Offensive Rookie of the year...As of right now... (1 Viewer)

[Carter_Can_Fly]

There is still more to this story but as of right now here is how I have it...

1) Andrew Luck... There are some people that perform to expectations and then there are some expectations that are so high it seems impossible to reach them. Andrew Luck has not only met the most lofty of expectations he has exceeded them in ridiculous fashion.

Many are going to point to his low completion percentage and his high number of ints as a negative but it is only a minor hit on what has been an incredible rookie season. I have never seen a team count on a rookie so much. Luck has been asked to throw and throw a ton. Sure, this may help the stats, but it has also helped turn around a team that won 2 games last year. It is not as if he is compiling these stats in fourth quarter garbage time against prevent defenses ala Carson Palmer this year. He has the Colts team at 8 wins to 4 losses all the while throwing for 300 yards a game and 17 td's. He is on pace to throw for 4,800 yards He already has 503 attempts on the year as the team counts on him so much to put up points with a running game that is sub par at best. He also is far from a dink and dunk passer which is one of the reasons he has a low completion percentage as well as a large number of ints.

Too go along with his high number of passing yards, he has added 216 yards rushing with 5 tds. His athleticism is underrated. He is 6'4" 240 lbs and moves so well. He is avoided plenty of sacks this year as well as completed some passes while guys have been draped all over him.

It definitely helps having Wayne as his go to guy, but Luck has helped the rest of this supporting cast so much. His O line is below average and to go along with Wayne he has Avery (done little his career), Hilton (rookie), Fleener (rookie), Allen (rookie). Ballard (rookie), Brown (little to his career).

Projected year end stats... 372 of 656 for 4800 yards, 22 tds' to 21 ints, 288 yards rushing, 6 rushing TDs. Over 5,000 yards of offense with 28 td's. That is crazy.

2) RGIII

3) Russell Wilson

4) Doug Martin

I don't have the time to do a write up for each guy, but will say that Wilson has made a very nice push as of late to pass RGIII. If Wilson continues to put up more passing yards to end the season and his team keeps winning then he may pass RGIII by season end.

I don't buy the Wilson is ahead of the other two guys but won't win it because he plays in Seattle argument. Wilson has been one of the surprise stories of the year and although he would be a clear front runner in most years, he is behind 2 guys right now that have been better than him. I am assuming the Wilson supporters will point to the QB rating and TD's, but Wilson has yet to have a 300 yard passing game on the year and in 7 of 12 games he has failed to throw for more than 200 yards in a game.

Martin is having an amazing rookie year, but great QB play trumps great RB play.

 

[Ghost Rider]

It's a two-horse race right now: Luck and RG3.

Right now, I'd give it to RG3 easily. He has far less turnovers than Luck, a significantly better YPA and is more productive running the ball. But I think if Indy makes the playoff and Washington doesn't, voters will give it to Luck, which is unfair, as it is not an MVP-type award, but we'll see. Right now, RG3 should be the clear cut winner.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

Luck will win Rookie of the Year...

 

[SSOG]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Luck has taken a two win team and made it an 8 win team and a likely playoff participant.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

On pure numbers alone RGIII would win.However, when you factor in team achievement which ends up happening you see a team in indy that was 2-14 last year sitting now at 8 and 4. And then you have a Redskins team that was 5-11 last year with Beck/Grossman combo sitting at 5-6 right now. Although it is supposed to be an individual award. Team records factor into play.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck will win because he is taking the worst team in the NFL the previous year to the playoffs.That's unheard of...

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Wilson should win it, but will not because he plays on the West Coast and RG3 and Luck just have more hype surrounding them. If Wilson doesn't win, then it should be RG3. Luck is #3 on the list in my opinion.

Some quick stats about Wilson.

-Has the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL since week 5, only behind Tom Brady

-Has not thrown an interception since the end of October

-Has a 2.38 TD to INT ratio. Luck has a 1.06 ratio.

-Is on pace to break Peyton Manning's rookie passing TD record

-First rookie to have 3 consecutive games with QB rating over 125

-Has best percentage completion by a significant margin over RG3 and Luck

Luck is playing very inefficient football and is accumulating passing yards because he is passing the ball so much. I understand that they are putting the ball in his hands, which is a testament to his skill but Luck is bottom of the league in passer rating, completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. Luck certainly has been impressive but Wilson is playing very efficiently and winning with game ending drives with the team on his shoulder.

 

[KellysHeroes]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck has Reggie Wayne who is in his mid 30s and then a Street FA followed by a depth chart of rookie as WRs/TEs

 

[otb_lifer]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck has Reggie Wayne who is in his mid 30s and then a Street FA followed by a depth chart of rookie as WRs/TEs

... not to mention NO running game to speak of ... mostly been two ham and eggers (Brown/Ballard) who are borderline backups, on most rosters. Compare to Lynch and AlfMo ... no contest.

 

[BobbyLayne]

From the advanced passing perspective, I think it's clearly:

[*]RGIII

[*]Wilson

[*]Luck

My perception, though, is the 50 media members doing the voting will screw it up. In their simplified world view, I suspect they see:

[*]Luck 8-4 3,500 passing yards

[*]Wilson 7-5 19 TDs

[*]RGIII 5-6* (plays tonight)

I think Luck will win a close vote over RGIII. But in reality, if you look at the statistics and have watched the games, it's RGIII (16 TDs, 4 interceptions, 600 yards rushing + 6 rush TDs) in a landslide over the guy leading the NFL in interceptions.

Wilson is much better than I thought he would be, but he's not really in the conversation.

 

[jsharlan]

I think the fact Luck leads his team to the playoffs without his head coach even being in the building will be factored in as well. I think all three of them are deserving in their own right.

 

[lod01]

Luck has taken a two win team and made it an 8 win team and a likely playoff participant.

Which will give him the nod over RG3.

 

[Concept Coop]

RG3 leads his team to the playoffs with Indy's cake schedule too.

 

[SSOG]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck will win because he is taking the worst team in the NFL the previous year to the playoffs.That's unheard of...

Unheard of? Only if you've never heard of Vince Young- he took over a team that was 4-12 the year before and 0-3 without him, and he went 8-5. Or Ben Roethlisberger- he took the reins of a 6-10 team and then went 13-0. I'll agree that luck is largely responsible for Indy's record- but I mean the lowercase L kind. Indy has played three teams that currently have a winning record- a 20 point pasting by the Bears, a 35 point pasting by the Pats, and a 3 point win against the Packers in the "Win one for Chuck" game. They lost by 5 to the woeful Jags. They lost by 26 to the woeful Jets... on the road! They beat the 6-6 Vikes by 3 at home, posted one score home wins against the Browns, Dolphins, and Bills, got taken to overtime against the Titans, and needed a miracle rally to escape Detroit with a two point win. They have one win all season long by more than one score- a 17 point win against the post-MJD Jags. They've been out scored by 41 points on the season. I say without any hint of hyperbole that they are possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time, and their record has nothing to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's play, and everything to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's schedule. If Washington played Indy tomorrow on a neutral field, Washington would (rightfully) be favored.

 

[Warrior]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck has Reggie Wayne who is in his mid 30s and then a Street FA followed by a depth chart of rookie as WRs/TEs

... not to mention NO running game to speak of ... mostly been two ham and eggers (Brown/Ballard) who are borderline backups, on most rosters. Compare to Lynch and AlfMo ... no contest.

"No contest"?

I bet you $100 you had never even heard the name 'Alfred Morris' before RG3 started spreading defenses and opening up running lanes. You act like some almost undrafted RB is Barry Sanders. He's the definition of a ham and egger...Indy's RB's were much more highly regarded.

 

[Warrior]

RGIII

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Luck

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Doug Martin

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Russell Wilson

 

[deadlyrange0321]

Having seen all 3 QBs play this year, if RG3 doesn't win then something is wrong. He's been the best rookie by far in my eyes.

If Indy makes the playoffs, Luck played really well and deserves some accolades.

If Washington makes the playoffs, RG3 is an MVP candidate.

 

[otb_lifer]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck has Reggie Wayne who is in his mid 30s and then a Street FA followed by a depth chart of rookie as WRs/TEs

... not to mention NO running game to speak of ... mostly been two ham and eggers (Brown/Ballard) who are borderline backups, on most rosters. Compare to Lynch and AlfMo ... no contest.

"No contest"?

I bet you $100 you had never even heard the name 'Alfred Morris' before RG3 started spreading defenses and opening up running lanes. You act like some almost undrafted RB is Barry Sanders. He's the definition of a ham and egger...Indy's RB's were much more highly regarded.

LOLZ. Yeah, I compared him to Sanders!!1!1! (though contrasted to Brown/Ballard, he might be)You'd lose that bet, 'cause i drafted him.

Numbers don't lie, AlfMo has cleared the deck with the Indy rb's ...

Shanny has a knack for turning " ham and eggers" into pro bowl caliber players. Methinks Alf would've done well in that system, even without RGIII .

 

[Warhogs]

Luck has taken a two win team and made it an 8 win team and a likely playoff participant.

These are my thoughts too. I think Luck is comfortably the favorite right now. Several nice rookies this year but Luck has taken the worst team into a playoff spot at this point. That is crazy good.

 

[Dentist]

Luck will win.. there's just no question about it.

RG3 has had the best statistical season.

I expect RG3 to drop off moving forward though due to lack of decent redskins weapons... you give defensive coordinators one year with that guy and the drop off will happen like it has with Newton.

 

[Concept Coop]

I expect RG3 to drop off moving forward though due to lack of decent redskins weapons... you give defensive coordinators one year with that guy and the drop off will happen like it has with Newton.

Everyone says this, but it's garbage. Tell me what defenses are doing differently? Nobody seems to be able to say. The Panthers went from THE best rushing offense, to one of the worst, minus Newton's efforts. That is the difference; not some secret scheme that takes a year for defenses to come up with that shuts down running QBs. By the way, Newton is #6 right now, after finishing #5 last season. Look at his stats; the difference between this year and last, is rushing TDs.

 

[doowain]

Luck has taken a two win team and made it an 8 win team and a likely playoff participant.

Agreed. But the "Luck" you refer to isn't Andrew.ETA: -41 point differential....and they still have to play HOU twice. I'd say it's likely they DON'T make it.Give it to RG3.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Luck has definitely attempted more passes than RG3 and has been less efficient and so on and so forth.

There are a number of factors to winning in the NFL. One way to win games is to account for gaining yards and scoring TD's. RG3 has the numbers at this stage, but he does not have the wins.

Between rushing and passing Luck is directly relating to 318 yards a game and 1.8 td's a game.

RG3 is accounting for 286 yards a game and 2 tds a game at this moment.

 

[TheFly06]

I know he won't win it based on the position he plays, but how has OT Matt Kahlil been for the Vikings?

 

[Concept Coop]

Luck has definitely attempted more passes than RG3 and has been less efficient and so on and so forth.There are a number of factors to winning in the NFL. One way to win games is to account for gaining yards and scoring TD's. RG3 has the numbers at this stage, but he does not have the wins.Between rushing and passing Luck is directly relating to 318 yards a game and 1.8 td's a game.RG3 is accounting for 286 yards a game and 2 tds a game at this moment.

Luck is going to win, based on this logic. It's a cute story; worst to playoffs. But they have 1 good win. The schedule is awful, and the Skins would be in the playoffs too, in my opinion, if they played it. You left turnovers out of your per game numbers, by the way.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Luck is going to win because he is white.

 

[dgreen]

I expect RG3 to drop off moving forward though due to lack of decent redskins weapons...

His weapons are better now than they were earlier in the season. Week 1 he had all his weapons. After that, he's either not had Garcon at all or had a hobbled Garcon. He lost Fred Davis just as Garcon was about to come back.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

RG3 leads his team to the playoffs with Indy's cake schedule too.

Really? I think Vegas knows more than you and over/under on total wins for Indy was 5. I doubt replacing RG3 with Luck would make it any higher...

 

[Warpig]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck has Reggie Wayne who is in his mid 30s and then a Street FA followed by a depth chart of rookie as WRs/TEs

... not to mention NO running game to speak of ... mostly been two ham and eggers (Brown/Ballard) who are borderline backups, on most rosters. Compare to Lynch and AlfMo ... no contest.

"No contest"?

I bet you $100 you had never even heard the name 'Alfred Morris' before RG3 started spreading defenses and opening up running lanes. You act like some almost undrafted RB is Barry Sanders. He's the definition of a ham and egger...Indy's RB's were much more highly regarded.

While I agree that all three rookie QBs have a case and the true winner is the NFL, I don't think you can say ALFMO's success is due totally to RGIII's success. There was a guy who had a pretty good track record of turning RBs no one had heard of into Pro-bowl players. You may or may not have heard of him...Mike Shanahan. His offensive philosophy turns turds into gold when it comes to running backs.My vote would be for Andrew Luck. I don't get to see much of RGIII's games since I live in Indy. But everyone thought that the Colts would win 5 games at best. Luck has that team in line to secure a playoff berth. On top of that, they have one of, if not THE youngest team in the NFL. Two rookie TEs, a stable of rookie WRs, and several rookie RBs with crap for an O-line. The guy is clutch! Luck is taking over for a legend and the Colts haven't missed a step. RGIII took over for...Sexy Rexy and that other guy. RGIII has a far superior offensive line and running game. Luck passes so much because HE IS THE OFFENSE. So sure, he's gonna throw some picks and have an average completion percentage, but you gotta look at the numbers overall.

I am in no way bashing RGIII...I love both these guys and it's gonna be fun watching these guys for the next 10 years. But my vote (if I had one) would go to Luck in a tight race.

Poor Russell Wilson is on the outside looking in but certainly deserves his own consideration. Due to their running game, he's not asked to throw the ball a lot though.

 

[steveski]

RG3 will win if the Redskins make the playoffs (they better not). If they don't, it will it be Luck. If Martin can pull off 2 more of those huge games then I could see him in contention. I don't see Wilson just for the fact that there are 2 more "famous" successful rookie QB's on the list that will get more votes.

 

[Concept Coop]

Really? I think Vegas knows more than you and over/under on total wins for Indy was 5. I doubt replacing RG3 with Luck would make it any higher...

Vegas made that call months ago; not sure how that is relevant.

 

[packseasontix]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

I think this sets him apart... I like Luck alot and traded 3 1st Rounders for him in Dynasty 2QB league but in the end this is not about long-term success this is who is showing the most this year. Even if RG3 doesn't make the playoffs (which he still could) I think he deserves it.

 

[Concept Coop]

I wonder when the last time a team won 1 game over a team with a winning record, and had 8 wins this early in a season. As SSOG pointed out, potentially the worst 8-4 team ever.

 

[Dizzy]

Luck has five (5) game-WINNING drives in 4th QTR and/or overtime... that basically equals Donovan McNabb's entire career.

I would say Luck by a nose at this point (prior to tonight's game), but still with some football to be played.

 

[dgreen]

I understand that the Colts have technically gone from 2-14 to 8-4. But, it's not just that they added Luck. It's more about them going from Painter to Luck. As bad as everyone thinks Grossman is, he's significantly better than Painter. The gap between Grossman and RG3 isn't nearly the same gap that's between Painter and Luck. And that's not a comment about Luck being so much better than RG3. Just bringing in an average QB would have given the Colts a jump in a couple games in the win column.

 

[dgreen]

Serious question, because I don't know: What other changes have the Colts (the entire team) made compared to last year? How much credit really goes to Luck?

In addition to Griffin, the Redskins have upgraded at WR since last year and have remained healthy on the OL (for the first time in forever). They've also found a RB who fits their scheme better than previous years. Of course, I'd argue that Griffin is really what makes the running game go, but Morris has been a nice addition. They've regressed defensively and have suffered key injuries on that side of the ball. Last year, they had a solid defense. This year's defense gets gashed by everyone not named Foles, but they do a nice job of getting turnovers.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

On top of that, they have one of, if not THE youngest team in the NFL.

Browns are the youngest.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I wonder when the last time a team won 1 game over a team with a winning record, and had 8 wins this early in a season. As SSOG pointed out, potentially the worst 8-4 team ever.

1999 Jaguars were 11-1 at this point with no wins over teams that ended with winning records. They did have 4 wins over teams that finished .500.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck will win because he is taking the worst team in the NFL the previous year to the playoffs.That's unheard of...

Unheard of? Only if you've never heard of Vince Young- he took over a team that was 4-12 the year before and 0-3 without him, and he went 8-5. Or Ben Roethlisberger- he took the reins of a 6-10 team and then went 13-0. I'll agree that luck is largely responsible for Indy's record- but I mean the lowercase L kind. Indy has played three teams that currently have a winning record- a 20 point pasting by the Bears, a 35 point pasting by the Pats, and a 3 point win against the Packers in the "Win one for Chuck" game. They lost by 5 to the woeful Jags. They lost by 26 to the woeful Jets... on the road! They beat the 6-6 Vikes by 3 at home, posted one score home wins against the Browns, Dolphins, and Bills, got taken to overtime against the Titans, and needed a miracle rally to escape Detroit with a two point win. They have one win all season long by more than one score- a 17 point win against the post-MJD Jags. They've been out scored by 41 points on the season. I say without any hint of hyperbole that they are possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time, and their record has nothing to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's play, and everything to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's schedule. If Washington played Indy tomorrow on a neutral field, Washington would (rightfully) be favored.

Neither VY or Big Ben were drafted #1. So they didn't go to the worst team as the OP made pretty clear.Luck will win if he takes the Colts to the playoffs. #'s show RGIII has a good argument to win, but he won't win it outright if Indy goes to the playoffs.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Serious question, because I don't know: What other changes have the Colts (the entire team) made compared to last year? How much credit really goes to Luck?In addition to Griffin, the Redskins have upgraded at WR since last year and have remained healthy on the OL (for the first time in forever). They've also found a RB who fits their scheme better than previous years. Of course, I'd argue that Griffin is really what makes the running game go, but Morris has been a nice addition. They've regressed defensively and have suffered key injuries on that side of the ball. Last year, they had a solid defense. This year's defense gets gashed by everyone not named Foles, but they do a nice job of getting turnovers.

From a skill position standpoint, they added Avery who has been good (and healthy) and drafted TY Hilton, Allen and Fleener who are all playing well. They also added Ballard who is better than Brown but nothing special.

 

[jp81976]

I wonder when the last time a team won 1 game over a team with a winning record, and had 8 wins this early in a season. As SSOG pointed out, potentially the worst 8-4 team ever.

If I'm not mistaken, the Patriots didn't have a win over a team with a winning record until they beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship last year.

 

[SSOG]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck will win because he is taking the worst team in the NFL the previous year to the playoffs.That's unheard of...

Unheard of? Only if you've never heard of Vince Young- he took over a team that was 4-12 the year before and 0-3 without him, and he went 8-5. Or Ben Roethlisberger- he took the reins of a 6-10 team and then went 13-0. I'll agree that luck is largely responsible for Indy's record- but I mean the lowercase L kind. Indy has played three teams that currently have a winning record- a 20 point pasting by the Bears, a 35 point pasting by the Pats, and a 3 point win against the Packers in the "Win one for Chuck" game. They lost by 5 to the woeful Jags. They lost by 26 to the woeful Jets... on the road! They beat the 6-6 Vikes by 3 at home, posted one score home wins against the Browns, Dolphins, and Bills, got taken to overtime against the Titans, and needed a miracle rally to escape Detroit with a two point win. They have one win all season long by more than one score- a 17 point win against the post-MJD Jags. They've been out scored by 41 points on the season. I say without any hint of hyperbole that they are possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time, and their record has nothing to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's play, and everything to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's schedule. If Washington played Indy tomorrow on a neutral field, Washington would (rightfully) be favored.

Neither VY or Big Ben were drafted #1. So they didn't go to the worst team as the OP made pretty clear.Luck will win if he takes the Colts to the playoffs. #'s show RGIII has a good argument to win, but he won't win it outright if Indy goes to the playoffs.

Cool. That's not the slightest bit an argument over semantics or anything. Luck went to the worst team, while Young went to the third worst team, and this is totally a very meaningful distinction. Meanwhile, the fact that Young played a tougher schedule or the fact that his team was 0-3 in games Young didn't start are meaningless distinctions. As for Roethlisberger... yes, he went to a better team, but the jump from 6-10 to 13-0 against a solid schedule (including becoming the first QB to beat undefeated teams in back to back weeks in week 8 or later) is far more impressive than the jump from 2-14 to 8-4 against a schedule of nobodies.

According to Football Outsiders' metrics, Indy is the 28th best team in the league this year. That's bottom 5. Their offense is ranked 16th. Washington is the 14th best team, with the 9th ranked offense. As I said, we're looking at possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time. Football Outsiders estimates that their profile is about what you'd expect from a team with 3.6 wins and 8.4 losses.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck will win because he is taking the worst team in the NFL the previous year to the playoffs.That's unheard of...

Unheard of? Only if you've never heard of Vince Young- he took over a team that was 4-12 the year before and 0-3 without him, and he went 8-5. Or Ben Roethlisberger- he took the reins of a 6-10 team and then went 13-0. I'll agree that luck is largely responsible for Indy's record- but I mean the lowercase L kind. Indy has played three teams that currently have a winning record- a 20 point pasting by the Bears, a 35 point pasting by the Pats, and a 3 point win against the Packers in the "Win one for Chuck" game. They lost by 5 to the woeful Jags. They lost by 26 to the woeful Jets... on the road! They beat the 6-6 Vikes by 3 at home, posted one score home wins against the Browns, Dolphins, and Bills, got taken to overtime against the Titans, and needed a miracle rally to escape Detroit with a two point win. They have one win all season long by more than one score- a 17 point win against the post-MJD Jags. They've been out scored by 41 points on the season. I say without any hint of hyperbole that they are possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time, and their record has nothing to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's play, and everything to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's schedule. If Washington played Indy tomorrow on a neutral field, Washington would (rightfully) be favored.

Neither VY or Big Ben were drafted #1. So they didn't go to the worst team as the OP made pretty clear.Luck will win if he takes the Colts to the playoffs. #'s show RGIII has a good argument to win, but he won't win it outright if Indy goes to the playoffs.

Cool. That's not the slightest bit an argument over semantics or anything. Luck went to the worst team, while Young went to the third worst team, and this is totally a very meaningful distinction. Meanwhile, the fact that Young played a tougher schedule or the fact that his team was 0-3 in games Young didn't start are meaningless distinctions. As for Roethlisberger... yes, he went to a better team, but the jump from 6-10 to 13-0 against a solid schedule (including becoming the first QB to beat undefeated teams in back to back weeks in week 8 or later) is far more impressive than the jump from 2-14 to 8-4 against a schedule of nobodies.

According to Football Outsiders' metrics, Indy is the 28th best team in the league this year. That's bottom 5. Their offense is ranked 16th. Washington is the 14th best team, with the 9th ranked offense. As I said, we're looking at possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time. Football Outsiders estimates that their profile is about what you'd expect from a team with 3.6 wins and 8.4 losses.

Since we are using Football outsiders metrics...This is how they have the top 5 QBR this year....

1) Brady

2) Manning

3) M. Ryan

4) Andrew Luck

5) RGIII

 

[Concept Coop]

Since we are using Football outsiders metrics...This is how they have the top 5 QBR this year....1) Brady2) Manning3) M. Ryan4) Andrew Luck5) RGIII

Rushing stats.

 

[Neofight]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck will win because he is taking the worst team in the NFL the previous year to the playoffs.That's unheard of...

Unheard of? Only if you've never heard of Vince Young- he took over a team that was 4-12 the year before and 0-3 without him, and he went 8-5. Or Ben Roethlisberger- he took the reins of a 6-10 team and then went 13-0. I'll agree that luck is largely responsible for Indy's record- but I mean the lowercase L kind. Indy has played three teams that currently have a winning record- a 20 point pasting by the Bears, a 35 point pasting by the Pats, and a 3 point win against the Packers in the "Win one for Chuck" game. They lost by 5 to the woeful Jags. They lost by 26 to the woeful Jets... on the road! They beat the 6-6 Vikes by 3 at home, posted one score home wins against the Browns, Dolphins, and Bills, got taken to overtime against the Titans, and needed a miracle rally to escape Detroit with a two point win. They have one win all season long by more than one score- a 17 point win against the post-MJD Jags. They've been out scored by 41 points on the season. I say without any hint of hyperbole that they are possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time, and their record has nothing to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's play, and everything to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's schedule. If Washington played Indy tomorrow on a neutral field, Washington would (rightfully) be favored.

Neither VY or Big Ben were drafted #1. So they didn't go to the worst team as the OP made pretty clear.Luck will win if he takes the Colts to the playoffs. #'s show RGIII has a good argument to win, but he won't win it outright if Indy goes to the playoffs.

Cool. That's not the slightest bit an argument over semantics or anything. Luck went to the worst team, while Young went to the third worst team, and this is totally a very meaningful distinction. Meanwhile, the fact that Young played a tougher schedule or the fact that his team was 0-3 in games Young didn't start are meaningless distinctions. As for Roethlisberger... yes, he went to a better team, but the jump from 6-10 to 13-0 against a solid schedule (including becoming the first QB to beat undefeated teams in back to back weeks in week 8 or later) is far more impressive than the jump from 2-14 to 8-4 against a schedule of nobodies.

According to Football Outsiders' metrics, Indy is the 28th best team in the league this year. That's bottom 5. Their offense is ranked 16th. Washington is the 14th best team, with the 9th ranked offense. As I said, we're looking at possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time. Football Outsiders estimates that their profile is about what you'd expect from a team with 3.6 wins and 8.4 losses.

Since we are using Football outsiders metrics...This is how they have the top 5 QBR this year....

1) Brady

2) Manning

3) M. Ryan

4) Andrew Luck

5) RGIII

QBR is not a FO metric. DYAR and DVOA are. Luck trails in those two metrics, and it ain't close.

 

[TheCommish]

If the Colts make the playoffs, then Luck will win it. No doubt.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Wilson should win it, but will not because he plays on the West Coast and RG3 and Luck just have more hype surrounding them. If Wilson doesn't win, then it should be RG3. Luck is #3 on the list in my opinion.Some quick stats about Wilson.-Has the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL since week 5, only behind Tom Brady-Has not thrown an interception since the end of October-Has a 2.38 TD to INT ratio. Luck has a 1.06 ratio.-Is on pace to break Peyton Manning's rookie passing TD record-First rookie to have 3 consecutive games with QB rating over 125-Has best percentage completion by a significant margin over RG3 and LuckLuck is playing very inefficient football and is accumulating passing yards because he is passing the ball so much. I understand that they are putting the ball in his hands, which is a testament to his skill but Luck is bottom of the league in passer rating, completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. Luck certainly has been impressive but Wilson is playing very efficiently and winning with game ending drives with the team on his shoulder.

VERY No way he actually wins it because the media has hyped Luck/RGIII from day one and the Seahawks just don't get the national pub. Wilson should win it...but will not. When its all said and done Wilson will have more rings and a gold jacket/bust in Canton..... that will far outweigh the ROY award.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

Really? I think Vegas knows more than you and over/under on total wins for Indy was 5. I doubt replacing RG3 with Luck would make it any higher...

Vegas made that call months ago; not sure how that is relevant.

Of course it matters, you are blaming Luck's success due to his weak schedule. You don't think Vegas takes that into consideration? Give me a break pal...

 

[DoubleG]

Wilson should win it, but will not because he plays on the West Coast and RG3 and Luck just have more hype surrounding them. If Wilson doesn't win, then it should be RG3. Luck is #3 on the list in my opinion.Some quick stats about Wilson.-Has the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL since week 5, only behind Tom Brady-Has not thrown an interception since the end of October-Has a 2.38 TD to INT ratio. Luck has a 1.06 ratio.-Is on pace to break Peyton Manning's rookie passing TD record-First rookie to have 3 consecutive games with QB rating over 125-Has best percentage completion by a significant margin over RG3 and LuckLuck is playing very inefficient football and is accumulating passing yards because he is passing the ball so much. I understand that they are putting the ball in his hands, which is a testament to his skill but Luck is bottom of the league in passer rating, completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. Luck certainly has been impressive but Wilson is playing very efficiently and winning with game ending drives with the team on his shoulder.

VERY No way he actually wins it because the media has hyped Luck/RGIII from day one and the Seahawks just don't get the national pub. Wilson should win it...but will not. When its all said and done Wilson will have more rings and a gold jacket/bust in Canton..... that will far outweigh the ROY award.

On behalf of the Sharkpool, I'd like to say "Welcome Mrs. Wilson - your son is a very talented athlete and did a fine job against the Bears this past weekend. Have a wonderful holiday season."