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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (1 Viewer)

I have never understood why building the fence is considered an anti-immigrant position. Building the fence and securing the border is a matter of national security. You can easily support a secure border and a more open legal immigration framework. You can easily support stricter enforcement of current immigration laws while proposing laws that make it easier to come here legally or even a path to amnesty for those already here (like Obama).

 
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I have never understood why building the fence is considered an anti-immigrant position. Building the fence and securing the border is a matter of national security. You can easily support a secure border and a more open legal immigration framework. You can easily support stricter enforcement of current immigration laws while proposing laws that make it easier to come here legally or even a path to amnesty for those already here (like Obama).
But even with amnesty and looser immigration laws, a fence on our southern border would be s powerful negative symbolic message to Mexico and Latin America that "we don't want you." It would also inhibit trade. In the end it would weaken, not strengthen, national security.
 
timschochet said:
All of the GOP candidates claim to revere Ronald Reagan. Perhaps they should have paid more attention to the Gipper's thoughts on illegal immigration. For instance:

Rather than talking about putting up a fence, why dont we work out some recognition of our mutual problems? Make it possible for them to come here legally with a work permitand then while theyre working and earning here, they pay taxes here. And when they want to go back, they can go back. And open the border both ways by understanding their problems.
Then what do you (Tim you) do with the ones who can't be bothered to get the work permit?
The same that we do with anyone who doesn't have a permit: fine them.
To what extent? That it will actually alter their behavior? Or just as a "motion" so you can say you are doing "something" even if it has no real teeth to it?
 
timschochet said:
All of the GOP candidates claim to revere Ronald Reagan. Perhaps they should have paid more attention to the Gipper's thoughts on illegal immigration. For instance:

Rather than talking about putting up a fence, why dont we work out some recognition of our mutual problems? Make it possible for them to come here legally with a work permitand then while theyre working and earning here, they pay taxes here. And when they want to go back, they can go back. And open the border both ways by understanding their problems.
Then what do you (Tim you) do with the ones who can't be bothered to get the work permit?
The same that we do with anyone who doesn't have a permit: fine them.
To what extent? That it will actually alter their behavior? Or just as a "motion" so you can say you are doing "something" even if it has no real teeth to it?
Well any fine is designed to alter behavior. So this one should be too. I don't know how much it should be. Of course this is all a moot discussion, because sadly we'll never have the sort of legal free flow of immigrants that Reagan envisaged. But we should.

 
I have never understood why building the fence is considered an anti-immigrant position. Building the fence and securing the border is a matter of national security. You can easily support a secure border and a more open legal immigration framework. You can easily support stricter enforcement of current immigration laws while proposing laws that make it easier to come here legally or even a path to amnesty for those already here (like Obama).
But even with amnesty and looser immigration laws, a fence on our southern border would be s powerful negative symbolic message to Mexico and Latin America that "we don't want you." It would also inhibit trade. In the end it would weaken, not strengthen, national security.
It wouldn't inhibit legal trade.

You are very willing to sacrifice privacy rights for security. I find it very disturbing that sending symbolic messages to other countries is a bigger concern than security for you.

Symbolic messages > Security >>>>>>>>>> Privacy

 
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I have never understood why building the fence is considered an anti-immigrant position. Building the fence and securing the border is a matter of national security. You can easily support a secure border and a more open legal immigration framework. You can easily support stricter enforcement of current immigration laws while proposing laws that make it easier to come here legally or even a path to amnesty for those already here (like Obama).
But even with amnesty and looser immigration laws, a fence on our southern border would be s powerful negative symbolic message to Mexico and Latin America that "we don't want you." It would also inhibit trade. In the end it would weaken, not strengthen, national security.
It wouldn't inhibit legal trade.

You are very willing to sacrifice privacy rights for security. I find it very disturbing that sending symbolic messages to other countries is a bigger concern than security for you.

Symbolic messages > Security >>>>>>>>>> Privacy
Thats an inaccurate portrayal of my position on the NSA, but I don't want to get into that, as it has nothing to do with this issue.
 
I have never understood why building the fence is considered an anti-immigrant position. Building the fence and securing the border is a matter of national security. You can easily support a secure border and a more open legal immigration framework. You can easily support stricter enforcement of current immigration laws while proposing laws that make it easier to come here legally or even a path to amnesty for those already here (like Obama).
But even with amnesty and looser immigration laws, a fence on our southern border would be s powerful negative symbolic message to Mexico and Latin America that "we don't want you." It would also inhibit trade. In the end it would weaken, not strengthen, national security.
It wouldn't inhibit legal trade.

You are very willing to sacrifice privacy rights for security. I find it very disturbing that sending symbolic messages to other countries is a bigger concern than security for you.

Symbolic messages > Security >>>>>>>>>> Privacy
Thats an inaccurate portrayal of my position on the NSA, but I don't want to get into that, as it has nothing to do with this issue.
No, its pretty damn accurate.

 
timschochet said:
All of the GOP candidates claim to revere Ronald Reagan. Perhaps they should have paid more attention to the Gipper's thoughts on illegal immigration. For instance:

Rather than talking about putting up a fence, why dont we work out some recognition of our mutual problems? Make it possible for them to come here legally with a work permitand then while theyre working and earning here, they pay taxes here. And when they want to go back, they can go back. And open the border both ways by understanding their problems.
Then what do you (Tim you) do with the ones who can't be bothered to get the work permit?
The same that we do with anyone who doesn't have a permit: fine them.
To what extent? That it will actually alter their behavior? Or just as a "motion" so you can say you are doing "something" even if it has no real teeth to it?
Well any fine is designed to alter behavior. So this one should be too. I don't know how much it should be.Of course this is all a moot discussion, because sadly we'll never have the sort of legal free flow of immigrants that Reagan envisaged. But we should.
Not true at all.

 
I have never understood why building the fence is considered an anti-immigrant position. Building the fence and securing the border is a matter of national security. You can easily support a secure border and a more open legal immigration framework. You can easily support stricter enforcement of current immigration laws while proposing laws that make it easier to come here legally or even a path to amnesty for those already here (like Obama).
I agree, the two issues really are distinct. - Personally, I'm not in favor of a fence. Maybe, as Obama suggested in 08, certain fencing in certain key spots could be a good idea. But building a wall up around our country sends the wrong message. However, the whole fence issue does raise the question of how we plan to enforce whatever law we're talking about. I don't see amnesty vs deportation or pathway to citizenship as that big of a deal (aside from anyone arguing we should haul immigrants out of their beds and home throw them into trucks etc.). No matter what we do, whatever everyone is arguing about, doesn't really matter if we cannot formulate a process for actually, physically regulating how many people come in total and from certain countries.

As far as I can tell Rubio is the only one who has really talked about that (aside from Trump) in terms of policy. I admit I may not be up on all the positions, but Rubio seems like a real compromise, pathway with real measures to enforce the border and regulate immigration.

 
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http://www.latinpost.com/articles/65407/20150710/if-elected-rubio-pledges-to-undo-cuba-rapprochement.htm

Republican presidential hopeful Marco Rubio has promised to "absolutely" reverse the rapprochement between the United States and Cuba if he were to move into the White House following the 2016 election, the Guardian reported.

The Florida senator renewed his criticism of President Barack Obama's steps to normalize relations with the Communist country, a move that culminated with the recently announced restoration of full diplomatic ties and imminent opening of embassies in Havana and Washington.

"In fact, I think (those steps were taken) in violation of the law," Rubio said during an interview he conceded the British newspaper in Iowa. "The statute passed by Congress specifically prohibits many of the things (Obama is) now undertaking. It says those things can only happen after certain conditions have been met, none of which have been met. As president, I will follow the law," the senator added.

In an op-ed written for the New York Times, the son of Cuban immigrants had sharply attacked Obama over the weekend and called out what he deemed the president's "Faustian bargain" with the island nation's Communist regime.

"The only people who are responsible for the Cuban people's woes are their geriatric rulers, who insist on maintaining a socialist economy that almost all other countries," Rubio wrote in reference to Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro and his brother, Raúl Castro, the nation's current president.

"These dictators ... deny their people access to the Internet ... direct the security services that terrorize and harass any citizen who dares speak up (and) imprison people who attempt to defy the system. (And) Mr. Obama's outreach has done nothing to change any of this," the senator insisted.

 
http://www.latinpost.com/articles/65407/20150710/if-elected-rubio-pledges-to-undo-cuba-rapprochement.htm

Republican presidential hopeful Marco Rubio has promised to "absolutely" reverse the rapprochement between the United States and Cuba if he were to move into the White House following the 2016 election, the Guardian reported.

The Florida senator renewed his criticism of President Barack Obama's steps to normalize relations with the Communist country, a move that culminated with the recently announced restoration of full diplomatic ties and imminent opening of embassies in Havana and Washington.

"In fact, I think (those steps were taken) in violation of the law," Rubio said during an interview he conceded the British newspaper in Iowa. "The statute passed by Congress specifically prohibits many of the things (Obama is) now undertaking. It says those things can only happen after certain conditions have been met, none of which have been met. As president, I will follow the law," the senator added.

In an op-ed written for the New York Times, the son of Cuban immigrants had sharply attacked Obama over the weekend and called out what he deemed the president's "Faustian bargain" with the island nation's Communist regime.

"The only people who are responsible for the Cuban people's woes are their geriatric rulers, who insist on maintaining a socialist economy that almost all other countries," Rubio wrote in reference to Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro and his brother, Raúl Castro, the nation's current president.

"These dictators ... deny their people access to the Internet ... direct the security services that terrorize and harass any citizen who dares speak up (and) imprison people who attempt to defy the system. (And) Mr. Obama's outreach has done nothing to change any of this," the senator insisted.
Does this guy's moral outrage extend to Saudi Arabia?

Republicans insist upon fighting the losingest losing battles.

 
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What strikes me is that it's going to be difficult for them (the Republican candidates) to put forth a forward vision if everything they promise is negative.

Repeal Obamacare

Repeal gay marriage

Repeal the deal with Iran

Repeal negotiations with Cuba

Repeal Obama's executive orders on immigration

Everything they're offering is moving backwards. That will make the base happy, but do the American people want to keep having these fights over and over?

 
They should make the GOP nomination process a reality TV show along the lines of The Bachelorette. A bunch of available guys desperately trying to outdo each other for attention.

 
Donald Trump storms Phoenix

Arizona speech draws protesters and thousands of cheering supporters.

By Ben Schreckinger

7/11/15 7:57 PM EDT

PHOENIX, Ariz. — Most other candidates would have folded. Some might have doubled down. On Saturday, Donald Trump tripled down.

After refusing to back off during weeks of fierce backlash for his comments about the alleged criminality of undocumented Mexican immigrants, Trump met on Friday in Beverly Hills with the families of people killed by such immigrants. A day later, he came to Arizona and said, “We have to stop illegal immigration. We have to. We have to,” to the cheers of 4,000 supporters.

On Monday, RNC Chairman Reince Preibus called Trump to congratulate him on his success and reportedly ask him to “tone it down.”

But Donald Trump only tones it in one direction: up.

“I love the Mexican people … I respect Mexico … but the problem we have is that their leaders are much sharper, smarter and more cunning than our leaders, and they’re killing us at the border,” said Trump, in front of a giant American flag at the Saturday afternoon rally at the Phoenix convention center. He added, “They’re taking our jobs. They’re taking our manufacturing jobs. They’re taking our money. They’re killing us.”

At one point, Trump brought a man named Jamiel Shaw up to the podium to talk about his late son, explaining, “an illegal immigrant shot him violently.” Atlantic Council's offices in Washington, Wednesday, July 8, 2015. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Trump also said that he supports legal immigrants. “They flow in like water, and I love legal immigration. I love it,” he said. “We should make it easier, and faster.”

“This crowd today blows away anything that Bernie Sanders has gotten,” Trump said (10,000 people recently came out to cheer Sanders in Madison, Wisconsin).

He compared himself favorably to other moguls like Martha Stewart and Richard Branson, mocked the brands that cut ties with him, and called out “lyin’ Brian Williams” and much of the rest of the news media.

He assured his supporters, “I’m, like, a really smart person.”

And he vowed to be politically effective. “I know the system better than anybody. I’m a donor,” he said. “Of course I give to Democrats, I want to get things done … They all loved me. They don’t love me so much anymore.”

Trump concluded by declaring, “The silent majority is back, and we’re going to take the majority back, and we are going to make America great again.”

Ahead of the event, John McCain called Trump’s immigration comments “offensive.” Arizona’s other Republican senator, Jeff Flake, called his views “coarse, ill-informed and inaccurate.” News outlets and fact-checkers pointed out that Trump’s assertion — that the undocumented immigrants coming from Mexico are that country’s criminal element — appears to be flat wrong.

But while the press and the party condemn Trump’s rhetoric, many voters are eating it up. When Trump mentioned McCain, the crowd booed.

People who showed up for the event said that, like them, Trump is a straight-talker. They ascribed their enthusiasm, in some cases devotion, to their conviction that Trump alone has the courage to say what other politicians believe (and at least when Trump looked out at the scene and declared,“This is absolutely unbelievable,” they were probably right).

Hazel Powell, 68, said she is happy for the first time in seven years because of Trump’s candidacy. After President Obama’s election, she went into self-exile in Bulgaria, where she taught English for two years in the Peace Corps. “I was depressed every day,” said Powell, wearing a cowboy hat, American flag nail polish, American flag cowboy boots, and a shirt that said, “Arrest Obama.”

“He just seems to have things clear in his head,” said Powell of Trump. “I just hope he keeps it up because I’m happy now. He’s done a number on me and many other people, emotionally.”

“He says what he means like I do. He’s not wishy-washy,” said Joan Rosicki, 67, of Phoenix. “He’s for the people. It doesn’t matter if you’re male or female. He also is for the Spanish people. I am, too. We just don’t like the lawlessness.”

She said she had been a fan of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie until he took a helicopter ride with, and hugged, President Obama in the wake of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Of the president, she said, “he wants to be a dictator. I don’t know if he’s ever going to leave. My friends all told me he has to because of the First Amendment.”

A spokeswoman for Trump said 10,000 people had signed up for free tickets (those tickets were spotted being sold on Craigslist for $100). The ballroom’s maximum occupancy was 2,158. A convention center event staffer said the fire marshall had agreed to allow twice that number inside and estimated that at least 1,000 more people would be left out in the sun.

When the door opened to let supporters into the ballroom, the first wave ran in, creating a miniature stampede.

Diane Brest, the first person in line an hour before Trump’s scheduled 2 p.m. arrival, said she had been waiting there since 4:45 a.m. “You want to make sure you get in the door,” said the transplant from New York, clutching a red Solo cup. As she spoke, security broke up a scuffle that had broken out between two men behind her over their places in line.

In a YouGov/Economist online poll released on Thursday, Trump led the Republican field with 15 percent support, four points ahead of both Jeb Bush and Rand Paul. His lead was even greater when the poll tabulated respondents’ first- and second-choice candidates.

Trump chose his Saturday venue well. In Arizona, home to some of the most fervent opposition to illegal immigration in the country, even some political leaders had his back. “Trump is kind of telling it like it really, truly is,” said the state’s former governor, Jan Brewer, who supported some of the country’s strictest and most controversial anti-immigration efforts in office, ahead of his visit.

Protesters await Donald Trump's arrival at the Phoenix event. | Ben Schreckinger/POLITICO

Joe Arpaio, the sheriff of Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, spoke before Trump arrived. Arpaio has earned national notoriety for his aggressive approach to targeting undocumented immigrants. In 2013 a federal court found him guilty of racial profiling — the Justice Department concluded in 2011 that he oversaw the worst pattern of racial profiling by a law enforcement agency in the nation’s history — and he’s been accused of abuse of power and violating election laws.

Arpaio drew loud cheers, saying that both he and Trump had questioned Obama’s citizenship and taken on “the illegal immigration problem,” and that they shared a birthday — June 14.

Trump drew scores of protesters as well. Dozens of them erupted in shouts of “stop the racism” inside the ballroom during his speech, before being booed and shouted down with chants of “U.S.A! U.S.A!” and escorted out by security.

“He’s not fit to be president. To me, he’s just a big clown” said Tom Malejo, 67, outside the event, clutching a sign with Trump’s face that said “Arizona rejects your racism.”

A gray-haired white man in line for Trump cupped his hands over his mouth and shouted at Malejo and a companion, “Vamos por Mexico.”

Around the corner, another protester, dressed as the devil, yelled, “I’m the devil! I support Donald Trump!”

 
It IS entertaining, but it's also depressing and a little scary- not Trump, but the people that approve of his rhetoric and how they have come to dominate this once great political party. In that sense (and ONLY in that sense) it's reminscent of Joe McCarthy.

 
It IS entertaining, but it's also depressing and a little scary- not Trump, but the people that approve of his rhetoric and how they have come to dominate this once great political party. In that sense (and ONLY in that sense) it's reminscent of Joe McCarthy.
Are these people any more "scary" than those who like things the way they are in Washington and want to keep them as they are?

 
So Lindsay Graham went on CNN to talk about Trump and say the GOP should stop talking about Trump. His supporters (all ten of them) mus have been :doh:

 
It IS entertaining, but it's also depressing and a little scary- not Trump, but the people that approve of his rhetoric and how they have come to dominate this once great political party. In that sense (and ONLY in that sense) it's reminscent of Joe McCarthy.
McCarthy never could have been a national candidate much less a leading one. This is more like Huey Long, especially the clown/buffoon routine.

 
It IS entertaining, but it's also depressing and a little scary- not Trump, but the people that approve of his rhetoric and how they have come to dominate this once great political party. In that sense (and ONLY in that sense) it's reminscent of Joe McCarthy.
McCarthy never could have been a national candidate much less a leading one. This is more like Huey Long, especially the clown/buffoon routine.
Neither is a great analogy but McCarthy is closer in that he appealed to a fear and lack of reason among ordinary Americans- in his case, about Communists within American society, in Trumps case about illegal immigrants.
 
It IS entertaining, but it's also depressing and a little scary- not Trump, but the people that approve of his rhetoric and how they have come to dominate this once great political party. In that sense (and ONLY in that sense) it's reminscent of Joe McCarthy.
Are these people any more "scary" than those who like things the way they are in Washington and want to keep them as they are?
I see this is meant as a jab at me. If so you misunderstand me. I do want to see change in Washington, but moderate, gradual, rational improvements. I am opposed to populist change which is emotional and irrational (and dangerous).
 
Two totally different things, McCarthy was talking ideological conspiracies, the only one spouting anything close to that today is Hillary. Trump is tapping popular discontent and it's touching both parties, and the fact he's clowning while doing is out of Huey's playbook. He's talking over both parties' heads. I do agree with you that it's more dangerous and electable than people are crediting right now.

 
Two totally different things, McCarthy was talking ideological conspiracies, the only one spouting anything close to that today is Hillary. Trump is tapping popular discontent and it's touching both parties, and the fact he's clowning while doing is out of Huey's playbook. He's talking over both parties' heads. I do agree with you that it's more dangerous and electable than people are crediting right now.
I think I'll stick with my own analogy, loose as it is. Huey was certainly clownish but didn't make polarizing or hateful comments the way Trump does. Huey's populism was more economic, the haves vs have-nots. Closer to Bernie than to Donald (though Huey was corrupt and Bernie isn't.) Your comparison of Hillary to Joe, which you keep making, is really rather silly IMO.

 
Well you don't know Huey, or his brother, Earl, they used race, religion and of course class in extremely divisive and hateful ways. It's the closest we've come to fascism.

 
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It IS entertaining, but it's also depressing and a little scary- not Trump, but the people that approve of his rhetoric and how they have come to dominate this once great political party. In that sense (and ONLY in that sense) it's reminscent of Joe McCarthy.
Are these people any more "scary" than those who like things the way they are in Washington and want to keep them as they are?
I see this is meant as a jab at me. If so you misunderstand me. I do want to see change in Washington, but moderate, gradual, rational improvements. I am opposed to populist change which is emotional and irrational (and dangerous).
Stop with this....it's tiresome. Especially when you say "I want things to stay as they are" then tell me that I "misunderstand" you because it's not what you mean even though it's exactly what you say.

 
After Walker announces next up is Kasich and Gilmore. That will make the field 17. That is pretty awesome.

 
Walker finally announces. Seems a little late for him but he's still in the top tier. Leading in Iowa.
I'm sure it was strategy (related to super-pac type stuff) but the fact of Trump taking so much space up is surely not something he anticipated. Monday annoucement clearly was designed to make this a momentum week. Will be interesting if that happens less now b/c of the Donald.

-QG

 
Monmouth national Poll released this morning:

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d56c8128-f211-4a0e-a413-f4716c83cf65.pdf

Unsure 18%

Jeb Bush 15%

Donald Trump 13%

Ted Cruz 9%

Scott Walker 7%

Mike Huckabee 7%

Marco Rubio 6%

Ben Carson 6%

Rand Paul 6%

Rick Perry 2%

Chris Christie 2%

Bobby Jindal 2%

Rick Santorum 2%

Carly Fiorina 1%

John Kasich 1%

Lindsay Graham 0.5%

George Pataki 0.5%

Jim Gilmore 0%

Some thoughts:

1. Bush, Trump, Cruz, Walker, Huckabee, Rubio, Carson, and Paul all get into the debate- that's 8. But who makes up the other 2? Right now, Perry, Christie, Jindal, and Santorum are tied at 2% each, with Fiorina, Kasich, Graham, Pataki, and Gilmore all looking in. Personally I would like to see Christie and Kasich get in that debate, but they're going to have to raise their poll numbers in a month and I don't know if that happens.

2. Jeb may feel confident on top with 15%, but the question becomes, as people drop out, how many voters will switch over to him? For instance, Cruz, Trump, Huckabee, Carson, Perry, Jindal, and Santorum are all drawing from the same group of voters- the conservative base of the party. Between them they have 41% of the vote. If they can unify behind one candidate (for example, Scott Walker,) that candidate wins. In order to prevent that from happening, Jeb needs some or all of these guys to stay in the race. So while Donald Trump is hurting the GOP in general, he may be helping out Bush in particular.

 
Walker's speech... talking point after talking point.

Not sure if it will get picked apart much but he is talking about too much "fighting" too much "religion" for my liking. I'm hopeful he gets the nomination cause he will get picked apart during the debates. While he is not giving much substance in this "talk" he is not separating himself from anyone.

Different person, same fluff.

 
Actually I heard a radio interview with Walker and I was quite impressed. He sounds 100 times better than he did when he first became governor- I thought he was really dull back then but he's become a much improved speaker. I still think he has a very good shot to be the nominee- and President.

 
Actually I heard a radio interview with Walker and I was quite impressed. He sounds 100 times better than he did when he first became governor- I thought he was really dull back then but he's become a much improved speaker. I still think he has a very good shot to be the nominee- and President.
Quit toying with us. Hillary has already won.

 
Actually I heard a radio interview with Walker and I was quite impressed. He sounds 100 times better than he did when he first became governor- I thought he was really dull back then but he's become a much improved speaker. I still think he has a very good shot to be the nominee- and President.
He will get destroyed in any debate with someone savvy.

 

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