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Official 2016 GOP thread: Is it really going to be Donald Trump?? (2 Viewers)

The latest Iowa polling has Walker slightly ahead of Huckabee and Cruz, with Bush and Rubio way down the list.

I don't believe that Bush or Rubio (or Christie) has any chance of winning Iowa. They "win" Iowa so long as Walker does not win Iowa. As I see it, Walker remains the one conservative choice in the race who could challenge one of the two or three establishment candidates. But Walker, in order to do this, has to win Iowa and unify the conservative vote.

If Huckabee or Cruz win Iowa, then the rest of the country's Republicans will panic and select one of the establishment guys, whoever wins New Hampshire or Florida- Bush or Rubio, with Christie an outside shot. (That's how McCain won in 2008). If Walker wins, it's a whole new ballgame- conservatives will be energized because they have a real candidate for the first time in years, and we'll see a repeat of 1964.
How is Wlker a more real candidate than McCain or even Mitt?
Conservatives did not perceive McCain or Mitt as truly one of their own.
 
I want to explain why I respect Scott Walker so much, despite the fact that I disagree with him politically:

For several decades now, Republican politicians have been promising their conservative base that once in office they would confront the teachers' unions. It's a key part of modern conservative ideology that teachers' unions get in the way of improving education by insisting on tenure, high pensions, and collective bargaining. They also are a major support for the Democratic party. Personally, I completely disagree with this point of view, but it is prevalent. And collective bargaining, conservatives believe, is the key to the rest of it.

Anyhow, Republicans have been making this promise for decades, but when they get into office, they do nothing about it. It's too difficult; the teachers' unions are powerful, nobody wants the bad press. And conservatives have been angry and frustrated.

Scott Walker made the same promise- and within a few months after taking office, he kept it. He immediately confronted the teachers' unions and pushed through a bill ending collective bargaining. The results were predictable: mass protests. The pillaging of Walker across the country. He became, for a short while, conservative enemy #1. (This stopped when Democrats realized that all of the attention was only adding to his support.)

You have to give Walker credit for that. Afterwards, lots of other conservative politicians talked about how they would have done the same thing. But before he did it, nobody else had. Here is a politician who does what he promises to do, and gets things done. I could never vote for the guy, not just for this reason, but for several others. But if I were a member of the conservative base in this country, this is the first man I would support in any election.

 
I want to explain why I respect Scott Walker so much, despite the fact that I disagree with him politically:

For several decades now, Republican politicians have been promising their conservative base that once in office they would confront the teachers' unions. It's a key part of modern conservative ideology that teachers' unions get in the way of improving education by insisting on tenure, high pensions, and collective bargaining. They also are a major support for the Democratic party. Personally, I completely disagree with this point of view, but it is prevalent. And collective bargaining, conservatives believe, is the key to the rest of it.

Anyhow, Republicans have been making this promise for decades, but when they get into office, they do nothing about it. It's too difficult; the teachers' unions are powerful, nobody wants the bad press. And conservatives have been angry and frustrated.

Scott Walker made the same promise- and within a few months after taking office, he kept it. He immediately confronted the teachers' unions and pushed through a bill ending collective bargaining. The results were predictable: mass protests. The pillaging of Walker across the country. He became, for a short while, conservative enemy #1. (This stopped when Democrats realized that all of the attention was only adding to his support.)

You have to give Walker credit for that. Afterwards, lots of other conservative politicians talked about how they would have done the same thing. But before he did it, nobody else had. Here is a politician who does what he promises to do, and gets things done. I could never vote for the guy, not just for this reason, but for several others. But if I were a member of the conservative base in this country, this is the first man I would support in any election.
I give him credit for that and some fiscal issues. However...the manner in which is pushed things through will come up (especially with how people on the right complained about how Obamacare got pushed through).

I just also think the cry from the right on foreign policy experience will hurt him. The have brought it up as a big issue to tear down other candidates on the left...but will look the other way with their own guy.

I just don't have a great opinion about him other than some of his fiscal successes in the state.

 
Walker is behind Hillary in his own state, while Rubio (and perhaps Bush) would beat Hillary in Florida. Walker may be perceived as a one-horse pony, especially if he continues to make silly statements about foreign affairs. The democrats seem to fear Rubio- I'm not sure they even have Walker on their radar. Maybe Walker goes the route of Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012.

 
I want to explain why I respect Scott Walker so much, despite the fact that I disagree with him politically:

For several decades now, Republican politicians have been promising their conservative base that once in office they would confront the teachers' unions. It's a key part of modern conservative ideology that teachers' unions get in the way of improving education by insisting on tenure, high pensions, and collective bargaining. They also are a major support for the Democratic party. Personally, I completely disagree with this point of view, but it is prevalent. And collective bargaining, conservatives believe, is the key to the rest of it.

Anyhow, Republicans have been making this promise for decades, but when they get into office, they do nothing about it. It's too difficult; the teachers' unions are powerful, nobody wants the bad press. And conservatives have been angry and frustrated.

Scott Walker made the same promise- and within a few months after taking office, he kept it. He immediately confronted the teachers' unions and pushed through a bill ending collective bargaining. The results were predictable: mass protests. The pillaging of Walker across the country. He became, for a short while, conservative enemy #1. (This stopped when Democrats realized that all of the attention was only adding to his support.)

You have to give Walker credit for that. Afterwards, lots of other conservative politicians talked about how they would have done the same thing. But before he did it, nobody else had. Here is a politician who does what he promises to do, and gets things done. I could never vote for the guy, not just for this reason, but for several others. But if I were a member of the conservative base in this country, this is the first man I would support in any election.
I give him credit for that and some fiscal issues. However...the manner in which is pushed things through will come up (especially with how people on the right complained about how Obamacare got pushed through).

I just also think the cry from the right on foreign policy experience will hurt him. The have brought it up as a big issue to tear down other candidates on the left...but will look the other way with their own guy.

I just don't have a great opinion about him other than some of his fiscal successes in the state.
Most governors have fiscal success, since deficits aren't allowed in most states. Also, all of the mid-west states are doing very well economically and Minnesota,with a democrat as governor, is doing even better then Wisconsin. If there is truly a cry from the right on foreign policy experience, he won't be the nominee.

 
As much as I am a fiscal conservative...I put foreign policy even higher right now.

I put more of the fiscal issues on congress than the President anyway...and it won't matter who is in office if they can't work with Congress on fiscal issues.

 
Well Graham is likely getting in. That makes:

Bush - FL

Carson - MI

Christie - maybe/likely - NJ

Cruz - TX

Everson - DC

Fiorina - CA

Graham - SC

Huckabee - AR

Jindal - likely - LA

Kasich - OH

Pataki - NY

Paul - KY

Perry - TX

Rubio - FL

Santorum - PA

Trump - NY

Walker - WI

- That makes 17, from all over the country. That is incredible.

Anyone have any theories why so many are running?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Well Graham is likely getting in. That makes:

Bush - FL

Carson - MI

Christie - maybe/likely - NJ

Cruz - TX

Everson - DC

Fiorina - CA

Graham - SC

Huckabee - AR

Jindal - likely - LA

Kasich - OH

Pataki - NY

Paul - KY

Perry - TX

Rubio - FL

Santorum - PA

Trump - NY

Walker - WI

- That makes 17, from all over the country. That is incredible.

Anyone have any theories why so many are running?
It's essentially a FoxNews interview.

 
Scott Walker on forcing all pregnant women to have sonograms: "Sonograms are cool".

He really ought to stay away from this stuff.

 
Scott Walker on forcing all pregnant women to have sonograms: "Sonograms are cool".

He really ought to stay away from this stuff.
I think I saw a poll recently where Walker is ahead in IA. What is the fascination with Walker? Is he just well known because of the public union fight in WI, or maybe because WI is semi-near IA?

 
Scott Walker on forcing all pregnant women to have sonograms: "Sonograms are cool".

He really ought to stay away from this stuff.
Why? That's his position, I'm glad he's owning it.

It's essentially exhibit A exposing the hypocrisy of current "small govt" Republicans. They want govt out of the way, except when it's govt they like.

 
Yes, the contrast of Dayton's economic success in Minnesota versus Walker's troubles in Wisconsin actively erodes this myth that Walker is some kind of fiscal genius. Paul Ryan got exposed in this same arena from the same backyard, and it won't take long for people to dismiss Walker on that subject. He's got a lot of other kooky ideas that people can sink their teeth into. It should be a fun election cycle.

 
Scott Walker on forcing all pregnant women to have sonograms: "Sonograms are cool".

He really ought to stay away from this stuff.
Why? That's his position, I'm glad he's owning it.

It's essentially exhibit A exposing the hypocrisy of current "small govt" Republicans. They want govt out of the way, except when it's govt they like.
I'm speaking politically. It doesn't help him at all.

I continue to believe that Walker is the only viable Republican candidate who can "bridge the gap": gain the enthusiasm of the base and the support of the Establishment. All of the other candidates represent an "either-or"- you gain the Establishment, but you lose the base, or vice-versa. Rubio might have bridged the gap but the base doesn't trust him over immigration. Walker is the first real conservative candidate with a chance to win since Reagan.

But it's a hard row to hoe. He has to be careful and avoid controversies like this one. So far he's blowing it.

 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/another-tortured-effort-by-the-gop-to-help-itself-with-minorities/2015/06/01/2724263e-08ac-11e5-9e39-0db921c47b93_story.html

The press release went out last week:

“Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, will participate in a panel discussion luncheon in celebration of Black Music Month on Monday, June 1st, in Washington, D.C.”

The event was called “A Republican Salute to Black Music Month” and, according to organizer Raynard Jackson, a black Republican consultant, was to include R&B legend Sam Moore (“Soul Man”), Marlon Jackson of the Jackson 5 and others.

The Republican chairman, a Greek-German Wisconsinite, sharing a stage with legends of soul and funk? Pure gold! But somebody missed his cue.

Moore, Marlon Jackson and the others showed up. But among the “confirmed participants,” Priebus was the sole man missing. And there was nobody from the RNC to take his place.


“Reince Priebus was scheduled to be here,” Raynard Jackson explained to guests at the posh University Club. The host said Priebus sent regrets because he’d had surgery on Friday and was having difficulty talking. “He’s sore as heck,” Jackson explained. Jackson told me Priebus had confirmed his attendance Friday but wasn’t feeling as well as he’d hoped on Monday — and by then it was too late for the RNC to find a stand-in.

But an RNC official told me that Priebus’s surgery Friday had been scheduled, elective and outpatient and that the chairman was doing fine. The official said Priebus had never formally committed to attend the black-music event.

Whatever the cause of the chairman’s absence, it would be unfair to say there was widespread disappointment, because attendance itself was not widespread. The organizers had warned of the “limited number of seats available to the general public,” but half of the 50-odd place settings in the room were unused. Rather than a Republican salute to black music, this was a limp handshake.

The reception was the latest of many tortured efforts by Republicans to improve their standing with racial minorities. Six years ago, then-RNC Chairman Michael Steele, who is African American, pledged an “off the hook” effort to reach out to young and minority voters in “hip-hop settings.” But Steele was soon off the hook at the RNC.

Priebus redoubled the party’s efforts to reach minorities after the 2012 election, in which President Obama took 93 percent of the black vote. If the party doesn’t improve its standing with racial minorities, particularly with the fast-growing Latino population, it will gradually become irrelevant — a topic that came up at Monday’s lunch

“Is it clear to the GOP that its greatest hurdle is you don’t look like the rest of the country?” one man, an African American, asked the political-musical panel. “All these years of the population growing and you still look like you did 40 years ago. What’s the problem?”

Here’s one problem: The panelists saw fit to praise the contributions of the late Lee Atwater, the Republican operative who made Willie Horton a household name in the racially tinged 1988 campaign.


“Lee was defined as a racist, and I almost bought into it,” Moore said. “And the man turned out to be a wonderful person. Now does that mean that he wasn’t [racist]? I have no idea and I don’t care, because he didn’t treat me any different from how he would have treated any white person.”

Moore’s wife, Joyce, also on the panel, added her view: “I believe that if Lee hadn’t gotten a brain tumor and died, things would have been very, very different very much sooner with the Republican Party” and minorities.

Consultant Jackson asked musician Jackson what the Republican Party could do to improve its racial image — and the singer begged off. “I’m not a Democrat and I’m not a Republican,” he explained.

Another panelist, music producer Carvin Haggins, offered the novel view that African Americans quit the Republican Party because of Watergate (and not, say, Barry Goldwater or the civil rights movement). The Democratic Party, he said, “is the slave master’s party.” He explained: “Instead of leaving my plantation and making it on your own, stay here and we’ll feed you and we’ll give you health care.”

Priebus’s decision to skip the event was looking particularly good at this moment.

Raynard Jackson offered a defense, of sorts, of the absent chairman. “When I first met him I thought he was a chicken, but when I got to know him and I became friends with him I think he’s a pig now,” Jackson said. “For a chicken to lay eggs, that doesn’t mean anything. But when you ask a pig for bacon, that’s a total commitment. And see, most Republican chairmen have laid eggs in the black community. . . . He’s my pig. He’s made a total commitment.”

Except when asked to salute Black Music Month.

 
On a semiserious note about the GOP and the black vote, I'm going to guess or if IIRC the GOP share of the black vote in 2008 & 2012 was like 3-4%? - Amazingly George Bush Jr. actually did sort of relatively decently, like 8% or so. I am not so sure Hillary comes close to inspiring black turnout like Obama and I'm also not sure she does as well with the demo. If there is lower AA turnout and a higher share, even if just a handful of points, that's important for the GOP, especially in VA, OH, NC and likely a couple other places.

 
On a semiserious note about the GOP and the black vote, I'm going to guess or if IIRC the GOP share of the black vote in 2008 & 2012 was like 3-4%? - Amazingly George Bush Jr. actually did sort of relatively decently, like 8% or so. I am not so sure Hillary comes close to inspiring black turnout like Obama and I'm also not sure she does as well with the demo. If there is lower AA turnout and a higher share, even if just a handful of points, that's important for the GOP, especially in VA, OH, NC and likely a couple other places.
Dole got around 12% and Bill was very well liked among AA. I would say going back to 8-10% is definitely possible.

 
http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/02/politics/mike-huckabee-transgender-caitlyn-jenner/

Huckabee wishes he could've identified as female in high school gym

By Eric Bradner, CNN

Washington (CNN)Mike Huckabee says there's a time he wishes he could've been transgender: When it was time to hit the high school showers.

If he "could have felt like a woman," the Republican former Arkansas governor said earlier this year, then he could have seen his female classmates without their clothes on.

"Now I wish that someone told me that when I was in high school that I could have felt like a woman when it came time to take showers in PE," Huckabee said.

"I'm pretty sure that I would have found my feminine side and said, 'Coach, I think I'd rather shower with the girls today.' You're laughing because it sounds so ridiculous doesn't it?"

Huckabee's comments came in February at the 2015 National Religious Broadcasters Convention in Nashville, Tennessee. They were uploaded to YouTube over the weekend by World Net Daily and picked up more prominently by BuzzFeed on Tuesday.

A Huckabee spokeswoman did not respond to CNN's request for a comment on those remarks.

 
http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/02/politics/mike-huckabee-transgender-caitlyn-jenner/

Huckabee wishes he could've identified as female in high school gym

By Eric Bradner, CNN

Washington (CNN)Mike Huckabee says there's a time he wishes he could've been transgender: When it was time to hit the high school showers.

If he "could have felt like a woman," the Republican former Arkansas governor said earlier this year, then he could have seen his female classmates without their clothes on.

"Now I wish that someone told me that when I was in high school that I could have felt like a woman when it came time to take showers in PE," Huckabee said.

"I'm pretty sure that I would have found my feminine side and said, 'Coach, I think I'd rather shower with the girls today.' You're laughing because it sounds so ridiculous doesn't it?"

Huckabee's comments came in February at the 2015 National Religious Broadcasters Convention in Nashville, Tennessee. They were uploaded to YouTube over the weekend by World Net Daily and picked up more prominently by BuzzFeed on Tuesday.

A Huckabee spokeswoman did not respond to CNN's request for a comment on those remarks.
Ah yes, when evangelicals joke about sex.... what could possibly go wrong...

 
http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/02/politics/mike-huckabee-transgender-caitlyn-jenner/

Huckabee wishes he could've identified as female in high school gym

By Eric Bradner, CNN

Washington (CNN)Mike Huckabee says there's a time he wishes he could've been transgender: When it was time to hit the high school showers.

If he "could have felt like a woman," the Republican former Arkansas governor said earlier this year, then he could have seen his female classmates without their clothes on.

"Now I wish that someone told me that when I was in high school that I could have felt like a woman when it came time to take showers in PE," Huckabee said.

"I'm pretty sure that I would have found my feminine side and said, 'Coach, I think I'd rather shower with the girls today.' You're laughing because it sounds so ridiculous doesn't it?"

Huckabee's comments came in February at the 2015 National Religious Broadcasters Convention in Nashville, Tennessee. They were uploaded to YouTube over the weekend by World Net Daily and picked up more prominently by BuzzFeed on Tuesday.

A Huckabee spokeswoman did not respond to CNN's request for a comment on those remarks.
I doubt this will have any impact on his odds of becoming president.

 
http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/02/politics/mike-huckabee-transgender-caitlyn-jenner/

Huckabee wishes he could've identified as female in high school gym

By Eric Bradner, CNN

Washington (CNN)Mike Huckabee says there's a time he wishes he could've been transgender: When it was time to hit the high school showers.

If he "could have felt like a woman," the Republican former Arkansas governor said earlier this year, then he could have seen his female classmates without their clothes on.

"Now I wish that someone told me that when I was in high school that I could have felt like a woman when it came time to take showers in PE," Huckabee said.

"I'm pretty sure that I would have found my feminine side and said, 'Coach, I think I'd rather shower with the girls today.' You're laughing because it sounds so ridiculous doesn't it?"

Huckabee's comments came in February at the 2015 National Religious Broadcasters Convention in Nashville, Tennessee. They were uploaded to YouTube over the weekend by World Net Daily and picked up more prominently by BuzzFeed on Tuesday.

A Huckabee spokeswoman did not respond to CNN's request for a comment on those remarks.
I doubt this will have any impact on his odds of becoming president.
I doubt he will become President

 
http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/02/politics/mike-huckabee-transgender-caitlyn-jenner/

Huckabee wishes he could've identified as female in high school gym

By Eric Bradner, CNN

Washington (CNN)Mike Huckabee says there's a time he wishes he could've been transgender: When it was time to hit the high school showers.

If he "could have felt like a woman," the Republican former Arkansas governor said earlier this year, then he could have seen his female classmates without their clothes on.

"Now I wish that someone told me that when I was in high school that I could have felt like a woman when it came time to take showers in PE," Huckabee said.

"I'm pretty sure that I would have found my feminine side and said, 'Coach, I think I'd rather shower with the girls today.' You're laughing because it sounds so ridiculous doesn't it?"

Huckabee's comments came in February at the 2015 National Religious Broadcasters Convention in Nashville, Tennessee. They were uploaded to YouTube over the weekend by World Net Daily and picked up more prominently by BuzzFeed on Tuesday.

A Huckabee spokeswoman did not respond to CNN's request for a comment on those remarks.
I doubt this will have any impact on his odds of becoming president.
I doubt he will become President
I think we're on the same page here.

 
http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/02/politics/mike-huckabee-transgender-caitlyn-jenner/

Huckabee wishes he could've identified as female in high school gym

By Eric Bradner, CNN

Washington (CNN)Mike Huckabee says there's a time he wishes he could've been transgender: When it was time to hit the high school showers.

If he "could have felt like a woman," the Republican former Arkansas governor said earlier this year, then he could have seen his female classmates without their clothes on.

"Now I wish that someone told me that when I was in high school that I could have felt like a woman when it came time to take showers in PE," Huckabee said.

"I'm pretty sure that I would have found my feminine side and said, 'Coach, I think I'd rather shower with the girls today.' You're laughing because it sounds so ridiculous doesn't it?"

Huckabee's comments came in February at the 2015 National Religious Broadcasters Convention in Nashville, Tennessee. They were uploaded to YouTube over the weekend by World Net Daily and picked up more prominently by BuzzFeed on Tuesday.

A Huckabee spokeswoman did not respond to CNN's request for a comment on those remarks.
I doubt this will have any impact on his odds of becoming president.
I doubt he will become President
I think we're on the same page here.
:bag: sorry, you never can tell in this thread

 
On a more practical note http://www.thegreenpapers.com is a good site for tracking the primary calendar and delegate counts. Dates are still shuffling around. If I'm not mistaken all Republican primaries March 8th and earlier have to give delegates proportionately. March 9th and later they can be winner-take-all. (On the Democratic side every primary/caucus is proportional).

By my rough count about 1/2 of the states or so are March 8th or earlier. If there's no clarity in the race it's very possible that the lead candidate will be far from the required number once it gets to winner-take-all races. (I.E. it very well could be a dragged out fight)

-QG

 
And yes the Green Papers site has had the same format since like 1996. But it's a good info site for its purpose.

-QG

 
On a more practical note http://www.thegreenpapers.com is a good site for tracking the primary calendar and delegate counts. Dates are still shuffling around. If I'm not mistaken all Republican primaries March 8th and earlier have to give delegates proportionately. March 9th and later they can be winner-take-all. (On the Democratic side every primary/caucus is proportional).

By my rough count about 1/2 of the states or so are March 8th or earlier. If there's no clarity in the race it's very possible that the lead candidate will be far from the required number once it gets to winner-take-all races. (I.E. it very well could be a dragged out fight)

-QG
It would be interesting if it came down to some of the ones who don't really want to be president.

 

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