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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter chet
- Start date
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'd like to bite her bosom too.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Here's your field.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
I now think there will be a ton of speed in this race as Ocho Ocho Ocho drew #1 and Far Right #20 (been rank in works) and will be forced to go. It's going to get hot on the front end, and horses like Dortmund and American Pharoah, no matter how good, can't go too fast early or make a premature move. Otherwise this might set up for someone off the pace. I'm getting more interested in the Dubai horse with the 20-1 morning line - he's been 1 3/16 several times already so distance is no problem. Dortmund at 8 drew great, and American Pharoah at 18 is fine too (he's gonna have to rate though). So no real throwouts of good horses based on the draw.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses
I now think there will be a ton of speed in this race as Ocho Ocho Ocho drew #1 and Far Right #20 (been rank in works) and will be forced to go. It's going to get hot on the front end, and horses like Dortmund and American Pharoah, no matter how good, can't go too fast early or make a premature move. Otherwise this might set up for someone off the pace. I'm getting more interested in the Dubai horse with the 20-1 morning line - he's been 1 3/16 several times already so distance is no problem. Dortmund at 8 drew great, and American Pharoah at 18 is fine too (he's gonna have to rate though). So no real throwouts of good horses based on the draw.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Poor guy took so much heat for that. I couldn't even imagine trying to make out 20 horses, let alone with their colors covered in mud.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
What do you guys think about Carpe Diem getting the 2 hole?
-jb-
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
He's gotta ease his way into the race...really feel it out... and then, when the time is right, blast through for the win.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Bad draw for him...he's gotta fly to the front or get swallowed up. I don't think he's good enough to wire it and hasn't shown he can rate
I'm glad since I'm down on him anyway
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Love AP's draw. Go watch Big Brown in 2008 from 20
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Agree. I actually wasn't down on him and was beginning to think all the attention being lavished (rightly) on the Baffert horses was going to result in a decent price. Will very likely be the case now, but the draw really hurts his chances, so now I actually AM down on him.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
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BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
What are the thoughts of the Stanford horse? Seems like he has pretty good bloodlines and got a pretty favorable post position.
deacon14
Footballguy
I'd sure like him better in a shorter race, with a smaller field...but that ain't saying much. His paternal bloodlines are good, but his female family (2f) isn't so hot. I see him (like many in this field) being one of the "tiring rivals" being passed late.
My best analogy - think Chitu! Best upside comparison - Shackleford (4th in Derby - Preakness winner)
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Thanks, hoss.Dan Lambskin said:
Timmay
Footballguy
The more I look into 6-Mubtaahij, the more I like him. He seems to be able to run in any time of race thrown at him. Ran the distance before. Everything I've read shows that he seems to have shipped as best as possible, and is taking to the surface. Only things that worry me is his lack of competition in Dubai and not having Lasik.
Some quick early thoughts after the post draw on horses I used to like or still do like.
2. Carpe Diem-not as high on him as I once was, speed around him early scares me. Won't be using as much.
8. Dortmund-good post for his style and doesn't have much early speed around him. Liking him more and more. Thinking he will get out early without having to slow down like some people are scared of with him.
10. Firing Line-same as Dortmund in regards to post, Pedigree with stamina scares me off a little. Too much early speed for him?
15. Frosted-love his pedigree with stamina, I think his style will suit him well in this race against all the speed front runners. Like his post, I think 14. Keen Ice will lay off early and 16. War Story usually starts off slow and Frosted likes to run just off pace so should be out early before falling back to 5th-10th. Gets a bump from me.
18. American Pharoah-Has done nothing wrong in workouts, Front running style with all the other speed scares me, not bred for stamina. Not sure yet whether his price will be worth it.
19. Upstart-Keeps getting better, Early running style might be a problem, but I don't think the post position will be a factor.
6. Mubtaahij-see above.
Some quick early thoughts after the post draw on horses I used to like or still do like.
2. Carpe Diem-not as high on him as I once was, speed around him early scares me. Won't be using as much.
8. Dortmund-good post for his style and doesn't have much early speed around him. Liking him more and more. Thinking he will get out early without having to slow down like some people are scared of with him.
10. Firing Line-same as Dortmund in regards to post, Pedigree with stamina scares me off a little. Too much early speed for him?
15. Frosted-love his pedigree with stamina, I think his style will suit him well in this race against all the speed front runners. Like his post, I think 14. Keen Ice will lay off early and 16. War Story usually starts off slow and Frosted likes to run just off pace so should be out early before falling back to 5th-10th. Gets a bump from me.
18. American Pharoah-Has done nothing wrong in workouts, Front running style with all the other speed scares me, not bred for stamina. Not sure yet whether his price will be worth it.
19. Upstart-Keeps getting better, Early running style might be a problem, but I don't think the post position will be a factor.
6. Mubtaahij-see above.
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Thanks, Lammy.Dan Lambskin said:
Also, VOTTO!
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
I'm betting Ocho3.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Sorry good buddy - nice horse, but he's got zero chance. Better chance to finish dead last than win IMO.hum now ocho
bshell27
Footballguy
I suck at exotics, I am not good enough to throw a horse out and therefore include too many. Here is how I think the horses will place. Help me make this a simpler, less expensive bet.
1) 8, 10, 18
2) 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 15, 18, 19
3) 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19
Basically:
8, 10, 18 Win, Place (10 to show)
5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19 place, show
3, 7 show
1) 8, 10, 18
2) 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 15, 18, 19
3) 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19
Basically:
8, 10, 18 Win, Place (10 to show)
5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19 place, show
3, 7 show
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Just curious, you are tossing the 2, but not the 5? Danzig Moon (5) lost his last 2 races to Carpe Diem (2) by 3 and 12 lengths respectively. Not implying you are wrong, but would love to know your thought process here.
bshell27
Footballguy
Ha. There is no thought process. tossing 2 due to post draw. 5 has been training well (nothing negative about 2 in training). That's why I posted my thoughts. I need to get better and a lot of you are far better and more knowledgeable.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Never really liked Brisnet's forms vs. DRF. I have the full Derby Day Card in PDF form. PM me your email address if you want it. I'll send it over.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I don't see a huge difference between them other than different speed ratings...I'm just used to BRIS since that's what Spires offers
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I don't think that's unreasonable for a Derby tri
Just curious why no 8 or 18 in 3rd?
I can play around later to see if there's a more cost effective play here
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,18,20,19,8,9,17,16,15,10,11,12,13,14
bshell27
Footballguy
Like I said, I really am not good at exotics. I keyed them as win/place. Should they be in show?
bshell27
Footballguy
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Timmay
Footballguy
Just to clarify you are trying to do this?
8, 10, 18 with 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19 with 3, 7, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 15, 19
bshell27
Footballguy
deacon14
Footballguy
Using minimum wagers (except for the double play) these 62 Kentucky Oaks bets (25 exactas, 30 trifectas & 7 supers) can be made for $50. Assign any values you like.
Exactas
13 w 1,3,4,5,8,10,12,14
5 w 1,3,4,8,10,13,14
8 w 3,4,10,13,14
14 w 1,4,12
4 w 5,8
Trifectas
5,8,13 box (*double the bet*)
4 w 13 w 5,8,12
5 w 12 w 4,13,14
8 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 4 w 5,8,12
13 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 8 w 4,12,14
14 w 5 w 8,13
14 w 8 w 5,13
14 w 13 w 5,8
Superfectas
8 w 5 w 1,13 w 4
13 w 5 w 8 w 1,4,10,12,14
...and yes I know how to combine some of them, saving time in the teller lines
...Ticked that Jennifer Caldwell raved about the 13 on Kentuckyderby.com
Exactas
13 w 1,3,4,5,8,10,12,14
5 w 1,3,4,8,10,13,14
8 w 3,4,10,13,14
14 w 1,4,12
4 w 5,8
Trifectas
5,8,13 box (*double the bet*)
4 w 13 w 5,8,12
5 w 12 w 4,13,14
8 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 4 w 5,8,12
13 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 8 w 4,12,14
14 w 5 w 8,13
14 w 8 w 5,13
14 w 13 w 5,8
Superfectas
8 w 5 w 1,13 w 4
13 w 5 w 8 w 1,4,10,12,14
...and yes I know how to combine some of them, saving time in the teller lines
...Ticked that Jennifer Caldwell raved about the 13 on Kentuckyderby.com
Timmay
Footballguy
Your Tri is going to be pretty expensive. If you were to go the Exacta route: 8, 10, 18 with 8, 10, 5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 19. $2 Exacta is $44. $5 is $110. Not terrible, obviously Exactas wont pay as much as the tri though.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
On TwinSpires, how do you bet on the Derby? It's asking for my "track" but I don't see anything for the Derby. Keep in mind, I'm an idiot.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
2 days to go, first attempt to build a $100 ticket:
$25 WIN 8 (Dortmund)
$ 4 WIN 6 (Mubtaahij)
$5 EXA 8 over 6, 10 (Firing Line), 12 (International Star) = $15
$2 EXA 6 over 8, 10, 12, 18 (American Pharoh) = $8
$1 TRI (48 total)
8-6-18 over
8-6-18-10-12 over
8-6-18-10-12-15 (Frosted)
$25 WIN 8 (Dortmund)
$ 4 WIN 6 (Mubtaahij)
$5 EXA 8 over 6, 10 (Firing Line), 12 (International Star) = $15
$2 EXA 6 over 8, 10, 12, 18 (American Pharoh) = $8
$1 TRI (48 total)
8-6-18 over
8-6-18-10-12 over
8-6-18-10-12-15 (Frosted)
deacon14
Footballguy
deacon14
Footballguy
I was re-watching all of Frosted's races and caught Frammento in the Fountain of Youth replay. Upstart outdueled Frosted down the lane and Itsaknockout also came by. Just before the wire, Ortiz mistakenly eased off Frosted and Frammento blew by for third. No doubt, Zito is basing all his "can get the distance" yap on all these starters final furlong times. Frammento's had to be decent. Incidentally, Rosario won't be easing off Frosted unless he's hurt...
General Malaise
Footballguy
That's a big difference for me. Also, been using DRF since I was a kid, so I really don't know any other way. To each his own. I'm a DRF guy though. Only cost me $4.50, but thought I'd share with anybody who wanted it.
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