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***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (2 Viewers)

German v Brazil
It's amazing to realize that this is only the second time these two teams will have met in World Cup history.

Since the World Cup began, only the first one in 1930 did not have either of these teams in the final four left standing.
1934 - Germany in the semis
1938 - Brazil in the semis
1950 - Brazil in the final
1954 - Germany in the final
1958 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final
1962 - Brazil in the final
1966 - Germany in the final
1970 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final
1974 - Germany in the final, Brazil in the 3rd place match
1978 - Brazil in the 3rd place match
1982 - Germany in the final
1986 - Germany in the final
1990 - Germany in the final
1994 - Brazil in the final
1998 - Brazil in the final
2002 - Germany and Bazil in the final
2006 - Germany in the semis
2010 - Germany in the semis
2014 - Germany and Brazil in the semis, one of them in the final

As you can see, there were a few time where they could have met in a final or the 3rd place match, but one or the other would advance. 1958, 1970, 1974

 
Mjolnirs said:
German v Brazil

It's amazing to realize that this is only the second time these two teams will have met in World Cup history.

Since the World Cup began, only the first one in 1930 did not have either of these teams in the final four left standing.

1934 - Germany in the semis

1938 - Brazil in the semis

1950 - Brazil in the final

1954 - Germany in the final

1958 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final

1962 - Brazil in the final

1966 - Germany in the final

1970 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final

1974 - Germany in the final, Brazil in the 3rd place match

1978 - Brazil in the 3rd place match

1982 - Germany in the final

1986 - Germany in the final

1990 - Germany in the final

1994 - Brazil in the final

1998 - Brazil in the final

2002 - Germany and Bazil in the final

2006 - Germany in the semis

2010 - Germany in the semis

2014 - Germany and Brazil in the semis, one of them in the final

As you can see, there were a few time where they could have met in a final or the 3rd place match, but one or the other would advance. 1958, 1970, 1974
Click to expand...
How many times have Germany and Bazil played?

 
TheIronSheik said:
Mjolnirs said:
German v Brazil

It's amazing to realize that this is only the second time these two teams will have met in World Cup history.

Since the World Cup began, only the first one in 1930 did not have either of these teams in the final four left standing.

1934 - Germany in the semis

1938 - Brazil in the semis

1950 - Brazil in the final

1954 - Germany in the final

1958 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final

1962 - Brazil in the final

1966 - Germany in the final

1970 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final

1974 - Germany in the final, Brazil in the 3rd place match

1978 - Brazil in the 3rd place match

1982 - Germany in the final

1986 - Germany in the final

1990 - Germany in the final

1994 - Brazil in the final

1998 - Brazil in the final2002 - Germany and Bazil in the final

2006 - Germany in the semis

2010 - Germany in the semis2014 - Germany and Brazil in the semis, one of them in the final

As you can see, there were a few time where they could have met in a final or the 3rd place match, but one or the other would advance. 1958, 1970, 1974
Click to expand...
How many times have Germany and Bazil played?
Click to expand...
22 times including all competitions and friendlies. First game was 1963, most recent was 2011.

The 22 times includes West Germany vs Brazil games.

 
been out for a bit, sucks that the US lost but the effort was good!

that goalie thing for NED was pretty insane, to a novice like me

 
NewlyRetired said:
TheIronSheik said:
Mjolnirs said:
German v Brazil

It's amazing to realize that this is only the second time these two teams will have met in World Cup history.

Since the World Cup began, only the first one in 1930 did not have either of these teams in the final four left standing.

1934 - Germany in the semis

1938 - Brazil in the semis

1950 - Brazil in the final

1954 - Germany in the final

1958 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final

1962 - Brazil in the final

1966 - Germany in the final

1970 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final

1974 - Germany in the final, Brazil in the 3rd place match

1978 - Brazil in the 3rd place match

1982 - Germany in the final

1986 - Germany in the final

1990 - Germany in the final

1994 - Brazil in the final

1998 - Brazil in the final2002 - Germany and Bazil in the final

2006 - Germany in the semis

2010 - Germany in the semis2014 - Germany and Brazil in the semis, one of them in the final

As you can see, there were a few time where they could have met in a final or the 3rd place match, but one or the other would advance. 1958, 1970, 1974
Click to expand...
How many times have Germany and Bazil played?
Click to expand...
22 times including all competitions and friendlies. First game was 1963, most recent was 2011.

The 22 times includes West Germany vs Brazil games.
Click to expand...
Wait. Are we talking about Brazil or Bazil? Now I'm confused. :confused:

 
Short Corner said:
wdcrob said:
Nate Silver provides a tasty review of Brazil's chances without Neymar and Silva. Love this stuff.

And I hope he's been betting real money on his predictions -- he's made a killing if so.
Click to expand...
Which ones? Outside of BRA getting a much better price than his model indicated, most of the value was in underdogs.
Click to expand...
He's not allowed to bet underdogs?

After the first set of games, he had the US, Costa Rica and Mexico as big favorites to advance at the expense of Portugal, Croatia and England -- who the bookies had. He also had Chile and Colombia doing well -- but they both ran into Brazil.

I believe he also liked the US's and Costa Rica's chances in the R16 too.

Those are just the games I recall where there was a big gap between the models and the (English) oddsmakers.

 
I think SPI has worked pretty well in general, but I don't understand what he's doing with the plus/minus player models.

I mean, is the surplus goals scored/saved distributed evenly across a team like Arsenal or is there some win shares formula I'm not seeing?

Otherwise, it seems the entire thing driving these plus/minus ratings for players is playing for good teams. Jo and Bernard are literally only rated on+/- with Brazil. Of course they're going to grade out above average because Brazil is a lot better than Israel.

I'm not sure I agree that Brazil are "exceptionally deep." Without Neymar, nobody on the team has over 10 international goals.

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I think SPI has worked pretty well in general, but I don't understand what he's doing with the plus/minus player models.

I mean, is the surplus goals scored/saved distributed evenly across a team like Arsenal or is there some win shares formula I'm not seeing?

Otherwise, it seems the entire thing driving these plus/minus ratings for players is playing for good teams. Jo and Bernard are literally only rated on+/- with Brazil. Of course they're going to grade out above average because Brazil is a lot better than Israel.
Click to expand...
I think it's distributed evenly, taking into account substitutions and who was actually on the pitch when goals were scored.

"Earning a starting spot on a dominant team" actually seems like a pretty decent indicator of player quality, as far as stat-based approached go.

 
Sand said:
NewlyRetired said:
Ted Lange as your Bartender said:
USA not fully eliminated from the WC yet...

@MLS: #USA ref Mark Geiger selected as 4th official for #BRAvGER semifinal: http://t.co/Ial9tuQTSz http://t.co/tzqe655tLj
Click to expand...
That is cool. No American ref had ever even made it to a knock out round game before.
Click to expand...
IMO he's been excellent in the games I've seen him in.
Click to expand...
His handling of the Spain/Chile game was perfect. Six minutes of added time without a big injury and mainly because of time wasting was nice to see.

 
When the coaches complain about the refs, do they really have problems with them? Or is it more to try and shift some calls?

Like when a coach yells at the umpire in baseball in hopes that he'll give a call or two their way. Or do they really hate these refs? As a novice, my first thought is they hate them. But maybe it's just posturing that I'm not aware of.

 
TheIronSheik said:
NewlyRetired said:
TheIronSheik said:
Mjolnirs said:
German v Brazil

It's amazing to realize that this is only the second time these two teams will have met in World Cup history.

Since the World Cup began, only the first one in 1930 did not have either of these teams in the final four left standing.

1934 - Germany in the semis

1938 - Brazil in the semis

1950 - Brazil in the final

1954 - Germany in the final

1958 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final

1962 - Brazil in the final

1966 - Germany in the final

1970 - Germany in the semis, Brazil in the final

1974 - Germany in the final, Brazil in the 3rd place match

1978 - Brazil in the 3rd place match

1982 - Germany in the final

1986 - Germany in the final

1990 - Germany in the final

1994 - Brazil in the final

1998 - Brazil in the final2002 - Germany and Bazil in the final

2006 - Germany in the semis

2010 - Germany in the semis2014 - Germany and Brazil in the semis, one of them in the final

As you can see, there were a few time where they could have met in a final or the 3rd place match, but one or the other would advance. 1958, 1970, 1974
Click to expand...
How many times have Germany and Bazil played?
Click to expand...
22 times including all competitions and friendlies. First game was 1963, most recent was 2011.

The 22 times includes West Germany vs Brazil games.
Click to expand...
Wait. Are we talking about Brazil or Bazil? Now I'm confused. :confused:
Click to expand...
You shouldn't be. Bazil was in Fawlty Towers.

 
wdcrob said:
Short Corner said:
wdcrob said:
Nate Silver provides a tasty review of Brazil's chances without Neymar and Silva. Love this stuff.

And I hope he's been betting real money on his predictions -- he's made a killing if so.
Click to expand...
Which ones? Outside of BRA getting a much better price than his model indicated, most of the value was in underdogs.
Click to expand...
He's not allowed to bet underdogs?

After the first set of games, he had the US, Costa Rica and Mexico as big favorites to advance at the expense of Portugal, Croatia and England -- who the bookies had. He also had Chile and Colombia doing well -- but they both ran into Brazil.

I believe he also liked the US's and Costa Rica's chances in the R16 too.

Those are just the games I recall where there was a big gap between the models and the (English) oddsmakers.
Click to expand...
I didn't mean to imply that he wasn't allowed to bet dogs. Just that most of the value was in teams that didn't advance anyway. IIRC, he had the US at 64% to advance after Ghana and the books weren't making you lay much more. After POR 538 had them at 78% and the books were in the neighborhood of -500 to -800 depending on when you got in. There wasn't much, if any value on the US advancing using the 538 model.

 
Short Corner said:
I didn't mean to imply that he wasn't allowed to bet dogs. Just that most of the value was in teams that didn't advance anyway. IIRC, he had the US at 64% to advance after Ghana and the books weren't making you lay much more. After POR 538 had them at 78% and the books were in the neighborhood of -500 to -800 depending on when you got in. There wasn't much, if any value on the US advancing using the 538 model.
Click to expand...
Posted this after the first round of group games... basically the biggest 538/Oddschecker discrepencies:

Chile (78% vs 55% -- at the expense of Spain) -- check

Costa Rica (72% vs 38% -- at the expense of England) -- check

USA (69% vs 45% -- at the expense of Portugal) -- check

IIRC he also had the US, Chile, Colombia and Costa Rica more likely to advance from the group stage before the tournament started.

 
B-Deep said:
CBusAlex said:
B-Deep said:
that goalie thing for NED was pretty insane, to a novice like me
Click to expand...
It was pretty insane to us vets, too.
Click to expand...
what's the overall opinion?

genius?

or insanity that happened to work?
Click to expand...
I'm assuming that during practices they had, over hundreds of penalty kicks, Krul was slightly better at stopping them than their starting goalkeeper. So he went with the percentages, even though Krul had only stopped 2 out of 20 while playing for his club team. And it paid off; but there is always an element of luck in a penalty shoot out.

 
DiStefano said:
B-Deep said:
CBusAlex said:
B-Deep said:
that goalie thing for NED was pretty insane, to a novice like me
Click to expand...
It was pretty insane to us vets, too.
Click to expand...
what's the overall opinion?

genius?

or insanity that happened to work?
Click to expand...
I'm assuming that during practices they had, over hundreds of penalty kicks, Krul was slightly better at stopping them than their starting goalkeeper. So he went with the percentages, even though Krul had only stopped 2 out of 20 while playing for his club team. And it paid off; but there is always an element of luck in a penalty shoot out.
Click to expand...
Excellently played mind games IMO.

Krul is 2" taller and it was mentioned to me that most of the Chile PKs in the previous round were high shots.

Also, you are in the 120th min, your opponent subs his keeper specifically for PKs... your mind starts to think he must be damn good at stopping them.

Wont work a 2nd time, but for that time and place, genius.

 
Sebowski said:
TenTimes said:
headgames :thumbup: gives the appearance of a world class PK stopper
Click to expand...
Plus if this was the plan all along Krul could have focussed the off days soley studying the Costa Rica PK taking.
Click to expand...
Sebowski said:
http://www.espnfc.us/netherlands/story/1934966/louis-van-gaal-had-planned-tim-krul-switch-all-along

"Every player in my selection has certain skills and qualities and they don't always coincide," Van Gaal said. "We always felt that Tim Krul would be the most appropriate player to stop penalties.

"He has a long reach and we prepared Costa Rican penalties. He dove into the right corner time and time again. We are a little bit proud that this trick has helped us through."

The Netherlands staff had discussed the goalkeeper change as they prepared for the match -- but no one told starting keeper Cillessen.

:bowtie:
Click to expand...
 
Of all the tv ratings records set during the World Cup, this latest record is pretty cool.

The Germany France quater final drew 9.6 million combined viewers (4.9m on ESPN2 and 4.7m on Univision).

The 4.9 million viewers on ESPN2 makes this game the most watched ESPN2 telecast ever. It topped the previous high of 4.6m for a Yankees Red Sox playoff game back in 2003.

Here are some other quarter final rating numbers

Brazil/Colombia quarterfinal at 11.8m combined (ESPN 6.3m / UNI 5.5m)

Netherlands/Costa Rica quarterfinal at 10.9M combined. (ESPN 5.8M / UNI 5.1m)

Argentina/Belgium quarterfinal at 8.8M combined. (ABC 5.2M / UNI 3.6m)

 
The Holland move was genius for a number of reasons imo.

1) Puts pressure on the coach not the goalie or even the shooters and mentioned above.

2) You are able to integrate an additional player into your team in a way that doesn't disrupt your team at all. As a backup, Krul really has nothing but time. He can study all possible kickers fully and the likely ones even moreso. He guessed right every time - even on the ones he didn't save. He has a clear mind with a specific mission - no fatigue not even any history in-game.

Cajones of steel that coach. Worthy of all props.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
The Holland move was genius for a number of reasons imo.

1) Puts pressure on the coach not the goalie or even the shooters and mentioned above.

2) You are able to integrate an additional player into your team in a way that doesn't disrupt your team at all. As a backup, Krul really has nothing but time. He can study all possible kickers fully and the likely ones even moreso. He guessed right every time - even on the ones he didn't save. He has a clear mind with a specific mission - no fatigue not even any history in-game.

Cajones of steel that coach. Worthy of all props.

-QG
Click to expand...
Actually, what you just said is that he had boxes of steel.

 
By the way, one of the greatest five players in the history of soccer (and also a distant relative of mine), passed away today: Alfredo DiStefano.

Now DiStefano is not my real name, but my maternal grandmother was a DiStefano and she said she was related to the DiStefanos who went to Argentina at the end of the 19th Century. Alfredo started playing in Argentina for River Plate, and was their top scorer around 1947. There was a player revolt (clubs held players pretty much as indentured servants in those days), and he left Argentina and went to play in Colombia, which was not affiliated with FIFA at that time, so he could play there. Eventually he moved to Spain and became a star with Real Madrid, winning a number of international competitions. Many consider him one of the greatest of all time.

 
DiStefano said:
QuizGuy66 said:
The Holland move was genius for a number of reasons imo.

1) Puts pressure on the coach not the goalie or even the shooters and mentioned above.

2) You are able to integrate an additional player into your team in a way that doesn't disrupt your team at all. As a backup, Krul really has nothing but time. He can study all possible kickers fully and the likely ones even moreso. He guessed right every time - even on the ones he didn't save. He has a clear mind with a specific mission - no fatigue not even any history in-game.

Cajones of steel that coach. Worthy of all props.

-QG
Click to expand...
Actually, what you just said is that he had boxes of steel.
Click to expand...
Still true :)

Boxes with balls in 'em

-QG

 
Brazil v Germany

Tough game to predict. I think Brazil will be lucky to get past Germany. I see Germany winning 2-1 with an early German goal with Brazil never equalizing it. If Brazil plays dirty and are allowed to get away with it, like they have been, than I see extra time but if the game is "clean" than I see Germany walking away with it in regular time.

I've been downloading and converting the World Cup games to watch. I have each game and the data is about 220 GB already. The whole World Cup will be around 250 GB.

 
Mario Kart said:
Brazil v Germany

Tough game to predict. I think Brazil will be lucky to get past Germany. I see Germany winning 2-1 with an early German goal with Brazil never equalizing it. If Brazil plays dirty and are allowed to get away with it, like they have been, than I see extra time but if the game is "clean" than I see Germany walking away with it in regular time.

I've been downloading and converting the World Cup games to watch. I have each game and the data is about 220 GB already. The whole World Cup will be around 250 GB.
Click to expand...
Where are you doing that from?

 
Slapdash said:
Mario Kart said:
Brazil v Germany

Tough game to predict. I think Brazil will be lucky to get past Germany. I see Germany winning 2-1 with an early German goal with Brazil never equalizing it. If Brazil plays dirty and are allowed to get away with it, like they have been, than I see extra time but if the game is "clean" than I see Germany walking away with it in regular time.

I've been downloading and converting the World Cup games to watch. I have each game and the data is about 220 GB already. The whole World Cup will be around 250 GB.
Click to expand...
Where are you doing that from?
Click to expand...
kicka$$ torrents. Going to take you a long time to do it now... downloading so much. Those round robin games my computer was downloading and converting all day.

 
Here's what Brazil need to do to win;

First, #### Fred right off the team.

Hulk

Bernard Willian

Oscar

Gustavo Fernadinho

Marcelo Dante Luiz Alves

Boom, done...see ya Germans.

Scolari> you're welcome

 
Sebowski said:
:thumbup:

I like it.

Unfortunately, I think they'll go defensive and make it a fight. RIP joga bonito
Click to expand...
I really think that would make for a great game.

Fred is offering nothing, so maybe Hulk can use his size in the middle against Matts and BFG. Hulk's been terrible outside anyway.

Bernard and Willian = speeeeeed and Willian tracks back well so that's a plus in regards to 'only' playing two DMs.

The German full backs having to deal with that speed running at them, plus the mass that is Hulk in the middle? I'd love to see that.

 
The Gator said:
Sebowski said:
:thumbup:

I like it.

Unfortunately, I think they'll go defensive and make it a fight. RIP joga bonito
Click to expand...
I really think that would make for a great game.

Fred is offering nothing, so maybe Hulk can use his size in the middle against Matts and BFG. Hulk's been terrible outside anyway.

Bernard and Willian = speeeeeed and Willian tracks back well so that's a plus in regards to 'only' playing two DMs.

The German full backs having to deal with that speed running at them, plus the mass that is Hulk in the middle? I'd love to see that.
Click to expand...
I'd love to see Brazil go down swinging. Neymar's injury takes a bit of the massive pressure off his teammates. They've played not to lose but now they have their excuse if they do.

But I suspect we'll see more of how Brazil played against Colombia.

 
Speaking of Brazil playing the same way, the ref is going to be the same one who missed the Suarez bite. My Link

He did give Chiellini the red and doesn't appear to be against giving cards out.

 
sporthenry said:
Speaking of Brazil playing the same way, the ref is going to be the same one who missed the Suarez bite. My Link

He did give Chiellini the red and doesn't appear to be against giving cards out.
Click to expand...
He didn't give Chiellini a red....he gave Marchisio a red for studs-up possible-stomp (prior to the Suarez bite).

 
[icon] said:
Looks like the books currently favor a GER vs ARG finals and Germany to win it all (by slight margin)


Brazil v Germany - To Qualify for Next Round
Brazil +110
Germany -130
Click to expand...

Netherlands v Argentina - To Qualify for Next Round
Netherlands +110
Argentina -130
Click to expand...
To WIn 2014 World Cup:
Germany +210
Argentina +240
Brazil +290
Netherlands +300
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I doubted them coming in, but they've been soooo consistently good that it's hard not to argue with them taking it. Of course, some individual magic from a Robben or Messi might change that if they can get by a Brazil team more intent on not-losing than playing well... which they can afford to do with the talent they have.

 
The Gator said:
Sebowski said:
:thumbup:

I like it.

Unfortunately, I think they'll go defensive and make it a fight. RIP joga bonito
Click to expand...
I really think that would make for a great game.

Fred is offering nothing, so maybe Hulk can use his size in the middle against Matts and BFG. Hulk's been terrible outside anyway.

Bernard and Willian = speeeeeed and Willian tracks back well so that's a plus in regards to 'only' playing two DMs.

The German full backs having to deal with that speed running at them, plus the mass that is Hulk in the middle? I'd love to see that.
Click to expand...
Agreed that Fred is offering nothing...but why do you think you'll see BFG out there today?

Very likely back four will be Howedes, Boateng, Hummels and Lahm.

Germans have like two guys under 6' on their team - Lahm and Ozil (who's 5'11" - same size as Hulk)

I think both teams will play very defensive minded lineups today - would not surprise me at all to see Khedira and Schweiny starting in front of the back 4, and the Germans play a 4-2-3-1 again with Klose up top.

Game is going to be very tight.

 
wdcrob said:
Brazil hasn't lost in Brazil since 1975 in a match that matters. They may lose, but those odds are nuts IMO.
Click to expand...
Seriously.

Germany would be very well served to not commit any fouls in the box today. Brazilians are going to be flying left and right.

 
Premier said:
wdcrob said:
Brazil hasn't lost in Brazil since 1975 in a match that matters. They may lose, but those odds are nuts IMO.
Click to expand...
Seriously.

Germany would be very well served to not commit any fouls in the box today. Brazilians are going to be flying left and right.
Click to expand...
[icon] said:
Looks like the books currently favor a GER vs ARG finals and Germany to win it all (by slight margin)


Brazil v Germany - To Qualify for Next Round
Brazil +110
Germany -130
Click to expand...

Netherlands v Argentina - To Qualify for Next Round
Netherlands +110
Argentina -130
Click to expand...
To WIn 2014 World Cup:
Germany +210
Argentina +240
Brazil +290
Netherlands +300
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
FWIW most books have Brazil slightly favored. Not sure what SB is thinking here.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Predicting a brace for Fred today and another on Sunday to win the cup for Brazil and become a Selecao legend. Fred sold to Spurs this summer for £8m and leads them to win the English double in 2015-16 at the age of 32, then offloaded to Real for £27m. Fred returns to Fluminese at 36 and leads it to one more Brasileiro Serie A title before going into semi-retirement with the Red Bulls.

 
CletiusMaximus said:
Predicting a brace for Fred today and another on Sunday to win the cup for Brazil and become a Selecao legend. Fred sold to Spurs this summer for £8m and leads them to win the English double in 2015-16 at the age of 32, then offloaded to Real for £27m. Fred returns to Fluminese at 36 and leads it to one more Brasileiro Serie A title before going into semi-retirement with the Red Bulls.
Click to expand...
:lmao:

 
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