What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

*** Official 2012-13 Hot Stove Thread (1 Viewer)

'Eephus said:
'RnR said:
'shadyridr said:
McCarthy is a really really good pitcher. Just injury prone. Great signing
We'll see. There's that whole "Brain surgery because he got hit in the head by a line drive" thing to get over.
Flyball pitcher in a HR friendly park is another concern. I think he can still be successful w/ Arizona if he can stay healthy, but the latter isn't a given.
39.8% GB, 39.8% FB in his career, and the flyballs have come down some. Fluky LD% last year, but he seems to have gotten a bit more GB'y over time.I don't usually bum out over losing FA's, but kinda wish the A's kept McCarthy for sentimental purposes. Let's also not forget that this is his wife.

 
While Greinke did not get a no trade clause, he can opt out of the contract at the end of any season in which he gets traded.
I like this clause. The team can still deal him for value but if he gets put somewhere he doesn't like, he doesn't have to stay there.
 
'scoobus said:
'Eephus said:
Michael Young expected to accept trade to Phillies today. :mellow:
Complete profession. Good guy. Got some negative pub when Andrus first came up, but in the end has been a complete team guy.I will be rooting for him to succeed.
I agree he's a good team guy, but I soured on him big time when that whole Andrus thing happened. And then he pretty much did the same thing when we signed Beltre. Add in the fact that he has no glove, no speed, and now no bat (although it wouldn't surprise me if he rebounded somewhat next year), and I am more than happy to see him gone. Wish we could've sent Ron Washington with him.
Advanced fielding metrics have Young as a negative glove at 3B during his last two full seasons there (2009-2010).
Calling Young a negative glove at 3B puts it kindly how bad he is over there. Absolutely 0 range. On a hard it ball, it's pretty much move your body out of the way, close your eyes, and take a blind stab at the ball.
Old, overpaid guys are the new inefficiency (at least the Phillies hope so judging by their roster).
 
'scoobus said:
'Eephus said:
Michael Young expected to accept trade to Phillies today. :mellow:
Complete profession. Good guy. Got some negative pub when Andrus first came up, but in the end has been a complete team guy.I will be rooting for him to succeed.
I agree he's a good team guy, but I soured on him big time when that whole Andrus thing happened. And then he pretty much did the same thing when we signed Beltre. Add in the fact that he has no glove, no speed, and now no bat (although it wouldn't surprise me if he rebounded somewhat next year), and I am more than happy to see him gone. Wish we could've sent Ron Washington with him.
Advanced fielding metrics have Young as a negative glove at 3B during his last two full seasons there (2009-2010).
Calling Young a negative glove at 3B puts it kindly how bad he is over there. Absolutely 0 range. On a hard it ball, it's pretty much move your body out of the way, close your eyes, and take a blind stab at the ball.
Old, overpaid guys are the new inefficiency (at least the Phillies hope so judging by their roster).
The Phillies are one of the few teams where this kind of move makes sense. They're a big market team that's already all in on their old, expensive roster and they have a big hole at 3B. If everything falls the right way, they could make the playoffs where their starting pitching makes them dangerous.
 
'scoobus said:
'Eephus said:
Michael Young expected to accept trade to Phillies today. :mellow:
Complete profession. Good guy. Got some negative pub when Andrus first came up, but in the end has been a complete team guy.I will be rooting for him to succeed.
I agree he's a good team guy, but I soured on him big time when that whole Andrus thing happened. And then he pretty much did the same thing when we signed Beltre. Add in the fact that he has no glove, no speed, and now no bat (although it wouldn't surprise me if he rebounded somewhat next year), and I am more than happy to see him gone. Wish we could've sent Ron Washington with him.
Advanced fielding metrics have Young as a negative glove at 3B during his last two full seasons there (2009-2010).
Calling Young a negative glove at 3B puts it kindly how bad he is over there. Absolutely 0 range. On a hard it ball, it's pretty much move your body out of the way, close your eyes, and take a blind stab at the ball.
Old, overpaid guys are the new inefficiency (at least the Phillies hope so judging by their roster).
The Phillies are one of the few teams where this kind of move makes sense. They're a big market team that's already all in on their old, expensive roster and they have a big hole at 3B. If everything falls the right way, they could make the playoffs where their starting pitching makes them dangerous.
Sure, but there's a good chance they still have a big hole at 3B.
 
'scoobus said:
'Eephus said:
Michael Young expected to accept trade to Phillies today. :mellow:
Complete profession. Good guy. Got some negative pub when Andrus first came up, but in the end has been a complete team guy.I will be rooting for him to succeed.
I agree he's a good team guy, but I soured on him big time when that whole Andrus thing happened. And then he pretty much did the same thing when we signed Beltre. Add in the fact that he has no glove, no speed, and now no bat (although it wouldn't surprise me if he rebounded somewhat next year), and I am more than happy to see him gone. Wish we could've sent Ron Washington with him.
Advanced fielding metrics have Young as a negative glove at 3B during his last two full seasons there (2009-2010).
Calling Young a negative glove at 3B puts it kindly how bad he is over there. Absolutely 0 range. On a hard it ball, it's pretty much move your body out of the way, close your eyes, and take a blind stab at the ball.
Old, overpaid guys are the new inefficiency (at least the Phillies hope so judging by their roster).
The Phillies are one of the few teams where this kind of move makes sense. They're a big market team that's already all in on their old, expensive roster and they have a big hole at 3B. If everything falls the right way, they could make the playoffs where their starting pitching makes them dangerous.
Sure, but there's a good chance they still have a big hole at 3B.
$6M seems like a reasonable risk to see whether Young has anything left
 
Indians going to sign Reynolds for 1 year, 6 million.

This might mean Youk to the Yanks...although the Indians could use both.

 
@TBTimes_Rays: Hearing #Rays have traded Shields AND Davis to #Royals. Working on confirmation and return

PleasebeMyerspleasebeMyerspleasebeMyers

 
@TBTimes_Rays: Hearing #Rays have traded Shields AND Davis to #Royals. Working on confirmation and returnPleasebeMyerspleasebeMyerspleasebeMyers
It has to be
Reportedly the Rays were holding out for more than him, which seemed odd to me. But if Davis is included it definitely has to be him and another decent bat.
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_RosenthalSource: #Rays will send James Shields and Wade Davis to #Royals for Wil Myers and other prospects.
 
@DAVIDprice14: Lies!!!!! RT @Ken_Rosenthal: #Rays will send James Shields and Wade Davis to #Royals for Wil Myers and other prospects.

:unsure:

 
@TBTimes_Rays: Huge #Rays trade is Shields AND Davis (and PTBNL) to #Royals for OF Myers, RHP Odorizzi, LHP Montgomery, 3B Leonard

 
@robneyer

My quick take: This is the worst trade in MLB history unless Wade Davis becomes a good starter, in which case it's only the second worst.

 
I actually think this trade makes sense for both sides IF the Royals sign another pitcher like Dempster or someone on that tier. You can only have "the best farm system in baseball" for so long, at some point you have to go for it. If they don't sign another pitcher though this is a wasted trade to go become a .500 team.

 
I was shocked by this one. I heard on the MLB Radio channel the other night, the show that Steve Phillips was on, they were speculating the Royals GM was feeling heat to win now or might be out. Phillips made a good point that prospects basically get you fired. The guy may be an all-star for 10 years starting 2 years from now but if you get fired after your team has a disappointing season this coming year then what does it matter? Still, if I'm high up in that organization and have the power, I put a stop to that deal.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I actually think this trade makes sense for both sides IF the Royals sign another pitcher like Dempster or someone on that tier. You can only have "the best farm system in baseball" for so long, at some point you have to go for it. If they don't sign another pitcher though this is a wasted trade to go become a .500 team.
Yea I mean Shields will definitely give them two good to very good years. Davis can eat up the back end of a staff. I don't know enough about the Royals to say if they can contend this year, but I sure as hell wouldn't have said the Orioles or A's could have last year either. Either way as a Rays fan, I'm stoked. This deal and the Longoria extension has made this an awesome winter.
 
I guess:

Shields

Guthrie

Santana

Chen

Davis

is enough to be a contender in the AL Central? Rays may be slightly worse in 2013 depending on Myers' arrival and impact but they get something like 18 years of control over Myers/Odorizzi/Montgomery and with their starting pitching depth will barely miss a beat.

 
I actually think this trade makes sense for both sides IF the Royals sign another pitcher like Dempster or someone on that tier. You can only have "the best farm system in baseball" for so long, at some point you have to go for it. If they don't sign another pitcher though this is a wasted trade to go become a .500 team.
Yea I mean Shields will definitely give them two good to very good years. Davis can eat up the back end of a staff. I don't know enough about the Royals to say if they can contend this year, but I sure as hell wouldn't have said the Orioles or A's could have last year either. Either way as a Rays fan, I'm stoked. This deal and the Longoria extension has made this an awesome winter.
There's no doubt the Rays got the better end of this trade. I just think people (here, Twitter, etc.) are coming down too hard on KC. I get why they're going for it and this is a good start - they just upgraded two spots in their rotation without hurting anything at the MLB level. I think if they go after Dempster or Sanchez that makes sense too. Hell, might as well cash in the rest of the chips and trade for Upton. I think this trade makes sense for the Royals if they do more and truly go for it, and is a disaster if they just stand pat with the Ervin Santana trade their second biggest move this offseason.But yeah, the Rays won for sure.
 
What the hell have the Royals done to think they're in a position to "go for it?"

It makes no sense, you're patient for all that time, build up your farm system, and then just #### it away because you can't wait a little longer. I mean Shields is great and all, but as a whole their pitching staff is still sub par, this doesn't put them over the top or anything even close to that.

 
I think the Royals should have been shopping Butler, not Myers, but they got a front end starter in Shields for 2 years at a very affordable contract. I really like the deal for the Rays as they get a big time blue chip prospect under team control of a while and trade from an area of strength.

Royals pitching is much improved and they did not give up any regulars. If their young hitters improve on last year, they can be a factor in the central, They need another starter, IMO.

 
It makes no sense, you're patient for all that time, build up your farm system, and then just #### it away because you can't wait a little longer. I mean Shields is great and all, but as a whole their pitching staff is still sub par, this doesn't put them over the top or anything even close to that.
I agree with all this. I still get it and as long as they don't stand pat now I could even be on board a little bit.SIDE NOTE: I'm trying not to let it, but I have a $50 bet with my brother that the Royals would win a division title by 2014 (made in 2000) so I may be biased.
 
Not sure where you guys have been but the Roylas have been "building up their farm system" for the better part of two decades now. They need to move, they have the hitting to be a playoff team but their pitching is the suck. That is a great trade for the Royals IMO.

Also every time Eephus posts something in here I think of this guy

 
Not sure where you guys have been but the Roylas have been "building up their farm system" for the better part of two decades now. They need to move, they have the hitting to be a playoff team but their pitching is the suck. That is a great trade for the Royals IMO.

Also every time Eephus posts something in here I think of this guy
:goodposting: Gets it. Time to make a move.

 
Not sure where you guys have been but the Roylas have been "building up their farm system" for the better part of two decades now. They need to move, they have the hitting to be a playoff team but their pitching is the suck. That is a great trade for the Royals IMO.
Their hitting was terrible last year though.I'm not saying never move any prospects, but you think this is the trade they should've made?

 
Not sure where you guys have been but the Roylas have been "building up their farm system" for the better part of two decades now. They need to move, they have the hitting to be a playoff team but their pitching is the suck. That is a great trade for the Royals IMO.
Their hitting was terrible last year though.I'm not saying never move any prospects, but you think this is the trade they should've made?
They have the core Hosmer, Butler, Gordan, Escobar, Mous and Sal Perez. A good mix of youth and experience, power and contact plus they have one of the best if not the best fielding OF in the majors. I don't know if this is the trade they should have made but Davis was a top prospect three years ago himself and Shields is a very proven commodity. To me its a no-brainer.
 
I actually think this trade makes sense for both sides IF the Royals sign another pitcher like Dempster or someone on that tier. You can only have "the best farm system in baseball" for so long, at some point you have to go for it. If they don't sign another pitcher though this is a wasted trade to go become a .500 team.
See, below.
I was shocked by this one. I heard on the MLB Radio channel the other night, the show that Steve Phillips was on, they were speculating the Royals GM was feeling heat to win now or might be out. Phillips made a good point that prospects basically get you fired. The guy may be an all-star for 10 years starting 2 years from now but if you get fired after your team has a disappointing season this coming year then what does it matter? Still, if I'm high up in that organization and have the power, I put a stop to that deal.
Desperation causes GM's to make stupid, short sighted decisions to save themselves and not think of what's best for the team. Selling bats for arms was the right move, but Myers wasn't the right bat. As detailed above, his worst case is a very good OF. His best case is cornerstone of a franchise. Teams like the Royals cannot trade those types, at least not before their clock has even started, they have to trade guys that could be good but won't be great.
 
What the hell have the Royals done to think they're in a position to "go for it?"It makes no sense, you're patient for all that time, build up your farm system, and then just #### it away because you can't wait a little longer. I mean Shields is great and all, but as a whole their pitching staff is still sub par, this doesn't put them over the top or anything even close to that.
:goodposting: Effin' Royals. Just doesn't make sense. I suppose this is in part why they're the Royals. Though Myers is no sure thing. Didn't he have a big strikeout rate in AAA last year? The power is tantalizing but the strikeouts are less appealing.
 
As detailed above, his worst case is a very good OF. His best case is cornerstone of a franchise.
No this is not the best and worst case. The worst case is he never adjusts to major league pitching, something that happens A LOT to top prospects. In 2006 Lastings Milledge was a top five prospect, Travis Snider and Andy LaRoche were the next "cornerstones" who never developed.
 
Put me in the Eephus/Premier/Lester camp on this one.

You don't win a WS by creating a 2 year window. You try to keep the window open as long as possible, and just hope you don't get skunked in a short series. Get good, stay good, get Giants-lucky. Assuming that every team has a finite amount of money (safe to say for 29 MLB teams, at least), there's no more valuable asset than an elite hitter under team control. Myers is worth a lot more in terms of projected WAR/salary than a lot of reputable, established stars.

Davis might be a reliever, albeit a career reliever. Odorizzi might be better than Davis. I don't know what's wrong with Montgomery, but I think it's also worth noting that Patrick Leonard looked promising in rookie ball. Myers is awesome, obviously.

If Myers was blocked, or they could've gotten a pitcher with similar promise under rookie control, I can see how it'd make sense. But this is a massacre. Fangraphs also kills this trade, FWIW, and makes a good comp. to Bedard: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/royals-mortgage-future-to-be-mediocre-in-2013/

The Rays are the Rays, and the Royals are the Royals.

 
As detailed above, his worst case is a very good OF. His best case is cornerstone of a franchise.
No this is not the best and worst case. The worst case is he never adjusts to major league pitching, something that happens A LOT to top prospects. In 2006 Lastings Milledge was a top five prospect, Travis Snider and Andy LaRoche were the next "cornerstones" who never developed.
Not really my point, teams like the Royals cannot trade potentially great MLB ready prospects for a short term fix. Shields is 31 and Davis is a failed starter. Yes, anything can happen. Shields could go Carl Crawford on the Royals, Wade Davis could go Wainwright...you never know. Point is a team like KC cannot make this trade. Moving the pitchers makes sense, even if it's selling low. Butler does too. Not Myers. Sell players that are or could be good, can't sell players that could be great.
 
Law:

The Kansas City Royals' main goal this offseason had to be to make the club into a potential 85-win team, at a minimum. In a desperately weak AL Central, an 85 win baseline puts you within variance of contention -- a little luck, a breakout or two, some ill fortune in Detroit or Chicago -- and that's about the best that GM Dayton Moore could reasonably have accomplished in one winter.The best path to do that was to try to max out the lineup, adding top prospect Wil Myers in right field in place of Jeff Francoeur and all the outs he makes, letting new hitting coach Jack Maloof try to fix Eric Hosmer by getting his hands down, and adding starting pitching wherever possible. Instead, the Royals traded Myers for pitching help in a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays featuring James Shields that might make them slightly better in the short term but at a severe long-term cost -- and it's quite possible they don't even sniff 80 wins with the pitching they just acquired, unless there's another substantial deal coming.Royals get help at a costThe Royals did get pitching help for 2013, clearly. They had no one on their 2012 staff who was close to as valuable as Shields was -- using Fangraphs' WAR, for one quick reference point, Shields' total of 4.3 was more than double that of any Royals' starters. Kansas City used a lot of replacement-level arms in its rotation this past season and might have done so again, so Shields really could add 4-5 wins to the Royals' win total by adding 220 of his usual innings and ridding the team of the need to use guys the caliber of Nate Adcock and Vin Mazzaro. Shields has plus command with an out-pitch changeup and an above-average curveball, but can be homer-prone because his fastball isn't that hard and is a little true. His contract will pay him over $22 million over the next two years, making him a good value but not an outstanding one.Kansas City also got Wade Davis in this deal, and I'd like to see him given another shot in the rotation even with his newfound success in relief, where his stuff got dramatically better and his strikeout rate spiked. It could be a spring training experiment where the team stretches him out and sees how his arm responds -- if he's back down to 2011 levels, they scrap it and put him in the pen, but when he was coming up as a prospect he threw harder and had better bite on his curveball.At 92-95 mph on his fastball with a curveball around 80-82, which is what he was in the minors but less than what he showed in relief this year, he'd have a chance to be a league-average starter, especially given his size and capacity to handle 200 innings. Even a 2-WAR guy is helpful to a team that just nonsensically guaranteed it will pay Luke Hochevar about $5.5 million to post a 5-plus ERA, and Davis could be better than that if his stuff holds up in the rotation. At worst, he returns to the pen where he was excellent in 2012, but only provides about 70 innings of work.[+] Enlarge Kim Klement/US PresswireA workhorse, Sheilds has thrown more than 225 innings in each of the last two years.The net result for the Royals, assuming that the PTBNL is not significant, is that they probably added 3-4 wins for 2013 with this trade, and that's just not enough to get them into contention, or to justify giving up one of the top two pure hitting prospects (along with Oscar Taveras of the St. Louis Cardinals) in all of the minors. The deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job, which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions.Unfortunately, as with former Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and the Erik Bedard deal, trades made under those circumstances often come back around to be the cause of a change in leadership -- and this looks very much like the deal that, barring something completely unexpected, will be the move that brings Dayton Moore's tenure in Kansas City, one marked by massive improvement in the team's farm system, to an end.Rays cash inFor Tampa Bay, this is a heist, a potential franchise-making deal that should allow the Rays to continue their run of contention on a dime for several more years as they acquire a centerpiece bat in Myers, a potential mid-rotation starter in Jake Odorizzi, and two other prospects, none of whom has more than a few days of major-league service -- meaning the Rays get six years of club control of each of them.Myers is by far the most important name here, a top-five prospect in all of baseball who has raked at every level and should have debuted in the majors this summer but was blocked by the Royals' Francoeur fetish. His swing is very simple and he has quick wrists to generate bat speed; he's lengthened his stride at the plate, giving him a longer finish for more power with the slight downside of some collapse on his back side, which probably explains the high strikeout rate in Triple-A. I could see him debuting this year with a modest average but strong power numbers, only to bring the average up in time because he's a smart, patient hitter who'll also increase his bat control as his body matures. In the long run, he's a potential top-five overall player in the league, and you don't get guys like that just any day.Odorizzi finished strongly in Triple-A for the Royals this year and is major-league ready or close to it. The righty is a former high school wide receiver who's very athletic with a clean, repeatable delivery -- maybe too clean as he doesn't have a ton of deception and his 90-94 mph fastball is straight, making him a touch homer-prone. He has a four-pitch mix, led by a solid-average changeup that produced a reverse platoon split for him across Double- and Triple-A this year. I'd like to see him scrap one breaking ball, more likely the curve, to see if committing to one such pitch makes it more effective, but even without that I like his athleticism and fastball command even if he's not more more than an emergency callup in 2013.Lefty Mike Montgomery has the widest range of possible outcomes of the four players in the deal, because he has the stuff of a No. 2 starter and the command of the little kid down the block who aims for the living room window and breaks one on the second floor instead.He's had minor elbow issues but never had a serious injury; he was struggling with his landing in spring training, a relatively minor thing to fix, but was worse in 2012 than he had been the year before. Montgomery will touch 97 and sit in the low to mid-90s with an above-average changeup and a big, slow curveball that looks pretty but isn't hard or sharp enough to be more than a third pitch in his arsenal. He's had disputes with the Royals' player-development people over aspects of his between-outings regimen, and perhaps he just needed a change of scenery. His arm is live enough that he's absolutely worth taking a flier on even though there's a fairly high chance he ends up in the pen or as nothing at all.The Rays also got short-season outfielder Patrick Leonard, who has plus raw power from a somewhat uphill swing and a plus arm, although he's probably headed for first base in the long run and will have to show real improvement in his hit tool to profile there.The Rays still have a surplus of starters, with David Price the ace, Matt Moore not far behind, and Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all candidates for the other three spots, while Odorizzi himself is probably ready for a major-league role. More importantly, Myers could be their second-best hitter at some point this year, behind only Evan Longoria, given a mildly optimistic forecast for a guy who has always hit when healthy.Myers also gives them the impact hitting prospect they haven't had since Longoria --their best position-player prospects, like Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, and even Tim Beckham before his fall from grace -- have all been up-the-middle guys with more defensive value and less bat. Myers should be a good defensive right fielder in time, as he's a good athlete with very good instincts, but his value is going to come on offense, and that's something the Rays lack, even in the upper levels of their system.He alone for two years of Shields and three years of Davis (who has club options beyond that) would have made sense. To get Myers plus a likely mid-rotation starter plus a lefty with arm strength plus a low-level hitting prospect makes this an outstanding day for Rays fans.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top