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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)

Dan Lambskin said:
There are a lot of early speed type horses (much more so than in derby)...good chance one of them just goes crazy and we get pace meltdown (well a chance anyway)

if that happens I think Cherry Wine or the 7 or 10 have a shot (sorry don't recall name at the moment). Of course exaggerator will be closing hard too

i do like the 11 Stradavarious too...speed figs are increasing nicely

i don't think any of the other speed horses are good enough to win though so IMO It's Nyqist for the win or one of the others I listed  above

could see an uneventful 3-5-1-11 super or something like that
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22.58 and 45.72 is not exactly slow-poking around the track.  In fact, those are faster fractions than any of the other horses entered tomorrow have run in a 2 turn race. I guess somebody could go nuts, but that is pretty much what Danzig Candy tried and it didn't seem to phase Nyqvist much.   

 
Dan Lambskin said:
There are a lot of early speed type horses (much more so than in derby)...good chance one of them just goes crazy and we get pace meltdown (well a chance anyway)

if that happens I think Cherry Wine or the 7 or 10 have a shot (sorry don't recall name at the moment). Of course exaggerator will be closing hard too

i do like the 11 Stradavarious too...speed figs are increasing nicely

i don't think any of the other speed horses are good enough to win though so IMO It's Nyqist for the win or one of the others I listed  above

could see an uneventful 3-5-1-11 super or something like that
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You may have the super down cold.  There are a number of tosses in this race.  Personally, I think the top 2 are 3-4 lengths clear.  Cherry Wine coming at the 11 for 3rd.  I'll play a $100 exacta box (not a great bet, more for entertainment) and tri's/supers keying Cherry Wine.  Hoping to beat the Pletcher horse as that combo won't pay much.

Another comment - for all of those who keep saying Exaggerator in the Belmont because he's a closer many bettors have been sent to the poor house with that approach.  While you have to be a stayer and get the distance coming from way off it is not the typical win profile in the Belmont.  Slower pace up front, harder to close as they all stagger home.  I like Exaggerator tomorrow but will take a stand against if he comes back in the Belmont.

 
Just hoping Nyqvist doesn't win and ruin all the payouts.  Any other horse winning, even 2nd favorite Exaggerator would produce some nice payouts.  Everybody and their mother is keying Nyquist up top, so if he doesn't win gonna be sweet payouts.

going to do a 7 horse superfecta box with the top 7 horses odds wise.  Will of course have Nyqvist in it, but payouts will be big if he doesn't get 1st, especially if a 10 to 20-1 pulls out the victory.

Here's praying for a super wet track to make it interesting.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
Just hoping Nyqvist doesn't win and ruin all the payouts.  Any other horse winning, even 2nd favorite Exaggerator would produce some nice payouts.  Everybody and their mother is keying Nyquist up top, so if he doesn't win gonna be sweet payouts.

going to do a 7 horse superfecta box with the top 7 horses odds wise.  Will of course have Nyqvist in it, but payouts will be big if he doesn't get 1st, especially if a 10 to 20-1 pulls out the victory.

Here's praying for a super wet track to make it interesting.
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If you're planning to hit big with Nyquist not winning why not just leave him out of the bet? You will not get your money back from a 7 horse box if Nyquist finishes 1 or 2 imo. 

 
$80k just came in on Stradivari, knocking Nyquist back to 5/2. not sure if those odds will hold up come post time, but someone thinks speed on the outside can carry it today.

i'm going with TBX 3,5,1,2,

 
I'm at a wedding. What time is post, so I can slip away to the next door bar? 

TIA, fellas.

 
$60 TRi 3-5-11

$20 SUPR 3-5-11-7

$5 SUPR 11-3-5-7

$10 SUPR PW 3/5/11/1,2,6,7,10 ($50)

$5 SUPR PW 3/5/1,11/1,2,6,7,10,11 ($50)

$4 SUPR PW 3/11/5/1,2,6,7,10 ($40)

$10 SUPR 11/3/5/1,2,6,7,10 ($50)

$5 SUPR 3/5/7,11/1,2,6,7,10,11 ($50)

$5 SUPR 3//11/5/1,2,6,7,10 ($25)

$350 TOTAL WAGER

 
Was gonna go with $1 exacta box and $1 tri box with 1-3-5-7-11 for $80.  Chickened out and threw out the 7.  Did $2 atb on 5.  so in for $42.

-QG

 
Wow, great run by Exaggerator. Inside, then outside, and boom!

 
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Congrats to those that played Exaggerator heavy today. He owned the rail and got the perfect run. I just hope his owner gives a cut to the Uncle Lino owner because I think Lino made Nyquist exert so much, he had nothing down the stretch.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
There are a lot of early speed type horses (much more so than in derby)...good chance one of them just goes crazy and we get pace meltdown (well a chance anyway)

if that happens I think Cherry Wine or the 7 or 10 have a shot (sorry don't recall name at the moment). Of course exaggerator will be closing hard too

i do like the 11 Stradavarious too...speed figs are increasing nicely

i don't think any of the other speed horses are good enough to win though so IMO It's Nyqist for the win or one of the others I listed  above

could see an uneventful 3-5-1-11 super or something like that
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You are very smart and I am not intelligent

 
BroncoFreak_2K3 said:
:coffee:
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I was about to post another line about me being stupid, but then I looked at the numbers...

Ky Derby - 22.58, 45.72 and 110.40

Preakness - 22.38, 46.56 and 111.97

Certainly looked as if they were working harder for those fractions though.  Could have been the track or the trip -- Nyquist was about 4 wide most of the race

 
After watching replays of both races, I'm not sure why Gutierrez didn't let Uncle Limo go like he did Danzig Candy in the Derby. Maybe the horse just wouldn't let him, but it sure seemed like the best play was to settle in and if the leader wanted to run off a few lengths, so be it.  

 
Brady Marino said:
Third. Some angry Exacta betters today.
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You don't know the half of it.  I liked 3 horses.  Exaggerator, Nyquist, Cherry Wine. Thought the first 2 were far the class of the field and the Cherry Wine the only closer, who also liked the off track.  It was so cold to me.  Played $100 exacta box 3-5, $25 trifectas 3-5/3-5/1, and $1 supers 3-5/3-5/1/all and same with 1 in the 4th spot.  Had a lousy $10 exacta saver bet 5-1.  Got back $440something, but I think it would have been about 2K if Nyquist held on for 2nd.  Lost 200 for the day.  Don't think Nyquist cared for the track at all, never accelerated, never opened up, had a tough time putting away Uncle Lino, and he never saw the 1.  11 ran commendable.

Nyquist will skip the Belmont for sure.  Might be ripe for a new shooter..

Congrats to any who believed big in Exaggerator and cashed.

 
Prince Myshkin said:
I was about to post another line about me being stupid, but then I looked at the numbers...

Ky Derby - 22.58, 45.72 and 110.40

Preakness - 22.38, 46.56 and 111.97

Certainly looked as if they were working harder for those fractions though.  Could have been the track or the trip -- Nyquist was about 4 wide most of the race
Click to expand...
Sure, the entire race pace was a bit slower, given the muddy track for one, but first that 1/4 pace was very quick and it was enough to do him in IMO.  He had nothing left at the half pole

 
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Enjoyed the race, but for the record was incredibly annoyed that only 3 of the 11 horses were from the Derby.  I don't even begin to understand this sport.

It's like if you're watching your favorite NFL team and then all of the sudden the next week only 3 of the 22 starters from last week play and everyone else came from the practice squad.

Who would watch that?    Why can't they pick a field of people who are interested in running all 3 races.. is it that hard?

As an aside that people's party looked rocking on TV and there appeared to be a lot of drunk decent looking young ladies ready to unsheath their breasts

 
Dentist said:
Enjoyed the race, but for the record was incredibly annoyed that only 3 of the 11 horses were from the Derby.  I don't even begin to understand this sport.

It's like if you're watching your favorite NFL team and then all of the sudden the next week only 3 of the 22 starters from last week play and everyone else came from the practice squad.

Who would watch that?    Why can't they pick a field of people who are interested in running all 3 races.. is it that hard?

As an aside that people's party looked rocking on TV and there appeared to be a lot of drunk decent looking young ladies ready to unsheath their breasts
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It costs a lot of money to ship these horses and enter them in these races.  They go where they think they can win $.

An example.. you, Dentist, are a competitive eater.  You go to the local Nathan's 4th of July qualifier in the nearest city to your home and eat 22 hot dogs in 10 minutes.  You come in 2nd and fail to qualify by 1/2 a hot dog.  You're bummed.  You want to hear your name called by that maniac in the straw hat on ESPN on July 4th.

2 weeks after your failed attempt, there's a qualifier in Los Angeles.  It will cost you about $1,000 in airfare and hotels to get there in order to participate.  Joey Chestnut is participating as well, this is his home qualifier.  You know that the only chance you have of getting to Nathan's this way is if Chestnut is himself eaten by a shark prior to the competition. 2 weeks after that, there's a qualifier that's a 6 hour drive from your home.  Last year, a guy won this qualifier with 16 hot dogs eaten and ended up on the big stage on Surf Ave.  Is there any chance you're flying to LA to compete next week?  Of course not.

That's what these guys are doing, they're putting their horses in the best spot to win.  They couldn't give a rat's ### that Dentist wants to see the same horses three races in a row.  That schedule is rough on the horses.  They're protecting their investment, not trying to draw the casual fan to the sport.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
It costs a lot of money to ship these horses and enter them in these races.  They go where they think they can win $.

An example.. you, Dentist, are a competitive eater.  You go to the local Nathan's 4th of July qualifier in the nearest city to your home and eat 22 hot dogs in 10 minutes.  You come in 2nd and fail to qualify by 1/2 a hot dog.  You're bummed.  You want to hear your name called by that maniac in the straw hat on ESPN on July 4th.

2 weeks after your failed attempt, there's a qualifier in Los Angeles.  It will cost you about $1,000 in airfare and hotels to get there in order to participate.  Joey Chestnut is participating as well, this is his home qualifier.  You know that the only chance you have of getting to Nathan's this way is if Chestnut is himself eaten by a shark prior to the competition. 2 weeks after that, there's a qualifier that's a 6 hour drive from your home.  Last year, a guy won this qualifier with 16 hot dogs eaten and ended up on the big stage on Surf Ave.  Is there any chance you're flying to LA to compete next week?  Of course not.

That's what these guys are doing, they're putting their horses in the best spot to win.  They couldn't give a rat's ### that Dentist wants to see the same horses three races in a row.  That schedule is rough on the horses.  They're protecting their investment, not trying to draw the casual fan to the sport.
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ok,  I understand that.     Now, having said all that.   1) these people are super-rich...  is the transportation costs really that prohibitive when it's by bus a few states away?

2)  Why did several of these horses even bother entering the race anyway?    After Exaggerator and Nyquist, they were all heavy dogs unlikely to land the top 3...  so why even participate at all?   Are you telling me these horses were locally good around the Baltimore area and decided to give it a whirl since the costs weren't that prohibitive?

3) what do you guys know about this $12 million dollar pegasus race?  Now that sounds like the bees knees.   That type of race should draw the best of the best... bring out American Pharoah,  bring out California Chrome...  let's get it on..   I really like the sound of that type of race.

 
The board's most notorious well-monied penny pincher is questioning the sound financial decision making of other rich guys?  That's, uh, rich.

Also, Cherry Wine - new horse - was 2nd in the Preakness.  It happens.  It's called "intrigue".

 
General Malaise said:
The board's most notorious well-monied penny pincher is questioning the sound financial decision making of other rich guys?  That's, uh, rich.

Also, Cherry Wine - new horse - was 2nd in the Preakness.  It happens.  It's called "intrigue".
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It's more like I want a contract in place, you race the derby, you're committed to the other events barring injury, that's all.

Kind of like having to buy a season ticket package to have preferred seating in the playoffs

 
Dentist said:
ok,  I understand that.     Now, having said all that.   1) these people are super-rich...  is the transportation costs really that prohibitive when it's by bus a few states away?

2)  Why did several of these horses even bother entering the race anyway?    After Exaggerator and Nyquist, they were all heavy dogs unlikely to land the top 3...  so why even participate at all?   Are you telling me these horses were locally good around the Baltimore area and decided to give it a whirl since the costs weren't that prohibitive?

3) what do you guys know about this $12 million dollar pegasus race?  Now that sounds like the bees knees.   That type of race should draw the best of the best... bring out American Pharoah,  bring out California Chrome...  let's get it on..   I really like the sound of that type of race.
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1) Not ALL horse owners are super rich.  Many are, but not all.  And it isn't just transportation costs, it's also the cost to enter the race (I think the Preakness cost $30,000 to enter this year), the risk of the horse getting injured running back after 2 weeks (look up stud fees for TC horses and you'll see why they don't want to risk the horse breaking a leg by overworking him,) and other considerations.

2) A lot of times you'll see "new shooters" in the race because trainers that may not have qualified or pointed their horses to the Derby think they have a shot at the Preakness against tired Derby holdovers.  Sometimes horses that ran in the Derby will run again in the Preakness because the owner/trainer don't think the horse can get the very long 1 1/2 mile distance at the Belmont and they think their horse can pull an upset at 1 3/16.  Most times, horses that come up short at Churchill and Pimlico aren't going to be running the Belmont.

 
Dentist said:
It's more like I want a contract in place, you race the derby, you're committed to the other events barring injury, that's all.

Kind of like having to buy a season ticket package to have preferred seating in the playoffs
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I'm not sure why you care if the horse that finished 16th in the Derby runs in the Preakness or not.  I would rather see fresh horses take a shot at the Derby winner.  The Triple Crown is SUPPOSED to be hard to win.

 
Easy guys.  Dentist also harps annually about why can't 4 year olds and up run in the Kentucky Derby.  You are wasting your time.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
1) Not ALL horse owners are super rich.  Many are, but not all.  And it isn't just transportation costs, it's also the cost to enter the race (I think the Preakness cost $30,000 to enter this year), the risk of the horse getting injured running back after 2 weeks (look up stud fees for TC horses and you'll see why they don't want to risk the horse breaking a leg by overworking him,) and other considerations.

2) A lot of times you'll see "new shooters" in the race because trainers that may not have qualified or pointed their horses to the Derby think they have a shot at the Preakness against tired Derby holdovers.  Sometimes horses that ran in the Derby will run again in the Preakness because the owner/trainer don't think the horse can get the very long 1 1/2 mile distance at the Belmont and they think their horse can pull an upset at 1 3/16.  Most times, horses that come up short at Churchill and Pimlico aren't going to be running the Belmont.
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I guess I need to just accept that this is less a racing circuit like Nascar or something, and a lot more random...  there's a lot more to consider I guess than.. can you run fast... it's an entire business and that business doesn't necessarily align with what in my opinion the public would like to see out of a horse racing circuit.

 
Judge Smails said:
Easy guys.  Dentist also harps annually about why can't 4 year olds and up run in the Kentucky Derby.  You are wasting your time.
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I could design a horse racing circuit in about an hour that would sell a hell of a lot better than the product they are putting out there.   This is a potentially cool sport that could really resonate with a lot of people if you could just redesign it and put the same horses in enough consecutive races that they became household names and create some dynasties.

People like what's familiar, and if they never get to see the same horses from one race to the next let alone one season to the next, you never give the public a chance to get behind anyone.

I suppose if somehow you could make it more about the jockies, or the owners and turned them into household names that could draw more people in... but I really think it's more about the horses.

 
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