the TE position (Cameron/Watson/Moore)

If any or all of these happen, then I forsee us beating the Vegas oddsmakers and winning at least 2 games!

 

[rlwomack]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine. However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

I think we could include injuries to starting quarterbacks in almost any playoff-contending team as something. On the Saints, one thing I keep hearing from detractors is that Sean Payton's absence is going to be a big deal. Maybe it will be, but how quickly people forget that Pete Carmichael called plays when Payton got hurt and the offense didn't skip a beat.

I think payton being gone along with the def changes/suspensions will really hurt the saints defense this year. I dont think the offense misses a beat. Brees and the offense will have to score more to win games which means brees could actually be more valuable this season.

Which is the point of my initial response. I do not think that the head coach will be missed as much as many think. I beleive that Brees and the offense will continue to roll up points. They may not win as many games as their defense could be worse, but they will continue to score a lot as long as Brees is in control.

I agree that the offense shouldn't really skip a beat unless a skilled position player goes down with an injury. I actually think their defense will be as good or better than last year. The D was nowhere near as good as the 2009 D, and with Lofton and Hawthorne at LB (upgrades at that spot), I think it could be improved.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Kansas City Chiefs:

I think many people expect them to improve with the return of Charles, Berry, and Moeaki and the additions of Winston, Boss, Hillis, Poe, etc.....

I think this could get derailed by:

1. Matt Cassel staying healthy....

 

[packseasontix]

Packers

1. Rodgers getting hurt - drops them to a .500 team or worse

2. 2 or 3 of (Nelson, Jennings, Finley, Cobb, Jones) hurt

3. Giving up 40+ points a game

4. Home field advantage (personally I think Rodgers does better in domes and warm sunny weather)

 

[RalphMouth]

Peyton Manning-

His health is the difference between a 4-12 and 12-4 season.

If he doesn't play Decker and Thomas will have a bad season.

 

[mr roboto]

Vikings

I am assuming (contrary to many) that Ponder will become a decent to very good QB. I think his floor for production by year 3 is Flacco, while his ceiling is somewhere around Schaub/Cutler or even Romo.

If his injuries keep popping up, or his poor reading through progressions from last year doesn't improve, we will again be looking for an older FA QB to come in and rescue the team.

I'm on record with friends of mine in our fantasy league (mostly bears fans) that the Vikings will play 500 ball at the end of the season. Not for the whole season, but the 2nd half.

I'm expecting them to be in the wildcard hunt next year. This is based on Ponder improving. And becoming a top-half QB. If he fails to improve, I rescind these projections.

 

[LawFitz]

Raiders -

How will the offense react to the loss of Hugh Jackson? OL improved. QB theoretically improved. DMC healthy? WR improved. There is a lot to like here if it gels. New OC - Greg Knapp - is a big step down from Jackson IMO.

Defense always had talent, but now will have modern NFL schematics. LB and CB are concerns, but I'm actually pretty optimistic about this side of the ball, given new HC and DC are young, heralded defensive minds. It's not like the D is talentless; quite the opposite, actually.

I suspect the Raiders will surprise on the upside on the strength of OL, running game and defensive coaching. Single biggest risk factor is DMC's health, followed by how well Knapp and Carson mesh.

 

[gibfunk]

Bucs -

Although the team can't get much worse than it did under the last regime, I have mixed feelings about where we stack up this year.

The offense will definitely be more dynamic with the additions of Nicks and VJax. Realistically, the OL can be the best in the NFL if all the starters stay healthy. The addition of Martin in the backfield adds a great amount of versatility to the gameplan.

The major IF for this football team is the DL. The past few years we have loaded up on high priced talent in the draft and for the most part had the majority of the players miss considerable time. Coaching schemes under Raheem probably played a major part in the inept rush defense, along with youth, but injuries have been our greatest downfall.

 

[kutta]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine. However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

I think we could include injuries to starting quarterbacks in almost any playoff-contending team as something. On the Saints, one thing I keep hearing from detractors is that Sean Payton's absence is going to be a big deal. Maybe it will be, but how quickly people forget that Pete Carmichael called plays when Payton got hurt and the offense didn't skip a beat.

An injury to the Cardinals starting QB would probably actually help them make the playoffs.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine. However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

I think we could include injuries to starting quarterbacks in almost any playoff-contending team as something. On the Saints, one thing I keep hearing from detractors is that Sean Payton's absence is going to be a big deal. Maybe it will be, but how quickly people forget that Pete Carmichael called plays when Payton got hurt and the offense didn't skip a beat.

I think most 'casual' fans will downgrade the saints b/c of payton and the 'bountygate'. This provides precisely the 'us vs the world' motivation that most coaches try and drum up all the time. Is brees still the qb? Nuff said.

 

[cheese]

Bengals...

Besides the obvious (health), the Bengals risks would be...

1. Dalton having a sophomore slump and failing to reproduce 2011.

2. Not finding anyone to play WR2/WR3 role.

3. Repeat of poor LB play in 2011 considering it's basically the same guys.

4. Leon Hall looking hobbled by injury, rest of CBs looking old, Taylor Mays looking lost.

5. Trying to be a running team, but being unable to deliver a reasonable YPC on the ground.

 

[Fensalk]

For the Browns,

1. The defense needs to stay healthy, as long as key players like Phil Taylor doesn't get hurt...oops.

2. The only way the Browns offense is going to get going is if Weeden stays healthy and plays well. I don't think McCoy or Wallace are capable of consistently moving the offense.

 

[SWC]

the packers need to get a pass rush ilke they had two years ago but not last year if they can do that then maybe they can go far but if not then they are in trouble again you just can not give up 30 points every game and obviusly they need rogers to stay healthy because number 12 is number 1 when it comes to running the awesome o

 

[flc735]

Detroit Lions

Lack of discipline/maturity/leadership. This offseason has magnified this concern for the Lions. The problem was also very evident on the field last year indicated by lost composure and penalties. Someone needs to step-up on both sides of the ball and get these guys on the right focus pattern otherwise they will experience a setback in the win column.

I heard on Colin Cowherd this morning that in the last decade 29 teams went from having a losing season to a 10 win season the next year. 26 out of 29 teams that did that followed up the next season with a losing season. Example going 4-12 to 10-6 to 5-11.

I believe the offense can continue to make strides and the defense will be better than last year. The mental side of the game will decide the fate of Detroit this year.

this is a cherry picked stat. the losing season is broad, containing 0-7 win teams. the 2nd season is the cherry picked part, which is exactly 10 wins. i'd like to see that same stat but involving teams that went from a 0-7 win season to a 9-16 win season or a 6 to 10 win season. i'd bet the outcome would be a lot less significanti could easily compair det to GB who went from a 6 win season, to an 11 win season, to a superbowl. when you get specific, like collins 10 win stat was, you can make the numbers say anything

 

[JaxBill]

The key issue that could derail most people's assumptions about the Jaguars is if Gabbert received proper coaching, improved and turned out below average to average numbers for an NFL quarterback.

On the flip side, though, the biggest area where things could go wrong is injuries on the offensive line. Jags made significant improvements on the offense, however they did not bolster their OL depth. Their only real addition was Ohio State C Brewster who slid in the draft and signed as an UDFA. They are counting on Britton to come back and play RT. Guy Whimper was pretty bad there last year. I shudder to think what would happen if Monroe went down for the year.

 

[bucsbaby]

Bucs - Although the team can't get much worse than it did under the last regime, I have mixed feelings about where we stack up this year.The offense will definitely be more dynamic with the additions of Nicks and VJax. Realistically, the OL can be the best in the NFL if all the starters stay healthy. The addition of Martin in the backfield adds a great amount of versatility to the gameplan.The major IF for this football team is the DL. The past few years we have loaded up on high priced talent in the draft and for the most part had the majority of the players miss considerable time. Coaching schemes under Raheem probably played a major part in the inept rush defense, along with youth, but injuries have been our greatest downfall.

Also:1) Can the secondary keep the Bucs in the game? This is linked to the DLine's ability to pressure the QB2) Can Freeman step up to run what appears on paper to be a high-octane offense?

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Bengals...Besides the obvious (health), the Bengals risks would be...5. Trying to be a running team, but being unable to deliver a reasonable YPC on the ground.

I think this is the biggest issue for Cincinnati. I think they're going to regret not addressing the RB position a little better than they did.

 

[Sabertooth]

Packers have not added any veteran talent to the defense. Woodson is yet another year older and Tramon Williams regressed last year when he has the opportuity to shine. Clay Matthews needs help out there and they added only rookies.

 

[TS Garp]

Chargers:

Some keys for them --

* Ryan Mathews staying on the field and playing smart football (improving in pass protection and doing a better job with ball security). This is HUGE.

* Philip Rivers showing that his high INT rate last year was an aberration and not the beginning of a trend.

* The O Line must continue to improve.

* Floyd or Meachem has to step up and be a legit WR1.

* Getting some sort of pass rush.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Detroit Lions

Lack of discipline/maturity/leadership. This offseason has magnified this concern for the Lions. The problem was also very evident on the field last year indicated by lost composure and penalties. Someone needs to step-up on both sides of the ball and get these guys on the right focus pattern otherwise they will experience a setback in the win column.

I heard on Colin Cowherd this morning that in the last decade 29 teams went from having a losing season to a 10 win season the next year. 26 out of 29 teams that did that followed up the next season with a losing season. Example going 4-12 to 10-6 to 5-11.

I believe the offense can continue to make strides and the defense will be better than last year. The mental side of the game will decide the fate of Detroit this year.

this is a cherry picked stat. the losing season is broad, containing 0-7 win teams. the 2nd season is the cherry picked part, which is exactly 10 wins. i'd like to see that same stat but involving teams that went from a 0-7 win season to a 9-16 win season or a 6 to 10 win season. i'd bet the outcome would be a lot less significanti could easily compair det to GB who went from a 6 win season, to an 11 win season, to a superbowl. when you get specific, like collins 10 win stat was, you can make the numbers say anything

Agreed. However it does not negate the issues with the team.

 

[Buckna]

Houston:

-Obviously Schaub needs to stay healthy.

-After Andre, the WR core is a total crapshoot. It's AJ, Walter and then no one else who has ever caught an NFL pass. Even the TE position is shaky as Dreessen is gone and Daniels play has regressed.

-The right side of the O'line has been revamped with 2 backups stepping into starting roles. Keeping the running game and Schuab upright is going to be tougher.

-Is the defense for real? Opponents have a year of tape, depth at Corner and d'line is thin, and Houston feasted on some really terrible passing offenses last year (Jax, Cleveland, & Tampa for example.) They still get the Jags (Gabbert can't be worse can he?), but are swapping out the NFC South & AFC North for the NFC North & AFC East. Facing Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, a Manning-led Denver, & New England will be a real test.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine. However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

I think we could include injuries to starting quarterbacks in almost any playoff-contending team as something. On the Saints, one thing I keep hearing from detractors is that Sean Payton's absence is going to be a big deal. Maybe it will be, but how quickly people forget that Pete Carmichael called plays when Payton got hurt and the offense didn't skip a beat.

I think payton being gone along with the def changes/suspensions will really hurt the saints defense this year. I dont think the offense misses a beat. Brees and the offense will have to score more to win games which means brees could actually be more valuable this season.

The Saints did nothing but help the defense in the offseason. They now have a whole new group of LBs and a better coordinator. Will Smith's suspension won't be that big of a deal. Vilma's leadership will be missed, but Lofton is an upgrade at this point. The person who will be missed most is Tracey Porter.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

So many "if's" for the Dolphins, but I still want to play:

- If Ocho's dissapearing act in New England was due to a complex play book and a lack of motivation, and he can return to be a viable WR1

- If David Garrard or Matt Moore can put together a Chad Pennington circa 2008 type of season (not likely, but neither was Pennington's 2008 season)

- If (one of) Reggie Bush builds upon his 2011 season, Daniel Thomas comes of age, or Lamar Miller comes out of the gates as a viable starting RB

- If Jonathan Martin can anchor the RT spot (a huge weakness in 2011)at a high level

- If Oliver Vernon (or someone else) can play competently opposite Cam Wake

- If Sean Smith and Vonte Davis can finally play the way they were expected to play as early draft picks in 2009

- If Charles Clay or Michael Egnew can supplant Anthony Fasano at TE, and provide a spark

- If Joe Philbin is not the next Dave Wannstedt, Cam Cameron, Nick Saban, Tony Sparano debacle

We might flirt with .500

 

[netnalp]

Giants

The Bad:

Obviously, if Eli goes down, the Giants will probably have a top 10 pick in next years draft.

Schedule- As tough as last years schedule was, this years is even tougher. The team is inconsistent and seems to play up and down to the level of competition. Won the SB and had a great playoff run but got swept by the 'Skins, lost to Seahawks and played terrible against the Rams, Cards and Dolphins.

Oline - It's probably getting reshuffled again. Concerns are that the young guys that will be starting might not be ready to do so. Diehl is aging fast and he could be starting at RT, his 3rd position change in as many years. How long can Snee play at a high level?

WR - Nicks should be back for the season but will he face nagging injuries after missing camp. Randle should beat out Hixon for the #3 spot but can he make up for the loss of Manningham in his first year?

RB - Bradshaws feet. David Wilson can run, but will his blocking get Eli killed if he ends up having to play a lot if Bradshaw misses time with injuries?

CB - Will age catch up to Webster? T. Thomas has been cleared for camp with no restrictions, but can he get back to what he once was?

The Good:

The Running Game - Can't get much worse than last year. Wilson gives upside that wasn't there last year. Martellus Bennet, even if he doesn't contribute anything to the passing game, he's one of the best run blocking TEs in the league, that should help a lot.

Rueben Randle - Thus far at OTAs and Minicamp, he's lived up to the "NFL ready" label.

Dline - JPP already one of the best DEs in the league. Tuck's been plagued by injury in recent years, but Osi is happier with his contract now and Kiwi can always move to DE if the injury bug hits. Linval Joseph is developing into a force at DT. Canty is solid, Bernard is great depth. Marvin Austin comes back from injury. He hasn't played a full season college or pro, in 2 years so he may not contribute much this year.

LB - Many will look at the Giants and say they don't have a MLB. Herzlich has been a stand out in OTAs and Minicamp. It hasn't been put out there by writers that he's back to pre-cancer form, but this summers camp is a couple months longer than the amount of time it took for Lance Armstrong to go from finishing chemotherapy to being back in competitive form. Herzlich's improvement seems to following that timeline, he was once projected as a 2nd round pick. J. Williams came along well last year. And Rivers impressed in OTAs and minicamp. Odd thing is Rivers says he's mostly been playing behind Boley.

DB's - It's a shame the Giants won't be able to keep all the young guys, they're going to have to let go some very talented young guys.

 

[FF Ninja]

Houston:-Obviously Schaub needs to stay healthy.-After Andre, the WR core is a total crapshoot. It's AJ, Walter and then no one else who has ever caught an NFL pass. Even the TE position is shaky as Dreessen is gone and Daniels play has regressed.-The right side of the O'line has been revamped with 2 backups stepping into starting roles. Keeping the running game and Schuab upright is going to be tougher.-Is the defense for real? Opponents have a year of tape, depth at Corner and d'line is thin, and Houston feasted on some really terrible passing offenses last year (Jax, Cleveland, & Tampa for example.) They still get the Jags (Gabbert can't be worse can he?), but are swapping out the NFC South & AFC North for the NFC North & AFC East. Facing Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, a Manning-led Denver, & New England will be a real test.

I actually have a hard time thinking of any one injury that could seriously derail our season. I'm not a "TJ Yates is the future" guy, but with our defense and ground game, I think a 2nd year TJ Yates would actually be ok.I want to say Andre Johnson is the closest we come to one key player which is scary since he had so many problems last year. Without him, we'll have a really hard time ever rallying from behind or scoring on a 2 minute drill. But I have to think that one of the guys we've got waiting in the ranks could step up and be decent alongside Daneils and Walter.Tate is no Foster, but he's no slouch, either. And I think Butler and Caldwell are fine, but we are thin at tackle, so that could be disastrous if we Brown or Butler.On defense, we've got some pretty solid depth going with Crick and Merciless. Harris should be ready to play a role at CB in case we have an injury there. I feel really, really good about our team this year. I think we could win 10 games even with one major injury. Now if we lose Schaub, AJ, and Duane Brown then all bets are off. Or if we lose Barwin, Joseph, and Watt.

 

[gibfunk]

Bucs - Although the team can't get much worse than it did under the last regime, I have mixed feelings about where we stack up this year.The offense will definitely be more dynamic with the additions of Nicks and VJax. Realistically, the OL can be the best in the NFL if all the starters stay healthy. The addition of Martin in the backfield adds a great amount of versatility to the gameplan.The major IF for this football team is the DL. The past few years we have loaded up on high priced talent in the draft and for the most part had the majority of the players miss considerable time. Coaching schemes under Raheem probably played a major part in the inept rush defense, along with youth, but injuries have been our greatest downfall.

Also:1) Can the secondary keep the Bucs in the game? This is linked to the DLine's ability to pressure the QB2) Can Freeman step up to run what appears on paper to be a high-octane offense?

Unfortunately our Bucs have more IF's than most teams.

 

[ffldrew]

Broncos

The Obvious is the health of Manning

Will they miss Dennis Allen - no one is really mentioning that around here

Once you get past Von at Linebacker it is a big dropoff - and Von is more of a rusher - they need tacklers

Champ was healthy last year - can he go 2 in a row at his age. And the rest of the D backfield was easy to pick apart - see that beatdown by the Patriots

McGahee is a older - has he reached his zenith

Will Manning and D. Thomas and E Decker click - they are both young

Schedule is a rough one

 

[GroveDiesel]

Buffalo Bills:

Ryan Fitzpatrick is obviously the big key. If first half 2011 Fitz shows up the full year, then the Bills should be headed for the playoffs. If second half Fitz shows up, it's probably game over.

On defense, the LBs and CBs are question marks. You have Barnett moving outside and a lot of pressure put on Shepard as the starting MLB. They're putting a lot of trust in Shep. And Kirk Morrison going from hardly playing to starting OLB is a big question mark too.

The CBs are big questions too. A lot is being put on Gilmore as a rookie. The starting spot opposite him will probably be second year man Aaron Williams. Again, a lot to put on a young guy that showed flashes but is still somewhat of an unknown.

IMO, a lot of people would probably say LT is a question mark but I'm not really worried about it. Their offensive system helps the OTs out quite a bit by getting the ball out of the QB's hand quickly. Hairston did an ok job last year when he filled in for Bell. Not outstanding, but acceptable. If Glenn can beat him out, then that's even better.

 

[cobalt_27]

I'll take a shot at this with the Saints. I think that a lot of folks are discounting Drew Brees who will be playing without his head coach and expecting their offense to suffer greatly. However I think that the Saints will be all right, and Brees will continue to roll in the passing game and their offense will be fine.

However, if Brees were to get injured then the Saints would likely fall out of the playoffs.

Likely can safely be removed and inserted for certainly.

 

[Defending Champs]

Falcons

Sam Baker is the where most fingers are pointing to in pre-season. Being a 1st round selection, he has never played up to his potential and has been replaced at times for various reasons. Sometimes injury, sometimes poor play, sometimes both.

The Falcons have to protect Ryan to keep him in the game. I don't see the Falcons winning the NFC South with back up QB Chris Redman playing any more than a game or two due to a Ryan injury. The Falcons used a big Will Svitek but obviously weren't 100% sold because all signs point to Baker getting the starting nod for 2012.

Quoted from Justin Blanchard from The Bleacher Report, "And considering Baker was ranked the seventh-worst pass-blocking tackle from 2009 through 2011 in Pro Football Focus' recent report, don't be surprised if Baker returns to the bench sooner rather than later."

 

[Johnny Blood]

Brad Childress. He's simply terrible, and he has been added to a terrible offense. Except when he had Brett Favre playing out of his mind, his MN offenses were plodding and predictable. Now everyone thinks Trent Richardson is going to be the uber-workhorse. Am I the only one who remembers how Childress handled Adrian Peterson's rookie season? It was delightful watching Vikings fans pull their hair out when Childress would sit a dominant AP in the second half. Sure Peterson had a great rookie season---with 238 carries.

Now, maybe Childress doesn't have the power to determine how they use Richardson, but in any case, he is terrible. Without Reid running the offensive show, and without Peterson and/or Favre playing out of this world, his offenses are putrid. Childress is merely fluent in the WCO, not someone who is innovative or creative with it. The Browns should have taken a chance on someone with the potential to be better.

Opposing NFC north teams were happy to have Childress around, and I don't think it'll be different in the AFC north.

 

[MAC_32]

Brad Childress. He's simply terrible, and he has been added to a terrible offense. If he doesn't have Brett Favre playing out of his mind, his offense sucks. Now everyone thinks Trent Richardson is going to be the uber-workhorse. Am I the only one who remembers how Childress handled Adrian Peterson's rookie season? It was delightful watching Vikings fans pull their hair out when Childress would sit a dominant AP in the second half. Sure Peterson had a great rookie season---with 238 carries.Now, maybe Childress doesn't have the power to determine how they use Richardson, but in any case, he is terrible. Without Reid running the offensive show, and without Peterson and/or Favre playing out of this world, his offenses are putrid.

Not that it's any more of an improvement, but he's not calling the plays Sunday, Shurmur is. Childress is the leader during the week though.