*** Official 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread *** / Now 2015 too (1 Viewer)

[TheIronSheik]

Dr. Jeff Masters update:

INVEST 98L and ‘EX INVEST 97L’

While NHC dropped 97L early yesterday – it added INVEST 98L earlier this morning. INVEST 98L in the NW GOM originated at the ‘tail end’ of a very strong mid-level Dry Line that surged south/southwest from the SE US across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) 2 days ago – triggering a line of very strong T-storms along and ahead of it. While the dry line boundary has begun to fade away (though relatively dry air continues to dominate much of the GOM) a small surface circulation has formed in the NW GOM, centered about 200NM east of Corpus Christi, TX. An area of convection, with some isolated deep convection, is near and to the North and Northeast of the Low itself. The convection and surface circulation is quasi-stationary, and with wind shear of 30Kts over most of the system, significant development is unlikely for at least the next 24 hours. The first run of specialized tropical cyclone models (12Z cycle) are in remarkably good agreement on forecasting the system to move slowly westward into south Texas in 48-72 hours. With a generally anti-cyclonic flow aloft, and some of the warmest SST’s seen in years in this part of the GOM, and falloff in wind shear to under 15Kts could allow this small disturbance to spin-up prior to moving inland.

' EX INVEST 97L' STILL WORTH WATCHING’

While yesterday’s Global model runs had forecast what was 97L to develop into a significant cyclone, the last few runs have completely backed away on this. However, most of the global models now forecast this elongated wave near the eastern CARIB to move across the CARIB towards the Yucatan over the weekend, with some models showing a small cyclone formation in the southern GOM next week.

There has been a dramatic increase in moisture both with the westbound wave and from the deep (Equatorial) tropics in South America (SOAMER) that has been surging northward ahead of the wave for over 24 hours. Though wind shear is over 30Kts over much of the eastern CARIB (and will remain relatively high for the next few days) there is a somewhat anti-cyclonic flow developing between a small upper air Low/TROF in the west central CARIB and the approaching tropical wave in the far eastern CARIB. This anti-cyclonic curvature of the high level wind field may develop further and move westward as the tropical wave traverses the CARIB over the next few days – and shear speeds may drop off during the weekend. Clearly a system worth monitoring over the coming days.

STRONG DISTURBANCE STILL WESTBOUND OVER AFRICA

One of the season's strongest ‘Cape Verde’ disturbances is emerging off the West African coast, with virtually all global models forecasting the system to gradually intensify over the weekend as it heads West/Northwest. This strong wave with a cyclonic circulation system has a long history since it developed in the highlands of east-central Africa last weekend and has maintained a low-mid level circulation and significant convection as it crossed north Africa. The most reliable models (especially the GFS) have consistently shown this system developing into a strong cyclone early next week – but also show the system turning Northwestward and eventually northward as it approaches the central Atlantic. The latest (00Z) model run has shown this recurvature occurring a bit further west than earlier runs - but the ‘theme’ of ultimately turning this system out to sea before it can impact the CARIB or US remains unchanged.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Wind shear is doing a number on 98L. But it's still got convection firing up.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looks like the models are sending this thing more south into the Texas/Mexico border.

 

[TheIronSheik]

On 98L:

The Hurricane Hunters investigated low pressure in the Western Gulf of Mexico east of Padre Island. They found that this system is not strong enough to be classified as a depression at this point. Regardless, low pressure has formed and will need to be further monitored. The system has not strengthened due to dry air and shear. However, this could change with a low chance of the system becoming a depression as it nears the Lower Texas Coast.

 

[TheIronSheik]

People in southern Texas, BE ALERT!

Models are coming back and, for the most part, are all in agreement that this system will dump very heavy rains over coastal areas. This storm has the potential to stall out once coming ashore. Rain bands will be capable of dumping 2 to 3 inches. If these bands train over the same area and the slow moving system stalls at all, this could set up to be a very dangerous situation.

Currently, the models are showing areas receiving 3 to 5 inches, but this is not taking into account any stall. Anyone living in this area should keep an eye to the local weather.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Pretty sweet radar image of 98L trying to spin off the coast.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Also, there is some thought that the frontal boundary that was draped across the GOM and gave us 98L from the far west of it, could actually give us another spot to watch off the far right of it. Could see something move off the Yucatan this weekend and into the Gulf.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Steering for this system is still pretty weak. With this trough coming through, some models are hinting at this thing getting picked up by it and sliding up it to the northeast.

 

[TheIronSheik]

98L is close to moving onshore. But to the SE of 98L is that other piece of the frontal boundary that is starting to develop some spin. Wind shear is pretty high down there, so nothing expected, but this is an area should be watched. Otherwise, I'd say we are done with 98L and the focus will return back to 97L or 99L tomorrow. If not tomorrow, this weekend.

I'm hoping more for tomorrow because it's going to be a boring day at work tomorrow.

 

[3C's]

Did not see that coming.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Well that "huge" wave coming off of Africa sure fizzled out. That air is so dry coming into the Eastern Atlantic. Interesting to see how it emerges from the dry air.

98L is no more, but it hasn't moved inland like they had forecasted. It literally moved onto land and just stopped. It's actually wobbled back and forth a couple of radar loops. Wonder if it could get swept back up and taken back into the GOM. The artist formerly known as 97L looks like it's having trouble getting back together, too.

Today went from a possible great day in the Tropics to a totally meh day, literally, overnight. :(

 

[3C's]

Being along the coast I for one welcome quiet tropics.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Being along the coast I for one welcome quiet tropics.

It's strange, I've always loved tropical storms. Ike tempered my love for a little bit. But I'm drawn to them for some reason.

 

[3C's]

Being along the coast I for one welcome quiet tropics.

It's strange, I've always loved tropical storms. Ike tempered my love for a little bit. But I'm drawn to them for some reason.

I've had interest in cyclonic storms since i was a kid. After a few brushes with tropical storms/hurricanes I've seen enough. Floyd, Isabel, Gaston and most recently Irene. Irene left us without power for 9 days which is a major pain in the butt when you have a well and no way to pump water without power.

 

[TheIronSheik]

With Cristobal's transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world--an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don't expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Here's the latest update.

That wave coming off of Africa went from being a beast to not even being a blip on the 5 day development forecast.

 

[rustycolts]

Being along the coast I for one welcome quiet tropics.

Yea living about 50 miles from both the Gulf coast and the Atlantic coast I feel the same way.

 

[TheIronSheik]

No love for Dolly?

TD4 formed yesterday and turned into Dolly. The last time there was no tropical system in the GOM until Sept. 1st was 1963.

 

[3C's]

No love for Dolly?

TD4 formed yesterday and turned into Dolly. The last time there was no tropical system in the GOM until Sept. 1st was 1963.

Nope. A bit further north and I'd have been mildly interested.

 

[Gawain]

I'm actually watching Dolly. One of my main distribution centers is in Monterrey and whenever they get heavy rains, Mexican rail slows to a crawl.

Have you seen rain totals or projected bands for this Shiek?

 

[TheIronSheik]

I'm actually watching Dolly. One of my main distribution centers is in Monterrey and whenever they get heavy rains, Mexican rail slows to a crawl.

Have you seen rain totals or projected bands for this Shiek?

Models I've seen haven't been very reliable. The thought with Dolly was that it would move slowly over the Bay of Campeche and make landfall sometime tomorrow. But as of a couple of hours ago, it has started boogieing towards the coast and looks like it could make landfall this afternoon. The faster it makes landfall, the lower the totals, obviously, since the storm won't be lingering over the same spots for a long time. Heavy rain will still be the main threat, but the faster Dolly moves west, the better for everyone.

 

[Mjolnirs]

Dolly

 

[Gawain]

Bet this storm makes Horace Vandergelder peeved.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looking at the models for the next wave coming off of Africa, P27L. Something interesting shows up. P27L will most likely become Invest 90L and could very quickly become our next named storm of the season. The models show it becoming a storm and moving west. But in half the models, another wave, P29L, comes off the coast right behind it as a stronger storm.

Again, models at this stage aren't that reliable, but this is the busy time of the season, so nothing is out of the realm of possibility.

 

[3C's]

First disturbance is off Africa now and NHC sees it blowing up pretty quickly. GFS shows that one moving west right towards the Caribbean. And another disturbance right behind it.

 

[TheIronSheik]

First disturbance is off Africa now and NHC sees it blowing up pretty quickly. GFS shows that one moving west right towards the Caribbean. And another disturbance right behind it.

The dry air in the Atlantic this year is deadly. Look at it come off of Africa. Convection just gets crushed! Circulation is still there, which bodes well for formation down the line. 90L will have to survive the dry trek across the Atlantic that its predecessors had trouble with.

 

[3C's]

First disturbance is off Africa now and NHC sees it blowing up pretty quickly. GFS shows that one moving west right towards the Caribbean. And another disturbance right behind it.

The dry air in the Atlantic this year is deadly. Look at it come off of Africa. Convection just gets crushed! Circulation is still there, which bodes well for formation down the line. 90L will have to survive the dry trek across the Atlantic that its predecessors had trouble with.

Yeah, they've all been falling apart as they come off the coast. NHC seems to think this one will stay together and conditions further down the line will improve for formation.

 

[TheIronSheik]

First disturbance is off Africa now and NHC sees it blowing up pretty quickly. GFS shows that one moving west right towards the Caribbean. And another disturbance right behind it.

The dry air in the Atlantic this year is deadly. Look at it come off of Africa. Convection just gets crushed! Circulation is still there, which bodes well for formation down the line. 90L will have to survive the dry trek across the Atlantic that its predecessors had trouble with.

Yeah, they've all been falling apart as they come off the coast. NHC seems to think this one will stay together and conditions further down the line will improve for formation.

They thought that about the last wave, too. Although this one survived long enough to get an Invest. So, we'll see. The dry air is only supposed to get worse over the next couple of weeks. Could take the sting out of the peak time of the season.

 

[3C's]

Out on the other side is Norbert.

 

[TheIronSheik]

One odd thing is what is off the coast of GA right now. There is an area of disturbed weather that has just been meandering there. The NHC doesn't even mention it, but there are a couple of models that want to produce this thing into a depression and move up the coast. Other models have it fizzling out in 24 hours.

So what's odd about that? Well, the fact that the NHC doesn't even put it as a blip on their map. Yet the 7 day QPF rainfall seems to think there's going to be something happening out there. So while the consensus is that it's nothing by the NHC, the NWS seems to disagree that it will be something.

The UKMET 5 day forecast seems to think it could be something. And while the UKMET is one of the more reliable models, it was also the model that had Cristobal making landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border. So. There's that.

 

[TheIronSheik]

First disturbance is off Africa now and NHC sees it blowing up pretty quickly. GFS shows that one moving west right towards the Caribbean. And another disturbance right behind it.

The dry air in the Atlantic this year is deadly. Look at it come off of Africa. Convection just gets crushed! Circulation is still there, which bodes well for formation down the line. 90L will have to survive the dry trek across the Atlantic that its predecessors had trouble with.

Yeah, they've all been falling apart as they come off the coast. NHC seems to think this one will stay together and conditions further down the line will improve for formation.

They thought that about the last wave, too. Although this one survived long enough to get an Invest. So, we'll see. The dry air is only supposed to get worse over the next couple of weeks. Could take the sting out of the peak time of the season.

Dropped it down from 40% to 30% for development in the next 5 days. Lots of dry air out there.

 

[3C's]

Yeah, GFS seems to keep it going but looks like nothing. The one early next week starts out strong though.

 

[3C's]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

 

[3C's]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

And back to a mess today. Long range it looks like it will make TS eventually, maybe by Sunday. GFS ensemble has it pointed at OBX but looks like it will take a turn before getting close to the coast. Hope so.

 

[TheIronSheik]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

And back to a mess today. Long range it looks like it will make TS eventually, maybe by Sunday. GFS ensemble has it pointed at OBX but looks like it will take a turn before getting close to the coast. Hope so.

Again, until it becomes an actual storm, the models are extremely unreliable this far out.

 

[3C's]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

And back to a mess today. Long range it looks like it will make TS eventually, maybe by Sunday. GFS ensemble has it pointed at OBX but looks like it will take a turn before getting close to the coast. Hope so.

Again, until it becomes an actual storm, the models are extremely unreliable this far out.

I know. And the GFS past a few days is typically useless. Still interesting to watch the development (or lack thereof). Many models have it making TS strength by 60 hours so it seems it might get a name. Most don't see it doing much more than that.

 

[TheIronSheik]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

And back to a mess today. Long range it looks like it will make TS eventually, maybe by Sunday. GFS ensemble has it pointed at OBX but looks like it will take a turn before getting close to the coast. Hope so.

Again, until it becomes an actual storm, the models are extremely unreliable this far out.

I know. And the GFS past a few days is typically useless. Still interesting to watch the development (or lack thereof). Many models have it making TS strength by 60 hours so it seems it might get a name. Most don't see it doing much more than that.

Here's what it's got to contend with the next couple of days.

 

[3C's]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

And back to a mess today. Long range it looks like it will make TS eventually, maybe by Sunday. GFS ensemble has it pointed at OBX but looks like it will take a turn before getting close to the coast. Hope so.

Again, until it becomes an actual storm, the models are extremely unreliable this far out.

I know. And the GFS past a few days is typically useless. Still interesting to watch the development (or lack thereof). Many models have it making TS strength by 60 hours so it seems it might get a name. Most don't see it doing much more than that.

Here's what it's got to contend with the next couple of days.

Which will keep it from developing for, wait for it, ~48 hours.

A 5 day loop of SAL. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

 

[3C's]

Kinda cool I guess. They have a drone on the way out to 90L (I would assume, why else would they fly out there). http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/

 

[3C's]

One odd thing is what is off the coast of GA right now. There is an area of disturbed weather that has just been meandering there. The NHC doesn't even mention it, but there are a couple of models that want to produce this thing into a depression and move up the coast. Other models have it fizzling out in 24 hours.

So what's odd about that? Well, the fact that the NHC doesn't even put it as a blip on their map. Yet the 7 day QPF rainfall seems to think there's going to be something happening out there. So while the consensus is that it's nothing by the NHC, the NWS seems to disagree that it will be something.

The UKMET 5 day forecast seems to think it could be something. And while the UKMET is one of the more reliable models, it was also the model that had Cristobal making landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border. So. There's that.

One weather guy I follow says models are picking it up better now. He sees it staying off the coast due to damming but that it could make for a breezy day.

 

[TheIronSheik]

One odd thing is what is off the coast of GA right now. There is an area of disturbed weather that has just been meandering there. The NHC doesn't even mention it, but there are a couple of models that want to produce this thing into a depression and move up the coast. Other models have it fizzling out in 24 hours.

So what's odd about that? Well, the fact that the NHC doesn't even put it as a blip on their map. Yet the 7 day QPF rainfall seems to think there's going to be something happening out there. So while the consensus is that it's nothing by the NHC, the NWS seems to disagree that it will be something.

The UKMET 5 day forecast seems to think it could be something. And while the UKMET is one of the more reliable models, it was also the model that had Cristobal making landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border. So. There's that.

One weather guy I follow says models are picking it up better now. He sees it staying off the coast due to damming but that it could make for a breezy day.

Newest EURO picked it up as a possible LLC and possible development into maybe Invest 91L by Sunday. I'm still surprised that the NHC doesn't even mark this area as a concern.

 

[TheIronSheik]

90L lowered to 20% chance of formation over the next 5 days.

 

[3C's]

One odd thing is what is off the coast of GA right now. There is an area of disturbed weather that has just been meandering there. The NHC doesn't even mention it, but there are a couple of models that want to produce this thing into a depression and move up the coast. Other models have it fizzling out in 24 hours.

So what's odd about that? Well, the fact that the NHC doesn't even put it as a blip on their map. Yet the 7 day QPF rainfall seems to think there's going to be something happening out there. So while the consensus is that it's nothing by the NHC, the NWS seems to disagree that it will be something.

The UKMET 5 day forecast seems to think it could be something. And while the UKMET is one of the more reliable models, it was also the model that had Cristobal making landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border. So. There's that.

One weather guy I follow says models are picking it up better now. He sees it staying off the coast due to damming but that it could make for a breezy day.

Newest EURO picked it up as a possible LLC and possible development into maybe Invest 91L by Sunday. I'm still surprised that the NHC doesn't even mark this area as a concern.

You got your yellow X. You happy now?!

 

[TheIronSheik]

One odd thing is what is off the coast of GA right now. There is an area of disturbed weather that has just been meandering there. The NHC doesn't even mention it, but there are a couple of models that want to produce this thing into a depression and move up the coast. Other models have it fizzling out in 24 hours.

So what's odd about that? Well, the fact that the NHC doesn't even put it as a blip on their map. Yet the 7 day QPF rainfall seems to think there's going to be something happening out there. So while the consensus is that it's nothing by the NHC, the NWS seems to disagree that it will be something.

The UKMET 5 day forecast seems to think it could be something. And while the UKMET is one of the more reliable models, it was also the model that had Cristobal making landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border. So. There's that.

One weather guy I follow says models are picking it up better now. He sees it staying off the coast due to damming but that it could make for a breezy day.

Newest EURO picked it up as a possible LLC and possible development into maybe Invest 91L by Sunday. I'm still surprised that the NHC doesn't even mark this area as a concern.

You got your yellow X. You happy now?!

I only logged on from home just to toot my own horn. Toot! Toot!

 

[3C's]

 

[3C's]

One odd thing is what is off the coast of GA right now. There is an area of disturbed weather that has just been meandering there. The NHC doesn't even mention it, but there are a couple of models that want to produce this thing into a depression and move up the coast. Other models have it fizzling out in 24 hours.

So what's odd about that? Well, the fact that the NHC doesn't even put it as a blip on their map. Yet the 7 day QPF rainfall seems to think there's going to be something happening out there. So while the consensus is that it's nothing by the NHC, the NWS seems to disagree that it will be something.

The UKMET 5 day forecast seems to think it could be something. And while the UKMET is one of the more reliable models, it was also the model that had Cristobal making landfall on the Texas/Louisiana border. So. There's that.

One weather guy I follow says models are picking it up better now. He sees it staying off the coast due to damming but that it could make for a breezy day.

Newest EURO picked it up as a possible LLC and possible development into maybe Invest 91L by Sunday. I'm still surprised that the NHC doesn't even mark this area as a concern.

No development as long as it stays over land. Not that Florida cares since it's a soaker.

 

[3C's]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

repeat

 

[TheIronSheik]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

repeat

Too much dry air ahead of it. That area over GA now will move out towards sea.

 

[3C's]

90L is far from dead. Storms firing up.

repeat

Too much dry air ahead of it. That area over GA now will move out towards sea.

Probably so. If it can make it through Sunday it has a chance. That one inland in the SE won't be anything it appears. NHC has it 10% chance. Gonna get swallowed up in a few days.

 

[3C's]

That new one coming off Africa soon they already have at 50% in 5 days.

GFS thinks it's gonna be big by Wednesday. It (to my untrained eye) is south of the dry air.