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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)

Went with a $1.00 TRI Box - 6,9,11,13,14. That's it. I'd rather have one losing ticket than the 10 I normally have on Derby Day.

 
I woulda been all over the #20 if he had a decent post.  Not a good set up for the 37 closers in the race imo

-QG

 
Gun-Runner ran a good, ground-saving race, & was all out, eyeball-to-eyeball, with Nyquist, & still no match...& Nyquist still held off Exaggerator's late, unseen outside run...that's class.  Reminded me of the Preakness/Derby(?) stretch duel between Free House & Silver Charm... where Charm held off Free House to his inside, & then Captain Bodgit's late outside run.  Class.

 
I missed the race and walked in as they were interviewing the trainer I believe and my wife goes the favorite won.  She looks up at the TV and says in a sort of statement/question "This horse has won the last 8 Derby's".  I just said "Yea, quite a record.  Now cook my dinner"

 
Baloney Sandwich said:
I missed the race and walked in as they were interviewing the trainer I believe and my wife goes the favorite won.  She looks up at the TV and says in a sort of statement/question "This horse has won the last 8 Derby's".  I just said "Yea, quite a record.  Now cook my dinner"
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Just wait until 2 weeks for now when she says: "wow, he won the last 8 Derbys and the last 9 Preaknesses."

 
Played a $10 tri box 11-13-2. At a track and couldn't tell who got up for 3rd. Seemingly interminable wait to see if I was cashing a 4 figure ticket or wiping my ### with it. 

Sphincter is spotless. 

 
That moment when you nail the win, place, and exacta and STILL owe money to the bookie. :kicksrock:

All good, though. Nyquist helped me take home $250 after walking in with $75, so you can never ##### when you take home more than you walked in with when it comes to horse betting.

 
Had a $50 exacta box with Nyquist and Exaggerator.  $750 or so, not bad, so close on $5 tri's with those two to the 14 and 2  Didn't have Gunrunner.  No matter what it wouldn't have been a big payday but would have been nice to have the tri.  Man - EG, that $10 tri box.  Wow.  That woulda PAID.  I gave Mohayman another shot and he did run well.  Still, undercard was brutal for me and ended up losing a few hundred for the day.  Exaggerator is the only visible threat for the triple crown right now, Kent said if he didn't check he would have caught Nyquist but on the gallop out Nyquist was far in front.  Never asked.  Kent's only shot IMO is the Preakness.  Hate deep closers in the Belmont.  

 
SuddenBreakingNews was 2nd to last going into the far turn when he started his move(late into the turn), he went outside then back inside onto the rail, down the stretch he angled outside and came on strong and just missed coming in 3rd at the wire while ending up 5th  Another few yards and he gets 3rd, he passed 15 horses in 2+ to 3 furlongs and came within a head of passing 17 of them.  Granted it was a very fast pace and he was on the rail and only had to angle wide while in the stretch but I'd like to see him skip the Preakness and be fully rested vs a smaller Belmont field where there should be less traffic and the question may be whether Nyquist can get 12furlongs?  

 
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Brady Marino said:
That moment when you nail the win, place, and exacta and STILL owe money to the bookie. :kicksrock:

All good, though. Nyquist helped me take home $250 after walking in with $75, so you can never ##### when you take home more than you walked in with when it comes to horse betting.
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This was everyone I know yesterday after the race.  Everyone had longshot plays and insured it with the chalk.   Chalk won.

 
irishidiot said:
Thoughts on the Preakness?
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There's nothing to suggest anything other than Nyquist winning again. The Belmont is a whole different story and I agree with the others who already posted that Exaggerator gobbles up Nyquist down the stretch and wins.

 
Stradivari is interesting...obviously a huge step up in class, but the numbers seem to indicate he can handle it.  Pletcher is good with rested horses too.

I was won over by Nyquist at the Derby.  Hot pace and he still had enough in the tank at the end.  Without that pace, I'm not sure Exaggerator gets anywhere close to him. Exaggerator is now 0-4 heads up against Nyquist...

 
Prince Myshkin said:
Stradivari is interesting...obviously a huge step up in class, but the numbers seem to indicate he can handle it.  Pletcher is good with rested horses too.

I was won over by Nyquist at the Derby.  Hot pace and he still had enough in the tank at the end.  Without that pace, I'm not sure Exaggerator gets anywhere close to him. Exaggerator is now 0-4 heads up against Nyquist...
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True but at 1 1/2 miles the Belmont is a whole different beast than any of those other races. IMO here are the two questions for that 3rd TC race.

1) What will be the pace? The extra distance benefits Exaggerator more than Nyquist but only if it's a fast pace.

2) Exaggerator was closing the gap on Nyquist but the question is was Nyquist cruising (i.e. did he still have another gear) or was he digging deep to finish? If he was cruising then the distance/pace might not really matter.

Money will all be on Nyquist (and rightfully so) but I'm hoping that the pace is fast and if so the finish should be very interesting.

 
Really surprised Exaggerator is running in this one.  Thought for sure they would skip this one and point him towards the Belmont.  What do I know? 

 
General Malaise said:
Really surprised Exaggerator is running in this one.  Thought for sure they would skip this one and point him towards the Belmont.  What do I know? 
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Agreed. I don't see him catching Nyquist in the Preakness but as I mentioned above I think he has a shot at the Belmont. If they would have skipped the Preakness his chances would have been even greater.

 
Hard to get past the chalk 3-5 exactor, but just about anything can run 3rd or 4th. Interesting that not a single horse has ever run on this track.

 
Willie Neslon said:
There's a sports gambling documentary that came out a few weeks ago called The Best Of It. I watched on Amazon, enjoyed it.

One of the subjects of the documentary, Dink, is featured here in an article about horse racing and this year's Derby. Really good read.
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Yes, the Dink article WAS a very good read.   Even pro gamblers have a hard time of it.   quick story:  On a FFootball website- I go to other sports-see opinions on Kentucky Derby(three yrs ago?).  California Chrome won that year.  Anyway I take some banter from the opinions & bet about $200(planned to spend $70) spread throughout exactas, etc. based on a few guys reports.   Didn't know what I was doing in that some trifectas boxed don't mean $2.00 so I was betting more than thought.   Won $17,400.00.   Been betting since on the triple crown races at $200 each race.   Going to take them a long time to get that $17K back.  Yes, I got paid.

 
Outside of Nyquist & Exaggerator I think Cheery Wine & Uncle Lino have a good shot to hit the board.

 
Cheery Wine for the off track... new faces used to fare well in the Preakness, (especially horses that could rate) before the points system was installed.  I'm seeing a lot of Louis Quatorze in Cheery Wine, contingent on the track being off.   Why not?

 
Prince Myshkin said:
Don't see the pace being faster than the derby
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There are a lot of early speed type horses (much more so than in derby)...good chance one of them just goes crazy and we get pace meltdown (well a chance anyway)

if that happens I think Cherry Wine or the 7 or 10 have a shot (sorry don't recall name at the moment). Of course exaggerator will be closing hard too

i do like the 11 Stradavarious too...speed figs are increasing nicely

i don't think any of the other speed horses are good enough to win though so IMO It's Nyqist for the win or one of the others I listed  above

could see an uneventful 3-5-1-11 super or something like that

 
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