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***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NewlyRetired
- Start date
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
If we draw tomorrow, I assume a higher scoring draw is better than a lower scoring draw in case it comes down to a goals scored tie breaker with Ghana.
The Gator
Footballguy
Here's what I see happening....
USA 5 Portugal 4
Goals from Wondo(2), Deuce, Bradley and Cameron
Cristiano takes the golden boot lead with 4 goals
Aside from USA, I hope everybody loses
Premier
Footballguy
especially Portugal. Like, tomorrow.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
They actually have four scenarios different than mine. Three of those are from the path of we draw with Portugal tomorrow and draw with Germany on Thursday. I show those three as a point differential between US and Germany, which it is. But, since we both draw out and Germany currently has the point diff advantage, they still would at that point. So those three increase Germany's Group Winner number from 11 to 14.I found a visual of the remaining scenarios, but it doesn't look like it matches up with this.Any thoughts?
The fourth different one has me confused. It's from the one with the US losing tomorrow then beating Germany, and Portugal beating Ghana on Thursday. This puts US and POR at 6 points each which means point differential, but they show US winning the group and POR 2nd. I'm good with that and the only thing I can think of they are looking at the current point diff. Since the US is 5 better than Portugal maybe they are assuming that Portugal's wins over US and Ghana v US's loss to Portugal and win over Germany wouldn't be more than a 5 point swing.
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Celph Titled
Footballguy
well duh
TenTimes
Backhoe Operator
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
Sounds like a guy I know. I always say his team is AS Real United. Whenever he talks about how his team is doing I have to ask him which one? Roma, Madrid or Manchester.
Sand
Footballguy
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
The chances of me updating that fan list after like 12 beers are pretty slim.
ETA - grammar
ETA - grammar
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Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I lied. Here's your updated list....for those of you planning on sticking it out in the soccer thread, the full post does have all of the club teams listed too. Link is in my sig.
International
United States - everyone (probably?)
Argentina - Sebowski, otello, Gianmarco, DiStefano
Bolivia - Sebowski
Brazil - Desert Power, Z's wife, Derek, Abrantes, SmoovySmoov, Corporation
Canada - Polsonov?
Chile - BassNBrew
Croatia - kblitz
Denmark - Major
Ecuador - Sand
Egypt - Jmon
England - SmoovySmoov, AAABatteries, Txns8, theprince, T Bell, Charvik, Jonessed, Christo, Corporation
Germany - Mjolnirs, eagles2007, editor47, Bonzai, Short Corner, Corporation, Fariq, Bierfiend, Jayrod
Ireland - PIK95
Italy - Steve Tasker, Texas Football, otello, Boubucarow, Gianmarco, Kafka
Japan - SmoovySmoov
Netherlands - MrPhoenix, AAABatteries, Major, Abraham
Nigeria - Eephus
Portugal - Gator
Serbia - Vipers
Spain - Sebowski, Kansas Comet, Z Machine, The Reytheist, Good Posting Judge, ilov80s
Trinidat & Tobago - Fariq
Turkey - Steve Tasker
Venezuela - Z's wife, Z Machine
Wales - Jonessed
International
United States - everyone (probably?)
Argentina - Sebowski, otello, Gianmarco, DiStefano
Bolivia - Sebowski
Brazil - Desert Power, Z's wife, Derek, Abrantes, SmoovySmoov, Corporation
Canada - Polsonov?
Chile - BassNBrew
Croatia - kblitz
Denmark - Major
Ecuador - Sand
Egypt - Jmon
England - SmoovySmoov, AAABatteries, Txns8, theprince, T Bell, Charvik, Jonessed, Christo, Corporation
Germany - Mjolnirs, eagles2007, editor47, Bonzai, Short Corner, Corporation, Fariq, Bierfiend, Jayrod
Ireland - PIK95
Italy - Steve Tasker, Texas Football, otello, Boubucarow, Gianmarco, Kafka
Japan - SmoovySmoov
Netherlands - MrPhoenix, AAABatteries, Major, Abraham
Nigeria - Eephus
Portugal - Gator
Serbia - Vipers
Spain - Sebowski, Kansas Comet, Z Machine, The Reytheist, Good Posting Judge, ilov80s
Trinidat & Tobago - Fariq
Turkey - Steve Tasker
Venezuela - Z's wife, Z Machine
Wales - Jonessed
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
El Floppo
Footballguy
Look- there's USA and there's... #### em.
eta: and Giuseppe ####### Rossi
eta2: cat and 2yo woke me up at 4:45. I hate everything right now.
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El Floppo
Footballguy
ah- ok. I don't follow betting, so it's just news talking heads and in here for me.
and maybe "insane" is an overstatement... Portugal is as ripe as they possibly could be for an upset given the missing players. I don't dislike the US's chances- certainly capable of getting this done (and I've been telling anybody I meet that the US is capable of beating any team in this WC... if the wind blows the right way). But it would definitely be an upset to get points here.
Worm
slimy ninja
Well... I believe...
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Nate Silver has it:
US win: 35%
Portugal win: 36%
Draw: 29%
Oddsmakers have dramatically overrated Europe in this tournament so far. I think Silver is onto something with his "home continent" adjustment.
Or maybe the World Cup just brings out so much dumb money that they're setting the odds based on brand name rather than worrying about the most likely results.
US win: 35%
Portugal win: 36%
Draw: 29%
Oddsmakers have dramatically overrated Europe in this tournament so far. I think Silver is onto something with his "home continent" adjustment.
Or maybe the World Cup just brings out so much dumb money that they're setting the odds based on brand name rather than worrying about the most likely results.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Also, in terms of whether the tie was good or bad for the US... Silver's odds of the US advancing dropped from 69% to 63% after the Germany/Ghana game. So it did hurt our chances a little bit.
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El Floppo
Footballguy
otello
Footballguy
The World Cup in Brazil has been ratings gold for TV networks, setting new audience records for ESPN and Univision -- and giving victories to Univision for many top matches.
The U.S. team's surprise 2-1 win over World Cup nemesis Ghana on Monday became the most-viewed men's soccer match in ESPN's history, averaging 11.1 million viewers on the channel, according to the network.
It also brought in WatchESPN's largest audience to date, with a total of 1.4 million viewers streaming the game live. And the match between Germany and Portugal delivered WatchESPN's second-best audience yet, with 1.1 million viewers.
The tournament as a whole is also proving a stronger draw than four years ago, both on TV and online, where numbers were expected to grow significantly because streaming was in its infancy during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.
The first 20 matches of the World Cup drew an average of 3.8 million viewers for ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC combined, up 31% from 2010.
The WatchESPN app averaged 780,000 live unique viewers over the first 20 matches, up 152% from the first 20 matches in 2010, ESPN said. Live minutes watched increased 151% to 33.9 million, while minutes per viewer grew 4% to 43.
At Univision Deportes, the first 20 matches have averaged 3.6 million viewers, a 43% surge from 2010. Live streams for the network averaged 238,000 viewers during the same period, up 262%. The first seven days of the World Cup were the most visited days for Univision's digital properties in the company's history, the company said.
Univision out-delivered ESPN in total audience for four of the five most-viewed matches. An average of 6.8 million people watched Mexico hold Brazil to a 0-0 tie on Univision, for example, compared with 4.2 million on ESPN.
That same match was streamed by 1.6 million people through Univision's digital properties, beating ESPN's live stream of USA vs. Ghana.
Univision's airing of Mexico vs. Brazil also topped all five NHL Stanley Cup finals games on NBC and NBCSN in the 18-to-49 demographic, according to Univision.
The U.S. team plays its second match on Sunday, facing off against Portugal.
The U.S. team's surprise 2-1 win over World Cup nemesis Ghana on Monday became the most-viewed men's soccer match in ESPN's history, averaging 11.1 million viewers on the channel, according to the network.
It also brought in WatchESPN's largest audience to date, with a total of 1.4 million viewers streaming the game live. And the match between Germany and Portugal delivered WatchESPN's second-best audience yet, with 1.1 million viewers.
The tournament as a whole is also proving a stronger draw than four years ago, both on TV and online, where numbers were expected to grow significantly because streaming was in its infancy during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.
The first 20 matches of the World Cup drew an average of 3.8 million viewers for ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC combined, up 31% from 2010.
The WatchESPN app averaged 780,000 live unique viewers over the first 20 matches, up 152% from the first 20 matches in 2010, ESPN said. Live minutes watched increased 151% to 33.9 million, while minutes per viewer grew 4% to 43.
At Univision Deportes, the first 20 matches have averaged 3.6 million viewers, a 43% surge from 2010. Live streams for the network averaged 238,000 viewers during the same period, up 262%. The first seven days of the World Cup were the most visited days for Univision's digital properties in the company's history, the company said.
Univision out-delivered ESPN in total audience for four of the five most-viewed matches. An average of 6.8 million people watched Mexico hold Brazil to a 0-0 tie on Univision, for example, compared with 4.2 million on ESPN.
That same match was streamed by 1.6 million people through Univision's digital properties, beating ESPN's live stream of USA vs. Ghana.
Univision's airing of Mexico vs. Brazil also topped all five NHL Stanley Cup finals games on NBC and NBCSN in the 18-to-49 demographic, according to Univision.
The U.S. team plays its second match on Sunday, facing off against Portugal.
Native
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think if there is any confidence it's not because of just one game. Germany destroyed Portugal and then tied a Ghana team the US just played poorly against but beat. Portugal is now going to be even weaker when they play the US.
Obviously A+B doesn't always equal C when it comes to sports, but I think that game yesterday gave more hope. In fact, I think a lot of the upsets and unexpected scores are giving hope. I mean, Iran almost taking Argentina to a draw!?
El Floppo
Footballguy
yeah- that's the insanity logic I'm talking about.
It's still CRo and an albeit tired but good Portugal side against a tired US side.
otello
Footballguy
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
It's much more nuanced than that.It's CRo and a good albeit tired and possibly self-destructing Portugal side missing 3-4 starters against a tired but also probably good US side missing one starter, playing in a harsh jungle climate in a tournament where Euro sides in general have underachieved.
In my mind this could go either way, so Nate Silver's odds "feel" right.
ETA- that said, I felt much better about things when a draw would have been a very good result. But Germany didn't take care of business yesterday, so now a draw is just an OK-to-pretty good result in terms of advancing.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
He's still probably the best in the world, but the best in the world who has been icing his knee, leaving practice early and wearing a brace. I'm not saying the US is the favorite, but I think there's ample reason for believing their chances are better than everyone thought they were 2 weeks ago.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
FWIW, he's been really good so far in this tournament. After the first round of results his predictions have been considerably better than the oddsmakers.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
More than that, Portugal probably shouldn't have been a huge favorite to advance over the US in the first place. The power rankings guys had/have them much closer together than the oddsmakers.
Silver had Portugal as a favorite, but not a prohibitive favorite, and the ELO rankers (like Chess) have Portugal #7 and the US #13 currently. IOW, when you look only at results and data there's no chasm between the two sides in the first place.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
No one's suggesting otherwise I don't think. It's going to be a very tough game in very tough conditions.
DaVinci
FairTaxguy
The_Man
Footballguy
A bunch of ill-informed partisans making bold pronouncements based on very limited knowledge? That sounds ... like America.
I would be thrilled if the U.S. can manage a draw. Have my fears that this is when our swiss cheese defense gets exposed.
Norman Paperman
Footballguy
#IBelieve
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Men in Blazers preview the game.
These guys are so good. Love the Xed out Rooney picture in the background.
These guys are so good. Love the Xed out Rooney picture in the background.
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Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
These guys have been killing it day after day. I would love it if ESPN put them in the booth for one of the meaningless 3rd matches this week, like Spain-Australia or something.
otello
Footballguy
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