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I didn't mind when Holliday got hurt during the 2011 Series. I was too worried he would gak a ball hit right at him. Watching Holliday play left makes me want to apologize for all the trouble I gave Lonnie Smith from the Busch II bleachers.
Agreed. Also, there's more than one way to throw 98, giving the hitters different looks even if the radar gun sees it the same. Wacha's vertical motion makes it tough to match the plane of the pitch with the bat (and makes his changeup a lot more effective). Martinez drops his arm some, which make it look like it's going to hit a righty hitter in the ribs before it works its way to the plate. Rosenthal's release is like a catcher's, making him difficult to time even if he tells you he's throwing high cheese before he winds up.
I'm scared that whatever spell Wacha has had on hitters over the last month will wear off by Thursday. He seems like the real deal, but he's been defying logic for while now.
This is where I shoehorn in my theory that Puig is as close to a real-life Pedro Cerrano as we've ever had: Cuban right fielder who fled his home country to pursue his dream, bizarre behavior that polarizes teammates, straight ball he hits very much, bats are afraid of curve ball.
The Twins' park normalized OPS was better than KC, Yankees, White Sox and Houston (AL only)
1) Re: 8 vs 9, I'm in no way stating as cold truth that STL's offense is better, I'm merely interested in trying to pinpoint, best we can, how much better one or the other is, given the unique set of circumstances that is the DH rule. The Napoli vs. Ortiz argument is interesting, in that Ortiz really doesn't have much of a sample size to go off in terms of his defense. I mean we all know he's bad, but how bad?How much does Boston's OPS drop when Ortiz or Napoli is replaced by a pitcher?
The bottom line of the non-pitcher stats is that boston is a superior offense when batting 8 or 9. I'm not sure why you continue to fight this but its simply a fact.
Re: fastball reliance, a big part of that has to be because of Miller, who is basically a one-pitch pitcher, and he's not in their post-season rotation.
This simply isn't true.
The only Cardinals starter with sub 60% fastball rate is Wainright (sinkerballer). Lynn throws more FB's than Miller, and Kelly and Wacha are just a few percent behind Miller.
The VAST majority of the bullpen relies heavily on the heat as well.. most round as much if not more than Miller.
I also don't think Boston's advantage on the basepaths is going to have that big of an effect overall, it just isn't as big a part of the game.
Regarding stolen bases, I agree they may cut back a little but you're still talking about a team who stole well over 100 bases a year. If you don't think Ellsbury and/or victorino are going to swipe a bag or three this series.... likely in key spots... I think you're fooling yourself.
And again, you're completely ignoring the MAIN impact of team speed... and that's stretching singles into doubles, and having very fast 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home times. As stated previously, when paired with STLs horrible range in the OF, it's a bit silly to just brush it off as not a big part of the game
I think they're going to win this series simply because they hit righties very well, they have a great pen, and no jobbers in their rotation (Dempster, wait). None of Boston's pitchers are as good as Wainwright, but they're all a helluva lot better than "Joe Kelly."
I agree that Cards having a ton of righties hurts... as does their reliance on the fastball. Also agree that the Cards 1/2 on their typical day are on par with Boston's 1/2 on their best days.... starting rotation is definitely a significant plus for the Cards.
Another small factor, playing in Fenway should help disguise Holliday's defensive deficiencies some. At the same time, Boston isn't going to be able to hide Gomes in LF in Busch if they keep playing him over Nava, for God-know-what reason.
The problem with Fenway in Left is there isn't much ground to cover but that wall has made many a visiting LF look stupid... particularly NL guys who don't see it a dozen times a year.
I cant find individual stolen base data, but I would just about guarantee there is some player(s) that have had a greater than 75% success rate against Molina.Good Posting Judge said:
It isn't so much that Molina throws runners out, but that teams don't even bother trying anymore. Opponents only stole 26 bases on Molina all season. I'm sure you will be able to find someone who was 2-for-2 stealing on Molina, but WGAF?
This. The other part of it that hasn't been stated and others may not realize is that Molina doesn't just have an impact on stolen bases. He has a huge impact on the leads that runners will take because of his ability to pick off a runner that takes too big a lead or secondary lead. This helps reduce runners advancing that extra base on hits into the outfield.
I'm not a huge fan of Farrell's decision so far this playoffs but you are an idiot if you think Papi should sit the 3 games in St. LouisBruce Dickinson said:
At DH, Ortiz is clearly the better option than Napoli.
Correct. SB percentage is extremely misleading, because when a guy gains a reputation for being good at throwing out baserunners, people tend to run less. And the ones who do run are usually only the most elite basestealers. So if your CS% drops from 45% to 30%, it might appear you got a lot worse. But if you're throwing out 30% of the best base stealers in the league, that's pretty awesome.
Because the games are not played on a spreadsheet and yours might need updating even if it was because in his last 32 games at 1B, he has a total of 1 error which was back in 2009. Ortiz is their best hitter and has a history of postseason clutch performances, he is going to play at least 2 games in St. Louis and Farrell would be run out of town if Papi played any less.
Well, there's the RL platoon advantage against the Cardinals' right handed rotation.
It goes without saying that Boston has a bunch of bandwagon fans. Pats fans tripled after the 2001 season.
That's the strongest pro-Ortiz argument, IMO. If you're bringing Ortiz off the bench to pinch-hit, it's probably in an important enough situation for the Cardinals to bring in Siegrist or Choate to face him.
Boston fans are known to be forgiving of defensive mistakes late in games at 1B as long as the guy is a good hitter.
I still lament 1995, 2001, and 2004 even after 09. Tough losses are still tough, even if good stuff happens later. Maybe lament is a strong word, but it's still frustrating for different reasons. In 95, I wanted Mattingly to win. In 01, there was the 9/11 connection to NYC and the end of the run with that core of guys. And 04 saw the end of the curse. 2009 was a ton of fun and I was there for every playoff game, but it won't get Donnie Baseball a ring or bring back the curse. 2004 was insane for a Sox fan, but there are plenty of folks who didn't live to see that who thought 86 was their chance, plenty of players on the 86 team that never got a chance for redemption, etc. I can see it.
Ortiz is hitting .200 this postseason.
'03 was the worst for me. In '86, we played a team that won nearly a hundred games. In '03, we -- IMO -- were just a better club than the Yanks, and we hadn't been that in a long, long time. It's why '99 is a blip on the screen. The Yanks were better that year, no question. But '03 ? Oh, that hurt.I still lament 1995, 2001, and 2004 even after 09. Tough losses are still tough, even if good stuff happens later. Maybe lament is a strong word, but it's still frustrating for different reasons. In 95, I wanted Mattingly to win. In 01, there was the 9/11 connection to NYC and the end of the run with that core of guys. And 04 saw the end of the curse. 2009 was a ton of fun and I was there for every playoff game, but it won't get Donnie Baseball a ring or bring back the curse. 2004 was insane for a Sox fan, but there are plenty of folks who didn't live to see that who thought 86 was their chance, plenty of players on the 86 team that never got a chance for redemption, etc. I can see it.
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I argued that the team speed combined with the lead-pants outfield of STL was going to result in extra bases. I never stated that trumped their on ability to get on base a ton (which I also mentioned). Sox baserunning strengths are in stolen bases (Top SBR in MLB), and to a lesser degree stretching out 1st-3rd and 2nd-Home (aka HAR) which they are good but not great at (13th in MLB). They don't even try to take extra bases on balls on the ground (which would be balls hit to STL's only + Defensive players).
How many AB's vs LHP has he had?Ortiz is hitting .200 this postseason.
IMO Games 3 and 4 could be managed LaRussa style to grind out wins. If Kelly/Lynn have the game in the 6th inning by Ortiz's third plate appearance, Matheny can bring in Choate to pitch to Papi and possibly finish the sixth. Then if the RH flamethrowers can get through a lap, Siegrist can come in for Ortiz's fourth PA, and hopefully the team is in a position for Rosenthal to pitch the ninth.This approach would put a lot of pressure on Wainwright to pitch deep into Game 5, but it could work.
Take it up with moops.How many AB's vs LHP has he had? How many AB's vs LHP will he have against the Cards?Ortiz is hitting .200 this postseason.
His AVG drops 80 points and OPS drops 360pts against LHP this season.
He's the one who said .214 was bad.There's no way you wrote that cut-and-paste job. The author of this post doesn't understand what the author of that other one was saying.I argued that the team speed combined with the lead-pants outfield of STL was going to result in extra bases. I never stated that trumped their on ability to get on base a ton (which I also mentioned). Sox baserunning strengths are in stolen bases (Top SBR in MLB), and to a lesser degree stretching out 1st-3rd and 2nd-Home (aka HAR) which they are good but not great at (13th in MLB). They don't even try to take extra bases on balls on the ground (which would be balls hit to STL's only + Defensive players).
Bottom line, the situations BOS likes to take extra bases happens to mesh perfectly with the largest weakness in STLs defense. If you don't think that will be a factor at some point, possibly deciding a game or two, then we'll just have to agree to disagree. Which is fine.
I'm not saying this is the be all end all... I pointed this stuff out as one of many factors where Boston could have an advantage over the Cardinals.
I wrote both posts and have a perfectly clear understanding of what Im saying in both.There's no way you wrote that cut-and-paste job. The author of this post doesn't understand what the author of that other one was saying.I argued that the team speed combined with the lead-pants outfield of STL was going to result in extra bases. I never stated that trumped their on ability to get on base a ton (which I also mentioned). Sox baserunning strengths are in stolen bases (Top SBR in MLB), and to a lesser degree stretching out 1st-3rd and 2nd-Home (aka HAR) which they are good but not great at (13th in MLB). They don't even try to take extra bases on balls on the ground (which would be balls hit to STL's only + Defensive players).
Bottom line, the situations BOS likes to take extra bases happens to mesh perfectly with the largest weakness in STLs defense. If you don't think that will be a factor at some point, possibly deciding a game or two, then we'll just have to agree to disagree. Which is fine.
I'm not saying this is the be all end all... I pointed this stuff out as one of many factors where Boston could have an advantage over the Cardinals.
Sorry juggling a bunch of crap and mistakenly thought your post was tied into the "ortiz / napoli" debate. Skimmed the moops post apparently. My bad on that one.Take it up with moops.How many AB's vs LHP has he had? How many AB's vs LHP will he have against the Cards?Ortiz is hitting .200 this postseason.
His AVG drops 80 points and OPS drops 360pts against LHP this season.
86's misery has a special place in my heart but the 03 loss & 2010 Bruins loss to the Flyers were cold hard kick in the nuts painrockaction said:'03 was the worst for me. In '86, we played a team that won nearly a hundred games. In '03, we -- IMO -- were just a better club than the Yanks, and we hadn't been that in a long, long time. It's why '99 is a blip on the screen. The Yanks were better that year, no question. But '03 ? Oh, that hurt.I still lament 1995, 2001, and 2004 even after 09. Tough losses are still tough, even if good stuff happens later. Maybe lament is a strong word, but it's still frustrating for different reasons. In 95, I wanted Mattingly to win. In 01, there was the 9/11 connection to NYC and the end of the run with that core of guys. And 04 saw the end of the curse. 2009 was a ton of fun and I was there for every playoff game, but it won't get Donnie Baseball a ring or bring back the curse. 2004 was insane for a Sox fan, but there are plenty of folks who didn't live to see that who thought 86 was their chance, plenty of players on the 86 team that never got a chance for redemption, etc. I can see it.
He was a terrible hitter all year and didn't hit a pretty big grand slam in the ALCS.Bruce Dickinson said:Take it up with moops.[icon] said:How many AB's vs LHP has he had? How many AB's vs LHP will he have against the Cards?Ortiz is hitting .200 this postseason.
His AVG drops 80 points and OPS drops 360pts against LHP this season.
went sox in 6The apt comparison actually involves Don Baylor, but it's game day and there's no need to bring up 1986 again.He was a terrible hitter all year and didn't hit a pretty big grand slam in the ALCS.If you want to compare Buckner and Ortiz, go for it.Bruce Dickinson said:Take it up with moops.[icon] said:How many AB's vs LHP has he had? How many AB's vs LHP will he have against the Cards?Ortiz is hitting .200 this postseason.
His AVG drops 80 points and OPS drops 360pts against LHP this season.
It's a managerial award that's been given to Dusty Baker twice and Bobby Cox eight times. Not sure how much anyone should appeal to its authority.
This was what I was thinking. We lose at least one of those guys, and they're our 4-5 guys.
Thankfully that is only a factor in 40% of the games
