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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (2 Viewers)

otb_lifer said:
a few years back I was sky high on Gemologist (Pletcher) ... and I think he won the 'booby' prize that year, if memory serves  

I was all  :rant:

and some random citizen was like   :wub:
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Don't want anyone to get hurt but it's enough to want your jockey to fall off his horse.

 
otb_lifer said:
a few years back I was sky high on Gemologist (Pletcher) ... and I think he won the 'booby' prize that year, if memory serves  

I was all  :rant:

and some random citizen was like   :wub:
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####### Gemologist

i was all over him that year.  Stupid horse.  He was definitely towards the bottom...looked it up.  16th

 
Dan Lambskin said:
####### Gemologist

i was all over him that year.  Stupid horse.  He was definitely towards the bottom...looked it up.  16th
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I know he folded like a Walmart lawn chair by the 1/2 mile pole ... Smith was layin' down those 'where's the damn fire?' fractions with Bodemeister, then IHA swooped in. 

the four who finished behind Gem must've been sprint $$$$ entries ... that was the last year before the earned points (all on routes) system was implemented. 

 
otb_lifer said:
I know he folded like a Walmart lawn chair by the 1/2 mile pole ... Smith was layin' down those 'where's the damn fire?' fractions with Bodemeister, then IHA swooped in. 

the four who finished behind Gem must've been sprint $$$$ entries ... that was the last year before the earned points (all on routes) system was implemented. 
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Trinniberg (sprinter)

prospective (no recollection)

Take charge Indy (hurt)

Daddy long legs (UAE derby)

i miss the cheap speed.

the bright side was that this made me realize NY horse are garbage

 
Dan Lambskin said:
the bright side was that this made me realize NY horse are garbage
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so I take it you're off Mohaymen this year? 

dunno, that Fla. Derby I linked to earlier was a bad trip ... and Nyquist was just firing on all jets. 

can't help but think it was his (Mohaymen) bounce effort, and that he comes up big in 9 days  :shrug:

I'm very high on keying him right now. 

 
otb_lifer said:
so I take it you're off Mohaymen this year? 

dunno, that Fla. Derby I linked to earlier was a bad trip ... and Nyquist was just firing on all jets. 

can't help but think it was his (Mohaymen) bounce effort, and that he comes up big in 9 days  :shrug:

I'm very high on keying him right now. 
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I'm not too high on him but still have a lot of research to do.  Not sure he wants 10f and speed figs had kind of plateaued before that poor effort in Florida Derby

think Nyqist looks to be the best but not sure he wants 10f either.  I think we could see a longer shot horse win this year but last few Derbys pace hasn't been too highly contested so I could see Nyqist getting to the stretch with some easy fractions and holding off any late runners (assuming he gets a good trip)

at first glance this crop seems fairly weak to boot

 
Since 1993 only one horse has won the Derby going a total 17.5 furlongs or less in his 3yr old preps - Animal Kingdom( who went 17.5)

Possible M/L favorite, Nyquist,  had two preps this year, 7f and 1 1/8 mile for a total of 16furlongs. 

23 horses have entered the Derby undefeated, only 7 have won. Seattle Slew, Big Brown and Smarty Jones and Barbaro were 4 of the 7 undefeated to win the Derby.   Don't think Nyquist should/will be mentioned in the same breathe. Should be very good value if you don't like Nyquist.

 
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Dan Lambskin said:
I'm not too high on him but still have a lot of research to do.  Not sure he wants 10f and speed figs had kind of plateaued before that poor effort in Florida Derby

think Nyqist looks to be the best but not sure he wants 10f either.  I think we could see a longer shot horse win this year but last few Derbys pace hasn't been too highly contested so I could see Nyqist getting to the stretch with some easy fractions and holding off any late runners (assuming he gets a good trip)

at first glance this crop seems fairly weak to boot
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Some good points here.  The bottom line is the change in qualifying has totally changed how the Derby is run. Rarely to you see pure sprinters who have no chance get in anymore. You need to win in your 3 year old year at longer distances to typically get in.  Therefore, horses that can rate a bit off the pace into sensible fractions have an edge vs deep closers who shocked when 45 and change paces melted down.  I think we'll see shorter prices, and more Triple Crown horses.  I don't like any horse that was destroyed by Nyquist in the Florida Derby.  He'll be very tough.  Will take a closer out of the Oaklawn race most likely to pair in exactas.  Exxagerator may have freaked in the mud and will consider only if it's raining.  Just beginning to look though.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
right...so I thought I'd cut the number in half and box them. That does mean I need to make 190 square combinations to draw instead of writing names on the squares...but I think I'd have better luck selling all of them to avoid a messy carry over. It's going to be about a dozen adults...I suppose I could do a quarter per square on a full grid (planning 50 cents per spot on the box grid...$95 to the winner).
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So have a snake draft.  Draw positions randomly.  The first four guys will only get one horse.  The last eight will get two.

 
speed (Danzig Candy) drew the 20 hole, and will be the last horse to load - gonna be a hell of an opening 1/2 mile. 

time to get crackin' 

:coffee:

 
Nyquist just doesn't have much to beat.  He's shipped before and won so traveling not an issue.  He may not love 1 1/4 miles, but most of the others won't either.  Honestly I didn't love his last work though.  Constant lugging out.  He could have been just playing around but I would have rather not seen it.

'Candy will have to bolt out of the 20 hole ensuring a faster pace than originally anticipated, and hope he doesn't come over and impede the field.  No big buzz horse this year.  No horse working so well to say "play me".  Sorta blah..

 
here's my thoughts...will come up with the Super High 5 later

Trojan Nation – don't think the rail really hurts him since he’s a deep closer and should just drop back. hard to see his first ever win being in the Kentucky Derby as a 50-1 shot with an inexperienced jockey.  Pedigree seems suited for distance.  Speed figures have shown some minor progression but don't seem good enough.  Don't really see myself using him but as a late runner at long odds could be worth putting in the super if we expect a pace meltdown

Suddenbreakingnews – another deep closer that shouldn't be impacted by a post close to the rail.  Despite him only having 1 win in the prep races I like that he was able to close from 14th to win Southwest with a pretty moderate pace.  Looks like he should have no problem getting the distance.  He made up a lot of ground in his other preps as well…certainly think he’s got a shot to win it passing tired horses in that long stretch.  Don't necessarily want to key on him because I could see him getting his run going too late and missing the board, but I do think he should be all over the tickets.  Inexperienced Jock/Trainer is a bit of a red flag as well.  Steady progression in speed figs too so no reason he cant put up a 100+ fig to win this

Creator – yet another deep closer near the rail…do they all try to drop back, or does one of them get forced to mid pack?  He has a 2nd here so that's always a good sign that he took to the track.  Pretty much can say the same thing I’ve said about the other closers.  Pedigree is interesting…cant say id be thrilled backing a Tapit making a late run at 10f but dam side is classy as hell.  Don't know much about jock but stats are good as Asmussen a solid trainer.  100 Bris last out and I believe announcer says “looks like Creator wont get there” on after the turn and he ends up turning it on and getting it done.  Not really sure what I want to do with him, don't think I  can outright toss him but not sure how hard I want to play him either

Mo Tom – oh look another deep closer.  Has a win and a show here at Churchill.  Speed figs seem to have plateaued in mid 90’s.  Uncle Mo is another sire that doesn't scream 10f to me…not sure on Dam but Dam Sire AWD only 7f.  does look like he’s found trouble in all his Fair Grounds races which I can go either way on “hey if he gets a clean trip maybe he can do some damage” or “hmmm…has a propensity for finding trouble and now he’s close to the rail in a 20 horse field”.  Inclined to toss but I guess he could find a way to get a piece.  Cant play them all though

Gun Runner – finally an off the pace type horse.  Fairly lightly raced and speed figs keep going up.  Won both preps at FG, not sure how good that competition is though.  Jock also an unknown to me.  Has Candy Ride had any kind of success in Derby?  Doesn't look like it although Shared Belief was a hell of a horse in his short time.  Did break his maiden here.  Coming off a pretty long layoff too.  Not finding much to be a fan of so certainly not going to fight for him but if others like him I wont talk them out of putting him on the ticket

My Man Sam – deep closer, solid jock/trainer combo, only has 1 stakes race under his belt.  Trappe Shot sprinter out of Tapit I believe, right?  Don't see much to be excited about here and doubt we can play every closer underneath.  I guess I keep him under consideration but another one I’m not fighting for

Oscar Nominated – can always count on the Ramsey’s putting in a horse with no shot to win.  I think he’s severely outclassed here and an easy toss IMO.  I guess one positive is that he shouldn't mind the distance and is 50-1, but I cant see spending the money to include him

Lani – I think Mike Watchmaker says every year “the first UAE Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby will be at my expense”.  I tend to agree.  Toss

Destin – in general I don't really respect Tampa Bay preps all that much, but he did put up some of the best speed figs among these and should be forwardly placed, so if there is a softer pace he should get a good crack at it.  Pletcher Derby record isn’t exactly stellar and while Giants Causeway is a pretty decent sire I seem to recall Storm Cat lineage not faring very well in Derby for whatever reason but I guess he is  great-grandsire of American Pharoah so there’s that.  CASTELLANO one of the better jocks in the biz.  Don't really like him for the win but I could see him getting a piece.

Whitmore – I’m kind of intrigued by him.  Gets probably the best TC Jock of the last few years, although i’m pretty sure the horses had quite a bit to do with those wins so I’m not sure that’s worth as much as it will be made out to be by the media and it looks like this is his first time riding him.  Has a win here but doesn't have any Stakes wins and is another late runner that hasn't been able to quite get there in his other races.  Speed figs are climbing up.  Not sure the middle post position is great for him either…could see him getting gobbled up and racing mid pack rather than far back.  hard to back him over the other Oaklawn closers but at 20-1 I’m inclinced to play him to pick up a piece

Exaggerator – there’s a lot to like here.  Speed figs best in the field, lot of racing experience, Curlin solid sire (although seems to produce some late bloomers), racing style should put him in good position if he gets a clean trip.  What does give me some pause is that 3 of his best wins 2 are in the slop and one was a 7f sprint.  His only stakes race on a fast track as a 3 year old was the San Felipe where he wasn't able to get it done (does look like he had some mild trouble but drifted in the stretch as well).  The pro’s certainly outweigh the cons and I think you have to play him all over, but there’s enough concern where I’m not sure he should be keyed on

Tom's Ready – couple wins here is nice…looks to be more of a midpack closer than deep closer but I just don't think he’s good enough to really get a piece here. Inclined to toss

Nyquist – well he’s undefeated and only real question mark I have is can he get the distance.  Probably wants to be at or near the lead but BC Juvenile win he was able to overcome some trouble and still get it done.  I don't see any way you can leave him off the ticket but certainly can see a scenario where a hot pace keeps him from hitting the board.  As a 3-1 favorite I’d like to see him off the board but have to make sure he’s covered

Mohaymen – really torn on what to do with him.  Some of the better speed figs and only has one loss.  Seems like his works are good although that’s just looking at numbers and not any actual first hand accounts.  Tapit as a sire certainly gives me pause but again on talent he’s simply better than most of these.  Good trip and soft pace I can see him getting a piece or even winning…bad trip hot pace probably misses the board.  I probably feel dumb leaving him off and having him get a big piece so I think I’ve got to find a way to make room for him

Outwork – think this is one I’m taking a stand against.  Pletcher, Wood Winners have been less than impressive, Uncle Mo as sire.  He’s gonna be near the lead but looked like he was all out to hold of an 80-1 shot in the Wood and let Destin pass him in Tampa Bay.  I just don't see him holding off what I think are more talented front runners and some pretty game late closers.  If he hits the board I’m probably ripping up all my tickets unless I somehow decide to leave him in for 3rd…wouldn't have a problem dropping him if ticket gets to costly

Shagaf – I respect him even less than Outwork.  Outside post should help him avoid trouble and settle into whatever position he wants to run in but if he gets hung wide I don't see him being a factor and even with a good trip I don't think he will be.  I’ll take the approach that if he hits the board he can have my money

Mor Spirit – there’s quote a bit to like here.  Baffert is one of the best at getting the most out of a Derby horse (although he has his misses for sure).  Gary Stevens past his prime but still a HOF jockey.  Seems to be working well and while I’m not sure on ability to get the distance I think he’ll be in a good position turning for home.  If you like Exaggerator I think you have to like him.  Inclined to play all over

Majesto – another horse I’m intrigued by, especially at 30-1.  Sire was a gutsy classic winner so not too concerned there.  Lot of unknowns with him and took him 5 tries to break his maiden but did go on to finish 2nd in Florida Derby (although once Moyhamen fizzled “someone had to finish 2nd” seems to be the general sentiment around him).  Not gonna fight too hard for him but post and running style should keep him out of trouble to at least give him a chance to make some noise (and some nice show payoffs if he hits)

Brody's Cause – one of many deep closers but most of the others are all on the inside, so he definitely shouldn’t find any trouble settling into the back.  has a maiden win here but looking at his body of work I just don't think he’s good enough to be a factor.  I guess there’s a chance he get’s up for a piece but going to be hard to make room for him

Danzing Candy – one of the few front runners in this field I’m guessing he makes a beeline for the rail and goes as far as he can.  I think he may have the highest fig in the field when he wired the San Felipe over a few horses I really like, but I don't think he’s good enough to wire this field at 10f (assuming someone at least goes with him).  I think he’s the likely pace setter and probably a key factor in how the whole race is run.  If he goes blazing fast like Mike Smith did on Palace Malice it probably sets up for some closer to bring it home.  If he goes slower it’s probably one of the horses just off the pace.  So with all that said I think 4th at best

 
hard to find anything to hold against Nyquist .. he is the class here.

so I'll point to one blemish, and that is O'Neill.   look, I like the guy, and I dig his style.  just a certain air swirls around that dude ... grasping here, sure ...

but there's virtually nothing else to pop Nyquist on 

 
otb_lifer said:
hard to find anything to hold against Nyquist .. he is the class here.

so I'll point to one blemish, and that is O'Neill.   look, I like the guy, and I dig his style.  just a certain air swirls around that dude ... grasping here, sure ...

but there's virtually nothing else to pop Nyquist on 
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Pedigree could be better but I think but California Chrome didn't have the strongest and he turned out to be a pretty good horse.  On paper I think he looks to be much the best but if he's close to any kind of hot pace I think he's gonna have a tough time holding off the cavalry

I wont be putting any win bets down at 3-1 and for the sake of my exotics I hope he misses the board, but I certainly cant leave him out and wont be at all surprised if he wears the roses

 
General Malaise said:
Have you guys seen the Santa Anita Derby from this year?  Holy crap!
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I watched all the major preps this year and came away with Exaggerator as my favorite based both on the dominance and style of victory. Seems like he can hang back, avoid trouble, and close from deep. Perfect style IMO for the way this race is setting up. 

Anyone think this was a matter of sloppy track and has anyone seen a forecast for the next couple of days in KY? 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
I watched all the major preps this year and came away with Exaggerator as my favorite based both on the dominance and style of victory. Seems like he can hang back, avoid trouble, and close from deep. Perfect style IMO for the way this race is setting up. 

Anyone think this was a matter of sloppy track and has anyone seen a forecast for the next couple of days in KY? 
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I like him better the more off the track the better, but even on a dry track he has the kick as long as there is a fair pace in front of him.

weather: http://www.courier-journal.com/story/entertainment/events/kentucky-derby/2016/05/05/heres-your-derby-oaks-weather-forecast/83966044/

 
Dan Lambskin said:
here's my thoughts...will come up with the Super High 5 later

Trojan Nation – don't think the rail really hurts him since he’s a deep closer and should just drop back. hard to see his first ever win being in the Kentucky Derby as a 50-1 shot with an inexperienced jockey.  Pedigree seems suited for distance.  Speed figures have shown some minor progression but don't seem good enough.  Don't really see myself using him but as a late runner at long odds could be worth putting in the super if we expect a pace meltdown

Suddenbreakingnews – another deep closer that shouldn't be impacted by a post close to the rail.  Despite him only having 1 win in the prep races I like that he was able to close from 14th to win Southwest with a pretty moderate pace.  Looks like he should have no problem getting the distance.  He made up a lot of ground in his other preps as well…certainly think he’s got a shot to win it passing tired horses in that long stretch.  Don't necessarily want to key on him because I could see him getting his run going too late and missing the board, but I do think he should be all over the tickets.  Inexperienced Jock/Trainer is a bit of a red flag as well.  Steady progression in speed figs too so no reason he cant put up a 100+ fig to win this

Creator – yet another deep closer near the rail…do they all try to drop back, or does one of them get forced to mid pack?  He has a 2nd here so that's always a good sign that he took to the track.  Pretty much can say the same thing I’ve said about the other closers.  Pedigree is interesting…cant say id be thrilled backing a Tapit making a late run at 10f but dam side is classy as hell.  Don't know much about jock but stats are good as Asmussen a solid trainer.  100 Bris last out and I believe announcer says “looks like Creator wont get there” on after the turn and he ends up turning it on and getting it done.  Not really sure what I want to do with him, don't think I  can outright toss him but not sure how hard I want to play him either

Mo Tom – oh look another deep closer.  Has a win and a show here at Churchill.  Speed figs seem to have plateaued in mid 90’s.  Uncle Mo is another sire that doesn't scream 10f to me…not sure on Dam but Dam Sire AWD only 7f.  does look like he’s found trouble in all his Fair Grounds races which I can go either way on “hey if he gets a clean trip maybe he can do some damage” or “hmmm…has a propensity for finding trouble and now he’s close to the rail in a 20 horse field”.  Inclined to toss but I guess he could find a way to get a piece.  Cant play them all though

Gun Runner – finally an off the pace type horse.  Fairly lightly raced and speed figs keep going up.  Won both preps at FG, not sure how good that competition is though.  Jock also an unknown to me.  Has Candy Ride had any kind of success in Derby?  Doesn't look like it although Shared Belief was a hell of a horse in his short time.  Did break his maiden here.  Coming off a pretty long layoff too.  Not finding much to be a fan of so certainly not going to fight for him but if others like him I wont talk them out of putting him on the ticket

My Man Sam – deep closer, solid jock/trainer combo, only has 1 stakes race under his belt.  Trappe Shot sprinter out of Tapit I believe, right?  Don't see much to be excited about here and doubt we can play every closer underneath.  I guess I keep him under consideration but another one I’m not fighting for

Oscar Nominated – can always count on the Ramsey’s putting in a horse with no shot to win.  I think he’s severely outclassed here and an easy toss IMO.  I guess one positive is that he shouldn't mind the distance and is 50-1, but I cant see spending the money to include him

Lani – I think Mike Watchmaker says every year “the first UAE Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby will be at my expense”.  I tend to agree.  Toss

Destin – in general I don't really respect Tampa Bay preps all that much, but he did put up some of the best speed figs among these and should be forwardly placed, so if there is a softer pace he should get a good crack at it.  Pletcher Derby record isn’t exactly stellar and while Giants Causeway is a pretty decent sire I seem to recall Storm Cat lineage not faring very well in Derby for whatever reason but I guess he is  great-grandsire of American Pharoah so there’s that.  CASTELLANO one of the better jocks in the biz.  Don't really like him for the win but I could see him getting a piece.

Whitmore – I’m kind of intrigued by him.  Gets probably the best TC Jock of the last few years, although i’m pretty sure the horses had quite a bit to do with those wins so I’m not sure that’s worth as much as it will be made out to be by the media and it looks like this is his first time riding him.  Has a win here but doesn't have any Stakes wins and is another late runner that hasn't been able to quite get there in his other races.  Speed figs are climbing up.  Not sure the middle post position is great for him either…could see him getting gobbled up and racing mid pack rather than far back.  hard to back him over the other Oaklawn closers but at 20-1 I’m inclinced to play him to pick up a piece

Exaggerator – there’s a lot to like here.  Speed figs best in the field, lot of racing experience, Curlin solid sire (although seems to produce some late bloomers), racing style should put him in good position if he gets a clean trip.  What does give me some pause is that 3 of his best wins 2 are in the slop and one was a 7f sprint.  His only stakes race on a fast track as a 3 year old was the San Felipe where he wasn't able to get it done (does look like he had some mild trouble but drifted in the stretch as well).  The pro’s certainly outweigh the cons and I think you have to play him all over, but there’s enough concern where I’m not sure he should be keyed on

Tom's Ready – couple wins here is nice…looks to be more of a midpack closer than deep closer but I just don't think he’s good enough to really get a piece here. Inclined to toss

Nyquist – well he’s undefeated and only real question mark I have is can he get the distance.  Probably wants to be at or near the lead but BC Juvenile win he was able to overcome some trouble and still get it done.  I don't see any way you can leave him off the ticket but certainly can see a scenario where a hot pace keeps him from hitting the board.  As a 3-1 favorite I’d like to see him off the board but have to make sure he’s covered

Mohaymen – really torn on what to do with him.  Some of the better speed figs and only has one loss.  Seems like his works are good although that’s just looking at numbers and not any actual first hand accounts.  Tapit as a sire certainly gives me pause but again on talent he’s simply better than most of these.  Good trip and soft pace I can see him getting a piece or even winning…bad trip hot pace probably misses the board.  I probably feel dumb leaving him off and having him get a big piece so I think I’ve got to find a way to make room for him

Outwork – think this is one I’m taking a stand against.  Pletcher, Wood Winners have been less than impressive, Uncle Mo as sire.  He’s gonna be near the lead but looked like he was all out to hold of an 80-1 shot in the Wood and let Destin pass him in Tampa Bay.  I just don't see him holding off what I think are more talented front runners and some pretty game late closers.  If he hits the board I’m probably ripping up all my tickets unless I somehow decide to leave him in for 3rd…wouldn't have a problem dropping him if ticket gets to costly

Shagaf – I respect him even less than Outwork.  Outside post should help him avoid trouble and settle into whatever position he wants to run in but if he gets hung wide I don't see him being a factor and even with a good trip I don't think he will be.  I’ll take the approach that if he hits the board he can have my money

Mor Spirit – there’s quote a bit to like here.  Baffert is one of the best at getting the most out of a Derby horse (although he has his misses for sure).  Gary Stevens past his prime but still a HOF jockey.  Seems to be working well and while I’m not sure on ability to get the distance I think he’ll be in a good position turning for home.  If you like Exaggerator I think you have to like him.  Inclined to play all over

Majesto – another horse I’m intrigued by, especially at 30-1.  Sire was a gutsy classic winner so not too concerned there.  Lot of unknowns with him and took him 5 tries to break his maiden but did go on to finish 2nd in Florida Derby (although once Moyhamen fizzled “someone had to finish 2nd” seems to be the general sentiment around him).  Not gonna fight too hard for him but post and running style should keep him out of trouble to at least give him a chance to make some noise (and some nice show payoffs if he hits)

Brody's Cause – one of many deep closers but most of the others are all on the inside, so he definitely shouldn’t find any trouble settling into the back.  has a maiden win here but looking at his body of work I just don't think he’s good enough to be a factor.  I guess there’s a chance he get’s up for a piece but going to be hard to make room for him

Danzing Candy – one of the few front runners in this field I’m guessing he makes a beeline for the rail and goes as far as he can.  I think he may have the highest fig in the field when he wired the San Felipe over a few horses I really like, but I don't think he’s good enough to wire this field at 10f (assuming someone at least goes with him).  I think he’s the likely pace setter and probably a key factor in how the whole race is run.  If he goes blazing fast like Mike Smith did on Palace Malice it probably sets up for some closer to bring it home.  If he goes slower it’s probably one of the horses just off the pace.  So with all that said I think 4th at best
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Solid work DL, As always.  Logic tells me that with DC on the outside the pace has to be fast.  Smith has only one shot, and that's to get to the lead from the 20 hole.  They know they have no chance at rating so whatever it takes to get to the lead including 44 and change they will do it.  Everything in my DNA says stay away from Moyahmen.  If they back up at 1 1/8, can't play them at 1 1/4.  What's gnawing at me is the one time it hurt me was the Barbaro race, when I threw out Bluegrass Cat in 2nd (had 5 others in the 2nd slot), Had Steppenwolfer and Jazil 3rd and 4th.  $10 tri's and $5 supers.  Cost me at least a quarter million.  So, can Mohaymen bounce back? Doubtful.  Nyquist was just toying with him when Moyahmen came up.  Kent D says Nyquist just refuses to get passed.

I wish Exaggerator wasn't the first to load.  Loved his SA race, slop and all.  Hope break doesn't take him out of it.  I do like many of the longshot closers you mentioned. Nyquist will lug out.  So it's Nyquist, Exaggerator making a move to his outside if the break doesn't cost him, and then the bombs coming up the inside.  I'll play Nyquist with several of the bombs in a least a few exotics. 1-2-3 and Majesto.   Finding the right closers who will come on the rail in the stretch will be the key to $ this year.  Even if Nyquist wins. Which one, or ones?

 
How do you guys bet superfectas in a huge race like this?  Do you bet, say, 5 boxes of 4 horses or one box with 5 horses?

 
WampusCat43 said:
How do you guys bet superfectas in a huge race like this?  Do you bet, say, 5 boxes of 4 horses or one box with 5 horses?
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I usually play it with my buddies and we agree on a key horse

Basically well have multiple tickets that look like
1/2 3/ 2 3 4 5 /  2 3 4 5 6 7
 2 3 / 1 /  2 3 4 5 /  2 3 4 5 6 7
Etc

sometimes well key on 2 horses in case our key totally misses or just have some sort of backup wheel ticket

granted our $1 tickets end up costing a few racks but we hit in 2011 (animal kingdom) for like $24K.  Hit last year and lost money :bag:

i know my buddy hit big brown year too...think they had $1200 and won about $30k

weve been pretty right about our keys other than 2012 (granted orb in 2013 and AP last year were the favorites in those years, wicked strong 2 years ago) but have missed the 2nd place horse those years

 
Dan Lambskin said:
I usually play it with my buddies and we agree on a key horse

Basically well have multiple tickets that look like
1/2 3/ 2 3 4 5 /  2 3 4 5 6 7
 2 3 / 1 /  2 3 4 5 /  2 3 4 5 6 7
Etc

sometimes well key on 2 horses in case our key totally misses or just have some sort of backup wheel ticket

granted our $1 tickets end up costing a few racks but we hit in 2011 (animal kingdom) for like $24K.  Hit last year and lost money :bag:

i know my buddy hit big brown year too...think they had $1200 and won about $30k

weve been pretty right about our keys other than 2012 (granted orb in 2013 and AP last year were the favorites in those years, wicked strong 2 years ago) but have missed the 2nd place horse those years
Click to expand...
What is one horse you feel will hit the board? I usually bet the dogs but play the horses a couple times a year. I use the same strategy when it comes to the dogs, I usually key a dog and play a bunch off of it. So if you had to pick one horse to hit the board who are you going with (besides Nyquist)?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
JShare87 said:
What is one horse you feel will hit the board? I usually bet the dogs but play the horses a couple times a year. I use the same strategy when it comes to the dogs, I usually key a dog and play a bunch off of it. So if you had to pick one horse to hit the board who are you going with (besides Nyquist)?
Click to expand...
My amateur opinion- Gun Runner

 
JShare87 said:
What is one horse you feel will hit the board? I usually bet the dogs but play the horses a couple times a year. I use the same strategy when it comes to the dogs, I usually key a dog and play a bunch off of it. So if you had to pick one horse to hit the board who are you going with (besides Nyquist)?
Click to expand...
I'm still trying to figure that out

right now leaning between Mor Spirit, Suddenbreakingnews, and Exaggerator

 
Judge Smails said:
I wish Exaggerator wasn't the first to load.  Loved his SA race, slop and all.  Hope break doesn't take him out of it.  
Click to expand...
Not being a front runner helps #11 a little if he does miss the break but I don't want a 19 horse wall in front of him either.

Key question: If one of the 10 horses to the inside of him scratch does he now load last out of the 10 hole?

 
Last year after reading this thread, hit a 5 horse  $1 Tri Box.  Looking to do the same this year.  This is what I got so far, Nyquist, Exaggerator, Sudden..., Mor Sprit, and Mohaymen.  I know I won't hit the bank, but I'll have some fun.  Any horses you guys would change up in this box?

 
I'm a donator every year and it looks like it will be more of the same.  I have no clue how to bet the trifecta, but always place and lose it anyway.  So here it goes again.  $1 tri wheel

9, 11, 13 / 5, 8, 9, 11, 13, 17 / 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17

Help me out here.  I know this is probably a bad way to go about placing the bet and I'm including too many, but I'm not experienced enough to know what to change or how to fix it.  Any advice is greatly appreciated!   :bag:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
JShare87 said:
What is one horse you feel will hit the board? I usually bet the dogs but play the horses a couple times a year. I use the same strategy when it comes to the dogs, I usually key a dog and play a bunch off of it. So if you had to pick one horse to hit the board who are you going with (besides Nyquist)?
Click to expand...
11

 
JShare87 said:
What is one horse you feel will hit the board? I usually bet the dogs but play the horses a couple times a year. I use the same strategy when it comes to the dogs, I usually key a dog and play a bunch off of it. So if you had to pick one horse to hit the board who are you going with (besides Nyquist)?
Click to expand...
Really liking 3, 9 and 11 this year in no particular order. Pretty wide open and there's at least three or four others I also like in exactas/tris/supers this year.

I do think that it'll be a closer's year this year, partly because of the quantity of them this year (which means I'm not exactly going on a limb here), partly because of the length of race, and partly because of the possibility of afternoon rain before the race.

 
Just got to the Oaks. Aaron Rodgers is sitting 25 feet from us. 

I will update the title. 

 
Dan Lambskin said:
I usually play it with my buddies and we agree on a key horse

Basically well have multiple tickets that look like
1/2 3/ 2 3 4 5 /  2 3 4 5 6 7
 2 3 / 1 /  2 3 4 5 /  2 3 4 5 6 7
Etc

sometimes well key on 2 horses in case our key totally misses or just have some sort of backup wheel ticket

granted our $1 tickets end up costing a few racks but we hit in 2011 (animal kingdom) for like $24K.  Hit last year and lost money :bag:

i know my buddy hit big brown year too...think they had $1200 and won about $30k

weve been pretty right about our keys other than 2012 (granted orb in 2013 and AP last year were the favorites in those years, wicked strong 2 years ago) but have missed the 2nd place horse those years
Click to expand...
Just because I'm dumb as a doorknob - in the first example you're picking one horse to win, one of two to come in second, one of four to come in third, etc.?  The second example you have two horses to win, one to finish second...

 
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