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***Official*** 2016 Dynasty Value Assessment Thread (2 Viewers)

He's a hold right now, very few buyers out there and the people who owb him don't really want to sell as his value is around 2.5, however he won't wind up there, he will either not be able to come back to form and be worth close to nothing or he will return and have mid to late 1st value (since he's turning 30) 

 
I got offered Graham for my 3.09 a few days ago. I'm at my roster cut down limit, so I took a moment to look at my roster and decide who I could drop for him. Before I could look, someone else accepted it for their 3.05. It's a TE premium league, and I know he is hurt and in Seattle and all, but kind of shocked me.
I traded Graham in a TE premium deep roster league where you can start up to two TEs last year, traded him midseason to a contender for Julian Edelman (start 3-5WR)

For comparisons sake

 
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He's a hold right now, very few buyers out there and the people who owb him don't really want to sell as his value is around 2.5, however he won't wind up there, he will either not be able to come back to form and be worth close to nothing or he will return and have mid to late 1st value (since he's turning 30) 
I think you're spot on.

 
His ADP is in startups is on the rise. Top 120 or so. Think you'd be hard pressed to be able to buy for less than a mid to late 2.
This is more my thinking.  Obviously he was injured when drafted and that would seem to indicate that he would have gone higher if healthy.  But he was also very raw.  

I think a mid to late second is probably the ballpark.  At that point you are looking at prospects drafted in the top 3 NFL rounds.  Smelter has an elite athletic profile and his hands might be the biggest ever measured for a wide receiver at the combine.  

I think ges got a chance to be much more Jordan Mathews than Riley Cooper.  

 
I traded Graham in a TE premium deep roster league where you can start up to two TEs last year, traded him midseason to a contender for Julian Edelman (start 3-5WR)

For comparisons sake
Not sure how that's a good comparison considering he wasn't hurt at that time.

 
Hankmoody said:
Not sure how that's a good comparison considering he wasn't hurt at that time.
This is the value assessment thread right? I was just giving another instance where Graham was traded, it had to have been after week 8 or 9, or whenever Edelman was hurt.

Snapshot of his value before he blew his knee. The owner wouldn't trade broken foot Edelman+ anything for him despite being on the cusp. Failed to move him several times that season, was very little interest.

 
Ladarius Green.  What's the highest pick you'd give for him in standard ppr TE required.  What is the lowest pick you'd accept?  

I'm thinking mid first.  4-7 range.  

 
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This is the value assessment thread right? I was just giving another instance where Graham was traded, it had to have been after week 8 or 9, or whenever Edelman was hurt.

Snapshot of his value before he blew his knee. The owner wouldn't trade broken foot Edelman+ anything for him despite being on the cusp. Failed to move him several times that season, was very little interest.
2016 Dynasty Value Assessment thread yes.  Not 2015 Pre-Graham-Injury Pre-Edelman-Recovery thread.  A trade made 8 months ago has no bearing on today's value assessments.

Although I did trade Calvin Johnson early last year for Doug Baldwin and a 2016 1st, so that must be his value now I guess.

 
Got me there, relative values are definitely unimportant for injured players.

 

Ladarius Green.  What's the highest pick you'd give for him in standard ppr TE required.  What is the lowest pick you'd accept?  

I'm thinking mid first.  4-7 range.  
1.03 for me, if I've been holding Green for years now and hes finally in a situation that he might be able to pay off I'm gonna want 1 of 3 guys in this draft.

 
 I'm not big on rookie tight ends or Hunter Henry in particular but I would have a hard time giving up a younger tight end who will likely be drafted earlier and hasn't struggled in the NFL to get green.  Green gets more hype than any other 4th round pick from 4 years ago

Yes he's in a nice landing spot but the Pittsburgh tight end position hasn't been that great over the years and they've had a pretty good guy.  San Diego has been a great spot for tight ends and even when Gates was hurt green wasnt all that special.   

I don't blame owners for wanting a top prospect for him.   I just think that's an unreasonably high price for a player coming off a career year of 429 yards and 4 tds and his first season of 20 or more catches.   

 
Yeah, I'm not ready to say whether he is or isn't anything. He played well above average when he actually started and was healthy. Just hard to get play time ahead of one of the best TEs ever, also seems to have a hard time staying healthy.

But I'm committed I haven't seen anything to make me think he can't be what I think he can be and if someone is looking to buy now, seemingly because his situation improved, they are gonna have to pay.

Recently tried to acquire him in another league for Jordan Cameron and Buck Allen to the Forsett owner, he turned it down.

 
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He averaged 14 ppg last season early on. He was TE8 in ppg when he got hurt. :shrug: . Then he was a backup.
I guess it depends how much you're willing to cherry pick.  

29 for 334 and 4 tds in the first 8 games with one game missed.   That prorates to 58/668/8.  Meh.

28 for 324 and 4 tds in 6 games if you ignore the game missed and his 1/10.  That prorates to 72/864/11.  That would have made him te7.  

Heath miller's best season was 71/816/8.  His second best was 76/789/6.  Those would have been good for te10 last year. 

I can see getting excited about Roethlisberger,  but rivers has actually been more productive and has targeted his tight ends a lot more than Ben.  

So if we use the most positive cherry picking, ignore the injuries,  and assume he will be more productive than the very good tight end Roethlisberger played with for most of his career,  you might get something between te7 and te10.  If you consider any of the injury history, changing teams, his fairly weak draft pedigree,  his inability to earn a more significant role,  and the fact his team was willing to let him go after hours rookie contract ended despite needing receivers and having an aging tight end, you could probably put him lower than that.

 I'm just not seeing top 3 pick here.   

 
Latavius Murray. I can't seem to figure out where his value is with so many news blurbs and panic happening. 
If you're buying Murray, Langford, Buck Allen,  Crowell, Ryan Mathews, McFadden/Morris, Ajayi, Rawls, gore, etc, in the next 3 weeks,  you should get a discount.  If his owner wants full price then talk after the NFL draft and look elsewhere.   This is a good time for bargain shopping but only if you're getting an actual bargain.   For Murray that would be a late first at most.  I'd definitely give a second.   

 
Latavius Murray. I can't seem to figure out where his value is with so many news blurbs and panic happening. 
Continuing with perhaps my terrible start up draft, I took him at 9.12. The two spots before were Larry Fitz and rookie pick 2.02. The three picks after were Julius Thomas (me) then rookie pick 2.03 and Desean Jackson. 

 
I guess it depends how much you're willing to cherry pick.  

29 for 334 and 4 tds in the first 8 games with one game missed.   That prorates to 58/668/8.  Meh.

28 for 324 and 4 tds in 6 games if you ignore the game missed and his 1/10.  That prorates to 72/864/11.  That would have made him te7.  

Heath miller's best season was 71/816/8.  His second best was 76/789/6.  Those would have been good for te10 last year. 

I can see getting excited about Roethlisberger,  but rivers has actually been more productive and has targeted his tight ends a lot more than Ben.  

So if we use the most positive cherry picking, ignore the injuries,  and assume he will be more productive than the very good tight end Roethlisberger played with for most of his career,  you might get something between te7 and te10.  If you consider any of the injury history, changing teams, his fairly weak draft pedigree,  his inability to earn a more significant role,  and the fact his team was willing to let him go after hours rookie contract ended despite needing receivers and having an aging tight end, you could probably put him lower than that.

 I'm just not seeing top 3 pick here.   
I agree.  I don't think he's worth a top 3 pick either.  I said 4-7 and certainly a first rounder.  But if this was last year's rookie class, it might be a second rounder.  I think the top pick thing is just as much a function of this weak class as it is Green.  

I usually ignore injuries.  I guess I don't hold them against guy because a true iron man is rare.  I mean, Gronk hasn't put in 16 games since 2011.  

 
Where are we pegging Jimmy Graham's value at now? Seems like tough to sell right now.
Traded him for Eric Ebron 2 weeks ago. Had a long debate with Bloom and Waldman on twitter, they still prefer Jimmy but I cannot see him ever coming back to elite TE1 status.

 
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I have Ebron comfortably over Graham as well.  Graham is much older, very injured, and in a crap situation.  

 
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If i could get him at a significant discount id gamble, but im personally not giving up pieces or futures of much value. That injury is really scary

 
From a value perspective I'd prefer Ebron. I think you make that trade for Ebron, then make another move to get Kelce or Ertz or whoever you think is a bonafide TE1. If Graham recovers I would rather start him in 2017 but I think that's spurious reasoning given the risk.

 
Anyone moved Watkins lately? Have him in a few leagues, acquired him in one league. Feels like he's trending upwards.

Trade I made a couple weeks ago, 12 team te premium 1qb 1-2rb 3-5wr 1-2te

Sent 2017 1st, 2017 2nd, Pierre Garcon, Seth Roberts

Received Sammy Watkins, Brandon Coleman, 7 late picks.

 
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Something missing from that trade? If not, you raped him. Watkins routinely goes in the late 1st, early 2nd round of startups as about the 8th WR off the board. I have offered the 1.03+ or the 1.02+ in two separate leagues and not surprisingly, turned down.

 
Anyone moved Watkins lately? Have him in a few leagues, acquired him in one league. Feels like he's trending upwards.

Trade I made a couple weeks ago, 12 team te premium 1qb 1-2rb 3-5wr 1-2te

Sent 2017 1st, 2017 2nd, Pierre Garcon, Seth Roberts

Received Sammy Watkins, Brandon Coleman, 7 late picks.
Just OFFERED (not traded) the 1.02, Smelter, 2017 4th, 10% of our waiver wire dollars for Sammy. 

I've made other offers over the last few months and have been shut down. I will update this once I get a response. 

 
IMO, Watkins perceived value is a top 10-12ish dyno asset in pretty much any format thats not 2QB

If I owned him, id want 2 early 1's+ for him right now, If I were buying I would make the argument his qb situation is about to get worse and try and get him for less but I doubt it would work

 
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Don't be a jerk. Have your passionate opinion but don't be a jerk. 
Sorry, gotta be me.

My statement was meant to be hyperbolic, didn't realize Megatron cobbled together some pretty good numbers as a compiler last year. I'll concede that, completely wrong. The point I was trying to make was that Stafford was more than okay with his non-megatron weapons.

Either way thanks for the input and kindly go #### yourself.
Yea, I'm just tired of all of you people here who come in with "Well he had a ####ty year last year" when the player turned in WR1 or RB1 numbers, but not at the level of his previous record breaking seasons.  Stafford now loses a guy capable of 90 catches, 1,200 yards and 10 TD's - if you think that Stafford's numbers won't fall off, then maybe you could point to Brett Favre when he lost Sterling Sharpe and actually increased his numbers the next year... but I don't think so.

 
Anyone moved Watkins lately? Have him in a few leagues, acquired him in one league. Feels like he's trending upwards.

Trade I made a couple weeks ago, 12 team te premium 1qb 1-2rb 3-5wr 1-2te

Sent 2017 1st, 2017 2nd, Pierre Garcon, Seth Roberts

Received Sammy Watkins, Brandon Coleman, 7 late picks.
Watkins' value is about 150% higher than what you paid

 
IMO, Watkins perceived value is a top 10-12ish dyno asset in pretty much any format thats not 2QB

If I owned him, id want 2 early 1's+ for him right now, If I were buying I would make the argument his qb situation is about to get worse and try and get him for less but I doubt it would work
Watkins was the 4th best PPR receiver from week 9 until the end last year.  People who had him for that stretch remember and won't let him go cheap.  I think two early 1st is probably correct.  Even then, I might pass.

 
Watkins was the 4th best PPR receiver from week 9 until the end last year.  People who had him for that stretch remember and won't let him go cheap.  I think two early 1st is probably correct.  Even then, I might pass.
ideally i would want 1.01 this year, and a virtual top 3 lock next year to really consider it

 
Sorry, gotta be me.

Yea, I'm just tired of all of you people here who come in with "Well he had a ####ty year last year" when the player turned in WR1 or RB1 numbers, but not at the level of his previous record breaking seasons.  Stafford now loses a guy capable of 90 catches, 1,200 yards and 10 TD's - if you think that Stafford's numbers won't fall off, then maybe you could point to Brett Favre when he lost Sterling Sharpe and actually increased his numbers the next year... but I don't think so.
I could see Stafford's numbers staying relatively static even after losing one of the greatest WRs of all time (and I agree he actually played very well last season despite those that think he sucked for some reason).

I think with Golden Tate, some good pass catching RBs, the additions of Marvin Jones and Jeremy Kerley (an underrated WR) and Eric Ebron likely progressing in his development Stafford can spread the ball around more and still compile good stats. He played very well once Billy Bob Cooter took over as OC and I'd expect the comfort level to carry over with a full offseason of work.

 
I'll put it this way, I drafted Megatron in a 12 team redraft ppr league last year, started him 3 times and he never produced, he rode the bench the rest of the season. He had one or two good games where I didn't start him but he wasn't good enough to supplant my other WRs.

My perception was based off that, as I said I was surprised to see his actual numbers cause I considered him a compiler last year.

 
I'll put it this way, I drafted Megatron in a 12 team redraft ppr league last year, started him 3 times and he never produced, he rode the bench the rest of the season. He had one or two good games where I didn't start him but he wasn't good enough to supplant my other WRs.

My perception was based off that, as I said I was surprised to see his actual numbers cause I considered him a compiler last year.
I drafted him in the 2nd round last year and won the championship for a 20 team/2 division/$250-buy in league.  He was fine.

 
I'll put it this way, I drafted Megatron in a 12 team redraft ppr league last year, started him 3 times and he never produced, he rode the bench the rest of the season. He had one or two good games where I didn't start him but he wasn't good enough to supplant my other WRs.

My perception was based off that, as I said I was surprised to see his actual numbers cause I considered him a compiler last year.
He finished as WR12 in ppr leagues. He did have a huge game on Thanksgiving which positively skewed his final numbers a bit but he had a good season overall.

 
Jeremy Hill... 2 years.... Last year stats were TD dependent.. Hue gone.... Gio may leave next year... What's he worth? A first and a second?

 
Jeremy Hill... 2 years.... Last year stats were TD dependent.. Hue gone.... Gio may leave next year... What's he worth? A first and a second?
I own him in only one spot, so i dont think im overly biased here

if you can get a decent 1st and 2nd for him, id do that, i think right now thats too much tho and nobody is likely to offer that to a hill owner.

I think he is a great buy low guy right now tho so if youre buying start w less of an offer. I like him to bounce back this year, on a team w that o line who lost all the wr talent they did, i feel like theyre gonna rely on the run a tad more this year

 
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Fun comparison for people who like hill:

Derrick Henry 6'3" 247

Jeremy hill 6'0" 233

Henry 4.54 40

Hill 4.66 40

Henry 37" vert

Hill 29" vert

Henry 130" broad

Hill 113" broad

Henry 4.38 shuttle

Hill 4.59 shuttle

Henry 7.20 3 cone

Hill 7.64 3 cone 

I think it goes without saying that I wouldn't give anything for hill that I could use to get Henry.  Depending on your league Henry might go 1.5 or later - if you're a fan of big backs and are even thinking about offering a mid first for hill, do yourself a favor and trade up instead.   

 
Fun comparison for people who like hill:

Derrick Henry 6'3" 247

Jeremy hill 6'0" 233

Henry 4.54 40

Hill 4.66 40

Henry 37" vert

Hill 29" vert

Henry 130" broad

Hill 113" broad

Henry 4.38 shuttle

Hill 4.59 shuttle

Henry 7.20 3 cone

Hill 7.64 3 cone 

I think it goes without saying that I wouldn't give anything for hill that I could use to get Henry.  Depending on your league Henry might go 1.5 or later - if you're a fan of big backs and are even thinking about offering a mid first for hill, do yourself a favor and trade up instead.   
Interesting comp. 

how do you feel about latavius? 

Vs Hill and Vs Henry?

 
Latavius 6'3" 223

40- 4.38

Vert 36''

Broad 124''

Shuttle 4.36

3 cone 6.81

bench, 22 reps (same as henry)

 
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I'm not confident that Latavius Murray is a long term starter in Oakland.  267/1066/6 is 4.0 ypc, barely above replacement level production.  He caught 41 balls, but for just 232 yards.  I can easily see them drafting someone to share or take over the backfield, but if they don't,  I would go Henry over Murray over hill.  

 
I'm not confident that Latavius Murray is a long term starter in Oakland.  267/1066/6 is 4.0 ypc, barely above replacement level production.  He caught 41 balls, but for just 232 yards.  I can easily see them drafting someone to share or take over the backfield, but if they don't,  I would go Henry over Murray over hill.  
What point are you trying to make?
The point was, the comp to Hill isnt great. I realize we are talking hill for a pick and that pick could be henry, BostonFred likes henry more than Hill, which is fine. But comparing their measurable stuff to each other means nothing. Theyre nothing alike and it doesnt mean Henry is better or worse.

So he was either saying Henry > Hill, or he was saying, "look at this freak athletes numbers, he has to be better than hill", and if that is the case, then so is Latavius,

 
Latavius 6'3" 223

40- 4.38

Vert 36''

Broad 124''

Shuttle 4.36

3 cone 6.81
This is a good comp.  But Henry was 21 at the combine.  Murray was 23.  Henry is bigger and did both jumps better.  Murray was significantly faster and did the 3 cone better.  Henry also has a better pedigree and fared much better against much tougher competition in college.  

 
This is a good comp.  But Henry was 21 at the combine.  Murray was 23.  Henry is bigger and did both jumps better.  Murray was significantly faster and did the 3 cone better.  Henry also has a better pedigree and fared much better against much tougher competition in college.  
True, its just hard to forecast what an incoming RB is gonna do in the NFL, and college production isnt necessarily THE indicator of success. Far too many Ron Dayne/Montee Ball types. We have at least seen what Murray and Hill can do, and I can totally understand gambling Henry can be at least as good. But Hill has shown he can be very good, and im not sure swapping him for a shot at henry isnt a mistake if he has a career resurgence ala Doug Martin

 
The point isn't that henry had a better combine than hill.   It's that he was remarkably better in every way.   Like completely crushed him.   It's crazy.  They both were considered talented big backs coming out,  but Henry looks like he could be Eddie George.   

 
The point isn't that henry had a better combine than hill.   It's that he was remarkably better in every way.   Like completely crushed him.   It's crazy.  They both were considered talented big backs coming out,  but Henry looks like he could be Eddie George.   
Thats what everyone is hoping for. There is a chance i might end up with him in one league, landing spot will be the determining factor.

 
Just OFFERED (not traded) the 1.02, Smelter, 2017 4th, 10% of our waiver wire dollars for Sammy. 

I've made other offers over the last few months and have been shut down. I will update this once I get a response. 
Update: REJECTED

Owner came back and said he has Watkins ranked just below OBJ, Julio, Brown and 2 others I'm forgetting. Basically, said he won't move Sammy unless it's a gross over pay. 

 

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