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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter chet
- Start date
bshell27
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Tragic story of how my first ticket had the trifecta, only to be changed when a horse scratched, so I win nothing.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Got the top 3 horses. Poor Firing Line... Always the bridesmaid.
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Whiffed on the win, but got place, show, exacta, and trifecta! This never happens!Buying a lottery ticket tonight.
hockeymedic
Footballguy
Can anyone tell me how much this ticket won ? $1 trifecta - 18 / 6,8,10,15/6,8,10,15. Can't get the track til tomorrow. Thanks
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Hit a tri and an exacta. Good day.
Penguin
Footballguy
hockeymedic
Footballguy
Thanks Penguin
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Worst derby ever
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Hit $2 exacta and $1 trifecta. Could have been really nice if Firing Line had won.
So, Pharaoh probably goes off at 3/5 in the Preakness, right?
So, Pharaoh probably goes off at 3/5 in the Preakness, right?
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Sounds like a few of you guys had it. Congrats.
I think I handicapped this well except for 2 things:
1) Really respected Firing Line as a very good horse, but had etched in my mind that if he couldn't finish Dortmund 2X at less than 1 1/4, he wasn't going to do it on Derby Day when Pharaoh was breathing down his neck on his outside too. Was wrong on that. Stevens road a great race and Firing Line was tough as nails.
2) Took a stab on the Dubai horse as one of the 4 who could win based on the video I saw, and it was just that, a stab.
Only hit the Oaks/Derby double for $280. Missed my $20 4 horse exacta box and tri's, but I did stick to my guns this year. Down for the day. Still, Derby, Game 7 Clipper game, fight (boring) and poker until 5 am. Lotta fun.
On to the Preakness. If all 3 come back it will be a war. I think they are very close in talent. I wouldn't bet Pharaoh at 3-5
I think I handicapped this well except for 2 things:
1) Really respected Firing Line as a very good horse, but had etched in my mind that if he couldn't finish Dortmund 2X at less than 1 1/4, he wasn't going to do it on Derby Day when Pharaoh was breathing down his neck on his outside too. Was wrong on that. Stevens road a great race and Firing Line was tough as nails.
2) Took a stab on the Dubai horse as one of the 4 who could win based on the video I saw, and it was just that, a stab.
Only hit the Oaks/Derby double for $280. Missed my $20 4 horse exacta box and tri's, but I did stick to my guns this year. Down for the day. Still, Derby, Game 7 Clipper game, fight (boring) and poker until 5 am. Lotta fun.
On to the Preakness. If all 3 come back it will be a war. I think they are very close in talent. I wouldn't bet Pharaoh at 3-5
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Actually a pretty good race but the payouts were not what we used to get with both chalks in the money.
If I had known I could get over even money (4.20) with the first 2 chalks hitting the board, I would have just doubled my money by betting one of them to show.
Instead I got nothing, and didn't like it.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I didn't think it was a particularly exciting race to be honest...
Weak payouts didn't help but I whiffed so it's a moot point. I had the same concerns with Firing Line fading and only had him 3rd
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Hit the exacta and $1 tri.
Don't want to be "that guy" but should have hit super.
What I had written was 8-18 over 8-10-15-18 over 8-10-15-18 over 5-6-8-10-15-18.
However in all my drunkeness I said "8-10 over".
So stupid. Didn't even realize until I was in line to cash.
Oh well. Was a great time. Lines were ridiculous though.
Don't want to be "that guy" but should have hit super.
What I had written was 8-18 over 8-10-15-18 over 8-10-15-18 over 5-6-8-10-15-18.
However in all my drunkeness I said "8-10 over".
So stupid. Didn't even realize until I was in line to cash.
Oh well. Was a great time. Lines were ridiculous though.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
Watched the race, didn't enjoy it as much this year without having the party i normally have.
Still made some great juleps though with the official Woodford Reserve Derby Bourbon, some "Sonic" ice, mint infused simple syrup, fresh mint from the city market, and my "California Chrome for the Repeat" shirt on.
Still made some great juleps though with the official Woodford Reserve Derby Bourbon, some "Sonic" ice, mint infused simple syrup, fresh mint from the city market, and my "California Chrome for the Repeat" shirt on.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
so horse betting is dumb, and I need more work.
I had a blast at the derby though and made it on TV and was tweeted out by NBC
I had a blast at the derby though and made it on TV and was tweeted out by NBC
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Great, now I know what's going on in the world of hockey.
Yet, I still have no clue what you look like.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
It's certainly not easy money
I think you have to really enjoy it to make the time and money investment into it
Timmay
Footballguy
I hit the $2 exacta and $1 tri, but still ended up losing money overall. I was counting on the tri to pay at least $300. Wish Frosted was able to take 3rd over Dortmund to make the tri a little better. I think Frosted will be a big threat in the Belmont if he were to run. Hoping AP, FL and Dortmund all run in the Preakness.
Anybody know what happened to Upstart? I saw he finished last 60 1/2 lengths behind. Didn't see any video on it though, as to what happened.
AP ran a great race. Even going 3 wide around the stretch turn, he was still able to take care of business. If he was on the inside, he could of won by 3-4 lengths. Have to give credit to FL too. He was tough as nails and stuck with the big boys the entire race.
I agree with others though, the race overall was pretty boring, it was basically a 4 horse race. AP, FL, Dortmund and Frosted. The battle of the top 3 the entire race was fun, but no other horse had a chance.
Anybody know what happened to Upstart? I saw he finished last 60 1/2 lengths behind. Didn't see any video on it though, as to what happened.
AP ran a great race. Even going 3 wide around the stretch turn, he was still able to take care of business. If he was on the inside, he could of won by 3-4 lengths. Have to give credit to FL too. He was tough as nails and stuck with the big boys the entire race.
I agree with others though, the race overall was pretty boring, it was basically a 4 horse race. AP, FL, Dortmund and Frosted. The battle of the top 3 the entire race was fun, but no other horse had a chance.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
For those who are still interested some links for this weekend's races. I would assume Preakness PPs will be coming up after the draw.
http://downthestretchs.com/2015-preakness-stakes-odds/
http://downthestretchs.com/2015-black-eyed-susan-day-and-preakness-days-stakes-schedules/
http://downthestretchs.com/2015-preakness-stakes-odds/
http://downthestretchs.com/2015-black-eyed-susan-day-and-preakness-days-stakes-schedules/
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Looks like the field for the Preakness is going to be Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund, Danzig Moon, Bodhisattva, Divining Rod, and Tale of Verve. Odds are going to be very, very short on the favorites.
My guess for post time : Pharoah : 1/2, Firing Line : 5/2, Dortmund : 3/1, Danzig Moon 12/1, Divining Rod 18/1, Bodhisattva 25/1, Tale of Verve 40/1
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Good news is that the Belmont should be loaded.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
This year especially. I can't remember THIS many Derby hopefuls skipping the Preakness and going straight to Belmont. Materiality, Muhajjdcascjdsav, Keen Ice (deep closer), Carpe Diem, Frosted, etc - a lot of good horses going right to NY, then add whoever ships there from Baltimore, plus a couple of new shooters and it's going to be a deeeeep field.
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Mile High
Footballguy
Don't understand this thinking when horse racing could use a triple crown winner.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I'm no expert, but with a 7 horse field, racing luck and post position don't factor into the equation very much, IMO. I just can't see any of the other 4 horses taking out the big 3. I'd give Danzig Moon a chance at a greater distance, but I don't see him having the speed to stay with the top 3 over 1 3/16. Divining Rod is a decent horse but is outclassed here, and the other 2 are basically throwaways. I don't see how you make $$ on this one. Box the top 3 in trifectas (and expect about a $20 payout on $1 tri) - box the field in exactas and hope for a miracle (but more likely get the $7-8 AP/FL or AP/Dort payout.) Spend $84 to superfecta box the field at $0.10 and then pray for 2 of the three big horses to collide early and throw their riders....
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Owners/trainers are out for themselves and their horses. They feel (rightly so) that their horses have a much better shot on 5 weeks rest of beating American Pharoah over 1 1/2 miles at Belmont than they do of beating him over 1 3/16 on 2 weeks rest. They're not about to burn up their horses just to fall on their swords for the good of the sport.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
General Malaise
Footballguy
Call me stubborn. Call me stupid. Call me whatever you will. But I'm back on Dortmund again. I see him at 5-1 on the offshore accounts, so will lock in some of that. He's a big old boy and maybe a thin field will play to his strength. 
Timmay
Footballguy
Personally, I don't see any way that the Win-Place-Show horses in the Preakness is going to be any different than they were in the derby. AP, FL, and Dortmund-not necessarily that order.
I think AP will win easily if the track is wet (they are calling for rain Saturday). I think he will win if the track is dry, however I think FL and Dortmund are going to give him a better race than in the derby.
Exotics aren't going to pay anything with chalk across the board. I do think Firing Line has a decent shot at winning, he has been improving in every race, and has been practicing really well since the derby. He finally beat his first nemesis in Dortmund, I think he could take down his next nemesis in AP on Saturday. So as far as my bets go, even though I think AP will win, I'm going to focus my bets around FL in hopes that AP doesn't show. Nothing too crazy though for the Preakness due to not much value all around.
As a long shot, Bodhisattva interests me a little, but I just don't think he can compete with the top 3.
I think AP will win easily if the track is wet (they are calling for rain Saturday). I think he will win if the track is dry, however I think FL and Dortmund are going to give him a better race than in the derby.
Exotics aren't going to pay anything with chalk across the board. I do think Firing Line has a decent shot at winning, he has been improving in every race, and has been practicing really well since the derby. He finally beat his first nemesis in Dortmund, I think he could take down his next nemesis in AP on Saturday. So as far as my bets go, even though I think AP will win, I'm going to focus my bets around FL in hopes that AP doesn't show. Nothing too crazy though for the Preakness due to not much value all around.
As a long shot, Bodhisattva interests me a little, but I just don't think he can compete with the top 3.
Mile High
Footballguy
They can still win if they ran in the other 2.
General Malaise
Footballguy
The Belmont is a mile and a half and the horses typically go balls to the walls. There's a sound strategy to giving your horse 5 weeks off between the KD and the Belmont. It freshens them up while you let the other horses tire themselves out. These aren't race cars. They are three year old animals and they get tired. They also have personalities, just like your pet dog. Getting beat in a race can sometimes negatively impact a top tier horse that is used to winning. Winning a triple crown SHOULD be hard. The horses that pull it off should be special. I have no problem with an owner/trainer who wants to skip the Preakness. None. They don't care about a triple crown - you do. They DO care about earnings and future stud fees. It's their investment, they should get the highest ROI possible.
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