Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter chet
- Start date
General Malaise
Footballguy
There’s something heroic about the ability to accept defeat. It’s a role people accept, and enjoy more willingly than they know themselves. For the price of a bet the horseplayer buys a pedestal for himself. Horseplayers are a great fraternity united not by victory but defeat. There is between them, something-some understanding of one another that you will never find among the members of any group that knows only success.
W.C. Heinz New York Sun Sept. 19, 1949
W.C. Heinz New York Sun Sept. 19, 1949
-jb-
Footballguy
Yeah I know. I'm just stoked for him to even have a runner. Worst horse in the race followed by the worst draw = time to drink.Sorry good buddy - nice horse, but he's got zero chance. Better chance to finish dead last than win IMO.hum now ocho
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Churchill Downs
Or they may have a Kentucky Derby Only option...but likely too early
Probably tomorrow AM
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I use Brisnet because some are free, here are some for all my fellow cheapos:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/Baffert/BAFFERT+BOB/9999/summary.htm
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER%20TODD%20A/9999/summary.html
Last edited by a moderator:
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
bshell27
Footballguy
Are you not playing AP due to odds? Can't find the Caldwell story on knockout so you should be fine. Link?Using minimum wagers (except for the double play) these 62 Kentucky Oaks bets (25 exactas, 30 trifectas & 7 supers) can be made for $50. Assign any values you like.
Exactas
13 w 1,3,4,5,8,10,12,14
5 w 1,3,4,8,10,13,14
8 w 3,4,10,13,14
14 w 1,4,12
4 w 5,8
Trifectas
5,8,13 box (*double the bet*)
4 w 13 w 5,8,12
5 w 12 w 4,13,14
8 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 4 w 5,8,12
13 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 8 w 4,12,14
14 w 5 w 8,13
14 w 8 w 5,13
14 w 13 w 5,8
Superfectas
8 w 5 w 1,13 w 4
13 w 5 w 8 w 1,4,10,12,14
...and yes I know how to combine some of them, saving time in the teller lines
...Ticked that Jennifer Caldwell raved about the 13 on Kentuckyderby.com
Last edited by a moderator:
deacon14
Footballguy
~~~Those bets are for Friday's Kentucky Oaks~~~ 13 is Birdatthewire and the article is right smack in the middle of their main feed "Bird is the Word in Kentucky Oaks"Are you not playing AP due to odds? Can't find the Caldwell story on knockout so you should be fine. Link?Using minimum wagers (except for the double play) these 62 Kentucky Oaks bets (25 exactas, 30 trifectas & 7 supers) can be made for $50. Assign any values you like.
Exactas
13 w 1,3,4,5,8,10,12,14
5 w 1,3,4,8,10,13,14
8 w 3,4,10,13,14
14 w 1,4,12
4 w 5,8
Trifectas
5,8,13 box (*double the bet*)
4 w 13 w 5,8,12
5 w 12 w 4,13,14
8 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 4 w 5,8,12
13 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 8 w 4,12,14
14 w 5 w 8,13
14 w 8 w 5,13
14 w 13 w 5,8
Superfectas
8 w 5 w 1,13 w 4
13 w 5 w 8 w 1,4,10,12,14
...and yes I know how to combine some of them, saving time in the teller lines
...Ticked that Jennifer Caldwell raved about the 13 on Kentuckyderby.com
bshell27
Footballguy
Ahh. Skipped that and looked at the numbers in your post.~~~Those bets are for Friday's Kentucky Oaks~~~ 13 is Birdatthewire and the article is right smack in the middle of their main feed "Bird is the Word in Kentucky Oaks"Are you not playing AP due to odds? Can't find the Caldwell story on knockout so you should be fine. Link?Using minimum wagers (except for the double play) these 62 Kentucky Oaks bets (25 exactas, 30 trifectas & 7 supers) can be made for $50. Assign any values you like.
Exactas
13 w 1,3,4,5,8,10,12,14
5 w 1,3,4,8,10,13,14
8 w 3,4,10,13,14
14 w 1,4,12
4 w 5,8
Trifectas
5,8,13 box (*double the bet*)
4 w 13 w 5,8,12
5 w 12 w 4,13,14
8 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 4 w 5,8,12
13 w 5 w 4,12,14
13 w 8 w 4,12,14
14 w 5 w 8,13
14 w 8 w 5,13
14 w 13 w 5,8
Superfectas
8 w 5 w 1,13 w 4
13 w 5 w 8 w 1,4,10,12,14
...and yes I know how to combine some of them, saving time in the teller lines
...Ticked that Jennifer Caldwell raved about the 13 on Kentuckyderby.com
Can somebody explain what the $1 tri bets are with OVER. I am not familiar with going to the window and telling them $1 Tri 8-16-18 Over what would that get me.JB Breakfast Club said:
I usually go to the window tell them $1 tri then give them horses 1st (with) horses to come 2nd (with) horses to come 3rd
I am just trying to learn as much as possible.
TIA
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
"Over" indicates that you are separating your win/place/show choices. So those first 3 horses are his pick for win, second line place, third line show. You would actually have to say the whole thing in one bet "8-6-18 over 8-6-18-10-12 over 8-6-18-10-12-15"
Last edited by a moderator:
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
"Over" or "with" are both fine...teller should kniw what you mean
...and always check your tickets
shadrap
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
I think you'll enjoy the rest too...good read. Long, but well worth it if you like history, stories, horses and predictions.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Early thoughts:
1) Ocho Ocho Ocho - speed type, not fast enough, horrible post - THROWOUT
2) Carpe Diem - Taking a stand against. Pletcher's record not great, slow 1/2 mile in a weak BlueGrass. Johnny V chooses him though over Materiality. Can save ground. But 8 horses have run 100+ Beyers going into the KD, and CP isn't one of them. Maybe for the bottom of the super but don't like him much. Not quite a throwout but close for me. Underneath only if he gets a perfect trip.
3) Materiality - speed type, didn't run at 2, can't trust anything on the Gulfstream surface, and hate horses that are all out in their final Derby prep and this one was locked in a duel for the last half mile. Rumored to be getting hot in the mornings, so watch him in post parade. I think he's getting cooked. Even with best Beyer in the field, to me he's a stand against. THROWOUT
4) Tencendur - just got dusted by Frosted in the Wood at 1 1/8, going to get dusted by more going 1 1/4. THROWOUT
5) Danzig Moon - Been working very well according to Mike Welsch at DRF (always works great), but he's been beaten twice easily by Carpe Diem in what I think are very weak races. Bred to get the distance, but good works or not, to me - THROWOUT
6) Mubtaahij - Could win, could run last. LOVED his race in the UAE Derby (now on dirt), and the trainer is one of the best at shipping horses around the world to win. Before you dismiss Dubai horses, remember Toast of New York won the UAE Derby last year, didn't run in the KD, but came very close to winning the Breeder's Cup Classic vs. Bayern last year, finishing a close 2nd. Ran a huge race. This horse has 2 straight races at 1 3/16 miles that he won explosively. The question is how he shipped. Had to go to quarantine, train at Churchill. Have no idea how well he's adjusted. Supposedly couldn't have his normal feed. But if he did ship well he's one of the 4 horses in the race who I think can win. At 20-1, he'll be on plenty of my tickets and definitely boxed with American Pharaoh and Dortmund. He's the biggest question mark in the race. Will be far back early and is going against monsters. Worth a stab at 20-1 (but think he'll get bet down)
7) El Kabeir - Didn't love his Wood, and he's had 9 races. Good and bad. I think we've seen his best, and it's not good enough to win. Too slow. That being said, he's got plenty of bottom in him with so many races, has changed his running style to be pointed at this race, and nobody can save ground and make a run at CD like Borel. Can't win IMO, distance is a question, but not out of the question to finish in the bottom of the superfecta because of his running style if race falls part after suicide pace.
8) Dortmund - One of the 4 who can win. 6-6, huge horse, out of Big Brown, distance not a question. While I think American Pharaoh is the superior athlete, this horse is a warrior with a huge heart. A huge plus is his monster race at CD as a 2 year old. Every in his camp thinks he much prefers the CD surface to SA, with Dana Barnes his exercise rider saying he "moves way up on this surface". He'll be on every one of my tickets and I'll be awfully tempted on the win end if he gets to 9/2 or so, but I don't think he will.
9) Bolo - trounced by Dortmund, wants turf. THROWOUT.
10) Firing Line - This is a very good horse, and in some years I would give him a great shot to hit the board. The problem? He wants the front end and there is a HUGE amount of speed in this race. Mine That Bird or not, I'm not a big fan of the Sunland Derby as a serious prep. Those are just cheap points to get in the Derby. Ensures a fast pace, so he can hurt all horses who want the front end or press the pace. and he helps the closers. But I think he's done by the time they turn for home. THROWOUT.
11) Standford - Cheaper speed type in a race full of monster speed. Pletcher leaning towards maybe scratching. Easy THROWOUT.
12) International Star - think he beat nothing in this 3 FG preps - but he won them all and can close. Can't win, but can clunk up in the bottom of the superfecta if a pace meltdown
13) It'saknockout - Should be an automatic throwout - but looks like a Bluegrass Cat line who finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby to cost me hundreds of thousands of $. (horrible prep race coming in, most trainers would not run after that, but Pletcher still running him just like he did with BC). That being said maybe the owners just want to run him. Either way, he's out of Lemon Drop Kid who won the Belmont so distance isn't a problem. One that I'm leaving in at the bottom of the supers at a huge price.
14) Keen Ice - Well, he's a closer so I'm not inclined to automatically toss. Can't win, finished behind a lot of these horses including International Star in the last two, but has closed a bit and out of Curlin and Awesome Again a 1 1/4 should be no problem. That being said, he was 6 1/2 lengths at the top of the lane in the FG Derby, and he finished 6+ lengths at the wire. Really think he should be a throwout, but not doing yet as I may throw him in the bottom of the supers at a huge price.
15) Frosted - One of the 4 who can win. Loved his race in the Wood, naturally rates, closed into slow fraction and drew away easily. By far his best race, and it came after he flipped a palate. Don't think he liked the GP surface. I think he's going to need to run an Orb type race off the opinion. Joel Rosario just happened to be on Orb as well. Very good post to avoid trouble and make a bigger wide run when the speed tires. Race sets up for his style. I think he's the best value in the field, and may play him to win.
16) War Story - Second rate in lousy FG preps - THROWOUT.
17) Mr. Z - Cheaper, speed in a field loaded with the same, dusted by American Pharoah - THROWOUT
18) American Pharaoh - The most visually impressive athlete in this race by far. His Oaklawn Derby race was the kind I like to see in the final Derby prep. Kindly rated, push button turn of foot when asked, open up, then geared down in a hand ride at the end. Not too much taken out of him. His 58 and change breezing work made the CD clocker say "he's the best horse I've seen in 35 years". Don't mind the 18 post, can rate off the speed, will probably be setting 3rd or 4th right on the outside. Could make the monster move at the top of the lane and it's all over. That being said, he needs to break well, has never faced a field like this, and the best horse doesn't always win the Race for the Roses. While I think he's the most probable winner Victor can't go to soon or he'll be vulnerable late. But could win by 3. Must use.
19) Upstart - All out drive in the last vs. Materiality, and I think he'll regress of that effort. Not fast enough to get the lead, not explosive enough to outkick these monsters. THROWOUT.
20) Far Right - Spending way too much time vs. the likes of Mr. Z. I think he's cheaper, not really bred for the distance, and the only angles are he's done OK on the CD surface and Mike Smith is good at making a late run. May throw out, but also could be one of the bombers clunking up in a superfecta. Leaving in the bottom half only for now.
Summary:
1) Ocho Ocho Ocho - speed type, not fast enough, horrible post - THROWOUT
2) Carpe Diem - Taking a stand against. Pletcher's record not great, slow 1/2 mile in a weak BlueGrass. Johnny V chooses him though over Materiality. Can save ground. But 8 horses have run 100+ Beyers going into the KD, and CP isn't one of them. Maybe for the bottom of the super but don't like him much. Not quite a throwout but close for me. Underneath only if he gets a perfect trip.
3) Materiality - speed type, didn't run at 2, can't trust anything on the Gulfstream surface, and hate horses that are all out in their final Derby prep and this one was locked in a duel for the last half mile. Rumored to be getting hot in the mornings, so watch him in post parade. I think he's getting cooked. Even with best Beyer in the field, to me he's a stand against. THROWOUT
4) Tencendur - just got dusted by Frosted in the Wood at 1 1/8, going to get dusted by more going 1 1/4. THROWOUT
5) Danzig Moon - Been working very well according to Mike Welsch at DRF (always works great), but he's been beaten twice easily by Carpe Diem in what I think are very weak races. Bred to get the distance, but good works or not, to me - THROWOUT
6) Mubtaahij - Could win, could run last. LOVED his race in the UAE Derby (now on dirt), and the trainer is one of the best at shipping horses around the world to win. Before you dismiss Dubai horses, remember Toast of New York won the UAE Derby last year, didn't run in the KD, but came very close to winning the Breeder's Cup Classic vs. Bayern last year, finishing a close 2nd. Ran a huge race. This horse has 2 straight races at 1 3/16 miles that he won explosively. The question is how he shipped. Had to go to quarantine, train at Churchill. Have no idea how well he's adjusted. Supposedly couldn't have his normal feed. But if he did ship well he's one of the 4 horses in the race who I think can win. At 20-1, he'll be on plenty of my tickets and definitely boxed with American Pharaoh and Dortmund. He's the biggest question mark in the race. Will be far back early and is going against monsters. Worth a stab at 20-1 (but think he'll get bet down)
7) El Kabeir - Didn't love his Wood, and he's had 9 races. Good and bad. I think we've seen his best, and it's not good enough to win. Too slow. That being said, he's got plenty of bottom in him with so many races, has changed his running style to be pointed at this race, and nobody can save ground and make a run at CD like Borel. Can't win IMO, distance is a question, but not out of the question to finish in the bottom of the superfecta because of his running style if race falls part after suicide pace.
8) Dortmund - One of the 4 who can win. 6-6, huge horse, out of Big Brown, distance not a question. While I think American Pharaoh is the superior athlete, this horse is a warrior with a huge heart. A huge plus is his monster race at CD as a 2 year old. Every in his camp thinks he much prefers the CD surface to SA, with Dana Barnes his exercise rider saying he "moves way up on this surface". He'll be on every one of my tickets and I'll be awfully tempted on the win end if he gets to 9/2 or so, but I don't think he will.
9) Bolo - trounced by Dortmund, wants turf. THROWOUT.
10) Firing Line - This is a very good horse, and in some years I would give him a great shot to hit the board. The problem? He wants the front end and there is a HUGE amount of speed in this race. Mine That Bird or not, I'm not a big fan of the Sunland Derby as a serious prep. Those are just cheap points to get in the Derby. Ensures a fast pace, so he can hurt all horses who want the front end or press the pace. and he helps the closers. But I think he's done by the time they turn for home. THROWOUT.
11) Standford - Cheaper speed type in a race full of monster speed. Pletcher leaning towards maybe scratching. Easy THROWOUT.
12) International Star - think he beat nothing in this 3 FG preps - but he won them all and can close. Can't win, but can clunk up in the bottom of the superfecta if a pace meltdown
13) It'saknockout - Should be an automatic throwout - but looks like a Bluegrass Cat line who finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby to cost me hundreds of thousands of $. (horrible prep race coming in, most trainers would not run after that, but Pletcher still running him just like he did with BC). That being said maybe the owners just want to run him. Either way, he's out of Lemon Drop Kid who won the Belmont so distance isn't a problem. One that I'm leaving in at the bottom of the supers at a huge price.
14) Keen Ice - Well, he's a closer so I'm not inclined to automatically toss. Can't win, finished behind a lot of these horses including International Star in the last two, but has closed a bit and out of Curlin and Awesome Again a 1 1/4 should be no problem. That being said, he was 6 1/2 lengths at the top of the lane in the FG Derby, and he finished 6+ lengths at the wire. Really think he should be a throwout, but not doing yet as I may throw him in the bottom of the supers at a huge price.
15) Frosted - One of the 4 who can win. Loved his race in the Wood, naturally rates, closed into slow fraction and drew away easily. By far his best race, and it came after he flipped a palate. Don't think he liked the GP surface. I think he's going to need to run an Orb type race off the opinion. Joel Rosario just happened to be on Orb as well. Very good post to avoid trouble and make a bigger wide run when the speed tires. Race sets up for his style. I think he's the best value in the field, and may play him to win.
16) War Story - Second rate in lousy FG preps - THROWOUT.
17) Mr. Z - Cheaper, speed in a field loaded with the same, dusted by American Pharoah - THROWOUT
18) American Pharaoh - The most visually impressive athlete in this race by far. His Oaklawn Derby race was the kind I like to see in the final Derby prep. Kindly rated, push button turn of foot when asked, open up, then geared down in a hand ride at the end. Not too much taken out of him. His 58 and change breezing work made the CD clocker say "he's the best horse I've seen in 35 years". Don't mind the 18 post, can rate off the speed, will probably be setting 3rd or 4th right on the outside. Could make the monster move at the top of the lane and it's all over. That being said, he needs to break well, has never faced a field like this, and the best horse doesn't always win the Race for the Roses. While I think he's the most probable winner Victor can't go to soon or he'll be vulnerable late. But could win by 3. Must use.
19) Upstart - All out drive in the last vs. Materiality, and I think he'll regress of that effort. Not fast enough to get the lead, not explosive enough to outkick these monsters. THROWOUT.
20) Far Right - Spending way too much time vs. the likes of Mr. Z. I think he's cheaper, not really bred for the distance, and the only angles are he's done OK on the CD surface and Mike Smith is good at making a late run. May throw out, but also could be one of the bombers clunking up in a superfecta. Leaving in the bottom half only for now.
Summary:
- 3 horses for sure can win - Frosted, Dortmund, American Pharoah. The other darkhorse stab is Mubtaahij - so 4 total. I'd be absolutely shocked if any other horse won. I won't play American Pharoah to win - just too short of a price. Pretty confident one of the Baffert horses are in the exacta. Boxing Frosted with Dortmund/American Pharoah and Mubtaahij to the same duo could pay very well. Not a huge score like a tri/super, but nice nonetheless. $20 exacta box with these 4 would be $240.
- Very, very good chance that these 4 make up the exacta and quite possibly the tri. A $1 tri box with these 4 would be $24.
- Out of the other 16 horses, 10 are complete throwouts for me. So that leaves a max of 6 additional I'll be playing in the underneath slots to hunt for a big score.
- I'll likely look at putting my top 4 horses in top 3 spots and add Carpe Diem, El Kabeir, International Star, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice and Far Right in the 3rd and 4th slots. May look at my top 4 in the first two spots and the remaining 6 in the 3rd spot in tri's as well.
- A $1 4X4X10 tri would cost - $160. And I would feel very good with that coverage. Would need one of the Baffert horses to run out to pay big. Since confident that at least one of the Baffert horses finishes in the top 2 could have those keyed as first/second to pair down the ticket.
- A $1 4X4X10X10 super would cost $1600. Love the coverage but likely too rich (though if somehow the Baffert horses run out and you get Frosted/Mubtaahij you could be looking at a 100K super). Could say that the big 4 run top 3 so 4X4X4X10 ticket would be $720. Still rich for a $1 ticket so would likely need to get off the fence on other potential throwouts. I'd rather go in with a few friends on a ticket and get a cut. Only way I play this solo is if I hit huge on the undercard.
JShare87
Footballguy
Always look forward to your thoughts on the horses. Good stuff.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
What percent of the time does the best horse win the race? Do you think they need to switch to a format like they do for Olympic sprints whereby there is a qualifying round and then the actual race that is narrowed down so that the best horse wins a higher percent of the time? After all, the best horse should really be winning a high % of the time if it's a legitimate competition.
bshell27
Footballguy
I'll bite. With the way horses are now bred, I am not sure this is physically possible. Then do you limit horses that can run the rest of the TC races to the ones who qualified? New horses are coming in all of the time to challenge.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
Admittedly i don't know enough about horse racing to know the limitations of the animals. I know that I do agree with the California Chrome owner who stated that any horse that doesn't qualify for the derby shouldn't be allowed to run in the other two races, that's dumb to an outsider like me.
Also maybe it's not really possible to ever know who the "best" horse really is due to the variance in tracks, race lengths, inconsistent competition, etc. I suppose in that way it's much different than human racing where they run in relatively controlled environments and against the same guys that you know who's the best
deacon14
Footballguy
The Judge really posted a nice piece, so I won't do a blow by blow on each horse. For the most part, I agree with his analysis.
Moreso than I can ever recall, you have to start with who do you like best - Dortmund or American Pharoah. I was sitting in an OTW on Saturday night 9/27. The second AP crossed the wire in the G1 FrontRunner, I circled his name and said to my pops there is your Derby winner. The experts say that Dortmund has faced better out west, but AP beat both Texas Red (BC juvenile winner a few weeks later) and Calculator that night. His wins aren't that much less impressive than Dortmunds, at least not worth all the writing going on.
I am; however, going to go against that initial remark and start by siding with Dortmund. Just boxing the 2 on every single angle wastes too much money on what I think is vital towards holding a winner - instead of complaining you were all around a race & waving your near miss ticket(s.) Thank goodness, I have a bunch of AP exactas in the futures. ~Wink
Back to the Judge analysis... He nails it, but where is that surprise horse who ruins the super, the tri or even the exacta? IMO, I don't think we have a Commanding Curve or Golden Soul coming up in the exacta. These two above + Frosted make a terrific first tier and the second choices in the 10-1 to 15-1 range are very good also. But the super and trifecta are vulnerable. They always are. A quick early fight. Some bad inside draws for Pletcher. A bad break for a good horse. A run right smack into the rear of a stalling horse on the turn (see Will Take Charge virtually pull up as Verrazano died on the turn.) Something will open the door for a surprise horse to hit 3rd or 4th.
I like that the Judge has El Kabier and Keen Ice, haven't decided yet on Itsaknockout or Far Right and I'm not quite as sold on Mubtaahij (too many hurdles...don't like the change in diet one bit) and International Star (one day betting against the Ramseys cuz I loathe them will cost me.) I'll look for better value with Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Bolo or even Frammento. I understand that Frosted just blew away Tencendur. What if this year's Wood was better than recent years? I get that Carpe Diem has dominated Danzig Moon. Of the 2...forced to pick who finishes higher, I'll take DM. I always take that 2nd (no 3rd) look at the Malibu Moon from AP Indy offspring and Leparoux is the perfect fit for what needs to happen for DM. Sure, Bolo is probably a turf horse, but his beyers on dirt are much better? I'm using him underneath on the basis of his female family (23-b) and most Kentucky Derby winners - 8. Last, Frammento. Everyone focused on the objection in the Fountain of Youth Itsakockout</>Upstart, I'm watching Frammento pick up the pieces. Maybe it's worth seeing if his - future Derby bi-line "passing tired rivals" will be good enough for 4th.
There is always something illogical. Carve off just a tiny portion of your stake (by not boxing the two heavyweights on every thing you do) and invest it in something bizarre. I'll put my money where my mouth is and start by singling my Oaks/Derby double and play this! I'll call it "Eight over eight." If you want to trim (my best 4 are bolded.)
1,3,4,5,8,10,13,14 over only 8 (Dortmund)
Moreso than I can ever recall, you have to start with who do you like best - Dortmund or American Pharoah. I was sitting in an OTW on Saturday night 9/27. The second AP crossed the wire in the G1 FrontRunner, I circled his name and said to my pops there is your Derby winner. The experts say that Dortmund has faced better out west, but AP beat both Texas Red (BC juvenile winner a few weeks later) and Calculator that night. His wins aren't that much less impressive than Dortmunds, at least not worth all the writing going on.
I am; however, going to go against that initial remark and start by siding with Dortmund. Just boxing the 2 on every single angle wastes too much money on what I think is vital towards holding a winner - instead of complaining you were all around a race & waving your near miss ticket(s.) Thank goodness, I have a bunch of AP exactas in the futures. ~Wink
Back to the Judge analysis... He nails it, but where is that surprise horse who ruins the super, the tri or even the exacta? IMO, I don't think we have a Commanding Curve or Golden Soul coming up in the exacta. These two above + Frosted make a terrific first tier and the second choices in the 10-1 to 15-1 range are very good also. But the super and trifecta are vulnerable. They always are. A quick early fight. Some bad inside draws for Pletcher. A bad break for a good horse. A run right smack into the rear of a stalling horse on the turn (see Will Take Charge virtually pull up as Verrazano died on the turn.) Something will open the door for a surprise horse to hit 3rd or 4th.
I like that the Judge has El Kabier and Keen Ice, haven't decided yet on Itsaknockout or Far Right and I'm not quite as sold on Mubtaahij (too many hurdles...don't like the change in diet one bit) and International Star (one day betting against the Ramseys cuz I loathe them will cost me.) I'll look for better value with Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Bolo or even Frammento. I understand that Frosted just blew away Tencendur. What if this year's Wood was better than recent years? I get that Carpe Diem has dominated Danzig Moon. Of the 2...forced to pick who finishes higher, I'll take DM. I always take that 2nd (no 3rd) look at the Malibu Moon from AP Indy offspring and Leparoux is the perfect fit for what needs to happen for DM. Sure, Bolo is probably a turf horse, but his beyers on dirt are much better? I'm using him underneath on the basis of his female family (23-b) and most Kentucky Derby winners - 8. Last, Frammento. Everyone focused on the objection in the Fountain of Youth Itsakockout</>Upstart, I'm watching Frammento pick up the pieces. Maybe it's worth seeing if his - future Derby bi-line "passing tired rivals" will be good enough for 4th.
There is always something illogical. Carve off just a tiny portion of your stake (by not boxing the two heavyweights on every thing you do) and invest it in something bizarre. I'll put my money where my mouth is and start by singling my Oaks/Derby double and play this! I'll call it "Eight over eight." If you want to trim (my best 4 are bolded.)
1,3,4,5,8,10,13,14 over only 8 (Dortmund)
Last edited by a moderator:
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Good stuff Deacon. I base so much of Derby handicapping based on who should like that last 1/8 mile in a race where there should be a ton of speed tiring. You have to throw some of 'em out or the tickets just get too big.
I agree that the tri and super are vulnerable. I don't think the exacta is. Pretty confident that those 4 make up the exacta with some decent separation back to the next tier. So maybe I just play exacta's hard. Will pay nice if Frosted or Mujaahij come in on top. If you throw out the Dubai horse than I feel really good about the best pure speed presser (one of the Bafferts) boxed with the best natural closer (Frosted). So maybe Frosted boxed with both is the right play.
I may be wrong on Danzig Moon. I've seen the hype on Bolo first hand out West and I'm not buying. Tencendur just has the wrong race shape for this field. How can he not get swallowed?Didn't even like at Frammento or the other also eligibles yet. Will do if there is a scratch.
By the way - I'm with you on Ramsay.
Who do you guys like in the Oaks? I haven't looked at all but will be playing doubles to my top 4.
I agree that the tri and super are vulnerable. I don't think the exacta is. Pretty confident that those 4 make up the exacta with some decent separation back to the next tier. So maybe I just play exacta's hard. Will pay nice if Frosted or Mujaahij come in on top. If you throw out the Dubai horse than I feel really good about the best pure speed presser (one of the Bafferts) boxed with the best natural closer (Frosted). So maybe Frosted boxed with both is the right play.
I may be wrong on Danzig Moon. I've seen the hype on Bolo first hand out West and I'm not buying. Tencendur just has the wrong race shape for this field. How can he not get swallowed?Didn't even like at Frammento or the other also eligibles yet. Will do if there is a scratch.
By the way - I'm with you on Ramsay.
Who do you guys like in the Oaks? I haven't looked at all but will be playing doubles to my top 4.
deacon14
Footballguy
So so so agree on the exacta comment. Just had a really interesting conversation about the break (specifically relating to 17-18-19) and how it can really alter how the race plays out.
Initially, I was of the mind-set that Baffert has already committed to send Dortmund and no way that American Pharoah would be completely throttled and sent for the lead. I was thinking. Mr. Z (immediately) to his left does NOT like to be passed and that Pharoah would simply go side by side then tuck right in behind him on the turn.
My debater feels that Pharoah can not afford to stalk all the way from the 18 (now 17) post. Instead he believes that Upstart benefits most from the lineup of these 3 and that Baffert's duo will indeed hook up early on. He was almost insistent that when you have a horse (like both of them) that can get the lead and potentially wire (well from 30 seconds in anyway) the field, that you have to try despite the fact that you have the 2 best horses. Continued that so much can happen and everyone is trying to stalk. He felt from the outside that could be the kiss of death.
I find myself starting to agree a little. Sometimes being too cute or careful is overthinking? Thoughts???
Timmay
Footballguy
Good stuff judge and deacon. I agree with mostly everything stated.
Only thing I will add to all that is about 20-Far Right. I think if there is one horse in this field that will be a Commanding Curve type it will be him. The distance might affect him a little and his speed figures aren't up there with the best. It is going to take a good trip and a little luck but I think that is what Mike Smith is there for. As soon as he breaks from that 20 post, he is going to get close to the rail, as long as he can keep up with all the early speed, he could sneak into some of those Tri's late. The 2nd place finish to AP in the Arkansas Derby is a little misleading imo, Smith let up on FR once he got 2nd and let him coast into a 2nd place finish 8+ lengths behind AP, moving up well to take 2nd. He looked good in his previous 2 races before that, winning both. Maybe I just like his late kick abilities.
^With all that being said, I'm not preaching that Far Right can win this race or anything, but don't want people to think he is a toss out either. I'll have him in show on quite a few tickets tomorrow.
Only thing I will add to all that is about 20-Far Right. I think if there is one horse in this field that will be a Commanding Curve type it will be him. The distance might affect him a little and his speed figures aren't up there with the best. It is going to take a good trip and a little luck but I think that is what Mike Smith is there for. As soon as he breaks from that 20 post, he is going to get close to the rail, as long as he can keep up with all the early speed, he could sneak into some of those Tri's late. The 2nd place finish to AP in the Arkansas Derby is a little misleading imo, Smith let up on FR once he got 2nd and let him coast into a 2nd place finish 8+ lengths behind AP, moving up well to take 2nd. He looked good in his previous 2 races before that, winning both. Maybe I just like his late kick abilities.
^With all that being said, I'm not preaching that Far Right can win this race or anything, but don't want people to think he is a toss out either. I'll have him in show on quite a few tickets tomorrow.
deacon14
Footballguy
No doubt...and how can't you like Far Right entering the gate last at the "far right." That goiter pappy that MC's the draw (can't remember his name) sure missed a golden opportunity on his live call during the draw.
Whatever the case tomorrow, there will be some good horses that come up short. Come Preakness and Belmont - REMEMBER - don't give up on your initial 'capping. Some of those Derby losers (16 horses that miss tickets) will inevitably be simply grinded up due to the many grueling facets that make the Derby the ultimate racing challenge!
Judge Smails
Footballguy
So - about the Oaks......
General Malaise
Footballguy
I've thought he was the best horse for months now, so I'm sticking with Dortmund to win this thing. Great post position to go along with the pedigree, speed, stamina, trainer, jockey and the fact that ALL he does is win. 6 for 6. Won at 2. Winning at 3. I think we are looking at a very very special horse here.
I'm higher on Firing Line than some of you. Yeah, Sunland is a cheap score, but he BLEW that field away and notched a 1:47.39. He earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure for that. Materiality earned a 110 running 1 1/8 in 1:52.30 - Dentist, you want a REAL criticism of horse racing? Explain to me how a horse can run the SAME distance over a FAST DIRT TRACK in a time almost 5 full seconds SLOWER than another horse, yet he earns a Beyer Speed Figure 13 points greater. Makes zero sense to me. Firing Line was a head behind Dortmund twice and has never finished worse than 2nd. Gary Stevens aboard, I like his chances to stay with Dortmund, certainly more than Carpe Diem, whom I'm tossing.
No love for Upstart? Terrific! Currently 34-1 though I think that will come back closer to the ML odds of 15-1 before tomorrow. If not....TERRIFIC! Horse always finishes in the money. Was 3rd in the BC Juv, despite a rough trip. DQd in the Fountain of Youth to place 2nd and was 2nd in the Florida Derby. Unlike the Fla Derby winner, Upstart was raced at 2 and can charge late.
I also like Frosted as a closer, but boy....that Wood was not very impressive to me. Fractions seemed really slow. 49:04 half? Good god....I'll eat my visor if the fractions are slow in this one. I don't think that bodes well for Frosted, but I do agree he needs to be in the discussion for picking up the pieces of a fast pace. Currently 9-1 I think the better value resides in closer International Star at 20-1. His sire - the great Fusiachi Pegasus - won the Derby in 2000 and I like the way the horse has won lately. Improving speed figures mixed with a late charging style added to juicy odds and a clean sweep in Louisiana...what's not to like?
Now, what to do with the favorite? That's the rub. I do really like American Pharaoh and feel like it will be a mistake to leave him out. But I just have to ask....Who has be beaten recently? Far Right? Mr. Z? Still, everything you want in a stud stallion is there and so, I'll include him in the exotics.
$25 Win on #8 Dortmund = $25
$10 Win/Place on #10 Firing Line = $20
$2 ATB on #19 Upstart & #12 International Star = $12
$2 5-Horse Exacta Box: 8/10/12/18/19 = $40
$2 Trifecta Partial Wheel Key 8 with 10/12/18/19 with 10/12/18/19 = $24
***INSURANCE*** - In case the poop hits the fan, I'm throwing a $2 win ticket on all long-shots, so $2 to win on Ocho, Tencendur, Danzig, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Bolo, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice, War Story, Mr. Z, Far Right, Frammento = $24
TOTAL $145
I'm higher on Firing Line than some of you. Yeah, Sunland is a cheap score, but he BLEW that field away and notched a 1:47.39. He earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure for that. Materiality earned a 110 running 1 1/8 in 1:52.30 - Dentist, you want a REAL criticism of horse racing? Explain to me how a horse can run the SAME distance over a FAST DIRT TRACK in a time almost 5 full seconds SLOWER than another horse, yet he earns a Beyer Speed Figure 13 points greater. Makes zero sense to me. Firing Line was a head behind Dortmund twice and has never finished worse than 2nd. Gary Stevens aboard, I like his chances to stay with Dortmund, certainly more than Carpe Diem, whom I'm tossing.
No love for Upstart? Terrific! Currently 34-1 though I think that will come back closer to the ML odds of 15-1 before tomorrow. If not....TERRIFIC! Horse always finishes in the money. Was 3rd in the BC Juv, despite a rough trip. DQd in the Fountain of Youth to place 2nd and was 2nd in the Florida Derby. Unlike the Fla Derby winner, Upstart was raced at 2 and can charge late.
I also like Frosted as a closer, but boy....that Wood was not very impressive to me. Fractions seemed really slow. 49:04 half? Good god....I'll eat my visor if the fractions are slow in this one. I don't think that bodes well for Frosted, but I do agree he needs to be in the discussion for picking up the pieces of a fast pace. Currently 9-1 I think the better value resides in closer International Star at 20-1. His sire - the great Fusiachi Pegasus - won the Derby in 2000 and I like the way the horse has won lately. Improving speed figures mixed with a late charging style added to juicy odds and a clean sweep in Louisiana...what's not to like?
Now, what to do with the favorite? That's the rub. I do really like American Pharaoh and feel like it will be a mistake to leave him out. But I just have to ask....Who has be beaten recently? Far Right? Mr. Z? Still, everything you want in a stud stallion is there and so, I'll include him in the exotics.
$25 Win on #8 Dortmund = $25
$10 Win/Place on #10 Firing Line = $20
$2 ATB on #19 Upstart & #12 International Star = $12
$2 5-Horse Exacta Box: 8/10/12/18/19 = $40
$2 Trifecta Partial Wheel Key 8 with 10/12/18/19 with 10/12/18/19 = $24
***INSURANCE*** - In case the poop hits the fan, I'm throwing a $2 win ticket on all long-shots, so $2 to win on Ocho, Tencendur, Danzig, Mubtaahij, El Kabeir, Bolo, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice, War Story, Mr. Z, Far Right, Frammento = $24
TOTAL $145
General Malaise
Footballguy
I have no idea what to do with the Oaks....anybody?
chet
Footballguy
BumpHi everyone! The last few years, I've put some (hmmm - energy) into the "female families" angle. It's pretty well known that 23b has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners - 8 total - last I'll Have Another. Interestingly, Carpe Diem and Bolo hail from 23b.
Anyway, with the Derby shaping up to be a bit chalkier, I'm going to invest more than usual into the Oaks. Soooooo - I spent a few hours on this whole female family business relative to the Kentucky Oaks. What I discovered was some bizarre similarities to Belmont/Preakness recent history. Over the past 15 Oaks, 5 winners have hailed from family 8. The most impressive winners during that span were last year's Untapable (from 8d) and best time - 2003 Bird Town (from 8f.) No less than 4 fillies from family 8 are a part of the field this year! #3 Include Betty (20-1) from 8f, #4 Eskenformoney (20-1) from 8c, #10 Ocean Wave (30-1) from 8d & #13 *Birdatthewire (6-1) from 8f.
Normal 'capping has me pointed towards #5 Condo Commando and I do like #14 Puca - for a whole host of reasons, just wish she got a better draw. Not sure if just boxing the longer shots from family 8, or playing them underneath more obvious exactas and triples is better. Just tossing it out there for yah...
*If Birdatthewire is fortunate enough to come up on top of the Oaks, don't be surprised to see her show up in the Preakness or even the Belmont. Trainer Romans (Shackleford 2011) is no stranger to turning the tables on the Derby winner. Also, her sire (Summer Bird) won the 2009 Belmont. Her only defeat in last 4 races was to Ekati's Phaeton at a shorter distance (mile) where she was bumped at the start and was definitely coming. By the way, Ekati's Phaeton is signed on at (6-1) morning line in the 7 furlong Eight Belles just a race before the Oaks.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
El Kabeir has scratched. You have to keep up-to-date to not bet on the wrong horse.
Last edited by a moderator:
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I spread in the Oaks. Liked the Jones horses. Have $10 doubles live from Lovely Maria to my 4 - American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Mubtaahij. Need to see what they'll pay. Guessing in the neighborhood of $30 for Pharoah, $50 for Dortmund, but over $150-$200 with Frosted and Mubtaahij. So at least I got that going for me. Which is nice.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Very good analysis. I may be wrong on Frosted, but I'm envisioning the trip more than anything. How many of those who have run 100+ Beyers really want to rate? As for who he beat - quick, name who finished second to Dortmund in the SA Derby, and to American Pharoah in the Oaklawn Derby (Carpe Diem for that matter in the Blue Grass). The only argument you can make for a tough race was the Florida Derby, and for that I may in fact be underestimated both Materiality and Upstart. I'm with you, I don't know what to make of that GP track, big Beyers, SLOW times, so I'm tossing both -maybe mistakenly. Can't bet em all.
I do agree with you on Dortmund having the perfect post. He should be right in the thick of the action without having to race wide.
Also have a sneaky suspicion that Baffert may not run 1-2 but maybe 1-3. So maybe throw longer shots in the 2nd leg of the tri with those 2 first and third. That would be like $40.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Maybe next time let us know BEFORE the race when you have the winner.
I liked Maria but tied her in with the absolute wrong horses. Neat race Stellar Wind. You too Birdatthewire.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Have they posted Oaks/Derby double will pays yet? I can't find them....
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Brad Thomas was on with Francesa today for his annual derby spot. This guy knows things about these horses that normal people shouldn't know. He hit the exacta last year and his favorite longshot this year is Bolo.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
How's this? Like I said I spread, really hoping for a big longshot to Puca to win and then maybe Mubtaahij or Frosted. Will probably just get my money back if Dortmund wins, and even less if American Pharoah wins. But I got action........Maybe next time let us know BEFORE the race when you have the winner.
I liked Maria but tied her in with the absolute wrong horses. Neat race Stellar Wind. You too Birdatthewire.
May. 1, 2015 12:03 PM 884AB10B7079 Online Gaming Oaks Derby Double 1 $10.00 DB 7,8,12,13,14 / 6,8,15,18 $200.00 Pending
General Malaise
Footballguy
Anybody betting the early races tomorrow? Some good ones on the card.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good luck amigo. Just busting yer stones.How's this? Like I said I spread, really hoping for a big longshot to Puca to win and then maybe Mubtaahij or Frosted. Will probably just get my money back if Dortmund wins, and even less if American Pharoah wins. But I got action........May. 1, 2015 12:03 PM 884AB10B7079 Online Gaming Oaks Derby Double 1 $10.00 DB 7,8,12,13,14 / 6,8,15,18 $200.00 PendingMaybe next time let us know BEFORE the race when you have the winner.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
You too GM - I feel like Flounder in anticipation of tomorrow.."Oh Boy is this GREAT"
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Not bad. For the $200 total wager I'll get back:
$280 for American Pharoah
$400 for Dortmund
$860 for Frosted
$1100 for Mujtaahib
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I may be overlooking Upstart. Getting lots of love from the DRF handicappers, think he can make a big run off the pace. May have to get him underneath..
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Similar threads
