*** Official 2013 San Diego Chargers **** (1 Viewer)

[Riversco]

Here's a simple graphic that shows all the AFC playoff possibilities. The 4 meaningful games are listed in the top row. Each row below that is one scenario. The winner in each scenario is listed. For example in the first row, if the Ravens, Jets, Chiefs, and Browns all win, the Ravens are the 6 seed.

There are a total of 16 scenarios.

The Ravens are the 6 in 7 scenarios.

The Dolphins are the 6 in 6 scenarios.

The Chargers are the 6 in 2 scenarios.

The Steelers are in the 6 in 1 scenario.

http://i.imgur.com/vqknZOh.png

None of the 4 teams control their own destiny. They all need help. The reason is that while the Ravens would win the 6 in a two-way tie, they actually lose in a three-way tie.

 

[Riversco]

If the Ravens win, 6 of 8 outcomes earn them a playoff spot. If the Dolphins win, 6 of 8 outcomes earn them a playoff spot.

 

[Riversco]

I think these are the playoff scenarios:

1. Assume Chargers finish with 9 wins.

2. Assume Ravens lose to the Patriots and Bengals.

3. Assume Dolphins lose to the Jets.

If the Patriots and Colts win in week 17, the Bengals host the Chargers.

If the Patriots are upset by the Bills and the Colts beat the Jaguars, its a 3 way tie at 11-5 and it means the Colts host the Chargers.

If the Patriots are upset by the BIlls and the Colts are upset by the Jaguars, the Patriots host the Chargers.

Looks like the Colts will win, so we can eliminate the scenario where the Chargers play the Patriots.

This means the Chargers opponent (in the event they qualify) entirely depends on the Patriots-Bills game.

1. If the Patriots win, the Chargers play the Bengals.

2. If the Bills win, the Chargers play the Colts.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

San Diego's odds currently at 50% according to Advanced Football Stats widget.

Things definitely breaking your way right now.

 

[Riversco]

The Chargers have beaten the Colts, Eagles, Broncos, Chiefs and Cowboys this year. I think they have the most impressive wins of any team in the NFL this year. This is a dangerous team if they can make it!

 

[Riversco]

The Chargers are actually 3-2 vs the Chiefs, Broncos, Colts, and Bengals combined. They did not play the Patriots.

 

[jurb26]

It will take a miracle loss today by SD to not make the playoffs. Balt and Mia losses as well as KC branching every significant player they have. Wow.

 

[Boltz Boy]

It shouldn't have come down to this (*cough* Redskins game *double cough* insert-Texans-Titans-etc. games here) but the team has been given a golden opportunity, especially with KC resting their starters. So...why am I so nervous?

C'mon guys, let's get this done.

 

[Nick Vermeil]

Unreal.

 

[ffldrew]

Your season as of now

 

[Deamon]

bloodbath coming here. Looking like a matchup @ Cinci round 1 in playoffs unless the pats lose to the bills.

 

[Riversco]

Welcome to the postseason.

The first game is against the Bengals. They met in week 13 in San Diego. The Bengals won 17-10. If the Chargers win, they go back to Denver and play the Broncos again. The Chargers beat the Broncos there two weeks ago, 27-20.

 

[Riversco]

Crazy fact of the day:

The last four super bowl champions (09 Saints, 10 Packers, 11 Giants, 12 Ravens) all have one thing in common. They all played the Eagles in the Eagles home opener. Who played the Eagles in their 2013 home opener? The Chargers.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Every Playoff Team's Record vs Other Playoff Teams

AFC:
Broncos: 4-3
Patriots: 2-2
Bengals: 4-0
Colts: 4-2
Chiefs: 1-5
Chargers: 5-2

NFC:
Seahawks: 3-2
Panthers: 3-2
Eagles: 1-3
Packers: 0-3
49ers: 2-4
Saints: 2-3

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

AfC is wide open, I honestly can see every team in the playoffs able to make a run if they get hot.

I know Denver looks unbeatable at times when they are clicking, but they are beatable.

Good luck week 1 guys, it should be a good game.

 

[Riversco]

Every Playoff Team's Record vs Other Playoff Teams

AFC:

Broncos: 4-3

Patriots: 2-2

Bengals: 4-0

Colts: 4-2

Chiefs: 1-5

Chargers: 5-2

NFC:

Seahawks: 3-2

Panthers: 3-2

Eagles: 1-3

Packers: 0-3

49ers: 2-4

Saints: 2-3

Most of the Chargers victories came against playoff teams. I wonder when THAT happened last?

 

[Tau837]

So lay out your scenario(s) that work better for the Chargers than keeping Rivers.

I think this is the place where we are having a disagreement.

IMO another 6-7 season(so far) is failure. The scenario better than failure is..... anything else.

Still taking this position?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

whata nice little xmas gift

glad for the players, the coaches and the fans

Cincy is beatable, lets see if we can get it done

 

[BoltBacker]

So lay out your scenario(s) that work better for the Chargers than keeping Rivers.

I think this is the place where we are having a disagreement.

IMO another 6-7 season(so far) is failure. The scenario better than failure is..... anything else.

Still taking this position?

Absolutely. Finishing ~.500 would have been a failure.

I give Rivers all the credit in the world for willing this team into the playoffs. I'm a scoreboard guy so while a lot of people will say that the fact this team finished 9-7 and made the playoffs deserves a great big "*" I disagree. At least he, McCoy, and even Telesco look like they have the team heading in the right direction.

Any QB that finishes ~.500 and misses the playoffs four years in a row doesn't deserve $16mil/season imo.... and to his credit he is not a member of that club. IMO the $16mil club should really be reserved for more than just making the playoffs but DET is paying Stafford $18mil and rumor has it someone is going to pay Cutler $16mil to continue to disappoint every season so I guess I'm the one that has the out of touch view point.

 

[Gr00vus]

I'm pleasantly surprised. Good season. Gives me much more hope for the future than I was expecting at this point. I don't think they'll win Sunday, their defense isn't good enough. I hope they don't lose sight of that in the offseason.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm pleasantly surprised. Good season. Gives me much more hope for the future than I was expecting at this point. I don't think they'll win Sunday, their defense isn't good enough. I hope they don't lose sight of that in the offseason.

They wont.

Oline and Def should be all the picks are used on, maybe an extra WR

 

[BoltBacker]

I'm pleasantly surprised. Good season. Gives me much more hope for the future than I was expecting at this point. I don't think they'll win Sunday, their defense isn't good enough. I hope they don't lose sight of that in the offseason.

They wont.

I'm encouraged by the fact they are at least trying to fill glaring weaknesses.

The deficiencies on the OL are still pretty obvious be the pressure KC's backups were able to get on Rivers last week but at least they brought in new bodies and really scored big with Fluker. They need to throw more new players at the OL for sure. This is supposed to be a good draft for that. They tried to address CB, at least partially, with the addition of Cox and that move was a complete and utter bust but at least they spent money on one of the highest rated CB's in FA. At the time I thought CB's were going so cheap they really should have brought in two veteran CB's since they lost both of their starters due to FA and Wright was so unproven. Again, a lot of quality CB prospects in this draft.

I guess I get a little too caught up on what could have been. Can you imagine if they would have signed Bushrod and Grimes at those reasonable contracts?

I think this is a great off season for signing talented FA WR's to "prove me" deals. I hope they look for a receiver or two on the scrap heap instead of spending precious draft picks on anyone. Also wouldn't mind if they signed a veteran backup QB. Freeman would be my choice but Sanchez/Schaub wouldn't be out of the question either. I'd love Vick but I really think he'll sign for more money to compete for a starting job.

 

[Gr00vus]

Why would you want Sanchez?

 

[Riversco]

whata nice little xmas gift

glad for the players, the coaches and the fans

Cincy is beatable, lets see if we can get it done

I figured this team was going to make waves next season, but the tumblers all fell into place. I started to get excited after what happened in week 16 because they had a real shot to make it in. Now the program has been accelerated. Its the perfect year to sneak in because the AFC doesn't have a dominant team.

 

[BoltBacker]

Why would you want Sanchez?

I think the Jets offensive situation was an absolute disaster. Sanchez doesn't get a shot at a starting job next year so he would be cheap but has playoff experience and success. I actually like Freeman better but both those guys might benefit from being around a guy like Rivers imo. Very little risk with either guy but a big improvement from Sorensen/Whitehurst. I'm still for drafting a guy in the ~4th round and developing him but if you think SD is a playoff contender next season you don't want the entire season to be over just because Rivers gets dinged and misses a game or two.

 

[BoltBacker]

In the first game against CIN they really targeted Richard Marshall any time they saw him isolated on a player. I would love to see SD disguise some coverages to give Marshall help when he looks like he's in a 1-on-1 matchup. I'm a Dalton fan but I do think he can fall victim of being a little predictable. To win vs CIN the Chargers really need to generate TO's.

In that game Gates had two very usual TO's(though only credited with one) so obviously you hope that doesn't repeat itself. Clary shouldn't be the starting RT so that should help this time around. The play of Te'o and Gilchrist may end up being the deciding factors. SD can't afford to give up as many rushing first downs as they did in the first meeting.

 

[Tau837]

Why would you want Sanchez?

I think the Jets offensive situation was an absolute disaster. Sanchez doesn't get a shot at a starting job next year so he would be cheap but has playoff experience and success. I actually like Freeman better but both those guys might benefit from being around a guy like Rivers imo. Very little risk with either guy but a big improvement from Sorensen/Whitehurst. I'm still for drafting a guy in the ~4th round and developing him but if you think SD is a playoff contender next season you don't want the entire season to be over just because Rivers gets dinged and misses a game or two.

I think signing a veteran backup QB would be a good move, although I don't think they should consider Freeman.

I don't think the Chargers should draft a QB. Too many other needs, and Rivers isn't going anywhere any time soon. Furthermore, drafting a QB in the 3rd round or later is almost always a waste, so I would never advocate that. IMO any team that feels that it needs to draft a QB should be planning to use a first or second round pick.

 

[BoltBacker]

IMO any team that feels that it needs to draft a QB should be planning to use a first or second round pick.

Disagree.

I think you need depth at every position in the NFL and you need to be grooming a young guy at all times like they do in PHI. They generally take guys in the middle rounds(Barkley is a text book example) and if a 4th rounder busts... so what? The problem with waiting until you are desperate for a starter and just taking a guy in the first round is you end up spending multiple seasons trying to find out if Gabbert or Weeden or Russell or Ponder were worth the high pick in the first place. A bad QB in the first round costs your franchise YEARS and multiple high picks to fix the same problem.

Yeah, sometimes the stars all align and a once-a-decade type QB comes out the year you need a QB and you happen to have the #1 pick in the draft(happened in INDY twice in a row) but I think it's pretty rare. Sometimes I think people forget just how much pain INDY had to endure before the stars aligned for those two picks.... and I'm a bigger fan of Jeff George than most.

 

[Tau837]

IMO any team that feels that it needs to draft a QB should be planning to use a first or second round pick.

Disagree.

I think you need depth at every position in the NFL and you need to be grooming a young guy at all times like they do in PHI. They generally take guys in the middle rounds(Barkley is a text book example) and if a 4th rounder busts... so what? The problem with waiting until you are desperate for a starter and just taking a guy in the first round is you end up spending multiple seasons trying to find out if Gabbert or Weeden or Russell or Ponder were worth the high pick in the first place. A bad QB in the first round costs your franchise YEARS and multiple high picks to fix the same problem.

Yeah, sometimes the stars all align and a once-a-decade type QB comes out the year you need a QB and you happen to have the #1 pick in the draft(happened in INDY twice in a row) but I think it's pretty rare. Sometimes I think people forget just how much pain INDY had to endure before the stars aligned for those two picks.... and I'm a bigger fan of Jeff George than most.

Here is the list of all QBs drafted in the 4th round or later in the past 20 years:

2013 4 Matt Barkley2013 4 Ryan Nassib2013 4 Tyler Wilson2013 4 Landry Jones2012 4 Kirk Cousins2010 4 Mike Kafka2009 4 Stephen McGee2007 4 Isaiah Stanback2006 4 Brad Smith2005 4 Kyle Orton2005 4 Stefan Lefors2004 4 Luke McCown2003 4 Seneca Wallace2002 4 David Garrard2002 4 Rohan Davey2001 4 Chris Weinke2001 4 Sage Rosenfels2001 4 Jesse Palmer1999 4 Joe Germaine1999 4 Aaron Brooks1997 4 Danny Wuerffel1997 4 Pat Barnes1996 4 Jeff Lewis1996 4 Danny Kanell1995 4 Rob Johnson1995 4 Chad May1995 4 Dave Barr1995 4 Steve Stenstrom1994 4 Perry Klein1994 4 Doug Nussmeier2011 5 Ricky Stanzi2011 5 T.J. Yates2011 5 Nathan Enderle2010 5 John Skelton2010 5 Jonathan Crompton2009 5 Rhett Bomar2009 5 Nate Davis2008 5 John David Booty2008 5 Dennis Dixon2008 5 Josh Johnson2008 5 Erik Ainge2007 5 Jeff Rowe2007 5 Troy Smith2006 5 Ingle Martin2006 5 Omar Jacobs2005 5 Dan Orlovsky2005 5 Adrian McPherson2004 5 Craig Krenzel2003 5 Brian St. Pierre2002 5 Randy Fasani2002 5 Kurt Kittner2002 5 Brandon Doman2002 5 Craig Nall2001 5 Mike McMahon2001 5 A.J. Feeley2000 5 Tee Martin1999 5 Kevin Daft1995 5 Jay Barker2012 6 Ryan Lindley2011 6 Tyrod Taylor2010 6 Rusty Smith2010 6 Dan LeFevour2010 6 Tony Pike2009 6 Tom Brandstater2009 6 Mike Teel2009 6 Keith Null2009 6 Curtis Painter2008 6 Colt Brennan2008 6 Andre Woodson2007 6 Jordan Palmer2006 6 Reggie McNeal2006 6 Bruce Gradkowski2005 6 Derek Anderson2004 6 Andy Hall2004 6 Josh Harris2004 6 Jim Sorgi2004 6 Jeff Smoker2003 6 Drew Henson2003 6 Brooks Bollinger2003 6 Kliff Kingsbury2002 6 J.T. O'Sullivan2002 6 Steve Bellisari2001 6 Josh Booty2001 6 Josh Heupel2000 6 Marc Bulger2000 6 Spergon Wynn2000 6 Tom Brady2000 6 Todd Husak2000 6 JaJuan Seider1998 6 John Dutton1998 6 Matt Hasselbeck1997 6 Mike Cherry1997 6 Chuck Clements1996 6 Spence Fischer1996 6 Mike Cawley1995 6 Jerry Colquitt1995 6 Craig Whelihan1994 6 Jim Miller2013 7 Brad Sorensen2013 7 Zac Dysert2013 7 B.J. Daniels2013 7 Sean Renfree2012 7 B.J. Coleman2012 7 Chandler Harnish2011 7 Greg McElroy2010 7 Levi Brown2010 7 Sean Canfield2010 7 Zac Robinson2008 7 Matt Flynn2008 7 Alex Brink2007 7 Tyler Thigpen2006 7 D.J. Shockley2005 7 James Kilian2005 7 Matt Cassel2005 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick2004 7 John Navarre2004 7 Cody Pickett2004 7 Casey Bramlet2004 7 Matt Mauck2004 7 B.J. Symons2004 7 Bradlee Van Pelt2003 7 Gibran Hamdan2003 7 Ken Dorsey2002 7 Seth Burford2002 7 Jeff Kelly2002 7 Wes Pate2000 7 Tim Rattay2000 7 Jarious Jackson2000 7 Joe Hamilton1999 7 Michael Bishop1999 7 Chris Greisen1999 7 Scott Covington1998 7 Moses Moreno1997 7 Tony Graziani1997 7 Koy Detmer1997 7 Wally Richardson1997 7 Tony Corbin1997 7 Ron McAda1996 7 Jon Stark1996 7 Kyle Wachholtz1995 7 John Walsh1994 7 Gus Frerotte1994 7 Jay Walker1994 7 Steve Matthews1994 7 Glenn FoleyYour posts suggest that by grooming you mean that the team would groom this QB to eventually take over for Rivers. That is 145 QBs above. Obviously, it's premature to judge some of the more recently drafted guys, but I am seeing just 2 of these guys as guys I would have been happy to have starting for my team: Brady and Hasselbeck. I suppose a few others would have been okay as stopgaps (e.g., Orton, Bulger), but I don't think you are talking about stopgaps.

Are you happy with that hit rate? Are you generally happy to just throw away 4th round picks? I'm not. In recent years, the Chargers drafted Ladarius Green, Shaun Phillips, and Darren Sproles in the 4th round.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'd be looking for a successor to Whitehurst, not Rivers. I think Brad Sorensen could easily became a Chase Daniels type of backup, which would be preferable to Mark Sanchez, IMO. But I also think it's worthwhile to draft a guy late to compete with Sorensen.

Looking for a successor to Rivers doesn't make a lot of sense right now. Rookies are signed to five-year deals, and Rivers probably has five years left. If we draft somebody now, he'll be a free agent by the time Rivers retires anyway.

 

[Tau837]

I'd be looking for a successor to Whitehurst, not Rivers. I think Brad Sorensen could easily became a Chase Daniels type of backup, which would be preferable to Mark Sanchez, IMO. But I also think it's worthwhile to draft a guy late to compete with Sorensen.

Looking for a successor to Rivers doesn't make a lot of sense right now. Rookies are signed to five-year deals, and Rivers probably has five years left. If we draft somebody now, he'll be a free agent by the time Rivers retires anyway.

Do you think it makes sense to draft a QB in the 4th round? If not, what round would you think it makes sense?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I'd be looking for a successor to Whitehurst, not Rivers. I think Brad Sorensen could easily became a Chase Daniels type of backup, which would be preferable to Mark Sanchez, IMO. But I also think it's worthwhile to draft a guy late to compete with Sorensen.

Looking for a successor to Rivers doesn't make a lot of sense right now. Rookies are signed to five-year deals, and Rivers probably has five years left. If we draft somebody now, he'll be a free agent by the time Rivers retires anyway.

Do you think it makes sense to draft a QB in the 4th round? If not, what round would you think it makes sense?

I doubt I'd draft a guy in the fourth round if everyone (including me) has him graded as a fourth-rounder. If a second-rounder falls that far, then sure.

But if nobody falls and I have to draft a guy where he's generally expected to go, I'd probably rather wait till the last couple rounds.

 

[BoltBacker]

Are you happy with that hit rate? Are you generally happy to just throw away 4th round picks? I'm not. In recent years, the Chargers drafted Ladarius Green, Shaun Phillips, and Darren Sproles in the 4th round.

Well, the Chargers have also used 4th rounders on Tyronne Green and Gartrell Johnson so it just depends on which direction you want to cherry pick imo.

We could have a similar exercise with QB's and their job performance starting at age 32 and ending at age 37(since it seems everyone thinks Rivers has five more years in him). He'll either get better, stay the same, or regress. My bet is 32yo QB's regress over that time frame. What's the hit rate on that?

 

[Tau837]

Are you happy with that hit rate? Are you generally happy to just throw away 4th round picks? I'm not. In recent years, the Chargers drafted Ladarius Green, Shaun Phillips, and Darren Sproles in the 4th round.

Well, the Chargers have also used 4th rounders on Tyronne Green and Gartrell Johnson so it just depends on which direction you want to cherry pick imo.

We could have a similar exercise with QB's and their job performance starting at age 32 and ending at age 37(since it seems everyone thinks Rivers has five more years in him). He'll either get better, stay the same, or regress. My bet is 32yo QB's regress over that time frame. What's the hit rate on that?

I disagree. 2/145 is a much worse hit rate than the Chargers have had with 4th round picks over the past 10 years, 20 years, etc. And I suspect the same is true if you go beyond the Chargers and look at the leaguewide hit rate in the 4th round. it's not cherrypicking.

And your 32 year old QB analogy is off base. If you limited it to QBs who have performed as well as Rivers has through age 32, I think you'd find a very good success rate for their next 3-5 years. But if you want to do the study, I'd be interested to see it. I'd be willing to bet money right now that it's a hit rate far higher than 2/145.

 

[Tau837]

I'd be comfortable using a 3rd or 4th on the right QB. We don't want to the be Cardinals who had all the right pieces, BUT a QB 3 years from now.

The odds of finding the "right QB" in the 4th round are later are horrible and much worse than finding a contributor at another position. But the Chargers have too many needs to be used a pick in the first 3 rounds on a QB. So this is not the year to draft one.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Are you happy with that hit rate? Are you generally happy to just throw away 4th round picks? I'm not. In recent years, the Chargers drafted Ladarius Green, Shaun Phillips, and Darren Sproles in the 4th round.

Well, the Chargers have also used 4th rounders on Tyronne Green and Gartrell Johnson so it just depends on which direction you want to cherry pick imo.We could have a similar exercise with QB's and their job performance starting at age 32 and ending at age 37(since it seems everyone thinks Rivers has five more years in him). He'll either get better, stay the same, or regress. My bet is 32yo QB's regress over that time frame. What's the hit rate on that?

I disagree. 2/145 is a much worse hit rate than the Chargers have had with 4th round picks over the past 10 years, 20 years, etc. And I suspect the same is true if you go beyond the Chargers and look at the leaguewide hit rate in the 4th round. it's not cherrypicking.

And your 32 year old QB analogy is off base. If you limited it to QBs who have performed as well as Rivers has through age 32, I think you'd find a very good success rate for their next 3-5 years. But if you want to do the study, I'd be interested to see it. I'd be willing to bet money right now that it's a hit rate far higher than 2/145.

I tend to agree with your overall point - I hope the Bolts use their picks elsewhere in the upcoming draft, unless there is significant value in making the pick (a projected 2nd rounder is there for Telesco in the 5th).

But I think your 2/145 hit rate is way off. Lots of others names on that list provided a lot of value from where they were selected, either as average starters or valuable backups. Hell, look at how valuable the Whitehurst pick has been since the Chargers spent a 3rd rounder on him.

 

[Tau837]

Are you happy with that hit rate? Are you generally happy to just throw away 4th round picks? I'm not. In recent years, the Chargers drafted Ladarius Green, Shaun Phillips, and Darren Sproles in the 4th round.

Well, the Chargers have also used 4th rounders on Tyronne Green and Gartrell Johnson so it just depends on which direction you want to cherry pick imo.We could have a similar exercise with QB's and their job performance starting at age 32 and ending at age 37(since it seems everyone thinks Rivers has five more years in him). He'll either get better, stay the same, or regress. My bet is 32yo QB's regress over that time frame. What's the hit rate on that?

I disagree. 2/145 is a much worse hit rate than the Chargers have had with 4th round picks over the past 10 years, 20 years, etc. And I suspect the same is true if you go beyond the Chargers and look at the leaguewide hit rate in the 4th round. it's not cherrypicking.

And your 32 year old QB analogy is off base. If you limited it to QBs who have performed as well as Rivers has through age 32, I think you'd find a very good success rate for their next 3-5 years. But if you want to do the study, I'd be interested to see it. I'd be willing to bet money right now that it's a hit rate far higher than 2/145.

I tend to agree with your overall point - I hope the Bolts use their picks elsewhere in the upcoming draft, unless there is significant value in making the pick (a projected 2nd rounder is there for Telesco in the 5th).

But I think your 2/145 hit rate is way off. Lots of others names on that list provided a lot of value from where they were selected, either as average starters or valuable backups. Hell, look at how valuable the Whitehurst pick has been since the Chargers spent a 3rd rounder on him.

Please name those besides Brady and Hasselbeck that you feel were average starters or valuable backups.

Edit: Two things.

First, generally speaking, players drafted in the 4th round and later at positions other than QB are often able to contribute on special teams. That seems to rarely happen with QBs, other than perhaps holding for extra points. But drafting a QB in the 4th round or later means he won't be active on gamedays anyway for the foreseeable future, so there wouldn't even be that minor contribution.

Second, without doing a lot of analysis, I'd estimate that at least 10% of all players drafted in the 4th round and later make a positive contribution. And I think that's probably very conservative and could be much higher. So at minimum, we need 14+ of the QBs on that list to have been able to make a positive contribution that was worthy of their draft picks just to break even with the value at other positions.

I mentioned earlier that there are some guys who were solid stopgaps for a while, like Bulger and Orton. Are there 10+ other guys?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I mentioned earlier that there are some guys who were solid stopgaps for a while, like Bulger and Orton. Are there 10+ other guys?

Bulger and Orton were decent starters for a while.

Lots of players on that list spent a few years in the league as backups. Spending a few years in the league is all you can expect from a late-round pick for the most part, and sitting on the bench as the backup QB is often worth more, IMO, than contributing as a starter on special teams.

 

[Tau837]

I mentioned earlier that there are some guys who were solid stopgaps for a while, like Bulger and Orton. Are there 10+ other guys?

Bulger and Orton were decent starters for a while.

Lots of players on that list spent a few years in the league as backups. Spending a few years in the league is all you can expect from a late-round pick for the most part, and sitting on the bench as the backup QB is often worth more, IMO, than contributing as a starter on special teams.

If the choice is between a late drafted QB who will not be active on gamedays for at least a season or two or a reasonably low priced veteran... and if that late drafted QB has a very minimal chance of ever being a guy you actually want to start for your team other than in emergency situations... why would you say that is more valuable that drafting other positions who have a higher chance of making the active roster, with higher likelihood of starting (whether sooner or later) and reasonably high likelihood of contributing on special teams in the worst case?

As for Orton and Bulger, fine, let's concede them. Okay, now we're up to 4/145. Can we get to 15-30 guys who would make a valuable enough contribution to match other position odds (assuming 10-20% range for them to succeed)?

Some of you are opposing my viewpoint without really explaining why in detail or giving me any counterexamples to my view of those 145 QBs.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I mentioned earlier that there are some guys who were solid stopgaps for a while, like Bulger and Orton. Are there 10+ other guys?

Bulger and Orton were decent starters for a while.

Lots of players on that list spent a few years in the league as backups. Spending a few years in the league is all you can expect from a late-round pick for the most part, and sitting on the bench as the backup QB is often worth more, IMO, than contributing as a starter on special teams.

If the choice is between a late drafted QB who will not be active on gamedays for at least a season or two or a reasonably low priced veteran... and if that late drafted QB has a very minimal chance of ever being a guy you actually want to start for your team other than in emergency situations... why would you say that is more valuable that drafting other positions who have a higher chance of making the active roster, with higher likelihood of starting (whether sooner or later) and reasonably high likelihood of contributing on special teams in the worst case?

As for Orton and Bulger, fine, let's concede them. Okay, now we're up to 4/145. Can we get to 15-30 guys who would make a valuable enough contribution to match other position odds (assuming 10-20% range for them to succeed)?

Some of you are opposing my viewpoint without really explaining why in detail or giving me any counterexamples to my view of those 145 QBs.

Backup QBs are active every Sunday. It's important to have a #2 guy who the team feels is good enough to come in and keep the train going.

There are LOTS of guys on that list who would be considered very good #2s. There is value in that.

 

[tommyGunZ]

2013 4 Matt Barkley2013 4 Ryan Nassib

2012 4 Kirk Cousins

2005 4 Kyle Orton

2003 4 Seneca Wallace

2002 4 David Garrard

2001 4 Chris Weinke

2001 4 Sage Rosenfels

1999 4 Aaron Brooks

1997 4 Danny Wuerffel

1996 4 Danny Kanell

1995 4 Rob Johnson

2001 5 A.J. Feeley

2005 6 Derek Anderson

2000 6 Marc Bulger

2000 6 Tom Brady

1998 6 Matt Hasselbeck

2008 7 Matt Flynn

2007 7 Tyler Thigpen

2005 7 Matt Cassel

2005 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick

1994 7 Gus Frerotte

Just going off memory, all these guys seem to have provided great value for where they were picked.

 

[tommyGunZ]

2013 4 Matt Barkley2013 4 Ryan Nassib

2012 4 Kirk Cousins

2005 4 Kyle Orton

2003 4 Seneca Wallace

2002 4 David Garrard

2001 4 Chris Weinke

2001 4 Sage Rosenfels

1999 4 Aaron Brooks

1997 4 Danny Wuerffel

1996 4 Danny Kanell

1995 4 Rob Johnson

2001 5 A.J. Feeley

2005 6 Derek Anderson

2000 6 Marc Bulger

2000 6 Tom Brady

1998 6 Matt Hasselbeck

2008 7 Matt Flynn

2007 7 Tyler Thigpen

2005 7 Matt Cassel

2005 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick

1994 7 Gus Frerotte

Just going off memory, all these guys seem to have provided value for where they were picked.

 

[Tau837]

I mentioned earlier that there are some guys who were solid stopgaps for a while, like Bulger and Orton. Are there 10+ other guys?

Bulger and Orton were decent starters for a while.

Lots of players on that list spent a few years in the league as backups. Spending a few years in the league is all you can expect from a late-round pick for the most part, and sitting on the bench as the backup QB is often worth more, IMO, than contributing as a starter on special teams.

If the choice is between a late drafted QB who will not be active on gamedays for at least a season or two or a reasonably low priced veteran... and if that late drafted QB has a very minimal chance of ever being a guy you actually want to start for your team other than in emergency situations... why would you say that is more valuable that drafting other positions who have a higher chance of making the active roster, with higher likelihood of starting (whether sooner or later) and reasonably high likelihood of contributing on special teams in the worst case?

As for Orton and Bulger, fine, let's concede them. Okay, now we're up to 4/145. Can we get to 15-30 guys who would make a valuable enough contribution to match other position odds (assuming 10-20% range for them to succeed)?

Some of you are opposing my viewpoint without really explaining why in detail or giving me any counterexamples to my view of those 145 QBs.

Backup QBs are active every Sunday. It's important to have a #2 guy who the team feels is good enough to come in and keep the train going.

There are LOTS of guys on that list who would be considered very good #2s. There is value in that.

Of course backup QBs are active every Sunday. But are you saying you envision that the Chargers would draft a QB in the 4th round of the draft (or later) and make him the #2 QB in his first season? That sounds like a recipe for a weak #2 QB.

ETA: My post you quoted made the assumption that drafting a 4th round (or later) QB this year meant Whitehurst or another inexpensive veteran as the #2, while "grooming" the drafted QB for the future, thus making him inactive on game days.

 

[Tau837]

2013 4 Matt Barkley2013 4 Ryan Nassib

2012 4 Kirk Cousins

2005 4 Kyle Orton

2003 4 Seneca Wallace

2002 4 David Garrard

2001 4 Chris Weinke

2001 4 Sage Rosenfels

1999 4 Aaron Brooks

1997 4 Danny Wuerffel

1996 4 Danny Kanell

1995 4 Rob Johnson

2001 5 A.J. Feeley

2005 6 Derek Anderson

2000 6 Marc Bulger

2000 6 Tom Brady

1998 6 Matt Hasselbeck

2008 7 Matt Flynn

2007 7 Tyler Thigpen

2005 7 Matt Cassel

2005 7 Ryan Fitzpatrick

1994 7 Gus Frerotte

Just going off memory, all these guys seem to have provided great value for where they were picked.

OK, so you've identified 22/145. That's just over 15%. I'd argue that's still probably a lower success rate than at many/most other positions.

I'd also disagree that it would be a good idea to have some of these guys (or their 2014 draft equivalents) as the #2 QB, unless you simply make the assumption that they will never have to play (admittedly, a pretty good assumption with Rivers at #1). I realize you said you were going off memory, but consider:

Kanell - 10-13-1 as starter, career 63.2 passer rating

Wuerffel - 4-6 as starter, career 56.4 passer rating

Weinke - 2-18 as starter, career 62.2 passer rating

Barkley - only attempted 44 passes in this, his rookie season, and he posted a 44.6 passer rating; it's too early to pass judgment, but why would he be on the list?

Nassib - similar to Barkley, too early to judge... he hasn't even attempted a pass, how could he deserve to be on the good value list?

And so it goes... those were the ones that jumped out at me the most.

 

[Tau837]

One more thing on this. I agree at some point the Chargers should consider drafting their QB of the future, their eventual replacement for Rivers. I think now is not the right time for these reasons:

1. Rivers just had an outstanding season, and it seems reasonable to believe that he should and will retire as a Charger, meaning he will likely play another 5+ seasons. Anything can happen, but he just had a great season, he has never had off field issues, he has never missed a start, and he is a community guy and the face of the franchise.

2. If you accept #1, drafting a rookie now doesn't make sense, because even if the Chargers draft a good one, the timing won't be right to play him enough in advance of his rookie contract expiring to know he is good enough to commit to him.

IMO a team that has an early 30s QB they will commit to for several more years should have an inexpensive veteran #2 QB, like the Bears had this year in McCown. Look at the Packers, they didn't have it, so they were forced to go out and get one in Flynn.

The only reason to draft another rookie to groom beyond Sorensen is if the team is not ready to accept #1 above. Rivers' contract is set to expire after the 2015 season. If the team felt there was a strong reason to move on from him at that time or sooner AND if the team feels that Sorensen cannot be groomed into his replacement, then it makes sense to draft a rookie QB. But:

1. I don't see any reason for the team to have that stance.

2. If they did have that stance, they should use a first or second round pick to increase the odds that they actually get someone who can capably step in for Rivers after he is gone.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

As I said before, I wouldn't be drafting a successor to Rivers. I'd be drafting a successor to Whitehurst. I'm on a tablet now, so I'm not going to cut and paste from your list, but it looks to me like maybe a third of the players on the list are as good or better than Whitehurst. That seems like a perfectly decent hit rate.

 

[Tau837]

As I said before, I wouldn't be drafting a successor to Rivers. I'd be drafting a successor to Whitehurst. I'm on a tablet now, so I'm not going to cut and paste from your list, but it looks to me like maybe a third of the players on the list are as good or better than Whitehurst. That seems like a perfectly decent hit rate.

OK, perhaps it's time to agree to disagree. But one last question: you think one third of those players (or their 2014 draft equivalent) were better than Whitehurst in their rookie season? So you'd be comfortable with one third of the equivalents as the #2 QB in 2014?

 

[BoltBacker]

I'd be comfortable using a 3rd or 4th on the right QB. We don't want to the be Cardinals who had all the right pieces, BUT a QB 3 years from now.

I agree.

It's not that I'm hell bent on taking a QB in the 4th round, but if the right one falls to the 4th they should take him. In other threads I've already said this particular team could probably get starting OLmen in rounds 1&2, and starting CB's in rounds 3&4 based not only on SD's needs but the depth of those positions in the draft. Although there is a great deal of speculation swirling around some veteran CB's that may be released due to salary and I would hope SD would consider someone as a short term stop gap to stop the bleeding in the secondary.

Ideally, if neither Kouandjio or Lewan(both should be gone) are available they'd be able to trade down and get more picks in the middle of the draft because they have so many areas of need.

 

[BoltBacker]

Rivers' contract is set to expire after the 2015 season. If the team felt there was a strong reason to move on from him at that time or sooner AND if the team feels that Sorensen cannot be groomed into his replacement, then it makes sense to draft a rookie QB. But:

1. I don't see any reason for the team to have that stance.

2. If they did have that stance, they should use a first or second round pick to increase the odds that they actually get someone who can capably step in for Rivers after he is gone.

1. But if he's only under contract for 2 more years than you can agree all this talk about him playing 5+ years is kind of moot, no? Sure they could franchise him a year(assuming he's 2013 moving forward and not 2012/2011) for but other than it would just be about contract negotiations.

2. I have a feeling if you looked at all the QB's taken round 2 or later you're going to a whole lot of misses as well. There are only 32 starting gigs in the NFL. Heck, if you look at QB's taken outside the top 10 in the first round you'll see a pretty low "hit" percentage. People are quick to forget that Weeden was taken 22nd overall, Gabbert at 10th overall, Ponder 12 overall, Tebow 25th overall, Sanchez 5th overall, and Freeman 17th overall. Maybe you should never draft a QB unless you have the 1st pick overall?

I'd much rather have a sure starter in the 1st/2nd rounds at other positions, one of the guys listed above for pennies on the dollar as one backup, and a Matt Barkley type that plummets in the draft than either draft a QB in the 1st or have Whitehurst/Sorensen as my backups in the event Rivers went down. I disagree with some in the thread in that I am not a believer in taking a QB all the way down in the 6th/7th round. IMO those picks are best used on very talented guys that fell due to injury/character/motivation issues like a Burfict/Blount type of guy. If you have to part with him it didn't really cost you much of anything anyway.

 

[tdmonkeys]

Rivers' contract is set to expire after the 2015 season. If the team felt there was a strong reason to move on from him at that time or sooner AND if the team feels that Sorensen cannot be groomed into his replacement, then it makes sense to draft a rookie QB. But:

1. I don't see any reason for the team to have that stance.

2. If they did have that stance, they should use a first or second round pick to increase the odds that they actually get someone who can capably step in for Rivers after he is gone.

1. But if he's only under contract for 2 more years than you can agree all this talk about him playing 5+ years is kind of moot, no? Sure they could franchise him a year(assuming he's 2013 moving forward and not 2012/2011) for but other than it would just be about contract negotiations.

2. I have a feeling if you looked at all the QB's taken round 2 or later you're going to a whole lot of misses as well. There are only 32 starting gigs in the NFL. Heck, if you look at QB's taken outside the top 10 in the first round you'll see a pretty low "hit" percentage. People are quick to forget that Weeden was taken 22nd overall, Gabbert at 10th overall, Ponder 12 overall, Tebow 25th overall, Sanchez 5th overall, and Freeman 17th overall. Maybe you should never draft a QB unless you have the 1st pick overall?

I'd much rather have a sure starter in the 1st/2nd rounds at other positions, one of the guys listed above for pennies on the dollar as one backup, and a Matt Barkley type that plummets in the draft than either draft a QB in the 1st or have Whitehurst/Sorensen as my backups in the even Rivers went down. I disagree with some in the thread in that I am not a believer in taking a QB all the way down in the 6th/7th round. IMO those picks are best used on very talented guys that fell due to injury/character/motivation issues like a Burfict/Blount type of guy. If you have to part with him it didn't really cost you much of anything anyway.

As for #1, his contract length matters very little IMO because I would be shocked if he doesn't retire a Charger if he continues to play like he did this year.