Offensive Rookie of the year...As of right now... (1 Viewer)

[Hang 10]

So wins are only stat that matters, eh? Anyone want speculate how many wins Luck has today if he played for the redskins? Or if RG3 played for the colts or Seahawks? This isn't a team award we're talking about so Im not sure why so many are only focused on standings. Actually, I know why because it's the only way someone could make an argument why Griffin doesn't win this thing in a landslide.

 

[Quibbler]

Luck's ahead of RGIII now because while RGIII has had the better season, Luck's had the better story, and the voters love a good story.

However, Indy could easily fall flat on its face with bad losses to Houston, while the Skins could theoretically still sneak into the playoffs. Add in that the Skins will be in more high profile games (MNF, Eagles, Cowboys) and RGIII could be the media darling by the end of the season.

 

[dgreen]

-Has the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL since week 5, only behind Tom Brady

RG3 is tied with Peyton Manning for 2nd highest rating since week 1, only behind Tom Brady.

-Has not thrown an interception since the end of October

Four games without an INT is impressive. Griffin has two separate three-game stretches and is 2nd in the league in INT% (again, going all the way back to week 1).

-Has a 2.38 TD to INT ratio. Luck has a 1.06 ratio.

Griffin's is 4:1.

-Is on pace to break Peyton Manning's rookie passing TD record

Yes, Wilson does have the TD pass advantage in this race.

-First rookie to have 3 consecutive games with QB rating over 125

That's a nice streak, but anything magical about 125? And are we going to ignore his two games with ratings under 50? If we're going to use this metric, then tonight will be interesting since Griffin has the chance to become the second rookie QB to do this.

-Has best percentage completion by a significant margin over RG3 and Luck

No he doesn't.Honestly, nothing against Wilson. He probably wins OROY most seasons. And, I think he can still make a run and win it this year. But, if we had to vote today, he shouldn't win.

 

[Neofight]

Luck's ahead of RGIII now because while RGIII has had the better season, Luck's had the better story, and the voters love a good story. However, Indy could easily fall flat on its face with bad losses to Houston, while the Skins could theoretically still sneak into the playoffs. Add in that the Skins will be in more high profile games (MNF, Eagles, Cowboys) and RGIII could be the media darling by the end of the season.

If it's about the story (and I don't think it is) then Wilson wins this thing walking away. His story is far more interesting and far less anticipated than either of the other two. With the professional awards—and the NFL in general—it is usually more about the status quo and validating previous analysis, expectations and projections. The press hates being wrong and is (a generalization, but an accurate one) akin to a late majority, if not laggards.

 

[Concept Coop]

Really? I think Vegas knows more than you and over/under on total wins for Indy was 5. I doubt replacing RG3 with Luck would make it any higher...

Vegas made that call months ago; not sure how that is relevant.

Of course it matters, you are blaming Luck's success due to his weak schedule. You don't think Vegas takes that into consideration? Give me a break pal...

Vegas predicted that the Colts would win around 5 games in August/September? What is your point? Honest question; maybe I am missing it. I am blaming the Colts record on schedule, not Luck's success. He's one of the best rookie QBs ever; he just happens to be in a class with another, who I think has had the better season.Pal.

 

[EBF]

Gotta be RG3 or Luck.

Griffin's been better statistically, but on the other hand he hasn't been asked to do nearly as much. Going into tonight's game he only has 304 pass attempts compared to 503 for Luck. Griffin benefits from a dominant run game whereas the entire Colts offense flows through Luck. This makes it hard to compare their stats. They aren't really playing the same role.

I don't know who I'd vote for. Both are worthy. I've never seen a rookie QB carry an entire offense like Luck. On the other hand, I've never seen a rookie QB be as effective with his opportunities as RG3. They have both been great. Just in different ways.

 

[Neofight]

Really? I think Vegas knows more than you and over/under on total wins for Indy was 5. I doubt replacing RG3 with Luck would make it any higher...

Vegas made that call months ago; not sure how that is relevant.

Of course it matters, you are blaming Luck's success due to his weak schedule. You don't think Vegas takes that into consideration? Give me a break pal...

Vegas predicted that the Colts would win around 5 games in August/September? What is your point? Honest question; maybe I am missing it. I am blaming the Colts record on schedule, not Luck's success. He's one of the best rookie QBs ever; he just happens to be in a class with another, who I think has had the better season.Pal.

I think LMB is floating a new type of fallacy we could call Appeal to the Vig.

 

[mad sweeney]

Wilson should win it, but will not because he plays on the West Coast and RG3 and Luck just have more hype surrounding them. If Wilson doesn't win, then it should be RG3. Luck is #3 on the list in my opinion.Some quick stats about Wilson.-Has the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL since week 5, only behind Tom Brady-Has not thrown an interception since the end of October-Has a 2.38 TD to INT ratio. Luck has a 1.06 ratio.-Is on pace to break Peyton Manning's rookie passing TD record-First rookie to have 3 consecutive games with QB rating over 125-Has best percentage completion by a significant margin over RG3 and LuckLuck is playing very inefficient football and is accumulating passing yards because he is passing the ball so much. I understand that they are putting the ball in his hands, which is a testament to his skill but Luck is bottom of the league in passer rating, completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. Luck certainly has been impressive but Wilson is playing very efficiently and winning with game ending drives with the team on his shoulder.

VERY No way he actually wins it because the media has hyped Luck/RGIII from day one and the Seahawks just don't get the national pub. Wilson should win it...but will not. When its all said and done Wilson will have more rings and a gold jacket/bust in Canton..... that will far outweigh the ROY award.

 

[lbouchard]

Gotta be RG3 or Luck.Griffin's been better statistically, but on the other hand he hasn't been asked to do nearly as much. Going into tonight's game he only has 304 pass attempts compared to 503 for Luck. Griffin benefits from a dominant run game whereas the entire Colts offense flows through Luck. This makes it hard to compare their stats. They aren't really playing the same role. I don't know who I'd vote for. Both are worthy. I've never seen a rookie QB carry an entire offense like Luck. On the other hand, I've never seen a rookie QB be as effective with his opportunities as RG3. They have both been great. Just in different ways.

I lean Luck, but pretty much toss up.

 

[SSOG]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?

Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

Luck will win because he is taking the worst team in the NFL the previous year to the playoffs.That's unheard of...

Unheard of? Only if you've never heard of Vince Young- he took over a team that was 4-12 the year before and 0-3 without him, and he went 8-5. Or Ben Roethlisberger- he took the reins of a 6-10 team and then went 13-0. I'll agree that luck is largely responsible for Indy's record- but I mean the lowercase L kind. Indy has played three teams that currently have a winning record- a 20 point pasting by the Bears, a 35 point pasting by the Pats, and a 3 point win against the Packers in the "Win one for Chuck" game. They lost by 5 to the woeful Jags. They lost by 26 to the woeful Jets... on the road! They beat the 6-6 Vikes by 3 at home, posted one score home wins against the Browns, Dolphins, and Bills, got taken to overtime against the Titans, and needed a miracle rally to escape Detroit with a two point win. They have one win all season long by more than one score- a 17 point win against the post-MJD Jags. They've been out scored by 41 points on the season. I say without any hint of hyperbole that they are possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time, and their record has nothing to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's play, and everything to do with the difference between Luck and Griffin's schedule. If Washington played Indy tomorrow on a neutral field, Washington would (rightfully) be favored.

Neither VY or Big Ben were drafted #1. So they didn't go to the worst team as the OP made pretty clear.Luck will win if he takes the Colts to the playoffs. #'s show RGIII has a good argument to win, but he won't win it outright if Indy goes to the playoffs.

Cool. That's not the slightest bit an argument over semantics or anything. Luck went to the worst team, while Young went to the third worst team, and this is totally a very meaningful distinction. Meanwhile, the fact that Young played a tougher schedule or the fact that his team was 0-3 in games Young didn't start are meaningless distinctions. As for Roethlisberger... yes, he went to a better team, but the jump from 6-10 to 13-0 against a solid schedule (including becoming the first QB to beat undefeated teams in back to back weeks in week 8 or later) is far more impressive than the jump from 2-14 to 8-4 against a schedule of nobodies.

According to Football Outsiders' metrics, Indy is the 28th best team in the league this year. That's bottom 5. Their offense is ranked 16th. Washington is the 14th best team, with the 9th ranked offense. As I said, we're looking at possibly the worst 8-4 team of all time. Football Outsiders estimates that their profile is about what you'd expect from a team with 3.6 wins and 8.4 losses.

Since we are using Football outsiders metrics...This is how they have the top 5 QBR this year....

1) Brady

2) Manning

3) M. Ryan

4) Andrew Luck

5) RGIII

As was mentioned, QBR is no more a football outsiders stat than QB rating is. It says so, plain as day, on the stat page. To quote directly from the page:Total QBR (listed as just QBR) is a metric created by the ESPN Stats & Information group. Total QBR is based on the expected points added by the quarterback on each play, then adjusts the numbers to a scale of 0-100. There are five main differences between Total QBR and Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (with further explanation here):

Total QBR incorporates information from game charting, such as passes dropped or thrown away on purpose.

Total QBR splits responsibility on plays between the quarterback, his receivers, and his blockers. Drops, for example, are more on the receiver, as are yards after the catch, and some sacks are more on the offensive line than others.

Total QBR has a clutch factor which adds (or subtracts) value for quarterbacks who perform best (or worst) in high-leverage situations.

Total QBR combines passing and rushing value into one number and differentiates between scrambles and planned runs.

Total QBR is not adjusted for strength of opponent.

There are a ton of flaws with QBR, which isn't taken too seriously by the statistically-minded football community; it would take far too long to go into them now, but lets begin by looking at that last sentence. Not adjusted for strength of opponent. Which makes it a particularly bad statistic when my key point is that Luck's schedule has been Charmin-soft.

Football Outsider's proprietary statistics, DVOA and DYAR, are adjusted for strength of schedule. Robert Griffin ranks 8th in DVOA (14.2%) to Luck's 18th (-2.2%). DYAR is a counting stat instead of a rate stat, meaning players with huge attempt totals are rewarded, and Griffin still outranks Luck (10th vs. 16th), despite a paltry 60% as many attempts. Ironically, adding rushing stats actually helps Luck (largely because Griffin has 5 fumbles), but RGIII has just been far and away a better passer.

Wilson should win it, but will not because he plays on the West Coast and RG3 and Luck just have more hype surrounding them. If Wilson doesn't win, then it should be RG3. Luck is #3 on the list in my opinion.

Some quick stats about Wilson.

-Has the 2nd highest QB rating in the NFL since week 5, only behind Tom Brady

-Has not thrown an interception since the end of October

-Has a 2.38 TD to INT ratio. Luck has a 1.06 ratio.

-Is on pace to break Peyton Manning's rookie passing TD record

-First rookie to have 3 consecutive games with QB rating over 125

-Has best percentage completion by a significant margin over RG3 and Luck

Luck is playing very inefficient football and is accumulating passing yards because he is passing the ball so much. I understand that they are putting the ball in his hands, which is a testament to his skill but Luck is bottom of the league in passer rating, completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. Luck certainly has been impressive but Wilson is playing very efficiently and winning with game ending drives with the team on his shoulder.

VERY No way he actually wins it because the media has hyped Luck/RGIII from day one and the Seahawks just don't get the national pub. Wilson should win it...but will not. When its all said and done Wilson will have more rings and a gold jacket/bust in Canton..... that will far outweigh the ROY award.

I would like to see an argument for Wilson over Griffin that doesn't involve ignoring a third of the season.

 

[mad sweeney]

We should have a thread to chronicle the Battle of Front Page OROY Threads!

 

[dgreen]

Gotta be RG3 or Luck.

Griffin's been better statistically, but on the other hand he hasn't been asked to do nearly as much. Going into tonight's game he only has 304 pass attempts compared to 503 for Luck. Griffin benefits from a dominant run game whereas the entire Colts offense flows through Luck. This makes it hard to compare their stats. They aren't really playing the same role.

I don't know who I'd vote for. Both are worthy. I've never seen a rookie QB carry an entire offense like Luck. On the other hand, I've never seen a rookie QB be as effective with his opportunities as RG3. They have both been great. Just in different ways.

Griffin doesn't benefit from a dominant running game. He creates the dominant running game. The entire Redskins offense flows through Griffin, just in a different way than Indy's flows through Luck.

 

[two_dollars]

Gotta be RG3 or Luck.Griffin's been better statistically, but on the other hand he hasn't been asked to do nearly as much. Going into tonight's game he only has 304 pass attempts compared to 503 for Luck. Griffin benefits from a dominant run game whereas the entire Colts offense flows through Luck. This makes it hard to compare their stats. They aren't really playing the same role. I don't know who I'd vote for. Both are worthy. I've never seen a rookie QB carry an entire offense like Luck. On the other hand, I've never seen a rookie QB be as effective with his opportunities as RG3. They have both been great. Just in different ways.

post of the thread.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

TBD, voting now is irrelevant. It's neck and neck between RG3 and Luck. Both teams are in the playoff hunt and if one gets in and the other doesn't that will play a large factor. These next 4 games will decide who is the guy.

 

[jim k]

I think l would do co rookie of the year with luck and rgiii. Rgiii has become my favorite player in football. I traded him away a month ago and l just watch him as a fan. I am not a Washington fan. I am an rgiii fan. Both luck and rgiii l hope will play many a playoff game. A Superbowl with both pitted against each other in three years?

 

[Nucker101]

RG3 has been the best IMO, I know that people will look at Luck's record but IMO RG3 has done more for his team. He's also been without his top WR in Garcon for most of the season unlike Luck who has had Reggie Wayne and IMO has a better overall WR core. To be fair though, the Skins have a much better running game and don't rely on RG3 to throw the ball nearly as much as the Colts do with Luck.

4 great candidates this season though. I'd rank them like this: RG3, Luck, Wilson, Martin.

 

[Assani Fisher]

There's a rookie QB who is 2nd in ypa, 1st in AY/A, 3rd in ANY/A, 2nd in comp%, 2nd in QB Rating, with an extra 650/6 on the ground... And some people think he's not going to win RoY?Look, Luck this year has looked like one of the best rookie QBs of all time... But Griffin has looked like one of the best QBs of all time, regardless of experience. He's a rookie QB with a triple digit passer rating and 600 rushing yards (and counting), despite playing most of the year without his two best receivers. He's a slam dunk.

On pure numbers alone RGIII would win.However, when you factor in team achievement which ends up happening you see a team in indy that was 2-14 last year sitting now at 8 and 4. And then you have a Redskins team that was 5-11 last year with Beck/Grossman combo sitting at 5-6 right now. Although it is supposed to be an individual award. Team records factor into play.

The Redskins are 6th in points scored, the Colts are 17th. A QB only controls part of what goes into team wins.

 

[Neofight]

It's Griffin for the moment. He's clearly played better than Luck and has his team contending for a division title having played much tougher competition. I think Wilson will join the conversation if he continues to improve every week and the Seahawks win out. Both of those are real possibilities.

 

[renesauz]

Gotta be RG3 or Luck.Griffin's been better statistically, but on the other hand he hasn't been asked to do nearly as much. Going into tonight's game he only has 304 pass attempts compared to 503 for Luck. Griffin benefits from a dominant run game whereas the entire Colts offense flows through Luck. This makes it hard to compare their stats. They aren't really playing the same role. I don't know who I'd vote for. Both are worthy. I've never seen a rookie QB carry an entire offense like Luck. On the other hand, I've never seen a rookie QB be as effective with his opportunities as RG3. They have both been great. Just in different ways.

I lean Luck, but pretty much toss up.

Feel the same way, but would lean Griffin.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Football Outsider's proprietary statistics, DVOA and DYAR, are adjusted for strength of schedule. Robert Griffin ranks 8th in DVOA (14.2%) to Luck's 18th (-2.2%). DYAR is a counting stat instead of a rate stat, meaning players with huge attempt totals are rewarded, and Griffin still outranks Luck (10th vs. 16th), despite a paltry 60% as many attempts. Ironically, adding rushing stats actually helps Luck (largely because Griffin has 5 fumbles), but RGIII has just been far and away a better passer.

I'd have found this impossible to believe if I hadn't just looked the stats up myself. Luck is actually below replacement level in DVOA! We're talking Joe Flacco / Josh Freeman / Sam Bradford territory.

IMO if these two guys were part of the NFL draft class of 2022 rather than 2012, we wouldn't even be having this conversation - RGIII would be a landslide winner, and Luck would probably finish 4th in the voting, behind the other 3 names being mentioned. But the NFL in general (and media / voters in particular) seem to be about 10 years behind their MLB counterparts when it comes to sabermetrics, which is why I think it'll come down, unfairly or not, to whose team(s) make the playoffs.

If both teams get in, I see RGIII getting the nod over Luck because he plays in the NFC East, which is so beloved of sportswriters and ESPN talking heads.

If the 'Skins wind up on the outside looking in and Indy (as I expect) locks up the WC, Luck gets the nod.

 

[DevilintheDetail]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

 

[SoCalBroncoFan]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

 

[Neofight]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

TBD, voting now is irrelevant. It's neck and neck between RG3 and Luck. Both teams are in the playoff hunt and if one gets in and the other doesn't that will play a large factor. These next 4 games will decide who is the guy.

Agreed. But this scenario also leans towards Griffin, IMO, who has a clearer shot. They just beat the Giants, and will have a tough test with the Ravens this weekend -- though I think it's a game the Skins can -- and will -- actually win, being at home and against a reeling BAL D. Beating the Browns and Eagles is extremely do-able, and if they go on to beat the Cowboys in Week 17, could very well lock that division up, with a last quarter of the season running the table on in-division games.I don't see how doing that would result in anything else than the ROY awarded to Griffin.IND could also feasibly win their division, having to play the Texans twice, as well as some beatable teams in TEN and KC. Though the Colts have a poorer surrounding cast to help Luck make this happen, thus making it a much more impressive feat and making Luck more worthy of the award, I just don't see the Colts sweeping HOU.

 

[EBF]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

It absolutely makes things easier.Who do you think teams worry about when they play Seattle? Marshawn Lynch.Who do you think teams worry about when they play the Colts? Andrew Luck.Andrew Luck is Indy's entire offense. They have one of the bottom 5 running back stables in the NFL and a pretty ho-hum OL. That absolutely makes Luck's job harder. It is harder to succeed when the whole defensive gameplan is designed to stop you.Wilson is not carrying the team. He's a game manager. Seattle runs to set up the pass. Indy passes to set up the pass. Not parallel situations.

 

[mad sweeney]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

It absolutely makes things easier.Who do you think teams worry about when they play Seattle? Marshawn Lynch.Who do you think teams worry about when they play the Colts? Andrew Luck.Andrew Luck is Indy's entire offense. They have one of the bottom 5 running back stables in the NFL and a pretty ho-hum OL. That absolutely makes Luck's job harder. It is harder to succeed when the whole defensive gameplan is designed to stop you.Wilson is not carrying the team. He's a game manager. Seattle runs to set up the pass. Indy passes to set up the pass. Not parallel situations.

Two or three games ago I'd agree with you about Wilson being a game manager. That's just not true anymore. He had the team in his back in Chicago and he owned the Bears D twice in a row when it counted most. The days of calling Wilson a manager, while being justified in the first half of the season, are gone. As much as I would like it, I just don't see any way Wilson can (ir should) win it. Quite frankly, not getting it may just light yet another fire under his ### to continue to improve. What's amazing is that all 3 rookie QBs may very well be leading their team into the playoffs, and all three could be doing it at home.

 

[Neofight]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

It absolutely makes things easier.Who do you think teams worry about when they play Seattle? Marshawn Lynch.Who do you think teams worry about when they play the Colts? Andrew Luck.Andrew Luck is Indy's entire offense. They have one of the bottom 5 running back stables in the NFL and a pretty ho-hum OL. That absolutely makes Luck's job harder. It is harder to succeed when the whole defensive gameplan is designed to stop you.Wilson is not carrying the team. He's a game manager. Seattle runs to set up the pass. Indy passes to set up the pass. Not parallel situations.

You didn't address the question; the answer is no.And don't think teams aren't gameplanning for Wilson. The post Chicago talk was nothing but praise for the "monster".No one player is an entire offense. Absolute arguments like yours are always a loser.

 

[EBF]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

It absolutely makes things easier.Who do you think teams worry about when they play Seattle? Marshawn Lynch.Who do you think teams worry about when they play the Colts? Andrew Luck.Andrew Luck is Indy's entire offense. They have one of the bottom 5 running back stables in the NFL and a pretty ho-hum OL. That absolutely makes Luck's job harder. It is harder to succeed when the whole defensive gameplan is designed to stop you.Wilson is not carrying the team. He's a game manager. Seattle runs to set up the pass. Indy passes to set up the pass. Not parallel situations.

Two or three games ago I'd agree with you about Wilson being a game manager. That's just not true anymore. He had the team in his back in Chicago and he owned the Bears D twice in a row when it counted most. The days of calling Wilson a manager, while being justified in the first half of the season, are gone. As much as I would like it, I just don't see any way Wilson can (ir should) win it. Quite frankly, not getting it may just light yet another fire under his ### to continue to improve. What's amazing is that all 3 rookie QBs may very well be leading their team into the playoffs, and all three could be doing it at home.

Luck has thrown the ball almost 200 times more than Wilson. Wilson probably ranks in the bottom third of NFL QBs in attempts per game.Game manager. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the skills to be more, but right now he's not carrying the team by any means.

 

[Neofight]

Watch the games man. No one is going to agree with your tripe.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

 

[ImTheScientist]

Luck has thrown the ball almost 200 times more than Wilson. Wilson probably ranks in the bottom third of NFL QBs in attempts per game.Game manager. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the skills to be more, but right now he's not carrying the team by any means.

You are embarrassing yourself. Please stop.

 

[EBF]

Luck has thrown the ball almost 200 times more than Wilson. Wilson probably ranks in the bottom third of NFL QBs in attempts per game.Game manager. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the skills to be more, but right now he's not carrying the team by any means.

You are embarrassing yourself. Please stop.

Yea, you're right.It's totally legit to compare the efficiency stats of a guy who throws it 41.9 times per game on a team with no good running backs to a guy who throws it 26.4 times per game with a Pro Bowl RB. Totally parallel situations.

 

[mad sweeney]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

It absolutely makes things easier.Who do you think teams worry about when they play Seattle? Marshawn Lynch.Who do you think teams worry about when they play the Colts? Andrew Luck.Andrew Luck is Indy's entire offense. They have one of the bottom 5 running back stables in the NFL and a pretty ho-hum OL. That absolutely makes Luck's job harder. It is harder to succeed when the whole defensive gameplan is designed to stop you.Wilson is not carrying the team. He's a game manager. Seattle runs to set up the pass. Indy passes to set up the pass. Not parallel situations.

Two or three games ago I'd agree with you about Wilson being a game manager. That's just not true anymore. He had the team in his back in Chicago and he owned the Bears D twice in a row when it counted most. The days of calling Wilson a manager, while being justified in the first half of the season, are gone. As much as I would like it, I just don't see any way Wilson can (ir should) win it. Quite frankly, not getting it may just light yet another fire under his ### to continue to improve. What's amazing is that all 3 rookie QBs may very well be leading their team into the playoffs, and all three could be doing it at home.

Luck has thrown the ball almost 200 times more than Wilson. Wilson probably ranks in the bottom third of NFL QBs in attempts per game.Game manager. That doesn't mean he doesn't have the skills to be more, but right now he's not carrying the team by any means.

Like I said, you're not watching him recently then. Pass attempts isn't the tell all of a game manager, and his attempts per game has steadily increased. He was a game manager, he no longer is.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Race For Rookie of the Year, Week 13

Khaled Elsayed | 2012/12/04

I know there’s a great debate going on. Three rookie quarterbacks putting their team on track to make the playoffs.

But really when you watch the tape, and you watch all 60 minutes of a game, it isn’t close. That’s not to discredit the achievements of two men, but rather to put into perspective how outstanding one man has been (and how his coaches have played to his strengths).

It’s why this Race for a Rookie of the Year is near enough done. I’m calling it now as a Race for the Runner-Up spot.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/04/race-for-rookie-of-the-year-week-13/

 

[biju]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

It absolutely makes things easier.Who do you think teams worry about when they play Seattle? Marshawn Lynch.

Christian Ponder agrees--having a probowl RB makes things a lot easier.

 

[Warrior]

It's Griffin for the moment. He's clearly played better than Luck and has his team contending for a division title having played much tougher competition. I think Wilson will join the conversation if he continues to improve every week and the Seahawks win out. Both of those are real possibilities.

Agreed.

 

[dgreen]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

It absolutely makes things easier.Who do you think teams worry about when they play Seattle? Marshawn Lynch.

Christian Ponder agrees--having a probowl RB makes things a lot easier.

Just imagine how much more he'd suck without Peterson.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Also nothing against coach Pagano/Arians, but I think having a guy like Shanahan who has 2 SB rings and offenses that have 13 times finished in the top 5 in overall yards during his coching career help RG3 out.

I think if it were decided now after that great performance and big win in NY. RG3 is ahead of Luck and then Wilson.

 

[biju]

Here's a GREAT comparison of Wilson and Luck vs. the same 7 opponents this season. Wilson comes out WAY ahead.http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/83695/wilson-luck-vs-same-seven-opponents

DO you think the fact that Wilson's team has a Top 5 defense and Marshawn Lynch running the ball helps his numbers?

Are you implying that having a stout D and playing ball control pad a QB's stats?

It absolutely makes things easier.Who do you think teams worry about when they play Seattle? Marshawn Lynch.

Christian Ponder agrees--having a probowl RB makes things a lot easier.

Just imagine how much more he'd suck without Peterson.

Wouldn't the stance actually make more sense if you said Ponder would throw the ball more and thus have better stats and generally be more effective if he didn't have him? I mean, that's what the insinuation is (and I realize this wasn't you who said this) about Luck, right?

 

[SSOG]

Also nothing against coach Pagano/Arians, but I think having a guy like Shanahan who has 2 SB rings and offenses that have 13 times finished in the top 5 in overall yards during his coching career help RG3 out.

I was talking about this before the season. Pretty much every QB who has spent part of his career working with Shanahan and part of his career somewhere else has had the best seasons of his career under Shanahan- everyone from first-ballot HoFers (Young, Elway) to pro bowlers (Plummer, Cutler) to journeymen (Griese, Grossman) and career backups (Brister). Basically, outside of McNabb, QBs do noticeably better with Shanahan than they do without him. Nobody else in the league can match his track record for developing quarterbacks, scheming to their strengths, and maximizing their production.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Race for Rookie of the Year, Week 16

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/25/roty/

1. Russell Wilson, QB, SEA (+33.1)

I remember talking about Wilson with Neil Hornsby during preseason. He came away convinced he was pretty special, to which my cynical response was let’s see how he would do during the regular season. Well, the cynic in me dies a little every time I see Wilson, instead I’m stunned by his play. He was superb against San Francisco and his form, especially in the second half of the year, makes a mockery of the fact 74 players were taken ahead of him in any draft class. There aren’t 74 players in the league I’d take over him.

2. Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS (+31.8)

This week RG3 attempted only 24 passes, yet his adjusted accuracy percentage of 95% should tell you how on target he was. A good performance with him not really testing the Eagles’ secondary, and with Wilson playing so well he drops from the top spot for the first time. Play well and win against Dallas though and it will take some performance to keep him from the top spot.

3. Andrew Luck, QB, IND (+3.5)

The Chiefs’ defense is no pushover, so it should probably relieve a lot of Colts fans that it’s the best Luck has played for quite some time. His accuracy still concerns me, but I’m looking forward to seeing him in the playoffs.

 

[Alkahsu]

I think it's safe to say Luck is not even in the conversation for ROY at this point. If he wins then the award is based on something other than performance.

 

[dgreen]

Rookie of the Week awards so far:

1 Griffin

2 Richardson

3 Luck

4 Griffin

5 Luck

6 Griffin

7 Morris

8 Luck

9 Martin

10 Wilson

11 Griffin

12 Griffin

13 Griffin

14 Morris

15 Cousins

I expect Wilson to win week 16.

 

[Rick James]

RGIII..Luck.....Doug Martin..Russell Wilson

Man, funny how things changed in just 3 weeks. Now it looks like the award is Russell Wilson's to lose, IMO.

 

[Raider Nation]

This is gonna be one CRAZY vote.

Three incredibly deserving guys, and that's not even mentioning Morris who has 1,478 total yards and 10 TDs!

 

[Apple Jack]

RGIII..Luck.....Doug Martin..Russell Wilson

Man, funny how things changed in just 3 weeks. Now it looks like the award is Russell Wilson's to lose, IMO.

I wouldn't go that far.

 

[mad sweeney]

This is gonna be one CRAZY vote. Three incredibly deserving guys, and that's not even mentioning Morris who has 1,478 total yards and 10 TDs!

I think he went over 1600 on the ground for the year and upped his TD total to 13 tonight.

 

[Todd Andrews]

This is gonna be one CRAZY vote. Three incredibly deserving guys, and that's not even mentioning Morris who has 1,478 total yards and 10 TDs!

Morris has 1600 plus yards and 13 TDs, and the most rushing yards of any running back in a season in Redskins history. In any normal year he would be ROY. Now he is #4 (I rank him just ahead of Martin).But Griffin still wins it. He almost has the highest passer rating in the NFL behind only Rodgers, a former league MVP. He has 20 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 3000 plus passing yards, 800 plus rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs. And a seven game winning streak to close out the year. And I think Wilson is a star.

 

[Raider Nation]

My bad. Even more impressive.

I was looking at his stats page at ESPN. They had his stats from tonight but I guess they didn't update his season totals yet.

 

[Neofight]

This is gonna be one CRAZY vote. Three incredibly deserving guys, and that's not even mentioning Morris who has 1,478 total yards and 10 TDs!

Morris has 1600 plus yards and 13 TDs, and the most rushing yards of any running back in a season in Redskins history. In any normal year he would be ROY. Now he is #4 (I rank him just ahead of Martin).But Griffin still wins it. He almost has the highest passer rating in the NFL behind only Rodgers, a former league MVP. He has 20 passing TDs, 5 INTs, 3000 plus passing yards, 800 plus rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs. And a seven game winning streak to close out the year. And I think Wilson is a star.

Mostly agree, but RGIII had Cousins in relief to win one of those games and didn't play in another. In the game Griffin missed the Redskins ran the exact same offensive concepts with Cousins as they have with RGIII, and they didn't miss a beat. I honestly do not believe you could say the same thing with Flynn replacing Wilson; Flynn wouldn't run the zone read and would be limited in the pistol as well. Therefore...

It's Griffin for the moment. He's clearly played better than Luck and has his team contending for a division title having played much tougher competition. I think Wilson will join the conversation if he continues to improve every week and the Seahawks win out. Both of those are real possibilities.

With RG III missing time and limited the last few weeks, I'd give it to Wilson. I would also vote Alfred Morris as the third place finisher with Luck in fourth.Having said that I think that the majority of voters will seek to validate early held beliefs and give it to Luck. The Pagano story and the wins (silly) will sway too many.